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In search for security in the face of India’s belligerence and dangerous designs together with Afghanistan’s hostility, Pakistan blundered to join SEATO and CENTO in 1954 and earned the hostility of Afghanistan, former Soviet Union and China. India took these western pacts as an excuse to make a U turn on Kashmir issue.
The defense pacts helped Pakistan under Ayub Khan to develop its economy and defensive capability, but the pacts were designed to contain communism and not to provide security against India or to help in resolving Kashmir dispute. These pacts proved inconsequential during the wars with India in 1965 and 1971 and played no role in preventing truncation of Pakistan in 1971.
Despite the fact that Pakistan played a key role in the China-US détente in 1971, enabling USA to withdraw its forces from Vietnam, the US always kept India above Pakistan, knowingly that India was aligned with Soviet Union.
Supply of arms by the US and western countries to India after the Indo-Sino border clash in 1962 impelled Pakistan to lean on China since arms provided by the two rival camps had tilted the military balance in favor of India. This shift irked USA.
Pakistan again blundered to let the US make FATA a launching pad and use Jihadis as proxies to fight Soviet forces in Afghanistan in 1980s in return for $3.5 billion economic/military assistance spread over 5 years. Although the Jihad directed by the ISI achieved its goal of ousting the Soviets from Afghanistan, but Pakistan had to suffer at the hands of [sgmb id=”2″]nexus as well as that of Al-Zulfiqar throughout the 10-year war.
The Afghan Jihad gifted Pakistan with drug and Kalashnikov cultures which militarized the society and intensified sectarianism. It also bred misgivings in Pak-Iran relations.
Instead of rewarding Pakistan for the huge price it paid to defeat a super power and for paving the way for the US to become sole super power, it was not only left high and dry by self-serving USA but also punished for pursuing nuclear program, which it had ignored till 1989, by imposing harsh sanctions in 1990. Worst was Indo-US embrace in 1991 followed by Indo-Israel alignment, giving shape to Indo-US-Israel axis, which raised the specter of Islamic bomb.
Sanctions under Jewish AIPAC inspired Pressler Amendment weakened Pakistan’s economy, multiplied its debt, impacted the democratic era (1988-1999) and handicapped Pakistan to combat fallout effects of Afghan war.
The only positive outcome of the bloody war was the completion of nuclear program under Gen Ziaul Haq, which was otherwise not possible. It raised the stature of Pakistan among the Muslim world. Fear of bomb in the basement prevented India under Rajiv Gandhi from converting Indian Exercise Brass-tacks into full-fledged war in 1986/87. Likewise, war over Kashmir in 1990/91 in the wake of armed uprising in Indian occupied Kashmir was also averted due to nuclear factor. Benazir rather than fulfilling American agenda of rolling back nuclear program enhanced missile program.
In the First Gulf War in 1991, while Egypt got its $7 billion external debt waived off without deploying a single soldier, as a reward for legitimizing the US-NATO intervention in the Gulf, Pakistan got nothing despite deploying over 10,000 troops in Saudi Arabia because of the then Army chief’s pro-Saddam statements which annoyed Saudi Arabia and USA.
Pakistan’s support to the Taliban from 1996 till September 2001 antagonized Northern Alliance (an amalgam of non-Pashtun Afghans under Ahmad Shah Masood) and brought them under the influence of Iran, India, West and Russia.
Pakistan once again blundered after 9/11 by ditching friendly regime of Taliban in Afghanistan at the behest of Washington and befriending untrustworthy USA that had left Pakistan in a lurch during its testing times.
Pakistan learnt no lesson from the repeated betrayals and happily accepted all the demands of USA under the fond hope that this time it will not deceive and will compensate for its past wrongs by making Pakistan prosperous in return for fighting the US imposed war on terror on its soil. But the US had a fixed agenda of disabling Pakistan’s nuclear program covertly, separating Baluchistan and making Pakistan a secular state. Gen Musharraf and not Pakistan was made the darling of the west.
Pakistan after earning the animosity of Taliban on account of its full support to the US to occupy Afghanistan also antagonized the tribesmen of FATA when the Army launched an operation in South Waziristan (SW) in 2003 at the bidding of USA to flush-out Al-Qaeda and its supporters.
Pakistani Taliban started a guerrilla war against the Army and in December 2007 formed Tehrik-Taliban-Pakistan (TTP) under Baitullah Mehsud with tentacles in all the seven agencies of FATA.
The Afghan Taliban and Pakistani Taliban believing in one ideology are in collusion and pursue shared goal of establishing Islamic Emirate. The two entities had however divided their areas of responsibility; Taliban confining their fight in Afghanistan against occupying forces and their collaborators and the TTP fighting against Pak security forces. Their partner Al-Qaeda remained operative on both sides of the divide. Haqqani network aligned with Taliban headquartered itself in North Waziristan (NW) and remained friendly toward Pakistan till their ouster in June 2014.
The TTP was hijacked by foreign agencies in its formative years and was heavily funded, equipped and trained to fight Pak Army and to convert Swat, Bajaur, SW and NW into fortresses.
Annoyed by Musharraf regime’s decision to impose ban and freeze funds in 2002/03, Kashmir focused Jihadi groups and other militant groups veered towards TTP. By 2013, an amalgam of over 60 militant groups had come under the wings of Hakimullah led TTP in NW.
TTP leaders had pledged allegiance to Taliban supreme leader Mulla Omar in 2008 and had accepted him as Ameerul Momineen. Their pledge remained intact till mid 2014 after which many pledged allegiance to ISIS leader Abu Bakar Baghdadi since they had got a wind of death of Mulla Omar in April 2013 which was intentionally kept secret.
Syria-Iraq based ISIS has made inroads in Afghanistan with the help of India and has established itself at Nangarhar and is in collusion with Khalid Omer Khurasani led Jamaat-e-Ahrar, an offshoot of TTP and with Fazlullah. The two had fled from Mohmand Agency and Swat to Afghanistan after the military operation Rah-e-Rast in 2009. Fazlullah was nominated Ameer of TTP after the death of Hakimullah in early 2014.
Operation Zarb e Azb launched in June 2014 succeeded in pushing out all militant groups including HN from their last stronghold in NW. All the runaway TTP leaders and fighters have been given sanctuaries by NDS and RAW at Nuristan, Kunar and Nangarhar from where they are undertaking cross border terrorism inside Pakistan. HN is fighting its war from eastern Afghanistan, its traditional stronghold.
The US, India, Afghanistan, Israel, NATO strategic partners based in Kabul since November 2001 have been constantly weaving plans and conspiracies to harm Pakistan. They have been fueling terrorism in Pakistan with the help of their paid proxies in FATA, Baluchistan and Karachi and at the same time pressing Pakistan to do more.
Unable to stabilize Afghanistan after fighting the Taliban and al-Qaeda for 15 years, both Kabul and Washington are blaming Pakistan for its failures. The duo wants Pakistan to fight elements of Afghan Taliban and HN, supposedly in FATA and Baluchistan, and to force them to lay down arms and sign their drafted agreement.
Field commanders of Taliban movement disfavor peace talks since they have suffered the most. After forcing USA to pullout bulk of ISAF troops in December 2014, they have gained a definite edge over the ANSF supported by a small US-NATO force and initiative is in their hands. 29 districts are in their full control and 34 districts are being contested. They don’t want to come to terms with collaborators who have plunged the country into the vortex of vices which they had eliminated during their 5-year rule. They don’t want an agreement on dictated terms and without meeting their basic demands. The Taliban and HN feel that Pakistan is once again siding with their opponents to undermine their sacrifices. In its bid to please the US and unpopular unity government in Kabul, Pakistan is fast losing whatever goodwill Taliban have for it.
India has successfully brainwashed all segments of Afghan society and poisoned their minds against Pakistan. There is widespread hatred against Pakistan both at government and people to people levels.
Destabilized Afghanistan suit USA and India since it enables both to retain their presence and continue with their covert operations.
After China, Russia has begun to slowly make inroads into Afghanistan. Its entry in Afghan affairs is likely to change the dynamics of Afghan imbroglio.
The newly emerging politico-economic axis of Russia-China-Central Asian Republics-Pakistan which is drawing strength from CPEC is likely to grow stronger if Iran and Turkey, both resentful of USA joins it.
There are reports that Russia is supplying arms to the Taliban to tackle the threat from the ISIS, aspiring to establish Khurasan State. Russia is also pleading the Taliban case in the UN for taking off their names from the blacklist. The Taliban have exuded confidence in the Russia-China-Pakistan grouping to pursue peace in Afghanistan.
Supply of arms to the Taliban by Russia is worrisome for Kabul and Washington. After all, Moscow has not forgotten and forgiven the perverse role of USA in its fragmentation. Provision of stingers to the Mujahidin in 1988 had forced the Soviets to hasten their exit from Afghanistan. To avenge its humiliation, Russia may be aspiring to make Afghanistan a graveyard of USA. This wish is achievable if it supplies surface to air missiles to the Taliban, enabling them to contest the airpower. If so, it will make the position of 12000 strong Resolute Support Group based in five military bases tenuous.
Pakistani leaders have been dancing to the tunes of America, myopically thinking that by abiding to its dictates, Pakistan will remain safe and so will be their power and wealth. Lure of dollars and fear of USA were other factors which made the weak-kneed and morally corrupt rulers to stick to their policy of appeasement. They made no change in this self-defeating policy despite suffering colossal human and financial losses.
While the US has spent $1.7 trillion in Iraq war, and over $1 trillion in war in Afghanistan including $104.1 billion in its reconstruction, it grieves over $20 billion given to Pakistan in the last 15 years, 50% of which is CSF (close support fund – repayment of provisions and services provided by Pakistan). As against this meagre assistance, Pakistan has incurred an economic loss of $118 billion in fighting the war and has also suffered 60,000 fatalities.
Excessive tilt of USA towards India as exhibited by Indo-US economic, defence and civil nuclear deals, revelations made by Raymond Davis in January 2011 about American dangerous agenda, stealth raid in Abbottabad in May 2011 followed by Memo scandal in October and deadly assault on Salala in November that year, do more mantra, condition based aid and stoppage of CSF brought no change in Pakistan’s US centric foreign policy.
