Opinion

BAD NEWS

Owen Bennett-Jones

The titles of books by leading Pakistanis – never mind the content – make for rather depressing reading. All the way from ‘Tales of a Sorry Dominion’ through ‘A Dream Gone Sour’ and ‘A Journey to Disillusionment’ via ‘Pakistan on the Brink’ and arriving at ‘The Most Dangerous Place’, it would seem that many Pakistani writers take a rather dim view of their county’s national development.

If that’s not enough, just take a look at those self-flagellating articles written to mark any Jinnah anniversary. Each year even the most patriotic and enthusiastic Pakistani writers come out with their hardy annual: a long list of national faults that, they point out, Jinnah would have been shocked by.

Needless to say, no serving state official would publish this kind of material whilst in post. Of course, it’s not only in Pakistan that those who are taking a government salary feel honour bound to paint their country in the most glowing light – especially in the company of foreigners. But it is a counterproductive approach. Saying something is fine does not make it so. In fact failing to face up to problems can make things even worse.

Remember Deng Xiaoping’s most important maxim when he was trying to reform China: ‘seek truth from facts’. Obvious enough, but the consequences can be profound.

In the UK this year there have been a number of discussions and seminars about Pakistan in leading British academic institutions. And even if such events tend to raise the profile of difficult issues – in fact perhaps because of that – they should be welcomed. The US may matter to Islamabad much more than London but because of the Pakistani diaspora and because of the significant aid that the UK gives Pakistan (even if much of it is wasted) any engagement of UK opinion formers with Pakistan is a good thing.

But there is a tendency at such events for speakers with Pakistan government connections – even pretty tenuous ones – to give the impression that everything is going fine. It leaves many of the Brits and other foreigners present somewhat confused. ‘Isn’t Pakistan in the middle of a civil war?’ they wonder, as they hear the repeated claim that it’s the journalists who exaggerate the problems by dwelling on the bad news.

The sort of positive remarks that official Pakistanis put forward include the claims that: Modi won’t be too bad; India needs Pakistan (for energy supplies); anti-Shia violence has a long history and is not especially new; the TTP is supported by only a minority of Pakistanis and its importance is often exaggerated; most Fata residents are loyal to Pakistan and the new, most favourite piece of good news rolled out at such events, not withstanding Geo’s situation, that there is now a vibrant and independent media holding everyone to account.

Of course, there is another way of looking at all of these issues. After all, the election of a hard-line Hindu nationalist to power in India is, on the face of it, bad news for Pakistan. Yes, hard-line leaders can be the ones best placed to deliver concessions but more often than not hard-line leaders remain hard line and have no desire to make concessions. So it may well be with Modi.

Asked during the recent campaign whether Modi wanted peace with Pakistan, one of his closest advisers answered with another question: “What kind of peace?”

What he meant was that the BJP is happy enough to leave things as they are for the moment. The status quo is, after all, peace of a sort. But since there is no realistic expectation of Pakistan meeting basic Indian demands such as arresting the religious leaders and state officials involved in the Mumbai attack, the ‘reset’ of the Indo-Pak relationship that many Pakistani military officers and diplomats speak of simply will not happen.

No doubt Modi is so popular he could deliver all sorts of concessions. But why would he? What reason does anyone have to believe that he will want to reach out to Pakistan when his whole political history suggests he will do no such thing?

Not only that, but should there be a Pakistani provocation – for example a spectacular attack of some sort – then Modi can only be expected to respond with strength. The BJP leader would welcome the chance to flex his muscles on a nationalist issue and would not hesitate to do so.

Many of the other attempts to put a positive gloss on Pakistan also fail to stand up to much scrutiny. Yes, anti-Shia violence does have a long history but it’s getting worse right now. Sure, most Pakistanis don’t support the Taliban but its surely more salient to note that a troubling number do and the organisation has been strong enough to kill tens of thousands of people. Many Fata residents are indeed loyal to Pakistani but the problem is that some are not. And they are the ones causing difficulties,

As for that vibrant media it would perhaps be more useful at the moment not to be celebrating press freedom but rather defending it. We are all witness after all to a bare-knuckle fight between the media and those who want to control what it says.

So yes, you can put on those rose-tinted spectacles and hope everything works out fine. But while hoping for the best it’s maybe wise to prepare for the worst. That way you can’t be taken by surprise.

The writer is a freelance British journalist and one of the hosts of BBC’s Newshour. 

Twitter: @OwenBennettJone

Email: [email protected] Tuesday, June 24, 2014