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Posted by admin in Afghan -Taliban-India Axis, AFGHANISTAN BASED RAW TRAINED TALIBAN ACTIONS, Afghanistan Hell, Afghanistan-Land of Backstabbers, CROSS BORDER KILLINGS BY INDIA, EXISTENTIAL THREAT TO INDIA, India Hall of Shame, India's Nuclear Proliferation, INDIA-AN EVIL NATION, INDIA-HO-- -- USE BUILT ON SAND AND COW DUNG, INDIA: THE EVIL HINDU EMPIRE, INDIAN AGENT NAWAZ SHARIF:FREE ARY, INDIAN ARMY CHIEF-TOKENISM TO APPEASE SIKH MINORITY, INDIAN GOVTS LIES EXPOSED, INDIAN SABRE RATTLING BITS THE DUST, INDIAN SCAMMERS AROUND THE GLOBE, INDIAN TERRORISM FROM CENTRAL ASIAN REPUBLICS, Makaar Dushman, Politics, Recent News on October 29th, 2014
Gambling against Armageddon
By
Munir Akram, former Pakistan ambassador to the UN |
IN an opinion piece last year, Henry Kissinger observed that over the next couple of decades a nuclear war was likely to take place between India and Pakistan. The nuclear factor was in play in four major and one minor India-Pakistan crises: in 1987, 1990, 1998, 1999 and 2002.In 1987, when an Indian army chief launched the Brasstacks military exercises along Pakistan’s exposed desert borders, Pakistan responded by deploying its forces in the north where India was vulnerable. Prime minister Rajiv Gandhi’s agreement to a mutual stand-down no doubt also took into account the informal threat from Islamabad to bomb India’s nuclear reactors in case Pakistan was attacked. (After the crisis ended, the Pakistan-India agreement not to attack each other’s nuclear facilities was jointly formulated in one day.)In January 1990, when the anti-Indian insurgency erupted in Kashmir and India threatened Pakistan, a conflict was forestalled by US intervention. The US acted when it learnt that Pakistan had begun to arm its nuclear-capable aircraft.
The operation of mutual deterrence between India and Pakistan is being eroded.
During the night of 26-27 May 1998 — the night before Pakistan conducted its nuclear explosions in response to India’s tests — Pakistani radar detected unidentified aircraft flying towards its territory. Islamabad issued warnings of instant retaliation to India and relayed these to the US and Israel. This may have been a false alarm; but it illustrates the danger of accidental conflict in the absence of real-time communications.
During the 1999 Kargil war, the nuclear dimension was implicit, given that the crisis occurred a year after the India-Pakistan nuclear tests.During the 2002 general mobilisation by India and Pakistan, the director general of the Pakistan Armed Forces Special Plans Division enunciated its nuclear ‘doctrine’ in a news interview. The ‘doctrine’ envisaged that Pakistan would use nuclear weapons if: it was being militarily overwhelmed; its nuclear or strategic weapons or facilities were attacked; and it was subjected to an enemy blockade.The projection of this doctrine, including at a UN news conference by this writer in July 2002, sparked a fall in the Indian Stock Exchange, the evacuation of foreign personnel and embassy families from New Delhi and a demarche by Indian business leaders to prime minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, and reportedly led to the Indian agreement for a mutual drawback of forces.The operation of mutual deterrence displayed in 2002, however, is being eroded by several developments.One, the conventional military balance is becoming progressively unfavourable to Pakistan. India is engaged in a major arms build-up. It is the world’s largest arms importer today. It is deploying advanced and offensive land, air and sea weapons systems. Pakistan’s conventional capabilities may not prove sufficient to deter or halt an Indian attack.Two, India has adopted the Cold Start doctrine envisaging a rapid strike against Pakistan. This would prevent Pakistan from mobilising its conventional defence and thus lower the threshold at which Pakistan may have to rely on nuclear deterrence.Three, Pakistan has had to deploy over 150,000 troops on the western border due to its involvement in the cross-border counterterrorism campaign in Afghanistan, reducing its conventional defence capacity against India.Four, the acquisition of foreign nuclear plants and fuel, made possible by the Indo-US civilian nuclear cooperation agreement, will enable India to enlarge its nuclear weapons stockpile significantly. To maintain nuclear balance, Pakistan has accelerated production of fissile materials. Both nuclear arsenals are now large and growing.Five, given its growing conventional disadvantage, and India’s pre-emptive war fighting doctrine, Pakistan has been obliged to deploy a larger number of nuclear-capable missiles, including so-called ‘theatre’ or tactical nuclear-capable missiles. The nuclear ‘threshold’ is now much lower.Six, the Kashmir dispute — once described by former US president Bill Clinton as a nuclear flashpoint — continues to fester. Another insurgency is likely to erupt, certainly if the Bharatiya Janata Party government goes ahead with its platform promise to abrogate Article 370 of the Indian constitution (which accords special status to Jammu & Kashmir). A renewed Kashmiri insurgency will evoke Indian accusations against Pakistan and unleash another Indo-Pakistan crisis.Seven, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has obviously decided to adopt an aggressive posture towards Pakistan, no doubt to appeal to his hard-line Hindu constituency. The recent ceasefire violations along the Line of Control are an ominous indication of such belligerency.Eight, India is reportedly involved in supporting the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan and the Baloch Liberation Army to destabilise Pakistan internally.Nine, India has terminated the ‘composite dialogue’ with Pakistan. Its precondition for talks — an “absence of violence” — is impossible for Pakistan to meet.Ten, the US and other major powers evince little interest in addressing the combustible mix of live disputes, terrorist threats, conventional arms imbalance and nuclear weapons in South Asia.During the parallel dialogue initiated by the US with Pakistan and India following their 1998 nuclear explosions, Pakistan proposed a ‘strategic restraint regime’ with India which would include mechanisms to resolve disputes, including Kashmir; preserve a conventional arms balance and promote mutual nuclear and missile restraint.India rejected the concept of a mutual restraint regime.The US at first agreed to consider Pakistan’s proposal. However, as their talks with India transitioned from restricting India’s nuclear programme to building a “strategic partnership” (against China), the Americans de-hyphenated policy towards Pakistan and India, opened the doors to building India’s conventional and nuclear capabilities and disavowed any interest in the Kashmir dispute. Currently, Indian belligerence is bolstered by US pressure on Pakistan to halt fissile material production and reverse the deployment of theatre nuclear-capable missiles.If a South Asian Armageddon is to be prevented, it is essential to build a structure of stable deterrence between India and Pakistan and find ways to deal with Kashmir and other outstanding disputes. Reviving consideration of a strategic restraint regime would be a good place to start.The writer is a former Pakistan ambassador to the UN.
