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Posted by admin in Afghan -Taliban-India Axis, AFGHANISTAN BASED RAW TRAINED TALIBAN ACTIONS, Afghanistan Hell, Afghanistan-Land of Backstabbers, CROSS BORDER KILLINGS BY INDIA, EXISTENTIAL THREAT TO INDIA, India Hall of Shame, India's Nuclear Proliferation, INDIA-AN EVIL NATION, INDIA-HO-- -- USE BUILT ON SAND AND COW DUNG, INDIA: THE EVIL HINDU EMPIRE, INDIAN AGENT NAWAZ SHARIF:FREE ARY, INDIAN ARMY CHIEF-TOKENISM TO APPEASE SIKH MINORITY, INDIAN GOVTS LIES EXPOSED, INDIAN SABRE RATTLING BITS THE DUST, INDIAN SCAMMERS AROUND THE GLOBE, INDIAN TERRORISM FROM CENTRAL ASIAN REPUBLICS, Makaar Dushman, Politics, Recent News on October 29th, 2014
Gambling against Armageddon
By
Munir Akram, former Pakistan ambassador to the UN |
IN an opinion piece last year, Henry Kissinger observed that over the next couple of decades a nuclear war was likely to take place between India and Pakistan. The nuclear factor was in play in four major and one minor India-Pakistan crises: in 1987, 1990, 1998, 1999 and 2002.In 1987, when an Indian army chief launched the Brasstacks military exercises along Pakistan’s exposed desert borders, Pakistan responded by deploying its forces in the north where India was vulnerable. Prime minister Rajiv Gandhi’s agreement to a mutual stand-down no doubt also took into account the informal threat from Islamabad to bomb India’s nuclear reactors in case Pakistan was attacked. (After the crisis ended, the Pakistan-India agreement not to attack each other’s nuclear facilities was jointly formulated in one day.)In January 1990, when the anti-Indian insurgency erupted in Kashmir and India threatened Pakistan, a conflict was forestalled by US intervention. The US acted when it learnt that Pakistan had begun to arm its nuclear-capable aircraft.
The operation of mutual deterrence between India and Pakistan is being eroded.
During the night of 26-27 May 1998 — the night before Pakistan conducted its nuclear explosions in response to India’s tests — Pakistani radar detected unidentified aircraft flying towards its territory. Islamabad issued warnings of instant retaliation to India and relayed these to the US and Israel. This may have been a false alarm; but it illustrates the danger of accidental conflict in the absence of real-time communications.During the 1999 Kargil war, the nuclear dimension was implicit, given that the crisis occurred a year after the India-Pakistan nuclear tests.During the 2002 general mobilisation by India and Pakistan, the director general of the Pakistan Armed Forces Special Plans Division enunciated its nuclear ‘doctrine’ in a news interview. The ‘doctrine’ envisaged that Pakistan would use nuclear weapons if: it was being militarily overwhelmed; its nuclear or strategic weapons or facilities were attacked; and it was subjected to an enemy blockade.The projection of this doctrine, including at a UN news conference by this writer in July 2002, sparked a fall in the Indian Stock Exchange, the evacuation of foreign personnel and embassy families from New Delhi and a demarche by Indian business leaders to prime minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, and reportedly led to the Indian agreement for a mutual drawback of forces.The operation of mutual deterrence displayed in 2002, however, is being eroded by several developments.One, the conventional military balance is becoming progressively unfavourable to Pakistan. India is engaged in a major arms build-up. It is the world’s largest arms importer today. It is deploying advanced and offensive land, air and sea weapons systems. Pakistan’s conventional capabilities may not prove sufficient to deter or halt an Indian attack.Two, India has adopted the Cold Start doctrine envisaging a rapid strike against Pakistan. This would prevent Pakistan from mobilising its conventional defence and thus lower the threshold at which Pakistan may have to rely on nuclear deterrence.Three, Pakistan has had to deploy over 150,000 troops on the western border due to its involvement in the cross-border counterterrorism campaign in Afghanistan, reducing