Pakistan Facing Perfect Storm 

Expecting Threats to its Sovereignty in 2018

by

Dr Kausar Talat

Positive Pakistan

Ktalat.blogspot.com

Opinion Leader,

Pakistan Think Tank

January 1, 2018

A perfect storm is brewing in Pakistan since last 10 years involving political leaders, ruling parties along with many opposition leaders and businessmen. However, coming days in the first quarter of 2018 may see an intensity of this perfect storm when the 5^th generation warfare imposed on Pakistan by US-led India and Afghanistan insurgencies helped by Israeli Mossad and British MI-5 could have a final assault on the sovereignty of Pakistan.

Pakistan’s economic woes are increasing against the backdrop of political instability, the absence of foreign policy and fumbling on National Action Plan against terrorism are perfectly programmed for social disruption and distraction creating an opportunity for the outside adversarial forces active in the region to take advantage. Add in next year’s elections, and Pakistan could find itself in the midst of one of the most contentious periods since its independence.

Over two thousand years ago, the great Chinese military strategist Sun-Tzu (1993) wrote the following:

              “It is best to keep one’s own army, battalion, company, or five-man squad intact;

to crush the enemy’s army, battalion, company, or five-man squad is only a second best.

So, to win a hundred victories in hundred battles is not the highest excellence; the highest excellence is to subdue the enemy’s army without fighting at all” (Sun-Tzu, 1993, p. 111).

This is exactly the objective of the modern-day – 5^th generation war where land is not overrun, nor military boots occupy the ground but the institutions and economy are weakened systematically. Forces hostile to Pakistan are operating without restraint in the region as well as within Pakistan. Deliberate negligence in foreign policy, massive corruption on the economic front and indifference to the problems of the common man has reduced faith in the system and weakened the center. It all started with the passing of the 18^th amendment to the constitution, apparently giving freedom to provinces. This amendment has shaken the center to the point where federal government’s decisions are being challenged and delayed. A classic example is the National Action Plan against terrorism. Political expediencies, corruption and probably support from the outside forces interested in containing China made the National Action Plan inactive. Fortunately acting on the orders of Judiciary Pakistan Armed Forces were able to control the serious situation of law and order in Karachi and Baluchistan.  Further, an arrest of serving commander of Indian Navy unlocked connections of many political leaders backdoor relationship with India and Afghanistan and numerous sleeper cells in the country. Kul Bashan Jadhav, the terrorist acknowledges his work to sabotage CPEC, spread harassment and terrorize civilians as his objective and was in direct contact with his handler, Anil Kumar Dashmana who is heading Indian intelligence agency at present. Indian investment in Nawaz Sharif is so intense that on the disclosure of an arrest by ISI of terrorist Kul Bashan, Nawaz Sharif and his government has remained silent till today. It has now been revealed that Nawaz Sharif was in contact with Anil Kumar – RAW under the disguise of backdoor diplomacy. While all this was happening, official propaganda was on full throttle about the economy and progress.

Edward Bernays —- cousin of Sigmund Freud in his book Propaganda (1928), states that in almost every act of our daily lives, whether in the sphere of politics or business, in our social conduct or our ethical thinking, we are dominated by the relatively small number of persons…who understand the mental processes and social patterns of the masses. It is they who pull the wires which control the public mind. The conscious and intelligent manipulation of, history, facts, habits and opinions of the masses are important elements in controlling any society. Those who manipulate this unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government that becomes the dominant power in shaping policies of a nation… Today in Pakistan efforts are being made to mold our minds and values transformed, our vision getting blurred, our ideology hijacked by this invisible enemy with the support of local media such as GEO and the JANG group along with English media led by DAWN and The News plus NGOs and the so-called civil society of Pakistan in the name of democracy and gender rights. While all this is happening, rulers are trying to ditch the two-nation ideology, the basis of Pakistan’s existence. Please see by clicking:

                        VID-20160501-WA0001.mp4.

Pakistani nation at large is at a loss – confused resigned to nonstop decadence in society, degradation of institutions, the onslaught on traditions and values, the national ideology, the spread of immorality under the cover of gender equality. Print media is busy with their liberal agenda discussing women hygiene, women empowerment and rape test (see Dawn, The News, etc.  week of Dec. 18, 2017) as if all is well with an utter disregard of national security and regional affairs.  So-called leaders, instead of leading are busy defending themselves in courts and trying to secure their looted wealth while media is creating sensation through its talk shows and breaking news, corrupting and debasing national language through talk shows on behalf of Indian and Emirati business partners – welcome to the 5^th generation of cyber war’s final assault upon the sovereignty of Pakistan.

