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India witnessed a peak power shortage of 9 per cent during the five years ending 2012 when over 50,000 MW new generation capacity was created, the Economic Survey said today.
“During the 11th Five Year Plan (2007—12), nearly 55,000 MW of new generation capacity was created. Yet, there continues to be a peak shortage of 9 per cent,” it said.
Peak power shortage is shortfall in generation capacity when electricity consumption is maximum.
The survey said the resources currently allocated to energy supply are not sufficient for narrowing the gap between energy needs and energy availability.
One of the key challenges remain resolving the energy bottlenecks. Further, the country’s excessive reliance on imported crude oil make it imperative to have an optimal energy mix that will allow it to achieve its long—run goal of sustainable development.
As on March 2011, the country’s estimated coal reserves were at about 286 billion tonnes, lignite at 81 billion tonnes, crude oil at 757 million tonnes and natural gas 1,241 billion cubic metre (BCM).
Electricity generation by power utilities during 2012—13 was targeted to go up by 6.05 per cent to 930 billion units.
The growth in power generation during April to December, 2012 was 4.55 per cent as compared to about 9.33 per cent during April—December, 2011.
The estimated hydro potential is about 1,45,000 MW. The total potential for renewable power generation from various sources other than large hydro projects stood at 89,760 MW.
Import dependence on crude oil is projected at 78 per cent while that in coal will be 22.4 per cent by 2016—17, Survey said.
An integrated power transmission grid helps to even out supply—demand mis—matches. The existing inter—regional transmission capacity of 27,750 MW connects the northern, western, eastern and north—easterns in a synchronous mode operating at the same frequency and southern region asynchronously operating in the same mode.
Synchronous inter—connection of the southern region with other regions is expected to be established by April, 2014.
Meanwhile, trading in electricity is enabled through traders and power exchanges that optimises generation resources by facilitating trade and flow of electricity across the country.
It has helped in sale of surplus power by distribution utilities and captive power plants on one hand, and purchase of electricity by deficit firms on the other hand to meet sudden increases in demand, it said.
The capacity addition during the 12th plan period (2012—17) is estimated at 88,537 MW comprising 26,182 MW in the central sector, 15,530 MW in the state sector and 46,825 MW in the private sector respectively.
The capacity addition target for the year 2012—13 was set at 17,956 MW. A capacity of 9,854 MW has been added till December 2012.
Upright Opinion
August 9, 2013
Dealing with India
By Saeed Qureshi
According to the Times of India’s report dated July 15, a member of a Special Investigating Team (SIT) of India’s Central Bureau of Investigation had accused incumbent Indian governments of “orchestrating” the terror attack on Indian Parliament on 13 December 2001 and the 2008 Mumbai attack carried out on 26 November 2008.
There is no apparent reason to discard this bombshell information disclosed by an Indian secret service operative. Ostensibly the atrocious aim behind these sinister plots was to project Pakistan as a terrorism sponsoring state and thus antagonize the international community against it.
India had been maliciously harping upon the bogey that the parliament building and Mumbai attacks carried out by the disparate militant groups and Ajmal Kasab band respectively, were sponsored by Pakistan and her intelligence outfits.
This was not for the first time that India had blamed the Pakistan based radical Islamic organizations for Mumbai calamity. Earlier, the Kashmiris freedom fighters were held responsible for the storming the Parliament building in New Delhi in December 2001. Some other similar attacks were also attributed to the Kashmir militants.
While India bracketed Pakistan government and its intelligence agencies as the accomplices in these activities with the militants, it conveniently forgets that Pakistan has also suffered enormously at the hands of these brutal radicals who treat India and Pakistan at par. They carry out suicide bombing and murderous ambushes to punish Pakistan for its partnership with United States in hunting down the perpetrators of the 9/11 mayhem.
In the aftermath of the parliament building episode, India demanded the unacceptable option of carrying out punitive air strikes on the chosen targets in Pakistan. For a neighbor to ask for such an unusual permission from the United Nations is as weird as it is lethal to the territorial integrity of a sovereign country. There seemed to be more than meets the eye in the Indian call for attacking the militants’ targets within Pakistan.
