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Pakistan sailing in choppy waters by Brig.Gen(Retd) Asif Haroon Raja

Pakistan sailing in choppy waters

Asif Haroon Raja

 

After 9/11, the US in league with NATO, Israel and India initiated the global war on terror under the pretext of making the world safe, secure and peaceful. The hidden objectives of the adventurers were to destroy militarily and economically strong Muslim nations, rob their resources and to neo-colonize the Muslim world. Pakistan was not included in the declared axis of evil since, without its intimate cooperation, Afghanistan could not be occupied. However, the main objective of Indo-US-Israel nexus was to destabilize and denuclearize Pakistan and to make it a compliant state.  

In the last 18 years, several Muslim countries have been destroyed. Pakistan has been badly mauled on account of its decision to fight the US imposed war on its soil against own people, hoping to make Pakistan strong and prosperous. Nothing of the sort has happened.

Pakistan continues to sail in choppy waters and is faced with multiple challenges both on internal and external fronts. Internally, the political situation is murky, the economy is in a crunch, the debt burden is too heavy, 18th Amendment is becoming a threat to the federation on account of fissiparous tendencies in smaller provinces where RAW has made deep inroads, CPEC has lost its vigour and PTM has emerged as a new threat. People are getting disillusioned due to unfulfilled promises made by the incumbent govt. Life of the people living below the poverty line is becoming unbearable due to high inflation and price hike. The lower/ middle classes are feeling the pinch of soaring prices of daily commodities, heavy utility bills and increasing unemployment. After the passage of 17 months, the people see no change in the so-called Naya Pakistan as the overall socio-economic conditions have worsened. Hopes of better days in 2020 are fading in the wake of Coronavirus which will impact Pakistan’s economy and CPEC. 

Externally, India is continuing to maintain a highly belligerent posture. The LoC in Kashmir remains hot as ever. In each exchange of fire, civilians living close to LoC and soldiers lose lives or get injured. Dreaming of converting Bharat into a Hindu State, the fascist regime of Modi has introduced a discriminatory Citizenship law which is entirely Muslim specific.

The northwestern front remains unstable due to cross border terrorism patronized by RAW-NDS, backed by the CIA. The Afghan Taliban are smelling victory which is within their grasping reach. They have forced the US to sign a peace deal and arrive at a political settlement. While insisting upon the occupying forces to exit, they have refused to hold direct talks with the Afghan unity regime which in their view is illegitimate. They are also refusing to ceasefire permanently till the signing of peace agreement duly guaranteed by regional powers and complete withdrawal of occupation forces.

Pakistan is going out of the way to help the US to extract maximum concessions from the Taliban who have for all practical purposes won the war and are in a position to dictate terms. For unknown reasons, Pakistan in its bid to win the affections of untrustworthy USA is pressing the Taliban to agree to the terms of the USA and is also requesting the USA not to exit without making Afghanistan stable. This is incomprehensible since the US is among the spoilers wanting to keep Afghanistan unstable and to prolong its stay.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Our southern backyard has also become turbulent because of Trump’s belligerence and deployment of US forces in the Persian Gulf. The killing of Iranian and Iraqi commanders by the US drone and Iran’s retaliatory strikes on the US military bases in Iraq together with ongoing protests in Iraq have made the situation grave.  

Both Israel and India are the worst abusers of human rights and use state terrorism, torture and rapes as tools to subdue the Palestinians and Kashmiris. The US patronise both and brazenly defends their crimes against humanity. Trump has now come with a highly discriminatory Middle East peace plan which wholly favours Israel. Tomorrow, he will float another peace plan to resolve Kashmir dispute which will be entirely in favour of India.

We have gladly accepted the mediation offer of untrustworthy Trump. He must not be trusted to mediate in Kashmir. He is in a position to pressurize India but has done nothing to lessen the pains of Kashmiris and in a way has tacitly accepted the abrogation of Articles 370 and 35A as well as Indian policy of subjugation of Kashmiris.

