Nuclear
In the mid-1970s, Pakistan took the uranium enrichment route to acquiring a nuclear weaponscapability under the direction of A.Q. Khan. By the mid-1980s, Pakistan had a clandestine uraniumenrichment facility, and Khan would later assert that the country had acquired the capability to assemble a first-generation nuclear device as early as 1984. [1] Shortly after India’s testing series in May 1998, Islamabad conducted its own nuclear tests and declared itself a nuclear weapon state. Pakistan is not a party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). The country has also refused to sign the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), and has blocked consensus at the Conference on Disarmament on starting negotiations for a Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty (FMCT). [2] According to estimates by the International Panel on Fissile Materials (IPFM) in 2013, Pakistan has accumulated a stockpile of 3 ± 1.2 tons of highly enriched uranium (HEU) and 0.15 ± 0.05 tons of weapon-grade plutonium. [3] Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is increasing, but the scope and pace of this growth is uncertain. Open source estimates predict that Pakistan will have between 220-250 warheads by the year 2025. [4]
Biological
Pakistan signed the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC) in April 1972 and ratified it in 1974. In 2015, the US State Department found that there was no indication that Pakistan was out of compliance with its BTWC commitments. [5] Like many states, Pakistan possesses significant dual-use biotechnology capabilities, including well-equipped laboratories and trained scientists.
Chemical
Pakistan signed the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) in 1993 and ratified the treaty in 1997. In December 2013, the Pakistani representative to the OPCW stated that “Pakistan remains opposed to the use of chemical weapons by anyone under any circumstances, and finds it totally unacceptable.” [6] Pakistan is not listed in the US State Department’s Condition 10 (C) Report. [7]
Missile
Pakistan is developing both solid- and liquid-fueled ballistic missiles, based extensively on foreign systems, including those from China and North Korea. Nuclear-capable ballistic missiles inducted by Pakistan into its strategic forces include the Ghaznavi (Hatf-3, range 400km); the Shaheen-I (Hatf-4, range 750 km); and the Ghauri (Hatf-5, range 1,200 km). [8] Missiles under development include the Shaheen-II (Hatf-6, range 2,000 km); the Shaheen-IA (an upgraded Hatf-4, range 2,500-3,000km); and the Nasr (Hatf-9, range 60 km), a short-range missile with the stated capability to “add deterrence value… at shorter ranges.” [9] Pakistan successfully tested the Abdali (Hatf-2, range 180 km) on 15 February 2013, and Shaheen I on 10 April 2013, reportedly improving the missile’s design and increasing range to 900 km. [10] In November 2013 and September 2014 the Army successfully test fired the Hatf-9 (Nasr) BSRBM. [11] Pakistan last tested the Ghaznavi in April and May 2014, the Shaheen-II in Novermber 2014, and the Ghauri in April 2015. On 9 March 2015, Islamabad test-fired a Shaheen-III MRBM with a range of 2,750 km. [12]
In addition to ballistic missiles, cruise missiles are increasingly part of Pakistan’s nuclear delivery plans, including the ground-launched Babur (Hatf-7, range 600 km), and the air-launched Ra’ad (Hatf-8, range 350 km). Pakistan last tested the Ra’ad ALCM in February 2015, but has not tested the Barbur since 2012. [13] The LAM, Pakistan’s first sea-launched missile, will also be an important development to monitor in the future, as it could lay the foundation for a Naval-based second strike capability.
Sources:
[1] “Interview with Abdul Qadeer Khan,” The News (Islamabad), 30 May 1998, http://nuclearweaponarchive.org.
[2] “Pakistan Rules Out Test Ban Treaty Endorsement,” Global Security Newswire, 19 June 2009, www.nti.org; and “Statement by Ambassador Zamir Akram, Permanent Representative of Pakistan at the Conference on Disarmament (CD),” Geneva, 27 August 2009, www.reachingcriticalwill.org.
[3] “Countries: Pakistan,” International Panel on Fissile Materials, 3 February 2013, www.fissilematerials.org.
[4] “Weapons: Who Has What at a Glance,” Arms Control Association, June 2014, www.armscontrol.org; Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris, “Pakistan’s Nuclear Forces, 2015,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, November 2015, www.thebulletin.org.
[5] US Department of State, “2015 Report on Adherence to and Compliance With Arms Control, Nonproliferation, and Disarmament Agreements and Commitments,” 5 June 2015, www.state.gov.
[6] Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, “Statement by H.E. Mr. Moazzam Ahmad Khan- Permanent Representative of the OPCW to Pakistan, at the Eighteenth Session of the Conference of the States Parties,” C-18/NAT.9, 3 December 2013, www.opcw.org.
[7] US Department of State, “Compliance With the Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production, Stockpiling and Use of Chemical Weapons and on Their Destruction Condition 10(C) Report,” 15 April 2015, www.state.gov.
[8] Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris, “Pakistan’s Nuclear Forces, 2011,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol. 67 No. 4, July/August 2011, http://bos.sagepub.com; “Pakistan Successfully Test-Fires Hatf-IV Ballistic Missile,” DAWN (Pakistan), 25 April 2012, http://dawn.com; “Press Release No PR98/2012-ISPR,” Inter Services Public Relations, 25 April 2012, www.ispr.gov.pk.
[9] “Press Release No PR94/2011-ISPR,” Inter Services Public Relations, 19 April 2011, www.ispr.gov.pk; “Pakistan Successfully Test-Fires Hatf-IV Ballistic Missile,” DAWN (Pakistan), 25 April 2012, http://dawn.com; “Pak Tests Nuclear-Capable Short Range Hatf-IX Missile,” Indian Express, 29 May 2012, www.indianexpress.com.
[10] “Pakistan Successfully Test Fires Hatf-II Abdali Missile,” Geo TV News, 15 February 2013
[11] Shakil Shaikh, “Pakistan Test-Fires Hatf-IX,” The News International, 20 April 2011; “Pakistan test-fires short range missile Hatf IX,” The Times of India, 26 September 2014, http://timesofindia.com.
[12] “Shaheen 3 Missile Test,” Inter Services Public Relations, Press Release No PR61/2015-ISPR, 9 March 2015, www.ispr.gov.pk; Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris, “Pakistan’s Nuclear Forces, 2015,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, November 2015, www.thebulletin.org.
[13] Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris, “Pakistan’s Nuclear Forces, 2011,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol. 67 No. 4, July/August 2011, http://bos.sagepub.com; Rahul Udoshi and James Hardy, “Pakistan Tests Ra’ad ALCM,” Jane’s 360, 02 February 2015, www.janes.com, www.geo.tv; “Pakistan Conducts Successful Launch of Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile,” BBC Worldwide Monitoring, 10 April 2013, www.lexisnexis.com..
