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Archive for October, 2010

LEST WE FORGET: The Prophet Muhammad’s (PBUH) Last Sermon

“O People, lend me an attentive ear, for I know not whether after this year, I shall ever be amongst you again. Therefore listen to what I am saying to you very carefully and TAKE THESE WORDS TO THOSE WHO COULD NOT BE PRESENT HERE TODAY.

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In House Change may be in the Offing

 Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, a prominent member of PMLN and the opposition leader in the Pakistan

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Pakistan Economy

Assessing Pakistan’s Decade 1999-2009

This December 31, 2009, is not just the end of the year; it brings a momentous decade of achievements in Pakistan to a chaotic and bloody end. After a relatively peaceful but economically stagnant decade of the 1990s, the year 1999 brought a bloodless coup led by General Pervez Musharraf, ushering in an era of accelerated economic growth that led to more than doubling of the national GDP, and dramatic expansion in Pakistan’s urban middle class. In 2007, analysts at Standard Chartered bank estimated that Pakistan has a middle class of 30 million which earns an average of about $10,000 per year. And adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP), Pakistan’s per capita GDP is approaching $3,000 per head. The decade also cast a huge shadow of the US “war on terror” on Pakistan, eventually turning the nation into a frontline state in the increasingly deadly conflict that shows no signs of abating. Along with the blood and gore and chaos on the streets, there are hopeful signs that rule of law and accountability is beginning to prevail in the country with the restoration of representative democracy and independent judiciary, largely in response to an increasingly assertive urban middle class, vibrant mass media and growing civil society. Let’s look at some of the highlights, low lights and then discuss the shape of things to come.

High-lights:

1. Pakistan’s tax base and government revenue collection more than doubled from about Rs. 500b to over Rs. 1.2 trillion.

2. Pakistan’s GDP more than doubled to $170 billion (nominal) since 1999. It has reached $440 billion in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP).

3. Pakistan attracted over $5 billion in foreign direct investment in the 2006-07 fiscal year, ten times the figure of 2000-01.

4. The country has experienced a mass media revolution. There are now multiple, competing television channels catering to almost every niche, whim and taste—from news, sports, comedy and talk shows to channels dedicated to cooking, fashion, fitness, music, business, religion, local languages and cultures etc. It seems that this media revolution has had a profound influence on how many young people talk, dress and behave, emulating the outspoken media personalities, actors, preachers, singers, sportsmen, celebrities and fashion models. In addition to a smorgasbord of TV channels born out of a surge in advertising spending, there are many newspapers and tabloids, and serious and glossy magazines, and many FM radio stations providing local news, sports, weather and traffic.

5. The strong consumer demand in Pakistan drove large investments in real estate, construction, communications, automobile manufacturing, banking and various consumer goods. Millions of new jobs were created. By all accounts, the ranks of the middle class swelled in Pakistan. In 2007, analysts at Standard Chartered bank estimated that Pakistan has a middle class of 30 million which earns an average of about $10,000 per year. And adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP), Pakistan’s per capita GDP is approaching $3,000 per head.

6. Pakistan’s KSE-100 stock index surged 55% in 2009, a year that also saw the South Asian nation wracked by increased violence and its state institutions described by various media talking heads as being on the verge of collapse. Even more surprising is the whopping 825% increase in KSE-100 from 1999 to 2009, which makes it a significantly better performer than the BRIC nations. BRIC darling China has actually underperformed its peers, rising only 150 percent compared with energy-rich Brazil (520 percent) and Russia (326 percent) or well-regulated India (274 percent), which some investors see as a safer and more diverse bet compared with the Chinese equity market, which is dominated by bank stocks. According to Tariq Iqbal Khan, Chairman of Pakistan National Investment Trust(NIT), KSE-100 equities provided investors with average annual return of 21 percent during the decade 1999-2009 while the average inflation during this period was 7.2 percent.

7. The Wall Street Journal did a story in September 2007 on Pakistan’s start-up boom that said, “Scores of new businesses once unseen in Pakistan, from fitness studios to chic coffee shops to hair-transplant centers, are springing up in the wake of a dramatic economic expansion. As a result, new wealth and unprecedented consumer choice have become part of Pakistan’s volatile social mix.”

8. The PPP leadership under former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto returned to Pakistan in 2007 following a US-sponsored amnesty signed by former President Musharraf. Unfortunately, Ms. Bhutto was assassinated before the elections in December 2007. However, the results of the free and fair elections held in 2008 were respected by former President Musharraf that allowed the PPP, led by Benazir Bhutto’s widower Asif Ali Zardari, to assume control of the government. Later, Mr. Zardari forced President Musharraf out and succeeded him into the office of the president.

9. Persistent and powerful mass movement led by Pakistani lawyers forced the PPP government to restore Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry and several other senior judges earlier this year. The NRO amnesty that facilitated the PPP leaders’ return has since been annulled by the Supreme Court of Pakistan, and all of the corruption and criminal cases against Mr. Zardari and many of his ministers have been re-opened. The chief justice appears determined to pursue accountability and rule of law against all odds.