Trump is trying to convince our leadership that in order to save AJK and GB, it will be advisable for Pakistan to accept the LoC as the permanent border and that he will extend full support in this regard. This option was given to ZA Bhutto by Indira Gandhi in 1972, but he shrewdly pushed it aside by converting Ceasefire Line into LoC and accepted policy of bilateral-ism, which of course helped India to keep delaying the resolution of the dispute and finally claim that the UN resolutions had become outdated.

Nawaz Sharif (NS) was close to agreeing on Chenab Formula after the visit of Vajpayee to Lahore in Feb 1999. Likewise, Gen Musharraf in his exuberance to settle the dispute, threw away Pakistan’s stance based on UN Resolutions out of the window and offered out of box solution which in many ways accepted the conversion of LoC into a border.

Each time, Pakistani leaders ignored the Kashmiris who are the main stakeholders and without their consent no lasting solution or peace is possible. I pray our present leaders do not tread the wrong path of NS and Musharraf and insist on giving the right of self-determination to the Kashmiris and let them decide their future course of action.

Gen Ziaul Haq fought the Afghan Jihad in the 1980s in Afghanistan and kept the control levers in the hands of ISI only. Contrarily, Gen Musharraf agreed to fight war on terror on Pak soil, whereas the battleground was Afghanistan. He also let six foreign intelligence agencies based in Kabul to manage the war in which ISI was kept out. Indo-US-Israel-Afghan nexus have a dangerous agenda against Pakistan, but Musharraf mistook them as friends of Pakistan and kept doing more to please the USA. As a result, Pakistan suffered grievously and is still suffering since it has still not come out of the magic spell of USA.

Modi has been threatening to deprive Pakistan of a single drop of water from Rivers Chenab and Jhelum. India can accomplish its objective if it occupies a major chunk of AJK. The Indian Army Chief and Modi have given open threats of annexing AJK in 7-10 days. This threat has been given in the backdrop of concentration of 9 lacs forces in Kashmir.

So far Pakistan seems to have not worked out any strategy to deal with Indian bellicosity and its dangerous designs. We are working on the policy of wait and see and seem to be hoping for divine help. Myopia and inaction amount to criminal negligence.

Indian Occupied Kashmir has been in a locked-down for six months, but so far no steps in Indian Occupied Kashmir have been taken to provide relief to the marooned 8 million Kashmiris, to keep them motivated and the freedom movement alive.

We have so far done little to prepare the people of AJK and GB for the impending war. Instead of carrying out war preparations and imparting military training to students of schools and colleges, activating civil defence forces and motivating volunteers, a policy of restraint has been adopted and people are advised to stay calm.

Likewise, our policy of taking no covert or overt action after the absorption of IOK by India on August 5, 2019, and now waiting for the Indian military to attack AJK and GB and then give a befitting response is a defensive policy.

There are no plans to exploit the Godsend opportunity that has come our way in the form of nationwide protests in India coupled with numerous separatist movements and insurgencies. India has become a tinderbox and needs a matchstick to put it on fire.

Are we hoping that India will change its goals against Pakistan, or are waiting for the US [sgmb id=”2″]help which after bleeding us in the war on terror has now tightened the noose of IMF-FATF around Pakistan’s neck or China’s help which is unfortunately caught up in Coronavirus crisis? Will it be better to fight the war on home ground or in IOK?

So far the Kashmiris on both sides of the divide hate India and love Pakistan. These sentiments may not last long if we adopt a passive attitude. Nationwide protests in India against highly discriminatory CAA Bill and calls for independence in the northeastern states of India together with downslide in the Indian economy have flustered Indian leadership. It is an opportunity of the century which may not come again. In our quest for peace with India without any reciprocity and to present ourselves as good boys before the world, we have no intention of exploiting the ongoing vulnerabilities of India. On the other hand, India creates or blows up our vulnerabilities and never let’s go any opportunity that comes it is a way to harm Pakistan.

