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Indian warmongering & Pakistan’s enhanced deterrence By Dr Mehmood-ul-Hassan Khan

Indian warmongering & Pakistan’s enhanced deterrence

Dr Mehmood-ul-Hassan Khan

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PRIME Minister of Pakistan and the COAS General Qamar Bajwa have seriously highlighted constant “warmongering” and “imminent” martial “escalations” of India to the regional as well as international countries. Both leaders warned India for its “covert” designs and war preparedness against Pakistan and assured a “crushing” and “befitting” response in any case of aggression and violation of “territorial” and “national” sovereignty. In this time of need, the government of Pakistan has once again secured a firm “assurance” from its biggest “strategic” partner China during the closing ceremony of Pak-China Air Force Joint Drill “Shaheen IX” “The enemy of Pakistan is the enemy of China and attack on Pakistan is an attack on China”. It showed depth of Pak-China iron friendship to deter any external aggression and to maintain “equitable” regional peace and harmony. This announcement has destabilized Indian hegemonic dreams of strategic expansion.

On its part, Pakistan Air Force (PAF), being custodian of Pakistan’s skies, has now showcased extended production of the most advanced variant of JF-17 Thunder Block-III, a 4.5 generation aircraft with far more advanced technology than Indian Air Force Rafael jets. The PAF’s announcement has serious regional repercussions. It will further strengthen and enhance Pakistan’s air defence, tactical and operational preparedness and, above all, much needed martial diversity and maneuverability in the days to come. It will equalize Indian so called Air Force supremacy or obsession of Rafael war jet. Most recently, the Pakistan Air Force has received 14 state-of-the-art indigenously developed dual seat JF-17B Thunder Block-II fighter jets to the air force which further consolidated national deterrence. The handing over ceremony was held in Pakistan Aeronautical Complex, Kamra graced by Chief of the Air Staff Air Chief Marshal Mujahid Anwar Khan and newly appointed Chinese Ambassador H E Nong Rong along with high officials of Chinese Aviation authorities and industry.