its conventional defence capacity against India.Four, the acquisition of foreign nuclear plants and fuel, made possible by the Indo-US civilian nuclear cooperation agreement, will enable India to enlarge its nuclear weapons stockpile significantly. To maintain nuclear balance, Pakistan has accelerated production of fissile materials. Both nuclear arsenals are now large and growing.Five, given its growing conventional disadvantage, and India’s pre-emptive war fighting doctrine, Pakistan has been obliged to deploy a larger number of nuclear-capable missiles, including so-called ‘theatre’ or tactical nuclear-capable missiles. The nuclear ‘threshold’ is now much lower.Six, the Kashmir dispute — once described by former US president Bill Clinton as a nuclear flashpoint — continues to fester. Another insurgency is likely to erupt, certainly if the Bharatiya Janata Party government goes ahead with its platform promise to abrogate Article 370 of the Indian constitution (which accords special status to Jammu & Kashmir). A renewed Kashmiri insurgency will evoke Indian accusations against Pakistan and unleash another Indo-Pakistan crisis.Seven, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has obviously decided to adopt an aggressive posture towards Pakistan, no doubt to appeal to his hard-line Hindu constituency. The recent ceasefire violations along the Line of Control are an ominous indication of such belligerency.Eight, India is reportedly involved in supporting the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan and the Baloch Liberation Army to destabilise Pakistan internally.Nine, India has terminated the ‘composite dialogue’ with Pakistan. Its precondition for talks — an “absence of violence” — is impossible for Pakistan to meet.Ten, the US and other major powers evince little interest in addressing the combustible mix of live disputes, terrorist threats, conventional arms imbalance and nuclear weapons in South Asia.During the parallel dialogue initiated by the US with Pakistan and India following their 1998 nuclear explosions, Pakistan proposed a ‘strategic restraint regime’ with India which would include mechanisms to resolve disputes, including Kashmir; preserve a conventional arms balance and promote mutual nuclear and missile restraint.India rejected the concept of a mutual restraint regime.The US at first agreed to consider Pakistan’s proposal. However, as their talks with India transitioned from restricting India’s nuclear programme to building a “strategic partnership” (against China), the Americans de-hyphenated policy towards Pakistan and India, opened the doors to building India’s conventional and nuclear capabilities and disavowed any interest in the Kashmir dispute. Currently, Indian belligerence is bolstered by US pressure on Pakistan to halt fissile material production and reverse the deployment of theatre nuclear-capable missiles.If a South Asian Armageddon is to be prevented, it is essential to build a structure of stable deterrence between India and Pakistan and find ways to deal with Kashmir and other outstanding disputes. Reviving consideration of a strategic restraint regime would be a good place to start.The writer is a former Pakistan ambassador to the UN.
Posted by admin in INDIA EXPOSED, INDIA FRAUD, INDIA IMAGE SPIN MASTERS, INDIA MACHINATIONS TO DESTROY CHINA, INDIA SPONSORED TERRORISM IN KARACHI, INDIA STATE SPONSORED TERRORISM IN PAKISTAN, INDIA TRAINED SUICIDE BOMBERS FROM AFGHANISTAN, India Training Suicide Bombers in FATA, INDIA'S CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY, India's Guru Scam, INDIA'TREACHERY IN BANGLADESH 1971, INDIAN ARMY CHIEF-TOKENISM TO APPEASE SIKH MINORITY, INDIAN GOVTS LIES EXPOSED, INDIAN SABRE RATTLING BITS THE DUST, INDIAN SCAMMERS AROUND THE GLOBE, INDOPHILE NAWAZ SHARIF, INEPT INDIAN NAVY on April 22nd, 2014
