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Russia-Ukraine Military Standoff Global Implications Part-1 by Brig.Gen(Retd) Asif Haroon Raja

Russia-Ukraine Military Standoff

Global Implications

Part-1

Asif Haroon Raja

“Remember when you leave this earth, you can take with you nothing that you have received, only what you have given, a full heart, enriched by honest service, love, sacrifice and courage.” – St. Francis of Assisi

Cold War

After the end of the 2nd WW, the world was divided into two camps, one led by the USSR and the other by the USA. The nuclear capability of the two superpowers deterred the two rivals from clashing with each other, but they got involved in a prolonged Cold War, which raged till 1991. 

Western Pledge to Gorbachev

Once the Soviet Empire built by Lenin-Stalin began to totter after the defeat and ouster of Soviet forces from Afghanistan in Feb 1989, followed by fall of Berlin wall, the 14 Soviet Republics and the Soviet satellite states started declaring independence.

A conference was held at Bonn in 1989 attended by the officials of USA, UK, France and Germany to discuss the German unification modalities. The participants gave a categorical assurance which was conveyed to Gorbachev through the US ambassador in Moscow Jack Matlock that NATO would remain confined to united Germany and would not push into the territory east of Germany, i.e. Elbe. It was stated that East European countries wouldn’t be offered NATO’s membership.

This pledge was dishonored after the fragmentation of the USSR in 1991 and getting reduced to the Russian Federation. Russia was not even accepted as part of a unified Europe. George H.W. Bush had declared that the First Gulf War against Iraq would usher in a ‘New World Order’ led by the USA. In 1992 came the Wolfowitz Doctrine, envisaging prevention of re-emergence of a new rival. With the demise of communism, Islamic fundamentalism was declared as the new threat to the US international order and capitalism.  

NATO’s Eastward Expansion

The US-NATO launched five waves to expand eastwards. In the first wave, Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic were taken in the fold of NATO in 1999.

In the second wave in 2003-2004, the three Baltic States of Estonia, Latvia and Slovakia were made members of NATO thereby threatening the eastern border of Russia. Pro-Moscow socialist regime in Georgia was replaced with a pro-West regime through color revolution in 2003. Russia reacted in 2008 by making two provinces of Georgia independent.

The 3rd wave was in 2009. In the 4th wave in early 2014, a regime change was made in Ukraine through another color revolution. In reaction, Russian forces captured Crimea in March that year. The 5th eastward wave was in 2019.

In 2021, Washington and Brussels announced their intentions to make Georgia and Ukraine members of NATO. Membership of NATO jumped from 12 to 16 and then to 30.

The last indirect intrusion was in Kazakhstan in Jan 2022 where widespread anti-government protests had almost toppled the pro-Moscow regime, but was rescued by the Russian troops.   

Most of the former Soviet Republics barring few happily helped the US and NATO in encircling Russia. Poland and Romania agreed to deploy the American Ballistic missiles defence system.

President Zelensky allowed the US to establish 25-30 bio-chemical weapons labs in Kiev, Kharkov and Odessa. Reportedly, Israel was also in this business. There are reports of corona virus research labs as well.   

Importance of Ukraine

Ukraine is important to both Russia and the EU since it is the largest country in Europe and rich in mineral resources. It is Europe’s breadbasket and a major exporter of grains.

It provides direct access to Russia’s Gazprom gas field and oil pipelines to Europe. 40% of the gas, and one-quarter of crude oil, are supplied by Russia through Ukraine to Europe. Germany, Italy and the Netherlands are the largest importers of Russian gas.

Loss of Ukraine will directly threaten the security of Russia.

Hence Ukraine which provides strategic depth to Russia, is the vital ground for Russia’s geo-economic and security interests.

Imposition of sanctions on gas from Russia will oblige the EU to import it mainly from the US at triple the price.

Brzezinski stated that ‘Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire, but with Ukraine, suborned and then subjugated, Russia becomes an empire’.

 

Moscow’s Reminders to Washington

The US-NATO were repeatedly advised by Moscow to abandon their Cold War approach, and to respect the sovereignty of other countries and interests, but drunk with power the haughty US-NATO paid no heed to Russia’s security concerns.

Vladimir Putin instead of taking proactive measures to block NATO’s encroachment, he adopted a conciliatory policy with the West. He even collaborated with the US in its war on terror, and didn’t object to the growing US influence in Central Asia.