While addressing the ceremony, Chief of the Air Staff Air Chief Marshal Mujahid Anwar Khan termed the inclusion of JF-17 Thunder Block-II as “significant” milestone achieved in the national history of Pakistan. He labelled it one of the most tested battles aircraft having modern avionics and electronics much superior than Indian borrowed French Rafael war jets. He assured that JF-17 Block-III will create PAF supremacy over IAF. He also announced “serial” production of PAF’s most advanced 4.5 generation JF-17 Thunder Block-III jets. He appreciated tireless efforts of the members of Aircraft Manufacturing Factory (AMF) and the PAC involvement in the development of the advanced generation of the dual seater JF-17B Thunder and Block-III jets versions. He rightly pinpointed constant onslaught of COVID-19 in the completion of JF-17 Block-II and delay of JF-17 Thunder Block-III during 2020. The Air Chief Marshal highly appreciated valuable contribution of PAC Kamra in developing the JF-17 Thunder Block-II despite all odds during 2020. He hailed joint working and unfading commitment of the PAC and Chinese engineers, technicians and designers for timely completion of the JF-17 Thunder Block-II. He commended the entire team and PAC leadership including PAC Managing Director (AMF) for their concerted efforts to meet the project deadlines. He rightly termed the PAC the “backbone” of PAF operationalization and channelization which also displayed their capabilities to meet challenges with limited resources at the optimum level.
The Air Chief also thanked the Ministry of Defence Production and Chinese Aviation industry for their continuous support. He was of the opinion that dual seater of JF-17 Thunder Block-II and the production of its extended Block-III mark the achievement of a significant milestone as it will play an important role on the rapidly changing geostrategic dimensions of the region and beyond. He assured that JF-17 Thunder Block-III would be a state-of-the-art war jet to cope with any external aggression from IAF in the days to come. He said that development of further progress of the JF-17 Thunders would not be possible without the help of Chinese experts, technicians, designers and planners which has definitely further solidified Pak-China defence cooperation and, of course, iron friendship. To conclude he highly appreciated befitting, active, positive and productive role of the mass media in the projection of the CPEC and development of the JF-17 Thunder. He advised the mass media to continue their positive role in this regard. He resolved that PAF has already vividly reflected its capabilities having every ready response against any aggression of the enemy with a crushing magnitude.
On his part, PAC Chairman Air Marshal Syed Nauman Ali briefed the participants about the JF-17 Thunder Block-II and start of production of its Block-III. He termed it shining symbol of cooperation between Pakistan and China. He highlighted diversified but integrated rich expertise of PAC technicians and experts in the timely completion of the said project against all odds. He appreciated Chinese experts’ positive and contributory role in the development of the JF-17 Thunder Block-II. He thanked extraordinary support of the Chinese Aviation Industry and its associated sectors for the further development of PAC in terms of innovations, modern technologies and, above all, exchange programmes. He resolved that PAC would stand committed to fulfil the sacred duty of augmenting fighting force and strengthen to defend the country’s aerial sovereignty.
On his part the newly appointed Chinese Ambassador H.E. Nong Rong highly appreciated achievements of the PAC in terms of JF-17 Thunder Block-II and defence cooperation. He termed it a perfect model of Pak-China Friendship due to which Pakistan is now self-sufficient to produce modern war jets in the country. He upheld that inclusion of latest version of JF-17 Thunder 17 will further strengthen the PAF capabilities and start of production of its futuristic version Block-III would bring paradigm shift in the region. Most recently, Pakistan Navy Air Defence Units have also demonstrated their combat readiness through live firing of surface to air missiles (SAMs) which showcased its modern persuasion of the Pakistan Navy.
Interestingly, Chinese media has also reported supply of 50 Wing Loong-II armed drones to Pakistan which would be nightmare for Indian ground formations in high altitude areas as Indian military does not have the ability to respond to the modern weaponry. The Wing Loong-II armed drone has the ability to decimate the enemy defences and conventional armour due to which Indian ground formations would be unable to parry an attack by a large number of armed drones. Being a prominent regional expert of China I foresee that in case of any Indian aggression the PAF would be front line of national defence in which patriotic spirits, unmatched human capital and last but not the least ever readiness of the PAF and armed forces of Pakistan would play a vital role.
—The writer is Director, Geopolitics/Economics Member Board of Experts, CGSS.

Courtesy –Pakistan Observer

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Pakistan’s Victory in 1965 War

Pakistan won 65 War with national unity, heroic battlefield performances: Brig. Mahmood

Senior defence analyst and former Secretary Security Fata, Brigadier (Retd), Mahmood Shah said here Tuesday that Pakistan won the 1965 War against India due to national unity and heroic battlefield performance of the armed forces

PESHAWAR, (UrduPoint / Pakistan Point News – 1st Sep, 2020 ):Senior defence analyst and former Secretary Security FATA (now KPK province), Brigadier (Retd), Mahmood Shah said here Tuesday that Pakistan won the 1965 War against India due to national unity and heroic battlefield performance of the armed forces.

Talking to APP, he said 6th September was being celebrated as defence day of Pakistan every year with national enthusiasm as on this day in 1965, India had attacked Pakistan in darkness, which was repulsed by our valiant armed forces with support of the nation.

He said the day reminds us of the matchless sacrifices rendered by our armed forces and unprecedented unity demonstrated by the nation that repulsed the enemy attack and safeguarded the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the homeland.

He said the whole nation along with their valiant military forces stood up when India attacked Pakistan in darkness on September 6, 1965 without a warning or a declaration of war.

He said India’s attack was a complete violation of UN charter, all international laws, conventions and bilateral peace agreements.

Brigadier Mahmood Shah recalled that the enemy had launched attacks on West Pakistan on a wide front, from Sialkot, Lahore to Kasur aimed at to disperse Pakistani forces to achieve its nefarious objectives. But India completely failed in its aims.

