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Pakistan’s external debt set to grow to whopping $90b

Pakistan Will Be Blackmailed to Rollback Nuclear Program if Imminent Default

Western nations with connivance of World Bank and IMF have a plan to Denuclearize Pakistan.

First part of the plan to which Nawaz Sharif,Ishaq Dar,and Asif zardari are privy to borrow heavily until debt reaches $200 Bn.

Second part ask Pakistani people to pay such enormous taxes,so they are forced to make a choice: 1) Nuclear Program Rollback or 2)Debt Relief

Then present demarche, either pay up or roll back Nuclear and Missile Programs

Nawaz Sharif & Asif Zardari are part of this Plan. Pakistan Military is unaware of this plan 2023′

Nawaz sharif will again be re-elected with considerable flow of funds from the United States, United Kingdom, India, and Israel.

Experts say country desperately needs to increase exports, arrest increase in debt. PHOTO: FILE

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s external debt is projected to grow to a whopping $90 billion in the next four years and the country will need $20 billion a year just to meet its external financing requirements amid concerns that all constitutional arrangements put in place to manage debt have become ineffective.

The external debt figures compiled by renowned economist and the country’s former finance minister Dr Hafiz Pasha are about $14 billion higher than the projections made by the International Monetary Fund.

Moody’s report: International bonds weaken Pakistan’s debt affordability

Dr Pasha on Saturday shared his doomsday scenario in a National Debt Conference, arranged by the Policy Research Institute of Market Economy (PRIME) – an independent think tank.

Dr Pasha’s projections are based on official data. The $14 billion difference was mainly on account of foreign loans that will fly in to finance China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects. The government is not including CPEC loans in total public debt.

“At the moment, we do not have details about the loans that will be taken under the CPEC,” said Ehtesham Rashid, Director General of the Debt Office at the Ministry of Finance, while responding to these projections.

He said once details are available, the Office may have to re-do the entire debt management strategy.

There is enormous support for the CPEC in Pakistan but this game-changing corridor has financial implications for the country that have to be highlighted for better management of debt, said Dr Pasha. His comments come after State Bank of Pakistan governor Ashraf Wathra in an interview last week said there was a need to divulge more details on the debt and investment portions of CPEC, stressing the need for more transparency on part of the government.

Dr Pasha said by 2018-19 amortisation payments would double to $8.3 billion. The current account deficit – the gap between external payments and receipts – will exponentially widen to 4% of the total size of the economy against this year’s level of just under 1% of GDP, he said.

Pakistan to get another $502m IMF loan

The current account deficit will widen due to import of machinery and plants for CPEC projects, in addition to imported fuel like Liquefied Natural Gas and coal.

As against IMF’s projections of just $8.6 billion requirement, Dr Pasha said that total external financing needs, including bridging the current account deficit and repayment of loans, will alarmingly triple to $20 billion by 2018-19.

“This will push the total external debt to $90 billion by 2018-19, showing a growth of 38% over current volume of the foreign debt of over $65 billion,” said Dr Pasha.

He said Pakistan’s exports would have to improve to at least $36 billion if the alarming increase in debt was to be arrested. The country’s exports currently hover around the $24-billion mark.

Constitutional arrangements

The constitutional arrangements put in place to better manage debt are not effectively working as there is hardly any serious debate in the Council of Common Interests and National Economic Council on the debt issue, said Abdul Wajid Rana, former Secretary Finance. He said the Debt Management Office has become subservient to Secretary Finance and was not autonomous.

Transparency

Sakib Sherani, former Principal Economic Advisor to Ministry of Finance, said that the government was playing with debt numbers. His comments come after the government’s decision to exclude non-plan loans from public debt.

He said the debt-to-GDP ratio has become irrelevant in case of Pakistan as the country lacks the capacity to repay the debt even at its current 65% level of debt-to-GDP ratio.

Pakistan agrees to slap billions in new taxes

“In case of Pakistan, the debt-to-revenue ratio is more relevant. 350% would be the limit, beyond which it wouldn’t be sustainable. Currently, this ratio stands at an alarming 523%,” said Sherani.

“By 2018-19, the debt-to-revenue ratio will be over 750%,” said Dr Pasha.

