Archive for March, 2024

Brig(Retd)Asif Haroon Raja 

A large cache of arms has been seized by the Coast Guards from Jimny near the Mekran Coast along Baluchistan. The arms were being smuggled from Iran to Pakistan. An important leader of Zainabun has been arrested. 

The Panjgur incident and our reaction in Saravan in Iran are still fresh in our minds. Fence mending was done quickly and both sides assured to be prudent and promised to coexist as brotherly neighbours. The latest incident has blown apart our hopes of a peaceful and friendly southern border. 

It is time for our policy makers to take a second look at the existing ground realities and the changed security paradigm, and accordingly frame our threat perception and security responses. 

Internal Threats

Currently, Pakistan is internally facing the threat of resurgent terrorism in KP and Baluchistan, heightened political polarization and hatred, political instability, social divisions, economy at the edge of default, heavy burden of foreign and public debts and fifth generation war. 

These negatives have bred insecurity and uncertainty, which hinders future attempts to improve the economy and to draw in foreign investments.

There are too many snakes in the grass chipping the foundations of the country and are helping the enemies to create a gulf between the army and the people with the ultimate aim of weakening the first and last line of defence. Never before has Pakistan suffered from so many crises at one time. 

The coalition of six parties cobbled together are not natural allies and have so far shown little signs of placing national interests above their own selfish interests. They are more interested in getting plum portfolios than in pulling the sunk economy out of the quagmire, and to face the external threats collectively. The recent performance of PDM 1 during its 16 months rule, was deplorable and is one reason which deprived PML N from gaining simple majority in the Centre. 

Balochistan Districts

Map of Panjgur District

The great majority of the elected MNAs and MPAs are big landlords, industrialists, businessmen and senior advocates and most are above fifty years old. 

Since no reforms of the institutions have been carried out, little is expected from the old hats who have been bathing in the polluted tub for the last 25 years. All are deeply infected by feudal mindset and in corrupt practices. 

Both the mainstream parties, PPP and PML N, failed to alleviate poverty, and to better the lives of the marginalized. Out of the two, the performance of PML N under NS was comparatively better and had some feathers in their cap but was far from idealism. 

The 3rd party experiment was a disaster. The PTI leadership is refusing to accept the hard reality that it was owing to its poor performance, which helped the PDM to make their vote of no confidence successful. It is still resentful and revengeful.

The PTI is in no mood to change its negative tactics of defiance, confrontation, violence and is vying to make Pakistan bankrupt and to go to dogs merely to regain power. 

For the icon, all those who abuse and make noise and resort to high handed tactics are his favourites. Peace lovers are sidelined. Chairman PTI Barrister Gohar who is less volatile and remains within the decent limits, survived by the skin of his teeth because of noise made by the media. 

The anti-army and anti-state journalists and U-tubers sitting abroad and inside the country spewing venom are the ideals and favourites of the cult followers. 

The ones bitten by cultish culture, have torn apart the social fabric of the society and made the youth violence prone and reckless. They are still living in the fools paradise of Haqiqi Azadi. 

For the myopic cult leader and his mind cloned followers, breaking the coercive hold of the military over politics and the country is the only way out to make Pakistan independent and prosperous. 

Instead of showing the mirror to the policy makers and pumping them to avenge the humiliating defeat of 1971,  the tunnel visioned cult followers are politicising it to gain political mileage. They are again and again reminding the Army that Pakistan will suffer a similar debacle if PTI is deprived of the throne. 

To shame the Pakistani leadership, they are glorifying fascist India and fascist Bangladesh and are turning a blind eye to the ruthless persecution and lynching of the Indian Muslims and other minorities in India and in IOK, and the ruthless crushing of all political parties in BD. In BD there is one party rule. 

Who will save 24 crore Pakistanis from the wrath of Indian military forces if the centre of gravity resting in GHQ gets enfeebled? 

Will the cult followers pick up arms against them for the defence of the motherland and to safeguard the honour of women? If they had so much jihadism in them, wouldn’t it have been better to show it by crossing the LoC and marching up to Sri Nagar to liberate IOK? 5 Aug 2019 was the right time to give a call of Jihad.

But we know what sort of response came from Pakistan. Those real jihadis who wanted to go across the LoC were forcibly restrained and told to register a protest by remaining silent on each Friday for 30 minutes.

