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Archive for category The Great Game

Mr.Trump Don’t Miscalculate: US dangerous game with Pakistan: Safe heavens stunt as Weapons of Mass Destruction – Times of Islamabad

-OpEd: US dangerous game with Pakistan: Safe heavens stunt as Weapons of Mass Destruction

Trump Don’t Miscalculate

Trump is dragging the US military, already pretty thinly spread, to enter nuclear armed and China’s ally Pakistan. It can trigger Third World War . Two hundred million Pakistanis will fight to the last man.Vietnam and Gulf War would look like boy scouts jamboree.. And India will be nuclear toast, if it attacks Pakistan from Afghanistan. India’s nuclear weapons are unreliable.

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-OpEd: US dangerous game with Pakistan: Safe heavens stunt as Weapons of Mass Destruction

The US is finding the war in Afghanistan a little too hot for its liking and why not; it was a war that remained in search of strategy and failed to find it. It’s not that I wish to gloat, nor that I want to say ‘I told you so’, but that one is forced to respond when confronted with accusations that the US failed in Afghanistan on account of Pakistan.

  • That we were a tricky two-faced partner. Since I was closely associated with this conflict for a number of years and since I am aware of the things that happened, it is only right that people such as me must speak for Pakistan just as we fought for Pakistan.
  • That a hundred and fifty thousand NATO troops have been overwhelmed by the imagined hoards that Pakistan sent across the border, challenges my professional understanding of the situation.
  • That this is the same border that neither Afghanistan recognises and resists its management or fencing, of course, cannot have escaped US attention.
  • That Pakistan has seven times the number of posts than Afghanistan and the US combined does not seem to make any headway.
  • That Afghan communication systems are functioning despite Pakistan’s repeated requests that they be shut down while Pakistani SIMs are down and out is another moot point.
  • That three Generals of the US Army promised additional border deployment with a US brigade across the North Waziristan Border remains a promise unfulfilled and forgotten.
  • That the US unilaterally up-staked and left Nuristan and the Kunar Valley, one of the most dangerous areas on the border, creating a vacuum is a question that only they can answer.
  • That Pakistani dissidents were given safe havens in this vacuum and encouraged to attack Pakistan is for all to see and take note of.
  • That the MOAB (Mother of all Bombs) accounted for 14 Indians from Kerala amongst the causalities was never a surprise for us.
  • That India is permitted to have so many conciliates along the Border, and none are processing visas is an obvious aberration.
  • That Pakistan suffered horrendous terrorist attacks from Afghanistan through these bands of militants organised and facilitated in Kunar is a no brainer.

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“Confronting Assad’s regime in Syria: Role of United States and Russia” By   Sherry Sharyl

“Confronting Assad’s regime in Syria: Role of United States and Russia”

 

By

Sherry Sharyl

 

 

 

 

Middle East has always remained the center of the world politics since World War II, end of
which created the UNO and in 1948 the State of Israel. After the birth of Israel, Middle East
became the battle zone where israel’s hegemony was to be promoted in order to bring major

militarily armed states of Middle East to a position where major powers of the world could
indoctrinate their own political and economic agendas in the region. Before that, this region
was famous for its natural resources and oil reserves and its Mediterranean trade route. Above
all, Israel and Palestine conflict, then the Israel’s traditional wars with its neighboring states
had become the persistent tension in the Middle East.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recent developments in the region during previous years have depicted a different picture of
conflicts in the oil rich region. Since 2011, the civil war in Syria in order to confront Assad’s
regime has badly affected the security situation in the Middle East. Before the civil war,
Syrian people complained about the bad governance, raised unemployment, illiteracy,
corruption, poverty, lack of political freedom, under the Assad’s presidency. Then the Arab
spring in Tunisia, in 2011 has further added fuel to the fire, the syrian pro-democratic
demonstrator erupted the city of Deraa demanding the President’s Assad’s resignation. The
Assad’s government acted aggressively and crush the protestors by the use of deadly force.
Unfortunately, this anti-government protest spreads nationwide, thus resulting in never
ending civil war in Syria. This civil war has made easier for the world and regional powers
i.e, Russia, United States, Iran, Saudia Arabia and Turkey to interfere into the political
impasse in Syria by acting in support of (Russia and Iran) or by taking harsh steps (USA and
Saudi Arabia) against Assad’s regime not for the conflict resolution but for their own
interests. The logistical, financial and political support and interference of the external
powers for and against the Assad’s regime, has further fueled the sectarian conflicts,
terrorism, Rebellion movements and extremism. Thus, the civil war in Syria than turned into
proxy battleground because of the involvement of the world and regional powers.
Now the Assad’s regime has become the victim of the world’s major powers, thus it has
initiated a new cold war which is unlikely to get a promising end. The Syrian proxy war has
again results in the formation of two blocks along with their allied states, i.e, Russia( China,
Iran and Afghanistan) US ( Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey and Israel).

