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Archive for category NAWAZ SHARIF FAMILY TURPITUDE

Plundering of Pakistan:Reko Diq & Saindak Copper,Gold & Rare Elements Stolen By West in Collusion with Nawaz Sharif

Plundering of Pakistan:Reko Diq & Saindak Copper,Gold & Rare Elements Stolen By West in Collusion with Nawaz Sharif 

Fears grow about Reko Diq Gold mines…Baloch senator says deal offered to China; government denies

 
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Shaheen Sehbai
Wednesday, August 28, 2013
From Print Edition

WASHINGTON: While major world mining and investment companies are preparing to invest big time, big money in Balochistan, specially in the mining sector, suspicions and doubts that the biggest gold mine of Reko Diq may be quietly handed over to China as part of the growing economic ties are also coming to the fore.

 

Official and business circles have been wondering for some time what will happen to the multi-hundred billion dollar Reko Diq gold and copper mines after the world’s largest mining company, Barrick Gold of Canada, was thrown out of Pakistan by the Supreme Court of Pakistan during the PPP regime.

 

But after the recent visit of high level government delegation to China and a flurry of quick MoUs and super-paced exchange of visits, an important leader from Balochistan, former Senator Sana Baloch has alleged publicly that the government has promised these mines to China in a year or so.

 

While the Government leaders strongly denied any deal or any promise made during the Beijing visit, an official Pakistan Government statement assuring that the Reko Diq mines will be given to the highest bidder in an international tender is still awaited.

 

Meanwhile as the wait continues, world mining companies are expecting and waiting for Pakistan to float international the tenders inviting bids for Reko Diq and some are ready to offer more than $100 billion in 30 to 35 years, insiders of the mining industry say.

 

The ousted Barrick Gold had promised less than a billion a year in 56 years but they never shared what they had found during the many years of exploration they did in Reko Diq. What is generally believed is that Reko Diq is bigger than Afghan Aynak mines which were estimated by President Karzai at over $3 trillion.

 

Sana Baloch’s charge has come amid a frenzy of shuttle economic activity between Islamabad and Beijing. A top level economic delegation led by Zhang Xiaoqiang, vice chairman National Development and Reforms Commission (NRDC) is in Islamabad today and was asked by Federal Minister for Planning and Development Ahsan Iqbal to raise ceiling of Chinese investments in Pakistan to $10 billion from present $3 billion.

 

The government has been speaking about Chinese investments of between $18 to $20 billion in Gwadar-Kashgar Highway, the bullet train and Lahore-Karachi Motorway in the coming years but what is not yet been explained is how the Chinese will be repaid for these investments.

 

One form of repayment is now being suspected in the form of handing over the $300 billion plus Reko Diq mines to China on the pattern of the Saindak Copper mines, at almost a throw-away price.

 

Senator Sana Baloch has made this allegation: “Chinese authorities were assured of getting the world’s richest copper-gold deposit, Reko-Diq, by next year – again without following international transparent norms.” “Shady deals in the name of brotherly relations have deprived the people of Balochistan of any benefits they can get from these resources. Not a single contract has ever been made public,” the angry senator from Balochistan says. “I repeatedly requested details of agreements and contracts signed during the Musharraf regime, but to no avail.”

 

The Reko Diq issue is awaiting a decision in the international arbitration forums where the Canadian Barrick Gold has filed cases against Pakistan for compensation. These cases may be decided in a few months and involve only a few million dollars but the world mining market is preparing seriously for bidding for the mines in a big way as these companies realize that Reko Diq offers billions of dollars of profits and financial opportunity for the host country.

 

In one such case, three weeks back the Delloite Finance Corporation of Canada, the single largest professional services organization in the world in 2010, issued a Letter of Interest, through its mining division, to an American mining company preparing for the big tender in a joint venture with a major Australian capital markets investment organization which has at least 10 world class mining companies ready to bid for Reko Diq.

 

Experts fear that if the Government did not opt for a transparent international tender for Reko Diq, hundreds of billions of dollars may be lost in the coming years just like the Saindak Copper mines where Pakistan did not benefit significantly as General Musharraf first gave the mines to China and then extended the deal for another five years.

 

No details of what Pakistan gained are available as against the potential and the promises that were made but Senator Sana Baloch says Gwadar, Saindak, the Duddar Lead-Zinc project and several other such deals are a complete mystery for the common Baloch.

 

He says the multi-billion copper-gold Saindak project is being extracted, without any monitoring in the past 10 years by a Chinese company. “According to official reports, copper-gold worth $633.573m was extracted during 2004-08. The Balochistan government received a paltry two percent share, while half the profits go to Beijing and 48 percent to Islamabad,” he says in an article sent to The News. (see page-6)

 

For Reko Diq the Supreme Court, although in a veiled reference, guided the Government of Balochistan to hold an international tender like the one held in Afghanistan’s Anyak Copper deposit.

 

In the Afghan tender, supervised by the World Bank, eight international companies from many countries had contested. It was globally reported that a Chinese company allegedly tried to bribe a Minister in Afghanistan paying him $30 million but was caught.

