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Posted by admin in CURRENT EVENTS, Europe, RUSSIA, Ukraine on March 19th, 2022
“Where justice is denied, where poverty is enforced, where ignorance prevails, and where any one class is made to feel that society is an organized conspiracy to oppress, rob and degrade them, neither persons nor property will be safe.” – Frederick Douglass
Obtaining Situation in Ukraine
Biden has announced a $ I billion military aid package and decided to send long range anti-aircraft guns to Ukraine. NATO has increased its forces on the eastern flank of Russia in the Baltic States, but has no plans to send troops into Ukraine. Physical clashes and battle of minds are raging and both sides are slapping sanctions. Much against the expectations of Putin of a short and swift outcome, the war is dragging on and President Zelensky is not giving up. Moscow-Kiev parleys are going on, but Zelensky has not agreed to the Russian demand of making Ukraine a neutral country. He is egging on the US and NATO to send forces and is equating the situation to Pearl Harbor.
Third World Wooed
The USA and Russia are trying to win over as many countries of the third world to their side to swing the diplomatic balance on their side.
Russia and China stand on a higher moral ground to win the support of the countries of Asia, Middle East and Africa since they were not harmed by the two. China in particular has been helping the debt ridden and low income countries by providing easy loans for social programs, developing infrastructure and improving their economies.
Russia helped Iran in its missile/ nuclear programs and in easing sanctions, and had a key role in saving the Assad regime in Syria.
Both Russia and China are against the fascist and racist policies of the US and Israel, apartheid, the capitalist system and the monopoly of petrodollars.
On the other hand, prejudice, malice and discrimination against the non-whites have been the guiding principles of the western world. The only exception is India, or their close allies like Japan and South Korea. Putin has called the west an empire of lies.
Today the West has no reason and justification to cry foul and dub Russia as a war monger and an aggressor since Russia didn’t for once step into the backyard of USA, nor meddled into the internal affairs of other countries, or brought about regime changes through proxy wars and clandestine operations, or imposed sanctions on any country.
USA’s Policy of Sanctions
“Remember when you leave this earth, you can take with you nothing that you have received, only what you have given, a full heart, enriched by honest service, love, sacrifice and courage.” – St. Francis of Assisi
To compel Russia to pull out its troops, the US and EU took no time to impose a series of tough sanctions on Russia, and have closed airspaces for the Russian air movement. Anything Russian has been boycotted. The US has told Europe not to buy oil and gas from Russia. Russia’s $ 300 billion have been frozen. Purpose is to isolate Russia, crash its economy and bleed it to death through sanctions. Fifth columnists in Russia have been activated by the CIA to create trouble. Consequently, Russia has become the most sanctioned country after Iran.
Bugles of Pax-Americana sounded by George Bush after 9/11 have now been blown by Joe Biden. He has made it clear to the allies to submit to the US dictates or get perished. Neutrality is not an exercisable option.
Moscow-China’s Foreplaning
Russia is not wilting since in collusion with its strategic partner China, it had foreplaned how to deal with the hardships of sanctions.
Russia has amassed some $600 billion, yuan and gold in reserves, stored huge stacks of grain and other commodity items, and reduced its trade in dollars by 50%. Russia has replaced visa and master cards with Chinese cards.
China and Russia are trying to build an alternative monetary system in order to overcome the dilemma of sanctions imposed on Russian banks.
China’s central bank operationalized its digital yuan CBCD in 2015 to break the monopoly of petrodollars in trade of oil and gas through US controlled SWIFT. China’s System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS) is equivalent to the SWIFT financial transfer system developed in 2014. SPFS is likely to be integrated with China based Cross Border InterBank Payment System (CIPS).
The Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) and China have agreed to design the mechanism for an independent international monetary system. China’s forex reserves are $3222.4.
Gas supply to Germany from Gazprom has been cut off by Russia.
In case Russia and China succeed in importing and exporting oil and gas in ruble, yuan and gold, it will cause a deadly blow to the power of the dollar.
Sanctions are painful but have never been productive. They proved ineffective against Cuba, Iran, Pakistan, North Korea and Venezuela and wouldn’t bend Putin.