Posted by admin in AFGHANISTAN BASED RAW TRAINED TALIBAN ACTIONS, Afghanistan Hell, Altaf "Bhai Ka Qatil"Hussain, Murtad Rogues & Namak Haraam Traitors, Nawaz Sharif US Agent, NAWAZ SHARIF US CIA ASSET IN PAKISTAN, Nawaz Sharif-The Prime Minister from Hell, Pakistan-A Nation of Hope on April 22nd, 2014
Posted by admin in AFGHAN INJUSTICE, AFGHANISTAN BASED RAW TRAINED TALIBAN ACTIONS, Afghanistan Hell, Afghanistan-Hell for Western Troops, Afghanistan-Land of Backstabbers on January 25th, 2014
And, who came out he biggest winner in all the Wars in Afghanistan? Of course India, it did not send a single soldier to fight in Afghanistan from 1987 to 2012. Thousands of 7000,Pakistani, ~3000 US, and NATO soldiers have died fighting, but not ONE INDIA ARMY SOLDIER has died in Afghanistan. And that you may call Indian chicanery or the Chanakiya doctrine, but, whatever, name you give it, good or bad, India played its cards right and won the great game.
HAMID KARZAI,THE SALAJEET PEDDLER OF KABUL IS A SNAKE IN PAKISTAN’S SLEEVE, AS THE NATION CONTINUES TO CARRY THE BURDEN OF OVER I MILLION PERMANENT SOVIET ERA AFGHAN REFUGEES
Hamid Karzai’s Anti-Pakistan Statements: With friends like Hamid Karzai, Pakistan needs no enemies.
“Pakistan is involved in a series of terrorist attacks inside Afghanistan.”
Afghan President Hamid Karzai said Saturday that the “recent assassination attempt on the country’s intelligence chief was planned in Pakistan.”
(CNN) – Afghan President Hamid Karzai said Saturday that “a suicide bombing targeting the country’s spy chief was planned in the Pakistani city of Quetta, and that he expects to raise the issue with Pakistani authorities.”
Afghan President Hamid Karzai plans to confront Pakistani counterpart Asif Ali Zardari at a meeting in Turkey on Tuesday over the wounding of his intelligence director in a suicide bombing which he says was planned in Pakistan.
Shilajit, also spelled Shilajeet or salajeet, is a pale-brown to blackish gummy brown substance found on rocks. Shilajit is found on steep rocks in the mountains of India, Himalayas, and Afghanistan. It has been thought to be an exudate of the plant Styrax officinalis and other plant and microbial substances. This substance is thought to be a complex mixture of organic humic substances and plant and microbial metabolites occurring in the rock rhizospheres of its natural habitat. In Afghanistan and India, silajeet is claimed to libido and sexual thoughts. Hamid Karzai peddles the silajeet, not of libido arousal but of fear arousal. He keeps harping on the theme, like a broken record:“the Taliban are coming, the Taliban are coming to US and their NATO allies.”
Pakistanis know, that Taliban, may have some power of mounting small scale probes or attacks, but for all intents and purposes, they are a spent force. But, for Karzai, US offers a gravy train, not only for himself, his brother and relatives, but, also to the coterie of crooks, who forms his inner circle politically. He is really enjoying the prospect of taking the only global super Power, for as the American slang say, “for a ride.” He is laughing all the way to the Swiss, Cayman Island, and Luxembourg Banks. Hamid Karzai, is a master of playing both sides of the aisle. He has Loya Jirga with the Taliban and is allied with Baitullah Mehsud faction. He winks at their opium and heroin smuggling, and lets their shipment pass on to Europe. On the other hand, he thinks Americans are too naive about the region, its tribal culture and mores,that he can sell them any bill of goods, he wants, including the Fear Factor of Bogeymen Al-Qaeda and/or Taliban reaching the shores of Long Island, a total absurdity. At the same time he wants the American gravy train to continue till 2030 and feed his personal coffers. He has no regards for the young Americans, who lose their lives to Taliban attacks as well as IEDs. He wants to keep feeding the American people and politicians, the silajeet of fear, that the bogeymen, Taliban are ready to disembark on Coney Island. He understands that a psychology of fear works wonders on the American people’s psyche and keeps them worrying about the resurgence of Al-Qaeda and their cohorts the Taliban. He is a Master Proponent of Domino Theory. The Domino Theory was first developed under the presidency of Dwight Eisenhower. It was argued that if the first domino is knocked over then the rest topple in turn. Applying this to South-east Asia Eisenhower argued that if South Vietnam was taken by communists, then the other countries in the region such as Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, Burma, Malaysia and Indonesia, would follow (Ref:US Education Forum). Eisenhower’s vice-president, Richard Nixon, was a devout follower of this theory. In a speech made in December, 1953, Nixon argued “If Indochina falls, Thailand is put in an almost impossible position. The same is true of Malaya with its rubber and tin. The same is true of Indonesia. If this whole part of South East Asia goes under Communist domination or Communist influence, Japan, who trades and must trade with this area in order to exist must inevitably be oriented towards the Communist regime. Karzai sells the fear to US that , “today Afghanistan is conquered by the so called Islamic “fundamentalist,” or Taliban, next to fall will be Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Malaysia, and rest of the Islamic World .” So far, Karzai’s silajeet has sold well among the US congress, the US Executive branch, US Media, and US people, majority of whom would not be able to point to Afghanistan on a map of the World.. But nevertheless, American people cannot be fooled for ever, they are begining to realize, that Karzai is nothing but, what people in the American south call, a “Flim-Flam Man.” He may not see it, but, the train of American peoples enlightenment and realization of the facts on the ground is heading inexorably coming towards Karzai. He may not accept to see it, but, its headlights are coming closer and closer, when its hits him, he will will be banished to the nirvana of iniquity. And, thats the truth!