He said although we were outnumbered by the Indian forces that comprises armored, artillery and infantry divisions backed by Indian Air Force, yet Pakistani forces had successfully repulsed all attacks of the Indian ground forces with unprecedented chivalry and indomitable courage.

He said the invaders appeared to have been under the impression that they would not meet much opposition in securing their nefarious objectives including occupation of the historic city of Lahore.

He said the promise, which an Indian general made to his officers that he would meet them at Lahore Gymkhana Club, had been thwarted by Pakistan armed forces.

He said Major Raja Aziz Bhatti Shaheed (Nishan-i-Haider) fought bravely and defended the strategic BRB canal near Lahore for five days before he embraced shahadat when he was hit by a shell of the enemy tank on 10th September 1965.

 

Brig Mahmood Shah said officers and Jawans of Pakistan Army, Pakistan Navy, Pakistan Air Force besides our artillery fought bravely and defeated the enemy in the 1965 War.

He recalled that most of the Indian officers of 1965 war had served with Pakistani commanders during the second World War before partition and we knew about their so called fighting abilities and wars skills that helped our forces to foil their evil designs in the 1965 War.

During the War, Pakistan had occupied about 1,617 square miles of Indian territory and we were in strong position to occupy Delhi as well if the war had continued for few more days as morale of the enemy troops were completely shattered after repeated defeats on all fronts, he recalled.

He said Squadron Leader Muhammad Mahmood Alam shot down two enemy hunter aircraft and damaged three others on 6th September and destroyed five more enemy hunter aircraft in less than a minute on 7th September, which was unprecedented in the history of Pakistan Air Force.

He said the motivational songs of the legendary Madam Noor Jehan such as “Ay Watan ke Sajelay Jawano” and “Rang Laye Ga Shaheedo ka Laho” aired by Radio Pakistan had infused the spirit of patriotism and national fervor amongst Pakistanis regardless to their ethnicity, religion, caste, colour or political affiliation during the 1965 War.

He said on February 27, 2019, Pakistan Air Force (PAF) fighting jets shot down two Indian warplanes inside the Line of Control, one crashed in Azad Kashmir while the other in Indian Illegally Occupied Jummu and Kashmir besides, capturing the Indian pilot, which proved the high-level of preparedness, professionalism and strength of PAF.

He said the February 27 successful action of PAF had clearly testified that Pakistan armed forces were fully capable to give a befitting response to India, in case of any misadventure by it in the future.

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Conviction of Hafiz Saeed by Asif Haroon Raja

Conviction of Hafiz Saeed

Asif Haroon Raja

 

 

The Anti-Terrorist Court (ATC) in Lahore under Judge Arshad Hussain Bhutta convicted Hafiz Saeed on February 12 and jailed him for 11 years. His colleague Zafar Iqbal was also given 11 years jail term. 23 prosecution witnesses testified but none could provide any concrete evidence. The prosecutor maintained that Lashkar-e-Taeba (LeT) and Jamaatud Dawa (JuD) were two sides of the same coin and since LeT had been declared a proscribed organization vide UN resolution 1267 and put under sanctions, Pakistan being a member of the UN must take action. Despite the fact that the prosecution couldn’t prove the charge of terrorism, the two accused were declared guilty on account of being a member of a banned outfit, supporting and arranging meetings of a proscribed organization, illegal fundraising and buying properties from the raised funds. Besides Indian media, a segment of Pak media together with a handful of well-heeled liberals in Pakistan have been demonizing Hafiz Saeed and his JuD and presenting him an asset of the military establishment.   

Hafiz Saeed was the founder of LeT in the early 1990s, which was actively involved in armed Kashmiri freedom movement. Once LeT and some other Kashmir focused Jihadi groups like Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM) were banned by Gen Musharraf under pressure from India and USA in 2002/03, Hafiz Saeed detached himself from LeT and created an educational & charitable outfit at Muredke near Lahore, which he named JuD. His set-up is open to all and all activities are transparent. He, however remained on the radar of India as well as the USA.

