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Posted by admin in India -US Joint Export to Pakistan: Terrorism, India Backstabbing US, India Destroying Quietly US Economy, India Destroys US Economy, India Sponsored Taliban Terrorism in Pakistan, INDIA SPONSORED TERRORISM IN KARACHI, INDIA STATE SPONSORED TERRORISM IN PAKISTAN, INDIA TRAINED SUICIDE BOMBERS FROM AFGHANISTAN, India Training Suicide Bombers in FATA, INDIA' NUCLEAR DUDS, INDIA'S ANTI-PAKISTAN TOXIC PROPAGANDA, INDIA'S CASTEISM, INDIA'TREACHERY IN BANGLADESH 1971, INDIA-AN EVIL NATION, INDIA-HO-- -- USE BUILT ON SAND AND COW DUNG, INDIA: THE EVIL HINDU EMPIRE, INDIAN AGENT NAWAZ SHARIF:FREE ARY, INDIAN GOVTS LIES EXPOSED on February 24th, 2016
Since the leader of the ruling party BJP Narendra Modi became Prime Minister of India, various developments like unprecedented rise of Hindu extremism, persecution of minorities, forced conversions of other religious minorities into Hindus, ban on beef and cow slaughter, inclusion of Hindu religious books in curriculum, creation of war-like situation with Pakistan, unprovoked firing at the Line of Control in Kashmir and Working Boundary across Pak-Indian border clearly show that encouraged by the fundamentalist rulers, Hindu extremist outfits such as BJP, RSS VHP, Bajrang Dal and Shiv Sena including other similar parties have been promoting religious and ethnic chauvinism in India by propagating ideology of Hindutva (Hindu nationalism) which has become genesis of India’s offensive-defensive doctrine.
As part of its offensive-defensive doctrine, New Delhi is destabilizing Afghanistan—all regional states, while its major focus has always been towards Pakistan, a policy of weakening Pakistan. In this regard, double game is particularly part of India’s offensive-defensive doctrine.
In fact, Ajit Doval, the ex-spymaster who is now National Security Advisor of Indian Prime Minister Modi is the real author and controller of India’s offensive-defensive doctrine.
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It is notable that on January, 20, this year, at least 21 persons were killed at Bacha Khan University in Khyber Pakhtunkha’s Charsadda town, when heavily-armed terrorists of the banned Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) entered the university and opened fire on them. Reliable sources disclosed that Indian consulate located in Jalalabad, Afghanistan played a key role in targeting the Bacha Khan University. The operatives of the Indian secret agency, RAW in connivance with Rahmatullah Nabil, the former director of Afghan intelligence agency, National Directorate of Security (NDS) and the TTP chief Mullah Fazlullah planned this assault. Indian consulate gave rupees 3 million to the Talban commander to arrange this brutal act at the university. Ajit Doval directed this attack.
While, the Army Public School Peshawar—carnage incident resulted in killing of more than 140 children. It was also carried out by Ajit Doval’s stooges in connivance with the TTP, as he is fond of manipulating radicalized proxies.
In order to implement Indian offensive-defensive doctrine, Ajit Doval also advise to arrange various terror attacks and to shift the blame game to Pakistan. In this respect, on January 2, this year, a terror attack at Indian Air Force Base in Pathankot was preplanned under his directions. Without any investigation and evidence, since the first day of the incident, Indian media and top civil and military officials claimed that the attackers had arrived from Pakistani Punjab’s Bahawalpur district, and had links with Jaish-e-Mohammad and Pakistan’s primary intelligence agency, Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). But, despite Islamabad’s cooperation in the joint investigation, New Delhi failed in providing any proof of Pakistan’s involvement in the Pathankot incident. India orchestrated that drama to postpone secretary-level talks with Pakistan, scheduled to be held in Islamabad on January 15, 2016.
Nevertheless, India is not serious in advancing Pak-India dialogue process, agreed upon between the two countries during Indian Prime Minister Modi’s recent visit to Pakistan. Under the cover of Pathankot episode, New Delhi wanted to postpone the secretary-level parleys as part of its delaying tactics in settling various issues, especially the Kashmir dispute with Islamabad.
As mater of fact, like other past episodes, as part of Doval’s offensive-defensive doctrine, Indian intelligence agencies, especially RAW have themselves arranged terror attacks at the Pathankot airbase including some other terror incidents to fulfil a number of anti-Pakistan designs.
As regards the case of cross-border terrorism, India has shown ambivalent approach which can be judged from some other developments. In this connection, on July 27, 2015, three gunmen dressed in army uniforms killed at least seven people, including three civilians and four policemen in the Indian district of Gurdaspur, Punjab. Without any investigation, Indian high officials and media started accusing Pakistan, its banned militant outfits and intelligence agencies for the Gurdaspur incident. Indian Police remarked that the attackers were from Indian-held Kashmir, and some said that they were Sikh separatists, while Indian Punjab police chief claimed that the three gunmen were Muslim, but as yet unidentified. Contradicting speculations, India’s Home Minister Rajnath Singh told parliament that the gunmen came from Pakistan.
Khalistan Movement Chief Manmohan Singh stated that the Gurdaspur incident is “a conspiracy of Indian secret agency RAW to defame Pakistan.”
