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Archive for category Nawaz Dangerous

For Nawaz Sharif, solutions are blowing in the wind

For Nawaz Sharif, solutions are blowing in the wind

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Dr.Moeed Pirzada

 

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif appears to be caught in a political nutcracker, mostly of his own making. On May 11, it was Imran Khan who stood, amidst thunderous applause, at Islamabad’s D-chowk demanding: electoral reforms, thumbprint verifications in four constituencies, as well as investigations into election rigging. 

 

And then there was an ingenious Dr Tahirul Qadri, who offered an impressive fusion of Islam, constitutionalism and technology. The fiery cleric held large crowds spellbound with his rejection of the current parliamentary system. For his part, PM Nawaz needs to find a political solution — and he needs to find it fast. 

 

The heads of both the PTI and PAT are capitalising on the political space created by his unending brinksmanship with the military that skyrocketed following allegations that PM Nawaz Sharif had aligned himself with a private media group against GHQ – a situation that has also left PML-N friendless in an increasingly hostile media market.

There is also little doubt that both PTI and PAT agendas have gained a sharp edge from the recent turn of events. But these agendas present an interesting challenge, not only to PM Nawaz but also to the whole political set-up, of which PTI is also part. Clearly, PML-N decision makers fear that acceptance of thumbprint verifications risks undermining the legitimacy of the party’s impressive victory in the 2013 elections.

 
Though mainstream media tends to focus on Imran Khan and his demands (viewing Qadri’s agenda as unrealistic and unachievable), more and more young men and women have started to find Dr Qadri more logical, clearheaded and nuanced than Imran.

 

Is there a political significance? Yes, it means if Imran is seen becoming soft on Nawaz, or fails to achieve any concessions then the dissatisfied ranks of the opposition will find Dr Qadri the more attractive candidate of the two. Given that his relations with the military establishment are not all that good, it is imperative for Nawaz to strike a compromise somewhere. What remains to be seen is: will he accept Imran’s political demands to reform the electoral system or will he quietly settle his differences with the restive military establishment? 

 

In an appearance on Express TV after the May 11 jalsas, Punjab’s Law Minister Rana Sanaullah, renewed Railway Minister Khawaja Saad Rafique’s earlier offer in the National Assembly that PML-N will be willing to accept thumb print verifications if PTI also agrees to allow the same exercise in four constituencies of PML-N’s choice (NA-55, 56 in Rawalpindi from where Sheikh Rashid and Imran Khan won and NA-149 and NA-150 in Multan from where Javaid Hashmi and Shah Mehmood Qureshi won). 

 

Rana argued that ever since this counter-offer PTI has been quiet. However, towards the end of the same broadcast, senior PTI leader Asad Umar said that his party had accepted in lower house PML-N’s demand for counter verifications in four PTI constituencies. Asad said that in response to this Khawaja Saad Rafique then proposed, rather strangely, to make a parliamentary committee to examine the issues which looks to PTI like “backing off” from the initial proposal since both parties need to go straight to the Election Commission for fact-finding instead of wasting time with a fact-finding parliamentary committee that won’t have the capacity to determine facts.

 

Now it seems PML-N had calculated that their counter-proposal of doing thumbprint verifications in four PTI won constituencies will unnerve the PTI but apparently PTI has called their bluff and now PML-N is trying to wriggle out of the deal. 

 

But political arguments are like peeling onions, so it remains to be seen how the PML-N will now respond to this latest clarification by PTI. But now ongoing negotiations assume a new meaning given Imran Khan’s carefully worded but firm demand from the current Chief Justice that the Supreme Court needs to order thumbprint verifications in the four constituencies. This time around the court will find it difficult to ignore the case. 

Irrespective of what the court may or may not do, the emerging scenario demands that PM Nawaz Sharif show flexibility and compromise with the parliamentary opposition or the military establishment. He may also need to reflect on the PML-N’s media management; perhaps initiating a move to diversify his media support instead of relying exclusively on one media group.

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The Musharraf Drama

The Musharraf Drama

Musharraf-bashing is all a charade, a part of a bigger game, to distract the nation from the pathetic performance of the govt while the media is hand in glove with the govt in this charade. 

 

The PPP-Jiyala govt (with media support) squandered / wasted their five-year term observing barsies (death anniversaries). 

 

This PMLN-Mutwala govt (with media support) will spend their five your term pressing cases against Musharraf who is a dead horse. 

