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Archive for category Nawaz ‘s Dauphin

TWO LIARS OF KARGIL WAR – NAWAZ SHARIF & INDIA & GENERAL MUSHARRAF: A MAN WHO SPOKE THE TRUTH

Pakistani forces cross the Line of Control and capture several peaks on the Marpola ridge in Indian occupied Kashmir, thus setting off the Kargil conflict. The peaks captured by Pakistan were Point 5353, Bunker Ridge, Dalu Nag, Tiger Hill and Saddle Ridge and allows direct accurate artillery fire up to 20 kilometers of the Srinagar-Leh Highway. The peaks also has the ability to cripple Indian defensive positions from Mushkoh to Bhimbet. Following the capture of the peaks, an Indian attempt to regain control of the 5 peaks failed with India only managing to capture Tiger Hill – later Indian Lieutenant-General Kishan Pal, who was then the head of the Srinagar-based 15 Corps, says India has failed to consolidate its tactical gains and that the Kargil War was a strategic loss for India.

Pakistan shot down two Indian fighter jet which violated Pakistani airspace during the Kargil conflict.
Defending Point 5353
"It's 3 O'Clock...time to wake up the Indians"

TWO LIARS OF KARGIL WAR – NAWAZ SHARIF & INDIA

 

 

 

 

 

Nawaz Sharif and India have one trait in common, both lie to protect their failures. India lied about Kargil defeat.

Nawaz Sharif and his PMLN members lie about Pakistan Army’s Kargil War Victory.

Every Jiyala of PMLN will tell you Kargil War was a Failure.

Indian Army Chief of Kargil War wants to Forget It!

Nawaz Sharif’s reason behind this chicanery is that he did not want to give credit to Pakistan Army under the leadership of Gen.(Retd) Pervez Musharraf for thrashing the Indian Army at the heights of Kargil, which resulted in killing 3,000 Indian Army soldiers and officers. Gen.(Retd) Musharraf may have a thousand flaws, but, Kargil War was his finest hour. Gen(Retd) Aziz and Gen(Retd) Musharraf played a stroke of genius in Kargil War Strategy. Pakistan’s Political Pundits demonize him and due to personal bias portray him as responsible for a Kargil “fiasco.”  If Kargil War was a fiasco for Pak Army, then, the question arises,why did IndiaCourt Martial several GOCs and Corp Commander of Indian Army, XV Corp ?:

 

Indian Heavy Losses in Kargil War Are Remembered

in Huge Monument Build to Honour Over 3,000 Kargil War Dead

 

 

“But the General has not shared the lapses and neglect of responsibilities of the Army leadership, particularly of the sector commanders, and to an extent, his own. Some of these are by now, well known, including the mindset of the 15 Corps Commander, Lt Gen Krishan Pal, who insisted that there were only a handful of infiltrators 60 to 80 and that none of them was a Pakistani soldier. He committed troops without allowing them adequate weapons and strength, and if facts given by Lt Gen Y M Bammi in a book are taken into account, he punished an officer, Brig Devinder Singh, who wanted better preparations insisting that there were a large number of Pakistani soldiers inside the Indian territory.
The officer had eight battalions under his charge, and by all accounts, he fought very well, leading the troops from the front. Gen Malik himself has been seen and heard praising this officer at various fora. Yet, Brig Devinder Singh’s career was cut short to save those who were wrong.
To recall, the biggest players of the Kargil War were:
The Government at the highest echelon of the Political Leadership;
The top rung of the military leadership – The Army Chief, GOC-in-C Northern Command, 15 Corps Cdr , and the 3 Div Cdr. The intelligence agencies, primarily the Intelligence Bureau (IB) and Research and Analysis Wing (RAW). The Indian Air Force (IAF) and its exercise of Air Power.
The dedicated and committed soldiers and the middle and junior level officers.

(Reference: http://defence.pk/threads/the-kargil-conflict.50085/”)

 

http://zeenews.india.com/news/nation/india-forgetting-1999-kargil-victory-against-pak_790440.html

 

His Two Pronged Approach to Stop Kargil War

Nawaz Sharif’s objectives were to promote his business interest in India, a larger market for his Ittefaq Industries products. He wanted to save India and Indian Army from humiliation from this ignominious defeat. He used a two-pronged approach, 1) Stop the War and Prevent Pakistan Army to Make Gains in Kargil sector, which may make Indian Army’s Movements under Pakistan Army Observation Posts. Thus allowing Pakistan Artillery to cause serious damage to India convoys providing supplies to units in Kashmir. 2) To make Pakistan Army look weak, humiliated, bungling, and a “rogue” organization. This would give Nawaz and his party to keep Pak Army on the defensive and not interfere in national affairs, no matter how much corruption Nawaz and his friends do. Historically,