One would wonder if the Mumbai bloody melodrama was deliberately enacted to achieve the concealed yet coveted objective of having a walk over the territory of Pakistan and Kashmir and to glibly and indiscriminately bomb any place anywhere. In peace times, this untenable demand was made by India against such a neighbor that has gone a long way to normalize bilateral relations in all avenues with her.
At the behest of India, had Pakistan been subjected to the UN sanctions, then obviously India would have been free to also curb and crush with full might, the Kashmiris’ uprising against the Indian occupation, now apace for six decades. In that situation Pakistan would be severely constrained to use its army in support of Kashmiris and also to defend its territory from the Indian onslaughts. There couldn’t be better time for India to achieve this agenda as a time, when Pakistan army is bogged down for several years on the Western front and India has become a strategic partner with the United States.
Pakistan has already been under enormous burgeoning pressure from United States for using its armed forces to annihilate the radical Islamic militants in the regions starting from Afghanistan to the extreme periphery of Kashmir.
In the aftermath of these incidents, the call from India to go for the monstrous reprisal in the form of military aerial forays against Pakistan would have been a grievous folly entailing horrific consequences for the region. If India wanted to exploit the Mumbai attacks to squeeze Pakistan and to label it as a terrorism sponsor, then it is as brazen as malicious. But now that charade has exploded on the face of India when her own secret agents are spilling the beans and when as the proverb goes, “the cat is out of the bag”
India wants the same leverage and queer rights that Israel is exercising against the Palestinians, in that she kills, at will, the vulnerable Palestinians indiscriminately. But is Pakistan what Palestine is?
Pakistan is a sovereign state in existence and a member of the United Nations. The state of Palestine is yet to appear and take a physical shape. The kind of rift between Israel and Palestine is anchored on legitimate demand for the statehood of an uprooted people. India and Pakistan are already two independent states resulting from the partition of India via an established international covenant. The incident of Mumbai is no parallel to the deep rooted and historical conflict between Israel and the Palestinian nation.
The 9/11 event is also no match to the Mumbai incident. The 9/11 event is a mega sized act of terrorism and the Mumbai is a much smaller local event. The United States has not been able to conclusively establish the identities of the 9/11 perpetrators. Similarly the Indian government had been far from being candid and unambiguous about the individuals or backdoor abettors actually responsible for the Mumbai carnage or attack on the parliament
But the whole context and narrative of the Indian blame game against Pakistan turns upside down after the submission of the statement by the Indian secret service operative in the Indian Supreme Court. It is for the international community to understand the Indian diabolic designs for staging such clandestine vicious operations and then putting blame on Pakistan.
An objective assessment would lead a dispassionate observer to the conclusion that no matter how much Pakistan stoops low before the Indian conditionalities for peaceful coexistence, India would not relent in asking for more. The reason is that Pakistan has always been a thorn in the side of India. India displayed its historic animus towards Pakistan by dismembering the latter in 1971.
There cannot be a more sublime cause than to go down fighting for safeguarding the national honor and territorial integrity. But if Pakistan surrenders hands down, history will judge Pakistani leaders as spineless betrayers to a country and a nation that was carved out with a dogged spirit for freedom despite a combined opposition and treachery from Indians and the British imperialists.
Let Pakistan fight on all fronts and fight to the last. To procure peace by becoming a protégé and a client state of India is ignominious and must be discarded. It’s time to talk plainly also to the Americans to not drag us too much in a quagmire that would ultimately devour us as a united country. However if genuine desire on the part of India for making durable peace with Pakistan is discernible then there may be no harm in giving such an effort yet another trial.
The writer is a senior journalist, former editor of Diplomatic Times and a former diplomat
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Posted by ali rehan munir in INDIA STATE SPONSORED TERRORISM IN PAKISTAN on July 19th, 2013
(Editor’s note: This piece was originally published on 29 April following the attack onSarabjit Singh in the Kot Lakhpat jail)
Last summer, an ageing Sikh man with the full grey beard of the pious came across the Wagah border, at the end of thirty years and six months in a maximum-security Pakistani prison. In December 1981, Surjeet Singh had left his home in the village of Fidda, telling his wife he’d soon be back. In photographs taken not long before then, Singh had a neatly-trimmed moustache, a smart tie, a well-fitted jacket – and the intense look of young men with energy and ambition. He came home to a country that chooses, even today, not to recognise him.