Notably, on December 31, 2014, prior to the US President Obama’s second visit to New Delhi, Indian intelligence agencies orchestrated a boat drama to defame Pakistan, allegedly reporting that a Pakistani fishing boat as a Pakistan-based outfit group Lashkar-e-Taiba was intercepted by Indian Coast Guards, off the coast of Porebandar, Gujarat. And Indian Coast Guard crew set the boat on fire and it exploded. The Indian government had claimed that it had foiled another 26/11-type attack of Mumbai. But, its reality exposed Indian terrorism, when some Indian high officials admitted that there was no such boat which came from Pakistan.
As regards Afghanistan, India is playing a double game in accordance with the offensive-defensive doctrine of Ajit Doval. RAW has well-established its network in Afghanistan and is in connivance with the TTP and Islamic State group (ISIS or Daesh). On January 13, 2015, at least seven personal of the Afghan security forces died during the suicide attack which targeted the Pakistani consulate in Jalalabad. ISIS claimed responsibility for the terror assault.
The attack, which coincided with efforts to restart the stalled peace process with Taliban insurgents and ease diplomatic tensions between India and Pakistan, added a dangerous new element to Afghanistan’s volatile security mix. In this context, delegates from Afghanistan, Pakistan, China and the United States had met to try to resurrect efforts to end nearly 15 years of bloodshed in Afghanistan. However, we need to know the real peace disruptors in Afghanistan.
In this respect, in the recent past, cordial relations were established between Pakistan and Afghanistan when Afghan President Ghani had realized that Afghanistan and Pakistan were facing similar challenges of terrorism and would combat this threat collectively.
While, it is misfortune that on direction of New Delhi and like the former regime of Afghan President Hamid Karzai, Afghanistan’s present rulers have also started accusing Pakistan of cross-border terrorism. In this context, after hours of the Taliban captured Kunduz city, on September 28, 2015, during his address to the UNO General Assembly, Afghanistan’s chief executive Abdullah Abdullah blamed Islamabad for carrying out cross-border attacks and destabilizing Afghanistan.
Differences exist between chief executive Abdullah Abdullah and President Ashraf Ghani, as the former wants cordial relations with New Delhi at the cost of Afghanistan and the latter prefers Islamabad, because Pak-Afghan stability is interrelated.
It is mentionable that on December 10, President Ghani accepted the resignation of Rahmatullah Nabil as director of the Afghan intelligence agency, NDS, after developing differences of the spymaster with him over Ghani’s move to attend the regional conference in Islamabad.
And Prime Minister Sharif and President Ghani also showed their determination that their countries would cooperate in fighting the threat of ISIS.
As the US is playing double game with Islamabad, because it is the only nuclear country in the Islamic World, which irritates America and Israel. Hence, secret agents of American CIA, Israeli Mossad and Indian RAW which are well-penetrated in ISIS are making efforts to weaken Tibetan regions of China, Iran and especially Pakistan’s province of Balochistan by arranging the subversive activities, promoting acrimonious sense of dissent, political volatility, sectarian violence and arousing sentiments of separatism.
Here, it is of particular attention that the foreign-backed Baloch separatist leader, Manan Baloch, the secretary general of the Baloch National Movement and number 2 of the Balochistan Liberation Front was killed by the security forces on January 30, 2016. It is a great achievement, as on the directions of his external handlers, Manan was criticizing the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and was provoking the Baloch people against this agreement.
Again, in case of Afghanistan, there are several groups of Al-Qaeda, ISIS and Taliban like the TTP. Some of them are being used by secret agencies like CIA, Mossad and RAW to obtain the collective and individual designs of their countries against Pakistan and Middle Eastern countries. India and Israel which want to prolong the stay of the US-led NATO troops in Afghanistan which have become the center of covert activities, are exploiting their dual policy, especially of America against Pakistan, China and Iran. Particularly, terrorists of TTP which are strategic assets of the CIA, RAW and Mossad have claimed responsibility for several terror attacks inside Pakistan, including the recent ones in Balochistan, Karachi and in Afghanistan.
In fact, in collusion with Afghanistan’s NDS, particularly, RAW has set up its secret network in Afghanistan, and is fully assisting cross-border incursions and terror-activities in various regions of Pakistan through Baloch separatist elements and anti-Pakistan groups like Baluchistan Liberation Army (BLA), Jundullah (God’s soldiers) and TTP.
It is an undeniable fact that Ajit Doval’s cronies are creating law and order problems in Balochistan. Doval in his recent lecture clearly threatened that Islamabad will lose Balochistan—a video is a clear confession by India that it is behind the separatists in the province of Balochistan and has a huge network of its operatives against the state of Pakistan.
Particularly, Indian nexus with TTP leaders like Hakimullah Masood and Mulla Fazalullah has been proved by the recent revelation of the TTP militant Latifullah Mahsood regarding the incident of Army Public School Peshawar and exploitation of Baloch sub-nationalists. It has also exposed Ajeet Doval’s offensive-defensive doctrine—anti-Pakistan statements of India’s BJP leadership, while pointing out that New Delhi is the main spoiler of peace in Afghanistan, and is still manipulating the militants of TTP, ISIS, ETIM etc. against Pakistan, China and Afghanistan.
It is misfortune that with the start of 2016, frequency of terrorist incidents has increased manifold in Afghanistan, indicating the frustration of the spoiler (India), after her proxies were uprooted from Pakistani soil. Moreover, Afghan people also feel wary of protracted proxy warfare, strife and lawlessness in their country and are desirous for peace. But, India does not want it.
Besides, Indian media has created frenzy and volley of allegations against Pakistan. It is a true reflection of Indian establishment and Hindu mindset which are intolerant to any improvement in the bilateral relations between both neighboring countries.
