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Posted by admin in Anchor & Commentators, Asif Haroon Raja (Retd):Pakistan Army, Brig (Retd).Asif Haroon Raja's Column, OPINION LEADER on April 2nd, 2022
Global Implications
Part-1
“Remember when you leave this earth, you can take with you nothing that you have received, only what you have given, a full heart, enriched by honest service, love, sacrifice and courage.” – St. Francis of Assisi
Cold War
After the end of the 2nd WW, the world was divided into two camps, one led by the USSR and the other by the USA. The nuclear capability of the two superpowers deterred the two rivals from clashing with each other, but they got involved in a prolonged Cold War, which raged till 1991.
Western Pledge to Gorbachev
Once the Soviet Empire built by Lenin-Stalin began to totter after the defeat and ouster of Soviet forces from Afghanistan in Feb 1989, followed by fall of Berlin wall, the 14 Soviet Republics and the Soviet satellite states started declaring independence.
A conference was held at Bonn in 1989 attended by the officials of USA, UK, France and Germany to discuss the German unification modalities. The participants gave a categorical assurance which was conveyed to Gorbachev through the US ambassador in Moscow Jack Matlock that NATO would remain confined to united Germany and would not push into the territory east of Germany, i.e. Elbe. It was stated that East European countries wouldn’t be offered NATO’s membership.
This pledge was dishonored after the fragmentation of the USSR in 1991 and getting reduced to the Russian Federation. Russia was not even accepted as part of a unified Europe. George H.W. Bush had declared that the First Gulf War against Iraq would usher in a ‘New World Order’ led by the USA. In 1992 came the Wolfowitz Doctrine, envisaging prevention of re-emergence of a new rival. With the demise of communism, Islamic fundamentalism was declared as the new threat to the US international order and capitalism.
NATO’s Eastward Expansion
The US-NATO launched five waves to expand eastwards. In the first wave, Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic were taken in the fold of NATO in 1999.
In the second wave in 2003-2004, the three Baltic States of Estonia, Latvia and Slovakia were made members of NATO thereby threatening the eastern border of Russia. Pro-Moscow socialist regime in Georgia was replaced with a pro-West regime through color revolution in 2003. Russia reacted in 2008 by making two provinces of Georgia independent.
The 3rd wave was in 2009. In the 4th wave in early 2014, a regime change was made in Ukraine through another color revolution. In reaction, Russian forces captured Crimea in March that year. The 5th eastward wave was in 2019.
In 2021, Washington and Brussels announced their intentions to make Georgia and Ukraine members of NATO. Membership of NATO jumped from 12 to 16 and then to 30.
The last indirect intrusion was in Kazakhstan in Jan 2022 where widespread anti-government protests had almost toppled the pro-Moscow regime, but was rescued by the Russian troops.
Most of the former Soviet Republics barring few happily helped the US and NATO in encircling Russia. Poland and Romania agreed to deploy the American Ballistic missiles defence system.
President Zelensky allowed the US to establish 25-30 bio-chemical weapons labs in Kiev, Kharkov and Odessa. Reportedly, Israel was also in this business. There are reports of corona virus research labs as well.
Importance of Ukraine
Ukraine is important to both Russia and the EU since it is the largest country in Europe and rich in mineral resources. It is Europe’s breadbasket and a major exporter of grains.
It provides direct access to Russia’s Gazprom gas field and oil pipelines to Europe. 40% of the gas, and one-quarter of crude oil, are supplied by Russia through Ukraine to Europe. Germany, Italy and the Netherlands are the largest importers of Russian gas.
Loss of Ukraine will directly threaten the security of Russia.
Hence Ukraine which provides strategic depth to Russia, is the vital ground for Russia’s geo-economic and security interests.
Imposition of sanctions on gas from Russia will oblige the EU to import it mainly from the US at triple the price.
Brzezinski stated that ‘Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire, but with Ukraine, suborned and then subjugated, Russia becomes an empire’.
Moscow’s Reminders to Washington
The US-NATO were repeatedly advised by Moscow to abandon their Cold War approach, and to respect the sovereignty of other countries and interests, but drunk with power the haughty US-NATO paid no heed to Russia’s security concerns.
Vladimir Putin instead of taking proactive measures to block NATO’s encroachment, he adopted a conciliatory policy with the West. He even collaborated with the US in its war on terror, and didn’t object to the growing US influence in Central Asia.
He and Trump were pally with each other, so much so that Trump was accused by the Democrats of seeking help from Russia to win the 2016 elections.
Putin Loses his Cool
Once Putin assessed that the aggressors were not prepared to halt their expansion and to remove the strike weapons deployed close to Russia’s borders, and to close the bio-weapon labs, and were about to make Ukraine a member of NATO, he lost his cool, and gradually deployed up to 1, 30,000 Russian forces on the borders of Ukraine from Nov 2021 onwards, and then invaded Ukraine on Feb 24, 2022.
If the US could legalize its policy of pre-emption and step into Afghanistan and the Middle East located 7000 miles away to safeguard its homeland, why can’t Russia do it when its immediate backyard is threatened?
Ongoing Operations in Ukraine
Large bridgehead has been made in the Donbas region in the east where Luhansk and Donetsk, who had declared their independence were recognized by Moscow on 22 Feb.
From the direction of Crimea in the Kherson region, Russian troops have made deep penetrations and have closed up to Odessa. The southern port city of Mariupol is about to fall. Northwestern suburb of Bucha is entirely held by Russian forces including parts of Irpin, and Kharkiv in the northeast.
Invaders are gradually encircling the capital city Kiev to choke it and force the defenders to surrender. Chernobyl nuclear plant has been seized, and several US funded and run bio-chemical labs destroyed.
Chechen forces allied with Russian forces are fighting the Ukrainians. 15000 Syrian fighters have volunteered to join Russian forces in Ukraine and Putin has given them a nod.