Between 2001 and 2008, all terror attacks in India were put in the basket of Azhar Masood led JeM or LeT.  The latter was blamed for the Mumbai attacks in November 2008. India also accused ISI that it trained and backed LeT. Since then, India has been constantly pressing Pakistan to punish Hafiz Saeed and other LeT leaders. At the behest of India, the UN and the US declared him a global terrorist and put $10 million bounty as his head money.  

Hafiz Saeed was arrested by Pak authorities 8 times since 2011 and put on trial but the courts couldn’t find any trace of his involvement in Mumbai attacks and had to be released. Neither India could furnish any proofs. Whatever evidence it sent was too flimsy and insufficient to convict him, but India duly backed by USA clung to its stance. 

India couldn’t supply any proofs because Mumbai attacks were masterminded by RAW-Mossad combine in collusion with CIA with a view to undermine the sudden flare-up of unarmed movement in IOK in the summer of 2008, get ISI declared a rogue outfit and Pakistan a terror abetting state. To make it look real, India made hue and cry, suspended composite dialogue and conditioned recommencement of talks to the conviction of the so-called accused. The USA also kept pressing and advising Pakistan to punish the accused to ease tension, renew the process of composite dialogue to resolve of Kashmir dispute and to return to normalcy.   

Ajmal Kasab, the lone surviving accused was tried and hanged within the premises of jail without allowing Pakistani legal team or the Interpol to meet him. India’s claim that Kasab was a Pakistani hailing from village Faridkot was false. He had been kidnapped from Nepal by RAW sometime back and was put in a secret detention center for subsequent use.

The Mumbai drama was initially exposed by the officials of Indian Home Ministry led by Satish Sharma in 2011, who submitted affidavits in Indian Supreme Court asserting that the attacks were an in-house affair to achieve objectives against Pakistan. Fake Hindu saint Aseemanand undergoing the trial of Samjhota Express train blast in 2007 confessed that all the terror attacks in India were the handiwork of Indian terrorist group Abhinav led by Lt Col Purohit of which he was one of the members. Murdered Inspector Hemant Karkare had rounded up the gang and the case was under trial. He was murdered by unknown assassins on the night of 26 November 2008 in Mumbai and thereafter the case was closed and all the accused were set free. As if these revelations were not enough to expose India’s lies and its penchant for false flag operations, two books authored by Indian writers and one by German author spilt the beans.  

With so much incriminating material available, Pakistan was in a good position to put India on the mat and expose its ugly face. Unfortunately, PPP and PML-N governments opted to retain Pakistan’s traditional policy of appeasement. Instead of rebuking Indian bogus version, Indian narrative was agreed to. Several LeT leaders including Hafiz Saeed were arrested and put on trial. Apologetic and defensive stance emboldened India to continue whipping Pakistan under the charge of terrorism.

India under fascist Narendra Modi hardened its stance and stated that till such time Pakistan didn’t control terrorism, it will not talk on Kashmir. Modi forced Nawaz Sharif at Ufa in 2015 to exclude Kashmir from the agenda of future talks and to accord priority to the issue of terrorism. Pakistan’s meekness encouraged India, Afghanistan and USA to dub Pakistan a breeding ground and an epicentre of terrorism and most dangerous country in the world. These labels were given in spite of Pakistan security forces achieving remarkable results in fighting foreign-sponsored terrorist groups in FATA, Swat and Baluchistan and suffering the most.

Failing to suppress the liberation movement in IOK, India not only kept the Line of Control in Kashmir heated up but also broke all records of state terrorism and human rights against Kashmiris in IOK. Finding that Kashmir was slipping out of its hands, RAW conducted a false flag operation in Pulwama on February 14, 2019, which had three-fold objectives. To distract the attention of the world from its human rights abuses against Kashmiris and discredit freedom movement; secondly, to create the justification for a surgical strike inside Pakistan, and thirdly, to whip up anti-Pakistan emotions in India and enlarge the vote bank of BJP for elections in June.