He and Trump were pally with each other, so much so that Trump was accused by the Democrats of seeking help from Russia to win the 2016 elections.   

Putin Loses his Cool

Once Putin assessed that the aggressors were not prepared to halt their expansion and to remove the strike weapons deployed close to Russia’s borders, and to close the bio-weapon labs, and were about to make Ukraine a member of NATO, he lost his cool, and gradually deployed up to 1, 30,000 Russian forces on the borders of Ukraine from Nov 2021 onwards, and then invaded Ukraine on Feb 24, 2022.

If the US could legalize its policy of pre-emption and step into Afghanistan and the Middle East located 7000 miles away to safeguard its homeland, why can’t Russia do it when its immediate backyard is threatened?

 Ongoing Operations in Ukraine

Large bridgehead has been made in the Donbas region in the east where Luhansk and Donetsk, who had declared their independence were recognized by Moscow on 22 Feb.

From the direction of Crimea in the Kherson region, Russian troops have made deep penetrations and have closed up to Odessa. The southern port city of Mariupol is about to fall. Northwestern suburb of Bucha is entirely held by Russian forces including parts of Irpin, and Kharkiv in the northeast.

Invaders are gradually encircling the capital city Kiev to choke it and force the defenders to surrender. Chernobyl nuclear plant has been seized, and several US funded and run bio-chemical labs destroyed.    

Chechen forces allied with Russian forces are fighting the Ukrainians. 15000 Syrian fighters have volunteered to join Russian forces in Ukraine and Putin has given them a nod.

So far, other than Kherson, no major city has been captured due to stiff resistance by the Ukrainians. 

Over 4 million Ukrainians and others have fled and have become refugees in neighboring states with bulk in Poland. The Refugee issue will blow up further and would create social problems for the host countries.

Both sides have suffered casualties. But, these are no match to the killings and destruction caused by western forces during the war on terror.  

Russia has put its nuclear assets on high alert. Belarus has shed off its non-nuclear status, enabling Russia to deploy its nuclear weapons there. 

Putin views all the former USSR Republics as artificial states propped up by the west, and has sternly warned them to stay out of the conflict. 

Russia is determined to demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine. He is in no mood to pull out his forces until and unless his security concerns are addressed.

He allowed human corridors for the exit of civilians, but actually he wanted to deprive the Ukraine army of the human shield.

He is drawing strength from the support of China, which is also a victim of the US belligerence.

Battle in Ukraine is the battle for the new world order. Like Lenin and Stalin, Putin is seeking to overthrow the US imposed world order which in his view is selfish and unjust. 

Much against the expectations of Putin of a short and swift outcome, the war is dragging on and is likely to get prolonged.

Zelensky’s Pleas Fallen on Deaf Ears

Zelensky, a Jewish TV comedian, is beseeching the US and NATO to come to his rescue, and establish a no-fly-zone to prevent Russian jets from bombing the cities.

UK, Germany, France and other NATO countries have dispatched heavy consignments of missiles, anti-tank and air defence weapons to Ukraine to bolster its spirits. At Brussels, it was decided to double NATO forces on Russia’s border.

The US has deployed two additional Patriot batteries in Poland, sanctioned $ 15 billion aid, and committed a $ I.5 billion military aid package. Biden is now thinking of sending long range anti-aircraft guns for Ukraine.  

Biden declared that the US will defend every inch of NATO territory with full might of a united and galvanized NATO, but will not fight war against Russia since he cannot risk a 3rd WW.

Western media is severely condemning Putin and is painting him a butcher, deranged, an evil monster and a war criminal.

Parleys are taking place between Ukraine and Russia at Istanbul, but so far no breakthrough has been achieved.  

Ukraine’s Legitimacy

It has been revealed that the borders of Ukraine were never demarcated and registered in the UN as a sovereign state. Hence, officially it is part of the former USSR of which Russia is the officially recognized successor state.

Moscow can now claim Ukraine to be its integral part, and whatever is happening there as its internal matter.

 Third World Wooed

The USA and Russia are trying to win over as many countries of the third world to their side to swing the diplomatic balance on their side.

China and Russia stand on a higher moral ground to win the support of the countries of Asia, Middle East and Africa.

China has been helping the debt ridden countries by providing easy loans for social programs, and developing infrastructure.