So far, other than Kherson, no major city has been captured due to stiff resistance by the Ukrainians.
Over 4 million Ukrainians and others have fled and have become refugees in neighboring states with bulk in Poland. The Refugee issue will blow up further and would create social problems for the host countries.
Both sides have suffered casualties. But, these are no match to the killings and destruction caused by western forces during the war on terror.
Russia has put its nuclear assets on high alert. Belarus has shed off its non-nuclear status, enabling Russia to deploy its nuclear weapons there.
Putin views all the former USSR Republics as artificial states propped up by the west, and has sternly warned them to stay out of the conflict.
Russia is determined to demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine. He is in no mood to pull out his forces until and unless his security concerns are addressed.
He allowed human corridors for the exit of civilians, but actually he wanted to deprive the Ukraine army of the human shield.
He is drawing strength from the support of China, which is also a victim of the US belligerence.
Battle in Ukraine is the battle for the new world order. Like Lenin and Stalin, Putin is seeking to overthrow the US imposed world order which in his view is selfish and unjust.
Much against the expectations of Putin of a short and swift outcome, the war is dragging on and is likely to get prolonged.
Zelensky’s Pleas Fallen on Deaf Ears
Zelensky, a Jewish TV comedian, is beseeching the US and NATO to come to his rescue, and establish a no-fly-zone to prevent Russian jets from bombing the cities.
UK, Germany, France and other NATO countries have dispatched heavy consignments of missiles, anti-tank and air defence weapons to Ukraine to bolster its spirits. At Brussels, it was decided to double NATO forces on Russia’s border.
The US has deployed two additional Patriot batteries in Poland, sanctioned $ 15 billion aid, and committed a $ I.5 billion military aid package. Biden is now thinking of sending long range anti-aircraft guns for Ukraine.
Biden declared that the US will defend every inch of NATO territory with full might of a united and galvanized NATO, but will not fight war against Russia since he cannot risk a 3rd WW.
Western media is severely condemning Putin and is painting him a butcher, deranged, an evil monster and a war criminal.
Parleys are taking place between Ukraine and Russia at Istanbul, but so far no breakthrough has been achieved.
Ukraine’s Legitimacy
It has been revealed that the borders of Ukraine were never demarcated and registered in the UN as a sovereign state. Hence, officially it is part of the former USSR of which Russia is the officially recognized successor state.
Moscow can now claim Ukraine to be its integral part, and whatever is happening there as its internal matter.
Third World Wooed
The USA and Russia are trying to win over as many countries of the third world to their side to swing the diplomatic balance on their side.
China and Russia stand on a higher moral ground to win the support of the countries of Asia, Middle East and Africa.
China has been helping the debt ridden countries by providing easy loans for social programs, and developing infrastructure.
Russia helped Iran in its missile/ nuclear programs and in easing sanctions, and had a key role in saving the Assad regime in Syria.
On the other hand, prejudice, malice and discrimination against the non-whites have been the guiding principles of the western world.
Today the West has no justification to dub Russia as a war monger since Russia didn’t for once step into the backyard of USA, nor meddled into the internal affairs of other countries, or indulged in proxy wars, or imposed sanctions on any country.
To be continued
The writer is a retired Brig Gen, war veteran who took part in the epic battle of Hilli in former East Pakistan in 1971, he is defence, security & political analyst, international columnist, author of five books, Chairman Thinkers Forum Pakistan & Director Measac Research Centre, takes part in TV programs, and delivers talks. [email protected]
Posted by admin in Brig (Retd).Asif Haroon Raja's Column, OPINION, OPINION LEADER on November 1st, 2021
Post US withdrawal from AfghanistanPart – 1
Asif Haroon Raja
“The aim of human happiness and solidarity is not violence, wars and aggression. All wars perpetuate violence, fear, and vindictiveness and are aimed at the destruction of civilizations and dehumanization of succeeding generations”. Bruce Gambrill Foster, “The Scourge of War: The Shameless Marketing of Violence”
Optimism dampened
The US had made Pakistan its coalition partner and a frontline state to fight the war on terror but throughout the two-decade war, its attitude towards Pakistan was highly discriminatory. It never hid its dislike against Pakistan and fondness for India and its two puppet regimes in Kabul. Pakistan was optimistic that after the withdrawal of foreign troops and removal of the anti-Pakistan Kabul regime and elimination of perverse influence of India, Afghanistan and its western border would become peaceful and would open up vistas for a better future.
Pakistan was also hopeful that after doing so much for the double-dealing USA in the 20-year war on terror, the US would bring a change in its acrimonious behavior and become more empathetic and affable but there is no change. The US frostiness towards both Afghanistan and Pakistan coupled with fluid and uncertain conditions in Afghanistan have dampened Pakistan’s optimism.
Apart from unfriendly outlook of the US, and lukewarm response of the regional countries towards the plight of war-torn Afghanistan, Islamic State-Khurasan (IS-K) is making Afghanistan insecure by its acts of terror. In addition to the attack in Kabul, two deadly suicide attacks occurred in the Imam-bargahs of Kunduz and Kandahar during the prayers on two successive Fridays resulting in heavy human losses. The victims were mostly Shias who form 10% of the population.
Foreign supported TTP and BLA as well as IS-K have carried out a series of attacks in Waziristan and Baluchistan in the last 2-3 months. The Taliban recently busted one of the dens of BLA in Nimroz, captured several of its militants and recovered a heavy cache of arms. The BLA has also been operating from Sistan in Iran.
After the Taliban recaptured power, anti-Pakistan Hamid Karzai started giving friendly signals to Pakistan in the hope of getting a seat in the Taliban cabinet. But on prompting of his masters, he again changed colors like a chameleon and is threatening Pakistan not to meddle in Afghan affairs.