 

 

 

 

 

Syria is strategically and economically important to both US and Russia in the Middle East.
Russia along with China has increased its political, economic and military support to the
Assad’s regime. The primary goal of Russia is to protect and support the Assad’s regime
against the international intervention, Russia wants to counter the United States influence in
the Middle East and Russia has the vast economic interests in Syria. Syria is one of the
largest importers of military equipments, about 4 billlion dollars of arms contracts have been
signed between Syria and Russia. Besides military equipments, Russian oil and gas
companies has been invested in Syria. Soiuzneftegaz and Tatneft have been extracting oil and
gas in Syria since 2003, Stroitransgaz has built extensive natural gas pipeline and processing
plants. Currently it is constructing a second plant near the city of Rakka which will process,

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

approximatly 1.3 billion cubic meters of gas. Russian companies are also constructing nuclear
power plant for the production of energy. Manufacturing companies of Russia i.e, Uralmash
which provides drilling equipment to the pertroleum company of Syria, Tupolev and
Aviastar-SP has provided passenger airplanes to the Syrian Air lines. Beside economic
interest, strategic interests of Russia in this region are of great importance. For this, the only
Tartus naval base of Russia in Syria is left, but it’s not a true military base because it is not
hosted permanently by the Russian army, its only purpose is to repair and resupply the ships to
the Mediterranean. Therefore, Russian government and the Russian exporters fear that the
regime change in Syria will lead to the loss of contracts and as well as economy and will
weaken the Russian influence in Syria, as well as in the Middle East.
The United States interest in Syria is quite different; it’s strategic rather than economic. The
main interest of United States is to counter the terrorism and the mushroom growth of
terrorist organizations within Syria and in the Middle East. US main aim is to counter ISIS
(Islamic State in Iraq and Syria). US with the help of its Kurdish Allies is countering ISIS.
Al-Qaeda have been sending its militants to the Syria to support the Assad’s regime.
Strategically, the civil war in Syria will have enormous impacts for the region and for the US.
Syrian alliance with Iran can brought major changes in the policies of Saudi Arabia and
Israel. Iran proliferate arms and other goods to fuel the militant organizations in Syria i.e,
Hamas in Gaza strip and Hezbollah in Lebanon and its allies. Beside this, Tehran keeps on
supporting Assad regime politically and militarily. The Russian influence in Syria goes all the
way back to cold war. Most importantly, US wants to protect its bosom friend Israel from
Iran’s and terrorist threats. Therefore, Iran, terrorism and Russia are the brutal and intractable
enemies of the US in the Middle East.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Therefore, the responsibility of war crime and crime against humanity must be held
accountable in Syria. The brutal chemical attacks, casualties of the innocent civilians,
violation of International humanitarian law by ISIS and other terrorist organizations, must be
punished. The use of Chemical weapons, by Assad against rebels and other civilians, must be
punished for their brutal act. By these unhumantarian acts, it has been concluded that Assad’s
regime in Syria is a threat to Syrian citizens as well as development in Syria. Both the cold
war rivals and their allied states should try to settle conflicts in Syria and help

 

Reference for Graphics & Maps

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SURVIVALS OF AUGUST 17 CRASH !