Russia helped Iran in its missile/ nuclear programs and in easing sanctions, and had a key role in saving the Assad regime in Syria.

On the other hand, prejudice, malice and discrimination against the non-whites have been the guiding principles of the western world.

Today the West has no justification to dub Russia as a war monger since Russia didn’t for once step into the backyard of USA, nor meddled into the internal affairs of other countries, or indulged in proxy wars, or imposed sanctions on any country.

To be continued

The writer is a retired Brig Gen, war veteran who took part in the epic battle of Hilli in former East Pakistan in 1971, he is defence, security & political analyst, international columnist, author of five books, Chairman Thinkers Forum Pakistan & Director Measac Research Centre, takes part in TV programs, and delivers talks. asifharoonraja@gmail.com   

 

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World War III- Russia says don’t even think about military action in Syria

 

Western Attack to Punish Syria Likely to Begin with Barrage of More Than 100 Missiles in 48 Hour Blitz!

Tomahawk_Missile_Launch

  • Western attack to punish Syria likely to begin with barrage of more than 100 missiles in 48 hour blitz! 
    by Ben Farmer, Philip Sherwell and Damien McElroy, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/  
    A British and American attack to punish Syria for using chemical weapons will see the two allies launch a barrage of more than 100 missiles in a blitz lasting up to 48 hours, according to military insiders and diplomatic sources.

    A Royal Navy Trafalgar class submarine will join forces with American warships in the Mediterranean to fire Tomahawk cruise missiles in an attack that is likely to begin within days.

    The missiles would be unleashed to destroy Mr Assad’s command and control facilities, weapons delivery centres, intelligence bases and militia training camps.

    Military commanders sealed agreement on the scope of attacks with regional allies and the Syrian opposition, officials at a two-day summit in Amman said last night.

    The two day meeting in Jordan saw Gen Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the US joint chiefs, and Gen Sir Nick Houghton, the head of Britain’s Armed Forces, set out detailed war plans to service chiefs from 10 countries.

    A Jordanian official said: “There was consensus that the international community must take action in Syria and that missile strikes by naval or air forces would be the best response.”

    read more!

Russian_yakhont_anti-ship_missile_range

Russian made Yakhont missile which the Syria has!

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August 28, 2013 Posted by  | GeoPolitics | Leave a Comment

Muscle-Flexing: UK Deploys Warplanes in Cyprus, 100km from Syria!

WW3 is near?

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August 28, 2013 Posted by  | GeoPolitics | Leave a Comment

Syria: We’ll Strike Israel If US Attacks!

http://edition.cnn.com/2013/05/05/world/meast/syria-violence/index.html

  • “The war in Iraq was conceived by 25 neoconservatives, most of them Jewish, who are pushing President Bush to change the course of history.”     
    – Ari Shavit Ha’aretz News Service (Israel) April 5, 2003

    “A new generation has its hands on the tiller of power…Jewish neocons have emerged as the Pentagon’s Paladins…Most striking is how unmentionable this is in the liberal press…These well-placed hawks are Jewish-Americans and it is their hardcore Zionism that is shaping American foreign policy. Zionism is fast becoming a poisoned chalice…There is real madness here, but who will stop it?”
    – Ann Pettifer  Common Sense December 18, 2002
  • Syria: We’ll Strike Israel If US Attacks
    by Steve Watson, www.Infowars.com 
    A senior Syrian official has warned that Israel will “come under fire” should the United states pursue any military aggression against the Assad regime.

    As reported by the Israeli news site Ynet, Halef al-Muftah, a leading member of the Syrian Ba’ath national council, and a former aide to the Syrian media minister said today that the Syrian government has “strategic weapons aimed at Israel.”

    Making the comments on an American Arabic radio station, Muftah added that Damascus views Israel as being “behind the aggression” and therefore will be retaliated against should the US strike Syria.

    The official also stated that the Syrian government would not be beholden to threats from the US, and added “If the US or Israel err through aggression and exploit the chemical issue, the region will go up in endless flames, affecting not only the area’s security, but the world’s.”

    Over the weekend, reports emerged suggesting that Israeli intelligence has definitive proof that the chemical attacks last week were carried out by the Syrian army.

    According to the German publication Focus, the Israel Defense Forces Unit 8200, the IDF’s signals intelligence unit, intercepted communications of the Syrian army during the attack.