Nonetheless, if not checked in time by the US-led western powers, India’s offensive-defensive doctrine will destabilize Pakistan and Afghanistan including the whole region, jeopardizing the political and economic interests of America and NATO countries which demand stability and peace in the region.
Sajjad Shaukat writes on international affairs and is author of the book: US vs Islamic Militants, Invisible Balance of Power: Dangerous Shift in International Relations
Email: sajjad_logic@yahoo.com
At that time, in 1994, the price of oil was $18/barrel and the rupee was at 28/$. The agreed price of furnace oil was fixed at Rs5,000/tonne with any escalation as a pass through item giving an electricity unit rate at Rs1.8/unit. By 2007 the price of oil was $120/barrel and the rupee was 100/$, the price of furnace oil increased fifteen fold to Rs75,000/tonne and price of electricity shot to Rs20/unit. As this was unaffordable to most Pakistanis it led to the government subsidising it – resulting in the infamous circular debt and pernicious loadshedding.
By relying on expensive imported fuel, the new LNG deal falls into exactly the same trap. At the agreed price of 13.3 percent of the price of the current price of Brent of $30/barrel, the gas rate works out to be $6/MMBTU. However, if you include all the fuel, port and tolling charges the power rate would be approximately Rs6/unit. But what will happen in a few years or so when, as expected, the price of Brent oil climbs to $100/barrel once the supply and demand for oil is matched (Saudi King Salman is visiting Russia in mid-March to negotiate just that), and the rupee depreciates to 200/$ as may well happen given our rulers predilection for binge borrowing, simultaneously with declining exports. The LNG rate will then be $15/MMBTU and the price of electricity an unaffordable Rs22/unit. But as the LSA is a take or pay we will still be obliged to purchase this unaffordable fuel, just as Wapda was obligated to purchase unaffordable power for oil fired IPPs.
By all accounts there is a gas price war going on. The price of Russian gas in Europe as per the TTF index has declined to an all-time low of $3.3/MMBTU in France and Holland, while the in the US which has been recently allowed export of LNG, the price of gas based on the Henry Hub index is $2/MMBTU (by comparison Pakistan is paying $6/MMBTU for its imported gas).
Even a sophisticated economy like Japan never entered into a Long Sale Agreement for LNG. Instead, it had short-term agreements while it sorted out a long-term energy solution. The PML-N government should have done the same and entered into a three-year agreement or even bought the cargo on the spot market until it sorted out a long-term solution.
If the government was hell-bent on relying on imported fuel, then the most viable alternative was the Iran pipeline. Iran has already offered us this gas at $3/MMBTU (although, for sure we could have negotiated an even better deal). As Iran has already built the pipeline to its border, if a power station were installed in Gwadar or Jiwani where there is access to cooling water, the cost per unit of electricity would not have been more than Rs3.8/unit or almost half of what it costs for imported LNG. Iran can only export gas by pipeline through Turkey or Pakistan, and its exports via Turkey compete with cheap Russian gas. Piped gas is not indexed to Brent and therefore its long-term prices can be better managed. The hurry to sign a $15 billion contract for imported LNG with Qatar just as the sanctions on Iran were lifted is perplexing.
Pakistan has a parliament but its members were either not aware of the facts or chose to stay silent. The entire deal raises serious questions. For example, Qatar only agreed to lower its price after an independent supplier Gunvor quoted a lower price. Further, why was the minimum off take increased from 1.5 million mtpa to 3.75 mtpa, burdening our economy even more? This is normally only done when the deal amount and associated commission is fixed, so if the price decreases the off-take increases proportionately.
The government should stop the false propaganda that LNG will save $1 billion per year. This is as cynical as it is untruthful. In fact for 4,000MW of power as compared with Iranian gas, LNG imported from Qatar will cost the country an extra $800 million per year or $13 billion over a fifteen-year period.
As someone wrote, we seem to exist solely to protect entrenched privileges and continue transference of the country’s resources to the global elite. For our citizens we cannot guarantee social progress, security, decent education, access to healthcare, the opportunity for useful employment or a debt-free life.
The writer is a former federal minister. Email: mh1@ lhr.comsats.net.pk
Posted by admin in " RIAZ THE SHAITAN OF PAKISTAN, "BAHRIA TOWN, Asif Zardari Crook Par Excellance, BOOT THE SCOUNDRELS OR SHOWDAZ, CROOKS, EXPATRIATE PAKISTANIS SPEAK-UP, Gangsta Nawaz & Gullo Kashmiri Butts Gang, Girah Cut, ISHAQ DAR:THIEF OF PUNJAB, KASHMIRI NAWAZ SHARIF & PMLN MNA/MPA KANJAR KHANA, MALIK RIAZ, Nawaz "Badami Lassi Kim Barker Thurke" Sharif, Nawaz 's Dauphin, NAWAZ SHARIF & PROSTITUTES, Nawaz Sharif :Abbaji Da Nikama Puttur.", NAWAZ SHARIF BUZDIL KARGIL BHAGHORA, NAWAZ SHARIF LOAN SCAM, Nawaz Sharif Malcontent, Nawaz Sharif Massive Corruption, NAWAZ SHARIF MUZZLES PRESS, NAWAZ SHARIF SAGA OF ABSOLUTE & CHRONIC CORRUPTION, NAWAZ SHARIF US CIA ASSET IN PAKISTAN, Nawaz Sharif Womanizer, NAWAZ SHARIF'S ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF PAKISTAN, Nawaz Sharif's Petrol Hoarding Money Making Scam, Nawaz Sharif-The Prime Minister from Hell, NAWAZ SHARIF: THE LOOTER, PIA Destruction By Nawaz Sharif, PPP Choor, Rana Sanaulla, RIGGED ELECTION 2013, Serial Killers Nawaz Sharif, Shahbaz Sharif on February 18th, 2016
Posted by admin in Brig (Retd).Asif Haroon Raja's Column, OPINION LEADER on February 18th, 2016
RAW-blog.jpg
General
Afghanistan is connected with South Asia, Middle East and Central Asia. It
shares 1400 km border with Pakistan and its 42% of Afghan Pashtuns share
religious, ethnic, linguistic and cultural ties with 15.2 million Pakistani
Pashtuns. Pashtuns living in close vicinity of Durand Line have blood relations
and the border has never acted as a barrier in their cross border movement.