 

In the end, the nation will be ten years behind and the Ghareeb Awaam will be poorer than ever while we keep bickering about Mush while the issues like law & order, unemployment, galloping inflation, cost of living etc all remain conveniently buried and untouched by the media + the intelligentsia. 

 

For eff’s sake, Mush is dead and gone; bury him. There are other more burning issues. The average man on the street does not give a damn whether it is a democrat who rules the the country or a dictator. All the average man on the street wants is two square meals a day and a secure job. In fact I personally don’t give a damn. If you ask me I would vote for the entity that would stem the rot, root out corruption and nip the evil in the bud; I will vote for even the Taalibaan if they can bring this about.

 

M.A.K

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Pakistan: the army and the civil administration – a looming crisis? Part 1

 
Pakistan: the army and the civil administration – a looming crisis? Part 1
 

by Natalya Zamarayeva

05 May 2014 

 

“The Pakistani Army is defending the integrity of all state institutions, preserving its dignity and institutional honor at a time when the country is facing internal and external challenges,” Chief of Army Staff General Raheel Sharif stated in “response to the military’s concern about the undue criticism of the army in the recent days”.These statements made by the General on April 7, 2014 at the Special Service Group Headquarters in the Ghazi Military Base located in the Tarbela region of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province have led to mixed reactions within society.

 

The very fact that the highest military officer addressed a message to the ruling administration is without precedent. Various Pakistani media have openly begun discussing a new crisis in the relationship between the civil administration and the generals; their relationship has already been uneasy in the recent months due to a number of issues. However, the reason for openly warning the federal administration was the decision issued by the Special Court on March 31, 2014 which accused the country’s former president and retired General (former Special Forces) Pervez Musharraf of high treason. This crime carries the death penalty.

 

The generals intended to demand an explanation. A few days prior to the decision, a meeting was scheduled for April 1, 2014, between the Prime Minister, General Raheel Sharif and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Chief Director General Lt. General Zaheer ul-Islam. However, the Prime Minister declined to attend the meeting due to “being extremely busy”. The army was always one of the centers of influence within Pakistan’s political system. As of today, there are three centers of influence: the federal government and the National Assembly (the lower house of parliament), the opposition (the minority in the National Assembly and the majority in the Senate (the upper house of parliament)) and the generals.

 

The relationship between the generals and the civil administration has always been strained throughout Pakistan’s short history. The military has taken power four times, with the previous coup taking place in 1999. Then Chief of Army Staff General Pervez Musharraf overthrew Nawaz Sharif from his post as Prime Minister (February 1997 to October 1999). The coup was followed by a trial for the former premier, an official sentence of high treason, political exile in 2001 and the return of Nawaz Sharif back to Pakistan only at the end of 2007. 

 

In May of 2013, the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) headed by Nawaz won the parliamentary elections for the third time and Muhammad Nawaz Sharif thus took up the post of Prime Minister. During the formation of the cabinet in May-June 2013, Nawaz filled key positions in the government with members from his own party. The post of defense minister was given to a civilian, which breached military traditions. However, as early as August of 2013, the new Finance Minister Ishaq Dar swiftly reassured the generalship that, despite economic difficulties, “the country’s defense will remain the government’s priority”.

 

Without forgetting his previous strained relations with the general’s office, Nawaz Sharif was not too quick to appoint a new Chief of Army Staff. He was waiting for November 28, 2013, when General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani would complete his term in office as Chief of Army Staff and on November 29, 2013, Nawaz appointed General Raheel Sharif to the now vacant post. As with Pervez Musharraf’s case in 1998, in 2013, Nawaz Sharif also followed his personal preferences and, as such, violated long-standing military tradition of promoting generals along the career ladder. This led to certain dissatisfaction within the military. However, Nawaz was primarily depending on the general’s support.

 

The sentence for Pervez Musharraf caused a tidal wave of outrage, which simply gained momentum as time went on. Statements that the court’s decision should be carried out swiftly came from various MPs, members of the Pakistan Muslim League (N), in particular, Defense Minister Khawaja Asif, whose criticism was also further supported by Federal Minister for Railways Khawaja Saad Rafique. The army voiced its support for their former chief. We can only speculate as to the meaning behind the general’s “undue criticism” – has Musharraf’s trial been blatantly politicized, is Musharraf receiving a just trial, and so forth.

