Russia-Ukraine Military Standoff
Global Implications
Part-2
Asif Haroon Raja
“Where justice is denied, where poverty is enforced, where ignorance prevails, and where any one class is made to feel that society is an organized conspiracy to oppress, rob and degrade them, neither persons nor property will be safe.” – Frederick Douglass
USA’s Policy of Sanctions
To compel Russia to pull out its troops, the US and EU took no time to impose a series of tough sanctions on Russia, and closed airspaces for the Russian air movement. The US told Europe to boycott Russian goods and not to buy oil and gas from Russia. Russia’s $ 300 billion have been frozen in the US/European banks.
Consequently, Russia has become the most sanctioned country after Iran.
Purpose is to isolate Russia, make it bankrupt, bring a regime and install a puppet regime in Moscow.
Blackwater in Ukraine has been activated by the CIA to create trouble.
In Poland, Joe Biden gave a call saying “Putin cannot remain in power”. Russians are being invited to topple Putin’s regime. He also hinted that it will be a long war. Nine months earlier, he had declared that “it’s time to end the war forever”.
He is now justifying the long haul under the plea of fighting a great battle between democracy and autocracy, between liberty and repression. He uttered these holy words ignoring that George Bush senior and junior had also raised similar slogans to justify their brutal invasions. He also forgot that Poland is ruled by an ultra-right xenophobe regime under President Duda. Biden’s jingoism points towards another New World Order.
Moscow-China’s Pre-planning
In anticipation to deal with harsh western sanctions, Russia amassed some $600 billion, yuan and gold in reserves, stored huge stacks of grain and other commodity items, and reduced its trade in dollars by 50%. It has replaced visa and master cards with Chinese cards.
China’s central bank operationalized its digital yuan CBCD in 2015 to break the monopoly of petrodollars in trade of oil and gas through US controlled SWIFT.
China’s System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS) is equivalent to the SWIFT financial transfer system developed in 2014. SPFS is likely to be integrated with China based Cross Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS).
The Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) and China have agreed to design the mechanism for an independent international monetary system.
In case Russia and China succeed in importing and exporting oil and gas in ruble, yuan and gold, it will cause a deadly blow to the power of the dollar.
Sanctions are painful but have never been productive. They proved ineffective against Cuba, Iran, Pakistan, North Korea and Venezuela and wouldn’t bend Putin.
USA’s Relations with Arabs & Iran
Some cracks have appeared in the US relations with Saudi Arabia and UAE.
The two princes didn’t answer the phone calls of Biden, and declined the US desire to increase production of oil so as to lower oil prices in the international market that have crossed $ 140 a barrel.
They are going by the policy of OPEC, in which Russia is a key member, and is the third largest oil producing country, and is the largest producer of gas.
Saudis and UAE, the two largest oil producing countries are considering trading oil in yuan.
Boris Johnson air dashed to Riyadh on 16 March on a one-day visit to convince MBS to enhance the oil production, but couldn’t get a commitment.
UAE, which has put the F-35 jets deal on hold has been put in the grey list by the FATF.
Iran has made the renewal of the nuclear deal with the US subject to clearance from Moscow. Iran doesn’t want its oil and gas trade with Russia to get affected by the renewal of the 2015 deal to which Russia is one of the signatory.
Contrasting Foreign Policies
Russia’s past is as sinful as of the West, with Stalin presiding over the massacre of 20 million people in the 1930s.
However, after the end of Cold War, Russia has not embarked upon any external military adventure, nor has meddled into internal affairs of other countries, or ridiculed Islam.
Likewise, China also adopted a defensive policy of peace and friendship after 1978.
Russia and China increased their spheres of influence in the developing world through peaceful means. Putin adopted friendly policies towards the Muslims in Russia and made Chechnya a close ally.
Conversely, the US used its military might, financial power and diplomatic clout to enlarge its presence all around the globe. War on terror was used as a ploy to rob the resources of the Muslim world, and to neo-colonize it.
Sanctions, embargoes, human rights, World Bank, IMF, FATF and proxy wars are other tools of coercion. The UN, ICJ and other world institutions are the US handmaidens.
Islam was ridiculed and demonized by the Western media under a calculated agenda to undermine Islam.