10. Pakistan’s information technology(IT) sector revenue grew from almost nothing to about $2.8 billion in 2008, with about half of it from exports.

11. Higher education reform initiated by Dr. Ata-ur Rehman Khan under President Musharraf resulted in over fivefold increase in public funding for universities, with a special emphasis on science, technology and engineering. The reform supported initiatives such as a free national digital library and high-speed Internet access for universities as well as new scholarships enabling more than 2,000 students to study abroad for PhDs

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No shaming the shameless

An old Mexican aphorism,

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Drone Attacks and Pakistan

Pakistan is being pushed to the brink by consistent anti-Pakistan actions and policies by its historical ally, the United States. Most of these policies lie at the door of Mr.Obama, whose lack of experience in foriegn affairs is begining to malign U.S.friends like Pakistan. It seems that the U.S. policy towards Pakistan follows a sinusoidal curve. There no consistency and stability in U.S. attitude, while claiming strategic partnership with Pakistan on one hand, U.S. deliberately violates Pakistan’s air space and national boundaries on the other.  Pakistani public has shown remarkable patience towards these flagrant violations of International Law and Norms.  It now seems their patience is running out. A point of no return seems to be on the horizon, at which Pakistan may fully turn to its only ally in the region, China to back it up, when it responds defensively to assert its sovereignty. Pakistan is not Iraq. Its people have fought many invaders as guerrilas and as part of a conventional fighting force.  Pakistani remember the lessons of Vietnam and Afghanistan.  At the same time, Pakistani people are realistic enough to know that they cannot challenge a global power, they also live by the credo enunicated by their national poet, Iqbal,
Ae tair-e-lahoti uss rizq say maut achi
jiss rizk se aati ho parwaz mei kotahi…
Only time will tell…
 Pakistan’s most prominent — and vocal — retired chiefs of the army are demanding that the country’s air force be ordered to shoot down drones and helicopters — and increasingly angry active duty officers are voicing their approval in off-the-record conversations with Pakistani journalists.

The country’s senior generals on active duty are being blasted as “American stooges.” Gen. Mirza Aslam Beg, the retired army chief who succeeded President Muhammad Zia ul-Haq, who died in a mysterious 1988 plane crash, told The Nation daily that U.S. military and CIA drones were increasing the tempo of their intrusions in Pakistani air space and that many Pakistani people had been killed.

“We have got the means to avert threats to our security,” said Beg, “and our air force must be ordered to take action against them.”

Beg conceded it was “very painful for him to hear that U.S. war criminal (U.S. Special Envoy for Pakistan and Afghanistan) Richard Holbrooke said in a statement that U.S. drone attacks were being carried out with the consent of the Pakistan government and the army’s (general headquarters).”

Another influential former head of Pakistan’s Inter-Services-Intelligence agency, Gen. Hamid Gul, said the United States fears the return of the Supreme Court because it could rule the U.S. drone attacks are violations of the country’s sovereignty.

If that happens, the Pakistani parliament would have to act on the Supreme Court’s decision and reverse the policy. The United States is skeptical and suspicious that if the Supreme Court is given free rein again in Pakistan, “it is likely to rule against their interests and agenda in Pakistan.”

In another broadside, Gul said “the Pakistani government should stop NATO supplies permanently or face the reality” — the wrath of the people.

What’s left of al-Qaida’s operational command structure is in North Waziristan, one of the seven tribal agencies in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas along the Afghan border. The most recent al-Qaida commander killed in a drone attack was Fateh al-Misri, believed to be the commander for al-Qaida activities in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

FATA, like the capital of Islamabad, is federal territory. And America’s many detractors — the Pew Foundation found that 64 percent regard the United States as an enemy — say that drone and helicopter attacks are a direct violation of Pakistani sovereignty.

A more ominous anti-American voice courted by the freest media in Asia is Dr. A.Q. Khan, the nuclear scientist Khan writes articles and gives interviews to print, radio and TV media, spreading hatred against the United States, openly discussing nuclear secrets, and courting arrest, presumably to provoke anti-U.S. demonstrations.

The security establishment convened a meeting in the prime minister’s residence to discuss how Khan could be reined in and restricted to a life of anonymity. The conclusion was that couldn’t be done without triggering a national pro-A.Q. Khan movement. He is still the most popular man in Pakistan and some pundits see him as a possible president in a future government with a return to power of another notorious anti-American, Nawaz Sharif.

In a unanimous decision, the country’s parliament condemned U.S. attacks against FATA targets and asked for a halt in cross-border raids. But this was ignored and the attacks continued.

Tit-for-tat wasn’t long in coming. A U.S. helicopter gunship returned fire at a group of Pakistani Frontier Corps soldiers, killing three — triggering a major crisis between the two countries.

