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Indo-Pakistan & Indo-China flare-up

Indo-Pakistan & Indo-China flare-up

Part-1

Asif Haroon Raja

Indo-Pakistan antagonism

India and Pakistan became independent countries in 1947 but India till to-date has not reconciled to Pakistan’s existence. Kashmir which was left behind by the outgoing British as an unfinished agenda of Partition has remained a bone of contention and has bedeviled their relations. India has been defying UN resolutions giving right of self-determination to the Kashmiris on one pretext or the other for the last 72 years. Each and every Pakistani leader extended a hand of friendship but was spurned by India.

The already tense and strained relations between the two arch rivals flared up after India blatantly abrogated Articles 370 and 35A of Indian Constitution on 5 August and made the disputed Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK) integral part of India. Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) and Ladakh were declared as the two newly created Indian Union Territories.

What it implied was conversion of Line of Control (LoC) in J&K and Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh into permanent borders. Both Pakistan and China rejected India’s claim saying it is in complete disregard of the UN resolutions and international and bilateral agreements. New Delhi, however, hastened to state that the new arrangement didn’t affect the status of LAC with China.

Fascist and Hindutva loving Narendra Modi couldn’t have gambled to take this perilous step to annoy two nuclear powers in its immediate neighborhood without a wink from USA and Israel, both having their axes to grind. He had already taken on board Arab Gulf States.

Modi couldn’t have locked down 9 million Kashmiris in IOK for 10 months and subjected them to horrendous oppression without the support of his patrons. Promulgation of anti-Muslim Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and NRC law in December 2019 followed by new domicile law to change the demography of Muslim dominated IOK were part of the bigger design.

Megalomaniac Modi’s madness didn’t end here. India’s civil and military leaders started hurling threats of annexing Azad J&K (AJK) and Gilgit-Baltistan (GB). A new map was circulated showing AJK-GB part of India, and Aksai Chin in occupation of China, as part of Ladakh. Taking into account the Indian force level of 950,000 regular and paramilitary forces in IOK, the threats carried weight.

The chain of events taking place in quick succession following the subjugation of IOK were part of the overall game plan conceived by Indo-US-Israeli nexus to place India at a higher pedestal in the region.   

Reasons which impelled Modi to initiate risk-filled acts:

  • Pakistan couldn’t be denuclearized; conversely, it managed to keep its missile and nuclear programs safe and secure and further fortified them.
  • Plans to bleed, demoralize and exhaust Pak Army and paramilitary forces through massive covert war backfired and the Army emerged more strong and robust.
  • Billions of dollars spent on the proxies and propaganda war to destabilse and discredit Pakistan were washed out after Pak Army, Frontier Corps and Sindh Rangers managed to break the spine of foreign funded terrorist groups operating in FATA, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Baluchistan and urban Sindh.
  • Fencing of western border and now the southern border on fast track by Pak Army have given a lethal blow to RAW-NDS sponsored cross border terrorism from Afghanistan and Iran.
  • Afghanistan where India has invested $ 3 billion so as to consolidate its influence and to pose a twin threat to Pakistan’s security has almost slipped out of its hands since Taliban’s return to power is a foregone conclusion.
  • Noting the ever rising fervor of freedom movement in IOK, it had become clear that sooner than latter Kashmir, which India had illegally annexed in October 1947, will breakaway. 700,000 occupation forces deployed in the Kashmir Valley since 1990 couldn’t extinguish the flame of liberty. This was exceedingly worrisome for Indian leadership.
  • Unlike the pliant regimes of PPP and PML-N that could be easily swayed or pressured by US and India, the incumbent regime led by Imran Khan is not pursuing an outright policy of appeasement, and is repeatedly naming Modi regime as fascist and racist regime which is anti-peace with expansionist designs.
  • CPEC which is the flagship project of China’s Belt-and-Road-Initiative (BRI) has shaken the global ambitions of USA, Israel and India wanting to dominate the world. CPEC has not only welded together China and Pakistan as iron brothers, but has opened avenues for China to become the leading economic power of the world and for Pakistan to become self-reliant. This is unacceptable to the Indo-US-Israel nexus.
  • The US is desperate to pullout from Afghanistan safely where it spent over $2 trillion without achieving any of its objectives. It is also keen to retain a toehold in the country, or else establish a military base in the near vicinity. Ladakh as a base fits the bill wherefrom it can easily monitor China, Iran, Pakistan and Middle East. The three strategic partners are nurturing this wish.
  • Failing to subdue Pakistan through bloody proxy war, low intensity conflict along the LoC, and water terrorism, and then failing to disrupt development of CPEC through acts of terrorism, or to spoil China-Pakistan relations through propaganda war, India schemed to absorb whole of J&K in two or three phases in line with Gen Bipen Rawat’s policy of limited war.
  • GB has more value for India since its seizure is the only other way out left to block CPEC, which originates from Kashgar in China and enters Pakistan at Khunjarab in GB. Another sour point for India is Pakistan’s plan to build Diamir-Bhasha dam in GB as part of CPEC project, which will be detrimental to India’s plan to make Pakistan water scarce. India has built 24 water storage dams on three rivers flowing into Pakistan from IOK.
  • Allowing USA and Israel to establish military bases in Ladakh and making it a strong military garrison will not only ward off threat from China to Ladakh, but Ladakh will also provide shortest and only route to India to approach GB, scuttle CPEC, and pave way for taking back Aksai Chin.
  • With GB in the bag of India, Pakistan-China contiguity will get dislocated.
  • Another possible reason of abrogating the special status of IOK was to provoke Pakistan to launch an offensive across the LoC, as it had provoked Gen Yahya to declare war against India on the western front on 3 December 1971, thereby allowing India to once again declare Pakistan an aggressor and itself a victim of aggression, and after gaining sympathies of the world, launch counter offensive in GB-AJK.
  • Last but not least, both the US and Israel have been baiting and goading India to lock horns with both Pakistan and China by playing upon boastful India’s penchant to become a global power. Both have been milking India by selling most expensive armaments.

