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Archive for June, 2016

THE PAKISTAN NAVY INDUCTS A NEW ANTI-SHIP MISSILE – “ZARB”

A C-602 being fired in China from a land-based launch vehicle.

THE PAKISTAN NAVY INDUCTS A NEW ANTI-SHIP MISSILE – “ZARB”

 

 

Is Pakistan now producing Chinese anti-ship missiles under license?

10 April 2016

By Bilal Khan

The Pakistan Navy has recently test-fired a shore-based anti-ship missile (AShM) named “Zarb.” Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) did not offer any specific information, such as range, speed, or payload weight.

Pakistan had issued a navigational warning notice several days in advance of the test. The maximum range allotted for the test was set at 300km, which was compliant with the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), an international legal framework that regulates commercial missile and drone sales on the global arms market.

The Zarb was inducted to enhance Pakistan’s area denial capabilities by equipping its coastal areas with AShM-tipped launch batteries, which in turn could fire AShMs at intruding surface ships up to a maximum range of 300km.

Upon concluding the test, the Navy announced that it had formally inducted the Zarb AShM. With no prior tests registered over the Arabian Sea, and the fact that it is MTCR-compliant, it is likely that the Zarb is an off-the-shelf purchase.

That said, the specific characteristics of the Zarb AShM are unknown. Given the fact that it was tested from a coastal battery, it is plausible to suggest that the Zarb is basically the C-602.

Produced by China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC), the C-602 is a heavy AShM capable of delivering a 300kg warhead. A heavier variant (with a 480kg warhead) is also available in the form of the CM-602G.

The idea of Pakistan acquiring the C-602 is not a surprise, but the use of a local name (i.e. Zarb) suggests that the missile is being produced domestically.

Given the added cost of such a technology transfer (i.e. to produce the missile domestically), would it not make more sense for Pakistan to acquire the C-802 instead? At this time, the C-602 can only be used from Pakistan’s coasts, there are no surface warships or aircraft capable of carrying such a heavy munition.

On the other hand, the C-802 is in use with the Pakistan Navy’s Zulfiqar-class (F-22P) frigates, Azmat-class fast attack crafts (FAC), and even the Pakistan Air Force’s (PAF) JF-17s. Moreover, there is nothing to stop the C-802 from being launched from land either.

The comparatively widespread adoption of the C-802 within the Pakistan Armed Forces makes it a more suitable candidate for local production than the C-602. In any case, this is speculation on our part, it still has not been confirmed whether the Zarb is being locally produced (under license or otherwise).

 

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WHY PAKISTAN IS AN HOMELAND FOR SOUTH ASIAN MUSLIMS? Truth:Gujarat 2002:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gujarat Massacre 2002

 

 

 

 

http://www.americanjusticecenter.org/ajc-files-criminal-case-in-australia-against-indian-pm-narendra-modi/

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New Evidence Establishes that Narendra Modi was Directly Monitoring Tulsi Prajapati Fake Encounter

modi-nawaz-shareef-joke-funny-troll

 

 

 

New Evidence Establishes that Narendra Modi was Directly Monitoring Tulsi Prajapati Fake Encounter

 
 

While researching the conspiracy behind Modi’s IT story, we also looked at the antecedents of Narendra Modi’s own website “narendramodi.in”. We discovered that the registrant of Modi’s website is a gentleman named Parag Shah ([email protected]). While researching Parag’s background, we found his LinkedIn profile:

Parag Shah's LinkedIn Profile
 

What caught our attention in Parag’s LinkedIn profile was his appointment as the “Officer on Special Duty (OSD)†to the Gujarat Chief Minister for the period 2003 to 2008 and another fact stated by him: “Associated with cyber cell of Anti-terrorist Squadâ€. This accidental finding lead us to the missing link of the Sohrabuddin-Tulsi Prajapati fake encounter!