In order to ensure transparency, there must be a law requiring government to take parliamentary approval of any deal signed with the foreign governments and lending agencies, said Dr Kaiser Bengali, an economic consultant to government of Balochistan.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 13^th, 2015.

admin · 06/03/2013 1:41 pm EDT

During the first week of June, Sikhs around the world commemorate a recent historical event: Operation Bluestar of 1984, a government-sanctioned military operation that resulted in countless casualties and the destruction of one of the most historically significant gurduaras, the Darbar Sahib of Amritsar (i.e., The Golden Temple).
Sikhs constitute one of the many persecuted minority communities in India, and their commitment to standing for justice has made them a regular target of oppression for centuries.
Approximately one decade prior to the massacre of 1984, Sikh leaders of Punjab drafted the Anandpur Sahib Resolution, a document that called for a social revolution within India, demanding rights for oppressed minorities such as women, lower castes and impoverished communities. The resolution also demanded increased state autonomy, guarantees of constitutional rights and equality of citizens regardless of caste, religion or gender.
In the face of government resistance, the Sikhs raised the banner of the Dharam Yudh Morcha, threatening to protest peacefully until the federal government acknowledged the Anandpur Sahib Resolution and implemented change. They made their voices heard through campaigns that blocked off streets (rasta roko), railways (rail roko), canals (nahar roko) and work (kam roko). These protests threatened the economic and social stability of the country, and this played a major role in the Government’s decision to attack the core of the Sikh community. The government employed popular media to project Sikhs as being anti-national and secessionist, and used this as a pretense for the military operation in the theo-political capital of the Sikh tradition.
On June 1, 1984, the Indian Government launched Operation Bluestar, a full-scale assault on dozens of gurduaras around the Sikh homeland of Punjab. While coordinating attacks on these centers for worship and learning, the Government focused its attention on the most venerated and historically significant of gurduaras — the Darbar Sahib.
The invasion of the Indian Army was by no means a spontaneous reaction to the threat posed by protesting Punjabis; rather, the Indian Military prepared and simulated this operation for several months prior to its execution. The army’s assault included the deployment of tear gas, army tanks and 70,000 troops. Observers have widely speculated that the timing of the attack was also carefully selected to coincide with the first few days of June, a moment during which Sikhs around the globe commemorate the martyrdom of their fifth Guru, Guru Arjan. Guru Arjan is celebrated for many reasons, including his role as the architect of Darbar Sahib, and Sikhs flock to this site in Amritsar every June to honor his contributions.
As in years past, on June 1, 1984, Sikhs were filling the complex to pay their respects when Indian military forces arrived and placed them under siege. A deliberate and calculated massacre ensued, perpetrated by a government against its own citizens. Anthropologist Joyce Pettigrew explains the purpose of the invasion: “The Army went into Darbar Sahib not to eliminate a political figure or a political movement but to suppress the culture of a people, to attack their heart, to strike a blow at their spirit and self-confidence.”
S.M. Sikri, former Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of India, elaborates by describing Operation Bluestar as a “massive, deliberate and planned onslaught to the life, property and honor of a comparatively small, but easily identifiable minority community.”
Eyewitnesses tell a story different than that of the Indian government published in the “White Paper on the Punjab Agitation.” Devinder Singh Duggal was responsible for overseeing the Sikh Reference Library and recalled that the Army fired on the complex for several hours starting around 12:30 p.m. on June 1. The next day passed relatively peacefully as the military lifted the curfew and allowed large numbers of Sikhs to enter the complex. After filtering innocent civilians into the complex, the Army again sealed the exits to Darbar Sahib, cordoned off the borders of Amritsar, and imposed a strict curfew.
At approximately 4 a.m. on June 4, the Army assault re-commenced and continued unabated for more than 48 hours. Survivors vividly recall seeing piles of dead women and children on the ground as an armored carrier and eight tanks entered the complex in the early morning of June 6. Army officers announced from inside the tanks: “Please come out. God’s blessings are with you. We will help you reach home absolutely safe and sound.” Survivors testify that those who came out in the open were shot down at sight.
Brahma Challeney of the Associated Press of America reported that a large number of innocent Sikhs were brutally murdered — some officers used the Sikhs’ turbans to tie their hands behind their backs, while other officers made rounds among the captives and executed each at point-blank range. The Indian Government has denied these statements, but eyewitness testimonies and post-mortem reports have invariably corroborated these accounts.
In order to conceal the extent of its assaults and grave human rights violations, the Indian government broadened its exile of all media outlets by barring access to organizations offering humanitarian aid. Social interest groups such as the Red Cross, Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch and the United Nations Human Rights Reporters were denied entry into Punjab, and as a result were extremely limited in their abilities to evaluate and respond to the atrocities of Operation Bluestar.
The number of civilians murdered in Operation Bluestar remains unknown. While the most conservative estimates place the number of casualties around 675, independent and reputable sources estimate a minimum of 10,000 casualties. Joyce Pettigrew reports that a senior police officer in Punjab assessed the number of casualties as closer to 20,000.
The Committee on Human Rights openly criticized the unjust attack against innocent Sikhs, particularly when there were no allegations against them:

The most disturbing thing about the entire operation was that a whole mass of men, women, and children were ordered to be killed merely on the suspicion that some terrorists were operating from the Golden Temple [i.e., Darbar Sahib] and other Gurdwaras. Thus such a major military attack resulting in the massacre of largely innocent people was undertaken on mere suspicion which had been created by the statements of police and the government themselves.

The violation of human rights in 1984 is not just a Sikh issue — it is an issue of minority rights in India. Countless minority groups have been targeted and oppressed in the 65 years since the independence of India, and the continued denial of justice perpetuates the marginalization of these groups. Until there is accountability for these human rights violations, minority communities will continue to feel isolated and aliened. And as long as this continues, Sikhs across the globe will continue to stand up against these injustices.
This essay has been adapted from the latest edition of Gunisha Kaur’s book on human rights violations in Punjab, ‘Lost in History: 1984 Reconstructed.’

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Peshawar attack.Terrorism at it’s worse. What to do?

Shams Abbas

Pakistan seems to be in a state of shock and rightly so.Do we deserve this brutality when the larger majority of our people are moderate and peace loving Muslims.Many are in a state of disbelief.they feel,Muslims cannot do this to Muslims.So then who is behind it?

While there are many players in the promotion of domestic homebred terrorists,we must not ignore, the role of geo political strategies and compulsions of the powers which have been the major players in the Af-Pak region.These powers ‘objectives aim at ,consolidating their presence, and to control Afghanistan.Indeed these powers want Pakistan to do their bidding to ensure that the region remains in their control.This may not necessarily coincide with our policy in the region.I had forwarded an article earlier ,from which I am repeating the relevant excerpt.

Excerpt from the article ,’WHO CREATED THE TALIBAN AND WHO FUNDED THEM’

QUOTE
Just as in Libya and Syria where the US and its Persian Gulf allies funded terrorist fronts in bids to overthrow each nation’s respective governments, this unholy alliance is working in Pakistan to create a militant front, with which to menace political groups ,in Islamabad and ,reorder the country to reflect and serve their collective interests. And just as in Syria now, where the US feigns to be locked in battle with terrorists of their own creation, the fact that the US is funding their own enemy billions of dollars while allegedly fighting them in Afghanistan creates a perpetual conflict justifying their continued intervention in the region – overtly and covertly.

When a terrorist attack is carried out in Pakistan by the “Taliban,” it must then be looked at through this lens of global geopolitical reality. Attempts by the Western media to reduce this recent attack to mere “extremism,” preying on global audiences emotionally, provides impunity for the state-sponsors of the Taliban – those funding, arming, and directing their operations across the region, and then benefiting from their horrific consequences.

It appears, just as in Libya, Syria, and Iraq, the West and its allies are waging a proxy war in Pakistan as well. Attempts to exploit the tragedy in Peshawar compound this insidious agenda. Those across Pakistan’s political landscape must understand that their is no line these foreign interests are unwilling to cross in achieving their agenda – be it a line crossed at a perceived ally’s expense, or a perceived enemy’s expense. UNQUOTE.

