The present political situation in Pakistan is of particular interest. The so called Memogate, which is in the run in a newspapers and political circles which happened almost half a year ago is getting a very, I would say, dangerous turn. In my personal opinion the Memogate is an attempt by Americans, who sponsored Mr. Zardari and Mr. Gilani, through these fellows like American businessmen of Pakistani origin Mr. Ijaz and Pakistani former Ambassador to Washington Mr. Haqqani. It was sponsored on the real nod on the part of American Administration to start the whole business.

It is a source, it is a variant of Arab Spring. But it quite understandable why – because Pakistan is military strong power, it is a nuclear power and secondly Pakistan is a vital country for American withdrawal from Afghanistan. So, they had to act as if they were not present, as if something happened by the initiation of local politicians. In fact I’m quite sure that the sign “go” was given by Americans and Zardari and Gilani were very much in the know about this memoir which was given to Mr. Mullen – former head of Chiefs of Staff.

But what was the idea behind it?

The idea was to get the military under control totally in order to arrange the smooth operation of withdrawal and smoother operations for the Americans inside Pakistan of which the military are not very fond of, because the attack on Osama bin Laden and his killing really shocked the military establishment. And we have to admit – there are some people, nationally minded people. And the military establishment though most of them studied in the United States and Britain but they are nationally minded people and for them it was a sort of humiliation through which they had to go.

The main enemy of the Pakistani military – the Vice-President of the United States Mr. Biden right from the beginning, after the assumption of power, was really skeptical and really against the military of Pakistan. And we have now a very precarious situation, because with the rather clumsy actions of Mr. Zardari and Gilani, they have created politically explosive situation and Pakistani military don’t want to give them credit, after several coups and dictatorship they have learned that another coup will be out of place and they are not going to be supported by the population.

So, they acted in a very clever, totally judicial way of trying to get rid of Mr. Gilani, and the final aim of the military is to get rid of Mr. Zardari. Zardari is extremely vulnerable person, because he is a well know corruptionist and really the fate of Zardari is I think is under a big question.

So, we have a very particular situation developing – the attempt at this stage by Americans and local pro-American forces failed. And we have to take into account that the Chief of Staff of the Pakistani Army Mr. Kiyani, he was extended on two years and he is also in a very difficult situation, because his temporal office is going to end this year, and military have think how are they going to proceed, because there is an evident attempt by Americans and local so called democrats, if we can say so, to get rid of the military and put them under control.

So, the situation still remains very explosive, but we have to admit that the military, they act very clearly, in a very balanced way. At the moment I feel that they are gaining the upper hand. The only thing here, you see, they have to work against different kinds of forces, and people speak now about the elections and every chance is for Mr. Nawaz Sharief – leader of Muslim League and who could gain the upper hand. But we should not forget that Mr. Sharief is very close to Saudi Arabia ruling family. Saudi Arabia ruling family saved Mr. Sharief, because he tried to get rid of military and that’s why it led to Pervez Musharraf dictatorship.

The game is multi-sided, extremely complicated and we have to expect events unraveling with a high speed and it is a situation to watch. It is a situation in which Americans could take preventive actions, they would try to press the military to the pressures of the Americans and to the pressures of the certain political forces in Pakistan who are basically owe Americans so much for their existence.

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