Pakistan the Patsy in the Global Game
Pakistan played a key role as an ally of US and NATO in the defeat and ultimate disintegration of the Soviet Union. That was the biggest mistake in its over 60 years history. Thousands of Pakistan Army soldiers from the Pashtun belt fought as Mujaheddin, in the battle to make US and NATO nations safe from a Soviet onslaught. But, little did Pakistan know that how fickle the Western nations are, when it comes to protecting their own interests. Pakistan, by siding with the West, is still paying a very heavy price. An extra bonus has been added, which includes a constant barrage of drone attacks by its own allies, whose soldiers exult in calling Pakistani child drone victims as “bug-splats,”. And to top it all, India, its inveterate enemy is enjoying the largesse of economic growth and expansion of exports to US , UK, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and NATO nations.
Pakistan has been left holding the bag full of exploding suicide bombers and so-called “Islamic” fanatics or “fundoos.” Never again, should Pakistan strike such a “chickenshit” bargain. The destruction of the Soviet Empire was a Phyrric victory for Pakistan, its people, and thousands of Pakistani soldiers, who laid down their lives as the so-called Mujahedin. The Western agents from Arab countries like Osama Bin Ladin, Ayman Zawahiri, Abu Zubayda, the CIA trained “Mujahids,” became double-edged sword for Pakistan. After the Soviet-Afghan War, while US packed its bags and left, these “stalwarts” of the “Good War,” turned on their host Pakistan and became hell-bent on its destruction. Their presence in Pakistan not only earned it a bad name and provided fodder the Zionists and their Hindu cohorts in the Western Press and Media A crescendo of propaganda was launched to declare Pakistan, a “Terrorist State.”If had not been for President George Bush Sr and Jr, and to a great extent President Obama and General David Petraeus, Pakistan would have been a proverbial toast.
And now to top it all, even the West and its NATO ally are starting pose a real time threat to Pakistan nuclear and strategic assets. the Qu’ranic exhortation to Muslims, not choose allies from other Abrahamic faiths, which Pakistan ignored are coming true.
And the Winner is…
And, who came out he biggest winner in all the Wars in Afghanistan? Of course India, it did not send a single soldier to fight in Afghanistan from 1987 to 2012. Thousands of Pakistani, US, and NATO soldiers have died fighting, but not a single Indian soldier has died in Afghanistan. And that you may call Indian chicanery or the Chanakiya doctrine, but, whatever, name you give it, good or bad, India played its cards right and won the great game.
Pashtuns are Incorruptible, according the Code of Pashtunwali:
Hamid Karzai has made mockery of Pashtunwali, a cornerstone of Pashtun character. Pakistan hosted millions of brethren Afghan refugees, during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Hamid Karzai was one of the refugees, who enjoyed the hospitality of Pakistani Pashtuns, but, this ingrate broke all norms of Pashtunwali and started a long romance with Pakistan’s inveterate Hindu enemy. In other words, he urinated in the pot from which he received his meals. But, the flaws of Hamid Karzai’s weak and corrupt character are exploited by his stealth enemies, who wine and dine him, when he visits them India.India still hosts a large number of KHAD agents, who are waiting in the wings to land at Bagram Airbase, as soon as an opportunity occurs. The Guardian, UK states that:
“Karzai and Abdullah had their men in the polling station, but there was no one for [Ghani], so we cheated for him. He is a very educated man and with good strategy for Afghanistan. Also we are all from his tribe in this area. I tried to put my extra ballots in our polling station, but I had some enemies who tried to take my picture so I went to another polling station and no one asked to ink my finger or anything, they just said bring cards and put them in the box. It was a very happy day.“Karzai’s men were paying 1,000 Afghani per family and Abdullah’s were paying 1,500 Afghani. But many people took money from Abdullah and voted for Karzai anyway.”(http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/sep/18/afghanistan-election-fraud-evidence)
Hamid Karzai Bit the Hand that Fed him
While most Afghans were grateful for Pakistan’s hospitality, safety, security, and largesse in feeding,clothing, educating, and healing their millions of refugees, Hamid Karzai, a backstabber, started plotting against Pakistan, so much so, that he tried to influence the opinion of US President Obama against Pakistan Army and people. Now, he is worried, that after US leaves Afghanistan, his chickens will come to roost. He makes secret trips to Pakistan, to seek a fellow crook Asif Zardari’s help to find a post US departure safe haven in Pakistan. But, he forgets, that Pakistani Pashtuns still adhere to Pashtunwali, and consider Hamid Karzai, a blot on the honor of the Pashtun global community.
Lest We Forget: If a Pakistani had one piece of bread, he gave half to his Afghan Refugee Brother or Sister
Posted by admin in 4TH GENERATION US WAR AGAINST PAKISTAN, AFGHANISTAN BASED RAW TRAINED TALIBAN ACTIONS, Afghanistan-Hell for Western Troops, Afghanistan-Land of Backstabbers, US AGENT NAWAZ SHARIF, US AGENT NAWAZ SHARIF-DRONE WAR SUPPORTER, US CLEAR & PRESENT DANGER TO PAKISTAN, US DRONE WAR ON PAKISTAN, US FOREIGN POLICY & INTERNATIONAL LAW, US INFILTRATION OF PAKISTAN AGENCIES & COMMISSIONS, US Interference in Balochistan on December 5th, 2013
Pakistan has offered huge sacrifices to fight the menace of global war on terrorism (GWOT). It suffered exceptionally serious losses in terms of human resource victims, devastation of valuable property, impulsive political instability, bursting social disorder, divisive mindset, and poor law and order situation leading to creation of threatening environment filled with sense of fear and uncertainty in the country. More than 40,000 innocent people lost their lives while many were incapacitated or rendered disabled. Security forces of Pakistan were made the direct target of terrorism and their capacity to prevail upon the militants was frequently challenged by its own citizens.