USA’s Relations with Arabs & Iran
Some cracks have appeared in the US relations with Saudi Arabia and UAE. The two princes didn’t answer the phone calls made by Biden and have declined the US desire to increase production of oil so as to lower oil prices in the international market that have touched $ 140 a barrel. They are going by the policy of OPEC in which Russia is a key member. Saudis and UAE, the two largest oil producing countries are considering trading oil in yuan. Boris Johnson air dashed to Riyadh on 16 March on a one-day visit to convince MBS to enhance the oil production but couldn’t get a commitment. UAE, which has put the F-35 jets deal on hold has been put in the grey list by the FATF.
Iran has made the renewal of the nuclear deal with the US subject to clearance from Moscow. Iran doesn’t want its oil and gas trade with Russia to get affected by the 2015 deal to which Russia is one of the signatory. Russia is among the largest oil producing countries and is the largest producer of gas.
Contrasting Foreign Policies
Although Russia’s past is as sinful as of the west, with Stalin presiding over the massacre of 20 million people in the 1930s, however, after the USSR’s dismemberment in 1991, Russia has not embarked upon any external military adventure, nor has meddled into internal affairs of other countries, or ridiculed Islam. By and large it has pursued a peaceful foreign policy.
Likewise, China also adopted a defensive policy of peace and friendship after 1978, although it is accused of persecuting the Uighur Muslims. Xingjian is being developed at a fast rate so as to curb extremism and separatist movements.
Russia and China increased their spheres of influence in the developing world through peaceful means. Putin adopted friendly policies towards the Muslims in Russia and made Chechnya a close ally.
Conversely, the US used its military might, financial power and diplomatic clout to enlarge its presence all around the globe. War on terror was used as a ploy to rob the resources of the Muslim world and to neo colonize it.
Tools of US Blackmails Against Nations
Sanctions, embargoes, human rights, World Bank, IMF, FATF and proxy wars are other tools of coercion. The UN, ICJ and other world institutions are the US handmaidens.
Islam was ridiculed and demonized by the Western media under a calculated agenda. Caricatures of the Holy Prophet Muhammad PBUH were repeatedly published to injure the feelings of the Muslims and to undermine Islam.
The US has the biggest stockpile of nuclear missiles and well knowing that Russia has the second largest nuclear arsenal with 4497 nukes, the US has constantly been provoking Russia by militarily encircling it and breaching it’s perimeter of security.
The US administration under the hegemony of Military Industrial Complex is anti-peace and pro-war and has established over 800 military bases all over the globe. Since WW 11, the US indulged in 19 wars causing deaths to over 21 million people. It has striven to control the sea lanes in all the oceans, and Eurasia. Domination of global supply chains by the emerging superpower China is one of the major reasons for the US antagonism against China.
The US is a Bully
The US has never directly locked horns with a big power and always chose a weak country to fight and yet never won. The two glaring examples are its humiliating defeats in Vietnam and Afghanistan.
The US has behaved like a bully. It has warned China to stay out of the conflict and not to provide a lifeline to Russia. The US has also made it clear to its allies to cut off relations with Russia.
For the first time the US is provoking the two titans, Russia in Ukraine, and China in South & East China Sea and Taiwan Strait.
Biden declared that the US will defend every inch of NATO territory with full might of a united and galvanized NATO, but will not fight war against Russia since he cannot risk a 3rd WW.
The US-Russia showdown has commenced and the US-China showdown is in the making. Both Pakistan and India will get sucked into the fight of the big elephants.
NATO’s Prestige Smeared
Although the Ukraine crisis has given a new lease of life to the west and has helped in uniting the divided EU and NATO, and both the US and EU are taking punitive steps to pressurize Russia to step back, they have yet to prove whether they can stand up to the challenge and turn the tide.
Russia has exposed the impotence of NATO which has already tarnished its reputation in Afghanistan and the Middle East.
Paranoia in India
India has got hedged between the USA, Russia and China and is finding itself caught between the devil and deep sea. On one side is Russia with which it has had a strategic relationship since the late 1940s. 60-65% of India’s defence equipment is Russian origin and Russia never blackmailed India.