Thereafter, we looked at the supplementary charge sheet filed by CBI in the Tulsi Prajapati case, specially where the CBI has elaborately dealt with the Call Data Records (CDR) of Amit Shah and Rajkumar Pandian, who were in constant touch with each other while monitoring the movements of Tulsi Prjapati between Udaipur (where he was jailed) and Ahmedabad (where he was being brought to attend a criminal case). We reproduce the extract of the CBI charge related to the month of December, 2006 (Tulsi Prajapati was murdered on 28th December early morning near Ambaji, Rajasthan-Gujarat border):

6.21. On 11.12.2006, an escort party from the Reserve Police Line, Udaipur, headed by Sub-Inspector Shyam Singh accompanied Tulsiram Prajapati and Mohd. Azam for Ahmedabad by train. On this date also, the mother and wife of Mohd. Azam had accompanied them to Ahmedabad. After reaching Ahmedabad on 12.12.2006, both Mohd. Azam and Tulsiram Prajapati were taken to the Sabarmati Jail, Ahmedabad, from there they were produced via video conferencing before the competent Court instead of being physically produced in the Court. The next date of hearing was fixed for 26.12.2006. The escort party while leaving for Udaipur in the night of 12.12.2006 at the Ahmedabad Railway Station made efforts in furtherance of the criminal conspiracy to separate the mother and wife of Mohd. Azam from Tulsiram Prajapati and his co-prisoner Mohd. Azam, but were prevented by the unexpected vociferous and vigorous protest by the mother and wife of Mohd. Azam that resulted in a large gathering of bystanders that deterred the police from succeeding in their objective of isolating Tulsiram Prajapati, a necessary preparatory stage for his murder in a planned fake encounter.

We are also reproducing in here the Call Data Record (CDR) from the CBI chargesheet for the relevant period:

Amit Shah Raj Kumar Pandian CallsAmit Shah Raj Kumar Pandian Calls

The CDR fully establishes the contact between Rajkumar Pandian, the SP of Anti Terrorist Squad and the Home Minister Amit Shah in the murder of Tulsi Prajapati and both of them have been charge-sheeted as the main accused in the case. In fact, Rajkumar Pandian who was the SP of the ATS played a vital role in abduction of Sohrabuddin and Kauserbi and killing them both on 26th and 29th November, 2005 at Ahmedabad. In that case as well, both Amit Shah and Rajkumar Pandian are charged as accused.

As we had the CDRs of the accused officer Rajkumar Pandian, we searched within Pandian’s CDR for Parag Shah’s number after coming to know that he was appointed as the Officer on Special Duty for the Anti-Terrorist Squad. This appointment attains special significance since the Chief Minister’s office had declared their “No Tolerance” policy towards terrorism “and it was Mr Parag Shah as the OSD to CM who was to monitor the functions of ATS and report to the CM”. To our surprise we found a large number of phone calls between Pandian and Parag Shah inter-spaced with phone calls of Amit Shah and Pandian (Call Records reproduced at the bottom of the post). In light of the call records, it becomes abundantly clear that Mr Parag Shah was in constant touch with Rajkumar Pandyan IPS, the man who planned and executed the murder of Tulsiram Prajapati, and in turn Parag Shah was reporting to CM.

This piece of vital information read with the fact that Mr Parag Shah was working as the Officer on Special Duty for Narendra Modi, CM, it becomes obvious as day light that the CM was fully aware of the Tulsi fake encounter which was carried out entirely by the police officers working in Anti-Terrorist-Squad led by DIG Vanzara. In light of this irrefutable evidence, we can now interpret the statement made by D G Vanzara in his resignation letter recently tendered to the Government of Gujarat. His statement reads as under:

We, being field officers, have simply implemented the conscious policy of this government which was inspiring, guiding and monitoring our actions from the very close quarters

Would the CBI now care to explain to the nation why it has failed to investigate Parag Shah’s phone calls when they had the entire CDR with them? Was it to obfuscate the role of Narendra Modi?

 

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Rejoinder to Imtiaz Alam By Brig Asif H. Raja

Rejoinder to Imtiaz Alam

 

ScreenHunter_41 May. 20 09.11

 

 

 

by

 

Asif Haroon Raja

 

 

 

 

Imtiaz Alam is a senior journalist who writes articles and hosts programs on TV channels. He also heads SAFMA, a dubious organization which reportedly is sponsored by RAW. SAFMA in league with Aman ki Asha, another shady organization co-hosted by Jang-Geo Group and Indian media group is also patronized by RAW. 