 

Experts say if for an investment of up to $20 billion over the next 20 years, the Chinese are handed over the multi-hundred billion Reko Diq mines, in a non-transparent manner, it would be the greatest open and shut robbery and treachery with the country.

 

By getting what is its right, Pakistan can build many motorways and bullet trains on its own, provided the rulers keep the national interest in mind, says one mining expert.

The Plunder of Saindak’s Cooper and Gold

yousaf ajabBy Yousaf Ajab Baloch 

Saindak cooper-gold mine is also included in the Baloch’s  mineral resources that mark Balochistan as a rich land. Despite existence of gold and copper with great amount and value, Baloch nation is unable to benefit from it as because Chinese exploitation of Baloch resources is continued with great assistance of state authorities and establishment. The Saindak production or so-called Baloch share has never been utilized for development of Baloch and Balochistan. 

The  Saindak Copper and Gold mine is  located in Chagi district of Balochistan. Discovery of copper deposits  at Saindak  was made  in 1970s in collaboration with Chinese engineering firm and the feasibility study of Saindak  project was  started in 1975. The Saindak mine was estimated to have ore reserves of 412 million tones containing on average 0.5 gram of gold per ton and 1.5 grams of silver per ton. According to official estimates, the project has the capacity to produce 15,800 ton of blister copper annually, containing 1.5 ton of gold and 2.8 ton of silver.

In 1995, production at Saindak copper and gold mine started with the funding of Government of Pakistan. The Saindak Copper-Gold Project was set up by Saindak Metals Ltd, a company owned by the Pakistan, by the end of 1995 at a cost of PKR 13.5 billion.  In initial trial months, monthly production rate was 1700 tons of copper, 6000 ounces of gold and 12000 ounces of silver. At first the copper was to be refined in China, the technical partner in the project; it was suggested that a refinery be built at Saindak; however, after a decade it has not been done.

The Benazir government closed down the project late in 1995, saying lack of funds to continue project and low price of copper  in international market. The  Nawaz government did not take interest in starting this project. In  addition,  it is  said that state bureaucracy opposed Saindak project over building  the necessary infrastructure , including the RCD Highway section from Dalbandin  to Saindak, taking  the rail to Saindak from Taftan and other facilities. It also remained a big shock for the people of Balochistan when first time a number of Baloch people were employed. It should be noted that above mentioned development was made  merely for the Chinese interest and benefit.

The government of Pakistan In 2002, invited foreign investors to provide funding for the project and  awarded the mining project to the Metallurgical Corporation of China (MCC) Ltd under a 10-year lease due to expire in October 2012.  MCC agreed to pay an annual rent of $500,000 for the mine to the Government of Pakistan. The distribution of profits was according to a formula,  beyond ones understanding. The Chinese company took 75% the Federal government 24% and only 1% of revenue was passed onto the Balochistan Government.

Shortly, the Saindak Copper-Gold Project (SCGP) SCGP is a copper mining project that has been of no use or benefit for the Baloch people. The initial operational agreement between MCC and Government of Pakistan was for 10 years upto 15-Oct-2012. The agreement further extended for a period of 05 years i.e. up to 15-Oct-2017. MCC is running this project through its subsidiary MRDL (MCC Resources Development Company Pvt Limited) registered with Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan.

Unfortunately,  there is  no detailed  examination  of minerals  from  the international laboratory with the  view to know the exact ratio of copper  and gold in the minerals being extracted  from  the Saindak  mines  and there is  no idea of costly ores of  the copper  and gold  being extracted by the Chinese Company. The China has been given free hand to exploit Baloch resources. The minerals valuing billions of dollars are being swindled since the Chinese company invested only 23 million dollars and in return it holds the whole resources of Saindak project and there has not been independent monitoring in the project.

The agreement and handing over the Saindak project has always been against the will of Baloch people, even the so-called governments  have not been consulte , as  last year in 2012 the federal cabinet approved a five year extension in the lease of the Saindak project till 2017.

The company claims to have paid 13.4 million dollars as presumption tax and 6 million dollars surcharges between periods of 2002 to 2012. It also claims provision of jobs to 1600 local people in mining and running the plant. The company says that it is upgrading schools and health services and provides scholarships to students of the area; however, the claims go against the reality. According to the local people the project area is a no go area for Baloch people and employed people in the project   belong to the other provinces or are non-Baloch including presence of Baloch in the project is equal to none. The people in surrounding areas of the village and district say that there is no development in any sector of the life initiated by Chinese company.  The district officials of Chagi confirm  that no money from this project has been utilized for district development.

Ransack of Saindak copper and gold proves that the federation is only interested to exploit Baloch resources with the help of China. This project could bring a great economic change   in the condition of entire Balochistan; even it did not develop the nearby villages and district in last years.

The enormous pillage of copper and gold by China is not justified from the land of Balochistan, as does not return in the shape of development or amount. However, the resistance movement in Balochistan and political struggle justifies that Baloch movement for their rights and ownership of land is right and on the basis of realism. Because the Saindak project is only a single example and we can find numbers of instances in which Baloch people are undervalued and Baloch resources are looted with both ends particularly by China. 