The PTI has chalked out its future plans which will be based on battles inside and outside the parliament, together with legal and court battles and supplemented with media war with a view to paralyse the coalition govt and prevent it from undertaking reforms and development work. It started its campaign with charges of rigging, irregularities, Form 45, and airing fake figures of victories. It claimed 180 NA seats but filed petitions for only 35 seats. It is seeking help from the US , EU, UK, IMF and the Pak expats. Social media and foreign funding are the major tools in the arsenal of PTI. Probably the last card has been played by President Alvi by refusing to call the session of the NA. The outgoing Speaker has however decided to call the session. 

External Challenges

India’s Unabated Hostility

Coming to the external threat perception, our Eastern border has been and will remain perpetually hostile. After annexing IOK and absorbing it fully into the Indian Union, fascist Modi and his hawkish team have repeatedly vowed to break Pakistan into four parts and have openly talked of a limited war in AJK and GB. Modi’s next ambition in his 4th term will be to annex the whole of J&K. 

India has been using multiprong offensives in the form of hybrid war, proxy war, cultural war, water terrorism, coercion, economic terrorism, and to strategically encircle and isolate Pakistan. 

India is eagerly looking forward to an opportunity to launch its Cold Start Doctrine to damage Pakistan. Owing to its strategic partnership with the US, NATO and Israel, its enhanced political, diplomatic, economic and military strengths, it is in a comfortable position to flex its military muscles to intimidate Pakistan and to unfold its military adventure. Indian media openly stated that IK was the best gift for India since he did what India couldn’t achieve in the last 75 years.

Afghanistan’s Hostility

Our western border that has remained hostile from 1947 onwards, except for brief spells of harmony, has once again become turbulent because of TTA-TTP alliance and return of Indian influence in Afghanistan. 

Action against the TTP, return of illegal Afghan refugees and strict border management have further angered the Kabul regime. So far, there is little hope for the betterment of our relationship. The worrisome aspect is TTP-PTI alignment duly backed by Afghanistan. 

Iran’s Unfriendliness

Pakistan was aware that RAW was using the Iranian soil as an auxiliary base for cross border terrorism during the 20-year war on terror, but it remained quiet because of volatility on its eastern and western borders. We ignored the hard fact that India and Iran were strategic and defence partners and both had supported Afghan Northern Alliance. 

We didn’t make noise even after arresting an Indian RAW agent Kalbushan in 2016 who had been operating from Chahbahar since 2003 and had spilled the beans. 

We knew that the Baloch rebel groups were using Iranian Baluchistan as their base of operations against Baluchistan and Karachi and that IRGC was supervising their activities. We had to build a fence along our southern border like we did in the northwest. But terrorism and supply of arms through the border and from the Mekran coast is still continuing. 

Pakistan Choked

It implies that our southern border is also hostile, which has left Pakistan with no breathing space. It is being choked from three directions while the internal enemies are giving full support to them to accomplish their objectives. 

Efforts to Scuttle CPEC

From 2016 onwards, a wilful campaign was launched to undermine CPEC, which our enemies knew that it had the potential to make Pakistan economically self-reliant. China was equated with the East India Company. The drama of Chinese marrying Pakistani girls for sexual trade was enacted. China’s human rights in Xinjiang against the Chinese Muslims was drummed up. Political parties were taken on board to scuttle the project. Terrorist acts along the corridor were intensified. 

Despite these vile efforts to disrupt CPEC and to spoil China-Pakistan relations, phase one projects were completed in record time of three years, but the detractors were eventually successful in freezing the game changing project in 2018. Phase 2 projects are still in limbo. 

Duplicitous USA

The double dealing USA has never been a friend of Pakistan and it has always used Pakistan as a rentier state to accomplish its regional objectives. 

The US has all along favoured India and undermined Pakistan’s core security concerns.

Policy of Appeasement 

Well knowing the duality and insincerity of the US, our leaders, both civil and military, have remained subservient to its commands and have harmed national interests for the sake of dollars and to remain in power. 

It was because of this factor of obedience to Washington that Pakistan has been following a policy of one-sided appeasement, even with our sworn enemies and refrained from building a counter narrative to expose the fake narratives of India and occupied Afghanistan that the two were victims of terrorism and that Pakistan was the nursery of terrorism. 

Where We Went Wrong?