India calculatedly upped the ante

With these considerations in view, India first carried out a false flag operation in Pathankot on 14 February 2019, in which 40 Indian CRPF soldiers were sacrificed. India backed by USA and some European nations promptly blamed Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM) and Pakistan. Purpose was to garner Hindu votes for Modi’s re-election in May 2019 by fomenting war hysteria against Pakistan, defaming Kashmiri freedom struggle, preparing grounds for blacklisting Pakistan by FATF, and above all creating justification for launching a surgical strike.

On 22 February, twelve Indian Mirage-2000 took part in the air intrusion on an imaginary hideout of JeM in Balakot to avenge the deaths of Indian soldiers. Vigilance and forceful chase by PAF jets forced the intruders to fly back in panic and hastily drop 3 Israeli supplied Spike missiles in a deserted hillock causing no damage.

Pakistan’s befitting response

Although Indian mission was a complete failure, PAF gave a befitting response on the night of 26 February. The attacking jets locked three high value targets (Command HQ, Brigade HQ, ammunition dump) deep inside IOK, but under the policy of restraint, hit vacant areas in close vicinity of intended targets. Gen Rawat survived by the skin of his teeth, but a loud message was conveyed not to mess with nuclear Pakistan.

These strikes were followed by an air duel on 27th morning in which PAF jets struck down one Su-30 flown by Israeli pilot and one MiG-21 flown by Wing Commander Abhinandan of IAF and captured the latter after he ejected. Another Indian helicopter with its crew was downed by panicky Indian air defence.

Pakistan also responded to India’s plan to strike 8 targets inside Pakistan by Brahmo cruise missiles by deploying its missiles to hit 16 Indian cities. It took the heat out of Indian jingoism and temporarily broke the escalating cycle of violence.

Amalgamation of IOK by India

Notwithstanding the series of humiliating setbacks suffered by India, Modi’s re-election once again pumped him up to implement his fascist agenda which he couldn’t accomplish in his first term.

What encouraged ultra-supremacist Modi to change the status of IOK, maintain aggressive posture along the LoC in J&K, to continue brutally oppressing Kashmiris in IOK in contravention of 4th Geneva Convention, refuse to lift curfew in spite of the Covid-19 and mounting world pressure was his hope that he will be able to deflate the spirits of freedom fighters in 4-6 months by killing Kashmiri leaders, putting young boys in torture cells, raping women, jailing all political leaders, closing down their shops and businesses, and disrupting phones, TV and internet.

The other reason which comforted him was the raised troop level to 9,50,000, enabling Indian Northern Command (INC) to enforce lockdown with impunity, maintain defensive balance and have sufficient forces for offensives in GB and AJK at an opportune time.

While snatching the special status of IOK, Modi either discounted the Chinese factor, or was assured by his benefactors that China would not react due to its contracting economy for the first time in last 40 years, brewing tension in South China Sea, USA backed Taiwan reiterating its independent status, trade war with USA, the US recognizing Tibet as independent state, Trump blaming China for spreading Covid-19, and threatening to cut all ties, CIA sponsored protests of liberals in Hong Kong (HK) funded by National Endowment for Democracy based in Washington, and Trump’s pledge to revoke special status of HK in reaction to new extradition bill for criminals promulgated by Beijing.

 

 

Map Courtesy:Pakistan Defence

 

 

What emboldened Modi to absorb IOK was Pakistan’s frail economic conditions together with internal political polarization. He saw it as an opportunity to exploit and seize the moment. 