Bibliography:

Lack of Democracy and  Soci-Economic Development of Balochistan: Sheikh  Asad Rahman

Saindak Project on The move: Siddque Baloch

Saindak gold mines again given to Chinese company: Khalid Mustafa

De Unkown Baloch By Mir Mohammad Ali Talpur

The revival of Sandak project : Shamim Ahmed  Rizvi

China digs Pakistan into a hole :By Syed Fazl-e-Haider

China now  wants to gulp Gawadr after digest of  Saindak: Ahmed Khan Baloch

Balochistan’s missing money: Sanaullah Baloch

Published in The Baloch Hal on September 4, 2013

 

 

TCC gives up Reko Diq rights

Published: June 14, 2013

The total area of the Reqo Diq gold mines is said to be spread over 13,000 square kilometres and was valued over $3 trillion. TCC had been given mining rights for only 99 square kilometres. PHOTO: FILE

ISLAMABAD / QUETTA: After losing its case in the Supreme Court of Pakistan, the Tethyan Copper Company (TCC) has turned to pressure tactics and filed compensatory claims in the international arbitration court to regain what it lost in the wake of the court ruling on the Reko Diq gold and copper reserves.

In a press note issued on Thursday, TCC – a consortium of Canada-based Barrick Gold and Chile-based Antofagasta Minerals – said it had decided not to pursue the grant of a mining lease for the Reko Diq reserves, and would seek monetary compensation instead for ‘damages’ inflicted by the federal and Balochistan governments’ alleged breaches of contract and treaty rights.

“Recent developments have regrettably compelled TCC to withdraw the request for specific performance,” said TCC chief executive officer Tim Livesey in his statement.

“TCC invested enormous time, effort and capital in the Chaghai district.”

“Through that investment, we took a small copper exploration target in a previous unexplored segment of the Tethyan belt and developed it into a world class mining project at Reko Diq.” The TCC CEO maintained that while the company had long hoped to mine Reko Diq, the conduct of Pakistan and Balochistan has made that goal impracticable.

“The federal and provincial governments have not responded to our many attempts to engage, have prevented TCC from participating in the development of the new mining sector in the province, and have denied both TCC and the people of Balochistan and Pakistan the enormous benefits that our project would have brought to the country,” he maintained.

“We will pursue our claims for monetary damages, including lost profits for the mining operations, in the international arbitration,” Livesey’s statement concluded.

While determining the amount of compensation TCC may receive in case it is awarded a decision in its favour is a wild guess at this stage, experts say it could range as high as a few billion dollars. TCC’s investment in the exploration and mining of Reko Diq will be the determining factor in case the decision is announced against Pakistan.

According to officials of the Provincial Mines and Mineral Development, TCC had invested around $200 million and expected the damages claims would be just slightly higher.

Some see TCC’s shift from claiming the mining rights of Reko Diq to seeking compensation for damages as a desperate attempt to force the newly-elected government back to the negotiation table.

“TCC is not giving up its so-called mining rights… they were in fact taken away from them by the Supreme Court,” said Raza Kazim, the lawyer who fought the Reko Diq case on behalf of private parties in Balochistan.

He maintained TCC’s move was not a new one. The Canadian High Commission had earlier threatened to take the step in a letter written to the government of Pakistan. Through the letter, the high commission sought an out-of-court settlement, threatening that the ‘biggest award in the history of arbitration’ would be issued against Pakistan if it failed to do so, Kazim said. He added that the letter was placed on the SC record.

In its ruling, a three-judge bench of the apex court, headed by Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, stated that the agreement reached on July 23, 1993 was in conflict with the laws of the country.

The total area of the Reqo Diq gold mines is said to be spread over 13,000 square kilometres and was valued over $3 trillion. TCC had been given mining rights for only 99 square kilometres.

MRDL paid $39.8m in royalties for Saindak since 2003

According to a source, Chinese state-owned mining company MRDL has deposited $39.8 million with the Balochistan government in royalties for the Saindak Copper and Gold Project over the past decade.

A source said MRDL had financed the project by providing $10 million for the rehabilitation of the local population and $15 million as working capital. The company has paid $220 million to the federal government as its share in profit, $6 million as the lease rent of the project, $13.4 million as presumptive tax and $6 million as development surcharge during the period from 2002 to 2012.

 

Published in The Express Tribune, June 14th, 2013.

 

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The old tottering, the new struggling to be born by Ayaz Amir


Islamabad diary: Friday, October 10, 2014 

The old tottering, the new struggling to be born

Ayaz Amir

 

 

 

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Sounds a bit dramatic, the title, doesn’t it? But I get the feeling that hesitantly, without most of us fully realising it, a new history is being written. A country knowing nothing but frustration for long gives the impression of finally turning in its sleep.

For many this is a heady feeling. You can see this in the dharnas. For the status quo classes hiding behind the slogan of democracy this is an alarming development. They don’t seem to have an answer to the questions being raised about the dead politics they represent.