 

There are several overt reasons for the army’s dissatisfaction with the current civil administration (besides the Musharraf case). One of the main reasons is the process of peaceful negotiations between the administration and the prohibited terrorist organization Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). In December of 2013 on the first day of negotiations, General Raheel Sharif emphasized the government’s full support and agreed, for a time, to halt military operations against the militants in various regions where Pashtun tribes reside on the Afghanistan border. However, he also noted that he will not tolerate any terrorist attacks and will react to any attacks swiftly and effectively.

 

Yet in February of 2014, armed clashes with TTP militants in the Mohmand Agency led to the death of 23 federal army officers. The government was quick to accuse the army of being the first to use force during the days of negotiations. The generals then stated their demands – a ceasefire beginning on April 1, 2014 (which has been breached by the militants multiple times). The army’s discontent led to the government’s decision to free 16 arrested TTP militants. Henceforth, all failures during negotiations and any breach of the ceasefire were blamed on the army.

 

 

Pakistan: the army and the civil administration – a looming crisis? Part II

 

The public statement by Chief of Army Staff General Raheel Sharif defending the army’s honor and dignity during a time of internal and external challenges to Pakistan has caused a wave of criticisms by the opposition parties. The Leader of the Opposition in the National Assembly Syed Khursheed Shah has stated that the country cannot afford a dictatorship and a judiciary that “accidentally takes the life of an individual”.

 

The dissatisfaction exhibited by the Pakistan National Party, one of the main political opponents to the ruling party, is caused by several issues: the premier’s authoritarian methods; ignoring the opinion of the opposition in the National Assembly; the desire to review the 18th Amendment to the Constitution (2010), which grants the provinces significant powers; the politics of Punjab-izing the country (extensive infrastructure investment projects are implemented primarily in the Sharif clan’s home Punjab province) and others.

 

The Pakistan National Party saw their own pillar of support within the statement made by General Raheel Sharif and, at the same time, a warning to the premier and his entourage. However, they did not openly confront the Pakistan Muslim League (N). In answering the question of whether his party was with the army or with the Pakistan Muslim League (N) party, Leader of the Opposition in the National Assembly Syed Khursheed Shah stated that “his party is with the masses”. 

 

The Pakistan National Party used the strain in the relations between the generals and the ruling administration to their own advantage; for example, within a very short period of time, they were able to push to have joint discussions of the draft Protection of Pakistan Bill in the National Assembly, which is aimed at reassessing provincial rights. It is very rare that Pakistani military make such public statements. On November 5, 2012, then Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani “had warned detractors of military against undermining the institution and behaving as the ‘sole arbiters’ of national interest”.

 

General Raheel Sharif’s statement also caused a mix of responses within the military. A formula to normalize the relations between the generals and the ruling civil administration was offered by former Army Chief and retired General Mirza Aslam Beg (August 1988 – August 1991), 

“1. The criminal trial accusing General Pervez Musharraf of high treason must be stopped and the General needs to be allowed to leave the country. 
2. The Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority shall guarantee that no television channel will broadcast any statements that undermine the army’s prestige. 
3. Ministers and politicians should be forbidden from publicly criticizing the army and making statements against people who have defended this country with their own life”. 

 

Mirza Beg believes that the “situation will normalize in no time if the government acted in light of his suggestions. Otherwise, the generals will be doing the same thing that was done by General El-Sisi in Egypt.” The former Chief of Army Staff is certain that the country’s constitution “would not be able to block a military intervention if the rulers do not give the army its due respect”. The statement suggesting the censorship of the media with respect to army activities has led to contradicting opinions in society.

 

The “culprit” behind these tensions was soon found and the conflict was resolved before it could heat up further. The Ministry of Defense sent a written notice to the Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority (PEMRA) administration stating that the Geo News channel has breached PEMRA provisions by broadcasting a report that was offensive to government institutions, bringing bad publicity to the ISI, by which the channel damaged national interests; the administration was urged to shut the channel down and revoke its license. On April 22, 2014, the regulatory authority demanded an answer from the channel before May 6, 2014.

 

Nawaz Sharif did not externally show any fear after General Raheel Sharif’s statement, however, he was quick to secure support from the opposition and met with his long-time main political opponent Asif Ali Zardari. His clan heads the Pakistan National Party which holds a majority in the upper house of parliament. However, the Pakistan National Party, in trying to avoid any conflicts with the military, was also quick to state that “It should be seen as the democratic forces standing united to strengthen institutions. It should not be taken as against an institution or institutions.”