On the other side is the glowering USA to which it had got married in 1990 out of expediency and has been drawing huge economic and military benefits and has been helping it to become a global power. China is closely aligned with Russia and nuclear Pakistan is breathing over its neck in the Himalayas.
Today the US is demanding that India should pay back by severing ties with Russia and also become an effective member of QUAD to counter China’s assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region. For India, joining China-specific QUAD is getting highly risky.
Coming weeks will see whether India bends down to the dictates of the US, or makes another volte face, quits QUAD and reverts to nonalignment and extends a hand of friendship to China and Pakistan.
Reinvigoration of Cold War
The Cold War has reemerged with a big bang and the two belligerent camps are forming up. President Erdogan is eagerly awaiting the revival of the caliphate in 2023 that was terminated in 1924 by the European powers. War mongers and spoilers are pitched against peacemakers. The Ukraine crisis, if not defused, could lead to the worst global economic crisis which will have a catastrophic impact upon the unprivileged classes.
With so many flash points, and the climate crisis due to global warming morphing into an existential threat to humanity, the world has become a powder keg and needs a matchstick in the wrong hands to ignite. Standoff in Ukraine has revived fears of a nuclear clash and possibly a third world war.
Ground Realities
“Human progress is neither automatic nor inevitable… Every step toward the goal of justice requires sacrifice, suffering, and struggle; the tireless exertions and passionate concern of dedicated individuals.” – Martin Luther King, Jr.
The realities that cannot be ignored are that dwarfed Russia has bounced back on the global central stage, China is the emerging superpower and the US is a declining power, and its global hegemony is unsustainable.
Unipolarism has been replaced by multipolarism.
The Zionists and extremist Jews wishing to rule the world, after pitching Christianity against Islam have now pitched USA against Russia, and will soon pitch USA against China. Depopulation of the world is also the Zionist game.
Democracy has waned and Far Right and Far Left have become stronger.
Arms industries of the big powers are contracting huge defence deals with the needy weaker countries, which is adding to the suffering of the deprived classes.
Wars, conflicts, civil strife, intrigues, deceit and lies have become a norm.
Piety, tolerance and forbearance have been replaced by immorality, intolerance and egotism. The world as a whole has become turbulent and insecure.
May Allah guide the megalomaniac powers to follow the path of righteousness, tolerance and co-existence!
Concluded
The writer is retired Brig Gen, war veteran, defence & security analyst, international columnist, author of five books, and 6th book under publication, takes part in TV talk shows and delivers talks on current issues. asifharoonraja@gmail.com
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Russia-Ukraine Military Standoff Global Implications Part-1 by Brig.Gen(Retd) Asif Haroon Raja
Posted by admin in Anchor & Commentators, Asif Haroon Raja (Retd):Pakistan Army, Brig (Retd).Asif Haroon Raja's Column, OPINION LEADER on April 2nd, 2022
Russia-Ukraine Military Standoff
Global Implications
Part-1
Asif Haroon Raja
“Remember when you leave this earth, you can take with you nothing that you have received, only what you have given, a full heart, enriched by honest service, love, sacrifice and courage.” – St. Francis of Assisi
Cold War
After the end of the 2nd WW, the world was divided into two camps, one led by the USSR and the other by the USA. The nuclear capability of the two superpowers deterred the two rivals from clashing with each other, but they got involved in a prolonged Cold War, which raged till 1991.
Western Pledge to Gorbachev
Once the Soviet Empire built by Lenin-Stalin began to totter after the defeat and ouster of Soviet forces from Afghanistan in Feb 1989, followed by fall of Berlin wall, the 14 Soviet Republics and the Soviet satellite states started declaring independence.
A conference was held at Bonn in 1989 attended by the officials of USA, UK, France and Germany to discuss the German unification modalities. The participants gave a categorical assurance which was conveyed to Gorbachev through the US ambassador in Moscow Jack Matlock that NATO would remain confined to united Germany and would not push into the territory east of Germany, i.e. Elbe. It was stated that East European countries wouldn’t be offered NATO’s membership.