The US has the biggest stockpile of nuclear missiles, and well knowing that Russia has the second largest nuclear arsenal, the US has been constantly provoking Russia by breaching its perimeter of security.
The US administration under the domination of Military Industrial Complex is anti-peace and pro-war, and has established over 800 military bases all over the globe. Since WWII, the US indulged in 19 wars causing deaths to millions.
The US is a Bully
The US behaves like a bully and has never directly locked horns with a big power. It always chose a weak country to fight and yet never won. The two glaring examples are its humiliating defeats in Vietnam and Afghanistan.
China has been warned by the US to stay out of the conflict and not to provide a lifeline to Russia.
The US has also made it clear to its allies to cut off relations with Russia, or be prepared for the consequences. Pakistan is among the countries that was threatened on March 7. Reportedly, it sponsored the no-trust motion moved against Imran Khan’s Government by the band of opposition parties. Imran is being penalized for daring to run an independent foreign policy.
China has made it clear that it will not accept another round of cold war and proxy war in this region.
For the first time the US is provoking the two titans, Russia in Ukraine, and China in South & East China Sea and Taiwan Strait.
The US-Russia showdown has commenced and the US-China showdown is in the making.
Europe as well as Pakistan and India will get sucked into the fight of the big elephants if the war gets prolonged.
NATO’s Prestige Smeared
The Ukraine crisis has given a new lease of life to the West and has helped in uniting the divided EU and NATO, and both the US and EU are taking punitive steps to pressurize Russia to step back.
The US-NATO have yet to prove whether they can stand up to the challenge and turn the tide.
Russia is exposing the impotence of NATO which has already tarnished its reputation in Afghanistan and the Middle East.
Paranoia in India
India has got hedged between the USA, Russia and China and is finding itself caught between the devil and deep sea.
On one side is Russia with which it has had a strategic relationship since the late 1940s. 60-65% of India’s defence equipment is Russian origin.
On the other side is the USA to which it had got married in 1990 out of expediency. India has been drawing huge economic and military benefits, and the US is helping India to become a global power.
China, closely aligned with Russia and nuclear Pakistan, is breathing over India’s neck in the Himalayas.
The US is now expecting that India should pay back by severing ties with Russia, and also become an effective member of QUAD to counter China’s assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region.
For India, joining China-specific QUAD is getting highly risky.
Coming months will see whether India bends down to the dictates of the US, or makes another volte face, quits QUAD and reverts to nonalignment and extends a hand of friendship to China and Pakistan.
Reinvigoration of Cold War
The new Cold War has resurfaced and the two belligerent camps are forming up.
The Ukraine crisis, if not defused, could lead to the worst economic crisis which will have a catastrophic impact upon the world.
With so many flash points, and the climate crisis morphing into an existential threat to humanity, the world has become a powder keg and needs a matchstick in the wrong hands to ignite.
Standoff in Ukraine has revived fears of a nuclear clash and possibly a third world war.
Ground Realities
The realities that cannot be ignored are that shrunk Russia has bounced back on the global central stage, China is the emerging superpower, the US is a declining power, and its global hegemony is unsustainable.
Unipolar world has been replaced by the multipolar world.
NATO will neither establish a no-fly zone, nor become a part of the Ukraine war since it would put the whole of Europe at risk.
Without physical support of the US-NATO forces, Ukraine wouldn’t be able to push back the Russian forces, and will have to come to terms with Moscow through a political settlement.
The US-NATO wants Ukraine to become another graveyard for Russia, and is preferring proxy war over open war, but this time the end result will be not like in Afghanistan.
In case Putin comes out of this war as a victor, it will make Biden politically weak, and his party will have slim chances to win the midterm elections in November 2022.
The Zionists and extremist Jews wishing to rule the world, after pitting Christianity against Islam, has pitted USA against Russia, and will also try to pit USA against China.
Israel is maintaining a balancing act and has so far not imposed sanctions on Russia or provided military support to Ukraine.