With over 11 million Afghans living below poverty lines, the resource constraint Taliban regime is finding it extremely difficult to feed the hungry, provide salaries to the workers and daily wages to the laborers. Humanitarian crisis similar to Yemen is being deliberately created by the spoilers of peace eager to deter Russia, China, Pakistan and Iran from filling the power vacuum in Afghanistan and to discredit the new regime. The IMF has predicted that if $ 9.50 billion of the Afghan Central Bank confiscated by the US is not released and no foreign aid is provided, the Afghan economy may shrink by 30%.
The sense of elation felt by the Taliban after achieving great victory is dampening as a result of bleak economic and security conditions and non-cooperative attitude of the international community.
Reasons behind the US estrangement with Pakistan
The US after achieving all its objectives from the Afghan Jihad, dropped its most allied ally of South Asia Pakistan from its plate like a hot potato in 1990 and hugged India which had consistently pursued anti-American policies. Since then Pakistan has been taken out of the American security calculus and put in the hit list of Washington. India was made a strategic partner due to converging security interests. Under the changed perceptions, the US has striven to make Pakistan a compliant State and India the policeman of the Indo-Pacific region.
Driven by its wish to make India fight their war with China, the US signed high profile security pacts like civil nuclear deal, LEMOA, COMCASA, and ISA. The US hasn’t given up this wish even after China’s PLA soundly thrashed Indian soldiers with fists and spiked clubs in unarmed combat in Eastern Ladakh.
Major reasons of the USA’s estrangement with Pakistan were that it is a Muslim country with high pitched Islamic ideological fervor and strong armed forces, it has weapon grade nuclear program and variety of sophisticated guided missiles, enjoys strong friendship with China and refuses to accept Indian hegemony. Later on CPEC, and Pakistan’s intimacy with the new Taliban regime have been added to the list which give it bellyaches.
Slight change which came in the US attitude after 9/11 was because of geo-political compulsions. Pakistan was taken on board because of its usefulness in Afghanistan. It was first used for the occupation of Afghanistan in 2001. Next it was used to defeat Al-Qaeda. It was then needed to extend the war to fight and defeat the Taliban, which was not possible without the two supply routes provided by Pakistan.
Warmth in relations cooled down when Pakistan refused to fight the Afghan Taliban and Haqqani network (HN). Pakistan’s bold act of flushing out HN from North Waziristan in 2015 didn’t satisfy the US and the Kabul regime since the duo wanted Pak security forces to deal with the Afghan Taliban the same way. Pakistan’s refusal to fight someone else’s war annoyed the US. Pakistan’s services were again required to make the Doha peace talks with the Taliban successful, and lastly to carry out safe exit of troops from Afghanistan.
After the departure of all the foreign troops from Afghanistan which obviated the danger of body bags, the US doesn’t need Pakistan and will view its future relations through the Afghanistan lens only. This can be gauged from the unfriendly statement made by the US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman in India, “We don’t see ourselves building a broad relationship with Pakistan”.
The US-India nexus desire unstable Afghanistan
The US as well as India were never interested in the stability and development of Afghanistan. Prolongation of war suited their geo-economic and geo-strategic interests.
Peace talks were a ruse to divide the Taliban and to keep the Afghanistan-Pakistan region unstable.
The US is eager to fail the new regime in Kabul and pave the way for the return of the Northern Alliance led by ex-Vice President Amrullah Saleh.
The US desire for an airbase
Currently, the US sole interest in Pakistan is to acquire an air base, or air passage to conduct counterterrorism operations against IS-K and other terrorist groups in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s services are needed to maximize pressure on the Taliban to make them submissive.
Washington had wanted an airbase in Uzbekistan or in Tajikistan on a temporary basis which was not accepted by Russia. Its request for deploying an Intel apparatus in Central Asia to monitor Afghanistan was also flatly declined by Moscow.
The US wants to renew air war to be able to gun down the Taliban and HN senior leaders, particularly those who are blacklisted and are in hiding.
The US media splashed news on Oct 23 that Islamabad has agreed to provide air base facility to Pakistan which was refuted by the latter.
Taliban and Pakistan in firing line
The US spent $ 8 trillion for the achievement of its geo-economic objectives through the deceitful and bloody war on terror. In spite of spending colossal amounts of dollars, using massive military force, waging the longest war, and suffering heavy fatalities, injuries, trauma and bearing the taunts of the world, the end result for the US was catastrophic. It soiled its reputation as the invincible sole super power and has become a descending power. The time and money it spent to hand back Kabul to the Taliban could have been used to help the struggling Americans. Instead of carrying out self-examination and post mortem as to why it lost the war, why it couldn’t denuclearize Pakistan, failed to contain China and Russia, and couldn’t tame Iran, the US civil and military leadership started to look for sacrificial lambs to pin the blame of their humiliation upon them. There is no regret or feelings of remorse among the ones in power in Washington that the response to 9/11 attacks lacked sagaciousness, and was a reckless misadventure. US War Crimes in AfghanistanThere is no talk of war crimes and war trials of those who legitimized brutality, indulged in massive human rights violations, used excessive force, and earned profits from the war. None is talking of rebuilding the destroyed country and providing compensations to the next of kin of the victims of war. Data published in May by Action on Armed Violence (AOAV), a London-based charity, showed that 3,977 casualties were caused by US-led airstrikes between 2016 and 2020. Among them, 1,598 were children. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202109/1235240.shtml U.S. personnel to be investigated for alleged war crimes in AfghanistanThe International Criminal Court will also look into possible crimes by Taliban militants and Afghan government forces.
 The International Criminal Court in The Hague, Netherlands.Peter Dejong / AP file
The Taliban are blamed for defeating and disgracefully pushing out the US-NATO forces, and allegedly failing to abide by the terms of Doha agreement. Pakistan is held responsible for allegedly assisting the Taliban in achieving victory. They are burning in the inferno of rage, humiliation and revenge, and are hatching plans on how to settle scores with the Taliban and Pakistan.