SURVIVALS OF AUGUST 17 CRASH !

By

Col. Riaz Jafri (Retd)

 

Strange are the ways of Allah and Allah be praised.  While a galaxy of the Pakistan army senior officers died in a mysterious C-130 Hercules plane crash on 17 August 1988 at Bahawalpur that included President  Zia ul Haq,  the Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee General Akhtar Abdur Rehman and the United States Ambassador to Pakistan, Arnold Lewis Raphel,  the following escaped the ultimate through the sheer pull of their luck :

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1.                 Lt Col. Arshad Hussain, AMC, (Retired as Maj Gen) –  personal physician of the President. He was at Chaklala airport with his usual Emergent & Life Saving medicine chest ready to board the C-130, when he was spotted by the President and told, “Hey Doc, what are you doing here? Go back, I shall be back by the evening.”  The Doc saluted and left, little knowing his life was saved and that he had saluted the President for the last time in his life!

 

2.                 Brig. Muhammad Younas Khan – MS (Military Secretary) to the President.  An essential Staff Officer who normally accompanies the President wherever he goes, was told by the president himself to stay back and perform certain other tasks by the time he returns. 

 

3.                 Gen. K. M. Arif, who had been by then promoted to 4 star General and appointed as the COS (Chief of Staff)  in the president’s secretariat while Gen. Aslam Baig Mirza had been appointed as the VCOAS in his place.  Well – well — something unbelievable happened in the annals of the military Staff Duties.  General Rafaqat – the PSO (Principal Staff Officer) to the President was in the President’s office and heard him talking to  the U.S. Ambassador Raphel  on the phone. The president was asking the ambassador to accompany him to Bahawalpur to witness the field trials of the American M-61 Tank there that Pakistan was evaluating to purchase.  As an added emphasis Zia told Raphel that Arif would also be there who had recently watched the tank’s maneuvers in the States on a visit there.  Gen. Rafaqat, while finalizing ! the list and tying up the details of all those who were to go to Bahawalpur, informed all except Gen Arif, whom he took it for granted that the President had already asked him to be there.  But in fact and to the good luck of Gen. Arif the President had not, and so he was not there on the fateful day.

 

4.                  Lt Gen. Rehm Dil Bhatti – IGTE (inspector General Training and Evaluation).  After the demonstration he was sitting in the fateful  C-130 waiting for the President to board, who was at the tarmac being seen off by many including Lt Gen. Mian Afzaal the then CGS (Chief of the General Staff). Gen Zia was discussing something important with the CGS so he asked him to accompany him to Pindi to continue the discussion in the plane.  Gen Mian Afzaal, who was to go to Multan to attend some function there, on entering the plane saw Gen R D Bhatti and asked him to go to Multan in his stead.  Little did Gen Bhatti or Gen Afzaal know that they were not only interchanging their destinations but their eternal destinies.

 

On the other hand a haughty Major General  (No names please) was informed by his Captain ADC that as there were many other senior generals attending the function at Multan there was no VIP No. 1 Room available for him  and that he had been booked in a VIP No.2  Room of a mess there.  The haughty general asked the ADC to cancel his visit to Multan and boarded the ill fated

C-130 to return to Pindi and thus became a ‘martyr’ to his ego.  

 

Jissay Allah Rakhey usy kon chhakhy aur jis ki ani hoay usy kon taley???

 

 

Col. Riaz Jafri (Retd)
30 Westridge 1
Rawalpindi 46000
Pakistan
Tel: (051) 5158033
E.mail: jafri@rifiela.com

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The Other Miracle. by Saeed Akhtar Malik

The Other Miracle.

by

Saeed Akhtar Malik

Towards the end of Zardari’s tenure unimpeded plunder and misrule, PML-N, under the criminal guidance of its grand master, was sharpening its claws to have another dig at a Pakistan, which, as a result of Zardari’s remorseless depredations, was already becoming a carcass.
Nawaz Sharif, the top contender for the title of the greatest crook of a benighted and unfortunate land, in a keen tussle with Zardari, was running for PM a third time. The infamous “Charter of Democracy” signed between these two mega crooks, brought them on the same side, as they planned and executed the rape of their country.
The constitution was suitably amended to facilitate their hold on power, to give them immunity from accountability, and to reduce Pakistan to a confederation. The mutual give and take between Zardari and Nawaz Sharif which led to the mangling of the constitution, also allowed Nawaz Sharif to have a third crack at the fortunes of Pakistan.
 