 

Many people in Pakistan believe that the crisis in the relations between the generals and the civil administration will not be developing along the route of curtailing democratic gains. Nawaz Sharif’s stance also heavily influences the resolution of this crisis. Will he retire Defense Minister Khawaja Asif and instead hand the post over to the army leadership or will he continue on his present course? Nawaz Sharif is also not very keen on confrontations. At the invitation of the general’s office, the Prime Minister arrived to the PNS Akram military base where he stated that the political and military leaders are working jointly to make Pakistan a developed, safe and peaceful country: “we will work jointly to overcome the challenges being faced by the country”.

 

It would seem that the civil administration and the generals will, in the future, take steps to avoid confrontation. As of today, the open opposition between the Prime Minister and the Chief of Army Staff has been neutralized. However, the military has issued a warning and the army still retains the means to influence the civil administration.

 

Natalia Zamarayeva, PhD in History, Senior Research Fellow, Department of Pakistan at the Institute of Oriental Studies in the Russian Academy of Sciences, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

 

Reference

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IPPs : The Stealth Economic Hit Men Sent to Destroy Pakistan Economy Under Incompetent Nawaz Sharif

COMMENTS BY PAKISTAN THINK TANK MEMBERS ARE SHOWN IN BLUE

“WE ALL ARE COWARDS AND BUNCH OF IDIOTS  THINKING THAT PML-N GOVERNMENT IS MAKING FANTASTIC ECONOMIC PROGRESS UNDER THE LEADERSHIP OF OUR MOST TALENTED  FINANCE MINISTER, ISHAQ DAR” 


Debt of Rs1 billion per day or Rs 41 million per hour

Sunday, May 04, 2014 

Dr Farrukh Saleem

 

Fact 1: On June 5, Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif took the oath of the prime ministerial office.

 

Fact 2: Soon after coming to power, the PML-N government paid off Rs480 billion worth of accumulated circular debt.

Fact 3: Over the past 330 days, the government has accumulated Rs330 billion worth of brand new circular debt – Rs1 billion per day, every day of the past 11 months.

Argument 1: The government argues that the cost of production of electricity is higher than the sale price – and thus the government ends up accumulating multi billion-rupee circular debt. Why is the government then not doing anything about the cost of production of electricity?

Just consider this: Pakistani Independent Power Producers (IPPs) are consuming up to 24 kg of oil to produce 100 kWh. Internationally, power plants take in 14 kg of oil to produce 100 kWh. Why isn’t the government after the IPPs?

Now consider this: Pakistani IPPs are consuming up to 12,000 BTUs of gas to produce a unit of electricity. In India, they are producing the same unit of electricity by taking in a mere 5,000 BTUs. Why isn’t the government questioning the IPPs?

The government’s only solution to circular debt is the doubling of the electricity tariff for consumers. The PPP government doubled the tariff and got us into more trouble than we were in before the doubling. And now the PML-N government is bent upon doubling the tariff once again. Isn’t that insane? Albert Einstein defined insanity as “doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.”

Argument 2: The government also argues that the circular debt is because of ‘theft’. It is true that our line losses are around 25 percent. To be certain, there are two types of lines losses – technical and non-technical. Technical losses are because of old transformers and poor infrastructure. Non-technical losses are essentially ‘theft’.

Well, we haven’t spent much to improve our electricity infrastructure over the past 50 years – and now we have huge technical losses. Yes, there is power theft but even if we manage to imprison each and every power thief in the private sector we would still be left with at least 90 percent of the circular debt.

Conclusion: The government, by design or by default, is focusing on all the wrong places. The government, by design or by default, is missing the elephants in the room. The elephants in the room are the IPPs. The IPPs are gulping down way too much oil. And the IPPs are taking in way too much gas.

The government, by design or by default, is looking at all the wrong places for ‘thieves’. The government-owned generating companies (Gencos) have managed to steal Rs29 billion worth of furnace oil. A total of 1,920 transformers and truckloads of cables have been reported stolen. The federal government, the provincial governments and their departments owe more than Rs200 billion in past bills.

Lo and behold, exactly 482,120 minutes have passed us by over the past 11 months of PML-N rule. And we have been losing Rs1 billion a day the equivalent of Rs41 million per hour or a loss of Rs700,000 per minute every minute of the past 11 months.

Electricity, I have been told, is like faith – “you can’t see it, but you can see the light.”