    “A former Mossad officer told FOCUS the analysis has clearly shown that the bombardment with poison gas missiles was made by Syrian government forces,” reports the publication.

    Military hawk Professor John Schindler of the U.S. Naval War College tweeted about the story Sunday, adding that Israel swiftly shared the information with the US and other allies.

    read more!

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/170350#.UfiXy7H2N2F

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2013/07/13/israel-air-strike-syria/2515095/

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/16/world/middleeast/israeli-official-signals-possibility-of-more-syria-strikes.html

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August 28, 2013 Posted by  | GeoPolitics |Leave a Comment

Israel Poised to Attack Syria?

  • Zionist ’666′ Israel, the Satanic counterfeit, the only nation to fly a Satanic ’666′ Hexagram flag, will be used to trigger the Satanic World War 3!
  • Albert Pike, Satanic World War 3 Plan 
    The Third World War must be fomented by taking advantage of the differences caused by the “agentur” of the “Illuminati” between the political Zionists and the leaders of Islamic World. The war must be conducted in such a way that Islam (the Moslem Arabic World) and political Zionism (the State of Israel) mutually destroy each other. …. more!
  • Israel Poised to Attack Syria?  
    by Stephen Lendman, http://sjlendman.blogspot.com 
    Israel partners with Washington’s regional wars. A separate article said America and Britain may attack Syria in days. 

    Perhaps other NATO partners and Israel will be involved. Hawkish Israeli comments suggest it. On Sunday, Netanyahu said Israel’s “finger is on the pulse” of what’s ongoing. It need be, it’ll move to the trigger.

    Shimon Peres called for joint action “to remove all chemical weapons from Syria.” International Relations/Intelligence/Strategic Affairs Minister Yuval Steinitz said it’s “crystal clear” Assad used chemical weapons last week.

    It’s not the first time, he added. He lied saying so. What’s happening in Syria shows “how dangerous it is if Iran is able to complete its military nuclear project and produce atomic bombs,” he added. He called on world leaders to stop Assad. On the one hand, he said Israel won’t interfere in Arab world turmoil.

    On the other, he omitted explaining Israel’s longstanding  involvement. He said Tel Aviv’s “prepared for any scenario.” Israel’s a serial aggressor. It’s history is bloodstained. It prioritizes disproportionate force. It targets civilians like combatants.

    Steinitz barely stopped short of suggesting Israel plans war on Syria. Throughout 2013, it acted provocatively. It’s involved in terrorist attacks on Lebanon. It’s targeting Hezbollah. It’s stoking sectarian conflict.

    Since hostilities began in March 2011, Israel launched several cross-border ground attacks. It made one or more incursions. It conducted four air attacks. It likely plans more. Doing so reflects lawless aggression. They’re Israeli and US specialties. They suggest more coming.

    Some observers believe Israel will attack Hezbollah and Syria. Doing so may coincide with Washington’s intervention. Iran may follow. Longstanding plans prioritize regime change. Israel’s Greater Middle East Agenda matters most. It wants regional rivals removed. It seeks territorial expansion. It wants unchallenged dominance. Washington wants it globally.

    Syria, Lebanon and Iran are targeted. Longstanding US/Israeli plans call for regime change. War is the strategy of choice.

    read more!

“ … it turns out the creation of Israel had not, after all, been a haphazard fight in which the Arabs fled their homes at the directives of their own leaders, but it had been an unprovoked, systematic campaign of ethnic cleansing by the Jewish militia involving massacres, terrorism and the wholesale looting of an entire nation.” from 4:22 onwards

“In 2001, Dr. Ariella Oppenheim, of Hebrew University, a biologist, published the first extensive study of DNA and the origin of the Jews. Her research found that virtually all the Jews came from Khazar blood. Not only that but Oppenheim discovered that the Palestinians—the very people whom the Jews had been persecuting and ejecting from Israel’s land since 1948—had more Israelite blood than did the Jews. In sum, the vast majority of the Jews were not Jews; some of the Palestinians were. Some of the Palestinians even had a DNA chromosome which established that they were “Cohens”—workers at the ancient Temple and synagogues of the Jews.” – Quote

http://www.democracynow.org/2013/1/29/the_gatekeepers_in_new_film_ex#.UQf8XvB8aRA.email

“Shalom (Ex ShinBet chief) shocked viewers. He called Israeli occupation no different from Nazi occupied Europe.” – Quote

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