This pledge was dishonored after the fragmentation of the USSR in 1991 and getting reduced to the Russian Federation. Russia was not even accepted as part of a unified Europe. George H.W. Bush had declared that the First Gulf War against Iraq would usher in a ‘New World Order’ led by the USA. In 1992 came the Wolfowitz Doctrine, envisaging prevention of re-emergence of a new rival. With the demise of communism, Islamic fundamentalism was declared as the new threat to the US international order and capitalism.
NATO’s Eastward Expansion
The US-NATO launched five waves to expand eastwards. In the first wave, Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic were taken in the fold of NATO in 1999.
In the second wave in 2003-2004, the three Baltic States of Estonia, Latvia and Slovakia were made members of NATO thereby threatening the eastern border of Russia. Pro-Moscow socialist regime in Georgia was replaced with a pro-West regime through color revolution in 2003. Russia reacted in 2008 by making two provinces of Georgia independent.
The 3rd wave was in 2009. In the 4th wave in early 2014, a regime change was made in Ukraine through another color revolution. In reaction, Russian forces captured Crimea in March that year. The 5th eastward wave was in 2019.
In 2021, Washington and Brussels announced their intentions to make Georgia and Ukraine members of NATO. Membership of NATO jumped from 12 to 16 and then to 30.
The last indirect intrusion was in Kazakhstan in Jan 2022 where widespread anti-government protests had almost toppled the pro-Moscow regime, but was rescued by the Russian troops.
Most of the former Soviet Republics barring few happily helped the US and NATO in encircling Russia. Poland and Romania agreed to deploy the American Ballistic missiles defence system.
President Zelensky allowed the US to establish 25-30 bio-chemical weapons labs in Kiev, Kharkov and Odessa. Reportedly, Israel was also in this business. There are reports of corona virus research labs as well.
Importance of Ukraine
Ukraine is important to both Russia and the EU since it is the largest country in Europe and rich in mineral resources. It is Europe’s breadbasket and a major exporter of grains.
It provides direct access to Russia’s Gazprom gas field and oil pipelines to Europe. 40% of the gas, and one-quarter of crude oil, are supplied by Russia through Ukraine to Europe. Germany, Italy and the Netherlands are the largest importers of Russian gas.
Loss of Ukraine will directly threaten the security of Russia.
Hence Ukraine which provides strategic depth to Russia, is the vital ground for Russia’s geo-economic and security interests.
Imposition of sanctions on gas from Russia will oblige the EU to import it mainly from the US at triple the price.
Brzezinski stated that ‘Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire, but with Ukraine, suborned and then subjugated, Russia becomes an empire’.
Moscow’s Reminders to Washington
The US-NATO were repeatedly advised by Moscow to abandon their Cold War approach, and to respect the sovereignty of other countries and interests, but drunk with power the haughty US-NATO paid no heed to Russia’s security concerns.
Vladimir Putin instead of taking proactive measures to block NATO’s encroachment, he adopted a conciliatory policy with the West. He even collaborated with the US in its war on terror, and didn’t object to the growing US influence in Central Asia.
He and Trump were pally with each other, so much so that Trump was accused by the Democrats of seeking help from Russia to win the 2016 elections.
Putin Loses his Cool
Once Putin assessed that the aggressors were not prepared to halt their expansion and to remove the strike weapons deployed close to Russia’s borders, and to close the bio-weapon labs, and were about to make Ukraine a member of NATO, he lost his cool, and gradually deployed up to 1, 30,000 Russian forces on the borders of Ukraine from Nov 2021 onwards, and then invaded Ukraine on Feb 24, 2022.
If the US could legalize its policy of pre-emption and step into Afghanistan and the Middle East located 7000 miles away to safeguard its homeland, why can’t Russia do it when its immediate backyard is threatened?
Ongoing Operations in Ukraine
Large bridgehead has been made in the Donbas region in the east where Luhansk and Donetsk, who had declared their independence were recognized by Moscow on 22 Feb.