The two leading champions of the traditional politics seem like two faces of the same currency. For all practical purposes, there is little to distinguish the PML-N and the PPP except geography. The former is mainly interested in preserving its fiefdom in Punjab, the latter in Sindh, both under attack from Imran Khan. In some ways this is divine retribution: the Sharifs and ex-president Asif Ali Zardari supping at the same table. The jaundiced observer would say they deserve each other.

Bilawal says Imran Khan should learn politics from the Bhuttos. This is not without its share of humour. At what his successors have made of the PPP, a cousin or B Team of the PML-N, Bhutto would be turning in his grave. Even the blessed of short memory cannot easily forget that the most finished, most advanced product, to come out of Gen Ziaul Haq’s political engineering machine, with which he sought to cleanse Pakistan’s political stables and put the country on the path of righteousness, were the Sharifs.

The old politics is dying because it is past its sell-by date. It is not addressing the concerns of the people. And because Imran Khan and Tahirul Qadri are talking of the injustices and iniquities of the prevailing socio-economic and political order people are listening to them. This is evident in the huge rallies Imran is addressing. The status quo parties can’t make out what’s happening. All they have at their service are clichés about democracy and the constitution. Because they are hollow they don’t make much of an impression.

Democracy was not threatened by the dharnas. It was the old way politics under attack. This entire agitation has stirred both the middle classes which hitherto kept themselves aloof from politics, and the young and rootless who see no future for themselves in the prevailing system. In a matter of weeks the old shibboleths stand discredited, as people asks questions they never had a chance to ask before.

The anti-Ayub agitation of Oct ’68-Mar ‘69 put paid to the controlled ‘democracy’ associated with Ayub Khan’s rule. The anti-Bhutto agitation of 1977 swept aside Bhutto’s populist rule and paved the way for Gen Zia’s military rule and all that he did in the name of Islam. At another of those turning points which take history down a new path, Imran Khan and Qadri, for the most part unwittingly, are becoming the instruments of a new consciousness.

I say unwittingly for when they set out on their separate marches from Lahore they could have had no idea how it would all turn out in six weeks or two months. Their good luck, and the nation’s, was that despite the visible meltdown of federal authority, when power was there for the taking, the army held its hand. A military intervention would have been a godsend for the Sharifs, bestowing on them again, as in 1999, the halo of martyrdom…their shortcomings forgotten.

But when it all looked hopeless for Khan and Qadri, against the odds, against all the dictates of seeming wisdom, they stuck to their guns and turned what looked like certain defeat to the triumph – in the form of the turning of the tide – they are now experiencing. At journey’s beginning Khan was not the all-conquering hero he now appears to be, his march not very impressive when he set out from Lahore. Qadri had the advantage in numbers and organisation.

Behold then the power of determination. Through biting sun and drenching rain the two stuck it out, when lesser men would have given up. How foolish they looked in the beginning, atop their containers, haranguing their followers. What nicknames did they not earn, what ridicule was not heaped on them not least by the punditocracy.

It was not the fault of the pundits. They were in their ivory towers. Imran and Qadri were closer to the pulse and mood of the people. It’s always like this. In the anti-Ayub agitation most of the pundits were on one side, Bhutto on the other. In this narrow sense at least we are seeing history repeating itself.

What happens next, whether the paralysis of government we see now will last indefinitely or premature elections put the Sharifs out of their misery, are matters of detail. The important thing is (1) that the dispensation of the Sharifs stands denuded of authority, the moral right to govern; and (2) it is possible to feel a new mood in the country, one compounded not of cynicism and frustration but hope and enthusiasm. Despite the pundits, the broad reach of television – this a military dictator’s gift, let us never forget – is proving to be another agent of change. Elections may still be stolen. But it won’t be this easy.

Every pantomime has its day. If the finished products of the Zia era were good at anything it was the art of stolen elections. They had some very good tutors and army and ISI then marched to a different tune. The enemy then was the PPP and the good guys were the windbags and toadies of the right put together under the umbrella of the Islami Jamhoori Ittehad by the ISI…and such consummate masters of the political game as my friend Lt Gen Hamid Gul. The popular response to the dharnas, and the public attendance at Khan’s rallies, suggest that the curtains may finally be coming down on this long-standing drama.

The tide when it turns carries all before it. Hitherto unassailable symbols of authority lose their shine; seemingly impregnable walls totter. This is happening with the Sharifs, nothing working right for them, and their authority down to zero.

Imran and Qadri have even changed the discourse of politics. The cry of democracy in danger no longer cuts much ice. Sharif keeps harping on the theme of protecting the constitution. Zardari says he is defending the ‘system’. People are more focused on the corruption and misrule of the political elite, which both the PML-N and the PPP exemplify.

People are just tired of the old faces, as they were tired of Ayub and Zia and Musharraf. In Britain they were tired of Mrs Thatcher in the end and of Tony Blair too when he had been around for too long. There’s just so much the human stomach can stand. The Sharifs have been around for over 30 years.

Does anyone think that people are so dumb that they can’t make out the difference between a more confident India under Narendra Modi and Pakistan under a bumbling dispensation? Does anyone think they have missed noting the difference between Modi’s visit to the United States and our performance there?