Pashtuns from both sides have been jointly fighting all foreign invaders and are doing
so even now.
Afghanistan has traditionally remained friendly to distant neighbor India and
unsympathetic to next door Pakistan since 1947. It opposed Pakistan’s membership in
the UN, laid claim on Pakhtun populated areas of Pakistan and raised the stunt of
Pakhtunistan, and also questioned the validity of Durand Line. It has been off and on
carrying out border violations and has been giving shelter to Baloch rebels. The only
time it was friendly with Pakistan and unfriendly with India was during the five-year rule
of Taliban from 1996 till 2001, but the Taliban also refused to recognize Durand Line
and laid claims on Mohmand agency.
Pakistan-Afghanistan relationship has been a prey to differing interests. The two have
never been at ease with each other and deep doubts have persisted in bilateral ties.
Pakistan has never exploited its vulnerability of being land-locked and has considered it
as its natural ally. It played a key role in pushing out Soviet forces from Afghanistan
and has been hosting over 3 million Afghan refugees since 1979. But its wish for a
friendly government in Kabul has never materialized. Pakistan has behaved maturely
despite Afghanistan’s provocations and extended all kinds of support.
Incident of 9/11 Blown up. 9/11 was projected as the biggest catastrophe ever
happened and Al-Qaeda blamed for the vile act. Whole world shed tears of sympathy
and condemned the perpetrators against whom no proofs had been gathered. Force
mobilized to invade the most impoverished, war torn and sanctioned country far
exceeded the threat. Afghanistan was encircled by establishing military bases in
Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan in the north, making Pakistan a coalition
partner and frontline state, taking China, Russia, Iran and Arab world on board and
obtaining UN approval. India offered all out support. War was justified to fight terrorism
but terrorism was never defined.
US Stated Objectives. The US stated objectives of invasion of Afghanistan included:
Rooting out terrorism by killing/capturing Osama bin Laden, disrupting, defeating and
eliminating Al-Qaeda network; destroying Taliban or making them ineffective;
democratization of Afghanistan; empowerment of women.
US Hidden Objectives. The hidden objectives were to assert American dominance in
the regions surrounded by energy-rich Eurasian region, consolidate Afghanistan as a
neo-colonial US protectorate and a staging post for further intrigues in Central/South
Asia, Middle East, contain China, make India bulwark against China, a key player in
Afghanistan, and stem resurgence of Russia.
Pakistan Specific Objectives.
Initially befriend Pakistan to occupy Afghanistan.
Later, work towards destabilization, de-Islamisation, denuclearization, and
balkanization of Pakistan and making it a vassal state of India.
Installation of Puppet Regime.
Drums of victory were beaten in November 2001
and a puppet regime of Northern Alliance under Hamid Karzai installed in Kabul. During
his over 13 years rule, Karzai allowed the occupiers to ruthlessly persecute the Afghan
Pashtuns. He adopted pro-India and anti-Pakistan stance and permitted Afghan
intelligence agency (NDS) grouped with five foreign agencies to use Afghan soil for
undertaking massive covert war against Pakistan in FATA and Baluchistan.
Resistance War by Taliban. Taliban regime under Mulla Omer was wrongly removed
from power and then consistently hounded and oppressed. The Taliban after carrying
out a tactical withdrawal to regroup, started guerrilla war to free their homeland from
foreign occupation. No amount of force could break the indomitable will of Afghan
Taliban or divide them. By 2008, resistance forces were running shadow governments
in 33 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces with core fighters of about 30,000 and potential
fighters 500,000. ISAF suffered heaviest casualties in 2009 and there on, number kept
increasing. 2015 was the most costly year for Afghan forces and the people.
Stalemate – Victory of Taliban
Failing to defeat the Taliban in the longest war after spending billions of dollars and
using excessive force/torture as well as underhand tricks to divide the Taliban, the US
was left with no other option but to call it a day. Operation Enduring Freedom which
commenced on 07 October 2001, ended on December 28, 2014 and Armies of 35
countries exited without achieving any of the stated and hidden objectives. Learning a
lesson from its unwise decision of abandoning Afghanistan in 1989, the US has left
behind a Resolute Force Group of 12000 under Bilateral Security Agreement till end
2016 to give heart to Afghan forces.
Stalemate was victory for Taliban since Taliban could continue fighting and occupiers
could not. Unlike in 1980s when the Afghan Mujahedeen fought and defeated the
Soviet occupying forces duly helped by Pakistan and the free world, this time the
Taliban under Mulla Omar performed the miracle single-handedly and under much
adverse conditions.