Indian Mirage 2000s intruded in Balakot on February 24 last year under the pretext of taking revenge for Pulwama terror attack. The jets hurriedly released their bombs in a deserted place causing no damage or human casualty due to timely intervention of PAF jets. However, India claimed that it had destroyed a JeM camp. In reaction, PAF made a counter move on the night of 26 February by dropping missiles next to three sensitive targets inside IOK. Indian army chief Gen Bipin survived by the skin of his teeth. In the air duel, PAF pilots shot down one Su-30 and one MiG-21 and captured one pilot. India also lost one helicopter along with the crew due to its own firing. When India tried to strike 8 targets with Brahmo missiles on the night of 27th, Pakistan announced that it had marked 16 targets which took the air out of Modi’s jingoism. Smarting under series of humiliations, Modi ventured to make disputed IOK integral part of India on August 5, 2019, and is now threatening to annex AJK.         

Anguished over their failure to cow down Pakistan or to disable its nuclear program, the three strategic partners India, USA and Israel assisted by puppet regime in Kabul got further upset over the rapid progress made by CPEC. They see it as a dangerous monster capable of overturning their global ambitions. The trio is continuing with proxy war to bleed Pakistan and scuttle CPEC through random attacks. The 5th Generation Hybrid War was launched to create political destabilization, accentuate divisions in society, turn the youth against the army and spoil Pak-China relations.

Additionally, IMF and FATF were used as tools to meltdown Pakistan’s economy and to make it a compliant state. The IMF doled out $ 6 billion loans on stringent conditions forbidding it to use even a penny of the loan money on CPEC or to repay loans of China. The FATF after putting Pakistan in the grey list issued a long list of demands saying if these are not complied with, the country will be blacklisted. The list included the arrest and conviction of JeM head Azhar Masood, and Hafiz Saeed and other LeT leaders.

While India is leaving no stone unturned to put Pakistan in a blacklist, the US is quietly pulling the strings of FATF to keep Pakistan in the grey list for some more time. Alice Wells during her recent visit to Islamabad had admitted that the US would like to keep Pakistan under pressure through FATF till such time Pakistan agree to abide by its dictates.  She declared CPEC and friendship with China harmful for Pakistan.

The International Bully

 

 

 

 

 

 

The new economic and financial managers appointed on the choice of IMF carried out the heavy devaluation of the currency under the hope of boosting exports. They imposed heavy taxes, raised the prices of fuel, gas, and of daily commodities in order to generate revenues. These measures didn’t improve the health of the economy and made the lives of the people difficult. Desperate to uplift the sinking economy and to fulfil the promises made to the people, and to save from getting blacklisted, the cornered government hastened to arrest Hafiz Saeed.

After keeping him under detention for about six months, he was put on trial. The decision of the court was hailed by Alice Wells as well as Trump. India is also happy and sees it a triumph of its consistent efforts. India will now push for his trial on charges of attacks in Mumbai with a view to net ISI and Pakistan in the trap of terrorism.   

Making Hafiz Saeed a sacrificial goat just before the crucial meeting of FATF at Paris from 12-21 February in which Pakistan is hoping to get out of the grey list and become white go against principles and ethics.

For India, Hafiz Saeed has been a pain in the neck since he always raised his voice against Indian barbarities. As head of Difah Pakistan Council, he has been organizing big public meetings and rallies and has been a moving force behind the Kashmiri freedom struggle. His charity outfit Khidmat-e-Khalq provided immense assistance to the victims of natural calamities and was among the first to reach the stranded people caught in the devastating earthquake in AJK in 2005.  JuD has also been imparting free education to the poor and funds to the needy. He is held in high esteem among the Kashmiris living both sides of the divide and has a huge following in Pakistan.