After fighting communism for decades and burying it, the US created a new threat and defined Islamic radicalism and terrorism the biggest threat to its international order and capitalism. For next three decades the US-NATO forces bombed Iraq twice in 1991 and in 1998, invaded and occupied Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya, and in its bid to change the regime, destroyed Syria. Yemen, Sudan and Lebanon were also mauled. Large-scale destruction and massacre were undertaken through invasions, proxy wars, drones, sectarian war, in order to gain global hegemony, and to earn profits for the arms industry. Democratic, legal and human rights were thrown out of the window.
The Muslim specific war coupled with expanding NATO’s outreach into East Europe were the most egregious crimes in the post-cold war era.
From 2018 onwards, threat of terrorism has been replaced by Russia-China combine as the new threat to the US national security, for which Biden has sounded war bugles and is quite prepared to soak Europe in blood.
End Result
The US efforts to disrepute Putin have utterly failed. He has become more popular, and as per Levada Centre, over 80% of Russians support his actions. Conversely, Biden’s graph is dropping.
The minimum that Putin might agree on will be to make the Donbas region independent, with Luhansk and Donetsk as People’s Republics, Crimea part of the Russian Federation, and Western Ukraine to become a neutral country.
Zelensky has agreed not to become a NATO member and to make Ukraine neutral subject to security guarantee. He might agree to make Donetsk and Luhansk semi-autonomous instead of independent, and acknowledge Russia’s sovereignty over Crimea.
The US, EU and NATO might reconcile with this arrangement, and would agree to make Ukraine a buffer state between East and West Europe.
Conclusion
Wars, conflicts, civil strife, intrigues, deceit, lies and hypocrisy have become a norm. Putin has called the West an empire of lies. Piety, tolerance and forbearance have been replaced by immorality, intolerance and egotism.
The Western leaders have the moral obligation to call for an immediate end of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine. The atrocities of war must stop immediately and the sanctity of human life and habitats must be assured by all within the global systems of political governance.
Author
Asif Haroon Raja – The writer is a retired Brig Gen, war veteran who took part in the epic battle of Hilli in former East Pakistan in 1971, he is defence, security & political analyst, international columnist, author of five books, Chairman Thinkers Forum Pakistan & Director Measac Research Centre, takes part in TV programs, and delivers talks. [email protected]
Russia-Ukraine Military Standoff Global Implications Part-2 by Brig Gen(Retd) Asif Haroon Raja
Russia-Ukraine Military Standoff
Global Implications
Part-2
Asif Haroon Raja
“Where justice is denied, where poverty is enforced, where ignorance prevails, and where any one class is made to feel that society is an organized conspiracy to oppress, rob and degrade them, neither persons nor property will be safe.” – Frederick Douglass
USA’s Policy of Sanctions
To compel Russia to pull out its troops, the US and EU took no time to impose a series of tough sanctions on Russia, and closed airspaces for the Russian air movement. The US told Europe to boycott Russian goods and not to buy oil and gas from Russia. Russia’s $ 300 billion have been frozen in the US/European banks.
Consequently, Russia has become the most sanctioned country after Iran.
Purpose is to isolate Russia, make it bankrupt, bring a regime and install a puppet regime in Moscow.
Blackwater in Ukraine has been activated by the CIA to create trouble.
In Poland, Joe Biden gave a call saying “Putin cannot remain in power”. Russians are being invited to topple Putin’s regime. He also hinted that it will be a long war. Nine months earlier, he had declared that “it’s time to end the war forever”.
He is now justifying the long haul under the plea of fighting a great battle between democracy and autocracy, between liberty and repression. He uttered these holy words ignoring that George Bush senior and junior had also raised similar slogans to justify their brutal invasions. He also forgot that Poland is ruled by an ultra-right xenophobe regime under President Duda. Biden’s jingoism points towards another New World Order.
Moscow-China’s Pre-planning
In anticipation to deal with harsh western sanctions, Russia amassed some $600 billion, yuan and gold in reserves, stored huge stacks of grain and other commodity items, and reduced its trade in dollars by 50%. It has replaced visa and master cards with Chinese cards.
China’s central bank operationalized its digital yuan CBCD in 2015 to break the monopoly of petrodollars in trade of oil and gas through US controlled SWIFT.
China’s System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS) is equivalent to the SWIFT financial transfer system developed in 2014. SPFS is likely to be integrated with China based Cross Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS).
The Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) and China have agreed to design the mechanism for an independent international monetary system.