Besides making all-out efforts to stabilize our home-front which at the moment is divided, and providing relief to the people, we need to adopt offensive defence military policy coupled with proactive and aggressive diplomatic policy and independent foreign policy. While maintaining friendly relations with the US, our emphasis should shift from the west to the east. We can rely on China, Turkey, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, and can easily bring Iran and Russia in our loop, both having given ample hints to forge deeper relations.

The writer is a retired Brig Gen of Pakistan Army. He is veteran, defence, security & political analyst, columnist, author of five books, Chairman Thinkers Forum Pakistan, Director Measac Research Center, and Member CWC & Think Tank PESS.

asifharoonraja@gmail.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Pakistan Should Ditch Washington by Brian Cloughly

To the despair of State Department professionals (who are very professional indeed), the art and craft of US diplomacy have taken a very nasty knock since the appearance of Donald Trump on the world stage. To be sure, the practice of sending rich political donors to prime ambassadorial posts such as Berlin, Tokyo and London has been the norm for decades, but some of Trump’s appointees have stretched the bubble of amateurism a little too far.  The man in Germany, for example, was only in the job for a day, in May this year, before he gave orders that “German companies doing business in Iran should wind down operations immediately,” which début debacle was met with derision by the German people.

The pompous ass in London, billionaire Woody Johnson, was interviewed by Sky News in June 2018 and cast an intriguing light on his expertise concerning his host country. When he was asked the nature of his relationship with Sadiq Khan he replied: “with whom?”  The interviewer then told him that Sadiq Khan is the Mayor of London, whereupon Woody announced that “My relationship is very good.”

Then President Trump informed London’s Sun newspaper that “You have a mayor who has done a terrible job in London. He has done a terrible job.”

 

Image result for Trump US Stabs Pakistan

 

 

There’s not much joined-up diplomacy in the Trump Administration, but although these examples are mildly amusing and show the people involved to be the fools they are, there is a most serious side to the international diplomatic devastation created by Trump, the man so well described by dismissed White House aide Omarosa Manigault Newman as “tawdry, cruel, vindictive.”

The disconnect was highlighted on August 13, the day before Pakistan’s Independence Day, when US Secretary of State Pompeo messaged “On behalf of the Government of the United States of America, I would like to extend my best wishes to the people of Pakistan as they celebrate their independence day.  For more than seven decades, the relationship between the United States and Pakistan has rested on the strong foundation of close ties between our two peoples.  In the years ahead, we hope to further strengthen these bonds, as we continue to look for opportunities to work with the people and Government of Pakistan to advance our shared goals of security, stability, and prosperity in South Asia.”

This supposedly friendly greeting was sent to a country about which Trump had tweeted that “The United States has foolishly given Pakistan more than 33 billion dollars in aid over the last 15 years, and they have given us nothing but lies & deceit, thinking of our leaders as fools. They give safe haven to the terrorists we hunt in Afghanistan, with little help. No more!”

“Strengthen bonds”, anyone? Washington must be unhinged (to employ the title of the Omarosa book) to imagine that a few clichés about “shared goals” might in some way cancel out Trump’s malevolent insults.

Not only this, but Washington has made one of the gravest diplomatic errors of its many with Pakistan by suspending the US International Military Education and Training (IMET) programme. This doesn’t sound much, but it is probably the most serious setback in Pakistan-US relations thus far in the Trump regime’s fandangos of international incompetence.

The most important part of IMET was the annual training in the US of some 60-70 Pakistan armed forces’ officers, including at the US Army War College (one of the most professional —  that word again — military academies in the world). It cannot be emphasised too much that this sort of hosting pays enormous dividends. Not only is participation in specialised discussion and mixing with people of different views most beneficial to students and hosts, but personal contacts build trust and expand horizons.  It cannot be valued in money.  You simply can’t put a price on it, which I found an enormous and indeed insuperable hurdle when I was trying to convince pointy-headed Australian bureaucrats that hosting foreign students and sending our people abroad would pay dividends in the future.