Both the narratives are as cockeyed as the ones conceived after 9/11 and amounts to passing the buck on to someone else and ignoring own glaring blunders.
Biden is being blamed by the US Generals and the Republicans for the chaotic withdrawal and Trump is exploiting it to gain political mileage.
The writer is retired Brig Gen, war veteran, defence & security analyst, international columnist, author of five books, Chairman Thinkers Forum Pakistan, Director Measac Research Centre, & Member CWC PESS & Veterans Think Tank. [email protected] |
Posted by admin in Asif Haroon Raja (Retd):Pakistan Army, Brig (Retd).Asif Haroon Raja's Column, Decline of Empires, ISIS, NGOs-Trojan Horse For Spies, THE MAD DUDE, Trump, Trump-The Global Nightmare, Two Faced Hamid Karzai, US Attacks on Pakistan, US Back stabs Pakistan, US CLEAR & PRESENT DANGER TO PAKISTAN, US FOREIGN POLICY & INTERNATIONAL LAW, US Interference in Balochistan, US SPYING ON PAKISTAN FOR INDIA & ISRAEL, USGOVT & MEDIA LIES on October 5th, 2021
Stimulated instability in Af-Pak regionPart-3Asif Haroon RajaThe steep decline in America’s image and standing after 9/11 is a direct reflection of global distaste for the instruments of American hard power: the Iraq invasion, Guantanamo, Abu Ghraib, torture, rendition, and Blackwater’s killings of Iraqi civilians. – Shashi Tharoor Unforgiving attitude of the losersThe Taliban’s meteoric victory has dejected the USA, Europe, India, Israel, Iran, liberals and seculars all over the world but has pleased the Islamists. Countries governed by parliamentary democracy and dictatorship are also upset. The victorious Taliban after giving general amnesty to the collaborators, have neither carried out any retributions, nor demanded trials of those who had indulged in massive war crimes as was the case with the victors of the 2nd world war carrying out Nuremberg trials of the Germans, or sought war compensations. The losing US-NATO are however, in black mood, and seem to be primed to avenge their defeat through means other than the military to teach a lesson to the Taliban as well as the convenient scapegoat Pakistan, which was first held responsible for the instability in Afghanistan and now for the victory of the Taliban, and for supporting the new regime. Ironically the losers are trying to dictate terms to the victors and no one is asking them as to who has given them this right. Governed by Islamophobia, Islamic Emirate is unacceptable to the prejudiced West, and is therefore finding faults in every good or bad act taken by the new regime in Kabul and is trying to unsettle them. They want them to fulfill their promises immediately. It is like asking a one-month old baby to start running. The US controlled UN has not fulfilled its commitments given to the Palestinians and Kashmiris 74 years ago. Did the Kabul regime, the Afghan Army and India live up to the expectations of the US, or did the US fulfill its promises made to the Afghans in their 20-year rule? The US after forcibly occupying Afghanistan chose to keep the heavy majority Afghan Pashtuns out of power and handed over the reins of power to the minority ethnic communities. Idea of an inclusive regime never occurred to the occupiers. The two puppet regimes were responsible for fomenting subversion in the region, deepening cleavages within the Afghan society and for creating a big mess. And yet the US tolerated the puppets and richly rewarded them simply because they governed the country as a so-called Islamic Republic under the US tailored constitution. Ill-intended demand of inclusive regimeThe interim set-up in Kabul has not pleased the US, its strategic allies, and the neighbors of Afghanistan. All are insisting on an inclusive regime not realizing that how can revolutionary Taliban accommodate collaborators who aided and abetted foreign occupation, undertook mass killings and inflicted cruelties upon them. Traditionally, the revolutionaries undertook mass killings of their opponents. The Northern Alliance elements are though Muslims, but have a secular bent of mind and are predisposed to the western civilization and not to Pashtunwali code. They had extended their loyalties to the invading Soviet forces and also to the western forces and served them loyally. They showed no mercy to the oppressed Afghan Taliban. Interestingly, none has insisted on selecting honest, upright and capable persons from various ethnic communities on merit. There is no room for liberal political philosophy in Islam which had given birth to pro-rich and anti-poor deceitful modern democracy. Continuation of hostile policyYes, war is hell. It is awful. It involves human beings killing other human beings, sometimes innocent civilians. That is why we despise war. – John O. Brennan The US is angry with Pakistan on account of refusing to provide a military base for counter terrorism purposes, its new policy of defiance and Imran Khan’s brashness to show mirror to the West. The US has got addicted to the pliant leaders and cannot tolerate defiant leaders.
