ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — Throughout his presidency, Pakistan’s Asif Ali Zardari has looked over his shoulder. Would the military bounce him from office? Would an aggressive Supreme Court find a legal lever to send him packing? Would infighting and dissent erode his fragile coalition government?
Now, as he and his government make history by becoming the first civilian administration to ever complete its five-year term — despite public approval ratings as low as 14% — Zardari’s legacy is clear. He turned political survival into an art form.
“You give Zardari a roomful of politicians, and he will find you 51%. That’s an art he has perfected that no one really knew he had,” says Cyril Almeida, a Pakistani newspaper columnist. “By and large, he has done his own thing and cut whatever deals he needs. But he hasn’t gone after enemies and opponents, and that has kept the political temperature at a manageable level.”
Known to most Pakistanis as “the accidental president,” Zardari fell into the job after the slaying of his wife, former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, assassinated in 2007 as she was launching her political comeback. Many Pakistanis still call him “Mr. 10%,” a reference to corruption allegations that have followed him since stints in previous decades as a Cabinet minister.
Zardari’s government ended its five-year term Saturday, setting the stage for the first transfer of power from one civilian government to another in Pakistan’s 65-year history. Every other civilian government’s term has been interrupted by military coups or politically motivated ousters.
A caretaker government is slated to assume power as the country embarks on a campaign season that will culminate in parliamentary elections, expected in May. Members of the federal and provincial assemblies will then select a president later in the year. Zardari, 57, remains president and, unless he wins reelection, will step down upon the inauguration of a new president.
Zardari’s prime minister, Raja Pervez Ashraf, will step down as soon as the ruling Pakistan People’s Party and its main opposition, the PML-N, agree on a caretaker replacement. Parliament and the Cabinet dissolved Saturday.
The transfer of power through the ballot rather than military might is seen by most Pakistanis as a crucial step in the country’s democratic evolution.
But as Zardari’s PPP enters what is sure to be a tumultuous campaign, it faces an electorate deeply disappointed with the ruling government’s failure to remedy the country’s biggest ills.
Daily power outages that in the summer can last 12 hours or more shackle the economy and make everyday life miserable. Zardari has never been able to tamp down Islamist terrorism, and a recent wave of sectarian attacks by Sunni Muslim militants against the country’s minority Shiite Muslim community poses a new national security threat with the elections around the corner. The federal government remains heavily indebted to international lenders, and corruption taints every echelon of society.
An annual “Worldwide Threat Assessment” report delivered to the U.S. Congress last week by James R. Clapper, director of national intelligence, criticized Zardari’s government for being unwilling to tackle “problems that continue to constrain economic growth. The government has made no real effort to persuade its disparate coalition members to accept much-needed policy and tax reforms, because members are focused on retaining their seats in upcoming elections.”
The same sense of frustration with Zardari’s government runs through Pakistani society.
“This government has ruined the country in the last five years,” says Azhar Iqbal, 50, owner of a cookware shop in one of Islamabad’s central shopping districts. “It’s bad everywhere. Every night when we go home and turn on the television, we hear about this or that number of people killed.”
Despite popularity ratings as low as 14%, according to a recent Pew Research Center poll, Zardari and the ruling PPP government aren’t necessarily doomed in the upcoming elections, and in fact might be able to garner enough backing to engineer another coalition government and retain power.
The PPP and its primary rival, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif‘s PML-N party, already have entrenched support bases, and cricket legend Imran Khan’s upstart Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party is expected to cull more voters from Sharif’s vote bank than the PPP’s, analysts say. And while dissatisfaction with the government is widespread, historically Pakistanis haven’t expressed their frustration at the ballot box. Turnout in Pakistan’s national elections has always been low, ranging from 36% to 45%.
The ultimate winner may not be the top vote-getter, but the better coalition builder.
“Political polarization in Pakistan is sharp,” says Hasan Askari Rizvi, a Lahore-based political analyst. “The PPP may lose some seats in Parliament, but they still will have the capacity to form a coalition government. Whereas Sharif isn’t seen as someone who can build a coalition. … So by default, the PPP may be able to pull through because they can produce a better coalition.”
During the last five years, Zardari’s most formidable opposition has not come from Sharif, but from the military and the Supreme Court, both institutions that have always viewed the president as a liability. Both the court and the army have hounded Zardari, at times stoking fear within society that the government would collapse.
But neither institution ever pushed Zardari and his government over the edge. The Supreme Court ousted Ashraf’s predecessor, Yousuf Raza Gilani, on a contempt charge in 2012, but since then has eased up on the government.
“While the army’s high command is angered by the mismanagement of the economy by the Zardari government, there’s also an understanding that they don’t really have solutions themselves,” newspaper columnist Almeida said. “And the Supreme Court can’t oust a political government because its entire public standing is based on the fact that it resisted unconstitutional moves by [former President Pervez Musharraf] in 2007.”
That year, Musharraf, who saw Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry as a threat to his authority, ousted him, a move decried by lawyers and opposition parties as illegal.
“So the routes have been shut,” Almeida continued. “There’s no obvious route to dismantling this government.”
Reader Comments (47)
Great logic shutdown public transportation when there is a large crowd
Exact opposite of what happens the world over
Recommend276
They admiited that ‘They stated that there would be a huge crowd en-route to Minar-e-Pakistan’
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tsunami doesnt need buses 😀 thank you very much
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Shame on you PML-N
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Good move !
Assets must be protected from these “uncouth youth”.
Recommend64
Noora league will do anything to stop the Tsunami, but InshAllah they will fail!
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Metro Bus is a national asset, it will be wise if it is not handed over to any crowd for destruction. Second for @Antebellum, any kind of Tsunami brings on ly destruction. I wish PTI leadership had a little sense naming themselves as destructors
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the fear is in their hearts now
Recommend151
It makes sense shutting it down. These rallies always go crazy in Pakistan and it is best not to waste the billions of rupees spent on this white elephant project.