Pakistan was used to being robbed in multifarious ways. The most usual of these was skimming off huge “commissions” and crafting of SROs, some of which had a life of no more than a day–opening the customs duty door for a single caper in the morning and closing it before nightfall. To this Zardari added his own innovations, like plain highway robbery and putting a huge premium on meetings with him, sought by rich businessmen wanting to become even richer, where time was allotted on a “per minute basis”, where each minute cost the supplicant, quite literally, lakhs of rupees.
But by the time a salivating Nawaz Sharif was due for his third stint at the helm, the conventional theft had lost its charm and thrill. To get one up on Zardari he wanted to do something spectacular. He wanted to pull off a caper which was not a simple spot job, but a linear caper which would keep on giving for at least a decade and a half.
For this, plans for an LNG deal with Qatar were ironed out. First, his own man was to be posted as ambassador to Qatar. Then Saif ur Rehman was made ambassador extraordinaire to bring his business expertise to craft the deal. Then a Pakistani businessman, who could be totally trusted, was brought in. And then, after he won the elections and became P.M for the third time, he appointed a minister in his cabinet to coordinate the massive theft, which was to be his first gift to his country kicking off his third innings of plunder.
The highlights of this deal were:
-LNG would be bought from Qatar at highly inflated prices at a time when gas prices were falling.
-This agreement would tie Pakistan to keep buying gas from Qatar at these inflated prices for the next 15 years.
-A terminal was to be built at Karachi for this LNG. The price of this terminal was U.S.D 30 million, but which was enhanced to between 120-130 million dollars.
-A clause was later added to the agreement, which stipulated that for each day that this terminal was not in use, Pakistan would pay charges of US $272,000—I am informed that for the last 45 days the terminal has not been in use. The readers may calculate what Pakistan has had to pay out!
But the most brilliant clause of this agreement with Qatar is that this agreement will remain “secret”. The reason given for this secrecy is that if the stipulations of the agreement became known, these would be a cause of embarrassment to a “brotherly Muslim country!”
So how was money to be made in this deal? This should be obvious. The difference between the real gas price and the inflated one will go to a Swiss bank account. The ninety or so million dollars “saved” in the cost of the terminal will go to the same account. And lastly, the “earning” of

$272,000 per day when this terminal was idle, would also go to the same account. And the first and last of these expenses to go to this account will keep doing so for the next FIFTEEN YEARS….burn your heart out Mr. Asif Ali Zardari because you’ve been had!
The man who coordinated, crafted, and executed this deal, is none other than Mr. Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, the Prime Minister we have just sworn in to sit on the seat vacated by ex Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who has just been kicked out for corruption!

Could there really be a greater miracle than this?