While Daesh-K has been activated to carry out acts of terror in Afghanistan and Pakistan, other hostile measures undertaken so far are freezing of Afghanistan’s $9.5 billion in the US banks, suspension of financial assistance by the World Bank and the IMF, and pushing the Taliban regime to grant more freedom to the women and to induct bigger number of women in the parliament. Hybrid war has been intensified to vilify Pakistan and to disconcert the new regime in Kabul. The US know that since the Taliban cannot be browbeaten, purchased, tricked, or humbled, the only way to have a toehold in Afghanistan is to include the lackeys from Northern Alliance in the interim as well as in permanent set-up who can be easily manipulated to act as fifth columnists and to help in sabotaging peace and stability. To punish Pakistan, the TTP, BLA and Daesh-K have been brought under one umbrella to accelerate terrorism in former FATA and Baluchistan, sword of FATF hasn’t been removed, and cricket teams of New Zealand and UK have cancelled their tours on account of invented insecurity. Australian and West Indies teams are likely to follow suit. Indian hand in the cricket racket has been traced and proof sent to ICC. Political polarization and terrorism have been further intensified by the detractors to project Pakistan as politically unstable and an insecure country in order to block foreign investment. Instability in Afghanistan as well as in Pakistan suits the spoilers since it will impede the progress of CPEC and will also prevent Afghanistan getting connected with it for which the Taliban have expressed their readiness. Taliban’s amiabilityMuch to the chagrin of the spoilers, the Taliban are giving right signals to elicit support of the international community. They want to expand trade ties with other countries and have expressed willingness to induct more Tajiks, Uzbeks, Hazaras and also women in the cabinet. After operationalizing the badly damaged Kabul airport, they are seeking restoration of international flights. Their amiability will however be not at the cost of making compromises on Sharia laws. The Taliban have forgiven their internal and external enemies, but have not forgotten their treachery. They have agreed to cooperate, but not at the cost of losing Islamic identity, Islamic culture and values. They have no intention of falling into their honeycombed trap promising moon and are taking measured steps sensibly. Pakistan’s stanceSince problems of Afghanistan and Pakistan are interlinked, the latter is keen to restore stability in Afghanistan at the earliest. It is right in saying that the Afghans having gone through four decades of turmoil need healing. Apart from dispatching humanitarian assistance, trading in local currency and lowering tariffs on import of fruits and vegetables, Pakistan is lobbying hard to convince the international community to send all possible assistance to stabilize the new regime. In its view neglecting the Taliban would be disastrous for the region in particular and the world in general due to financial, food and health crises and rising poverty in Afghanistan. Pakistan is making strenuous efforts to bring all the six neighbors of Afghanistan in one loop to tackle Afghanistan’s socio-economic issues regionally and has made good progress. Terrorism major worry of PakistanApart from economic woes, Pakistan’s major worry is continuing acts of terrorism. Reportedly, bulk of the TTP elements and its affiliated groups have moved into Pakistan and are regrouping in Loralai and Zhob. The TTP leader Noor Wali Mehsud is dreaming of bringing back former FATA under his sway and to make it an Islamic Emirate. To win over the locals, the TTP is targeting law enforcement agencies only. The Baloch groups led by BLA have teamed up with Dr. Allah Nazar’s Lashkar Baluchistan group. They are targeting security personnel and Chinese in Quetta, Awaran, Kharan, Turbat, Gwadar, Mastung, Sibi, Mach, and Bolan. BLA-Daesh-K terrorists are operating jointly from Nago hills in Mastung and are in contact with dacoit gangs in interior Sindh. A cell of Baloch rebels is functional at Sheerzan (Chahbahar) led by Rasool Bux. With the closure of Spin Boldak main supply route, the terrorists are receiving funds and weapons from India via Sindh, Mekran coast and Sistan. Several intelligence based operations have been conducted in Waziristan and Baluchistan, and good results achieved. Several militant leaders were gunned down and large caches of arms recovered. Speedy completion of fencing of southwestern border along with improved border management has become necessary. China’s roleChina is keen to fill the power vacuum in Afghanistan and has developed good understanding with the Taliban. Its flagship project of CPEC cannot perform optimally without stable Afghanistan and getting connected with CPEC through Peshawar-Kabul Highway. It has extended 200 million Yuan aid to Kabul, which includes 3 million corona vaccines. China’s foreign minister told his counterpart in Washington that it was unethical to freeze accounts of war-torn countries and advised him to unfreeze Kabul’s cash assets and to extend humanitarian assistance. The writer is a retired Brig Gen, war veteran, defence & security analyst, international columnist, author of five books, Chairman Thinkers Forum Pakistan, Director Measac Research Centre, and Member CWC PESS & Think Tank. [email protected] To be concluded
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Posted by admin in Afghan Regugees, AFGHANISTAN, Afghanistan Commentary, Asif Haroon Raja (Retd):Pakistan Army, Brig (Retd).Asif Haroon Raja's Column, Brig(R) Asif Haroon Raja, Taliban & Afghanistan War on October 2nd, 2021
The seven Mujahideen groups duly supported by Pakistan had fought, defeated and ousted the occupying Soviet forces in Feb 1989 after a 10-year bloody war. Left in a lurch by the USA, they got embroiled in a power struggle which led to a civil war in 1992. Tehreek-Taliban-Movement (TTA) under Mullah Omar originated in Kandahar in 1994 as a consequence of the highly disturbed security situation in Afghanistan. Mullah Ghani Baradar was Omar’s trusted deputy. The Taliban were able to capture over 90% territory less Panjshir enclave in northeastern Badakhshan province.
After taking over power in Oct 1996, Mullah Omar established Islamic Emirate and in no time restored normalcy. Only Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and UAE recognized the Taliban regime. Sharia laws helped the inexperienced rulers to make the society crimes and vices free. However, war with the Northern Alliance under Ahmed Shah Masoud duly supported by Russia, Iran and the West continued unabated in the Panjshir.
When 9/11 happened, Afghanistan was a peaceful country. In spite of the US/UN sanctions the Taliban regime had managed to run the state affairs fairly well. Al-Qaeda was blamed for the attacks and the Taliban blamed for not handing over Osama bin Laden. These two reasons were played up to ignite the emotions of the Americans and to justify the invasion of Afghanistan in Oct 2001 and deposition of Taliban regime.
After getting regrouped in FATA, the TTA resorted to guerrilla warfare to confront many times bigger and stronger enemies. Their strengths were religious ideology, valor, faith, will to die, suicide attacks and IEDs. All the Taliban leaders including Mullah Omar remained in hiding and couldn’t be traced by the CIA-FBI in spite of big head money announced for each wanted leader. Omar died in 2013 but his death was kept secret. His successor Mullah Mansour Akhtar operating as the de facto commander from 2013 onwards was elected the Ameer in end July 2015 after Omar’s death was revealed. He cultivated relations with Iran in order to procure arms.
Once the tide swung in favor of the Taliban after the withdrawal of bulk of 140,000 foreign troops by Dec 2014 in accordance with Obama’s drawdown program, and it was established that the Taliban couldn’t be defeated on the battleground or divided, use of airpower and drones was maximized, peace talks with the Taliban through their political office at Doha stimulated, not to make the war-torn country peaceful, but to divide the TTA.