His conviction has not been well received in J&K and by the majority of people in Pakistan particularly the Far Right. They view him as a philanthropist serving humanity, highly patriotic Pakistani and not a terrorist. They feel he has been jailed to please the USA and to mollify India. Already an impression is gaining currency that the government has betrayed the Kashmiris and that neither it is taking any action to provide relief to the marooned 8 million Kashmiris locked up in biggest open prison since August 5, nor it is allowing others to start a Jihad. Since Hafiz Saeed has never been convicted by courts on account of terrorism or funding terrorists, in all likelihood the decision of ATC if challenged might be overturned by Lahore High Court.

The writer is a retired Brig, war veteran, defence and security analyst, columnist, author of five books, Chairman Thinkers Forum Pakistan, Director Measac Research Center, Member CWC and The Think Tank PESS. asifharoonraja@gmail.com            

       

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Pakistan and French Rafale Aircraft deal with IAF – Big Development

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Geostrategy : Nuclear Pakistan: Hot-Headed or Rational?  Syed Ali Zia Jaffery

Geostrategy

Nuclear Pakistan: Hot-Headed or Rational?

Kenneth Waltz”The spread of nuclear weapons: more may be better.”

The essence of the Westphalian state system lies in the concept of territorial sovereignty. Inherent in the sanctity of the mainland is the need for national security. This has become an indispensable vital national interest of all states. The colossal damage caused by the atom bomb in Hiroshima and Nagasaki bears testimony to the annihilation capacity of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs). However, there is a lot more to the use of the “deadly” nukes.

The veritable value of going nuclear can be gauged in the hostile Indo-Pak theatre. The partition of the Indian Subcontinent saw the emergence of this intense rivalry from the very outset. The reasons are well documented and even a cursory look at them would enable students and observers to decipher the anatomy of adversarial ties. Both states grappled with their perceived and actual fears, and to withstand threats to their interests embroiled in armament, both conventional and nuclear. The need for treading on the nuclear path was different for both countries.

It is imperative to briefly differentiate between the reasons for both South Asian titans going nuclear. India’s gargantuan foreign policy goals and security thinking shaped by long-held misgivings shaped her nuclear ambitions. Pakistan, on the other hand, faced with a quantitatively superior eastern neighbor, which was instrumental in its dismemberment, had to look for “internal balancing”. Indeed, the growing conventional asymmetry necessitated Islamabad to bear its own teeth.

Pakistan was left with no choice but to induct a force equalizer to deter India from any military misadventure. Hence, Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine and the development of a cohesive nuclear force are intended to ward-off threats emanating from India. In all earnestness, Pakistan’s nuclear incursions are solely India centric.

This assertion can be corroborated by the fact that Pakistan maintains the doctrine of Credible Minimum Deterrence (CMD). The idea behind CMD is that an enemy larger in size can be dissuaded with small but a credible nuclear force. The doctrine is well-suited to Pakistan’s evident limitations.

Pakistan’s persistence with CMD has been effective in averting wars and also the “nuclear bogey” among other factors, ensured that low-intensity conflicts did not escalate into a full-scale war. The Kargil conflagration is perhaps a classic case of how the knowledge of the “nuclear possession” kept the conflict limited to a series of tactical skirmishes.

Pessimists opine that deterrence theory failed when both locked horns over strategically vital peaks. However, it must be stressed that a 1965-like escalation was avoided, with the help of international intervention because both India and Pakistan had a nuclear device in their caches.

Nuclear capabilities do not rule out the occurrence of low-intensity conflicts, for they bring about a stability-instability paradox, wherein things remain stable at the higher end of the conflict spectrum. One could argue that nuclear weapons provided both states with a cushion to wrest control of Kargil through tactical engagements, but it also acted as an equalizer, which baulked nefarious designs. During the whole episode, the nuclear umbrella gave Pakistan much-needed psychological security as she felt less vulnerable to a 1971-like Indian onslaught. The events of 1971 were monumental in shaping Pakistan’s nuclear campaign.

International pressure prevailed on two other occasions. The first was in wake of Operation Parakram when after the parliament attacks, India amassed its forces on the International Border. Warmongering did not result in any physical engagement after the Mumbai attacks in 2008.