In case Russia and China succeed in importing and exporting oil and gas in ruble, yuan and gold, it will cause a deadly blow to the power of the dollar.
Sanctions are painful but have never been productive. They proved ineffective against Cuba, Iran, Pakistan, North Korea and Venezuela and wouldn’t bend Putin.
USA’s Relations with Arabs & Iran
Some cracks have appeared in the US relations with Saudi Arabia and UAE.
The two princes didn’t answer the phone calls of Biden, and declined the US desire to increase production of oil so as to lower oil prices in the international market that have crossed $ 140 a barrel.
They are going by the policy of OPEC, in which Russia is a key member, and is the third largest oil producing country, and is the largest producer of gas.
Saudis and UAE, the two largest oil producing countries are considering trading oil in yuan.
Boris Johnson air dashed to Riyadh on 16 March on a one-day visit to convince MBS to enhance the oil production, but couldn’t get a commitment.
UAE, which has put the F-35 jets deal on hold has been put in the grey list by the FATF.
Iran has made the renewal of the nuclear deal with the US subject to clearance from Moscow. Iran doesn’t want its oil and gas trade with Russia to get affected by the renewal of the 2015 deal to which Russia is one of the signatory.
Contrasting Foreign Policies
Russia’s past is as sinful as of the West, with Stalin presiding over the massacre of 20 million people in the 1930s.
However, after the end of Cold War, Russia has not embarked upon any external military adventure, nor has meddled into internal affairs of other countries, or ridiculed Islam.
Likewise, China also adopted a defensive policy of peace and friendship after 1978.
Russia and China increased their spheres of influence in the developing world through peaceful means. Putin adopted friendly policies towards the Muslims in Russia and made Chechnya a close ally.
Conversely, the US used its military might, financial power and diplomatic clout to enlarge its presence all around the globe. War on terror was used as a ploy to rob the resources of the Muslim world, and to neo-colonize it.
Sanctions, embargoes, human rights, World Bank, IMF, FATF and proxy wars are other tools of coercion. The UN, ICJ and other world institutions are the US handmaidens.
Islam was ridiculed and demonized by the Western media under a calculated agenda to undermine Islam.
The US has the biggest stockpile of nuclear missiles, and well knowing that Russia has the second largest nuclear arsenal, the US has been constantly provoking Russia by breaching its perimeter of security.
The US administration under the domination of Military Industrial Complex is anti-peace and pro-war, and has established over 800 military bases all over the globe. Since WWII, the US indulged in 19 wars causing deaths to millions.
The US is a Bully
The US behaves like a bully and has never directly locked horns with a big power. It always chose a weak country to fight and yet never won. The two glaring examples are its humiliating defeats in Vietnam and Afghanistan.
China has been warned by the US to stay out of the conflict and not to provide a lifeline to Russia.
The US has also made it clear to its allies to cut off relations with Russia, or be prepared for the consequences. Pakistan is among the countries that was threatened on March 7. Reportedly, it sponsored the no-trust motion moved against Imran Khan’s Government by the band of opposition parties. Imran is being penalized for daring to run an independent foreign policy.
China has made it clear that it will not accept another round of cold war and proxy war in this region.
For the first time the US is provoking the two titans, Russia in Ukraine, and China in South & East China Sea and Taiwan Strait.
The US-Russia showdown has commenced and the US-China showdown is in the making.
Europe as well as Pakistan and India will get sucked into the fight of the big elephants if the war gets prolonged.
NATO’s Prestige Smeared
The Ukraine crisis has given a new lease of life to the West and has helped in uniting the divided EU and NATO, and both the US and EU are taking punitive steps to pressurize Russia to step back.
The US-NATO have yet to prove whether they can stand up to the challenge and turn the tide.
Russia is exposing the impotence of NATO which has already tarnished its reputation in Afghanistan and the Middle East.
Paranoia in India
India has got hedged between the USA, Russia and China and is finding itself caught between the devil and deep sea.
On one side is Russia with which it has had a strategic relationship since the late 1940s. 60-65% of India’s defence equipment is Russian origin.
On the other side is the USA to which it had got married in 1990 out of expediency. India has been drawing huge economic and military benefits, and the US is helping India to become a global power.