The two have been working in tandem to improve Indo-Pakistan relations and to promote peace and friendship between the two arch rivals. 

Notwithstanding the apparent noble intentions, in practical terms the duo has always been espousing the cause of India and undermining Pakistan. In a subtle manner a message conveyed that it is futile for Pakistan to stand up against the military might of India, which is five times superior and its economy is shining.

 Alam says India has more than eight times bigger economy in terms of GDP and will become 3rd largest economy in next three decades. Its defence spending is 1.8% of its GDP and defence budget now stands at $50 billion a year. In contrast, Pakistan in his view is out in the cold.

 

The message given by him and his ilk is to accept the ground reality and succumb to India’s demand of accepting its regional hegemony and to forget about Kashmir by accepting the Line of Control (LoC) as a permanent border between the two Kashmirs. Only then will the two can live as peaceful and friendly neighbors and peace will help the two to prosper economically. 

The two groups have all along blamed Pakistan for maintaining an aggressive posture on Kashmir and promoting Jihadi culture in Kashmir by supporting non-state actors to bleed India. Alam says that successive governments of Pakistan have been taking a cyclic course of an arms race with India. He has advised Pakistani leaders to say no to arms race to avoid self-immolation. The two suspicious outfits have gone underground ever since extremist BJP under a terrorist Narendra Modi has gained power in India and embarrassed India’s farce of secularism, which had kept the world fascinated and impressed for a very long time.

 

Imtiaz Alam is a committed Indian fan and being a secular has derided Islamists in Pakistan, dubbing all of them as extremists and terrorists. 

In the past, he always criticised Pak Army and ISI, saying they have been using Jihadis as their strategic assets. He also criticises government’s policies on Kashmir, defence, nuclear, or its dealings with India. His write-ups in newspapers and stance on electronic media testifies his bent of mind.

 In his recent article “When will we say no to the arms race” dated May 19, 2016 in ‘The News’, he has twisted facts of Indo-Pak history to berate Pakistan’s military rulers in particular and to project India in good light.

He contends that Pakistan joined western military blocks to counter balance India but doesn’t highlight the distressing circumstances under which Pakistan was created and the plethora of problems loaded upon newly born state by India to ensure its death in the crib. 

He didn’t mention about India gobbling up 565 princely states including two-thirds Kashmir and the states wanting to join Pakistan, annexation of Sikkim, Diu and Goa after 1947 and its threatening posture against Pakistan which impelled Pakistan to seek security under the umbrella of western pacts.

 

He callously mentions that Pakistan relied upon non-state actors from the beginning and used them in 1948 war in Kashmir. This is travesty of truth.

Going by Partition plan, Kashmir was to become part of Pakistan, but it was annexed by Indian military in October 1947. But for the voluntary dash of tribesmen from FATA, whole of Kashmir would have been seized by India. Pakistan government had no role or control over the tribesmen who had gone there to save the Muslim Kashmiris getting massacred by Dogra Army. 

Ever since Kashmir has become the bone of contention between the two neighbors and the two have gone to war in 1965 and in 1971.

 

Alam contends that Indian military’s drubbing at the hands of Chinese in 1962 conflict encouraged Ayub Khan to launch Operation Gibraltar in August 1965, which then triggered 1965 war. Why he hesitates to write that Ayub Khan didn’t exploit the precarious condition of India in 1962 and went to the extent of proposing joint defence to India against communism?

Why he overlooked the fact that despite series of UN resolutions and Nehru’s pledge to grant right of self-determination to Kashmiris and holding a plebiscite under the auspices of the UN, India didn’t honor. India’s u turn and its expansion and modernization of armed forces with the help of Soviet, western and American military assistance after 1962, which had begun to tilt the military balance in favor of India had impelled Pakistan to launch Operation Gibraltar. Alam didn’t say anything that while Operation Gibraltar was in a disputed territory which was in India’s illegal occupation, India stealthily crossed the international border on 6th September 1965 without declaring war with the aim of destroying Pakistan’s armed forces but failed.