The success of “Nuclear Pakistan” in preventing a full-scale war can be evidenced by the fact that the incendiary forces which caused previous wars and battles still persist. To-date there are opportunities akin to those present in 1971 for India to capitalize upon. Moreover, if accusations are to be believed there exists a pre-1965 war situation. Indeed, the possession of an assured nuclear capability has changed the type of threat emanating from the eastern flank. The ongoing non-kinetic war must and cannot be labelled as a failure of deterrence theory, for Pakistan’s nuclear posture is intended to make the pursuance of a military option untenable for India to use against Pakistan.

Press Release

Rawalpindi- February 13 2017

Chief of Army Staff, General Qamar Javed Bajwa visited Strategic Plans Division today. He was received by Director General Strategic Plans Division, Lieutenant General Mazher Jamil and was given detailed briefing regarding various facets of Pakistan’s Strategic Programme.

COAS underlined the centrality of Pakistan’s Strategic Programme against a specific threat to our security. COAS lauded the efforts of Scientists and Engineers involved in the development programmes, which made Pakistan’s defence formidable. He highly appreciated operational preparedness and training standards of the Strategic Forces. He particularly expressed satisfaction on the comprehensive security regime of SPD.

STRATEGIC  PLANS DIVISION

Image result for pakistan strategic plans division

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pakistan officially maintains that it does not aim to attain nuclear parity with India and will continue with the Minimum Credible Deterrence. Minimum is not a number but refers to the acquisition of no more nuclear weapons than necessary to deter the adversary from launching a nuclear attack. Thus the word “minimum” is relative at best and hence Pakistan has to monitor and evaluate the developments across the border. The question that one needs to answer is whether Pakistan’s increasing stockpile is a rational policy? Is there a need to bolster means of second-strike and inducting long-range ballistic missiles in the scheme of things?

First, the development of a second-strike capability is central to deterrence. India, with a well developed second/counter strike capability and a greater geographical depth, had the propensity to withstand a surprise or a pre-emptive strike from Pakistan. However, Pakistan bereft of the very advantages would not have been able to thwart a retaliation. Thus, the addition of an assured second-strike capability is imperative to make deterrence credible. Second, the need for modernizing delivery systems is all the more important because of deterrence hooks upon the ability to make the enemy aware of the ability and the willingness to use the device if and when the need arises.

Eyebrows have been raised regarding two aspects of Pakistan’s nuclear program. One is the growth in the number of warheads whilst the other is concerned with the design of Tactical Nuclear Weapons.

As aforementioned, deterrence is more effective when a country has adequate second-strike prowess.The number game hence becomes all the more important especially given the threats posed to CMD by India’s ever-increasing economic and technological muscle. Second-strike elicits its strength of the “residual” capacity hence Pakistan can feel relatively safer by the mere accumulation of warheads before making them more credible. The quantum has gained currency especially after India’s deployment of the Ballistic Missile Defense System. Albeit in a rudimentary stage, the likelihood of intercepting Pakistan’s main delivery vehicles can greatly undermine the efficacy of Credible Minimum Deterrence. India’s BMD is likely to undermine Pakistan’s retaliatory capacity but a greater amount of warheads can reduce the precision of India’s Ballistic Missile Defense.

In sum, India’s grandiose aspirations and the initiatives taken to augment her military muscle, coupled with Pakistan’s limitations necessitate the latter to add to its deterrence value. This is being rightly done by not only focusing on credibility and survivability but also on the quantum of warheads. This is in-line with Pakistan’s quest to provide for her own security in an environment dictated by anarchy and self-help. Perhaps, it is pertinent to quote Waltz once more amidst doubts about the perils of a “Nuclear Pakistan”.

“If a country has nuclear weapons, it will not be attacked militarily in ways that threaten its manifestly vital interests. That is 100 percent true, without exception, over a period of more than fifty years.”

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