Pakistan has lost over $ 100 billion in fighting the war. Damage caused to road network on which NATO containers have been moving since 2001 is above Rs 100 billion. Pakistan charges a paltry sum of $250 per container. Despite all this Pakistan remained committed to the cause of fighting the menace of terrorism and participated actively in GWOT to eliminate the terrorists. Pakistan deserved appreciation for all such sacrifices and sufferings and deserved to be praised for playing a positive role in the ugly mess created by GWOT imposed upon Pakistan by USA. Unfortunately the same has not been adequately done by the concerned quarters. Rather, Pakistan has been made the butt of criticism, ridicule and penalization.
Al-Qaeda as a terrorist organization was hardly known in Pakistan till US declared openly that 9/11 attacks on World Trade Centre were undertaken by Al-Qaeda. The group known as Al-Qaeda was organized by Osama bin Laden (OBL) who was an ordinary Jihadi volunteer from Saudi Arabia, having passion for participating in Islamic Jihad against Russian occupational forces in Afghanistan. He was indoctrinated by CIA experts to choose Islamic Jihad as the main purpose of his life. He cooperated with CIA in their efforts to launch operations against Soviets in Afghanistan and till then was a pious warrior enjoying respect and prestige among US planners.
But no sooner Russia was defeated in Afghanistan; the US changed colors and ditched the Jihadists in Afghanistan. They were termed as non-state actors dangerous for the world peace. US officials, especially CIA started treating them with disparagement and derision. US invasion of Iraq in 1992 impelled OBL to readjust his mindset and to reorient the direction of its outfit ‘Al-Qaeda’. The rift between US and OBL led to fateful event of 9/11.
The US invaded Afghanistan in October 2001 and occupied it with its full wherewithal and military weight but failed to make correct moves to apprehend OBL. Hence, OBL took advantage of faulty US policies through a method of exploitation. He appealed to the Muslim world to oppose USA that had occupied Afghanistan illegally like the Russians and urged the Muslims to wage a Jihad against occupation forces. Anti-Islamic and anti-Muslim policies pursued by Bush led administration heightened anti-Americanism within the Muslim world and propelled Jihadi Muslims towards OBL. His sympathizers gradually grew in numbers in every Muslim country including Pakistan.
One of the major tasks assigned to the US led coalition in Afghanistan was to kill and capture Al-Qaeda leaders operating inside Afghanistan and some parts of Pakistan. Al-Qaeda had virtually turned into a perilous outfit capable of inflicting serious losses to coalition forces in Afghanistan. Pakistan took some difficult strategic decisions and offered full cooperation to capture the world most dangerous and treacherous terrorists associated with Al-Qaeda. Pak Army deployed its sizeable force to be engaged in anti-terrorist operations. Pakistan Army and paramilitary forces prepared plans to conduct operations against Al-Qaeda elements in the most sensitive and volatile region of Pakistan’s tribal areas (FATA), where powerful armies of Great Britain and Soviet Russia were once defeated at the hands of tribal Lashkars.
Pakistani government’s decision to provide support and make efforts to capture Al-Qaeda terrorists, resulted in a very severe backlash of terrorists associated with Al-Qaeda. They turned against the State of Pakistan and targeted its security forces, high officials, key communicators, and civil society including innocent women/children, peace loving people busy in their business or prayers in the mosques. Even funerals were not spared. Pakistani support and efforts, however, proved fruitful and many key commanders of Al-Qaeda were apprehended or killed during operations. It was not possible to break the backbone of Al-Qaeda without the significant support offered by Pakistan and efforts made by ISI to apprehend well over 400 Al-Qaeda elements.
Since Pakistani authorities had taken a strategic decision to cooperate with US led coalition to fight the menace of terrorism, therefore, their top priority was to locate and apprehend OBL. Unfortunately, OBL found sympathizers inside Pakistani soil and succeeded in having a facility to covertly live inside Pakistan. The killing / apprehension of OBL would have exulted both Pakistan and USA, but US leaders preferred to create an atmosphere of mistrust and betrayal for reasons best known to them. The US and western public opinion builders and international media leveled serious allegations against Pakistan. This also created political and institutional turmoil inside Pakistan spreading misgivings among civil-military leadership and agitating the civil society to raise the questions of violation of sovereignty of Pakistan by US raiders.
Had Pakistani officials / ISI known about the presence of OBL inside Pakistan they would have reacted positively to apprehend / kill him to save such chaos which led to lingering court probes. Pakistan as a responsible country was cooperating in US led war on terrorism and had shown substantial results by killing and apprehending vital Al-Qaeda terrorists. It was not an option for Pakistan to hide OBL, as alleged by USA and others and get embarrassed. Had it been so, ISI would not have given a vital lead to CIA which helped the latter to locate OBL’s whereabouts in Abbottabad.
In the backdrop of intelligence failure and poor performance of NATO military commanders at tactical level, US led coalition forces in Afghanistan had suffered stunning setbacks. In an effort to cover up their failures, CIA opted to marginalize ISI and act unilaterally to get hold of the most wanted man single-handed and claim victory. CIA wanted to take all the credit for hunting OBL without any support from any other agency. Capturing/ killing OBL unilaterally would have assured invincibility of USA’s military might and professional competence of CIA.