 

While describing the 1971 crisis in erstwhile East Pakistan, Alam brazenly twists historical facts by saying that rather than transferring power to Mujibur Rahman led Awami League that had won the elections, Gen Yahya opted for a military action in March 1971 in East Pakistan with the support of non-state actors Al-Shams and Al-Badr which resulted in over one million civilian casualties. By saying this at a time when Hasina Wajid’s regime is busy hanging aged Jamaat-e-Islami leaders on account of so-called 1971 war crimes, he has further sprinkled salt on the wounds of Islamists in Bangladesh but delighted India and Bangladesh rulers.

 Rather than paying tributes to them, who had fought the rebels along with Pak Army to save the motherland, he declared them as non-state actors (rebels) and ignored brutal Mukti Bahinis.

 

Either he has no clue of history or he has published the dictated script given by his patrons.  Why does he forget that for almost 15 days Gen Yahya and his team sat with Mujib and his team in Dacca and gave in to all his six points and much more and announced him as PM of Pakistan. 

This he did at a time when Mujib had rebelled against the state on 01 March 1971 and his goons had massacred over 1, 50, 000 non-Bengalis and pro-Pakistan Bengalis (Biharis) and raped women with utmost ferocity and barbarity. A state within state had been created and people of East Pakistan (mostly terrorised by Mukti Bahinis) had defied central authority.

 The Indian and western media had remained tight-lipped over their atrocities, (and so is Alam even after learning the whole truth about 1971 conspiracy). When Yahya learnt that Mujib and his henchmen had made up their mind to break away from Pakistan and any solution within the concept of united Pakistan was unacceptable to them, he ordered the military action on the night of 25 March 1971 to save Pakistan from disintegrating. At that time Al-Shams and Al-Badar were not in existence.  

 

The rebellion was suppressed by the lone 14 Infantry Division and by May 1971 order was restored in the entire province and a civilian Bengali governor Malik was installed. Casualties were in few thousands and not a million as claimed by Alam. 

Mujib and his stalwarts after creation of Bangladesh had bloated the figure of casualties to 3 million and rape of 300,000 women. Alam must be agreeing to these bizarre figures. Al-Badr and Al-Shams were created as Razaqars essentially for village defences during the counter insurgency operations and for rear areas security during war because of paucity of troops. Once order was restored, general amnesty was announced for all the Awami League leaders based in India and the refugees but India blocked them. 

All attempts made by Pakistan to find a political settlement were turned down by haughty Indira Gandhi. Indian leaders were smelling blood and they didn’t want to miss a chance of century (as stated by Subramanian). Pakistan internal matter was made into Indian issue. Mukti Bahinis were eulogized and Pak military demonized as human eating monsters and rapists by Indian media as well as western media.

 

 

Alam in his article has put the entire blame on Field Marshal Ayub Khan and Gen Yahya Khan and skipped role of ZA Bhutto and that of Mujib in the 1971 tragedy. Thereafter, in a way he holds a grudge against Bhutto for rebuilding a defeated Army and putting up a confrontationist national security paradigm despite signing Simla agreement. 

He forgets that soon after creating Bangladesh, India embarked upon an ambitious force modernization program with the help of USSR and also carried out nuclear explosion in August 1974. At the same time, Sindh and Baluchistan were given as new targets for subversion to RAW in 1973. We all know that RAW in league with KGB and KHAD had fully supported Baloch insurgency from 1973 to 1978 and had also supported Sindhu Desh movement in Sindh. So what should have Bhutto done and why should he not have laid the foundation of nuclear program when India had expansionist designs and had not reconciled to existence of Pakistan? Kashmir issue was virtually frozen after Simla agreement and flawed policy of bilateralism introduced to bar third party intervention.