By now, we should have learnt lessons that our policy makers were poor in making the difference between friends and foes. It was a folly to put all our eggs into the basket of dual-faced USA and thus making Pakistan wholly dependent upon the domineering USA. 

We all know that the gates of Pakistan were opened for the FBI and CIA in 2002 to chase Al Qaeda, which enabled the two to form a big intelligence network in Pakistan by 2008. This network has penetrated into each and every department and segments of Pakistan. Our vulnerabilities are being exploited by our enemies to further weaken us from within. 

Our policy makers trusted the US to the extent that they asked Donald Trump to meditate and resolve the Kashmir dispute. CPEC was frozen to please the US and IMF, and put Pakistan’s ironclad relations with China in jeopardy. 

The US in collaboration with India have been playing a game of snake and ladder and never allowed Pakistan to take off economically. Dr Danielle Marke revealed the hidden truth in his book ‘No Exit from Pakistan’, that way back in 1954, the US policy makers had decided to keep Pakistan engaged due to its geostrategic location, but to keep it controlled and managed. For the latter, India ensured that Pakistan was kept on the tenterhooks by keeping it politically unstable. 

Apart from the three major wars and several conflicts and standoffs with India, and facing constant subversive threats from India in the three less developed provinces, coupled with the bellicosity of Afghanistan, the US used Pakistan as its rentier state for thirty years to fight its wars in Afghanistan. 

Outwardly, Pakistan was the most allied ally, but in actuality it was the most sanctioned country. FATF and IMF are some of the tools to browbeat Pakistan. 

The US has been cultivating Pakistani political leaders, bureaucrats, generals and the media to keep Pakistan under its thumb. 

Our leaders must be clear that under no circumstances the US would annoy India to please Pakistan, but would happily undermine Pakistan’s core interests to benefit India. 

Let us be clear that IK’s drama of Haqiqi Azadi was not from the US, but from the Pak Army. Similarly, Shabaz Sharif, Bilawal and Zardari are appeasers and pro USA. 

Way Forward

Pakistan stands on a slippery slope and can no more afford to indulge in futile infighting, senseless tug of war, emotionalism, divisive politics, strained civil-military relations, blaming each other, propaganda war, believing in Messiahs or in miracles. Making Pakistan chaotic and anarchic is not the medicine to cure Pakistan afflicted with multiple diseases. 

What is needed is to put aside our imagined or genuine grievances against each other, cool down our tempers, heal the youth and divert them towards constructive channels through better education, motivation, job opportunities, equitable social growth and justice system. 

We should concentrate wholly towards reforming our decayed systems and institutions, carry forward the already prepared economic uplift program under SIFC established in GHQ whole heartedly and with total dedication, honesty and sincerity of purpose, bridle the poisonous media badmouthing Pakistan and Pak Army and to reform it, tackle the mischief makers and spoilers with an iron hand, shun lavishness and VIP culture, enforce austerity, reduce and possibly get rid of IMF. 

We should stop taking dictations from Washington, lean towards China and Russia that are pro-peace and believe in the concept of shared development, and the Arab Gulf States that have promised heavy foreign investments. All out efforts must be made to complete the phase 2 of CPEC.

Education must be given higher priority to improve literacy and to refurbish school curriculum to improve our values, ethics and moral turpitude that have hit rock bottom. 

These steps are not unachievable, but are very much achievable if there is complete understanding between the rulers, army and the people. 

Above all, there should be across the board accountability under apolitical accountability mechanism and the justice system should be overhauled. The rule of law must be strictly enforced. 

While we can doubt the ability and capacity of the PDM 2 coalition to sail Pakistan out of choppy waters towards the shores of stability and prosperity, however, we can say that Gen Asim Munir is not a toady and  boot licker of the US. He could be our only hope to rid Pakistan of its slavish dependence upon the USA. 

So let us pray for his wellbeing and his  commitment, and make our contributions in helping him to defeat the nefarious designs of enemies of Pakistan at home and abroad. It is he who has the dexterity and willpower to push the cart of wobbly PDM 2, and to overcome all the hurdles and to make Pakistan strong and self-sufficient.

The writer is retd Brig Gen, war veteran, defence, security and political analyst, international columnist, author of five books, ex chairman Thinkers Forum Pakistan, takes part in TV talk shows . asifharoonraja@gmail.com