The other possibility that cannot be ruled out is that in case current corona pandemic is US inspired and was China centric, it would have been assumed by the trio that China would be too engrossed in fighting the virus and will have little heart for any external adventure.

The US having declared China as its number one enemy is otherwise clamoring to emasculate China by stunting its economic and military growth through pampered India bloated as a counterweight to China and pivot of Indo-Pacific region.

With Ladakh under its belt, it became easier for Indian INC to execute a military operation in GB and annex if not whole, at least part of it through which CPEC passes. There would be still enough forces to undertake one main and two auxiliary efforts in AJK.

Indian military had stepped into Siachin Glacier in 1984 with an eye on GB and to monitor Karakorum Highway. RAW has been using that platform to stir political trouble in GB with the help of Balwaristan movement.

To undertake an offensive in GB, Indian military speeded up construction of 260 km long road along Shyok River to connect it with Daulat Beg Oldie (DBO) near Karakorum Pass in last October under the plea that it was well inside the LAC. DBO, situated 8 miles away from Karakorum Pass was upgraded from a company-size post into a brigade-size military garrison with an airbase in 2019. This is what alarmed and spurred China to defeat India’s dangerous designs before it was too late.  

To be continued

Author

Brig.Gen(Retd)Asif Haroon Raja

The writer is a retired Brig, war veteran, former Defence Attaché’ and Dean of Corps of Military Attaches’ in Cairo, defence & security analyst, international columnist, author of five books, Chairman Thinkers Forum Pakistan, Director Measac Research Center, Member CWC PESS and of Veterans Think Tank, and Member Council TJP. asifharoonraja@gmail.com  

 

To be continued

 

The writer is a retired Brig, war veteran, former Defence Attaché’ and Dean of Corps of Military Attaches’ in Cairo, defence & security analyst, international columnist, author of five books, Chairman Thinkers Forum Pakistan, Director Measac Research Center, Member CWC PESS and of Veterans Think Tank, and Member Council TJP. asifharoonraja@gmail.com  

 

 

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CAN PAKISTAN’S MISSILE RENDER INDIA’S CONVENTIONAL ARMY USELESS?

Kashmiris in Indian Jails

May 28: Pakistan Became Declared Nuclear Power

By

Sajjad Shaukat

 

Showing aggressive designs against Pakistan, on May 11, 1998, India conducted three nuclear tests and on May 13, 1998, two nuclear tests.

 

Notably, both the countries have waged three wars, especially on the issue of the Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK). Therefore, in response, Pakistan successfully carried out its five nuclear tests on May 28, 1998 and the sixth one on May 30, 1998.

 

In this regard, it took only 17 days for Pakistan to successfully carry out its five nuclear tests on May 28, 1998 and the sixth one on May 30, 1998, at Chaghi in Balochistan. For the purpose, about five thousands scientists including Dr Samar Mubarakmand and particularly Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan had worked day and night and made the defence of the country impregnable.

 

Therefore, with national zeal and fervour in different parts of the country, Youm-e-Takbeer (The day of greatness) is celebrated every year on May 28 as the national day to mark the conduction of nuclear tests.

 

It is noteworthy that in 1974, India conducted first nuclear test in Rajasthan Pokhran to pressurise Islamabad.

 

When Zulfikar Ali Bhutto came to power, he paid much attention to the nuclear programme, as he knew that India would apply its coercive diplomacy on Islamabad or could attack Pakistan.

 

Meanwhile, during many crises such as Kargil issue of 1999 and attack on the Indian parliament by the militants in 2001, New Delhi concentrated its troops across the Pakistan’s border, with the intention to invade Pakistan, while raising a series of false allegations against Islamabad. Pakistan was also compelled to deploy its Army along the Pak-India border. But, India did not dare to initiate a war because of Pakistan’s ‘Nukes.’ Similarly, in the past, Indian rulers had intended to implement their doctrine of limited war in Kashmir, but they could not do so owing to Pakistan’s atomic weapons.

 

And in the aftermath of false flag Mumbai terror attacks of 2008, India accused Pakistan’s primary spy agency ISI of supporting the militants. Although Pak diplomats denied Indian self-fabricated story, but New Delhi adopted a threatening posture against Islamabad. Once again, it deployed its troops across the Pakistani border. Again, Pakistan also concentrated its military to give a matching response to India.

Likewise, in the aftermath of the false flag terror of Pulwama, very tension escalated rapidly between the two countries on February 27, 2019. In response to the Indian so-called pre-emptive air strike near the town of Balakot, close to the border with Pakistan’s sector of Kashmir, Pakistan Air Force (PAF) shot down two Indian Air Force (IAF) fighter jets and launched aerial strikes at six targets in the (IOK). Pak Army also captured an Indian pilot.