 

Alam then picks up his stick against Gen Ziaul Haq accusing him of creating non-state jihadi actors and making Pakistan an undeclared nuclear weapon power. He skips the role of US which in actuality brought in Jihadis from 70 Muslim countries, funded and militarized madrassas and funded the proxy war in Afghanistan. He fails to mention that Zia’s strategy was a 100% success story. 

He also fails to mention that the US abandonment of Afghanistan in haste had led to civil war and Pakistan had to suffer the consequences. Another point which he missed was the Pressler Amendment which became a cause for rise in debts and political instability. Consequently the democratic era failed to pay any heed to ill effects of Afghan imbroglio. So to say that the erstwhile western patrons subjected Pakistan to sanctions in the aftermath of nuclear explosions in 1998 will not be correct. Those were additional sanctions.

 

Rather than condemning India’s nuclear explosions, he sees Pakistan’s response negatively. In his view Pakistan under Nawaz should have pursued Gen Zia’s strategy of nuclear ambiguity rather than putting the bomb in the open shelf. In his view Pakistan’s nuclear response led to nuclear arms race. He intentionally overlooked Zia’s series of proposals to make South Asia Nuclear Free Zone which were out rightly rejected by India. Pakistan didn’t want to sign NPT and CTBT unilaterally when India refused to sign. 

Yet, India was awarded civil nuclear deal by USA in 2008 and then made member of Nuclear Suppliers Group to enable India to give fillip to its weaponized nuclear program. Conversely, Pakistan’s nuclear program became an eyesore for India, Israel and USA and all sorts of objections were raised.  

 

Alam then dwells on India’s future grandiose plans of becoming a big power and a bulwark against China. He rightly highlights that in partnership with USA, India under Maritime security and joint strategic vision for Asia-Pacific, and naval cooperation in Indian Ocean is leaving Pakistan far behind and creating unbridgeable asymmetry on conventional plane. At the same time he adds that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons and war heads are more than India’s stocks and is geared towards becoming the fifth largest nuclear power by 2025. (Stolen from biased western analysts). He then subtly makes a mention of Pakistan’s tactical nukes and their use on its own soil to thwart Indian intrusion, and Pakistan’s preference for first-strike option.

 

After describing the horrors of nuclear war and relating it to Mutually Assured Destruction, Alam belittles concept of deterrence saying it’s a flawed doctrine. He then dwells upon Pakistan’s minimum nuclear deterrence now jumping to full spectrum nuclear deterrence and lists out the types of missiles Pakistan has to counter India’s Cold Start doctrine and continental triad nuclear doctrine. He then delivers the best punch by asserting that in response to Pakistan’s use of non-state actors (strategic assets), Ajit Doval’s passive-aggressive and aggressive doctrine is in full play by co-opting proxies from within and from Afghanistan.

 

One wonders why Alam is shy of making a mention that the main reasons of arms race and nuclearisation of South Asia are unresolved Kashmir issue, India’s intransigence and belligerent attitude. Why doesn’t he say that India has always aspired for Akhand Bharat and wants to become a regional hegemon in South Asia, Indian Ocean including Arabian Sea? He looks the other way to Pakistan’s military strategy which is defensive in nature and its nuclear program which is meant to safeguard its territorial integrity and sovereignty. Pakistan has no territorial claims with any neighbor and has desired peaceful relations with all. India’s military strategy on the other hand is offensive in nature and imperialist in design and has disputes with all its neighbors. India uses proxy war, Chankyan tactics and propaganda as tools to achieve its sinister objectives.

 Since 1989, India is constantly raising its defence budget which now totals $50 billion annually and is feverishly buying sophisticated war machines for the three services of Indian military and testing new range of nuclear tipped missiles to disable Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence.

 

It will be too simplistic and naïve to think that India’s  conventional and nuclear build up is meant to confront China. After the 1962 humiliating defeat, India will never ever try to flex its military muscles against China. More so, Great Himalayas stand as a barrier between the two neighbors which prevent classical invasion by any side.