“I had gone to spy,” Singh told journalists gathered to document his return—shocking many. They shouldn’t have been.
Now, as Indians watch Kot Lakhpat prisoner Sarabjit Singh’s battle for survival following a lethal jail-house attack, it is more important than ever for us to understand how dozens of men like him ended up in jail in the first place.
It is hard to be certain whether Sarabjit Singh is, as Pakistani courts have found, an Indian secret agent responsible for terrorist bombings which claimed 14 lives—or, as his family and advocates insist, a victim of mistaken identity. We do, however, know this: Sarabjit Singh’s story is linked to the untold, and mostly unknown, story of India’s secret war with Pakistan.
“The water,” Pakistan’s military ruler General Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq told his spymaster, General Akhtar Malik, in December 1979, “must boil at the right temperature.” Even as General Malik’s proxy armies of jihadists battled the Soviet Union in Afghanistan, Pakistan feared pushing the superpower to the point where it might retaliate. Key to Pakistan’s fears was India. Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, General Zia believed, might be pushed by the Soviet Union into unleashing a war on its behalf. His chosen counter-strategy was to try to tie down India in a bruising internal conflict in Punjab.
From the early 1980s, Khalistan terrorists(FREEDOM FIGHTERS) began receiving weapons and arms from the Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate, sparking off a war that would claim over 20,000 lives before it was done.
Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi ordered retaliation. The Research and Analysis Wing set up two covert groups, known only as Counter Intelligence Team-X and Counter Intelligence Team-J, the first targeting Pakistan in general and the second directed in particular at Khalistani groups. Each Khalistan terror attack targeting India’s cities was met with retaliatory attacks in Lahore, Multan and Karachi through CIT-X. “The role of our covert action capability in putting an end to the ISI’s interference in Punjab,” the former RAW officer B Raman wrote in 2002, “by making such interference prohibitively costly is little known”.
Men like Surjeet Singh were the soldiers in this secret war. For decades, both India and Pakistan had relied on trans-border operators to spy on each other’s militaries. There were some who agreed to do so in return for the right to smuggle alcohol, gold, electronics and heroin. There were others, too, who volunteered, driven by patriotism. Some of the men received training in the tradecraft of the secret agent—avoiding detection; building cover-identities; secret writing using aspirin tablets dissolved in alcohol, to be mailed to RAW outposts in Iran; more lethal skills, like building bombs.
“I did 85 trips to Pakistan,” Surjeet Singh told the BBC’s Geeta Pandey. “I would visit Pakistan and bring back documents for the army. I always returned the next day. I had never had any trouble.” His last trip ended as a spies’ career often does—with betrayal. Singh was sentenced to death, but in 1985 his sentence was commuted to life imprisonment.
For reasons that are still unclear, CIT-X and CIT-J were shut down by Prime Minister IK Gujral in 1997. Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao is believed to have earlier terminated RAW’s eastern operations as part of his efforts to build bridges with China and Myanmar.
The secret soldiers were, mostly, forgotten. “I felt like a used napkin,” said Karamat Rohi, who says he served RAW until his arrest inside Pakistan in 1988, where he remained imprisoned, disowned by India, until 2005. “I felt I was doing a great service to the nation. I did not expect some great reward, but being abandoned is humiliating.”
Stories like these are common. Gurdaspur resident Gopal Dass was sent home after spending 27 years in a Pakistani jail. In 2011, the Supreme Court shot down Dass’ claim for compensation from the government. The court said Dass had no evidence he ever worked for RAW—though a field court martial at Sialkot Cantonment in Pakistan awarded him a life sentence on 27 December 1986.
India’s less-than-enthusiastic covert warfare efforts were, perhaps, shaped by circumstance. In 1947, as imperial Britain left India, its covert services were stripped bare. The senior-most British Indian Police officer in the Intelligence Bureau, Qurban Ali Khan, chose Pakistani citizenship—and left for his new homeland with what few sensitive files departing British officials neglected to destroy. The Intelligence Bureau, Lieutenant-General LP Singh has recorded, was reduced to a “tragi-comic state of helplessness,” possessing nothing but “empty racks and cupboards”.