Why are people responding to Imran? Not just because of inflated electricity bills but because they want to see strong hands on deck, a leadership of which they can be proud, not a leadership fidgeting with nervousness in front of the likes of President Obama.

Two slogans for the sentiment they captured stand out in our history: the call for Pakistan in 1946-47 and ‘roti, kapra and makan’ in 1970. Now comes a third to rank with them: “Go Nawaz Go”. It has caught the spirit of the times.

Email: [email protected]

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RIGGING TO SUSTAIN DEMOCRACY? by Brig.(Retd) Samson Sharaf

RIGGING TO SUSTAIN DEMOCRACY?

by Samson Sharaf

 

dr-shahid-masood-exposing-35-punctures-story

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The prevailing political chaos in Pakistan is complicated by conflicting narratives. Despite confusion the time for an idea has come. People discern right from wrong.

 

Democracy despite its inefficacy must continue in present format; eventually it would cleanse itself. Establishment/ foreign agencies have hatched a London Plan. The narrative with minor adjustments is also used by parliamentary opposition and the pseudo liberals. Hidden behind this theory are billions of ill-gotten dollars and business empires raised out of nowhere to manifest ambitions of political upstarts and creations of opportunity. Nawaz Sharif’s sojourn in Saudi Arabia gives weightage to his religious credentials. He dislikes the army for putting a spanner in his Jihadist designs. A cartoon best sums up this fallacy with the caption that the Army instead of tanks now uses animals inscribed with ‘Go Nawaz Go’ for regime change.

 

Pakistan is a state with perpetual crises. The military and intelligence agencies are rouge. Without civilian supremacy and clipping of armed forces, Pakistan will remain a threat to neighbours. Ultimately Pakistan’s nuclear weapons will fall into hands of terrorists. Proponents of this theory ignore that for the past six months, Pakistan’s armed forces are fighting the most effective war against terrorism that overshadows the entire duration of ISAF-NATO operations in Afghanistan. The war lacks civil support that would rather sleep with the enemy.

 

Pakistan’s democratic progress is hostage to powerful corrupt and dishonest elites. Over past six decades, they have subverted Jinnah’s social contract with the people. It is time that Pakistanis become true stake holders in the system through transparency. This is the Azadi (freedom) and Inqilab (revolution). Critics maintain that Imran Khan and Dr Qadri are pawns being used to advance an agenda of establishment and foreign powers. As a corollary, another narrative describes the Azadi/Inqilab movement as precursor to anarchy, balkanisation and nuclear disarmament. The biggest merchant of horse trading and bribing General (Retired) Mirza Aslam Beg of Mehran Bank Scandal relishes the limelight to emerge from obscurity as the leader of this notion to help goons he financed and groomed.

 

The print and electronic media initially took a realistic and objective view of the situation. But as time passed, most media houses and anchors took to grilling their panels with some facts, half-truths and falsifications. These discussions sans framework went berserk. If this wild spin is to be believed, then corruption for the sake of giving democracy a chance and civilian supremacy is condonable. Pakistan’s staged encounters killing innocents are a necessary ends means relationship. Imran Khan and Dr Qadri are terrorists and foreign agents who must be tried for high treason.

Pakistan’s commentators and intellectuals are confused. Some have an elastic conscience or harbour personal grudges. Far and few see the entire crises as violation of fundamental human rights and international agreements. Despite accepting rigging as fait accompli, they are unnerving in their expediency to support the status quo.

 

Most human right organisations are biased. The curious silence over state sponsored massacre in Model Town Lahore, excessive use of chemical agents in Islamabad, use of ball ammunition against unarmed protestors, illegal custodies and deaths spell duplicity. Silence means criminal neutrality. Asma Jehanghir, the recent recipient of Alternative Noble Prize is full of hate and venom against this movement. She would rather single out presence of women and children at dharnas (human shields) than challenge death of innocents. Since these protests are premised on the fundamental rights of individuals and sanctity of the ballot, one expected an objective approach. Being a lawyer an ex-president of the Bar, one expected her to vociferously criticise aberrations in the constitution created by Chaudary Courts that led to rigged elections.

 

Perhaps the most despicable are the inactive left and armchair reformists. Their space as advocates of civic conscience has quickly been usurped by the Azadi/Inqilab slogan. These pseudo leftist and liberals insist to demean both leaders at every forum.

 

Daily speeches on the containers talk of the relationship of the people with the state as enshrined in the first three parts of the constitution of Pakistan. They create awareness on social issues mentioning women, labourers, tenants, haris, farmers, students, teachers, low income groups, human resource development, exploitative capitalism, corruption, jobbery, nepotism and injustice. Their oratory flows out of the speeches made by Qaid e Azam Muhamad Ali Jinnah, Islamic history and international charters. Some commentators have laureled them as rightists with a leftist agenda. But Imran Khan is neither left nor right. He is actually re-focussing the centrality of Pakistan’s politics. As the movement gains momentum, it is a foregone conclusion that most trade unions, labour unions and small socialist parties would form tributaries to the sea resigning the intellectuals to armchairs.