The Afghan national army was trained by the US, British and Indian instructors. Emphasis was on making them self-reliant to be able to fight the Taliban independently.
The CIA and RAW established Daesh-Khorasan (K) at Nangarhar in 2015 and was married up with Jamaat-al-Ahrar led by Khalid Khurasani, a breakaway faction of TTP.
Elections were held in March 2016 in which only 10% voters from urban centres and Afghan refugees in Pakistan voted, and a unity regime formed in Sept that year in which Ashraf Ghani was appointed President and Dr. Abdullah CEO/PM. The two leaders remained locked in a power tussle which further weakened the governance and institutions, and the writ of the government got confined to Kabul only.
Corruption among the ruling regime scaled new heights and drug business kept flourishing making the country the biggest narcotic producing country of the world. Flow of dollars from the US modernized the major capital cities particularly Kabul, but also decayed the morality and values of the liberals and seculars. The downtrodden became poorer and they preferred to get recruited in TTA.
The ANDSF also got corrupted and soldiers and policemen became addicted to drugs and other social vices including selling of weapons to the Taliban and becoming their informers. Officers minted money by recruiting ghost soldiers. Warlords and drug mafias kept filling their coffers and so did the US security and defence contractors. Raising and equipping ANA helped the US Military Industrial Complex to fatten the purses of the fat cats. The ANA on which $ 1.3 trillion was spent couldn’t win a single battle against the Taliban and in each confrontation they were rescued by NATO air support. The phenomenon of green-over-blue attacks and suicides propped up and suicide cases among occupational troops suffering from home sickness and post trauma stress disorder jumped up.
The Taliban managed their war expenditures through drug profits, seizure of NATO containers and levying tax on each passing container, or on development projects in areas under their influence. They earned $ 500 million annually from the US kitty.
These negative developments enabled India to further consolidate its influence in Afghanistan, keep the Kabul regime on a warpath with Islamabad, poison the ears of the Afghans against Pakistan, and to further bolster its clandestine operations in Pakistan.
Inequities and fault lines of the ruling regime made it unpopular, thereby giving reasons to the Taliban to dub it as illegitimate, and to refuse holding talks with it. ANA’s lack of will to fight allowed the Taliban to gain more and more space in all parts of the country.
The US government kept bestowing favors to India to enable it to achieve its ominous objectives against Pakistan. It kept pouring American taxpayers money in the kitty of Afghanistan to reinforce failure, while adopting a tight fisted and discriminatory policy against Pakistan.
The US Alternative plans
Once the occupiers realized that stalemate on the battlefield favored the Taliban, and it was no longer possible to reverse the tide, the US made alternative plans so as not to lose Afghanistan. These were:-
New narratives after plans misfired
Once all the plans misfired and the Taliban abruptly seized power on Aug 15, the baffled occupiers had to undertake ill-planned and disorderly withdrawal. To hide their mortification, the spoilers led by the US came out with new themes and narratives to discredit the Taliban and Pakistan.
To start with, the Indo-US-Western-Israeli media blared fake news that the monsters helped by Pak Army are on the verge of snatching power and soon there will be chaos, bloodshed, civil war and refugee exodus and the Afghan women would again be shackled. This narrative remained in play till July when 90% of territory and majority of provinces including provincial capital cities had fallen and no case of human rights violation had taken place.
Taliban’s master stroke
Learning lesson from their first takeover of power in 1996 in which about 8% of Panjshir Valley couldn’t be captured, and it had provided an opportunity to Russia, Iran, India and the West to support the Northern Alliance, this time the Taliban changed their strategy and focused more on capturing almost the whole of Northern Afghanistan including provinces of Badakshan and Kunduz as well as the palaces of Rashid Dostum, and then homing towards Kabul. Strategy of encirclement and choking of cities was adopted. After the fall of a provincial capital city, (34 in numbers), the Taliban prisoners were released who beefed up the combat strength.
All trade points with the six neighbors and inter-provincial toll plazas were captured and kept functional to earn income.
Wherever the ANA soldiers didn’t put up a fight and surrendered, the Taliban forgave them. This led to a chain reaction and surrender became a norm thereby providing fillip to the conquests of the Taliban.
Unlike the Bolsheviks, the French and American revolutionaries, the Saudis, the Iranians and many others who butchered their fallen foes and raped their women, the Taliban announced general amnesty, which was unique.
By treating the captured or surrendering Afghan Army soldiers humanely irrespective of their ethnic background, the Taliban neutralized them, thereby making their task of capturing major capital cities easier.
The other notable thing was that no incident of killing, theft, and rape took place in all the captured areas. Normal routine was not disrupted, and educational institutes, offices and businesses were not closed. Their benevolence won the hearts of the people and shattered the demonizing myths. Urban dwellers welcomed them and chanted pro-Taliban slogans which further shattered the morale of Afghan soldiers. Consequently, when the Taliban knocked at the gates of Kabul on Aug 14, they encountered no resistance.
After dominating all the roads leading to Kabul and surrounding and choking the capital city, the Taliban succeeded in entering Kabul and capturing it without firing a bullet.
After the botched drama staged at Kabul airport, the mountainous Panjshir under son of Ahmad Shah Masoud and Amrullah Saleh was played up which had been stocked with huge dumps of armaments. The Taliban managed to capture it on Sept 6 and the two leaders fled to Tajikistan.
Divine intervention
Notwithstanding willful efforts of the US led western world to economically incapacitate the newly formed interim Taliban regime on Sept 11, the latter today has huge caches of sophisticated armaments left behind by the foreign forces which include tanks, APCs, Humvis, artillery guns, rockets, small arms, jets, gunship helicopters, night vision goggles, radars, super computers etc. Damaged equipment is repairable. According to some estimates the equipment is worth $ 85 billion, sufficient to raise several corps and air force.