The Military Intelligence Directorate in New Delhi didn’t even have a map of Jammu and Kashmir to make sense of the first radio intercepts signalling the beginning of the war of 1947-1948.
For Pakistan, covert warfare was a tool of survival: faced with a larger and infinitely better-resourced neighbour, it knew it could not compete in conventional military terms. Khan is credited with early doctrinal efforts on Pakistan’s behalf, positing that covert warfare could open up crippling ethnic-religious faultlines in India.
Thus, Pakistan initiated covert warfare in Jammu and Kashmir soon after its failed military effort in 1947-48, backing groups that bombed government buildings and bridges. From the 1960s, it backed a succession of proto-jihadist networks. Major-General Akbar Khan, who commanded the Pakistani forces during that first India-Pakistan war, has also recorded in his memoirs that his country’s covert forces supplied weapons to Islamist irregulars in Hyderabad. Pakistan’s covert services operated similarly in the east, training Naga groups in the Chittagong Hill tracts.
India’s covert capabilities also began to develop significantly in the wake of the 1962 war with China. Aided by the United States, the newly-founded RAW developed sophisticated signals intelligence and photo-reconnaissance capabilities. Central Intelligence Agency instructors also trained Establishment 22, a covert organisation raised from among Tibetan refugees in India, to execute deep-penetration terror operations in China. Establishment 22, operating under the command of Major-General Surjit Singh Uban, carried out deep-penetration strikes against Pakistani forces under the RAW umbrella prior to the onset of the war.
Following the war, RAW’s attentions now turned elsewhere. Establishment 22 personnel played a key role in Sikkim’s accession to the Union of India; helped train Tamil terrorists operating against Sri Lanka; provided military assistance to groups hostile to the pro-China regime in Myanmar, such as the Kachin Independence Army. Pakistan, it seemed to some, had been taught a lesson in 1971—and was no longer a threat to India.
Time hasn’t proved that assumption well-founded—reopening debate on whether Prime Minister Gujral’s decision to shut down the covert war needs to be reviewed. Secure behind its nuclear umbrella, Pakistan has pursued covert war whenever it has deemed it in its best interests. Fearful of the potentially awful consequences of all-out war, Delhi has chosen to weather out the crisis rather than retaliate. India’s political leadership believes aggressive covert means of the kind unleashed in the 1980s would only escalate the spiral of violence.
In the wake of the Kargil war, key intelligence officers including a former Intelligence Bureau director, attempted to persuade Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee to issue the necessary authorisations for renewed offensive covert operations against Pakistan. “Vajpayee didn’t say a word,” recalls one official present at the meeting. “He didn’t say no; he didn’t say yes.”
Following the carnage of 26/11, some in India’s intelligence establishment again pushed to develop the resources needed to target jihadist leaders in Pakistan. The project, intelligence sources say, was also denied clearance.
Ever since 1987, governments have used secret channels to try to temper the intensity of the covert war. Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi despatched RAW chief AK Verma to meet with his counterpart, Lieutenant-General Hamid Gul, through then-Jordanian Crown Prince Hasan bin-Talal. Little came of this effort. Later, RAW chief CD Sahay and ISI chief Lieutenant-General Ehsan-ul-Haq discussed cross-border infiltration in Jammu and Kashmir, as part of a ceasefire deal on the Line of Control.
Each time, little tangible has emerged: there’s no evidence Pakistan wishes to give up the covert tools in its arsenal, any more than it is willing to give up its nuclear weapons.
Likelier than not, then, the covert war will continue. In the meanwhile, the men who fought in the 1980s have become unwelcome reminders of an embarrassing past that India no longer wishes to acknowledges.
George Orwell never said, frequent attribution notwithstanding, that “we sleep soundly in our beds because rough men stand ready in the night to visit violence on those who would do us harm.”
The fact that he didn’t say it, though, doesn’t mean the statement is wrong.
India owes its secret soldiers a debt—and Sarabjit Singh’s battle for his life is as good a time as any for us to begin to acknowledge it.