But the attendant question is, how does a poor country like ours pay for a deal like this? The answer is very simple. We get loans from IMF. These loans pay for scams like this one. So this is a “circular ” debt. Our leaders do the thieving; to pay for such thefts loans are taken from IMF; and the people of Pakistan are then to pay off such debts to IMF for the next hundred years, while Pakistan loses its sovereignty. Simple.
It is my contention that if the total volume of theft our politicians, bureaucrats, businessmen, and generals have committed, can be computed, it will very nearly equal what we owe to the international lending agencies.
What we owe is known. What we earn is also known. This is simple maths. What we owe is more than we earn. We have to begin repaying what we owe by 2018. This we don’t have the resources to do. When we default on our international debt, sanctions is the first thing we should fear among many other arm twisting measures that will be taken against us. The cumulative effect of all these will be our loss of sovereignty. Those who have put up the money will demand their pound of flesh. It is my conviction that they will demand a surrender of our nuclear assets, an end to CPEC, and free play in Baluchistan.
Pakistan will be brought down to its very knees without an external enemy having had to fire a single shot. The shots that had to be fired have already been fired by our corrupt elite. While we were looking out towards our borders our rulers were busy hollowing out Pakistan. Mega corruption was always the single most lethal threat to our national security and survival and should have been laid down as a national security imperative. 
I have repeatedly tried to impress this on the minds of the powers that be. I have it on very good authority that what I was writing, was being read by Raheel Sharif. I appealed to him repeatedly to see the writing on the wall, and as the de facto guarantor of the security of the state, knock the doors of the Supreme Court to ask for in camera hearing on how Nawaz Sharif and company were impeding the efforts of Zarf e Azab, and how their plunder of the country was tantamount to the single greatest threat to the security of the state. But sadly, becoming Field Marshal, or getting a three-year extension seems to have grabbed the whole of his little mind, leaving little space for weightier matters.
Be that as it may, we are now in need of our third miracle, and this is to take the first miracle, the ouster of Nawaz Sharif, to its logical conclusion. 
Though Nawaz Sharif has been shown the door, he has left behind his pile of “loyal” refuse…. loyal because they were equally involved with the rape of their mother[land] in partnership with him. And they are determined to make Pakistan bleed and drag it to the very edge from where our Supreme Court has tried valiantly to drag it back.
This must immediately be stopped. Pakistan is a bleeding and very weak patient. It cannot bear any more cuts. If it has to survive, the cuts must immediately cease and the bleeding stopped.

The President, the Chief Justice, and the Army Chief should get together to do this. Because the de facto charge of national security lies with the Army Chief, it is he who should bring about this meeting.

And this meeting should decide to do the following 3 things;
1    –   At the moment there are no more than 20 people who need to be put away to ensure that no more instability is allowed to be visited upon Pakistan. About fifteen of them, though ministers today, can be cited for contempt of court. The evidence to do this exists in miles of TV footage. Take these fifteen out and the rest will run for cover.
2  –  The Supreme Court should take suo moto notice of literally hundreds of cases of corruption exposed by our media, and as a first step, put these people on ECL. These people are the only national treasure we have left. We need them to be here so that we can squeeze them and get back the gold they have stolen.
3 –  The President should be strengthened against forced resignation.
Just these three things need to be done, and thereafter the Army Chief need just send around a Subedar and he will be enough to do the mopping up.
In all this, the only thing the army should not be tempted to do is to come in to rule the country.

 

It should though, in partnership with the SC help clear the decks, and follow up with ensuring a clean election. And after the elections, it should throw its considerable heft behind ensuring that reforms be so made that the bureaucracy and the police be so restructured that their postings transfers and promotions are not hostages to the executive. Without subverting the police and the bureaucracy to their ends, political leaders cannot commit theft, and if they still manage to do so, they cannot be immune from the consequences.

The state should be seen as the supreme value. A constitution subverted to barter away the state can only be an inimical document, and must be brought back into a shape which guarantees the security of the state and the welfare of the people for whom it is the supreme law. A mangled constitution like ours is present, which ensures immunity to a corrupt and mercenary elite at the cost of the state and the people, can have no sanctity.
This time is crucial for the destiny of Pakistan. A beginning has been made so that a corrupt few do not make this destiny hostage. But if this beginning does not have a felicitous conclusion, the beginning will have no meaning. This is what the C.J and the Army Chief must be very clear about.
We’ve had the miracle of the ouster of Nawaz Sharif. We’ve then had the miracle of seeing Shahid Khaqaan Abassi elevated to Prime Minister. This second miracle nullifies the first. 
We now need a third miracle. We want the refuse of Nawaz and company swept out not just from our lives, but also from our memory. And we need to see being brought to the book Zardari and his footmen, along with camp followers like Fazl ur Rehman, Asfandyar Wali, Achakzai, the shit that Altaf Hussain has left behind, and the many who are hiding under their beds.
p.s

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I end with urging Gen Bajwa to study and see the threat of mega corruption for what it really is; to redefine national security imperatives and give to this cancer the “honoured” place it deserves in these imperatives; and to openly work with the Chief Justice towards crushing the head of this poisonous snake, so that Pakistan gets a new lease of life. And for these measures to have any credibility, let him begin SIMULTANEOUSLY with the generals who’ve received just a tepid slap on their wrists for bringing dishonor to every man in uniform, and a taint which no amount of dry cleaning can restore to purity.