It is therefore important to caution that our Anti terrorism Action Plan should focus on:

I. The US – AFGHANISTAN – INDIA role and historical perspectives. These are well understood and I need not repeat. Suffice it to say, that the USA and INDIA have an overwhelming role in Afghanistan and with the advent of the MODI-Doval DOCTRINE, we can expect India to feel neglected if Pakistan and Afghanistan resolve their differences.Ideally there should be synergy in the objectives of achieving stability.In that India,Pakistan and Afghanistan have to jointly work with American and Chinese support. A strong diplomatic offensive needs to be vigorously pursued.

2. We need to be prepared for a long drawn out war against terror.While these terror acts have most certainly a foreign dimension,this foreign linkage can only be successful through the cooperation of local misguided extremist religious elements.We need to focus on them in entirety, using full force of the law enforcing agencies and quick dispensation of justice.

3. This is also an opportunity to acknowledge that our defensive mechanisms to protect ourselves from potential attacks, have not used modern technology and electronic surveillance options.Our security and intelligence are both, not matching, the devious and ever changing methods, being used by the terrorists.The nation needs to be comprehensively educated.

Why cannot the Pak- Afghan border be fenced.Why cannot the movement to and fro of Afghans and persons from Pakistan be controlled and checked.Which country in the world allows such easy access.
Why are we harboring three million Afghan refugees.So that ,some from them , can play havoc with our law and order.There is a need to send them back.

4. The government in power must-stop, games of brinkmanship and playing politics.The media and the channels have consistently been discussing politics and politics only.

Anti terrorism strategies,economy,law and order are not talked about or discussed at length,
considering that these issues are more important than politics.

5. Has the time not come for the judiciary to look into it’s past performance ,which in the context of ,decision of priority cases, related to terrorists ,has been extremely dismal.Why do we have a judiciary if we do not feel safe or get timely justice.If the judiciary cannot reform itself in 67 years ,will it ever?

The issues of importance for the common man ,take precedence over political expediencies. Drastic changes are urgently needed ,to improve the performance of the judiciary.

6. Committees need to be Action Committees not assembling and dispersing committees. Lot of action plans were made in the past. Many APC’s and committees formed. The recommendations are in place.These need to be implemented and a follow-up mechanism put in place.

Today Ifthikhar Chaudhry is saying ,that the ban on executions was illegal? Why did it take him so many years to realize this.That too after retirement. Why shouldn’t Zardari and his Jiyalas be made answerable.

The then Army Chief Kiyani ,should have been more forceful with his recommendations and anti terror plans.

Where goes Independent thinking.Indeed the much touted independence of judiciary is negated by Ifthikhar’s admission that the ban on executions was illegal.The ex CJP is now throwing the blame on Zardari and Nawaz by implication.

7. Much has been talked about a moderate RELIGIOUS narrative .This is vitally important to offset the extremist narrative propagated by men like MULLA AZIZ and his likes .They sit on pulpits of mosques and breathe extremism and RELIGIOUS fundamentalism down people’s throats and ears.Many believe them and are misled.Their pupils come from all over.

The thousands of Medressahs have according to a report 2.5 million students.That is a large number to be put just into religious education at the cost of depriving them of their right to broad based education.

Don’t we know what is to be done in this respect?Why are we afraid of catching the bull by the horns.For how long?Will this menace become any less if we do nothing about it.

Time for thinking is over.Procrastination is criminal.Measures need to be taken.Action with effect from yesterday is the way forward .This has to be well strategised, both, at the International level and by attacking the domestic terror bases ruthlessly.

Shams Z Abbas

Pakistan seems to be in a state of shock and rightly so.Do we deserve this brutality when the larger majority of our people are moderate and peace loving Muslims.Many are in a state of disbelief.they feel,Muslims cannot do this to Muslims.So then who is behind it?

While there are many players in the promotion of domestic homebred terrorists,we must not ignore, the role of geo political strategies and compulsions of the powers which have been the major players in the Af-Pak region.These powers ‘objectives aim at ,consolidating their presence, and to control Afghanistan.Indeed these powers want Pakistan to do their bidding to ensure that the region remains in their control.This may not necessarily coincide with our policy in the region.I had forwarded an article earlier ,from which I am repeating the relevant excerpt.

Excerpt from the article ,’WHO CREATED THE TALIBAN AND WHO FUNDED THEM’