India’s open ended belligerence when seen in context with ever growing Indo-US collaboration culminating into 3 military agreements in 2016 and the US outright biased stance against Pakistan having a direct bearing on security of Pakistan forced our policy makers to lean more heavily upon China and to get closer to Russia.
Tiding over energy crisis, righting economic indicators, curbing terrorism and above all CPEC have helped in improving the overall economic health and image of Pakistan and instilled confidence in the rulers to confront internal and external challenges more confidently.
However, the US enchantment that was at the verge of fizzling out has been reinvigorated by Donald Trump’s telephonic chat with Nawaz Sharif. He showered heaps of praises upon him and Pakistan, referring him as a terrific guy, rating Pakistanis among the most intelligent people, amazing and exceptional. These accolades coming from the most freakish and bigoted US President astounded all and sundry. Anti-Nawaz and anti-Pakistan elements were expecting a roughshod treatment from loudmouthed Trump. His unexpected tributes and exclusion of Pakistan from the banned Muslim States has made Nawaz and his team rapturous and they are still in a state of ecstasy. Idea of getting out of the US spell has been shelved.
While the Muslim world is tense and scared, Pak leadership is relaxed and appears to be all set to once again get duped and fall into the deceptive trap and get bled. They are optimistic that the US under Trump will not betray Pakistan and will be more friendly and cooperative in addressing socio-economic and security concerns. This confidence has been further bolstered by friendly chat of Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa with US Secretary Defence Mattis and US Commander in Afghanistan Gen John Nicholson, both admiring Pakistan’s sacrifices and role in war on terror and wanting a holistic review of Pak-US relations.
The challenges faced by Pakistan are however far from over. Up to 80% success has been achieved against terrorism which had become an existential threat to the existence of Pakistan. The current government deserve credit for giving a go-ahead to intelligence driven operations in NW, Baluchistan and Karachi, and the national action plan. However, the Army, Rangers, FC and ISI deserve special applause for achieving spectacular results in all the three troubled regions.
100% results couldn’t be achieved due to safe havens provided to the runaways of TTP in Afghanistan, backing to BLA, BRA and BLF in Baluchistan by foreign agencies, and obstacles created by Sindh administration in Karachi. All random acts of terror in Pakistan emanate from Afghanistan.
On the economic front, notwithstanding upturned macro-economic indicators, bullish stock exchange, healthy foreign exchange reserves and fast-paced development works, constantly increasing debt burden is a matter of anxiety. Not so satisfactory progress on 20-point NAP needs acceleration.
Management of western border by Pakistan is not to the liking of Kabul and India since it will curtail cross border terrorism. This process as well as return of Afghan refugees, rehabilitation of displaced persons and FATA reforms must continue without any letup. Likewise Rangers operation in Karachi must reach its logical end at the earliest.
Success in war on terror, economic turnaround, CPEC, and Russian support have defeated India’s plan to isolate Pakistan and to get it declared a terrorist state. Although Pakistan today stands on a stronger wicket, agenda of Indo-Afghan-US nexus against Pakistan remain unchanged.
Till 2008, Russia was anti-Pakistan and pro-India. Change in regional dynamics has brought a thaw in Pak-Russia relations and the latter is now keen to develop stronger economic and defence ties with Pakistan. Russia is mindful of the Afghanistan based Daesh and wants Pakistan’s cooperation to build a firewall against the emerging threat. For this reason, Russia is taking deep interest in Afghan affairs and has cultivated ties with Taliban much to the chagrin of Kabul regime and Washington. Russo-China-Pakistan grouping aimed at restoring peace in Afghanistan and CPEC has once again enhanced the importance of Pakistan. Friendly regime in Kabul is a geostrategic necessity for Pakistan.
Pakistan policy makers will have to play their cards shrewdly and configure the foreign policy best suited to guard Pakistan’s national interests. While keeping USA and EU in good humor and engaged in mutually beneficial economic/military cooperation, but without compromising core interests and dignity, efforts should be made to further expand economic/military cooperation with Russia, draw it towards CPEC and to make Pakistan member of Eurasian Economic Union. Besides veering Iran into CPEC, Gwadar port should augment Chahbahar port. Land, air, maritime and internal security must be strengthened to ward off external threats and treacherous designs. Focus should be on getting rid of foreign crutches and instead strengthening own economic legs by drawing full benefits from the emerging opportunities provided by CPEC so as to make Pakistan politically, economically and militarily self-reliant.
The writer is retired Brig, war veteran, defense analyst, columnist, author of five books, Vice Chairman Thinkers Forum Pakistan, DG Measac Research Centre. asifharoonraja.gmail.
1- INTRODUCTION:
Pakistan is located at a region which has great political, economic and strategic location. It has been hub of activities of great powers for last 20 years. It has witnessed intervention of three great powers i-e Britain, USSR, and USA. Its significance was further enhanced during cold war when it becomes ally of US policy of containment of USSR and now the post cold war era has witnessed its significance particularly after the events of 9/11.
2- PAKISTAN GEOGRAPHICALLY LOCATION:
Location: Southern Asia lies between 24 and 36.75 northern latitude and between 61 and 7505 eastern longitude.
Area: 7, 96000 sq.km.
Towards north apart from the state of Kashmir is china. It shares 400 km long boarder with china.
Towards north Tajikistan though no boarder but a narrow strip as Wahkhan strip separate the two.
Towards east, Punjab-Rajasthan boarders which is 1650 km long
Towards west, Afghanistan border of 2250 km.
Towards south, Arabian sea / Indian Ocean. Coastal belt is about 700 km.
Pakistan significance is enhanced as it lies near the Persian Gulf where 65% of the world’s oil is produced.
3- STRATEGIC SIGNIFICANCE:
a) Proximity of great powers:
Pakistan is located at the junction of great powers. In its neighbor’s one world power Russia and the other emerging power china lies. Any alliance among world powers enhances its significance. This factor has been utilized by Pakistan after 9/11. Security and business are two main US interests in the region while Pakistan is playing a front line role in the war against terrorism. Apart from this US interest in the region to contain the growing china, nuclear Iran, terrorist Afghanistan and to benefit from the market of India. Today the political scenario of the region is tinged with preemption policy and US invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan. Iran’s nuclear program, India’s geopolitical muscles (new strategic deal with US) to gain hegemony and to counter the rise of china. Which has earned all the qualities to change unipolar world into bipolar world? In all these issues, Pakistan is directly or indirectly involved especially after al-Qeada operations. The American think tank has repeatedly accepted that war against terrorism could never be won without the help of Pakistan. Pakistan has rigorously fought and an ongoing operation in Waziristan is also targeting the suspected Taliban in the bordering area.
b) Gateway to central Asia-(oil and energy game):
Central Asia is the center stage of new Great games. Western quest for resources- oil and energy resources in the central Asia. After USSR decline, new quest started which is as manifested by politics of oil. Pakistan is located very close to the oil rich Middle Eastern countries. The belt started from Iran and extended to Saudi Arabia. Thus, Pakistan can influence shipment of oil. Iran is struggling to export its surplus gas and oil to eastern countries, Qatar, Pakistan and Turkmenistan pipeline projects highlight the position.
In the energy scarce world, Pakistan is located in the hub of energy rich countries i-e Iran and Afghanistan: both are energy abundant while India and China are lacking. China finds way to Indian Ocean and Arabian sea through Karakoram highway,
c) Significance as a Transit economy:
Pakistan has the potential to develop transit economy on account is its strategic location, land locked Afghanistan now at the phase of reconstruction finds its ways through Pakistan. China with its fastest economy growth rate of 9% us developing southern provinces because its own part is 4500 km away from Sinkiang but Gwadar is 2500 km away. Moreover, Pakistan offers central Asian regions the shortest route of 2600 km as compared to Iran 4500 km or turkey 5000 km. Gwadar port with its deep waters attracts the trade ships of China, CAR and south east Asian countries., also the coastal belt of Balochistan can provide outlet to china’s western provinces to have access to middles eastern markets with the development of coastal highways and motorways.
d) Important link in the chain of Muslim countries:
If we look at the map of Muslim countries, Pakistan occupies a central location. Towards west of Iran, china extends to North Africa. Thus it can actively participate in the activities of Muslim world-economic development, transport of resources and above all combat terrorism.
e) Only Muslim country with nuclear capability:
In the region Pakistan is the only Muslim country having nuclear capability which has great influence on the political, socio-economic activities in the region and the maintenance of status quo in the region.
f) China’s link to the Middle East:
Pakistan is the only direct and shortest link between China and the Middle East. Imagine the impact of China on the Middle East, if this link is fully functional. Gwadar Port located in proximity of Arabian Gulf and Central Asian Republics provide it unique opportunity to serve both. Pakistan needs to capitalize on them through better diplomatic ties with Arab states and CARs. It is therefore anticipated that oil reserves and other resources of CARs would gradually become the focus of world attention in coming years. However, in case of “exports to and from CARs” a peaceful and stable Afghanistan is must. The port will also help in promoting trade with Gulf States possessing 63% of world’s oil reserves and will prove instrumental in promoting trans-shipment essentially of containerized cargo besides unlocking the development potential for hinterland. The most important factor that makes Gwadar Port strategically unique is the location with respect to other major ports in the region, which are all located on the other side ofthe sea. Gwadar port being towards north can easily provide services and facilities to CARs, Afghanistan and China.
g) Reduce Indian hegemony in the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean:
India has a shared interests with the U.S. and NATO in the subjection of Pakistan. Pakistan would cease to be a client state of the U.S. or a manageable state, because of a likely revolution that would occur in the scenario of a broader war in the Middle East against Iran or a far larger Eurasian war involving China and Russia. Nuclear weapons in the hands of such a revolutionary government in Islamabad would be a threat to Indian national security, NATO operations in Afghanistan, and Israel. It is in the shared interests of the U.S., NATO, Israel, and India to neutralize such a strategic and tactical threat from emerging in Pakistan. This is why NATO has underpinned the objective of balkanizing Pakistan and why the U.S. has talked about taking over Pakistani nuclear facilities via the U.S. military. The subjection of Pakistan is also territorially and militarily to the advantage of New Delhi, because it would eliminate a rival and allow India to gain territory that in the view of many Indians was lost with the partition of India in 1947.