The stage is set, gunpowder is in place, mines are planted literally for the final assault on the sovereignty of the nuclear power, the second largest Muslim State of Pakistan and to impair the world’s best military. YES, during coming months – probably in the first quarter of 2018, Pakistan could confront an escalation of civic disruption through communal terrorism, planted fake news to spread harassment and despair among the general public. The economic recession combined with hopelessness nation can fall into the slump at a time when Pakistan’s military establishment needed the public support and vigilance the most. There may be a possibility of a ‘Black Swan’ event such as high terrorism, or an assassination of an important person that could plunge the nation into downheartedness. At this point, the nation loses faith and the will to resist the negative changes being imposed resigning to their fate. In another scenario, India may open up the battle-front in Kashmir or at Lahore border while Afghanistan squeezes Pakistan’s defence capability in the North West of Pakistan with Iran closing its borders and the US attacking via drones. These are possible scenarios and Pakistani intelligence is well aware of it. Deliberate inactive foreign policy, misconstrued, misjudged and corrupt economic decisions for years, along with  incompetent ambassadors and hyped up anti-state media is ready to play its role in an effort to capitulate Pakistan as a sovereign nation – all this in collaboration with the enemy to deny Pakistan of its nuclear arsenal and to damage the Pakistan military, demoralized its rank and file, strip off its confidence so that Pakistan cannot resist the ultimate ‘great game’ of imposing US-led Indian hegemony in the region. 

Will the above scenario succeed? Maybe, because of the foreign investment made by the enemy on our almost every political leader, specifically the ruling government. In collaboration with its foreign backers, Pakistani political leaders have been laying the ground-work through legislation, judicial changes, planting their cronies to the lowest level of bureaucracy to weaken the center who comes into play in case of resistance. I strongly believe that YES, the situation would take Pakistan to the brink BUT Pakistan Army and its intelligence along with active judiciary, which we have seen in 2^nd half of 2017 would put up a good fight to defend Pakistan’s ideology, its values and its sovereignty. Why do I think this way?

Because:

• Pakistanis are resilient, strong and understands internal and external challenges

• Pakistanis know and have enough self-confidence, initiative, and perseverance to find ways through a dark tunnel and emerge into the light.

• Pakistanis, today stay grounded in reality, do seek out reliable sources of news and information, and do not rush anymore to make quick judgments based on incomplete or inaccurate information.

• Pakistanis decision-making skills may have been impaired in times of extreme stress, but now being mature they seek advice from friends in need. That could be trusted Journalist, ISPR or leaders with sound judgement.

• Pakistanis are now seasoned in coping with their invisible enemy in the shape of talk shows, planted news and political hype.

• Pakistanis have lately avoided overreaction in an emotional way (Shia – Sunni differences) and are benefitting from thinking the incidences rationally and humanly with increased sensitivity and awareness of how they should be responding to an incidence.

• With our Armed Forces discipline, and keeping the Faith & Unity, Pakistan shall persevere to play critical role at the global stage

Today once again Pakistan finds itself at the epicentre not only by virtue of geography but also because of its history, religion, culture and ethnicity. Present and future conflicts in the Middle East are proving to be a tinderbox, and Pakistan finds itself to be a pivot, as the catalyst of conflict or perhaps a mediating influence. As a nuclear power, its geographic location, and Islamic identity project strong desire to assert itself on behalf of ummah at the global stage. The critical role of Pakistan as a factor in international stability and global politics shall become apparent by the end of 2018 soon after purging its corrupt rulers and finding its rightful place on the global stage in the context of Islamic identity.

Anyone hoping for the demise of Pakistan must look at its resilience after numerous major disarticulations in polity, power, and structure and still preserving its national identity – a phenomenon unmatched by any nation that can only be explained as supernatural or protected by Allah for the believers. In this respect, it stands as an exemplar of a nation whose adversities as “common sense” might suggest to make its viability impossible. Yet its continued existence defies the reality induced by speculations of Gandhi in the past and most recently projected by US secretary of state- Rex Tillerson and continuously unfulfilled desire of India. The enormity and persistence of these difficulties and the resilience of the nation in absorbing and surviving must be regarded with caution by its enemies if not with admiration.

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