Not for nothing is the motto of the US War College “Prudens Futuri, which is usually translated as “Be provident for the future.” But at the moment, Washington’s thinking about the future appears to be limited to the mid-term elections and (appalling thought) the re-election of Trump in 2020.

Meantime, Pakistan suffers from US bullying and intimidation, with the “bond-strengthening” Pompeo making threats about what might happen as a result of a loan to Pakistan by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).  He issued a warning that an IMF credit would be conditional on a promise that none of the money is used to repay Chinese debt, which is a weird way of trying to “advance our shared goals of security, stability, and prosperity.”

Pompeo told CNBC that “Make no mistake. We will be watching what the IMF does. There’s no rationale for IMF tax dollars, and associated with those American dollars that are part of the IMF funding, for those to go to bail out Chinese bondholders or China itself.”

But the arrogant assumption that Washington can dictate everything to the world doesn’t intimidate China, Russia or Pakistan.  The China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project linking China’s western provinces through Pakistan to the Arabian Sea is worth $62 billion, and other economic and defence links with China are commercially, politically and socially of much more importance to Pakistan than its tenuous and increasingly fragmenting connections with the United States. There are some who scoff at CPEC, like Husain Haqqani, a former Pakistani ambassador to Washington and CIA asset, who, according to the Washington Post, “quipped that the Chinese-Pakistan Economic Corridor . . . actually should be called “Colonizing Pakistan to Enrich China.”

Washington’s growing arrogance doesn’t intimidate Russia, either, and in the light of increasing confrontation by the US-NATO military alliance, it is apparent that a new era in Moscow-Islamabad cooperation has dawned. For a start, as reported by Voice of America on August 8, “Pakistan has wrapped up a ground-breaking contract with Russia that would, for the first time, open doors for Russian military training of Pakistani army officers. The rare deal comes amid deteriorating relations between Islamabad and the United States, which has resulted in the halt of all military exchange programs with Pakistan and left a void that Moscow has stepped in to fill.” Washington will rue the day it closed the doors of professional colleges to Pakistan’s military officers.

Not only that, but Russia has provided Mi-35M combat helicopters to Pakistan, and the two countries’ armies have held two counter-terrorism military exercises, while their navies “recently participated in joint antidrug exercises in the Arabian Sea. The latest naval collaboration took place last week in St Petersburg, where a Pakistani warship participated in the major Russian Navy Day parade.”  Their cooperation will develop and expand, to their mutual benefit.

Pakistan is wise to engage with China and Russia and should ditch the Washington Empire.

Prudens futuri.

More articles by 

Brian Cloughley writes about foreign policy and military affairs. He lives in Voutenay sur Cure, France.

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Bajwa’s Beijing sojourn by S M Hali

Bajwa’s Beijing sojourn

According to the Chinese media, in all the meetings, both the sides have resolved to strengthen the relations between, Pakistan and China and continue the progress of the CPEC. China appreciated the security initiatives taken by the Pakistan Army for the ongoing CPEC projects and expressed the desire to benefit from Pakistan’s military experience

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Trump’s Hydra-headed National Security Strategy   General Mirza Aslam Beg Former COAS Pakistan

Trump’s Hydra-headed National Security Strategy

 

General Mirza Aslam Beg

Former Chief of Army Staff, Pakistan

friendscolumn@hotmail.com

 

 

“Trump’s Security Strategy is a farce because it has no National Security Strategy.  It has outbursts.” – Roger Cohen

 

Trump’s outbursts grow from his notion of America First, where he merges his existence with passion, that defines his National Security Policy:

Protect homeland way of life; promote American prosperity; persevere peace through strength; advance American influence in the world; build India as a counterweight to China.

Trump strategy flows from the above policy. It is a hydra-headed strategy, targeting Palestine, Afghanistan, Iran, China, North Korea and Pakistan in particular

Palestine. Trump celebrates the 100 years of Balfour Declaration of 1917, which is a public statement issued by the British government during World War I, announcing support for the establishment of a “national home for the Jewish people” in Palestine, then an Ottoman region with a minority Jewish population. It read:

His Majesty’s government view with favour the establishment in Palestine of a national home for the Jewish people, and will use their best endeavours to facilitate the achievement of this object, it being clearly understood that nothing shall be done which may prejudice the civil and religious rights of existing non-Jewish communities in Palestine, or the rights and political status enjoyed by Jews in any other country.”