4- CONCLUSION / ANALYSIS:
Geo strategic means the importance of a country or a region as by virtue of its geographical location. Stephen Cohn describes this importance “while history has been unkind with Pakistan, its geography has been its greatest benefit.”
Pakistan is a junction of south Asia, west Asia and central Asia; a way from resource efficient countries to resource deficient countries. The world is facing energy crises and terrorism. Pakistan is a route for transportation and a front line state against terrorism. Moreover Pakistan has been traditionally ally of emerging economic giant; china. So in the vague of any change in world politics, Pakistan’s geo-strategic significance would further be enhanced.
Posted by aka in Brig (Retd).Asif Haroon Raja's Column, OPINION LEADER on January 17th, 2017
The recently approved Pakistan Electronic Crime Act by the Parliament and promulgation of cybercrime law specifying punishments to the wrongdoers operating in the world of media with absolute callousness have alarmed the dissidents and made them cautious. In the last 12 days, five social media activists including blogger Salman Haider have gone missing from Islamabad and Lahore. The other four are Waqar Goraya, Amir Saeed, Ahmad Raza and Samar Abbas (President of Civil Progressive Alliance). Their supporters are suspecting that they have been kidnapped to gag their freedom of speech on social media. A large number of human rights activists and some political leaders staged protest rallies in Islamabad, Peshawar, Lahore and Karachi on January 10, demanding speedy recovery of missing media activists and trial of those who had kidnapped them. The well-known liberals espousing right of freedom of speech were Tahira Abdullah, Dr, Farzana Bari, Pervez Hoodbhhoy, Afrasiab Khattak, Akhundzada and Farhatullah Babar. The electronic media is making hue and cry, completely ignoring the fact that the five missing persons particularly Salman had been spewing venom against Islam, religious beliefs, and the govt. For the last few years, liberal fascists and extremist seculars have been relentlessly fanning germs of hatred in the society through social media. Although the strength of so-called enlightened and progressive segment is very small, but they have taken full advantage of social media free of restrictions to impose their anti-Islam and anti-state thoughts on the people of Pakistan and to mislead them.
Salman is in the vanguard of hate mongers. He had opened three twitter and Facebook accounts, namely Bhainsa (buffalo), Mochi (cobbler), Roshni (Light). He was posting anti-government, anti-institutions and anti-Islam noxious posts on these accounts. All his posts were highly toxic. Large numbers of complaints had been registered against him demanding the closure of these injurious accounts and taking strict action against the culprit (s). The operator of these dubious accounts was however too cunning to get caught. He would keep changing the names of his accounts to remain safe from the hand of the law. He had hired the services of a cyber expert, who helped him in keeping his identity hidden. It took the investigating agencies lot of time and effort to trace the operator Salman operating the three accounts.
Salman projected himself as an intellectual and a poet, but it was gathered that he was employed as a teacher in Fatima Jinnah Women University Rawalpindi. It implied that he had been injecting hatred in the minds of students. Further investigations revealed that it was not only Salman but a whole network involved in clandestine activities and was operating from abroad. Most of the operators are based in foreign countries. The goal of this network is to give strength to anti-Islam lobbies/groups in Pakistan and it is also in collusion with separatist groups in Baluchistan.
The United Nations and international human rights organizations including Human Rights Watch voiced concern about the disappearances. Human Rights lawyer Jibran Nasir has filed an application with Supreme Court requesting judicial intervention. Vested groups linked with social media and certain political parties are making noise over the missing five activists and pressurizing the government to locate them at the earliest. They are also highly upset over the dismissal of a columnist writing articles against premier institutions in English newspaper. He is now fanning poison through social media from abroad. Earlier on, they had made a lot of noise over putting columnist Cyril on ECL on account of writing a slanderous article in Dawn newspaper which was a breach of security. Instead of taking him to task for writing a fake story whether fed to him or at his own, the government was grilled for the security leak.
Hussain Haqqani, the former ambassador in Washington, is among the sympathizers of dissident bloggers and he is expressing his deep anguish over their disappearance. He was the manufacturer of infamous Memo which he had presented to the then CJCSC Admiral Mike Mullen in October 2011. The Memo was a certificate to harness Pakistan’s military establishment, place the ISI under Ministry of Interior, open up nuclear program and then roll it back, and to allow the NATO to barge in freely into FATA. Another fascist liberal and pro-India journalist Imtiaz Alam who recently was in the forefront to promote Indian theme of ‘isolation of Pakistan’, has the brashness to write in his article “Wages of freedom in a state of inquisition” in The News dated January 12, 2016 that the Memo was manufactured by Gen Kayani and Lt Gen Shuja Pasha to divert attention from the humiliation of “Get Osama bin Laden stealth Mission” on May 2, 2011. He forgets that by then the fallout effects of the Abbottabad episode had settled down. He also ignores the fact that the US and not Pakistan was humiliated on account of stabbing its close ally in the back. But for Kayani-Pasha pro-active stance, Haqqani would not have abandoned his office of the ambassador. Later on, when the noose of Supreme Court had tightened around his neck, President Zardari and PM Gilani helped him to flee to the safe shores of USA. Since then, he has been spitting venom against Pakistan.
Tariq Fateh based in Canada is another poisonous snake. About two months ago, he had visited a university in East Punjab (India) and while delivering a lecture to the students he spoke in favor of RAW and against Kashmiri Mujahideen. Some students got so angry that they gave him a sound thrashing. Fateh retweeted in favor of Salman after he went missing. These like-minded enlightened liberals support each other’s point of view and share their posts/tweets with fervor. In order to become the darling of the West, these liberal fascists go to any length to earn the goodwill of their western paymasters. They are deliberately provoking the Islamists and elbowing them to lose their patience so that they could make their threatening remarks as an excuse to cry out that their lives are in danger and hence should be granted asylum in western countries. The West, particularly UK has traditionally welcomed traitors, rebels and anti-Islam persons with open arms. The possibility of Salman going underground after learning that his accounts have been traced and quietly sneaking out to seek asylum abroad cannot be ruled out.
The supporters of Salman are straining their lungs and making all out efforts to portray Salman as innocent, tolerant, civilized, enlightened and peaceful. They are trying to inculcate an impression that he and his four comrades have been picked up by the intelligence agencies. This kind of propaganda has also remained in fashion in Baluchistan where few dozen missing Baloch were shown as few thousands. Later on, it was found that most of the missing persons had joined BLA, BRA, and BLF and were residing in Farari camps established in the hills in interior Baluchistan, or in Afghanistan. Some who tried to escape and return home were brutally killed and their mutilated bodies were dumped on the roadside and the blame was put on the Frontier Corps/intelligence agencies. Indian propaganda machinery assisted by pro-Indian and anti-Army lobbies in Pakistan drummed up the issues of missing persons, mutilated bodies and mass graves to hide the crimes of 7.50 lacs Indian security forces in Indian occupied Kashmir, where they are breaking all records of state terrorism against hapless Kashmiris since 1989.
Incurable Imtiaz Alam has recalled the issue of missing persons while shedding tears over the disappearance of anti-state bloggers and has felt no shame in mentioning that the ISI and IB are involved in the racket and none else. Since the SAFMA he heads is entirely funded by RAW, he dare not make a mention of this outfit whose involvement in Baluchistan since 2003 has now been revealed in full details by the arrested RAW agent and serving naval commander Kalbushan Yadav. Concrete proofs have been handed over to the UN and the US by Pakistan. Instead of carrying out self-accountability and reforming himself, Imtiaz wants to reform the ISI. He is least concerned about ‘All Dark’ side of RAW but wants a darker side of ISI quashed. He has cleverly fused the issue of missing persons in Baluchistan (separatists) with the disappearance of five social activists, implying slyly that the kidnappers in both cases are common.
Bhainsa account which had remained offline for two days has once again been opened but all the lethal posts have been deleted. The last post on this account indicated that Pakistan’s elite Cyber Force has taken control of this page. It was stated that henceforth the said account would indulge in healthy criticism and post pro-Pakistan and constructive posts. The purpose is to mitigate the venom of earlier posts.
The Ulemas have sought harsh punishment for the secular blogger Salman and his gang for deriding and besmirching Islam and religious beliefs and terming Islam as ‘bloody Islam’. They have taken exception to the blogger’s statement that ‘Islam and Pakistan can go to hell’, and for censuring the seven pillars of Islam. The Ulemas say that renunciation of even one pillar discards a Muslim from the fold of Islam. Taking strong notice of their blasphemous and anti-state utterances, Ulemas have urged the government that a case against the culprits should be registered under constitutional clauses 29ABC and 298 and their cases referred to the court for trial and award of exemplary punishment.
The writer is a retired Brig, a war veteran, defense analyst, columnist, author of five books, Vice Chairman Thinkers Forum Pakistan, DG Measac Research Centre. [email protected]
Posted by admin in Brig (Retd).Asif Haroon Raja's Column, OPINION LEADER on February 18th, 2016
RAW-blog.jpg
General
Afghanistan is connected with South Asia, Middle East and Central Asia. It
shares 1400 km border with Pakistan and its 42% of Afghan Pashtuns share
religious, ethnic, linguistic and cultural ties with 15.2 million Pakistani
Pashtuns. Pashtuns living in close vicinity of Durand Line have blood relations
and the border has never acted as a barrier in their cross border movement.
Pashtuns from both sides have been jointly fighting all foreign invaders and are doing
so even now.
Afghanistan has traditionally remained friendly to distant neighbor India and
unsympathetic to next door Pakistan since 1947. It opposed Pakistan’s membership in
the UN, laid claim on Pakhtun populated areas of Pakistan and raised the stunt of
Pakhtunistan, and also questioned the validity of Durand Line. It has been off and on
carrying out border violations and has been giving shelter to Baloch rebels. The only
time it was friendly with Pakistan and unfriendly with India was during the five-year rule
of Taliban from 1996 till 2001, but the Taliban also refused to recognize Durand Line
and laid claims on Mohmand agency.