Mistakes made by USA. Major mistakes made were insincere designs, distrusting
Pakistan, relying on India, weak military leadership, drug trafficking, marginalization of
Pashtuns, opening of torture chambers, dependence upon corrupt/inept Karzai regime
and non-Pashtun heavy security forces, hiring of greedy NGOs/security contractors in
thousands; bending situation according to its own whims, farcical political prong aimed
at dividing Taliban, keeping Taliban out of peace talks till 2013. Last but not least
opening 2nd front in Iraq.
Afghan Unity Government. The incumbent unity government was formed in October
2014 after controversial elections, which is more inefficient and corrupt than warlord
heavy Karzai regime. The flaw in this setup is the forcible marriage of convenience mid-
wifed by John Kerry between President Ashraf Ghani and Chief Executive Dr. Abdullah
after their prolonged estrangement. Abdullah heading Northern Alliance is heavily tilted
towards India and he controls 50% of cabinet ministries including NDS. As a result,
influence of India’s RAW in Afghanistan has not diminished. RAW and NDS patronise
Tehrik Taliban Pakistan (TTP) runaways Fazlullah and Omer Khalid Khurasani based in
Kunar and Nangarhar respectively.
Ghani’s Pro-Pakistan Stance. To start with, Ashraf Ghani tilted towards Pakistan as
a result of outstanding success achieved by Operation Zarb-e-Azb in North Waziristan
(NW) which not only pushed out anti-Pakistan militants, but also Haqqani network (HN)
and Hafiz Gul Bahadur militant group. The other thing was Pakistan going an extra mile
in removing Kabul’s security concerns. Ghani was also mindful of his weaknesses
because of lack of political roots. Understanding with resurging Taliban was the only
way for him to survive.
Reasons behind Patch up with Taliban. One reason behind frantic efforts to
negotiate with the Taliban is not-so-happy operational preparedness of the US-UK
trained and equipped Afghan National Army (ANA) to confront the Taliban challenge. It
may not be possible for the US to continue dishing out $4.1 billion per year for the
upkeep of Afghan security forces for long, particularly if they fail to deliver. Other
reason is inherent weakness of unnatural unity government engaged in power tussle.
Most of cabinet ministers including four women are pro-west and have little experience
of governance. Ghani leaned on Pakistan hoping it will persuade Afghan Taliban to talk
and reach a political settlement.
Ghani’s Changed Foreign Policy. With these considerations, Ghani while
enumerating his foreign policy priorities, placed Pakistan, Iran and China well above
India. He undertook his maiden visits to China and Pakistan. He also cancelled arms
deal and military training agreements with India and instead sent cadets to PMA Kakul
for training for the first time. ISI-NDS intelligence cooperation deal was inked. Both
sides took practical measures to improve defence cooperation and intelligence sharing
to tackle common threat of terrorism. Pakistan arranged meetings of Taliban and
representatives of Ghani regime in Beijing and other countries.
Indian Anxieties. Fast improving Pak-Afghan relations, China’s decision to invest $46
billion in Pakistan for the construction of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and energy
projects and Pakistan sailing past the turbulent patch worried India immensely. India is
getting highly vexed since her sinister plans set against Pakistan are falling apart like
nine-pins. Her plan to fill up the security vacuum left behind by the withdrawing US-
NATO troops and to complete encirclement of Pakistan is in jeopardy. Her strategic
alliances with Afghanistan and USA are becoming inconsequential. All the three
conniving partners in crime today find themselves in hot waters. Kautilya’s book offers
no remedy to the prevailing situation since all games of intrigues, coercion and
bloodshed have failed to cow down resilient Pakistan.
RAW Activated.
In desperation, India allocated $300 million to its notorious
intelligence agency RAW and mandated it to further destabilize the troubled regions of
Pakistan and to scuttle CPEC at all costs. Hamid Karzai was given $50 million to
rejuvenate cross border terrorism from Afghan soil and to keep weak-willed Ghani
under pressure and force him to shift his tilt from Pakistan to India. Karzai has teamed
up with RAW influenced NDS, Abdullah and Northern Alliance heavy Afghan Parliament
as well as ANSF to spoil Afghan-Pakistan relations. Indian National Security Adviser Ajit
Doval is personally pursuing anti-Pakistan agenda.
Ghani’s Dilemma.
Ghani is caught between the rock and a hard place. On one hand,
he has to bear the pressure from segment of his government led by Abdullah and
backed by Karzai led faction of Pashtuns, and on the other is the surging Taliban who
enjoy influence over 80% of Afghan territory. After their ouster from NW, HN has
intensified activities in northern Afghanistan where eight provinces are under its control.
Most of Helmand province is also in control of Taliban. Taliban’s 2015 spring offensive
has rapidly changed the situation in their favor. 2016 Spring Offensive in April may
decisively turn the tide. Under pressure from the US, unity government is trying to
patch up with Pakistan. It has taken resignation from the NDS head Nabeel and sacked
8 officials in NDS. Some improvement in Pak-Afghan military relations is discernible.
Obama’s Second Thoughts. The US military felt that with the dismantlement of safe
haven in NW, it had become easier for the Afghan National Army backed by US
airpower/intelligence support to deal with the militants in eastern Afghanistan and thus
defeat them. However, when no success could be achieved at their end and the Taliban
continued to strike targets at will in all parts of the country, the option of dialogue was
renewed. To appease Taliban, Obama struck off Afghan Taliban from the category of
terrorists and termed them as insurgents fighting for their rights. He also declared that
US troops would not fire at Taliban unless provoked by them. These reconciliatory
moves were aimed to induce the Taliban to negotiate and arrive at a political
settlement. Obama had announced that by mid-2015 he would withdraw 50% of
residual force, but now the US seems to be having second thoughts on gradual
reduction of troops on account of Pentagon’s pressure and Da’esh (ISIS) threat.