The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad. Email: [email protected]


ALL THOSE TRYING TO TELL PEOPLE OF PAKISTAN THAT  PML-N GOVERNMENT IS MAKING FANTASTIC ECONOMIC PROGRESS UNDER THE LEADERSHIP OF OUR MOST CORRUPT  FINANCE MINISTER, ISHAQ DAR, AND BONGA PRIME MINISTER 
 ARE COWARDS AND BUNCH OF IDIOTS  THINKING THAT COUNTRY WILL MAKE PROGRESS BY BEGGING MONEY OR RECEIVING CHARITY   FROM DIFFERENT CHANNELS, RATHER IT ESTABLISHES THAT PAKISTAN IS A BEGGING STATE

Pakistan among 10 countries facing severe energy crisis: Agriculture Sector

ISLAMABAD, Dec 3: About 1.3 billion people in the world are living without electricity; two-thirds of them being in 10 countries and four of them, including Pakistan, in the Asia Pacific region, says a report of the United Nations. Agriculture Sector

According to the Statistical Yearbook for Asia and the Pacific-2013 released by a UN commission on Tuesday, an estimated 60 per cent of capacity-addition efforts in future will be focused on mini-grids and off-grid connections in which renewable energy sources will play a vital role.

In the generation of electricity from renewable sources, the Asian and Pacific region led the world in 2010. But this amounted to only 15.8 per cent of the region’s total electricity, which is below the world average of 19.4 per cent.

With less than 400 kilowatt-hours per capita, the annual household electricity consumption in the region is the second lowest among the world’s regions, after Africa where it is 200kwh.

About 2.6bn people in the world and 1.8bn in the region use solid fuels for cooking. The WHO estimates that more than 1.45 million people die prematurely each year from indoor air pollution caused by burning solid fuels with insufficient ventilation.

Women’s economic empowerment

The report says that despite its economic growth, the region lags behind in economic empowerment of women. It calls for targeted policy measures to facilitate women’s economic empowerment.

Women still bear the burden of unremunerated productive work, shouldering the major share of household management and care-giving responsibilities.

The report says that in Pakistan women spend 5.5 hours a day on housework and 1.2 hours on childcare whereas men spend 2.5 hours on housework and 0.9 hours on childcare.

It also says that women are overrepresented in sectors and positions that are vulnerable, poorly paid and less secure. For instance, 42 per cent of working women/girls belonged to agriculture sector in 2012 compared with 36.0 per cent of male workers.

Courtesy DAWN

 

ADDITIONAL READING 

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​Nawaz Sharif’s problem is himself – NOT the Army.

 

Islamabad diary

 

Power Drunk Control Freak Nawaz Sharif is a Kughoo.He never learns from his past mistakes and continues to repeat them.He is not too bright in the hard drive in his head. Or he does not know how to use it, because,he lacks critical thinking skills and Emotional Intelligence which goes with it

Nawaz Sharif at loggerheads with the army again, the old pattern of 1999 repeating itself. Cruel destiny…is Pakistan doomed to walk the paths it has trodden before? What is at work here… the army’s overweening ambition or PM Sharif incurable?

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Nawaz Sharif’s problem is not the army. His problem is himself, and his inability to be at ease with any but loyal yes-men. More than most mortals he is also given to that oldest of human vices: flattery. Since his rise to political prominence in the 1980s – when Governor Lt Gen Jilani chose him as Punjab finance minister – he has surrounded himself with the trained butler-type of civil servant. As prime minister for the third time this tendency remains unchanged.

The trouble with the army is that no chief, no matter how obliging and self-effacing, can be his master’s voice. He cannot, in open durbar, sing praises of Mian Sahib’s sterling leadership qualities. Politicians are good at this; bureaucrats, especially the breed we see nowadays, are past masters at this game; but it is unreasonable expecting the same from a chief of the army, commanding its divisions and holding the key to the country’s nuclear arsenal.

It’s not that he is a Caesar or someone in that mould. It’s the nature of the position. The present Punjab Inspector General of Police, Khan Baig, can be considered obliging beyond the call of duty. Make him army chief and see the transformation. Even he will start behaving differently…and Mian Sahib will smell a conspiracy.

Army chiefs are no angels. Let us not fall into this trap. There are other things they can do: start unwanted wars and then lose them. An entire army can surrender, as in East Pakistan. Generals can have as keen an eye for wealth and property as any laird of Nawabshah or baron of Raiwind. But bowing and scraping and singing songs of unadulterated flattery army officers usually will not do…unless of course it is a Ziaul Haq performing a role, but then other phantoms will be dancing in his mind.