From the direction of Crimea in the Kherson region, Russian troops have made deep penetrations and have closed up to Odessa. The southern port city of Mariupol is about to fall. Northwestern suburb of Bucha is entirely held by Russian forces including parts of Irpin, and Kharkiv in the northeast.
Invaders are gradually encircling the capital city Kiev to choke it and force the defenders to surrender. Chernobyl nuclear plant has been seized, and several US funded and run bio-chemical labs destroyed.
Chechen forces allied with Russian forces are fighting the Ukrainians. 15000 Syrian fighters have volunteered to join Russian forces in Ukraine and Putin has given them a nod.
So far, other than Kherson, no major city has been captured due to stiff resistance by the Ukrainians.
Over 4 million Ukrainians and others have fled and have become refugees in neighboring states with bulk in Poland. The Refugee issue will blow up further and would create social problems for the host countries.
Both sides have suffered casualties. But, these are no match to the killings and destruction caused by western forces during the war on terror.
Russia has put its nuclear assets on high alert. Belarus has shed off its non-nuclear status, enabling Russia to deploy its nuclear weapons there.
Putin views all the former USSR Republics as artificial states propped up by the west, and has sternly warned them to stay out of the conflict.
Russia is determined to demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine. He is in no mood to pull out his forces until and unless his security concerns are addressed.
He allowed human corridors for the exit of civilians, but actually he wanted to deprive the Ukraine army of the human shield.
He is drawing strength from the support of China, which is also a victim of the US belligerence.
Battle in Ukraine is the battle for the new world order. Like Lenin and Stalin, Putin is seeking to overthrow the US imposed world order which in his view is selfish and unjust.
Much against the expectations of Putin of a short and swift outcome, the war is dragging on and is likely to get prolonged.
Zelensky’s Pleas Fallen on Deaf Ears
Zelensky, a Jewish TV comedian, is beseeching the US and NATO to come to his rescue, and establish a no-fly-zone to prevent Russian jets from bombing the cities.
UK, Germany, France and other NATO countries have dispatched heavy consignments of missiles, anti-tank and air defence weapons to Ukraine to bolster its spirits. At Brussels, it was decided to double NATO forces on Russia’s border.
The US has deployed two additional Patriot batteries in Poland, sanctioned $ 15 billion aid, and committed a $ I.5 billion military aid package. Biden is now thinking of sending long range anti-aircraft guns for Ukraine.
Biden declared that the US will defend every inch of NATO territory with full might of a united and galvanized NATO, but will not fight war against Russia since he cannot risk a 3rd WW.
Western media is severely condemning Putin and is painting him a butcher, deranged, an evil monster and a war criminal.
Parleys are taking place between Ukraine and Russia at Istanbul, but so far no breakthrough has been achieved.
Ukraine’s Legitimacy
It has been revealed that the borders of Ukraine were never demarcated and registered in the UN as a sovereign state. Hence, officially it is part of the former USSR of which Russia is the officially recognized successor state.
Moscow can now claim Ukraine to be its integral part, and whatever is happening there as its internal matter.
Third World Wooed
The USA and Russia are trying to win over as many countries of the third world to their side to swing the diplomatic balance on their side.
China and Russia stand on a higher moral ground to win the support of the countries of Asia, Middle East and Africa.
China has been helping the debt ridden countries by providing easy loans for social programs, and developing infrastructure.
Russia helped Iran in its missile/ nuclear programs and in easing sanctions, and had a key role in saving the Assad regime in Syria.
On the other hand, prejudice, malice and discrimination against the non-whites have been the guiding principles of the western world.
Today the West has no justification to dub Russia as a war monger since Russia didn’t for once step into the backyard of USA, nor meddled into the internal affairs of other countries, or indulged in proxy wars, or imposed sanctions on any country.
To be continued
The writer is a retired Brig Gen, war veteran who took part in the epic battle of Hilli in former East Pakistan in 1971, he is defence, security & political analyst, international columnist, author of five books, Chairman Thinkers Forum Pakistan & Director Measac Research Centre, takes part in TV programs, and delivers talks. asifharoonraja@gmail.com
Russia, Russia Putin Warning, Zelensky
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