Pakistan-Afghanistan relationship has been a prey to differing interests. The two have
never been at ease with each other and deep doubts have persisted in bilateral ties.
Pakistan has never exploited its vulnerability of being land-locked and has considered it
as its natural ally. It played a key role in pushing out Soviet forces from Afghanistan
and has been hosting over 3 million Afghan refugees since 1979. But its wish for a
friendly government in Kabul has never materialized. Pakistan has behaved maturely
despite Afghanistan’s provocations and extended all kinds of support.
Incident of 9/11 Blown up. 9/11 was projected as the biggest catastrophe ever
happened and Al-Qaeda blamed for the vile act. Whole world shed tears of sympathy
and condemned the perpetrators against whom no proofs had been gathered. Force
mobilized to invade the most impoverished, war torn and sanctioned country far
exceeded the threat. Afghanistan was encircled by establishing military bases in
Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan in the north, making Pakistan a coalition
partner and frontline state, taking China, Russia, Iran and Arab world on board and
obtaining UN approval. India offered all out support. War was justified to fight terrorism
but terrorism was never defined.
US Stated Objectives. The US stated objectives of invasion of Afghanistan included:
Rooting out terrorism by killing/capturing Osama bin Laden, disrupting, defeating and
eliminating Al-Qaeda network; destroying Taliban or making them ineffective;
democratization of Afghanistan; empowerment of women.
US Hidden Objectives. The hidden objectives were to assert American dominance in
the regions surrounded by energy-rich Eurasian region, consolidate Afghanistan as a
neo-colonial US protectorate and a staging post for further intrigues in Central/South
Asia, Middle East, contain China, make India bulwark against China, a key player in
Afghanistan, and stem resurgence of Russia.
Pakistan Specific Objectives.
Initially befriend Pakistan to occupy Afghanistan.
Later, work towards destabilization, de-Islamisation, denuclearization, and
balkanization of Pakistan and making it a vassal state of India.
Installation of Puppet Regime.
Drums of victory were beaten in November 2001
and a puppet regime of Northern Alliance under Hamid Karzai installed in Kabul. During
his over 13 years rule, Karzai allowed the occupiers to ruthlessly persecute the Afghan
Pashtuns. He adopted pro-India and anti-Pakistan stance and permitted Afghan
intelligence agency (NDS) grouped with five foreign agencies to use Afghan soil for
undertaking massive covert war against Pakistan in FATA and Baluchistan.
Resistance War by Taliban. Taliban regime under Mulla Omer was wrongly removed
from power and then consistently hounded and oppressed. The Taliban after carrying
out a tactical withdrawal to regroup, started guerrilla war to free their homeland from
foreign occupation. No amount of force could break the indomitable will of Afghan
Taliban or divide them. By 2008, resistance forces were running shadow governments
in 33 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces with core fighters of about 30,000 and potential
fighters 500,000. ISAF suffered heaviest casualties in 2009 and there on, number kept
increasing. 2015 was the most costly year for Afghan forces and the people.
Stalemate – Victory of Taliban
Failing to defeat the Taliban in the longest war after spending billions of dollars and
using excessive force/torture as well as underhand tricks to divide the Taliban, the US
was left with no other option but to call it a day. Operation Enduring Freedom which
commenced on 07 October 2001, ended on December 28, 2014 and Armies of 35
countries exited without achieving any of the stated and hidden objectives. Learning a
lesson from its unwise decision of abandoning Afghanistan in 1989, the US has left
behind a Resolute Force Group of 12000 under Bilateral Security Agreement till end
2016 to give heart to Afghan forces.
Stalemate was victory for Taliban since Taliban could continue fighting and occupiers
could not. Unlike in 1980s when the Afghan Mujahedeen fought and defeated the
Soviet occupying forces duly helped by Pakistan and the free world, this time the
Taliban under Mulla Omar performed the miracle single-handedly and under much
adverse conditions.
Mistakes made by USA. Major mistakes made were insincere designs, distrusting
Pakistan, relying on India, weak military leadership, drug trafficking, marginalization of
Pashtuns, opening of torture chambers, dependence upon corrupt/inept Karzai regime
and non-Pashtun heavy security forces, hiring of greedy NGOs/security contractors in
thousands; bending situation according to its own whims, farcical political prong aimed
at dividing Taliban, keeping Taliban out of peace talks till 2013. Last but not least
opening 2nd front in Iraq.
Afghan Unity Government. The incumbent unity government was formed in October
2014 after controversial elections, which is more inefficient and corrupt than warlord
heavy Karzai regime. The flaw in this setup is the forcible marriage of convenience mid-
wifed by John Kerry between President Ashraf Ghani and Chief Executive Dr. Abdullah
after their prolonged estrangement. Abdullah heading Northern Alliance is heavily tilted
towards India and he controls 50% of cabinet ministries including NDS. As a result,
influence of India’s RAW in Afghanistan has not diminished. RAW and NDS patronise
Tehrik Taliban Pakistan (TTP) runaways Fazlullah and Omer Khalid Khurasani based in
Kunar and Nangarhar respectively.
Ghani’s Pro-Pakistan Stance. To start with, Ashraf Ghani tilted towards Pakistan as
a result of outstanding success achieved by Operation Zarb-e-Azb in North Waziristan
(NW) which not only pushed out anti-Pakistan militants, but also Haqqani network (HN)
and Hafiz Gul Bahadur militant group. The other thing was Pakistan going an extra mile
in removing Kabul’s security concerns. Ghani was also mindful of his weaknesses
because of lack of political roots. Understanding with resurging Taliban was the only
way for him to survive.
Reasons behind Patch up with Taliban. One reason behind frantic efforts to
negotiate with the Taliban is not-so-happy operational preparedness of the US-UK
trained and equipped Afghan National Army (ANA) to confront the Taliban challenge. It
may not be possible for the US to continue dishing out $4.1 billion per year for the
upkeep of Afghan security forces for long, particularly if they fail to deliver. Other
reason is inherent weakness of unnatural unity government engaged in power tussle.
Most of cabinet ministers including four women are pro-west and have little experience
of governance. Ghani leaned on Pakistan hoping it will persuade Afghan Taliban to talk
and reach a political settlement.
Ghani’s Changed Foreign Policy. With these considerations, Ghani while
enumerating his foreign policy priorities, placed Pakistan, Iran and China well above
India. He undertook his maiden visits to China and Pakistan. He also cancelled arms
deal and military training agreements with India and instead sent cadets to PMA Kakul
for training for the first time. ISI-NDS intelligence cooperation deal was inked. Both
sides took practical measures to improve defence cooperation and intelligence sharing
to tackle common threat of terrorism. Pakistan arranged meetings of Taliban and
representatives of Ghani regime in Beijing and other countries.
Indian Anxieties. Fast improving Pak-Afghan relations, China’s decision to invest $46
billion in Pakistan for the construction of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and energy
projects and Pakistan sailing past the turbulent patch worried India immensely. India is
getting highly vexed since her sinister plans set against Pakistan are falling apart like
nine-pins. Her plan to fill up the security vacuum left behind by the withdrawing US-
NATO troops and to complete encirclement of Pakistan is in jeopardy. Her strategic
alliances with Afghanistan and USA are becoming inconsequential. All the three
conniving partners in crime today find themselves in hot waters. Kautilya’s book offers
no remedy to the prevailing situation since all games of intrigues, coercion and
bloodshed have failed to cow down resilient Pakistan.
RAW Activated.
In desperation, India allocated $300 million to its notorious
intelligence agency RAW and mandated it to further destabilize the troubled regions of
Pakistan and to scuttle CPEC at all costs. Hamid Karzai was given $50 million to
rejuvenate cross border terrorism from Afghan soil and to keep weak-willed Ghani
under pressure and force him to shift his tilt from Pakistan to India. Karzai has teamed
up with RAW influenced NDS, Abdullah and Northern Alliance heavy Afghan Parliament
as well as ANSF to spoil Afghan-Pakistan relations. Indian National Security Adviser Ajit
Doval is personally pursuing anti-Pakistan agenda.
Ghani’s Dilemma.
Ghani is caught between the rock and a hard place. On one hand,
he has to bear the pressure from segment of his government led by Abdullah and
backed by Karzai led faction of Pashtuns, and on the other is the surging Taliban who
enjoy influence over 80% of Afghan territory. After their ouster from NW, HN has
intensified activities in northern Afghanistan where eight provinces are under its control.
Most of Helmand province is also in control of Taliban. Taliban’s 2015 spring offensive
has rapidly changed the situation in their favor. 2016 Spring Offensive in April may
decisively turn the tide. Under pressure from the US, unity government is trying to
patch up with Pakistan. It has taken resignation from the NDS head Nabeel and sacked
8 officials in NDS. Some improvement in Pak-Afghan military relations is discernible.
Obama’s Second Thoughts. The US military felt that with the dismantlement of safe
haven in NW, it had become easier for the Afghan National Army backed by US
airpower/intelligence support to deal with the militants in eastern Afghanistan and thus
defeat them. However, when no success could be achieved at their end and the Taliban
continued to strike targets at will in all parts of the country, the option of dialogue was
renewed. To appease Taliban, Obama struck off Afghan Taliban from the category of
terrorists and termed them as insurgents fighting for their rights. He also declared that
US troops would not fire at Taliban unless provoked by them. These reconciliatory
moves were aimed to induce the Taliban to negotiate and arrive at a political
settlement. Obama had announced that by mid-2015 he would withdraw 50% of
residual force, but now the US seems to be having second thoughts on gradual
reduction of troops on account of Pentagon’s pressure and Da’esh (ISIS) threat.
Two Pronged Negotiations. The US was forced to patch up with the Taliban whom it
had all these years been projecting as uncivilized, crude terrorists deserving no mercy.
Initial effort to induce Taliban for talks was based on two prongs, one prong led by
Ghani and the other by the US and in both cases, Pakistan was asked to assist. China
was also given a green signal to play its role in restoring peace in Afghanistan. Ghani
kept urging the Taliban to join the unity government, and this was one reason of 106
days delay in forming the 16-member cabinet duly approved by Afghan parliament, but
the Taliban didn’t agree.