In their short sightedness and high motivating pulse to claim full credit of OBL killing, they overlooked the actual implications. As the world witnessed later on, the outcome of such insensible approach proved dicey. Pakistan and its spy agency was not only callously blamed openly for supporting the terrorists but also made responsible for hiding OBL inside Pakistan. The US leadership created an environment of mistrust and cynicism having lasting scars, thus destroying the spirit of coalition to collectively fight the menace of terrorism. Blame game played by US leaders / field commanders helped them to cover up their failures in GWOT but overall loss / defeat in the effort against terrorism has not been realized.
The US leadership was so stunned with the information of a high value target like OBL in Pakistan that they forgot all the norms of diplomacy and all the requirements of a sovereign State. They ordered their Navy SEALs to cross the border, violate the sovereignty of Pakistan and go for the attack. This was totally unlawful and illegitimate. Wisdom failed to guide the US arrogance that in the international politics such actions amount to intimidation of other independent States and that the reaction might be very perilous. Fortunately, Pakistani side kept their cool despite internal tumult and nothing happened. On the other hand, the US leadership left no stone unturned in converting the crisis into an extremely dangerous situation.
It becomes too painful and unbearable when one’s own friend deceives barefacedly using mischievous tricks. People of Pakistan, government officials, Pak Army and ISI were at grave pains when they found that they have been misled, misinformed and betrayed by their own allies especially USA and its spy agency CIA who not only violated the sovereignty of Pakistan by intruding into its territory without permission but also for creating a situation in which Pakistan stood blameworthy and culpable for hiding OBL inside Pakistan. Public opinion went against Pakistan and there was an internal turmoil leading to serious political instability the impact of which still goes unabated. No doubt US action proved that a foe in the garb of a friend bashed us badly.
After killing Osama in Abbottabad on May 2, 2011 by US Navy Seal Team Six, the US claimed his body was buried at sea of the USS Carl Vinson in accordance with Islamic tradition. Fred Barton challenged this claim by saying that the body was flown in a CIA plane to Dover and onward to Armed Forces Institute of Pathology in Maryland. This institution mysteriously closed on September 15, 2011. (Email sent by Barton to Wiki leaks on March 6, 2012). Other than so many stories published with regards to the death of OBL in December 2001 at Tora Bora, or in 2005, and some stating that it was OBL double that was killed on May 2, many all over the world including Americans believe that US SEALs operation in Abbottabad against OBL was a false flag operation aimed at undermining Pakistan Army and ISI and to give a boost to flagging image of US Army and CIA. The CIA operated drones are now brazenly violating Pakistan’s sovereignty, but the US still claims that it is a friend of Pakistan.
The writer is a retired Brig, defence analyst and columnist. [email protected]
Posted by admin in "Jihadi" Outfits of Terrorism, AFGHANISTAN BASED RAW TRAINED TALIBAN ACTIONS on November 19th, 2013
From Nek Muhammad to Maulana Fazlullah
Asif Haroon Raja
Once Pakistan consented to fight US imposed war on terror as a Frontline State, it was asked by USA to flush out about 1000 foreign militants from FATA failing which the US military would be constrained to barge in. At that time, there were no Taliban in FATA or elsewhere in Pakistan except for a small percentage of Afghan Taliban fans. Regular troops ex 11 Corps entered Tirah Valley in Khyber Agency for the first time and from there proceeded to Shawal Valley in North Waziristan (NW) and then to South Waziristan (SW) in 2002 to launch operations against foreigners as well as their sympathizers. Their entry into SW and Musharraf’s attempts to appease American paymasters sowed seeds of mistrust and gave birth to Pakistani Taliban. Terrorism in Pakistan grew when Pak Army at the behest of USA fought the militants in Mehsud belt in SW and later in NW and authorized employment of drones.
Foreign agencies based in Kabul on the other hand provided massive covert support to militant groups to fight and defeat Pak Army, kill pro-government elements in FATA and make the northwestern region chaotic. Undermining of Islam and cruelty perpetrated upon captives in CIA detention centres inflamed anti-Americanism and anti-Army sentiments among Islamists. Terrorism scaled new heights after Obama took over in January 2009 and formulated aggressive Af-Pak policy. Obama clearly spelt out at the outset that the US would take physical action against a target in FATA by drones or US Special Forces whenever any actionable intelligence came its way.
Nek Muhammad belonging to Yargul Khai sub-clan of Ahmadzai Wazir tribe in SW was the first Taliban commander to confront the Army. At the age of 19, he had joined the ranks of Mujahideen and had fought the Northern Alliance in provinces of Northern Afghanistan and had risen in ranks rapidly. He got acquainted with Osama bin Laden, Zawahiri, IMU leader Tahir Yaldeshev and Uyghur leader Hasan Mohsin. After taking part in war against the US led forces in Afghanistan in end 2001, he returned to Wana and formed Jaishal Qiba al Jihadi al-Siri al-Alimi. He provided shelter to al-Qaeda and Taliban fighters who had fled from Afghanistan. In March 2004, bloody battle was fought by the Army to evict Chechen; Uzbek and Tajik militants from SW. Less Uzbeks, the rest were flushed out. 400 al-Qaeda operatives were captured and handed over to USA.
Lt Gen Safdar Commander 11 Corps prevailed upon Nek and the two signed a peace deal at Shakai Fort on April 24, 2004. Safdar embraced Nek, calling him ‘a soldier of peace’. Soon after, Nek was killed by US drone near Wana on June 18, 2004 and the Army took the responsibility of his killing. After his death, Baitullah Mehsud hailing from Shabi Khel clan of Mehsud tribe emerged as the major militant leader. In the same timeframe, his cousin Abdullah Mehsud entered the arena of militancy in SW. He had lost a leg to a landmine in 1996 while fighting Northern Alliance in Afghanistan. He also fought against US led forces in October 2001 till he was arrested in December 2001. CIA released him from Guantanamo Bay Jail in early 2004 after fitting him with a prosthetic limb and thoroughly brainwashing him for 25 months and tasking him to fight Pak forces in SW. After his return he organized a 5000 strong force and operated in areas outside the realm of Baitullah Mehsud in Jandola, Tank and surroundings. He was behind abduction of two Chinese engineers working in Gomal Zam dam project.