Mian Sahib has a problem understanding this. Remembering the demons of the past, he thought long and hard about who to appoint army chief and then settled on Gen Raheel Sharif, and everyone said what a brilliant choice, what a thorough gentleman and from what a martial background. And within just a few months Mian Sahib’s telltale smile, which tells all being a bellwether of his feelings, has vanished from his face as he finds himself virtually at war with his own appointee.

No issue of war and peace is involved here, no policy disagreement, just plain human psychology and the inadequacies of a man not comfortable with the mental give-and-take of a genuine discussion.

Forget Gen Raheel Sharif for a moment. Nawaz Sharif has had problems with every army chief he has had to deal with. True, Gen Aslam Beg was flying so high at the time that anyone would have had problems with him. So let’s forget him too. But then Nawaz Sharif couldn’t get along with Gen Asif Nawaz Janjua, nor Gen Kakar, nor – and this beats everything – Gen Karamat. And when Karamat, a civilised man to his fingertips, gave in his papers, no one thrust Gen Musharraf upon Nawaz Sharif. As army chief he chose him himself, and what became of that we know too well.

We may well say Musharraf was an adventurer and a buccaneer and there was bound to be trouble with him. What about Raheel Sharif? Has he too begun looking like a buccaneer, the wolf emerging from the sheepskin?

Army officers generally say nice things about Gen Raheel. But he could have been a saint, a warrior of the steppes, conqueror of Samarkand and Bokhara, and Nawaz Sharif still would have run into problems with him…simply because Gen Raheel would not have clicked his heels enough nor dipped his tongue into jam and sugar when speaking to the prime minister. Nothing more complicated than this.

With a chief who is your appointee and who by all accounts is a reasonable man, what was there that could not be discussed…India, the Taliban, the Musharraf trial? But this would have required some mental interaction, some intellectual engagement with the military brass. Trouble is that even to hint at such an exercise in relation to the lords of the present dispensation may be to ask for too much.

Persons close to Nawaz Sharif, with his interests at heart, told him not to get embroiled in the Musharraf trial. I have it from well-placed sources that the PM would listen but say nothing. The urge to settle scores with his old nemesis was simply too compelling to resist. Even when a way out of the imbroglio had been found – by allowing Musharraf to go abroad – the revenge urge proved more powerful than any words of wisdom and the PM, according to more than one account, went back on his word. And the army saw red and postures stiffened.

Wiser counsels seemed to prevail once more when the PM went to the passing out parade at PMA Kakul and, in what must have been a first in the history of the Academy, went out of his way to hold up the virtues of the army chief for young army officers to emulate.

When all this bonhomie was on display in Kakul, the same evening the attack on Hamid Mir took place. This was a golden opportunity to further mend matters between the government and GHQ. When the ISI was accused of being behind this attack and a media civil war was flaring up over this allegation, all that was required was a four-five line statement saying that the issue should not be pre-judged and no institution should be attacked without the burden of proof.

But the government just could not bring itself to say this, feeding the perception that it was taking sides not only in the media civil war but standing against the army and ISI. The PM visited Hamid Mir in Karachi but said not a word about the accusations against the ISI. The army’s riposte came in the form of the army chief’s visit to ISI HQs in Islamabad a day later, confirming, if any confirmation was needed, that the breach between the two sides was now wide open.

In 1999 it took the Kargil conflict and much more to push Pakistan to the brink of the October coup. This time round, even before Nawaz Sharif has completed his first year in office, it has taken much less to bring the country to a similar pass. Musharraf, down and out, forlorn and lost, can be forgiven for chuckling to himself.

Some consequences we can already note: (1) without the army’s backing the Taliban talks are as good as dead; (2) India must be looking very carefully at the prospects of doing business with a beleaguered government; and (3) channels of communication between the civil and military spheres have gone dead. Call this the brilliance of Pakistani statesmanship.

And the outlines of a new line-up are visible on the national horizon. When in times past the army stood against democracy, rightwing forces and Islamist parties stood with the army. When the army is supportive of democracy and searching for a national consensus against the threat from the Taliban, all its erstwhile allies have deserted it, to join forces with the new rightwing, and pro-Taliban coalition, on the other side.

The old ideological alignments have thus been made to stand on their head. Call this the new paradigm, a first for Pakistan and something entirely new for the army.


Email: [email protected] 

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