ISLAMABAD: This capital city is buzzing with all kinds of news, rumours, speculation, wild conspiracy theories, whispered warnings, big boasts, all at the same time. In all drawing rooms and cool lawns and terraces of the palatial homes spread inside the city, Chak Shahzad, Bani Gala and all the way to Murree, curious news and info hunters are gathering every night to update on what is happening and what may happen, on a day-to-day basis.
Arriving here after almost a year and for the first time since the Nawaz government came in, the timing could not have been better for a newsman who is desperate to have the feel and pulse of the power corridors; how confident are the rulers; how comfortable are the others; what plans are being made; what attacks and counter attacks may be possible.
The first impression is that the media it seems has become a focal point and I was almost frightened to realise that some of us are almost behaving or have even become power players.
The day I arrived there was a marriage party in the hotel I was staying in and when I came down in the lobby, almost every body who is any body in the country was rushing to attend. I met so many old friends and acquaintances in one hour that may not have been possible in weeks. The army chief, chairman joint chiefs of staff, ISI chief, several ex-ISI chiefs, at least three ex-prime ministers, many ex-CMs, scores of ministers from all parties, politicians, businessmen and bureaucrats of the highest level, allwere there. I only missed Mian Nawaz Sharif, some of his high profile leaders and Imran Khan.
But what frightened me more was that the issues grabbing attention of all were not what Pakistan needs to focus at this critical environment, both internal/regional and international.For instance the Musharraf case took the most time. The buzz I heard from the military side was that a script had been written after a well-thought-out plan and that included the admission of Mama Musharraf in a Sharjah hospital.
Since the khakis were feeling embarrassed with the unfortunate transformation of their prized hospital into a 5-star hotel for just one guest and the growing unrest in the rank and file about Mushy’s fate, the chief in Pindi had taken upon himself that he will “handle the matter”. The script included details to the last point, what would happen and where, and all sides, repeat all sides were on board. Everything went as planned but someone blinked at the fag end when the matter would have ended as everyone had agreed. It caused a lot of nervousness.
Hawks on both sides took over and while the khakis showed their concerns by asking for urgent consultations with the PM and flew to the PM house in a chopper with some commanders, the PML side took to the media and blasted Mush. A grim tug-of-war continued with positions getting stiff by the hour. The ultimate confirmation of the psy-games came just a day later when Mush was slipped out of the AFIC in the early hours of the new day, without even the local police being informed.
Someone had taken the decision to carry out the shift on his own authority. A symbolic explosion also took place after the event, may be just as a reminder. In an unprecedented move Mush’s farmhouse was declared as a sub-hospital, sort of a sub-jail under army control.
The Musharraf saga is a work in progress and both issues of principle and egos are driving the events. Government leaders concede that Mian Sahib is the biggest hawk and is not in a mood to compromise. That is seen by many as an ego issue. But the other side and many think tank type, retired and even serving, people think it is more important and getting serious by the day, rather by the hour.
One four-star ex-bureaucrat, who says he had predicted four previous coup d’etats by the army, smells somewhat familiar fumes. A four-star ex-khaki thinks the episode of General Jahangir Karamat could be repeated if things are not controlled at this stage. “A chief with diminished respect in his cadres and ranks will find it hard to fight the real enemies within and outside,” he argues.
Even friendly countries have quietly suggested to Islamabad that this issue should be “handled with care”. “I know that Saudi Arabia, UAE, China, US and even Turkey’s Erdogan have given their sincere advice on this issue,” the four-star revealed. He even stated that Erdogan cautioned Mian Nawaz Sharif not to follow the Turkish example, as Pakistan was not yet ready for that experiment.
A US diplomat had to break up a juicy dinner with a minister suddenly to inform his government that Mush had been stopped from going away. It was such a key development for him, meaning that Washington too was expecting something different.
Leaving Musharraf aside, what bothers me more is the apparent insensitivity to the growing threats all around the country which need some sane, experienced to the hilt people to sit and plan for the loaded freight trains that are heading towards us from all sides.
A top bureaucrat of the Track-2 type explained that Afghanistan is a big question mark and Pakistani political leadership and the army have to be on the same page with well thought out plans and strategies to meet any situation.
Iran he said had warned us on problems they were facing from our side.
India was moving into the Modi mode, which means more use of muscle and hustle. “Please don’t invite Modi if he wins on his first day,” the expert advised the Sharif government. “We embarrassed ourselves enough with invitations to Manmohan Singh who would never have come anyway.”
But another expert in foreign relations who was watching the trilateral meeting between US, China and Pakistan on Afghanistan, held in China recently, gave a very grave picture. He said China had asked Pakistan to clear its uncontrolled areas from the elements and fighters who were attacking China. “Unless this is done, all these big talks of North-South corridors, motorways, dams and what not, will never materialise. The Chinese are damn serious about this,” the diplomat said.
Likewise, he said, the 12-member US team, (including top State Department oldies and current guys and diplomats who have stayed in Pakistan) in the China Track-2 talks and the Chinese Foreign Ministry-sponsored team pressed on Pakistan that India will have to be an actor on the Afghan stage. The Iranians have to be handled properly. The Qatar-Saudi infighting requires men who know how to duck such flying arrows.
So when I look at the team handling these very grave matters of national and security consequences for the country it gives me shudders. The way the defence minister of the country speaks for hours about a retired and fallen general may be good politics for him and his party, but I never heard him talk about the scenario developing in Afghanistan, Iran, China, India and in places where Pakistan’s defence faces serious challenges. In fact we have no fulltime defence minister.
Likewise the foreign ministry people are fighting their turf wars, three are visible, instead of focusing on what should be the short, medium and long-term strategy. Some baboos may be doing the homework quietly but that may be all.
When I put this serious question to a four-star expert in military matters and whether his side was prepared for all these grave challenges, his responses were also depressing. “Our new leadership also has to learn a lot as there may be lack of experience in these matters of international relations, strategic thinking and forward looking visions.”
“The problem is that those who have experience and know-how and who can handle these matters do not have any clout with the government or in the corridors of power,” he said. “Those who have the clout don’t know a thing about these matters.”
So the growing gulf between the political and military establishment is a matter of serious concern and God knows who and how this will be handled.
One suggestion was that we should immediately have a foreign minister but on top of that we must have a national security adviser who knows the ins and outs of international diplomacy; who can educate the political rulers, talk to world leaders and also calm down the khakis when needed. “Not another Husain Haqqani,” a four-star warned.