 

Lieutenant General Khalid Rabbani’s (the chief counter terrorism commander) talk at National Defence University brings clarity to the confusion and narratives. He stressed on the need to extending operations to the mainland. He hinted that political issues were impeding action against terror groups in Punjab and Balochistan. These operations were delayed for three years due to indecision. Belatedly undertaken, urban operations are limited due to lack of civilian capacity and will. This is an issue repeatedly written by the scribe and also voiced by Ex-Prime Minister Gilani and Major General (R) Athar Abbas. The revelation by a serving general by implication singles out General (R) Kayani and the present government for the strategic impasse. Link this apprehension to the recent statement of Chaudary Shujaat Hussain. A complicity to sustain an agreement reached between foreign powers, PML-N, PPP with the then COAS as guarantor emerges. Three successive tenures is the bottom line.

 

Post-Election Review Report on General Elections 2013, released by Election Commission of Pakistan could not dilute the overpowering role of Returning Officers in making the elections questionable. Limited admissions by ECP in its review are made with the twin purpose of exoneration and hope to hide larger facts. Shall we therefore conclude that Elections 2013 were rigged beyond reasonable doubt but why?  

 

Instability of Pakistan is an important plank for international actors to keep Pakistan pliant. Given a road of healthy democracy and socio-economic development, Pakistan would emerge too independent to be tamed. Thus the electoral logjam must be maintained. Who is right and who is wrong is for readers to judge.  

 

Brigadier (Retired) Samson Simon Sharaf is a political economist and a television anchorperson. Email and twitter: [email protected]

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Metrobus Projects

Metrobus Projects

By

Abbas Hasan, Civil Engineer 

<[email protected]>

metro-bus-rwp

Is it a White Elephant in the Making Or a Billion Dollar Boondoggle To Fill Sharif Family Coffers?

Why are we paying more than Rs 30 billion over international prices for an undersized transport system?.
It’s all about understanding transport network needs and optimizing utilization of height capacity corridors. Otherwise it’s misuse of precious resources without detailed planning.

Just how ‘Fit for Purpose’ are the Metrobus Projects?

Pakistani tax payers should rightly ask why they are paying more than Rs 30 billion over international prices for an undersized transport system?.
As an engineer associated with design and delivery of large infrastructure projects in the Middle East, including a Bus Rapid Transport (BRT) – or what in Pakistan is called Metrobus, I am used to the term “Fitness for Purpose” to describe whether the actual use of an engineered project fulfills the purpose for which it was built.
This term also addresses whether or not the project cost is in line with acceptable benchmarks and highlights under-designed and over-designed projects.
 
During a recent trip to Pindi, I was asked if the Lahore and Rawalpindi Metrobus projects were Fit for Purpose?
To assess the project efficacy, we need to compare the Metrobus’s ridership with overall vehicular trips in Lahore.
With over 350,000 cars and 850,000 motorcycles on the roads of Lahore, congestion, pollution and safety are key issues, the stated purpose of the Metrobus project is to increase the share of public transport in Lahore, and accordingly provide safe, reliable transport.
 
For a city of approximately 7 million population as per the urban transport forum, based on surveys in Lahore, there were approximately 5.3 million trips/day vehicular trips – excluding walking and cycling (at 0.75 trips/person – this incidentally is half as compared to other cities in Asia).
A successfully designed public transport program should aim for at least 20 per cent ridership, whilst the actual daily ridership for the Lahore Metrobus is 180,000 trips/day or 3.3 per cent of the overall, the impact is therefore insufficient in reducing congestion in the city, expect perhaps on that corridor.
The most successful BRT project in the world is the TransMilenio in Bogota Columbia, which has a ridership of 2.2million/day and peak time capacity of over 37,700 trips/direction/hour. In Asia, theGuangzhou BRT has a ridership of 1 million trips/day with a peak capacity of 27,000 trips/direction/hour.
In both these projects, the buses run in separate corridors, mainly at grade without elevated sections. Based on my knowledge of designing similar infrastructure, in its current design format, the Lahore or Pindi metro may not achieve such capacities due to:
• No overtaking provisions at stations eliminating the possibility to use multiple services on the same route, limiting the number of buses per direction.
• Bus stops are not big enough to accommodate several buses within the same stop. Limiting the number of buses that can simultaneously run on the same line.
• Insufficient investment in the bus fleet.
• Insufficient city-wide coverage to attract passengers, it is not a network but only one line, it would have been better to have built a lower cost, but a wider network with more lines and reach across the city.
• No provision of a feeder bus system to ferry passengers not living near the route.
• No linkages with the city’s other mode of transport – bus, rail, air.
• No provisions for transfer stations linking with future lines, as some stations are elevated, building these connections now would be challenging.
• The Metrobus should be an integral part of the overall city transport network and should inform the future development of the city, future public transport corridors should be part of the master plan for all new developments, including DHA, etc.
 