Presumed Pakistan’s Influence over Taliban. Both the US and Afghan regime
carry the impression that Pakistan is in a position to bring the Taliban to the negotiating
table. While it is true that Pakistan does have some influence over Taliban leaders since
quite many were in its custody all these years, it doesn’t control them and is not in a
position to make them agree to the terms sought by the US. It can also not give any
guarantee to the Taliban that Afghan regime will abide by the terms of agreement
arrived at. Pakistan and China are however trying hard to create conducive conditions
for talks. Pakistan is playing a key role in creating goodwill space for China in
Afghanistan and in mending its relations with Taliban.
Peace Talks. As a consequence to these silent efforts, the wheels of talks started to
churn slowly in Doha and the Taliban in principle agreed to open their political office
there for the initiation of formal political dialogue. Murree talks held on July 7, 2015
between representatives of Taliban and unity government, and US and China’s
representatives sitting as observers raised hopes of a settlement for the first time. On
July 29, eight members of Taliban Shura had reached Islamabad to participate in
second round of talks on July 31 to further speed up the reconciliation process.
Death of Mulla Omar Exploited
Ill-motivated and ill-timed announcement of death of Mulla Omar by the National
Directorate of Security (NDS) on July 29 was aimed at derailing peace talks, straining
Pak-Afghan relations and dividing Taliban. The news was later confirmed by Taliban
Shura. Election of Mulla Akhtar Muhammad Mansour as next Ameer was announced by
Afghan Rahbari Shura on July 30. Sirajuddin Haqqani and Haibatullah Khanzada were
appointed deputies.
Mullah Omar’s departure from the scene has altered the whole dynamics of nascent
peace negotiations with the Taliban. His deputy Mulla Mansour was part of the Taliban
movement from the start and has effectively been in charge as de facto commander
since 2013. He faces a huge challenge in trying to unite a movement that is already
showing signs of fragmenting and questions about his legitimacy at the highest echelon
of the Taliban has made his position awkward.
Rifts in Taliban Two rival camps got engulfed in war of succession; one led by
Mansour and the other by Omar’s brother Mulla Abdul Manan and Omar’s 26 years old
son Mulla M. Yaqub backed by Mullas Mansur Dadullah, Hasan Rahmani, Abdul Razaq,
Rasool Akhund and Qayum Zakir. Fadayee Mahaz headed by Haji Najibullah is another
opponent of Mansour who accused him of poisoning Omar to death. Head of Taliban
political office in Doha Tayyab Agha resigned, but has so far remained neutral. Taliban
are also divided on the issue of talks, one faction favoring and the other opposing it.
Sinister Objectives of Detractors Accomplished. Spoilers sprang into action to
accentuate the rift and succeeded in achieving their sinister objectives by disrupting
peace talks. Several woven stories about circumstances, place and date of Omar’s death
created tension among rank and file of Taliban and impacted their unity. This internal
rift is to the liking of India and other spoilers who are busy widening the rift by
supporting the opponents of Mansour. The US is also a spoiler. It is not in favor of
Pakistan mediated agreement since it will benefit Taliban and Pakistan. It has made the
position of Pakistan and Mansour favoring talks difficult. Pak-Afghan relations that had
begun to improve have again become frosty. However, the biggest loser is Kabul itself.
Efforts to Heal the Rift
Five members of Council of senior Taliban Ulema tried to bridge the rift. They met on
August 21, 2015 to resolve the differences, but Mulla Yaqub and Manan refused to
contest the post of Ameer since they knew they didn’t enjoy popular support among the
Taliban. Had Mansour not met them, the Council would have appointed Maulvi
Muhammad Ahmad from Kandahar belonging to Kakar tribe as next Ameer. Currently
Mulla Rasool is the main opponent of Mansour and is anti-peace talks.
Mullah Mansour’s Assertiveness
In order to consolidate his position and to win over support of opponent camp, Mansour
stiffened his stance by asserting that there will be no talks without meeting their basic
demands of complete withdrawal of foreign troops and replacement of US tailored
constitution with Islamic constitution. He also stepped up attacks in all parts of
Afghanistan and raised his stature after capturing Kunduz. He did this to dispel the over
optimistic impression that after the death of Mulla Omar, Taliban are in disarray and
resistance has weakened, and that Taliban will be negotiating from position of
weakness. Taliban hold sway over 127 districts of the country. Latest news is that on
February 12, the opponents of Mulla Mansour have decided to forge unity and reunify
the Taliban movement.
Negotiated Political Settlement
Negotiated political settlement leading to broad based government with Taliban, given
representation as per their demographic strength will be an ideal arrangement since it
will prevent civil war and benefit Afghan Pashtuns, Pakistan and China but may not be
that beneficial for non-Pashtun Northern Alliance since its power base will shrink. It will
also not suit India since balance of power will shift towards Pakistan friendly Afghan
Pashtun. Iran and USA will also not be happy.
While Pakistan and China are playing an active role in making Afghanistan peaceful,
both are clear that arm twisting of Taliban will prove counterproductive. In case a
settlement is reached without giving a bigger share in power to the Taliban, the
implication is that there will be strong resentment among the rank and file of the
Taliban and other resistance forces. It will become very difficult for Mullah Mansour who
has become controversial to control the dissenters.
Threat of Da’esh. Da’esh (ISIS) has gained toeholds in Nangarhar and Farah
provinces and has also colluded with Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) in Northern
Afghanistan. India and probably USA are discreetly facilitating their entry. Weakening of
Taliban will create more space for Da’esh in Afghanistan, which will be more hazardous
for the whole region, since Da’esh is vying to re-establish ancient Khurasan State
comprised of parts of Central Asia, Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan. Collusion of Da’esh
with TTP leaders based in Afghanistan assisted by RAW and making Nangarhar as main
base of operation is a dangerous development. Extension of hand of friendship by Al-
Qaeda chief Zawahiri to Mulla Mansour if reciprocated will add to the complications of
regional security. It will result in prolonged bloodshed and destruction spread over
decades, as predicted by Obama.
Iran-Saudi Tiff.
Growing tiff between the two ideological rivals is casting its shadow
on Syria and Afghanistan and if not diffused in time will have bearing on Pakistan as
Indian Military Involvement in Afghanistan.
Indian military which had refused to join the US led coalition in Afghanistan to fight
terrorism in 2001 has now decided to barge into Afghanistan. India has renewed its
defence deal with Afghanistan and is now supplying arms and ammunition to ANA since
last January. Indian Military Attache in Kabul Sojeet Narain stated that India has started
assisting the Afghan military in their fight against militants and this support will
continue till victory. 400 trucks carrying arms have been transported to Kabul for ANA
via Chahbahar. It includes MGs, LMGs, rocket launchers, grenades and ammunition.
India’s Russian built MI-35 attack helicopters flew from Bagram air base to support
ANA’s ground operation in Helmand on January 20. Gen John Campbell appreciated
Indian effort. On February 1, Indian military cargo planes unloaded weapons and
equipment at Kabul airport. India is already imparting training to Afghan police and is
now likely to train ANA.
During Modi’s last visit to Kabul, an agreement was signed allowing Indian citizens to
travel to Afghanistan and back without visa. Taking advantage of this facility, India has
inducted large numbers of retired armed forces officers and undercover officers in
Afghanistan in order to consolidate Indian military’s presence and to keep western
border hot and to gain control over Wakhan corridor. This ingress will help India in
interfering with CPEC.
Fallout of Turmoil in Afghanistan
Negative fallout of the disarray in the Taliban ranks is not good news for the peaceniks
including President Ashraf Ghani, Washington and Islamabad. Another obvious corollary
of the disharmony in Taliban ranks is that erstwhile Taliban factions will join Da’esh in
bigger numbers and pave the way for Da’esh to emerge as the most powerful entity.
Turmoil in Afghanistan will be to the big disadvantage of Pakistan, since there will be
spillover effect. Pak Army is already tired fighting the war for 13 years and cannot
afford to further prolong it. It will also adversely impact China’s economic aggression in
the region and its plan to connect Gwadar with Afghanistan.
Preventive Act. In order to prevent the chaos, US, China, Pakistan and Iran should
collectively help the intra-Afghan dialogue to proceed smoothly till comprehensive
political settlement benefiting all factions of Afghans irrespective of ethnic divisions.
Role of unity government is however critical since Taliban offensive has rattled Ghani,
and he has begun to speak Karzai and Abdullah’s language. War lords are once again
getting stronger and cases of desertions from ANSF to private militias are increasing as
had happened in 1990/91.
Quadrilateral Talks
Three sessions of quadrilateral talks have been held in Islamabad and Kabul in which
representatives of Pakistan, Afghanistan, China and the US took part to evolve a
roadmap for peace talks. Afghan unity government has prepared a draft for next
meeting in Kabul on February 23. So far no breakthrough has been achieved since the
Taliban have not joined it. However inclusion of two heavy weights and Russia’s support
has given strength to peace process. Russia favors striking off names of Taliban from
UN black list. Pakistan is insisting that spoilers should be restrained, Afghan regime
should cooperate, and all factions of Taliban and Hizb-e-Islami should be invited and
use of stick avoided. Afghan government wants use of force against those refusing to
hold talks. Taliban, HN and Fidai Mahaz have been asked to prepare their list of
demands, while Hizb-e-Islami is also being approached through elders of tribes in
Paktia.
The four have urged the Taliban to attend the next meeting in Kabul on February 23
but the Taliban have made their participation subject to fulfilment of their demands
here under:
A. Take off Taliban leaders from the UN list of terrorists.
B. Release of prisoners.
C. Remove restrictions on travel.
D. Unfreeze their accounts in foreign banks.
E. Intimate exact date of departure of Resolute Support Force.
Determinants
Although analysts are busy painting doomsday scenario, saying it marks the end of
Taliban movement, but knowing their resilience and unmatched sacrifices, it will not die
down and someone else will carry forward the baton; although none will fit in Mulla
Omar’s shoes. Their position has eroded a little due to internal rifts, but Mulla Mansour
commands the largest and most powerful faction. Yet the 36 years’ war has fatigued
them and their 3-4 generations have got affected. They also want the war to end. The
country too badly needs a break.