Nawaz Sharif, A CIA Asset

Nawaz Sharif is a CIA’s major asset in Pakistan’s political scene. He is weak, easily intimidated, cowardly, incompetent, and in times of crisis gets a “mind freeze.” He cannot handle crisis well and that can be seen in his vacillation and foot dragging against TTP. He is co-dependent on CIA and gets his direction through their position papers and relies heavily on their analyst. Even today, Sartaj Aziz, the Octogenarian is in Washington to get direction from Secretary John Kerry.

 

Nawaz Sharif’s Mortal Fear of Losing Business in India & His Own Life

 

During Kargil War, Nawaz Sharif was morbidly afraid of Indian intrusion across the international boundary in Lahore. His fears most likely included capture of Lahore and his own arrest by the Indian Army. All of the above factors resulted in his mad dash to President Clinton to stop, “Pakistan Army,” which he could not do, from further escalation and consolidation in Kargil.

Nawaz Sharif does not care an iota about Pakistan or its people. His interests lies in survival and accumulation of wealth and power. Nawaz Sharif is a Pakistani “Banya,” who has a Banya Mentality. His upbringing by a corrupt father, who accumulated enormous wealth and went from a small brick Kiln foundry to acquisition of Pak Army’s major asset. The Ittefaq Foundry.

Nawaz Sharif is the causative agent for withdrawal of Pakistan Army from Kargil, which resulted in the only causalities due to their exposure to forward observers of Indian Artillery. Thus Nawaz snatched, a defeat from victory. He is responsible for all the Shahadats of the extremely brave NLI and Sindh Regiment soldiers, when they were asked to pull back. Nawaz Sharif has PAK ARMY BLOOD on his hand. He has also demonized Pak Army through a whispering campaign by PMLN Jiayalas, that Kargil War was a defeat for Pak Army. He knows the truth. One day, that truth will catch-up to Nawaz, when he and his whole family may have to pay for it with their own blood. India is having a hard time swallowing Kargil defeat, in spite of heavy losses and post defeat embarasment, Indian Army continues to console itself, by reading false and concocted reports by Indian Media.

As usual, Pak Media was asleep at the wheel and due to its hatred of Pakistan Army for its meddling in politics, Pak media could not digest Pakistan Army’s finest hour and went along with lies and snake oil which India and Nawaz Sharif were selling.

 

 

The Story of Kargil

The Story of Kargil

In the summer of 1999, a 73-days military conflict was fought at Kargil unveiling new insights into an asymmetric conflict wherein opposing combatants employ markedly different resources and strategies in order to maximize their advantages and exploit the opponent’s weaknesses. Kargil is situated at 2704 meters above sea level, 204 km east of Srinagar, 234 km west of Leh, and is the second largest urban center of Ladakh and the headquarters of the district that shares its name. The confrontation was manifestation of a 50 year-old Kashmir dispute that remained limited in terms of time, geographical area, and weaponry. The operation at Kargil was planned meticulously by the top Pakistani army establishment in a bid to capture the deserted heights in the Valley left by Indian army during the inhospitable weather conditions and then taking control of the vital Srinagar-Leh highway. The Pak army contemplated that by capturing the strategic heights they will be in a commanding position to get the status of the Line of Control (LoC.) altered. Pakistan army however, underestimated the response and repulsing of India, which with Indian air strikes became too vehement to be restrained by the Pakistan army as the bunkers at the outstanding heights were holed up in the and their logistic support was cut off. Moreover, the international pressure was too paramount to be overlooked by Pakistan.