 Over 70% of India’s strike formations and air bases are deployed against Pakistan. The latter cannot match Indian military superiority which is 5:1, but Pakistan strives to maintain strategic balance of 3:1 and reinforces it with nuclear deterrence. Big powers have always played a role in tilting the military balance in favor of India and currently the US is going out of the way to help its strategic partner India in expanding and upgrading its conventional and nuclear capabilities. 

This process has been going on since 1993. At the same time the US has been objecting to Pakistan’s acquisitions from China and denying its bare minimum defence needs. Blockage of F-16s and close support fund are the recent examples.

 

In the 1980s, Russia helped India to build its navy. Nuclear powered Chakra submarine and Talwar Frigates fitted with nuclear tipped Brahmo missiles were provided by Russia. Now the US in its bid to dominate Indian Ocean is helping Indian Navy to become a blue water navy. India has developed intermediate range K-4 nuclear ballistic missiles which will be fitted on Arihant submarines. K-5 missiles are also being built.

 This will nuclearise Indian Ocean and jeopardise the security of 32 littoral states situated around it. Pakistan will be faced with land based and sea based nuclear and missile threats which will further exacerbate its security. On May 15, India conducted an interceptor missile test of its advanced air defence Ashwin and Israel has provided the technology. These developments have altered the strategic balance and forced Pakistan to counter the newly emerged threat. 

 

Alam is reinforcing Indo-US unjust stance by advising Pakistan not to upgrade its defence capabilities. 

It is utterly unfair on part of Alam to equate Pakistan with India by saying both are indulging in arms race and in nuclearisation of the region.  His claim that Pakistan is solely responsible for making use of non-state actors is untrue. I am sure he must be knowing who created and supported Mukti Bahini and LTTE, and now who is supporting TTP, BLA, BRA, BLF, and MQM.

 

I will advise my friend to go through articles written by Indians, or see Pakistan specific programs aired by Indian TV channels. None has ever advised Indian rulers to cut down defence budget, or to show restraint, or to solve Kashmir issue. Jingoism in India against Pakistan is at its peak and so are covert operations in Balochistan, FATA and Karachi by RAW. Arrested Indian naval officer Kal Bhushan Yadav, working for RAW has spilled the beans and reconfirmed Pakistan’s stated position that RAW is deeply involved in destabilizing Pakistan. 

RAW agents in dozens are being rounded up and the figure has crossed 400. Combing operation is going on in urban centres to demolish all sorts of foreign networks.

 

The writer is defence analyst, columnist, author of five books, Director Measac Research Centre, Director Board of Governors Thinkers Forum [email protected]

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A Hellfire From Heaven Won’t Smash The Taliban

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A Hellfire From Heaven Won’t Smash The Taliban
By Pepe Escobar
 