Pakistan has suffered the most on account of instability in Afghanistan. Pak-Afghan
security is inter-linked and it is a geo-strategic compulsion for both to remain friendly.
While Pakistan realizes it, Afghan leadership doesn’t. Earlier the Afghan leaders
recognize this reality and take practical steps to restore peace, better it will be for the
region.
Till such time anti-peace elements led by India, Abdullah and Rashid Dostum are reined
in, and the US stops its double game, peace will not return in Af-Pak region.
Unless Kabul gets out of perverse influence of India, cooperate rather than distrust
Pakistan, and opts for a home-made formula, sooner than later unity government would
crumble and ANA would splinter and pave the way for dreaded civil war.
In real-politick terms, stability in Afghanistan and regional harmony among all countries
surrounding it would contribute in the fast-paced development of the region.
Implication is that this region cannot develop economically as long as Afghanistan
remains unstable.
With hostile India on its east, Pakistan can ill-afford to have pro-India and anti-Pakistan
regime in Kabul posing a twin threat to its security.
History of Afghanistan teaches an important lesson that peace and stability in
Afghanistan is possible only after complete withdrawal of foreign troops. And all
stakeholders within the country are ready to accept each other and arrive at a common
arrangement. This was true in the past and is valid today.
All depends whether the US after abandoning Afghanistan would forsake its declared
and hidden objectives for which it came, spent trillions and suffered heavy casualties
besides losing face and prestige as a sole super power, or indirectly continues with its
proxy war?
The US having lost the war, would like as a minimum to have friendly government in
Afghanistan to be able to pursue its mercantile interests in Central Asian region.
Only joint and collaborative efforts can tackle terrorism and not blame-game.
Ultimate solution to Afghan imbroglio will have to be found by the Afghans themselves.
Others can at best facilitate dialogue.
Lastly, key to peace is with Taliban and none else. Best course for people of
Afghanistan is to honor the colossal sacrifices of the Taliban and let them form the
future broad-based government without outside interference.
Recommendations
Pakistan should grant ‘Most Favored Nation’ status and land access to India through
Wagah border with due prudence. This should be linked with resolution of core issues.
Pakistan should assert and exert its geo-strategic position and significance and extract
its due share rather than following a self-defeating policy of appeasement.
Pakistan should continue to convince the US and Afghan government to limit India’s
role in Afghanistan since it is the chief trouble maker.
Concerted efforts be made to counter Indian propaganda in Afghanistan aimed at
poisoning the minds of Afghans against Pakistan and remove their misperceptions.
Imaginative themes should be coined to win back friendship of estranged Afghan
public, particularly Afghan non-Pashtuns.
Pakistan should be mentally and physically prepared to handle post 2016 explosive
scenario in Afghanistan.
Pakistan should help China in further expanding its influence in Afghanistan to
neutralize Indian influence.
At behest of USA, Pakistan betrayed Afghan Taliban and suffered a great deal. They
must not be ditched again.
Conclusion
To conclude I would say that Pakistan has remained under the deceptive magic spell of
the US for too long without any gains. Pakistan helped the untrustworthy USA to occupy
Afghanistan and remove a friendly regime and replace it with anti-Pakistan regime. It
has been ceding ground to win the friendship of India but couldn’t change the mindset
of Brahman rulers who have not reconciled to Pakistan’s existence and has missed no
opportunity to harm Pakistan. Unity government in Kabul is wholly in the grip of USA
and India and will continue to prefer India over Pakistan. It is continuing to help India
to destabilize Pakistan. Notwithstanding the need to maintain friendly relations with all
the three, this fatal affection must not be at the cost of national interests and dignity of
the nation. Policy of appeasement should be replaced with policy of upholding our self-
esteem. It is Pakistan’s strategic compulsion to have a friendly government in
Afghanistan and it must strive hard for it using all its diplomatic skills.
The writer is a retired Brig, war veteran/defence analyst/columnist/author of five books,
Director Measac Research Centre, Director Board of Governors Thinkers Forum
Pakistan. [email protected]
Posted by admin in Brig (Retd).Asif Haroon Raja's Column, OPINION:OP-ED on February 1st, 2016
by
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p style=”text-align: center;”>Brig (Retd)Asif Haroon Raja
120 seconds pep talk between Nawaz Sharif and Narendra Modi at Paris on November 30, followed by meeting of National Security Advisers Ajit Doval and Lt Gen Nasser Janjua at Bangkok on December 6 melted the ice and set the ball rolling. Indian external affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj’s visit to Islamabad to attend Heart of Asia conference two days later and her announcement that Indo-Pak talks would be soon resumed and flying visit of Modi to Lahore on December 25 made our political leaders, media and intellectuals euphoric. It was widely anticipated that the ground has been smoothened to end the era of antagonism. None took into account that nothing special had happened which made India to push aside its policy of antipathy and to send friendly gestures after prolonged bout of belligerence in response to Pakistan’s consistent efforts to defuse the heat along the LoC and working boundary since last August and to resume stalled peace talks. Short of war, India has applied all tools of coercion and slander to browbeat, defame and isolate Pakistan.
India’s covert operations in FATA, Baluchistan and Karachi are still continuing and Indian media is still aggressive. It will be puerile to think that there is a genuine change of heart and India has overcome its desire to undo Pakistan, or to reduce it to a vassal state as in the case of Bhutan, Nepal and Bangladesh. Hoping that India will amicably settle Kashmir issue in the light of UN resolutions and give right of self-determination to the Kashmiris amounts to chasing rainbows. By just renaming ‘composite dialogue’ as ‘comprehensive dialogue’ doesn’t mean that India would now change its age-old practice of dilly dallying tactics to buy time and keep the resolution of the conflict in pending tray for times to come. India has been playing Baluchistan card to equate it with Kashmir issue and keep it as a bargaining chip to trade off Kashmir in return for pulling out from Baluchistan.
India began to hammer Pakistan on charge of cross border terrorism in occupied Kashmir from 1990 onwards and after 9/11 intensified the use of hammer more fiercely. After Mumbai attacks in November 2008, India has made the incident into an excuse to pin down Pakistan on the charge of terrorism and project the issue of terrorism more important than Kashmir issue. This stance helps India in keeping Pakistan on the defensive and releases pressure on India to resume dialogue and resolve issues. This stance was reiterated during Ufa meeting between Nawaz and Modi last year. India hypocritically drums up the issue of terrorism and portrays itself as the biggest victim of terrorism, not realizing that it is the architect of cross border terrorism in South Asia and all the seven states of South Asia are its victims. In the ongoing war on terror in which Pakistan has been acting as the frontline state, it has suffered the most and has produced much better results in counter terrorism than any other country.
Can we ignore seven decades of baggage of animosity and distrust? How can people of Pakistan forget that Pakistan was cut into two by India in 1971 and since then has suffered thousands of cuts on its body? How can India be trusted and declared as a reliable and trustworthy friend and get complacent that she will refrain from causing harm in future when practically it has never done anything good for Pakistan and is always scheming to undo Pakistan? RAW has not winded up its terror networks in conflict zones of Pakistan and is still using Afghan soil for exporting terrorism into Pakistan. Indian brutes are continuing to persecute the Kashmiris in occupied Kashmir ruthlessly. Indian leaders are still talking of breaking Pakistan into eight quasi states. They say CPEC is unacceptable and are employing various tactics to scuttle it. RAW is still supporting banned terrorist groups TTP, BLA, BRA, BLF and is in league with certain political parties to damage Pakistan. India has no intention to resolve Kashmir dispute and may resolve Siachin and Sir Creek disputes if Pakistan agrees to give land access to Afghanistan and Central Asia through Wagah border and to accept LoC as a permanent border.
India is desperately looking for an opportunity to disable Pakistan’s nuclear program so that it could establish its regional hegemony. India opts for talks only to buy time or to get out of difficult situation and not otherwise. It would always like to sit on the negotiating table from position of strength. It has all along sought one-sided concessions and never given anything in return. It wants peace and trade on its terms only. Pakistan has traditionally been sweet talked by India whenever it was in a better position to talk and bargain. Our leaders get carried away by the farfetched enthralling offers of cooperation, two way trade and prosperity and quickly forget that Indian leaders believe in Chankyan tactics of ‘Baghal mein Chhuri, moun mein raam raam” (cloak and dagger policy), and on the first available opportunity stab us in the back. They have been pursuing these immoral practices since the inception of Pakistan but for unknown reasons our leaders remain in their magic spell. Don’t we know that ‘Cold Start doctrine’ is Pakistan specific and two-thirds Indian military is poised against Pakistan?
So what Modi who proudly talked of India’s and his personal role in liberating Bangladesh has done which has made our leaders draw fanciful conclusions? It is not difficult to discern that both India and her chief patron USA are on the back foot in Afghanistan and Pakistan after remaining in hot soup for a very long time is gradually recovering and regaining its health and credibility.
Thanks to the laudable efforts of the military and ISI, series of conspiracies and plans hatched from 2002 onwards by the strategic partners based in Kabul to destabilize, denuclearize, de-Islamise and balkanize Pakistan through covert operations while pretending as friends, Pakistan has survived and mercifully has sailed past the rough patch. The security forces have been fighting the ideologically motivated fanatics with extraordinary grit and determination. After Operations Rah-e-Raast and Rah-e-Nijat, the decisive sledgehammer was struck by Operation Zarb-e-Azb which has ultimately broken their back. Their command and communication centres, training centres, logistic bases and safe havens have all been destroyed. All the 18 administrative units in the northwest that were in their control have been recaptured and writ of the state re-established. The military has gained a conclusive edge over the militants wanting to destroy Pakistan to fulfill the agenda of adversaries of Pakistan. The foreign paid militant groups funded, equipped and trained by foreign agencies have been flushed out and they are no more in a position to carryout organized attacks from Pak soil. They are now carrying out random attacks using Afghan soil under the patronage of their mentors to keep the pot of terror simmering. National Action Plan has the capacity to root out terrorism and in this regard the government and Army under Gen Raheel Sharif have pledged to take the ongoing operations in FATA, Baluchistan and Karachi to their logical end. This pledge is giving nightmares to the enemies of Pakistan since their billions of dollars of investment will go waste.