In the aftermath of Nek’s death, Maulvi Nazir from Ahmadzai Wazir tribe replaced him in Wazir dominated SW, and by and large remained on friendly terms with the Army essentially because of age-old enmity between Wazirs and Mehsuds. He contributed to Afghan Taliban war effort by training and sending fighters. In 2006, he affiliated his group with Jamiat ul Ulema Islam Fazlur Rahman group and established Islamic laws in SW. In March 2007, Nazir in response to Army’s demand, asked Uzbeks to quit SW or disarm and get registered. When they refused to comply, his group battled with them and by April 12 they managed to push them out of their area.
Since both Baitullah and Abdullah vied for gaining dominance over Pakistani Taliban, they operated separately and didn’t enjoy friendly relations. Reportedly, he killed himself with a grenade once he was surrounded by security forces in Zhob on July 24, 2007. Zainuddin took over the leadership of his group. Suspecting that Baitullah had a hand in his death, he got into an alliance with Maulvi Nazir and later also allied with Turkistan Bhittani based in Jandola. Zain-Baitullah animosity peaked from March 2009 onwards and ended when Zain was killed on June 23, 2009 in DIK by a gunman of Baitullah. Pakistan government announced reward money of Rs 50,000,000 for arrest of Baitullah in June 2009.
After restoring order in SW, the security forces then entered Mehsud inhabited SW in 2004 where they were confronted by Baitullah Mehsud. After a hard fight, the troops cleared area up to short of Srarogha, and then both sides agreed to sign peace deal on February 8, 2005. The military agreed to withdraw leaving behind FC troops. The ceasefire however lasted only for five months after which Baitullah resumed attacks and started killing pro-government elements. By that time NW dominated by Hafiz Gul Bahadur led Othmanzai Wazir tribe heated up because of which additional troops had to be sent there from Kohat. Another peace agreement was signed by the Army with Gul Bahadur in September 2006 after the military agreed to remove pickets and release prisoners. Agreement was broken but renewed in August 2008, which is still intact.
In the meanwhile, Bajaur under Maulvi Faqir Muhammad became restive. Efforts to broker peace agreement with Faqir were scuttled by a drone attack on a religious Madrassa in Bajaur on October 30, 2006 killing 82 young students. The ISPR bailed out USA by claiming it was Army’s doing. In retaliation, the militants fired RPG rockets on KP Governor’s security camp and on the convoy of 11 Corps Commander Lt Gen Aurakzai on November 8, 2006. The same day, Punjab Centre’s training centre in Dargai was targeted by a suicide bomber killing 42 recruits and wounding 20. In March 2007, peace deal was inked with Maulvi Faqir in Bajaur. By then, the militants had gained control of three agencies of SW, NW and Bajaur.
Bajaur incident on October 30, 2006 followed by Lal Masjid military operation in July 2007 in which over 100 inmates were killed were two events which galvanized the rural youth from deprived class to gravitate towards militancy. A militant outfit Janood-e-Hafsa comprising militants mostly from Southern Punjab was formed by Asmatullah Muawia to avenge deaths of Lal Masjid and Jamia Hafsa victims. Muawia linked up with Khalid Umar Khurasani led militants in Mehmand Agency and later when Baitullah formed TTP from an alliance of five militant groups in FATA in December 2007, Muawia allied with TTP, which had become more proactive after Lal Masjid tragedy. Hundreds of suicide bombers lined up and there was sudden escalation of suicide attacks in urban centres targeting both military and civilian targets.
TTP is a different entity from Mullah Omar which has confined its fight against Pakistan and Pak security forces only. Over a period of time it has spread its tentacles to settled areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) including Swat, Malakand and Darra Adam Khel (DAK) as well as Pashtun belt of Balochistan, southern Punjab wherefrom large numbers were enrolled as Punjabi Taliban with the help of Muawia and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, and Karachi. TTP was able to convert SW, Swat and Bajaur into highly fortified strongholds. As long as Tariq Afridi was in command of TTP chapter in DAK, he continuously threatened Kohat tunnel. Al-Qaeda linked with TTP provides technical, tactical and financial support to TTP. Several other banned extremist groups engaged in Kashmir Jihad, sectarianism and in criminal activities have joined TTP out of expediency, enabling TTP to strike targets in urban centres.
2007 was a bloody year in which the TTP scored several successes including capture of 247 soldiers on September 2 without firing a shot. Operation Zalzala was launched by 14 Division under Maj Gen Tariq Khan in SW in January 2008 and after achieving tactical success and regaining control, another ceasefire took place in February 2008. Ceasefire didn’t last long as the militants captured Jandola on June 24, 2008, which was later recaptured by the Army.
In Kurram Agency, sectarian war between sub-tribes stoked by foreign hand took a heavy toll of lives. TTP chapter of Kurram Agency under Fazal Saeed Utazai broke away from TTP and formed his own group. Mehmand Agency under Khurasani and Orakzai Agency became hotspots. Turbulence in the two agencies was controlled by launching targeted operations. In Khyber Agency, Mangal Bagh heading Lashkar-e-Islam (LI) emerged in Bara Tehsil in 2007 as a powerful entity and threatened Jamrud and the capital city of Peshawar. After pushing out pro-government Ansar-ul-Islam (AI) from Bara, LI chased it to Tirah Valley. After a hard fight from January to March 2013, LI in collusion with TTP managed to expel AI from Tirah resulting in deaths of 250 and displacement of 2-300,000 people. The Army supported by PAF launched Operation Rah-e-Shahadat and succeeded in evicting the duo by June.