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Is the Saudi-led crackdown on Qatar a Washington manouver to nix the Emirate’s attempts to sell oil and gas in Chinese Yuan, undermining the hegemony of the US dollar ?

 

Is the Saudi-led crackdown on Qatar a Washington manoeuvre to nix the Emirate’s attempts to sell oil and gas in Chinese Yuan, undermining the hegemony of the US dollar?

 

 

Over the past two years, Qatar has conducted over $86 billion worth of transactions in Chinese Yuan and signed several economic agreements with China.

Is the Saudi-led crackdown on Qatar a Washington manoeuvre to nix the Emirate’s attempts to sell oil and gas in Chinese yuan, via Iran, undermining the hegemony of the US dollar that has been the international standard since the Nixon Presidency?

 

America’s hostility to Iraq and Libya was rooted in their attempts to sell oil in currencies other than the US dollar, and led to regime change in both nations, along with the brutal deaths of Saddam Hussain and Muammar Gaddafi, respectively.

Observers have long opined that the “real” reason for the war in Iraq was Saddam Hussein’s decision, announced in October 2000, to price Iraqi oil in the new currency of the European Union, rather than in US dollars, “the currency of the enemy”. It is well known that unless the price of oil is denominated in dollars, Washington cannot run its huge balance of payments deficits, as other nations hold accounts and reserves in dollars only to pay for oil.

According to a Guardian report of 2003, Iraq made handsome profits in selling oil in euros, until the US invasion (March 2003) forced oil sales back to the dollar. Prior to that, from 2001, under the UN oil-for-food program, almost all Iraqi oil exports were paid in euro and roughly 26 billion euros (£17.4 bn) was paid for 3.3 billion barrels of oil into an escrow account in New York. It earned a higher rate of interest in euros than it would have in dollars.

According to a Guardian report 2003, Iraq made handsome profits in selling oil in euros, until the US invasion forced oil sales back to the dollar.

Wikileaks has since revealed Hillary Clinton’s emails which show that the US and French President Nicolas Sarkozy were keen to attack Libya’s Gaddafi to scuttle his plan to unite Africa under a single gold-backed currency (African gold dinar) to be used to buy and sell oil on the global markets.

France moved UN Security Council Resolution 1973 for a no-fly zone over Libya, ostensibly to protect civilians. But an April 2011 email to Hillary Clinton, titled “France’s client and Qaddafi’s gold”, exposes Nicholas Sarkozy as saying for Gaddafi’s blood to obtain Libyan oil (French company, Total), ensure France’s regional influence, boost Sarkozy’s domestic reputation (for re-election; he lost), assert French military power, and curb Gaddafi’s sway over “Francophone Africa” (French colonial Africa).

Iraq made handsome profits in selling oil in euros, until the US invasion (March 2003) forced oil sales back to the dollar.

The email deals lengthily with the enormous threat that Gaddafi’s gold and silver reserves, estimated at “143 tons of gold, and a similar amount in silver,” posed to the French franc that was a leading African currency.

 

 

 

The “confidential” reason behind the war was that “This gold was accumulated prior to the current rebellion and was intended to be used to establish a pan-African currency based on the Libyan golden Dinar. This plan was designed to provide the Francophone African Countries with an alternative to the French franc (CFA).”

The 2 April 2011 email to Hillary Clinton (UNCLASSIFIED US Department of State Case No. F-2014-20439 Doc No. C05779612 Date: 12/31/2015) reports a high-ranking official on the National Libyan Council as stating that factions have developed within the Council, partly due to French cultivation of clients among the rebels.