The whole area of Kargil belonged to Pakistan. It was captured by India in the war of 1965, but restored to Pakistan under Tashkent Agreement. In the 1971 war, Kargil was again occupied and retained by India by dint of force. Thus categorically speaking, the seeds for the 1999 operation along the Srinagar-Dras-Somat-Kargil-Dungul Leh highway were planted way back when the Indian Army High Command had ventured to lance across the 1949 UN Ceasefire Line in Kashmir and renamed it as the Line of Control in December 1972. In 1984, India violated even the LoC and sneaked into Siachin, part of the northern areas of Jammu and Kashmir, when our top brass was caught off-guard as it was deeply involved in reigning the country at the cost of their strategic and professional acumen and capability. Militarily and economically, for India, the Siachin campaign is much more costlier estimated to be more than Rs. 7,000 crores (70 million rupees) to maintain its hold on the useless Siachin Glacier heights where the confrontation between the two hostile armies is like fighting of two bald men over a comb”. Even the Indian media admit that the Indian losses in Siachin and Kashmir are unprecedented and higher than even the wars of 1962, 1965 and 1971. However, holding the Siachin Glacier is important to India, to support her long-term strategy in the area by cutting off the land-route between Pakistan and China. To occupy the Siachin Glacier, India violated the Line of Control in Kashmir as well as the Simla Agreement that she refers to at oft-times. When India moved her troops into the Siachin Glacier area a decade ago, India was unambiguously the aggressor but it did not evoke much interest in the western capitals. But as soon as the Kargil expedition threatened India’s hold on the Siachin Glacier, America and the Western world instantly rushed to her aid.

Kargil operation was downright an upshot of the Kashmir dispute. Kashmir is both cause and consequence of the India-Pakistan conflict and conundrum. From historical, geographical, cultural and strategic point of view, Pakistan could not remain aloof from the question of liberty of over 13 million people of Kashmir. Hence Pakistan has always been obliged and committed to support the Independence movement of the downtrodden people of Kashmir and get the issue resolved as soon as possible so that they could get their right of self-determination. Kashmir has contributed to the overall dispute between India and Pakistan, observes an American Journalist, Stephen Philip Cohen, in several way. The military establishments on both sides of the border insist that control over Kashmir is critical to the defense of their respective countries. The Indian army, echoing nineteenth century British geopolitics, claims that giving up the mountainous Kashmir would expose the plains of Punjab and Haryana, and even Delhi, to foreign (in this case, Pakistani) attack. The Valley is strategically important because of the communication links that run through it to Ladakh and to Siachin, where the Indians and Pakistanis remain frozen in conflict. The threat to Kargil, in 1999, was more serious than Siachin, because it overlooked the already perilous road from Srinagar to Siachin and Leh. Pakistan has a quite different view of Kashmirs geopolitics. Its strategists point out that for years the major access roads to Kashmir led through what is now Pakistan, and that the proximity of the capital, Islamabad, to Kashmir makes it vulnerable to an Indian offensive along the Jhelum river. Further, Pakistanis argue that the inclusion of Kashmir would give it a strategic depth that Pakistan otherwise lacks. . . Finally, Kashmir is the source of many vital South Asian rivers, including the Indus and the famous five rivers of the Punjab: Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas and Sutlej. . . The second Kashmir, found in the minds of politicians, strategists, and scholars, is a place where national and sub-national identities are ranged against each other. The conflict in this Kashmir is as much a clash between identities, imagination, and history, as it is a conflict over territory, resources and peoples. Competing histories, strategies, and policies spring from these different images of self and other.

The people of Kashmir have been fighting against Indian occupation for the last 51 years. Exceedingly disappointed with the fate of the UN resolution that guaranteed their basic right for freedom and the Indian Governments deceitful tactics and later on their claim of Kashmir as their atoot ung, the Kashmiri Muslims started their freedom movement against all the means and powerful machinery of coercion, aggression and regimentation of 700,000 Indian troops. As Pakistans nuclear weapons capability grew, the sub-conventional war in the valley kept escalating. The uprising in Kashmir turned out to be more persistent when the Kargil heights were occupied and held intrepidly by the freedom fighters who took the Indian troops by surprise and beat them with strategic ramifications. India’s sharp reaction to the Kargil operation was based on three major factors. Firstly, there was a change in the tactics, as instead of the usual hit-and-run tactics of the guerrilla fighters the Kashmiri freedom fighters were for the first time holding ground and defying the Indian army to attack and suffer losses. Secondly, they were interdicting the Srinagar – Kargil – Leh supply route that provided the main logistics support for the Indian troops holding the Siachin Glacier. The Indian troops at Siachin ran short of fuel for heating and ammunition Supplies, as for winter they couldnt stockpile during the few summer months. Thirdly, the Indian elections were not far off and the present caretaker Indian government was earnestly keen to take advantage of the Kargil situation to gain some extra seats.