The only two Pashtun militant groups which stayed out of TTP and stuck to peace agreements with Army were Maulvi Nazir led group in SW and Hafiz Gul Bahadur led group in NW. In addition, a group led by Sirajuddin Haqqani based in NW is also friendly to the government and Army. On June 21, 2006 Sirajuddin had issued a decree that it was not Afghan Taliban policy to fight Pak Army. His father Jalaluddin Haqqani, a leading war veteran of Afghan Jihad against the Soviets had migrated with his family to NW in 1980, but later on shifted back to his hometown Khost. His youngest son Omar Haqqani was killed in Khost in 2008, while other two sons Badruddin and Mohammad were killed by drones in NW in 2009 and August 2013 respectively. Recently, the fourth son Dr. Naseeruddin Haqqani was murdered in Islamabad on November 11, 2013. Possible suspects are CIA and Afghan NDS since Haqqani Network has been banned by USA and considered as a huge threat in Eastern Afghanistan and Kabul. Sirajuddin carries head bounty of $5 million.
Swat and Malakand Division under the sway of Maulana Fazlullah, son-in-law of TNSM’s head Maulana Sufi, virtually made Swat into a State within a State and unleashed a reign of terror on the people of Swat and surrounding districts between 2007 and early 2009. Known as ‘Mullah Radio’, he not only exhorted people on radio to join his cadre but also trained teenage boys as suicide bombers at Mingora and at his HQ in Peochar. Bajaur became the exclusive domain of Maulvi Faqir Muhammad because of easy inflow of arms, equipment and funds from Kunar. This route of supply was also used for Swat via Dir. Srarogha became the command centre of TTP where Qari Hussain trained small boys aged between 11 to 18 years as suicide bombers. The three fortifications of Swat, Bajaur and SW had stored tons of sophisticated weaponry, ammunition and explosives in secret tunnels and caves to last them for next ten years.
After the second military operation in Swat, peace deal was signed with Maulana Sufi and Fazlullah in February 2009. KP government agreed to introduce Nizam-e-Adal in Swat and Malakand Division and the other side agreed to renounce violence. Hardly had the ink dried on the agreement when Fazllulah’s men opened new fronts in Buner and Lower Dir, which raised alarm bells that militants were working their way towards Islamabad. All political forces got together and passed a joint resolution to combat the militant threat with full force. It led to launching of military operation codenamed Rah-e-Rast on April 26, 2009 which ensued heavy fighting but in the end security forces supported by PAF emerged as winners. Injured Fazlullah and his key leaders escaped to Kunar. Many fled to Karachi and got settled in Pashtun community.
Heavy fighting ensued in Loisam area of Bajaur in August 2008 in which hundreds of foreign fighters poured in from Afghanistan. Situation was stabilized within four days. In response to a suicide attack on Marriot Hotel in Islamabad in September 2008 planned by Faqir’s men, an offensive was launched in Bajaur. By the time an operation was launched in Swat, all areas under the control of militants in Bajaur were recaptured and over 1000 militants including five high profile al-Qaeda operatives were killed and RAW trained Afghan militants pushed out. Peace was restored after Faqir and his hardcore militants fled to Kunar.
On night of August 5, 2009, Baitullah Mehsud was killed by a drone in the house of in-laws of his recently married second wife in SW. It led to war of succession but ultimately Baitullah’s bodyguard and driver Hakeemullah Mehsud was appointed the Ameer of TTP on August 22, who was as vicious as Fazlullah. However, the cracks in TTP never got repaired. Notwithstanding inner tensions, the Mehsuds suspected Maulvi Nazir’s hand in the killing of their Ameer and attacked his camp in late August 2009 resulting in deaths of several men of Nazir.
Baitullah’s death and impending operation in SW impelled Hakeemullah to step up terrorist attacks. 2009 saw commencement of group attacks in Lahore. October 2009 was the heaviest in which GHQ was attacked on 10th, a military convoy was hit on 12th killing 41 soldiers, FIA building in Lahore attacked on 15th, ISI office in Peshawar on 16th, Islamic University Islamabad on 20th, a Brig was killed on 22nd, security post at Kamra attacked on 23rd, bomb blast in a restaurant in Peshawar on the same day, a Brig and his mother were shot at in Islamabad on 27th. Market in Shangla, police stations in Kohat and Peshawar and UN World Food Program offices in Islamabad were also targeted. These attacks impelled Gen Ashfaq Kayani to launch another military operation against the strongest base of TTP in SW. Operation Rah-e-Nijat was unleashed on 17th October 2009 and despite stiff resistance, the bastion of power was overpowered in a month time.
The operation owed its success to Maulvi Nazir and Gul Bahadur’s cooperation who agreed not to disturb Army’s bases of operations resting within their respective areas of influence. Mehsuds ignored Bahadur but not Nazir. An attempt was made on him by a suicide bomber in November 2011, in which he received injuries but survived. In order to get back to his hometown in Makeen and also to extend his influence into Wazir dominated SW, it is speculated that Hakeemullah planned to kill his rival Maulvi Nazir. He passed on the information to NDS about his location through his emissary, which enabled CIA to kill him with drone near Angoor Adda in SW on January 2, 2013.
With the dismantling of their main base in SW, the disarrayed TTP fighters sought refuge in other tribal agencies and in neighboring Nangarhar. Nucleus of TTP however shifted to Mirali in NW inhabited by second biggest tribe of Dawars after Othmanzai Wazir tribe. Some took refuge in area of Torikhel sub-tribe of Othmanzai tribe, reputed to be most ferocious fighters. For all practical purposes, TTP had lost its fighting potential after Operation Rah-e-Nijat. However, RAW and Afghan National Directorate of Security (NDS) with the blessing of CIA reinvigorated TTP that had been created with a set agenda to pulverize Pak Army. Absconding Fazlullah, Faqir, Khurasani and their men were activated in safe havens of Kunar and Nuristan. They were given houses, free rations and monthly pay as well arms and training facilities and launched into Dir, Mehmand, Bajaur and Chitral to heat up western border. Likewise, empty kitty of TTP was refilled and assigned new targets.