They have also been gifted well-developed infrastructure, eight high-tech military bases, schools, colleges and universities, airports, dry ports, modernized provincial capital cities particularly Kabul studded with large numbers of high quality shopping malls, plazas, hotels, restaurants, gaming clubs, parks, sports grounds, water filtration plants, sewerage system, hospitals, gas and electricity projects.
India gifted parliament building, two dams, Zaranj-Dilaram Highway, several educational institutes, healthcare in rural areas, and structured RAAM and NDS intelligence outfits.
The fleeing Afghan elites have also left behind plenty of foreign currency recovered from their palatial houses.
Afghanistan has trillions of dollars’ worth untapped mineral resources which the US couldn’t extract due to insecurity.
To be continued
The writer is retired Brig Gen, war veteran, defence & security analyst, international columnist, author of five books, Chairman Thinkers Forum Pakistan, Director Measac Research Centre, Member CWC PESS & Think Tank. [email protected]
© 2024, All Rights Reserved by Pakistan Think Tank.
Russia-Ukraine Military Standoff Global Implications Part-2 by Brig Gen(Retd) Asif Haroon Raja
Posted by admin in Anchor & Commentators, Asif Haroon Raja (Retd):Pakistan Army, Brig (Retd).Asif Haroon Raja's Column, OPINION LEADER, PAKISTAN THINK TANK DISTINGUISHED COMMENTATOR on April 2nd, 2022
Russia-Ukraine Military Standoff
Global Implications
Part-2
Asif Haroon Raja
“Where justice is denied, where poverty is enforced, where ignorance prevails, and where any one class is made to feel that society is an organized conspiracy to oppress, rob and degrade them, neither persons nor property will be safe.” – Frederick Douglass
USA’s Policy of Sanctions
To compel Russia to pull out its troops, the US and EU took no time to impose a series of tough sanctions on Russia, and closed airspaces for the Russian air movement. The US told Europe to boycott Russian goods and not to buy oil and gas from Russia. Russia’s $ 300 billion have been frozen in the US/European banks.
Consequently, Russia has become the most sanctioned country after Iran.
Purpose is to isolate Russia, make it bankrupt, bring a regime and install a puppet regime in Moscow.
Blackwater in Ukraine has been activated by the CIA to create trouble.
In Poland, Joe Biden gave a call saying “Putin cannot remain in power”. Russians are being invited to topple Putin’s regime. He also hinted that it will be a long war. Nine months earlier, he had declared that “it’s time to end the war forever”.
He is now justifying the long haul under the plea of fighting a great battle between democracy and autocracy, between liberty and repression. He uttered these holy words ignoring that George Bush senior and junior had also raised similar slogans to justify their brutal invasions. He also forgot that Poland is ruled by an ultra-right xenophobe regime under President Duda. Biden’s jingoism points towards another New World Order.
Moscow-China’s Pre-planning
In anticipation to deal with harsh western sanctions, Russia amassed some $600 billion, yuan and gold in reserves, stored huge stacks of grain and other commodity items, and reduced its trade in dollars by 50%. It has replaced visa and master cards with Chinese cards.
China’s central bank operationalized its digital yuan CBCD in 2015 to break the monopoly of petrodollars in trade of oil and gas through US controlled SWIFT.
China’s System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS) is equivalent to the SWIFT financial transfer system developed in 2014. SPFS is likely to be integrated with China based Cross Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS).
The Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) and China have agreed to design the mechanism for an independent international monetary system.
In case Russia and China succeed in importing and exporting oil and gas in ruble, yuan and gold, it will cause a deadly blow to the power of the dollar.
Sanctions are painful but have never been productive. They proved ineffective against Cuba, Iran, Pakistan, North Korea and Venezuela and wouldn’t bend Putin.
USA’s Relations with Arabs & Iran
Some cracks have appeared in the US relations with Saudi Arabia and UAE.
The two princes didn’t answer the phone calls of Biden, and declined the US desire to increase production of oil so as to lower oil prices in the international market that have crossed $ 140 a barrel.
They are going by the policy of OPEC, in which Russia is a key member, and is the third largest oil producing country, and is the largest producer of gas.
Saudis and UAE, the two largest oil producing countries are considering trading oil in yuan.
Boris Johnson air dashed to Riyadh on 16 March on a one-day visit to convince MBS to enhance the oil production, but couldn’t get a commitment.
UAE, which has put the F-35 jets deal on hold has been put in the grey list by the FATF.
Iran has made the renewal of the nuclear deal with the US subject to clearance from Moscow. Iran doesn’t want its oil and gas trade with Russia to get affected by the renewal of the 2015 deal to which Russia is one of the signatory.
Contrasting Foreign Policies
Russia’s past is as sinful as of the West, with Stalin presiding over the massacre of 20 million people in the 1930s.
However, after the end of Cold War, Russia has not embarked upon any external military adventure, nor has meddled into internal affairs of other countries, or ridiculed Islam.
Likewise, China also adopted a defensive policy of peace and friendship after 1978.
Russia and China increased their spheres of influence in the developing world through peaceful means. Putin adopted friendly policies towards the Muslims in Russia and made Chechnya a close ally.
Conversely, the US used its military might, financial power and diplomatic clout to enlarge its presence all around the globe. War on terror was used as a ploy to rob the resources of the Muslim world, and to neo-colonize it.
Sanctions, embargoes, human rights, World Bank, IMF, FATF and proxy wars are other tools of coercion. The UN, ICJ and other world institutions are the US handmaidens.
Islam was ridiculed and demonized by the Western media under a calculated agenda to undermine Islam.
The US has the biggest stockpile of nuclear missiles, and well knowing that Russia has the second largest nuclear arsenal, the US has been constantly provoking Russia by breaching its perimeter of security.
The US administration under the domination of Military Industrial Complex is anti-peace and pro-war, and has established over 800 military bases all over the globe. Since WWII, the US indulged in 19 wars causing deaths to millions.