As usual, our freedom fighters successfully attempted a direct and frontal approach to this extra-ordinary military operation. With an abiding faith in their ability to make deep inroads and cut off road arteries, they showed their mind-boggling skills realizing that the poorly led strong Indian army being too busy killing and kidnapping innocent Kashmiri civilians, had not still occupied the high ground (18,000 to 21,000 feet) India had captured during the 1971 war. The Freedom fighters changed their tactics and entrenched themselves above the road which links Srinagar to Leh in Indian occupied Ladakh. By taking the heights overlooking Kargil and Drass the freedom fighters had placed the Indian army at a tactical and strategic disadvantage. The Kargil sector extends to about 150 km, with Drass at one end and Batalik at the other. The intrusions of freedom fighters covered over 100 km of the Kargil sector. Tactically the heights were difficult to clear. Strategically forced to concentrate troops at Kargil for the safety of Siachin, India had unbalanced herself. Kargil is at the extreme end of two vulnerable supply routes. By concentrating 30,000 troops there, other areas were denuded where freedom fighters activity had increased, as in the Kashmir valley and on the Srinagar-Jammu road. India was so much baffled that at first it denounced the freedom fighters as Taliban of Afghanistan and Pakistani infiltrators. These accusations found a favorable response in the Western press. As India’s military position in Kargil did not improve, the freedom fighters were re-classified as Pakistan Army personnel. This was a crude attempt to cover up Indian Army’s operational failures in Kargil and to catch the attention of the West. India succeeded in both her objectives. The armed confrontation in Kashmir was certainly a source of some concern to the world community as both sides have nuclear weapons though the fighting was restricted to shelling across the Line of Control. The warriors had occupied areas that were not held by Indian troops. The main targets for Kargil Operation were to a) Occupy approximately 700 sq km area on the Indian side of the LoC in Kargil-Turtuk Sector, b) Interdict Srinagar-Kargil-Leh Road, c) Capture Turtuk and cut off Southern and Central parts of Siachin Glacier Sector, and d) Intensify freedom fighters activities in J&K

It was extremely astonishing for Indians how a number of Indian intelligence agencies–RAW, SSB, Intelligence Bureau, Military Intelligence, Air Force Intelligence, Kashmir Police, etc., operating along the cease-fire line utterly failed to spot the concentration of Freedom fighters on one mountain range above the Dras-Kargil road. It was enigmatic how the strong Indian army, after 30 days of skirmishes with a band of few hundred freedom fighters entrenched on one mountain had to scout around the world for artillery and other ammunition as there was headline in the Indian Express of June 3, 1999: “India shops abroad for ammunition”. It was further amazing that India had to deploy a force of 50,000 soldiers in an attempt to dislodge a lightly armed band of a couple of hundred freedom fighters, a mind boggling ratio of 250 to 1, bogged down on the ground despite the passage of one full month of combat under Indian Air force and artillery cover.

Intriguingly, the freedom fighters, gave a tough time to the Indian troops repulsing their repeated efforts to regain territory for more than seventy days. Since India was a victim of intrusion, and exercised maximum restraint, it was determined to get the intrusion vacated. Like an injured serpent Indian forces were vicious in their attacks and were desperately wanted to open a war front of its choice elsewhere in Azad Kashmir or on the international border with Pakistan in order to avoid bloody artillery duels, which were growing day by day. India employed about two divisions (including about 250 artillery guns) on the Kargil front, and mounted 1,200 fighter and 2,500 helicopter sorties. Consequently, the supply routes were cut off by aerial bombings. Military operations cannot be managed without adequate logistics support and effective arrangement of enforcements. Unfortunately that support and ample enforcements, which are needed on regular basis, were not properly arranged with the result that Pakistan had no alternative but to call a truce also due to the cumulative American presure. The Prime Minister of Pakistan met the U.S. President on July 4, 1999 and agreed to use his influence with the freedom fighters to stop the fighting in Kargil and withdraw from the heights cutting off India’s strategic supply route from Srinagar to Kargil. In the joint statement signed by President Clinton and the Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif it was once again agreed that concrete steps would be taken for the restoration of the Line of Control in accordance with Simla Agreement. The War ended on 26 July 1999 when all Pakistani troops were finally evicted from our side of the LoC.

Thus the ending of the tactical maneuver failed to produce positive results though according to a prominent general-turned-analyst, the top brass believed that they had almost forced India to concede to negotiations with Pakistan on the Kashmir dispute and would have succeeded had the army been allowed to continue on its tactical adventure. The crux of the mater is that the Army secretly planned and started the execution of this operation without considering all its pros and cons. They did not bother even to inform the premier of the State about what they were going to do and give him enough time to proceed with diplomatic move and take into confidence the people of Pakistan. Neither he could gain moral support of brotherly and friendly countries like Arab and China. On the other hand, India concentrated on a diplomatic offensive to isolate Pakistan and succeeded owing to her economic potential as a market for world goods particularly in purchase of military hardware. Furthermore, India helped to create war hysteria in their country by whipping up the so-called threat and not only threatened Pakistan to cross the Line of Control but also moved troops to the Pakistan border.