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wow, waht a special reason. No wonder who CM currently is.
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Its not about fear of Tsunami its about being civilized. PML N doesn’t think that we Lahories are civilized enough to sit in Metrobus.
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Khurram, There is a difference between PMLN and PTI crowd. I think you are confusing the two.
Recommend48
@KHURRAM MANSOOR, my friend thats the idea , bring destruction to status quo, bring destruction to corruption so on and so forth. If you have been unable to fathom the idea as yet then you deserve the leaders we have.
Recommend46
Shame on Musharaf League of Raiwind
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The people who are going to travel 100s of kilometers from different cities to get to Lahore for this historic day are not going to be stopped by blocking a bus service that only runs on 37 kms.
Only made the government look scared. It wont dent the event attendance in any way.
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PMLN is SCARED of tsunama
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@Angry @KHURRAM MANSOOR @Blithe:
True Patwari Logic. Hats off to you.
— Metro Buses (and for that matter all transport systems) should be closed for Rallies to ensure security.
— All official buildings, shopping plazas, underpasses, bridges etc on the Rally route should be lifted & moved to some other place to secure them.
— Better yet all citizens should be sent to ‘Chaanga Maanga’ to ensure their safety from ‘uncouth youth’.
— If any mishap does happen, Khadim-e-Aala may distribute fake cheques to the affectees to satisfy media cameras (who cares if they bounce later). Huh
Hum ne badla hai Punjab…… Hum Badlenge Paistan…. whatever
Recommend79
@Angry: Its a government resource made from our tax money, doesn’t belong to their abbay! Will they shut it down during PPP’s rallies? during their own? obviously this is a political move by an opponent that is scared
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Metro Bus belongs to every Pakistani ! Lets suppose if they hold rallies near airport than govt will shut that too ? Protection of assets is the responsibility of police and police should do their work.Tsunami is a disciplined group of people and will purchase tickets for the service and directly benefit the national chequer. Imran Khan will show all that change is now imminent and these zardaris and sharifs have to go now
Recommend47
Great move. Unlike chairs, buses are public property, therefore must be saved from destructive Tsunami. What kind of youth is this? they want ride and seating, why cannot they walk to concert nor stand for few hours.
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@Khurram Mansoor. The name “Tsunami” implies the destruction of the filth ridden status quote that is the incumbent regime (PPP, PMLN included)
Recommend37
The awkward moment when a party who spend .7 to 1 Billion Rs on media campaign is crying for Transportation
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We will make a new Pakistan InshAllah:
Peace & Justice for all, Cheap electricity , health , education , infrastructure , merit , winning teams in all sports , crime free Pakistan , respect of Pakistani passport, state of the art defence.
Come on IK we are with you captain
Recommend32
We will make a new Pakistan InshAllah:
Peace & Justice for all, Cheap electricity , health , education , infrastructure , merit , winning teams in all sports , crime free Pakistan , respect of Pakistani passport, state of the art defence.
Come on IK we are with you captainRecommend33
“There are no pacts between Tsunamis & Metros” …. with excuse to Homer. 🙂
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Even being a PTI fan, I think its not a bad decision.
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This will actually add to the passion of people.
Recommend22
Good decision because Metro Buses are our precious assets”.
Recommend6
The Brave Punjab Police is unable to protect Metro Bus. Lame Excuse … In reality The Shareef’s wouldn’t like PTI to utilize their creation!
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Good Luck Shaheeno… 🙂 .
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There is a difference between PMLN and PTI crowd. DG Lahore Police is confusing the two
Recommend21
Do whatever you want, now no can stop tsunami of IK.
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There was no Metro Bus on 30 Oct either. Who needs Metro !!! ?? PTI all the way
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Pakistan Muslim league – Naan
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They used the same tactics before October 30, 2011 and we all witnessed that history was made on Oct 30. Jungla bus will remain open when shareef brothers will do a jalsi at bhaati chawk. hahahahah. wake up. Lahore AND Pakistan belongs to PTI.
Recommend14
If it’s so difficult to protect Metro Bus then why was it built on first place??
PTI has been saying this from the beginning that this Nation needs education before such projects, & PMLN today has proved that..!
Recommend18
I think its a good decision. Its not a matter of inability to protection but prevention of mob mentality. Imran Khan is not the end of the world.; Nor does he have what it takes to pacify a crowd
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IK himself in one of his speeches has directed PTI troll to use the bus for his jalsa meaning PTI trolls have the licence to vandalize the buses
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@PakistanUnited: Raiwind party is actually Zia League. Not Musharaf League They were born and brought up by Ziaul Haq
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Though I am a supporter of PTI, I do not agree that Pakistani youth knows how to value the things that belong to them … Let’s take a lesson from history … Having said that, I wish that pti stage a record breaking jalsa without the need for metro buses … That would be amazing …
Recommend3
Metro Bus is a useless project.. It is a permanent liability and a weak point for Govt..
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A great move! Unlike chairs, buses are public property, therefore must be saved from destructive Tsunami. What kind of burgers party is this? they badmouth it, condemn it and then want ride and seating… why can’t they walk to the concert for few hours??
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This is Rehman Malik approach, close cell phones as they create terrorism.
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Pti kids have been praying for the failure of this service from day 1. we r talking of desperate kids of a desperate leader. Now that transparency int’l has given a green signal to the project & imran khan failed to provide any evidence of corruption. Punjab govt has all the reasons to believe they will try to harm it physically.
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Well actually shame on the party whose rally is affecting public transport and the common man’s life
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What else do you expect from a highly politicized police.
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someone is afraid for sure.
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