 

              Thus Trump has wrecked the possibility of establishing the states of Palestine and Israel, bringing the whole of Middle East to a state of crisis and catastrophe. This would result in decimation and destruction of more Muslim countries like Crusade one, which began in 2001. This is now Crusade Two, “to advance American influence in the world through strength.” Therefore chances of peace in Palestine now are remote, because the Arab World has its interests diverted towards war in Syria, Iraq and Daēsh and is engaged in managing the ravages of Arab Spring, while America, who could negotiate peace, has taken sides with Israel.

Afghanistan.

America Lost the War in Afghanistan- Egged-On By Trump Business Partners in India -Trump Wants to Make Pakistan the Fall Guy for US Afghanistan Failures

 America lost the war in Afghanistan by the year 2010, when they sent Richard Armitage to me, seeking dialogue with Afghan Taliban, who were not ready to be cheated again, as in 1990 and demanded occupation forces withdrawal as the pre-condition for talks. Despite setbacks and a gradual erosion of authority, Trump continues to reinforce his defeat through various machinations such as indirect support to Daēsh in Afghanistan, thus creating very serious security dilemma to all the neighbouring countries. He is also threatening Pakistan, to contain and curb the rising power of the Afghan resistance, so that he could “build India as the counter-weight to China”, and establish Indian hegemony from Afghanistan to Bangladesh, under the Indo-Pacific Regime. The purpose is “to persevere peace through Strength.”

Iran. Since 1980, Iran has been demonized as a serious threat to the regional countries, yet Iran has emerged resilient and strong despite sanctions, embargoes and trade restrictions, compelling America to find peace with Iran, by signing the Nuclear Deal. Trump now calls this deal “the worst deal ever been negotiated” and is not ready to sign the waivers on Iran sanctions, and threatens that “the best way to lock-in the Iranian hard-liners for the two decades would be to tear up the deal.” Trump may tear-up the deal, yet he cannot shake-off the resolve and self-confidence of the Iranian people, to “struggle to persevere peace through strength.”

Trump Choose India as a Counter-weight to China

China. Trump has called China “the strategic competitor.” Instead of joining hands with China and follow their geo-economic strategy of peace through regional cooperation, he is trying to build-up the Indian counter-weight, against the rising military and economic power of China. The Indian Counter-weight, which could not contain and curb Pakistan from rising, now has been assigned the task to contain China, with “the United States locked and loaded”, in support of India. A withering superpower could do no better than this.

Trump’s Policy Focused on Containment of China

North Korea. With limited nuclear weapon delivery capability, North Korea has been able to deter America, despite possessing a stockpile of nuclear weapons, most efficient delivery system and a state of the art air defence capability. Yet America has failed to develop a strategy that could build up pressure on North Korea and is showing a kind of helplessness, expecting China to bring sanity to the North Korean leader. The state of helplessness in case of North Korea, as well as Afghanistan, exposes the hollowness of super-power America, trying to advance their influence in the world, through farce policy initiatives.

Iran-Afghanistan-China-Pakistan-Russia

Pakistan lies at the centre stage of the regional conflict syndrome. It has to tread carefully protecting its interests, through the support of the people, embodied in the elected parliament, and building blocks of regional support of Iran-Afghanistan-Pakistan, under the security partnership of China and Russia. Pakistani nation shares with Iran, the will to resist and reject, pressures and threats and continues to rise with the sublime dignity of the great civilizations with whom it shares common borders.