Posted by admin in INDIA -US ENCIRCLEMENT OF CHINA, India -US Joint Export to Pakistan: Terrorism, INDIA EXPOSED, INDIA IMAGE SPIN MASTERS, INDIA MACHINATIONS TO DESTROY CHINA, India Secessionist Movements, India Splitting, India Sponsored Taliban Terrorism in Pakistan, INDIA SPONSORED TERRORISM IN KARACHI, INDIA STATE SPONSORED TERRORISM IN PAKISTAN, INDIA TRAINED SUICIDE BOMBERS FROM AFGHANISTAN, India Training Suicide Bombers in FATA, INDIA' NUCLEAR DUDS, INDIA: THE EVIL HINDU EMPIRE, INDIAN AGENT NAWAZ SHARIF:FREE ARY, INDIAN ARMY CHIEF-TOKENISM TO APPEASE SIKH MINORITY, INDIAN GOVTS LIES EXPOSED, INDIAN SABRE RATTLING BITS THE DUST, INDIAN SCAMMERS AROUND THE GLOBE, INDIAN TERRORISM FROM CENTRAL ASIAN REPUBLICS, INDOPHILE NAWAZ SHARIF on December 10th, 2013
Threat by Indian PM
By
Inam Khawaja
The Indian Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh stated on 4, December 2013; “There is no scope of Pakistan winning any such war in my lifetime,” he told reporters in New Delhi, reported Press Trust of India. This statement was in response to Nawaz Sharif’s statement “Kashmir is a flashpoint and can trigger a fourth war between the two nuclear powers at anytime.”
Nawaz Sharif was only pointing out the facts. No one can deny that Kashmir dispute is not a flashpoint nor can one ignore the horrors of a nuclear war. In fact he has always been in favour of peace and improving relations with India; immediately after winning the elections in May he invited Manmohan Singh but was rebuffed.
The history of negotiations between these two neighbours from 1947 to date clearly shows that they have been unable to improve the relations and solve any of the problems souring their relations. The basic impediment is the fact that the successive generations of Indians do not accept an independent Pakistan and continue to strive for “Akhand Bharat”. They don’t seem to tire of saying; “We are one”, “We have a common culture” and so on, totally ignoring the fact that Muslim literature, music, art, architecture, dress and cuisine are poles apart and has nothing in common with the Hindu literature (even the scripts are totally different) art, architecture, dress and cuisine are totally different even the method of serving food is different.
The Indian media continues to harp upon the same old theme. The fact is that the Indian leaders even after sixty six years consider the establishment of Pakistan a great tragedy. Jaswant Singh in his book states;
“There are some other to my mind, equally important aspects of this great tragedy of India’s Partition deserving our reflection. Did not this Partition of India, vivisecting the land and its people question the very identity of India itself.” (Page 6 & 7, Jinnah India-Partition Independence by Jaswant Singh, 2009)
For Jaswant Singh and almost all Indians even today the partition of British India was a mistake and a great tragedy. In fact the real tragedy is that Indians cannot seem to get out of this mindset of “Akhand Bharat”.
In December 2001 India mobilized bulk of their forces on Pakistan’s borders in Punjab, Rajasthan and Indian occupied Kashmir. After ten months of eye ball to eye ball confrontation Indians withdrew realising the danger of it developing in a nuclear war. As a result of the failure of this massive confrontation the Indian Army developed the Cold Start Doctrine and officially unveiled it on 28, April 2004 at the Army Commander’s Conference. Since then Indians have held over a dozen exercises to operationally debugthe doctrine. It may be noted that the Cold Start Doctrine is Pakistan specific.
In 2011the head quarters of their Strike Force and Rapid Force were shifted from Central India to Punjab a requirement of Cold Start Doctrine. Today over seventy percent of Indian Army and Air Force are mobilised against Pakistan.
Once again Pakistan has suggested the demilitarisation of Siachin. The effect of the military occupation of Siachin is having a very grave climatic effect on the glacier. It needs to be remembered that in 1984 India moved their forces in Siachin which until that time was unoccupied and in pristine condition. The majority of people in Pakistan are in favour of peace and demilitarisation of Siachin. We call upon the peace lovers and environmentalists in India to take up the cause of peace and saving the Siachin Glacier from the detrimental effect of military occupation.