Two Pronged Negotiations. The US was forced to patch up with the Taliban whom it
had all these years been projecting as uncivilized, crude terrorists deserving no mercy.
Initial effort to induce Taliban for talks was based on two prongs, one prong led by
Ghani and the other by the US and in both cases, Pakistan was asked to assist. China
was also given a green signal to play its role in restoring peace in Afghanistan. Ghani
kept urging the Taliban to join the unity government, and this was one reason of 106
days delay in forming the 16-member cabinet duly approved by Afghan parliament, but
the Taliban didn’t agree.
Presumed Pakistan’s Influence over Taliban. Both the US and Afghan regime
carry the impression that Pakistan is in a position to bring the Taliban to the negotiating
table. While it is true that Pakistan does have some influence over Taliban leaders since
quite many were in its custody all these years, it doesn’t control them and is not in a
position to make them agree to the terms sought by the US. It can also not give any
guarantee to the Taliban that Afghan regime will abide by the terms of agreement
arrived at. Pakistan and China are however trying hard to create conducive conditions
for talks. Pakistan is playing a key role in creating goodwill space for China in
Afghanistan and in mending its relations with Taliban.
Peace Talks. As a consequence to these silent efforts, the wheels of talks started to
churn slowly in Doha and the Taliban in principle agreed to open their political office
there for the initiation of formal political dialogue. Murree talks held on July 7, 2015
between representatives of Taliban and unity government, and US and China’s
representatives sitting as observers raised hopes of a settlement for the first time. On
July 29, eight members of Taliban Shura had reached Islamabad to participate in
second round of talks on July 31 to further speed up the reconciliation process.
Death of Mulla Omar Exploited
Ill-motivated and ill-timed announcement of death of Mulla Omar by the National
Directorate of Security (NDS) on July 29 was aimed at derailing peace talks, straining
Pak-Afghan relations and dividing Taliban. The news was later confirmed by Taliban
Shura. Election of Mulla Akhtar Muhammad Mansour as next Ameer was announced by
Afghan Rahbari Shura on July 30. Sirajuddin Haqqani and Haibatullah Khanzada were
appointed deputies.
Mullah Omar’s departure from the scene has altered the whole dynamics of nascent
peace negotiations with the Taliban. His deputy Mulla Mansour was part of the Taliban
movement from the start and has effectively been in charge as de facto commander
since 2013. He faces a huge challenge in trying to unite a movement that is already
showing signs of fragmenting and questions about his legitimacy at the highest echelon
of the Taliban has made his position awkward.
Rifts in Taliban Two rival camps got engulfed in war of succession; one led by
Mansour and the other by Omar’s brother Mulla Abdul Manan and Omar’s 26 years old
son Mulla M. Yaqub backed by Mullas Mansur Dadullah, Hasan Rahmani, Abdul Razaq,
Rasool Akhund and Qayum Zakir. Fadayee Mahaz headed by Haji Najibullah is another
opponent of Mansour who accused him of poisoning Omar to death. Head of Taliban
political office in Doha Tayyab Agha resigned, but has so far remained neutral. Taliban
are also divided on the issue of talks, one faction favoring and the other opposing it.
Sinister Objectives of Detractors Accomplished. Spoilers sprang into action to
accentuate the rift and succeeded in achieving their sinister objectives by disrupting
peace talks. Several woven stories about circumstances, place and date of Omar’s death
created tension among rank and file of Taliban and impacted their unity. This internal
rift is to the liking of India and other spoilers who are busy widening the rift by
supporting the opponents of Mansour. The US is also a spoiler. It is not in favor of
Pakistan mediated agreement since it will benefit Taliban and Pakistan. It has made the
position of Pakistan and Mansour favoring talks difficult. Pak-Afghan relations that had
begun to improve have again become frosty. However, the biggest loser is Kabul itself.
Efforts to Heal the Rift
Five members of Council of senior Taliban Ulema tried to bridge the rift. They met on
August 21, 2015 to resolve the differences, but Mulla Yaqub and Manan refused to
contest the post of Ameer since they knew they didn’t enjoy popular support among the
Taliban. Had Mansour not met them, the Council would have appointed Maulvi
Muhammad Ahmad from Kandahar belonging to Kakar tribe as next Ameer. Currently
Mulla Rasool is the main opponent of Mansour and is anti-peace talks.
Mullah Mansour’s Assertiveness
In order to consolidate his position and to win over support of opponent camp, Mansour
stiffened his stance by asserting that there will be no talks without meeting their basic
demands of complete withdrawal of foreign troops and replacement of US tailored
constitution with Islamic constitution. He also stepped up attacks in all parts of
Afghanistan and raised his stature after capturing Kunduz. He did this to dispel the over
optimistic impression that after the death of Mulla Omar, Taliban are in disarray and
resistance has weakened, and that Taliban will be negotiating from position of
weakness. Taliban hold sway over 127 districts of the country. Latest news is that on
February 12, the opponents of Mulla Mansour have decided to forge unity and reunify
the Taliban movement.