Pakistan suddenly closed the Khyber Pass, the most important supply route for NATO and U.S. forces in Afghanistan. About 70 percent of the Afghan war’s requirements is offloaded in Karachi, the port city of 18 million, onto trucks and tankers for the 1,200-mile trip through Pakistan to the 33-mile-long Khyber Pass and on to Kabul to service the needs of troops operating in eastern Afghanistan. A second route through Quetta in Baluchistan to Kandahar remained open. It handles supplies for southern, eastern and northern Afghanistan.

Some 1,200 trucks and gasoline tankers suddenly found themselves backed up over hundreds of miles — and sitting ducks for Pakistani Taliban insurgent attacks. Over the 11-day shutdown of the Torkham border post at the end of the Khyber Pass, 125 transport vehicles were torched.

It is now clear Pakistan is no longer in the ranks of “major non-NATO allies,” where U.S. President George W. Bush had promoted the tragedy-plagued nation of 180 million Muslims. For some U.S. policymakers, Pakistan is a regional and global cancer and for others what the CIA called “Terror Center of the World.”

Britain, Germany, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain, Italy and Turkey, all traced some of their nationals to al-Qaida and Taliban training camps in FATA — particularly North Waziristan.

In its offensive against Taliban insurgents in FATA, the Pakistani army carefully avoided North Waziristan. The recent floods that affected almost 20 million people diverted much of the army to rescue operations. So that part of FATA continues to enjoy immunity from Pakistani counter-insurgency operations. It is also the location of headquarters and training camps for the Haqqani group of insurgents that is fighting allied forces in Afghanistan.

Pakistan’s political and military leadership reached the conclusion years ago the United States wouldn’t fight on to victory in Afghanistan and that the end would be closer to Vietnam than to Korea, where the enemy was pushed back to the status quo ante on the 38th parallel, a victory by modern definition. The Vietnam War ended with a wishy-washy compromise peace agreement pending a final push to victory by North Vietnam — after Congress voted against any further military assistance to South Vietnamese allies.

The July 2011 date for the beginning of a drawdown of U.S. troops in Afghanistan now looms larger in national security adviser Tom Donilon’s White House office than it does in Bob Gates’ at the Pentagon or at Gen. David Petraeus’ Afghan headquarters.

On Jan 23, days after Barack Obama was sworn in as President of the United States, a series of missiles slammed into Pakistan’s tribal areas along the Afghan border – in continuation of Washington’s policy of targeting al-Qaeda and Taliban elements regardless of sovereignty issues.

“The drone attacks anger Pakistanis because the government, in cahoots with the media, refuses to explain that Pakistani governments have been complicit in seeking rent from Washington to fight what now appears to be America’s war,” said military analyst, Ayesha Siddiqa.

Drones or remote-controlled are pilotless aircraft that hover high in the skies and fire missiles with accuracy at selected targets, but in Pakistan they have caused significant ‘collateral damage’ to civilian populations.

In 2008, there were 32 such attacks on Islamist militant sites, killing 216 terrorists and 84 civilians, according to a report by the Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS), an Islamabad-based think tank.

More than 134 civilians have died, so far, in missile attacks within Pakistani territory and no other country in the world has been subjected to such a sustained campaign using drones. The attacks followed Washington’s perception that Pakistan was not doing enough to stop cross-border operations by Islamist militants or, more recently, attacks on supply routes to Afghanistan through Pakistan.

Siddiqa, who got into the military’s crosshairs after the publication in 2007 of her book, ‘Military Inc., The politics of Military’s Economy in Pakistan’, said Obama was only protecting U.S. interests. “His understanding is that despite payment of 12 billion US dollars Pakistan has not delivered [on its commitment to go after al-Qaeda and Taliban holed up in the tribal areas].”

Obama’s policy appears to be one of using a smaller carrot and a bigger stick to get the Pakistan army to stick to its side of the bargain. On his first day in office he said that the delivery of non-military annual aid worth 1.5 billion dollars to Pakistan would depend on “performance” in combating extremists.

Washington has also deducted 55 million dollars from reimbursements for expenses billed by Pakistan for war-on-terror expenses – releasing only 101 million dollars against Pakistan’s claim of 156 million dollars.

This approach has bred resentment in Pakistan and President Asif Ali Zardari said, in an article in the Washington Post published on Jan. 28, that this country did not “need lectures” on its commitment to the war but “assistance”.

”Frankly, the abandonment of Afghanistan and Pakistan after the defeat of the Soviets in Afghanistan in the 1980s set the stage for the era of terrorism that we are enduring. U.S. support for the priorities of dictatorship back then, and again at the start of the new millennium, neglected the social and economic development of our nation, the priorities of the people,” Zardari wrote.

Nasim Zehra, a political analyst said in her column published on Feb. 4 in ‘The News’, a leading English-language daily, that “to aid Pakistan in tracking and fighting militants operating within Pakistani territory and from keeping its Pakistan-Afghan border secure, Washington should provide Pakistan the military means that Pakistani forces have repeatedly requested to ensure effective intelligence gathering…”

“At this stage Pakistan cannot afford to reduce the strength and budget of the army,” says Sher Zaman Taizai, a noted Pakhtun writer, and formerly Pakistan’s defence attach

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