It is owing to outstanding results achieved by the military and the resilience shown by the people of Pakistan to withstand the onslaughts of terrorism, insecurity, joblessness, poverty, and miraculous economic recovery which has impressed the world. Construction of $46 billion worth CPEC has the capacity to upturn the fortunes of Pakistan. Pakistan has become relevant and is today looked at with awe, admiration and respect. The hackneyed theme sung by Indo-US-West-Israel nexus that Pak military is either complicit or inefficient has lost its appeal. Another propaganda plank that instability in Afghanistan is owing to cross border terrorism emanating from North Waziristan has also gone stale and so have several other suchlike cockeyed themes to portray Pakistan in poor light. The reason behind this change in outlook of the world comity is that Pakistan is the sole country which has fought terrorism from the front, rendered largest sacrifices and turned the corner.
This accomplishment has become all the more praiseworthy when seen in context with the fact that the ones pressing Pakistan to do more against terrorists were aiding the same terrorists. Pak soldiers fought with the faceless enemy for over a decade with meagre resources and didn’t get fatigued or demoralized. They have become more hardy, battle inoculated and fearless. It is now rated as the best Army of the world, while ISI is rated as number one among the top ten intelligence agencies of the world. Gen Raheel has earned the distinction of being the most popular military leader among the top ten military leaders of the world. All other countries involved in counter terrorism in Afghanistan and in Middle East, with huge resources at their disposal and with no limitation of damage control, failed in their mission and had to pack their bags and quit. They are now at the receiving end. So much so, that Pakistan is being pampered to help in restoring peace in Afghanistan. India and Afghanistan are the only two spoilers playing the old tunes and putting spanners in the way of peace talks. They don’t want peace talks brokered by Pakistan since they know the outcome will be to their disadvantage and to the advantage of both Taliban and Pakistan. Yet Afghan unity government is seeking Pakistan’s help and Pakistan is doing its bit to restore peace in war-torn Afghanistan.
The fast changing regional and global dynamics is shrinking space for India’s anti-peace activities from Afghan soil. It cannot resort to open war since Pakistan has geared up its minimum nuclear deterrence to full spectrum deterrence. Pakistan’s short range missiles like Nasr have buried the Cold Start doctrine while the long range missiles can reach up to Nicobar and Andaman Islands to tackle with India’s second strike capability. Cruise missiles have been matured after a dozen successful tests. PAF and Pak Navy are also constantly improving and upgrading their offensive/defensive capacities. Pakistan’s conventional and non-conventional capabilities have made the Indian leaders sensible. CPEC towards which countries of Central Asia are getting attracted and all ASEAN states and South Asian states are vying for peace and friendship and are in favor of China’s concept of connectivity have left Hindutva loving India isolated in this critical age of geo-economics. Insatiable thirst for energy is another compelling reason for India to set aside insanity and sit and talk since she knows that her thirst can be quenched by Central Asia and the route to it passes through Pakistan. India also wants Pakistan to tone down its opposition to her quest for earning a permanent seat in UNSC.
India was therefore compelled by circumstances to silence her guns along the LoC and Working Boundary and to mend fences with Pakistan. Sushma Swaraj’s visit to Islamabad and to agree to resume stalled talks was a bitter morsel she had to chew and swallow. Modi’s visit to Lahore was the result of American pressure to let Afghan peace process move forward and improve ties with Pakistan. However, these initiatives were not taken out of sincerity and noble intentions, but with devious intentions. A message had to be given to the world that India is a peace loving country and desires peace with neighbors.
No sooner the message was given and dates for talks fixed for January 15, another false flag operation was enacted in Pathankot and Pakistan blamed. Some proofs have been handed over to Pakistan. To give a further proof that Modi is a good boy, the BJP government behaved sensibly and accepted Pakistan’s proposal of carrying out a probe while Indian media kept up its tradition of going berserk. Sensible behavior however was short-lived and Indian leaders once again exposed their true face. Indian Defence Minister hurled open threats that pain will be responded with pain and India will chose the time and place to cause greater pain. Within three days of his offensive statement, attack on Bacha Khan University in Charsadda took place on January 20 in which 20 students were martyred and 35 injured by four terrorists.
It has been established beyond an iota of doubt that the attackers (all killed) and their four facilitators who have been arrested came from Afghanistan and were in communication with their sponsors in Afghanistan. It has also been established that RAW in league with Afghan NDS masterminded the attack and the attackers were trained and briefed in Jalalabad and Rs 30 crores were spent on this operation. TTP’s leader Umar Mansoor based in Kunar has declared that many more attacks on educational institutes will be launched. He had also initiated gruesome attack on Army Public School Peshawar on December 16, 2014. First fallout effect of Pathankot incident is the postponement of talks without giving fresh date. It seems India is making the resumption of talks conditional to progress shown by Pakistan as had been the case after Mumbai attacks. Coming weeks will show whether Indian leadership opts for sanity by living and letting others to live or insanity.
The writer is a retired Brig, defence analyst, columnist, author of five books, Director Measac Research Cente, Director Board of Governors Thinkers Forum Pakistan. Takes part in TV talk shows and delivers lectures. [email protected]
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Rejoinder to Imtiaz Alam By Brig Asif H. Raja
Posted by admin in Asif Haroon Raja (Retd):Pakistan Army, Brig, Commentary on June 4th, 2016
Rejoinder to Imtiaz Alam
By
Brig Asif H. Raja
on
May 20, 2016
by
Asif Haroon Raja
Imtiaz Alam is a senior journalist who writes articles and hosts programs on TV channels. He also heads SAFMA, a dubious organization which reportedly is sponsored by RAW. SAFMA in league with Aman ki Asha, another shady organization co-hosted by Jang-Geo Group and Indian media group is also patronized by RAW.
The two have been working in tandem to improve Indo-Pakistan relations and to promote peace and friendship between the two arch rivals.
Notwithstanding the apparent noble intentions, in practical terms the duo has always been espousing the cause of India and undermining Pakistan. In a subtle manner a message conveyed that it is futile for Pakistan to stand up against the military might of India, which is five times superior and its economy is shining.
Alam says India has more than eight times bigger economy in terms of GDP and will become 3rd largest economy in next three decades. Its defence spending is 1.8% of its GDP and defence budget now stands at $50 billion a year. In contrast, Pakistan in his view is out in the cold.
The message given by him and his ilk is to accept the ground reality and succumb to India’s demand of accepting its regional hegemony and to forget about Kashmir by accepting the Line of Control (LoC) as a permanent border between the two Kashmirs. Only then will the two can live as peaceful and friendly neighbors and peace will help the two to prosper economically.
The two groups have all along blamed Pakistan for maintaining an aggressive posture on Kashmir and promoting Jihadi culture in Kashmir by supporting non-state actors to bleed India. Alam says that successive governments of Pakistan have been taking a cyclic course of an arms race with India. He has advised Pakistani leaders to say no to arms race to avoid self-immolation. The two suspicious outfits have gone underground ever since extremist BJP under a terrorist Narendra Modi has gained power in India and embarrassed India’s farce of secularism, which had kept the world fascinated and impressed for a very long time.
Imtiaz Alam is a committed Indian fan and being a secular has derided Islamists in Pakistan, dubbing all of them as extremists and terrorists.
In the past, he always criticised Pak Army and ISI, saying they have been using Jihadis as their strategic assets. He also criticises government’s policies on Kashmir, defence, nuclear, or its dealings with India. His write-ups in newspapers and stance on electronic media testifies his bent of mind.
In his recent article “When will we say no to the arms race” dated May 19, 2016 in ‘The News’, he has twisted facts of Indo-Pak history to berate Pakistan’s military rulers in particular and to project India in good light.
He contends that Pakistan joined western military blocks to counter balance India but doesn’t highlight the distressing circumstances under which Pakistan was created and the plethora of problems loaded upon newly born state by India to ensure its death in the crib.
He didn’t mention about India gobbling up 565 princely states including two-thirds Kashmir and the states wanting to join Pakistan, annexation of Sikkim, Diu and Goa after 1947 and its threatening posture against Pakistan which impelled Pakistan to seek security under the umbrella of western pacts.
He callously mentions that Pakistan relied upon non-state actors from the beginning and used them in 1948 war in Kashmir. This is travesty of truth.
Going by Partition plan, Kashmir was to become part of Pakistan, but it was annexed by Indian military in October 1947. But for the voluntary dash of tribesmen from FATA, whole of Kashmir would have been seized by India. Pakistan government had no role or control over the tribesmen who had gone there to save the Muslim Kashmiris getting massacred by Dogra Army.
Ever since Kashmir has become the bone of contention between the two neighbors and the two have gone to war in 1965 and in 1971.
Alam contends that Indian military’s drubbing at the hands of Chinese in 1962 conflict encouraged Ayub Khan to launch Operation Gibraltar in August 1965, which then triggered 1965 war. Why he hesitates to write that Ayub Khan didn’t exploit the precarious condition of India in 1962 and went to the extent of proposing joint defence to India against communism?
Why he overlooked the fact that despite series of UN resolutions and Nehru’s pledge to grant right of self-determination to Kashmiris and holding a plebiscite under the auspices of the UN, India didn’t honor. India’s u turn and its expansion and modernization of armed forces with the help of Soviet, western and American military assistance after 1962, which had begun to tilt the military balance in favor of India had impelled Pakistan to launch Operation Gibraltar. Alam didn’t say anything that while Operation Gibraltar was in a disputed territory which was in India’s illegal occupation, India stealthily crossed the international border on 6th September 1965 without declaring war with the aim of destroying Pakistan’s armed forces but failed.