Negotiated Political Settlement
Negotiated political settlement leading to broad based government with Taliban, given
representation as per their demographic strength will be an ideal arrangement since it
will prevent civil war and benefit Afghan Pashtuns, Pakistan and China but may not be
that beneficial for non-Pashtun Northern Alliance since its power base will shrink. It will
also not suit India since balance of power will shift towards Pakistan friendly Afghan
Pashtun. Iran and USA will also not be happy.
While Pakistan and China are playing an active role in making Afghanistan peaceful,
both are clear that arm twisting of Taliban will prove counterproductive. In case a
settlement is reached without giving a bigger share in power to the Taliban, the
implication is that there will be strong resentment among the rank and file of the
Taliban and other resistance forces. It will become very difficult for Mullah Mansour who
has become controversial to control the dissenters.
Threat of Da’esh. Da’esh (ISIS) has gained toeholds in Nangarhar and Farah
provinces and has also colluded with Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) in Northern
Afghanistan. India and probably USA are discreetly facilitating their entry. Weakening of
Taliban will create more space for Da’esh in Afghanistan, which will be more hazardous
for the whole region, since Da’esh is vying to re-establish ancient Khurasan State
comprised of parts of Central Asia, Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan. Collusion of Da’esh
with TTP leaders based in Afghanistan assisted by RAW and making Nangarhar as main
base of operation is a dangerous development. Extension of hand of friendship by Al-
Qaeda chief Zawahiri to Mulla Mansour if reciprocated will add to the complications of
regional security. It will result in prolonged bloodshed and destruction spread over
decades, as predicted by Obama.
Iran-Saudi Tiff.
Growing tiff between the two ideological rivals is casting its shadow
on Syria and Afghanistan and if not diffused in time will have bearing on Pakistan as
Indian Military Involvement in Afghanistan.
Indian military which had refused to join the US led coalition in Afghanistan to fight
terrorism in 2001 has now decided to barge into Afghanistan. India has renewed its
defence deal with Afghanistan and is now supplying arms and ammunition to ANA since
last January. Indian Military Attache in Kabul Sojeet Narain stated that India has started
assisting the Afghan military in their fight against militants and this support will
continue till victory. 400 trucks carrying arms have been transported to Kabul for ANA
via Chahbahar. It includes MGs, LMGs, rocket launchers, grenades and ammunition.
India’s Russian built MI-35 attack helicopters flew from Bagram air base to support
ANA’s ground operation in Helmand on January 20. Gen John Campbell appreciated
Indian effort. On February 1, Indian military cargo planes unloaded weapons and
equipment at Kabul airport. India is already imparting training to Afghan police and is
now likely to train ANA.
During Modi’s last visit to Kabul, an agreement was signed allowing Indian citizens to
travel to Afghanistan and back without visa. Taking advantage of this facility, India has
inducted large numbers of retired armed forces officers and undercover officers in
Afghanistan in order to consolidate Indian military’s presence and to keep western
border hot and to gain control over Wakhan corridor. This ingress will help India in
interfering with CPEC.
Fallout of Turmoil in Afghanistan
Negative fallout of the disarray in the Taliban ranks is not good news for the peaceniks
including President Ashraf Ghani, Washington and Islamabad. Another obvious corollary
of the disharmony in Taliban ranks is that erstwhile Taliban factions will join Da’esh in
bigger numbers and pave the way for Da’esh to emerge as the most powerful entity.
Turmoil in Afghanistan will be to the big disadvantage of Pakistan, since there will be
spillover effect. Pak Army is already tired fighting the war for 13 years and cannot
afford to further prolong it. It will also adversely impact China’s economic aggression in
the region and its plan to connect Gwadar with Afghanistan.
Preventive Act. In order to prevent the chaos, US, China, Pakistan and Iran should
collectively help the intra-Afghan dialogue to proceed smoothly till comprehensive
political settlement benefiting all factions of Afghans irrespective of ethnic divisions.
Role of unity government is however critical since Taliban offensive has rattled Ghani,
and he has begun to speak Karzai and Abdullah’s language. War lords are once again
getting stronger and cases of desertions from ANSF to private militias are increasing as
had happened in 1990/91.
Quadrilateral Talks
Three sessions of quadrilateral talks have been held in Islamabad and Kabul in which
representatives of Pakistan, Afghanistan, China and the US took part to evolve a
roadmap for peace talks. Afghan unity government has prepared a draft for next
meeting in Kabul on February 23. So far no breakthrough has been achieved since the
Taliban have not joined it. However inclusion of two heavy weights and Russia’s support
has given strength to peace process. Russia favors striking off names of Taliban from
UN black list. Pakistan is insisting that spoilers should be restrained, Afghan regime
should cooperate, and all factions of Taliban and Hizb-e-Islami should be invited and
use of stick avoided. Afghan government wants use of force against those refusing to
hold talks. Taliban, HN and Fidai Mahaz have been asked to prepare their list of
demands, while Hizb-e-Islami is also being approached through elders of tribes in
Paktia.
The four have urged the Taliban to attend the next meeting in Kabul on February 23
but the Taliban have made their participation subject to fulfilment of their demands
here under:
A. Take off Taliban leaders from the UN list of terrorists.
B. Release of prisoners.
C. Remove restrictions on travel.
D. Unfreeze their accounts in foreign banks.
E. Intimate exact date of departure of Resolute Support Force.
Determinants
Although analysts are busy painting doomsday scenario, saying it marks the end of
Taliban movement, but knowing their resilience and unmatched sacrifices, it will not die
down and someone else will carry forward the baton; although none will fit in Mulla
Omar’s shoes. Their position has eroded a little due to internal rifts, but Mulla Mansour
commands the largest and most powerful faction. Yet the 36 years’ war has fatigued
them and their 3-4 generations have got affected. They also want the war to end. The
country too badly needs a break.