June 02, 2016 
 
So Taliban supremo Mullah Mansour’s white Toyota Corolla was rattling across the Balochistan desert just after it had crossed the Iranian border when a Hellfire missile fired from a US drone incinerated it into a charred / twisted wreck.
That’s the official narrative. The Pentagon said Mansour was on Obama’s kill list because he had become «an obstacle to peace and reconciliation».
There’s way more to it, of course. Mansour was a savvy businessman who was extensively traveling to Dubai – the Taliban’s historic clearing house where all sorts of dodgy deals are made. He was also in close connection with Jundullah – a.k.a. the hardcore Sunni anti-Tehran militia very much active in Sistan-Balochistan province in Iran.
This time Mansour was in Sistan-Balochistan on a medical visit – allegedly to eschew hospitals in Pakistan heavily monitored by the ISI [Inter-Services Intelligence]. Yet arguably Pakistan intel knew about it – so US intel also may have known about it and thus were able to track him.
But then there’s the real ace in the hole: the New Opium War.
The usual suspects in the Beltway insist that the Taliban profit handsomely from overseeing the opium trade out of Afghanistan –and now operate as a multi-billion-dollar drug cartel. That’s nonsense.
Bets can be made that Mansour’s kill will not reduce Afghanistan’s opium production – which has been steadily on the rise for years now. Mawlawi Hibatullah Akhundzada, Mansour’s former number two, has been designated as the new leader.
The fact is, poppy production in Afghanistan remains at the highest levels in provinces that are – in thesis – controlled by Kabul. More opium was produced last year – also in thesis the last year of NATO’s Enduring Freedom operation – than in any other year since the UN started tracking it way back in 2002. In 2016 Afghanistan will produce more opium – thus heroin – than the entire global consumption.
An inkling of what’s really going on in the New Opium War is provided by a recent book (in Italian) by Enrico Piovesana. He tells of shady military operations conducted by NATO in which massive quantities of opium have been sequestered by helicopter – never to be seen again.
So we’re back to the same old CIA opium rat line, which translates into control of the Afghan opium market in collusion with local police, military high brass in Kabul and the Karzai family, of former President a.k.a. «mayor of Kabul» Hamid Karzai. Doing business with narco traffickers has also handily provided liquidity – as in dirty money – to Western big banks. None of this has anything to do with the Taliban, which actually brought down opium production to near zero in 2001, before 9/11 and the American bombing/occupation of Afghanistan.
Those shadowy Af-Pak players
The first US drone strike ever in Baluchestan (another Obama «first») remains something of a mystery. A credible working hypothesis is that this was a covert US-Pakistani co-op. The hit allegedly came via the Pentagon, not the CIA. Mansour’s Corolla was something like 40 km inside Baluchestan after it had crossed the border – in an area where US drones would have been quite vulnerable to upgraded (in 2011) Pakistani air defenses.
A plausible – but unconfirmed – scenario would see RQ-170 Sentinels tracking Mansour’s Toyota, with the coordinates then fed to Reaper drones flying out of Kandahar airfield. Assuming the drones began tracking the Toyota at the Iran-Pakistan border, they would have been in action over Baluchestan air space for hours on end, undisturbed.
But then there are the incongruities. Pakistani sources mention that the Toyota – as in any real drone hit – was not totally smashed, but was still on its wheels. And a mysterious passport (Mullah Mansour’s) also showed up on the scene, unscathed.
As for the original HUMINT that led to Mansour’s trail, the notion that Washington had scored it stretches credulity. It would be more like a very well placed/rewarded asset somewhere – be it a military in Kabul or a disgruntled ISI operative.
What was Mansour really up to? He was quite savvy in playing for time. He clearly saw through the US «strategy» – which boiled down to encouraging Afghan president Ashraf Ghani to convince Islamabad to get the Taliban to the negotiating table.
Mansour though knew the Taliban could always advance militarily without negotiations; that’s why he duly announced the 2016 spring offensive – an annual Taliban ritual. At the same time he was very careful not to antagonize Islamabad so Taliban safe havens in Pakistan would not be compromised.
As far as what Islamabad is up to, that’s way hazier. Islamabad’s man in the Taliban succession was actually Sirajuddin Haqqani. After the death of his notorious father, Haqqani leads the homonymous network – which is very cozy with the ISI, arguably closer than the traditional Kandahar/Quetta Shura, a.k.a. the historic Afghan Taliban.
The new Taliban supremo will now have a handy window of opportunity to consolidate power. By early 2017 there will be a new US president, a new Pakistani army chief but the same Afghan so-called National Unity Government still disunited. The Taliban know what they want; be part of the government in Kabul, and get their cut in case the fractious Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline will ever be built. The more things change in Afghanistan, the more they hark back to two decades ago, during the second Clinton administration.
Meanwhile, former CIA asset, former pal of Osama bin Laden and still one of the US’s Public Enemies, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, defined by Washington as a «global terrorist» and the leader of the Hezbi Islami organization, is about to close a deal with Kabul.
Hezbi Islami is the second largest «insurgency» in Afghanistan. Most of the top brass have defected to the Taliban. Hekmatyar lives in exile somewhere in Pakistan; the ISI, of course, knows all about it. So if Ghani in Kabul can’t bag the Taliban, at least he bags a currently much smaller fish, Hekmatyar. Does it help? Not really. It will fall eventually to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) – as in Russia-China joint leadership – to solve the Taliban riddle. Certainly not to Operation Enduring Freedom Forever – no matter the size of their kill list
 
 
 

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