According to the American Public Transport Association BRT infrastructure should cost US $2-18 million/km, the Lahore Metrobus’ infrastructure capital cost is more expensive as compared to international benchmarks.
As per published figures, the infrastructure costs in US$ per kilometer (all costs escalated to 2014) for BRT for various cities are:
  • Ahmedabad, India $3 million/km
  • Dalian, China $4.5m/km
  • Guangzhou, China $6.5m/km
  • Istanbul, Turkey $10m/km
  • Bogota, Columbia (new phase) $13.3m/km
  • Lima, Peru $10m/km
  • Los Angeles, USA $ 14.4m/km
 
Given lower labour costs in Pakistan and averaging the above figures, a fair estimate for infrastructure costs should be approximately $5-7m/km.

Therefore, at $11m/km, the Lahore Metrobus cost wise is substantially higher than the benchmark.


Although there is no evidence of corruption or any wrong doing, it is the expensive design and accelerated delivery that may have led to the price escalation.
 
 
Once major projects are completed, a “lessons learnt” exercise is nomally held so that future projects learn from and improve upon the previous one. The lessons learnt exercise should have included why earlier bus services such as the Lahore Volvo bus and the Pindi Varan bus are no longer running; was it due to a non-sustainable business model, high fuel costs, lack of spare parts and replacement of the fleet, poor governance or road congestion?
Unfortunately, this was not done and the newly started Rs 50 billion Pindi Metrobus project, seems to repeat the same mistakes as the earlier Lahore one.
 
 
It is not clear how the Pindi Metrobus strategically fits in the overall transport master plan, whether this project is for commuters to Islamabad; or for residents of Rawalpindi and Islamabad? Globally 80 per cent of commuters use trains (both over ground and underground) as the preferred means of travel (trains regularly reach speeds of 100 kph and carry up to 800 passengers per train, unlike buses that travel at 25 kph and carry 100 passengers).
At current growth rates by 2035 Pindi-Islamabad will have a combined population of approximately five million, given that most of whom will not be able to afford living in Islamabad, and that the extended city would stretch from Hasanabdal, Fatehjang to Mandra, the transportation master plan should take cognizance of that in its design intent.
If we look at costs, as stated previously the cost of the Pindi Metrobus should not be approximately $6m/Km as compared to the actual estimated cost is Rs 50 billionn for 24.5 km or $20 million/km.
Based on surveys approximately. 200,000 vehicles/day travel from Pindi to Islamabad or 550,000 (persons) trips take place daily between the two cities, if we assume a 50 per cent capture for public transport then, today, the designed capacity of the Metrobus should be at least 300,000 trips/day as opposed to the current stated capacity of 150,000.
If we project this volume 10 years hence, it will underline that the Metrobus is significantly undersized and should be able to reach a capacity of approx. 500,000 trips/day.
 
 
The Metrobus is an excellent idea and the Punjab government should be appreciated for its effort in initiating and implementing this project in a record time, but unfortunately it is also a symptom of afailing system whereby there is no independent regulatory authority to challenge the provincial government’s project intent, and safeguard public interest.
More time should have been given to studies (including environmental), planning and design rather than hurried implementation. The tax payers of this country should rightfully ask,
Why are they paying more than Rs 30 billion over international prices for an undersized transport system?
It may be still not be too late for the government to reassess the project and carry out a value engineering exercise to ruthlessly cut costs and maximise value for money, at the same time modify the design to maximise the systems passenger carrying capacity. It should also evaluate how this fits in the overall city master plan, assess actual current and future demands versus existing capacity in the proposed system.
In my opinion, the public hearing process should be strengthened, where in the hearings the business model is explained, to appreciate what additional investment would be needed to fund and operate the vehicle fleet, what is the correct ticket price and how an independent accountable management structure is in place to sustain this investment.
The regulatory system needs to be strengthened so that government entities are not allowed to brow beat regulators into hurriedly approving projects, Pakistan is a poor country and deserves affordable, properly designed, infrastructure that is “Fit for Purpose”.
 
 
The author is a civil engineer and an avid cricket fan who earns his living in the gulf.
He can be reached on email at [email protected]. Follow him @A3bbasHasan

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The Shows goes on. By Mahfooz ur Rahman

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The Shows goes on.

“ As flies to wanton boys are to the gods

They kill us for sport .” Shakespeare’s “ King Lear  “

Mahfooz ur Rahman

 

 

 

 

 

 

Writing on Pakistan’s politics is beginning to be a tedious affair . It is a play that has no plot , no beginning and no end . No excitement from the drab and dreary humdrum of everyday life . Winning or losing , the same old , tired and worn out faces are to be seen adorning the newspapers or the TV Channels . Even the daily newspapers are pictures of the gloomy atmosphere .

Each political party is a fiefdom of its own where the fiat of big or petty  ‘monarch’  is abided by or else the defiant ones are crushed . There is no notion of shadow governments or shadow  cabinets . That is a play that is going on since Mr. Jinnah departed from the scene in 1948 . Talking about reforms is an illusion .    

Imagine a scene in which you are trying to sleep during the day and a bird flits and begins to sing . Whatever you  do to make it fly away turns out to be  futile . You are really mad at the innocent creature . The world is seeing the discomfiture of the present Government . It is standing static unable to drive the ghosts of Imran Khan and Taher ul Qadri . It has been reduce to a passive mode , a reaction mode . Meanwhile the two are making further inroads into the interior of the country , into the cities and into various communities or eg . farmers , workers none the less  equipped legally to which the Government has no answer except to hurl abuses at them .