Pakistan – Heart of Asia

Pakistan is the Heart of Asia, as late Liaquat Ali Khan reminded the nation and we have to prove to be true to this great heritage.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Superficial Emergency Session of the OIC

The Emergency Session of the OIC did not show any seriousness amongst the members of the states. Only a few heads of the State attended. There has been an erosion of unity amongst them, and the Arab world, in particular, has been in a state of disarray after the Arab Spring. Taking advantage of the regional anarchy, America and Israel have struck, which seriously “prejudices the civil and religious rights of the Muslims and other communities of Palestine”. The situation poses a big challenge to the entire Muslim World. Except for Turkey and Iran, none seem to be taking the matter seriously. The UN General Assembly has overwhelmingly voted against Trump’s Palestine Policy, and hopefully, it would put a check to Israel’s ambition of expanding at the cost of Arab territories for Greater Israel!

 

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Jeopardize OBOR by Asad Khan Betini

Jeopardize OBOR

Asad Khan Betini

 

China’s one belt one road (OBOR) is changing the world order since it is leading China to influence the western European market. Chinese liberal policy in terms of trade is being viewed as a windfall while CPEC being part of it is the foundation milestone of the project. China is Pakistan’s time-tested friend and has always backed Pakistan economically and logistically despite Islamabad’s cuddling with Washington. Sino-Pak friendship is a firm knot which can’t be unlocked but yet it seems that conspiracies have amplified to imbalance Sino-Pak relations and may endanger the grant. India has recently put proposals before China to reconsider Bangladesh, China, India, and Myanmar (BCIM) as an alternate corridor. India has also resorted to developing Chabahar and Abbass ports to improve trade with Iran and Afghanistan. India’s participation in developing Iran’s Chabahar port with an investment of $85.21 million is being viewed as dominant role in South Asia. Dehli’s investment in Chabahar port will definitely permit India to access & control the Strait of Hormuz that will even provide Israel an access to the Strait of Hormuz for the reason that India is Israel’s time-test friend.  

 

 

 

 

 

On the other hand, India has raised concerns over growing militant hideouts in Pakistan, India is also proposing China to unleash Pakistan’s secret support to militants that are threatening the regional security and stability, even BRICS summit was predisposed by India to speak on Islamabad’s role on terrorism that brought China to play part for Indian bogey.

Accordingly, India has made reservations that East Turkistan Islamic Party (ECIP) is becoming threat to Chinese projects in deep state with sanctuaries in Tribal areas of Pakistan, but all these claims are yet unacceptable to China since Indo-US and Israel’s nexus is getting stronger and India has been identified as the largest recipient of U.S economic assistance.US may endanger the track of China’s One Belt One Road (OBOR) once India gains its access and control Chabahar port.

India aspired to play a more dominant role in South Asia and it is openly believed that India intensified its attacks through proxy militants in Pakistani resource-rich province “Balochistan” and yet engaged in destruction activities, target killings, bomb blasts in Balochistan but security apparatus in Baluchistan has failed to counter terrorism. 

 

 

 

 

 

This is not a portent anymore rather a fact, Kulbhoshan Jadhav has claimed all responsibilities for the operations carried out in Pakistani mineral-rich province yet Indo-US plans are to reinvigorate Free Balochistan Movement through fundraising campaigns abroad which are deeply seen as a threat to the existence of Pakistan. It may knock Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine to save its self from foreign aggression, China strongly backs Pakistan in a bid to protect its OBOR’s objectives.

Indo-Us fulcrum is seen as a threat by China since the US is concerned with Chinese liberal influence in the Western Europe. China is softly influencing the international market, particularly developing countries are now getting loans from Chinese International Investment bank (CIIB) rather than World Bank or IMF.

The world order is slowly spinning and CPEC is becoming game changer project in the region. Pakistan needs to promote its education sector, enhance security apparatus and ensure development, friendship, and peace with the neighboring countries for the long term to make it more successful. Pakistan needs to promote Islamic coalition bloc and must arbitrate between Saudi and Iran for détente, even Chinese foreign direct investments can fulfill the needs of Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, so Pakistan must step forward to integrate Muslim brotherhood.

The Writer is Balochistan Based Freelance Journalist – He can be reached at asdprg@gmail.com

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