While describing the 1971 crisis in erstwhile East Pakistan, Alam brazenly twists historical facts by saying that rather than transferring power to Mujibur Rahman led Awami League that had won the elections, Gen Yahya opted for a military action in March 1971 in East Pakistan with the support of non-state actors Al-Shams and Al-Badr which resulted in over one million civilian casualties. By saying this at a time when Hasina Wajid’s regime is busy hanging aged Jamaat-e-Islami leaders on account of so-called 1971 war crimes, he has further sprinkled salt on the wounds of Islamists in Bangladesh but delighted India and Bangladesh rulers.
Rather than paying tributes to them, who had fought the rebels along with Pak Army to save the motherland, he declared them as non-state actors (rebels) and ignored brutal Mukti Bahinis.
Either he has no clue of history or he has published the dictated script given by his patrons. Why does he forget that for almost 15 days Gen Yahya and his team sat with Mujib and his team in Dacca and gave in to all his six points and much more and announced him as PM of Pakistan.
This he did at a time when Mujib had rebelled against the state on 01 March 1971 and his goons had massacred over 1, 50, 000 non-Bengalis and pro-Pakistan Bengalis (Biharis) and raped women with utmost ferocity and barbarity. A state within state had been created and people of East Pakistan (mostly terrorised by Mukti Bahinis) had defied central authority.
The Indian and western media had remained tight-lipped over their atrocities, (and so is Alam even after learning the whole truth about 1971 conspiracy). When Yahya learnt that Mujib and his henchmen had made up their mind to break away from Pakistan and any solution within the concept of united Pakistan was unacceptable to them, he ordered the military action on the night of 25 March 1971 to save Pakistan from disintegrating. At that time Al-Shams and Al-Badar were not in existence.
The rebellion was suppressed by the lone 14 Infantry Division and by May 1971 order was restored in the entire province and a civilian Bengali governor Malik was installed. Casualties were in few thousands and not a million as claimed by Alam.
Mujib and his stalwarts after creation of Bangladesh had bloated the figure of casualties to 3 million and rape of 300,000 women. Alam must be agreeing to these bizarre figures. Al-Badr and Al-Shams were created as Razaqars essentially for village defences during the counter insurgency operations and for rear areas security during war because of paucity of troops. Once order was restored, general amnesty was announced for all the Awami League leaders based in India and the refugees but India blocked them.
All attempts made by Pakistan to find a political settlement were turned down by haughty Indira Gandhi. Indian leaders were smelling blood and they didn’t want to miss a chance of century (as stated by Subramanian). Pakistan internal matter was made into Indian issue. Mukti Bahinis were eulogized and Pak military demonized as human eating monsters and rapists by Indian media as well as western media.
Alam in his article has put the entire blame on Field Marshal Ayub Khan and Gen Yahya Khan and skipped role of ZA Bhutto and that of Mujib in the 1971 tragedy. Thereafter, in a way he holds a grudge against Bhutto for rebuilding a defeated Army and putting up a confrontationist national security paradigm despite signing Simla agreement.
He forgets that soon after creating Bangladesh, India embarked upon an ambitious force modernization program with the help of USSR and also carried out nuclear explosion in August 1974. At the same time, Sindh and Baluchistan were given as new targets for subversion to RAW in 1973. We all know that RAW in league with KGB and KHAD had fully supported Baloch insurgency from 1973 to 1978 and had also supported Sindhu Desh movement in Sindh. So what should have Bhutto done and why should he not have laid the foundation of nuclear program when India had expansionist designs and had not reconciled to existence of Pakistan? Kashmir issue was virtually frozen after Simla agreement and flawed policy of bilateralism introduced to bar third party intervention.
Alam then picks up his stick against Gen Ziaul Haq accusing him of creating non-state jihadi actors and making Pakistan an undeclared nuclear weapon power. He skips the role of US which in actuality brought in Jihadis from 70 Muslim countries, funded and militarized madrassas and funded the proxy war in Afghanistan. He fails to mention that Zia’s strategy was a 100% success story.
He also fails to mention that the US abandonment of Afghanistan in haste had led to civil war and Pakistan had to suffer the consequences. Another point which he missed was the Pressler Amendment which became a cause for rise in debts and political instability. Consequently the democratic era failed to pay any heed to ill effects of Afghan imbroglio. So to say that the erstwhile western patrons subjected Pakistan to sanctions in the aftermath of nuclear explosions in 1998 will not be correct. Those were additional sanctions.
Rather than condemning India’s nuclear explosions, he sees Pakistan’s response negatively. In his view Pakistan under Nawaz should have pursued Gen Zia’s strategy of nuclear ambiguity rather than putting the bomb in the open shelf. In his view Pakistan’s nuclear response led to nuclear arms race. He intentionally overlooked Zia’s series of proposals to make South Asia Nuclear Free Zone which were out rightly rejected by India. Pakistan didn’t want to sign NPT and CTBT unilaterally when India refused to sign.
Yet, India was awarded civil nuclear deal by USA in 2008 and then made member of Nuclear Suppliers Group to enable India to give fillip to its weaponized nuclear program. Conversely, Pakistan’s nuclear program became an eyesore for India, Israel and USA and all sorts of objections were raised.
Alam then dwells on India’s future grandiose plans of becoming a big power and a bulwark against China. He rightly highlights that in partnership with USA, India under Maritime security and joint strategic vision for Asia-Pacific, and naval cooperation in Indian Ocean is leaving Pakistan far behind and creating unbridgeable asymmetry on conventional plane. At the same time he adds that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons and war heads are more than India’s stocks and is geared towards becoming the fifth largest nuclear power by 2025. (Stolen from biased western analysts). He then subtly makes a mention of Pakistan’s tactical nukes and their use on its own soil to thwart Indian intrusion, and Pakistan’s preference for first-strike option.
After describing the horrors of nuclear war and relating it to Mutually Assured Destruction, Alam belittles concept of deterrence saying it’s a flawed doctrine. He then dwells upon Pakistan’s minimum nuclear deterrence now jumping to full spectrum nuclear deterrence and lists out the types of missiles Pakistan has to counter India’s Cold Start doctrine and continental triad nuclear doctrine. He then delivers the best punch by asserting that in response to Pakistan’s use of non-state actors (strategic assets), Ajit Doval’s passive-aggressive and aggressive doctrine is in full play by co-opting proxies from within and from Afghanistan.
One wonders why Alam is shy of making a mention that the main reasons of arms race and nuclearisation of South Asia are unresolved Kashmir issue, India’s intransigence and belligerent attitude. Why doesn’t he say that India has always aspired for Akhand Bharat and wants to become a regional hegemon in South Asia, Indian Ocean including Arabian Sea? He looks the other way to Pakistan’s military strategy which is defensive in nature and its nuclear program which is meant to safeguard its territorial integrity and sovereignty. Pakistan has no territorial claims with any neighbor and has desired peaceful relations with all. India’s military strategy on the other hand is offensive in nature and imperialist in design and has disputes with all its neighbors. India uses proxy war, Chankyan tactics and propaganda as tools to achieve its sinister objectives.
Since 1989, India is constantly raising its defence budget which now totals $50 billion annually and is feverishly buying sophisticated war machines for the three services of Indian military and testing new range of nuclear tipped missiles to disable Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence.
It will be too simplistic and naïve to think that India’s conventional and nuclear build up is meant to confront China. After the 1962 humiliating defeat, India will never ever try to flex its military muscles against China. More so, Great Himalayas stand as a barrier between the two neighbors which prevent classical invasion by any side.
Over 70% of India’s strike formations and air bases are deployed against Pakistan. The latter cannot match Indian military superiority which is 5:1, but Pakistan strives to maintain strategic balance of 3:1 and reinforces it with nuclear deterrence. Big powers have always played a role in tilting the military balance in favor of India and currently the US is going out of the way to help its strategic partner India in expanding and upgrading its conventional and nuclear capabilities.
This process has been going on since 1993. At the same time the US has been objecting to Pakistan’s acquisitions from China and denying its bare minimum defence needs. Blockage of F-16s and close support fund are the recent examples.
In the 1980s, Russia helped India to build its navy. Nuclear powered Chakra submarine and Talwar Frigates fitted with nuclear tipped Brahmo missiles were provided by Russia. Now the US in its bid to dominate Indian Ocean is helping Indian Navy to become a blue water navy. India has developed intermediate range K-4 nuclear ballistic missiles which will be fitted on Arihant submarines. K-5 missiles are also being built.
This will nuclearise Indian Ocean and jeopardise the security of 32 littoral states situated around it. Pakistan will be faced with land based and sea based nuclear and missile threats which will further exacerbate its security. On May 15, India conducted an interceptor missile test of its advanced air defence Ashwin and Israel has provided the technology. These developments have altered the strategic balance and forced Pakistan to counter the newly emerged threat.
Alam is reinforcing Indo-US unjust stance by advising Pakistan not to upgrade its defence capabilities.
It is utterly unfair on part of Alam to equate Pakistan with India by saying both are indulging in arms race and in nuclearisation of the region. His claim that Pakistan is solely responsible for making use of non-state actors is untrue. I am sure he must be knowing who created and supported Mukti Bahini and LTTE, and now who is supporting TTP, BLA, BRA, BLF, and MQM.
I will advise my friend to go through articles written by Indians, or see Pakistan specific programs aired by Indian TV channels. None has ever advised Indian rulers to cut down defence budget, or to show restraint, or to solve Kashmir issue. Jingoism in India against Pakistan is at its peak and so are covert operations in Balochistan, FATA and Karachi by RAW. Arrested Indian naval officer Kal Bhushan Yadav, working for RAW has spilled the beans and reconfirmed Pakistan’s stated position that RAW is deeply involved in destabilizing Pakistan.
RAW agents in dozens are being rounded up and the figure has crossed 400. Combing operation is going on in urban centres to demolish all sorts of foreign networks.
The writer is defence analyst, columnist, author of five books, Director Measac Research Centre, Director Board of Governors Thinkers Forum [email protected]
BhaRAT Infiltration of Journalists, BhaRAT=CPEC ENEMY, Imtiaz Alam, RAW Bribery, Raw-Mossad Axis, SAFMA-RAW Front, Stealth Enemy Journalist
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