The US is a Bully
The US behaves like a bully and has never directly locked horns with a big power. It always chose a weak country to fight and yet never won. The two glaring examples are its humiliating defeats in Vietnam and Afghanistan.
China has been warned by the US to stay out of the conflict and not to provide a lifeline to Russia.
The US has also made it clear to its allies to cut off relations with Russia, or be prepared for the consequences. Pakistan is among the countries that was threatened on March 7. Reportedly, it sponsored the no-trust motion moved against Imran Khan’s Government by the band of opposition parties. Imran is being penalized for daring to run an independent foreign policy.
China has made it clear that it will not accept another round of cold war and proxy war in this region.
For the first time the US is provoking the two titans, Russia in Ukraine, and China in South & East China Sea and Taiwan Strait.
The US-Russia showdown has commenced and the US-China showdown is in the making.
Europe as well as Pakistan and India will get sucked into the fight of the big elephants if the war gets prolonged.
NATO’s Prestige Smeared
The Ukraine crisis has given a new lease of life to the West and has helped in uniting the divided EU and NATO, and both the US and EU are taking punitive steps to pressurize Russia to step back.
The US-NATO have yet to prove whether they can stand up to the challenge and turn the tide.
Russia is exposing the impotence of NATO which has already tarnished its reputation in Afghanistan and the Middle East.
Paranoia in India
India has got hedged between the USA, Russia and China and is finding itself caught between the devil and deep sea.
On one side is Russia with which it has had a strategic relationship since the late 1940s. 60-65% of India’s defence equipment is Russian origin.
On the other side is the USA to which it had got married in 1990 out of expediency. India has been drawing huge economic and military benefits, and the US is helping India to become a global power.
China, closely aligned with Russia and nuclear Pakistan, is breathing over India’s neck in the Himalayas.
The US is now expecting that India should pay back by severing ties with Russia, and also become an effective member of QUAD to counter China’s assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region.
For India, joining China-specific QUAD is getting highly risky.
Coming months will see whether India bends down to the dictates of the US, or makes another volte face, quits QUAD and reverts to nonalignment and extends a hand of friendship to China and Pakistan.
Reinvigoration of Cold War
The new Cold War has resurfaced and the two belligerent camps are forming up.
The Ukraine crisis, if not defused, could lead to the worst economic crisis which will have a catastrophic impact upon the world.
With so many flash points, and the climate crisis morphing into an existential threat to humanity, the world has become a powder keg and needs a matchstick in the wrong hands to ignite.
Standoff in Ukraine has revived fears of a nuclear clash and possibly a third world war.
Ground Realities
The realities that cannot be ignored are that shrunk Russia has bounced back on the global central stage, China is the emerging superpower, the US is a declining power, and its global hegemony is unsustainable.
Unipolar world has been replaced by the multipolar world.
NATO will neither establish a no-fly zone, nor become a part of the Ukraine war since it would put the whole of Europe at risk.
Without physical support of the US-NATO forces, Ukraine wouldn’t be able to push back the Russian forces, and will have to come to terms with Moscow through a political settlement.
The US-NATO wants Ukraine to become another graveyard for Russia, and is preferring proxy war over open war, but this time the end result will be not like in Afghanistan.
In case Putin comes out of this war as a victor, it will make Biden politically weak, and his party will have slim chances to win the midterm elections in November 2022.
The Zionists and extremist Jews wishing to rule the world, after pitting Christianity against Islam, has pitted USA against Russia, and will also try to pit USA against China.
Israel is maintaining a balancing act and has so far not imposed sanctions on Russia or provided military support to Ukraine.
After fighting communism for decades and burying it, the US created a new threat and defined Islamic radicalism and terrorism the biggest threat to its international order and capitalism. For next three decades the US-NATO forces bombed Iraq twice in 1991 and in 1998, invaded and occupied Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya, and in its bid to change the regime, destroyed Syria. Yemen, Sudan and Lebanon were also mauled. Large-scale destruction and massacre were undertaken through invasions, proxy wars, drones, sectarian war, in order to gain global hegemony, and to earn profits for the arms industry. Democratic, legal and human rights were thrown out of the window.
The Muslim specific war coupled with expanding NATO’s outreach into East Europe were the most egregious crimes in the post-cold war era.
From 2018 onwards, threat of terrorism has been replaced by Russia-China combine as the new threat to the US national security, for which Biden has sounded war bugles and is quite prepared to soak Europe in blood.
End Result
The US efforts to disrepute Putin have utterly failed. He has become more popular, and as per Levada Centre, over 80% of Russians support his actions. Conversely, Biden’s graph is dropping.
The minimum that Putin might agree on will be to make the Donbas region independent, with Luhansk and Donetsk as People’s Republics, Crimea part of the Russian Federation, and Western Ukraine to become a neutral country.
Zelensky has agreed not to become a NATO member and to make Ukraine neutral subject to security guarantee. He might agree to make Donetsk and Luhansk semi-autonomous instead of independent, and acknowledge Russia’s sovereignty over Crimea.
The US, EU and NATO might reconcile with this arrangement, and would agree to make Ukraine a buffer state between East and West Europe.
Conclusion
Wars, conflicts, civil strife, intrigues, deceit, lies and hypocrisy have become a norm. Putin has called the West an empire of lies. Piety, tolerance and forbearance have been replaced by immorality, intolerance and egotism.
The Western leaders have the moral obligation to call for an immediate end of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine. The atrocities of war must stop immediately and the sanctity of human life and habitats must be assured by all within the global systems of political governance.
Author
Asif Haroon Raja – The writer is a retired Brig Gen, war veteran who took part in the epic battle of Hilli in former East Pakistan in 1971, he is defence, security & political analyst, international columnist, author of five books, Chairman Thinkers Forum Pakistan & Director Measac Research Centre, takes part in TV programs, and delivers talks. [email protected]
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