 

The truth about India’s surgical strikes exposed, when Indian top civil and military leaders failed in providing any evidence. The then Indian India’s External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj also demitted that no Pakistani soldier or citizen died in the air strike in Balakot.

 

Nevertheless, after the Pulwama assault, India tried to make ground for a prospective invasion of Pakistan. But, it failed in acting upon its plans to wage a conventional war due to Pakistan’s atomic weapons.

 

In fact, since Narendara Modi, the leader of the ruling party BJP, became Indian Prime Minister; he has been implementing ideology of Hindutva (Hindu Nationalism) by persecuting the Muslims and creating war-hysteria among the Hindus against Pakistan.

 

In this respect, Indian extremist rulers’ various moves such as abrogation of the special status of the Jammu and Kashmir to turn Muslim majority into minority in the Indian Held Kashmir, continued lockdown in that region, martyrdom of thousands of the Kashmiris there, issuance of a notorious map to bifurcate the Kashmir region into two union territories and introduction of new domicile law against the majority of Kashmiris, including continued shelling by the Indian forces show that New Delhi has completely ended any sort of dialogue with Islamabad to settle the Kashmir dispute.

 

Now, the entire world is facing the coronavirus pandemic which has, rapidly, been taking the lives of many persons. At this crucial juncture, international community is coping with this deadly virus. But, under the guise of coronavirus, India has politicised the COVID-19 epidemic by accusing the Indian Muslims and Pakistan for spreading the virus in India. Availing the opportunity, Indian rulers have imposed various kinds of restrictions on the Muslims, while Hindu extremists have set off a series of assaults against Muslims across the country.

 

In this connection, DG of Inter-services Public Relations (ISPR) Maj-Gen Babar Iftikhar said on April 24, this year: “Chief of Army Staff General Qamar Javed Bajwa stated…India’s attempt to link coronavirus with Muslims and Pakistan has failed badly…New Delhi has been promoting Hindutva and saffron terrorism…The fire of hatred which was first ignited in Indian-Occupied Kashmir has now spread across India…the whole world is facing the crises due to the coronavirus pandemic…India is still adamant on promoting RSS agenda in the region”.

 

In its reaction to the Indian 15-Corps Command interview with BBC on April 13, 2020,  Maj-Gen Babar Iftikhar termed India’s insinuation about infiltration and ceasefire violations (CFVs) “baseless” and elaborated that they were “designed to divert global and domestic attention from the “unending fiasco…No less delusional are the allegations about Pakistan infiltrating COVID-affected individuals into IOJK”.

 

Referring to the LoC, in a statement, ISPR pointed out on April 29, this year, “A Pakistan Army soldier and two civilians embraced martyrdom when Indian Army resorted to unprovoked ceasefire violations along the Line of Control…Pakistan Army responded effectively, resulting in heavy losses to Indian troops, Chief of Army Staff General Qamar Javed Bajwa said the Indian Army will always get a befitting response to ceasefire violations…The Indian forces along the LoC and the Working Boundary have been continuously targeting civilian populated areas with artillery fire, heavy-caliber mortars…India has committed 913 ceasefire violations this year”.

 

It is mentionable that Indian Defence Rajnath Singh on August 16, 2014 had threatened Pakistan with nuclear war, while BJP leader Dr. Subramaniam Swami had also stated in the same year that India needed only two years to defeat Pakistan militarily, and the only solution of Kashmir was war, as “there is no peaceful, democratic solution”.

 

Taking cognizance of Indian war-like diplomacy, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan and Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi has, repeatedly, been stating to inform the international community and the UNO that New Delhi can arrange any Pulwama-type false flag operation to carry out another military adventure inside Pakistani side of Kashmir—and any conventional war between both the countries could result into atomic war, having “severe repercussions, if they “silently witness ethnic cleansing of Muslims in IOK… they have failed to implement the UN resolutions on Kashmir…[which] remains a nuclear flashpoint in the South Asian region”.

 

It is worth-mentioning that the US dropped atomic bombs on Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, as Tokyo had no such devices to retaliate. After the World War 11, nuclear weapons were never used. These were only employed as a strategic threat.

Indian Military Deployment [445 × 624] from MapPorn

Nonetheless, unlike the former Soviet Union and the US who followed the principles of nuclear deterrence, popularly known as balance of terror, war-like situation exists between New Delhi and Islamabad due to the perennial firing by the Indian forces across the LoC in wake of the unsettled issue of Kashmir. So, India’s any military adventure or a prolonged conventional conflict with Pakistan could culminate into nuclear war.

 

Moreover, it is owing to atomic bombs that Pakistan can talk to India with honour and dignity, discouraging India from casting an evil eye on our motherland.

 

However, May 28 is celebrated as Youm-e-Takbeer by all the segments of society, including general masses; as on this very day, Pakistan became the 7th declared nuclear power in the world.

 

 

 

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