China, closely aligned with Russia and nuclear Pakistan, is breathing over India’s neck in the Himalayas.
The US is now expecting that India should pay back by severing ties with Russia, and also become an effective member of QUAD to counter China’s assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region.
For India, joining China-specific QUAD is getting highly risky.
Coming months will see whether India bends down to the dictates of the US, or makes another volte face, quits QUAD and reverts to nonalignment and extends a hand of friendship to China and Pakistan.
Reinvigoration of Cold War
The new Cold War has resurfaced and the two belligerent camps are forming up.
The Ukraine crisis, if not defused, could lead to the worst economic crisis which will have a catastrophic impact upon the world.
With so many flash points, and the climate crisis morphing into an existential threat to humanity, the world has become a powder keg and needs a matchstick in the wrong hands to ignite.
Standoff in Ukraine has revived fears of a nuclear clash and possibly a third world war.
Ground Realities
The realities that cannot be ignored are that shrunk Russia has bounced back on the global central stage, China is the emerging superpower, the US is a declining power, and its global hegemony is unsustainable.
Unipolar world has been replaced by the multipolar world.
NATO will neither establish a no-fly zone, nor become a part of the Ukraine war since it would put the whole of Europe at risk.
Without physical support of the US-NATO forces, Ukraine wouldn’t be able to push back the Russian forces, and will have to come to terms with Moscow through a political settlement.
The US-NATO wants Ukraine to become another graveyard for Russia, and is preferring proxy war over open war, but this time the end result will be not like in Afghanistan.
In case Putin comes out of this war as a victor, it will make Biden politically weak, and his party will have slim chances to win the midterm elections in November 2022.
The Zionists and extremist Jews wishing to rule the world, after pitting Christianity against Islam, has pitted USA against Russia, and will also try to pit USA against China.
Israel is maintaining a balancing act and has so far not imposed sanctions on Russia or provided military support to Ukraine.
After fighting communism for decades and burying it, the US created a new threat and defined Islamic radicalism and terrorism the biggest threat to its international order and capitalism. For next three decades the US-NATO forces bombed Iraq twice in 1991 and in 1998, invaded and occupied Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya, and in its bid to change the regime, destroyed Syria. Yemen, Sudan and Lebanon were also mauled. Large-scale destruction and massacre were undertaken through invasions, proxy wars, drones, sectarian war, in order to gain global hegemony, and to earn profits for the arms industry. Democratic, legal and human rights were thrown out of the window.
The Muslim specific war coupled with expanding NATO’s outreach into East Europe were the most egregious crimes in the post-cold war era.
From 2018 onwards, threat of terrorism has been replaced by Russia-China combine as the new threat to the US national security, for which Biden has sounded war bugles and is quite prepared to soak Europe in blood.
End Result
The US efforts to disrepute Putin have utterly failed. He has become more popular, and as per Levada Centre, over 80% of Russians support his actions. Conversely, Biden’s graph is dropping.
The minimum that Putin might agree on will be to make the Donbas region independent, with Luhansk and Donetsk as People’s Republics, Crimea part of the Russian Federation, and Western Ukraine to become a neutral country.
Zelensky has agreed not to become a NATO member and to make Ukraine neutral subject to security guarantee. He might agree to make Donetsk and Luhansk semi-autonomous instead of independent, and acknowledge Russia’s sovereignty over Crimea.
The US, EU and NATO might reconcile with this arrangement, and would agree to make Ukraine a buffer state between East and West Europe.
Conclusion
Wars, conflicts, civil strife, intrigues, deceit, lies and hypocrisy have become a norm. Putin has called the West an empire of lies. Piety, tolerance and forbearance have been replaced by immorality, intolerance and egotism.
The Western leaders have the moral obligation to call for an immediate end of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine. The atrocities of war must stop immediately and the sanctity of human life and habitats must be assured by all within the global systems of political governance.
Author
Asif Haroon Raja – The writer is a retired Brig Gen, war veteran who took part in the epic battle of Hilli in former East Pakistan in 1971, he is defence, security & political analyst, international columnist, author of five books, Chairman Thinkers Forum Pakistan & Director Measac Research Centre, takes part in TV programs, and delivers talks. [email protected]
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