The TTP’s relocated base is now in NW, but its tentacles are spread all over the country. During the period of 2011-2012, large number of terrorist groups banned by Pakistan teamed up with TTP thereby strengthening the hands of Hakeemullah, but also added to his command and control problems. Most of the groups are Punjab based and the total numbers of groups are over 50 including 37 offshoot groups of TTP. Linkage of Punjabi Taliban led by Asmatullah Muawia with TTP has given the TTP added advantage to strike targets within Punjab. Knowing that he was the most wanted man and the US had kept $5 million head money on him in 2010 after the deadly suicide attack on CIA base in Khost, Hakeemullah kept changing his abodes frequently and hardly stayed in NW to protect himself from drones. For all practical purposes, his deputy Waliur Rahman managed TTP’s affairs. Qari Hussain’s death by a drone further weakened the hold of Hakimullah and strengthened Wali led lobby favoring talks with the government.
Death of Waliur Rahman on May 30, 2013 disrupted the peace process that had begun to shape up after the election of pro-talks federal government and KP government. Hakeemullah appointed Khalid, alias Sajna, another pro-peace TTP leader and close friend of Wali as his deputy and head of TTP chapter in SW. But he never felt comfortable with him since he was more inclined towards anti-peace group. When Nawaz Sharif offered dialogue in his address to the nation in August, some of the TTP leaders like Ehsanullah Ehsan, Sajna and Muawia hailed his offer. Considering it to be an act of defiance against the policy of TTP Shura, Hakeemullah sacked Ehsan and Muawia and replaced Sajna with his very close confidante Latif Mehsud as his deputy and also appointed him as head of TTP chapter NW.
His knee-jerk reactions indicated growing rift within TTP between pro-peace and anti-peace groups. The latter group has remained stuck to their stance of holding talks with the government from a position of strength with the aim of getting the constitution radically altered by injecting Islamic clauses, replacing Anglo-Saxon laws with Islamic laws, getting all their prisoners released, ending drone war, getting out of US imposed war and sharing power.
Arrest of Hakeemullah’s deputy Latif Mehsud in Afghanistan by US Special Forces in end October became big news. Reportedly, he was being escorted by NDS officials to Jalalabad to meet Indian High Commissioner. Another report says that he was sent as TTP emissary to Afghanistan by Hakeemullah to procure monetary and material assistance from NDS and guidance regarding peace talks offered by Pak government. Assigning future tasks besides meeting their demands by the NDS in league with RAW has been a routine affair for the last many years. None can deny that the US led ISAF and CIA are in full knowledge of TTP secret links with NDS and RAW and covert operations supervised by RAW. It is also a known fact that TTP is an asset of CIA, RAW and NDS and the trio have played a role in the election of TTP Ameer. Hakeemullah had earned applauds for carrying out sensational terror attacks against military targets in Pakistan.
The leading story is that in the face of fast changing ground situation in Afghanistan because of Taliban’s uncontrollable resurgence, Karzai’s tantrums and efforts to disrupt Doha peace initiative, rising incidents of in-house attacks and Pakistan’s grievances that the US had done nothing to address its security concerns, and the US having eventually realized that ISAF’s safe pullout from Afghanistan was not possible without Pakistan’s willing cooperation, Latif was arrested by the US military to mollify Pakistan and to warm up its frosty relations. It is also being said that CIA is abandoning TTP.
The actual story is however similar to the one related to Maulvi Nazir’s death. Hakeemullah had become a liability for his patrons after he got inclined to peace talks and hence marked as a target. He had to be bumped off and another Ameer, totally in their iron grip, chosen. Latif was arrested because he was the only one who knew the exact program of Hakeemullah’s planned visit to NW on October 31. Probably $ 5 million award was too attractive an inducement for Latif to change his loyalties who otherwise was not in favor of talks. To assume that CIA has lost interest in TTP will be premature. CIA will use this card to keep Pakistan under pressure during its transition phase.
Hakeemullah was killed by a drone in Dandey Darpakhel on October 31, 2013 at a time when he had accepted the dialogue offer and was expected to meet the government delegation of three Ulema on the following day. Ch Nisar had worked hard to tie up the loose ends and was very hopeful for a breakthrough. It was natural for peace lovers to feel disturbed over the gory incident, which was a willful attempt to derail peace process. To suspect that Pak government had a hand in killing of Hakeemullah, it doesn’t make sense. Karzai’s outburst of anger over arrest of Latif was a put up show.
Asmatullah Shaheen was named interim TTP chief and on November 7, much to the surprise of all and sundry the most ruthless and wanted man in Pakistan Fazlullah was named as the new Ameer and equally brutal Khalid Haqqani hailing from Swabi as his deputy. It is for the first time that both the top appointments have been doled out to non-tribesmen. In his urge to prove that he is as good, if not better than his predecessors in the field of militancy, Fazlullah would strive to intensify militancy and strike high profile targets. He will do as told to do by his benefactors. TTP spokesman Azam Tariq has threatened that “every drop of Hakeemullah’s blood will turn into a suicide bomber. Reprisal attacks have already started.
Regardless of the threats and TTP’s announcement that no talks will be held, the government is determined to pursue the dialogue process to end a violent anti-State campaign that has claimed well over 40,000 lives. Talking from position of weakness would however be a recipe for disaster. Efforts must continue to cultivate and strengthen pro-talks groups and isolate and weaken anti-peace talks groups led by Fazlullah. At the same time, well-thought out strategy must be devised how to checkmate new wave of violence in the coming months. The US and Karzai regime must be clearly told to stop their double game and hand over Fazlullah at the earliest, or else, Pak Army should take out its armed drone from the closet and have a go. Gul Bahadur has been unable to control activities of TTP and other militant groups based in NW despite his pleadings and warnings. Neither his Shura Muraqba has been able to control violence and vices. He must assert his authority to checkmate terrorism emanating out of NW before the government is compelled to launch a major operation.
The writer is a retired Brig, defence analyst, columnist and a researcher. [email protected]
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