General Abdel Fatah Younis is said to be the leading figure closest to the French, and Younis has told his clique on the NLC that the French have promised to provide military trainers and arms.

There is some impatience over the pace of delivery, and the men understand that France has clear economic interests at stake. Sarkozy’s occasional emissary, the intellectual Bernard Henri-Levy, is not respected by the pro-France NLC action.

The email notes that Qaddafi has immense financial resources. On April 2, 2011, sources with access to advisors to Saif al-Islam Qaddafi revealed in strictest confidence that while the freezing of Libya’s foreign bank accounts did affect Muammar Qaddafi, his ability to equip and maintain his armed forces and intelligence services was intact. These sources said that Qaddafi’s government holds 143 tons of gold and a similar amount in silver.

The recently promoted Saudi crown prince, Mohammad bin Salman, is reputed to be the prime mover behind the attempt to isolate Qatar.

In late March 2011, these stocks were moved to SABHA (south-west in the direction of the Libyan border with Niger and Chad), from the vaults of the Libyan Central Bank in Tripoli.

This gold was intended to be used to establish a pan-African currency based on the Libyan golden dinar and was to offer the Francophone African Countries with an alternative to the French franc.

Seen in this context, Qatar could be the next country to face a Syrian or Yemen-style attempt at regime change. It is pertinent that on June 5, soon after the visit of US President Donald Trump to Saudi Arabia, Riyadh led other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in an attempt to browbeat Qatar through a list of 13 demands that Doha must comply with, or face unspecified action. Most western capitals agree that the demands are difficult to accept.

Briefly, these include shutting down Al-Jazeera and its affiliate stations, and other news outlets funded by Qatar such as Middle East Eye; curbing diplomatic ties with Iran and expelling members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard (who are not present in Qatar); terminating the Turkish military base in Qatar; consenting to monthly audits for a year after accepting the demands, and aligning with other Gulf and Arab countries militarily, politically, socially, and economically. As of now, Qatar has rejected the demands as unreasonable.

The recently promoted Saudi crown prince, Mohammad bin Salman, is reputed to be the prime mover behind the attempt to isolate Qatar. The aim is to curtail Qatar’s links with Iran, Riyadh’s main regional rival. But this is not practical for Qatar as it derives much of its wealth from the offshore South Pars natural gas field, which it shares with Iran. This relationship is why Iran, like Turkey, immediately sent Doha food supplies after the Saudi blockaded the only land route to the emirate.

It is pertinent that Qatar, like Turkey and Saudi Arabia, had initially wanted to build a natural gas pipeline to Europe, through Syria, against the wishes of President Assad. This prompted the Syrian Alawi/Shia government to urge Shia-majority Iran and Iraq to build a pipeline eastward, excluding the Sunni-majority Qatar, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, which backed the anti-Assad fighters. Qatar has since reconciled to the near collapse of the anti-Assad front.

Over the past two years, Qatar has conducted over $86 billion worth of transactions in yuan and signed several economic agreements with China.

It is notable that Iran too conducts its oil-related business deals with China in yuan. Soon after the nuclear deal with Washington in 2015, Tehran moved to improve its economy by upping production on its share of the Iran-Qatari gas reserve and signed a deal with France’s Total in November 2016.

Qatar was forced to join and lifted a self-imposed ban on developing the gas field in April 2017.

The Iran-Qatar deal has the potential to derail American hegemony over world financial markets. This explains President Trump’s move to make Riyadh his first foreign visit. Trump has made his intention to secure regime change in Tehran clear. How he intends to cope with Qatar, which hosts the largest US military base in the region, with around 11,000 troops, is less clear. Shifting the base could potentially destabilise other host countries. For now, he could leave the problem to Riyadh. But as events in Syria and Yemen show, it is easier to get embroiled in a conflagration in the Middle East than it is to get out.

https://www.pgurus.com/is-qatar-the-next-battlefield/

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