“ Never trust the wisdom of a slave “ is an oft quoted advice perhaps by Hazrat Ali ( May Allah be pleased with him) . Here I reproduce an incident  about which I wrote in my article “ Buttering “  . In a meeting held in Islamabad , a participant referred to the department’s newly announced policy and also to the Battle of Badr ,which was fought on 17th Ramazan and in which the Muslims were victorious by the Grace of Allah . He said , addressing the boss ,that the Battle of Badr was fought on 17thRamazan and he( the boss)  announced the country’s policy on 17th Ramazan . All the participants were dumbfounded at his audacity .

Thus Pakistan has been caught at a vortex . Democracy  in its present shape has failed in Pakistan . It has never delivered however its supporters otherwise  claim . It suits the robber barons , the landed aristocracy, the major and small capitalists who  plunder  the exchequer and exploit the under privileged ones . There was a time when twenty two families used to hold sway in the country . The twenty two have swelled to much more .   

During my four months stay in an European city  forty years back, a man who had features like a Pakistani or an Indian , used to cross my path both mornings and evenings . One day , I stopped him to question about his nationality . His reply “ does it matter “ put me off . He repeated his observation and went on to say that when the purpose of making Pakistan could not be fulfilled , it did not matter whether I was  a Pakistani or an Indian .

A solid advantage has been achieved  by the fifty two day sit in  by  the duo of Imran Khan and Taher ul Qadri . Apart from being unique in the 67 years history of Pakistan and , perhaps the world over  , the rest of the major political parties were clean bowled , the batsmen could only gape in awe . Never in the history of this unfortunate land , they met their equals who badly exposed them  ,  disrobed them and shown the rest of the people what they actually were by using the facilities of telecasting their views  provided by an army general , Pervez  Musharraf . They robbed the common people of their Fundamental Rights enshrined in the Constitution . You may not like Imran Khan and Dr. Qadri  . But it is difficult to disagree whatever they had to say because both Imran and Dr. Qadri were speaking of the basic  rights and the   Constitution . And it was last year when the latter held a five day sit in in Islamabad to emphasize the futility of participating in the elections unless all candidates were screened through Articles 62 and 63 of the Constitution .      

The ‘independent’ Election Commission of Pakistan has lost its trust from the rigged elections between Field Marshal Ayub Khan , the President ,and Mohtarma Fatima Jinnah , the sister of the Founder of Pakistan and  onwards . Henceforth , it was viewed as another arm of the Government . The 18th Amendment to the Constitution did not remove the impression . On the contrary , the reconstituted Commission was viewed as a part of the Charter of Democracy signed by Mrs . Benazir Bhutto , the leader of the Peoples Party , and Mian Nawaz Sharif , the leader of the Pakistan Muslim League in London during the “ oppressive days  of the dictator , General Musharraf“ .

Where do we go now ?

Both the Government and the people are confused and lacking in direction . We are rotten to the core horizontally and vertically ie from the top to the bottom .  Army intervention is not a permanent solution as we have seen in the past .  It breeds many evils for eg. flight of capital . Even then some well meaning people are suggesting a government of the Technocrats under the army’s umbrella  to replace the current government  and cleanse the  entire society . This experiment has been tried by every military regime .  Ayub Khan screened out 72 bureaucrats , General Yahya Khan 303 and Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto 1300 . Some of the screened out officers were not corrupt . To cleanse the society of ills , the Hadood Ordinance was introduced but  never used after General Zia , the President , died . 

There is talk of mid term polls in the country .   The present government is unwilling to resign and call for fresh elections . However , if it does , which Election Commission would be willing to undertake the task when the present one  failed to hold free and fair elections the task of that Statutory organization . In its “ Post Election Review Report on General Elections 2013 “ , the Commission admitted its failure .

Under the 18th Amendment , the leader of the House  i.e. the Prime Minister , and the leader of the Opposition in the National Assembly are supposed to choose of the Chairman of the Election Commission . But the experiment failed  in the previous elections and with both the leader of  the House and the leader of the opposition under clouds . Both Imran Khan and Dr. Qadri and their supporters  will no longer trust them .

 Pakistan is ripe for  constitutional ( Fundamental Rights and Articles 62 and 63 ) and social reforms without which any elections will be meaningless .

In the end I will reproduce the views of Mr . Mumtaz Piracha of the Good Governance Forum  

“ Contrary to general perception, I believe the long march and the dharna by PTI, in particular, highlighted bad governance in Pakistan. Look at the foreign media and you will find that there is only passing reference to rigging allegations and the allegation on military to have backed Imran Khan and Tahir-ul-Qadri but there is tremendous focus on the way Nawaz Sharif governs, the Sharifs’ dynastic politics and the PMLN’s performance since last elections. The domestic media have been more focused on rigging allegations but bad governance also remained in focus “.

 Mahfooz ur Rahman

Islamabad

October 5, 2014

 

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