Pakistan has suffered the most on account of instability in Afghanistan. Pak-Afghan
security is inter-linked and it is a geo-strategic compulsion for both to remain friendly.
While Pakistan realizes it, Afghan leadership doesn’t. Earlier the Afghan leaders
recognize this reality and take practical steps to restore peace, better it will be for the
region.
Till such time anti-peace elements led by India, Abdullah and Rashid Dostum are reined
in, and the US stops its double game, peace will not return in Af-Pak region.
Unless Kabul gets out of perverse influence of India, cooperate rather than distrust
Pakistan, and opts for a home-made formula, sooner than later unity government would
crumble and ANA would splinter and pave the way for dreaded civil war.
In real-politick terms, stability in Afghanistan and regional harmony among all countries
surrounding it would contribute in the fast-paced development of the region.
Implication is that this region cannot develop economically as long as Afghanistan
remains unstable.
With hostile India on its east, Pakistan can ill-afford to have pro-India and anti-Pakistan
regime in Kabul posing a twin threat to its security.
History of Afghanistan teaches an important lesson that peace and stability in
Afghanistan is possible only after complete withdrawal of foreign troops. And all
stakeholders within the country are ready to accept each other and arrive at a common
arrangement. This was true in the past and is valid today.
All depends whether the US after abandoning Afghanistan would forsake its declared
and hidden objectives for which it came, spent trillions and suffered heavy casualties
besides losing face and prestige as a sole super power, or indirectly continues with its
proxy war?
The US having lost the war, would like as a minimum to have friendly government in
Afghanistan to be able to pursue its mercantile interests in Central Asian region.
Only joint and collaborative efforts can tackle terrorism and not blame-game.
Ultimate solution to Afghan imbroglio will have to be found by the Afghans themselves.
Others can at best facilitate dialogue.
Lastly, key to peace is with Taliban and none else. Best course for people of
Afghanistan is to honor the colossal sacrifices of the Taliban and let them form the
future broad-based government without outside interference.
Recommendations
Pakistan should grant ‘Most Favored Nation’ status and land access to India through
Wagah border with due prudence. This should be linked with resolution of core issues.
Pakistan should assert and exert its geo-strategic position and significance and extract
its due share rather than following a self-defeating policy of appeasement.
Pakistan should continue to convince the US and Afghan government to limit India’s
role in Afghanistan since it is the chief trouble maker.
Concerted efforts be made to counter Indian propaganda in Afghanistan aimed at
poisoning the minds of Afghans against Pakistan and remove their misperceptions.
Imaginative themes should be coined to win back friendship of estranged Afghan
public, particularly Afghan non-Pashtuns.
Pakistan should be mentally and physically prepared to handle post 2016 explosive
scenario in Afghanistan.
Pakistan should help China in further expanding its influence in Afghanistan to
neutralize Indian influence.
At behest of USA, Pakistan betrayed Afghan Taliban and suffered a great deal. They
must not be ditched again.
Conclusion
To conclude I would say that Pakistan has remained under the deceptive magic spell of
the US for too long without any gains. Pakistan helped the untrustworthy USA to occupy
Afghanistan and remove a friendly regime and replace it with anti-Pakistan regime. It
has been ceding ground to win the friendship of India but couldn’t change the mindset
of Brahman rulers who have not reconciled to Pakistan’s existence and has missed no
opportunity to harm Pakistan. Unity government in Kabul is wholly in the grip of USA
and India and will continue to prefer India over Pakistan. It is continuing to help India
to destabilize Pakistan. Notwithstanding the need to maintain friendly relations with all
the three, this fatal affection must not be at the cost of national interests and dignity of
the nation. Policy of appeasement should be replaced with policy of upholding our self-
esteem. It is Pakistan’s strategic compulsion to have a friendly government in
Afghanistan and it must strive hard for it using all its diplomatic skills.
The writer is a retired Brig, war veteran/defence analyst/columnist/author of five books,
Director Measac Research Centre, Director Board of Governors Thinkers Forum
Pakistan. asifharoonraja@gmail.com
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Every Pakistan Should Make it their Mission to Boot this Corrupt and Seditious Regime of Nawaz Sharif & Sharif Dynasty. If they are not removed Pakistan may cease to exist. Nawaz Sharif is Sh.Mujib of Pakistan.He has a hidden agenda to destroy all state institutions of Pakistan,including the Pakistan Army. Nawaz Sharif has sent feelers to many senior officers of Pakistan Army to join hands with him in benefiting from sale of Pakistan state assets. In return, Nawaz has asked for iron clad guarantees of loyalty to him and not to the state of Pakistan. Nawaz Sharif is furiously searching for seniors officers of Kashmiri background who will support his dynastic ambitions. Nawaz Sharif is making every effort to weaken the discipline, unity, and cohesiveness of Pakistan Army. He considers Pakistan Army the biggest hurdle in his ambition of Akhand Bharat, where he is promised Presidency with full powers by Narendra Modi. Nawaz Sharif is a clear and present danger to existence of Pakistan,Unless, Nawaz Sharif is removed by the Judiciary, Pakistan faces serious existential danger.
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