In Pakistan, issues like Afghanistan, Indo-Pak relations, Kashmir and nuclear capability are areas of special concern to the military. The political leadership- when there is a civilian government – is either not briefed adequately or finds it difficult to assert on such matters. This is historical, almost traditional, and is expected to continue for an indefinite period. According to some independent analysts, Gen. Musharraf was over-assertive at the expense of the credibility of the elected political leadership. He didnt expect that this operation could ultimately boomerang on Pakistan. Mr. Azhar Abbas said in an article in the May (1999) issue of the Herald, the monthly journal of the Dawn group: The assumption here (in Pakistan) is that India cannot respond to this kind of (covert) warfare with a conventional attack on Pakistan…. Several retired Army officers believe that the new Army Chief is far more assertive than his predecessor (Gen. Jehangir Karamat) and, in the event of the Nawaz Government taking issue with the new doctrine, is unlikely to bow out as easily as Karamat. This points to troubled civil-military relations in the future….” The article concludes: Skeptics are already warning that in the guise of changing threat perceptions and bailing out the (internal) system, the Army may only be searching for a new power-sharing formula after the dissolution of the infamous Troika. If the Army’s new doctrine is, indeed, little more than the quest for a new power-sharing arrangement, it is time for the Nawaz Government to disillusion the Army….If the Government fails to do that, in the words of Dr. Eqbal Ahmad (a highly-respected Pakistani analyst), this change of threat perception can cost us, in the long run, our entire future.” As in the past, Pak military-bureaucratic elite saw it as a threat to its importance, supremacy and status in the national power structure. By launching the war in Kargil, it was able to assert its authority and also revive national and international interest in the J&K dispute. According to a top army source, the Kargil operation was planned months in advance and kept a top secret that was confined to a very few top army officers. The Pak Chief of Army Staff (COAS), Chief of General Staff (CGS), Director General Military Operations (DGMO), GOC 10 Corps and GOC Force Commander Northern Area (FCNA) who was made overall anchorage of operations in the Kargil sector were the only ones aware about the actual operation. Even the Corps Commanders were not kept in picture. It suggested that only an “in principle” concurrence without any specifics be obtained from the Pak Prime Minister. The Pak army thought that the operation would help in internationalizing the Kashmir issue.

The Pakistani public was also taken in by the confounding news reports of the press that played rather heinous role in relating fabricated stories of valiant victories on the battlefield by which the nation was elated and electrified but then all of a sudden was shocked and dismayed and depressed when it felt humiliated and betrayed as if somehow the Pakistani political leaders had grabbed defeat from the jaws of military victory. In an article published in The News, a commander of the Pakistani based Muhajideen told the reporter that their plan was first to take “Kargil, then Srinagar, then march victorious into Delhi.” On May 7, 1999, The Nation abruptly reported a huge attack from India, and claimed that it had been repulsed. It said that Indian forces had launched an unprovoked attack in the Shyok sector, and that “valiant Pakistani troops, displaying traditional courage and determination to defend every inch of the country’s territory, thwarted the attack in which a large number of intruders were killed and several others injured. The Indian Army withdrew in disarray and even failed to retrieve the bodies of its soldiers….” Captions like “Kargil: Revenge for 71″ bewildered the nation that was quite unaware of the real facts that ultimately boomeranged on Pakistan. Perhaps it might become a revenge for 71, had the top brass not been over-assertive and not planned the operation behind closed doors. It is a pity to say that even the Air Marshal was not taken into confidence. That is why he refused to take action when in the absence of Pak Air Force, Indian air force deployed its MIG 21, 23 and 2 Mirage 2000 aircraft and M.I.17 gunship helicopters and not only Cluster bombs but even chemical bombs were used with their devastating effect. Though there had been no mentionable advancement of the Indian army despite the innumerable daily sorties by 100 fighter planes and their continuous shelling for more than a month, yet for how long could the freedom fighters resist indiscriminate shelling of Indian Air Force while there was no counter attack of the Pak Air Force?

Although Indias case on Kargil was flimsy, India succeeded to gain the favor whereas Pakistan failed to bring round the world opinion and even our close allies, like China and the Arab countries, to fully support its viewpoint. Pakistan and China have common security concerns as well, but it is apparent that our diplomatic corps has not done well. There is no denying the fact that the failures and mistakes made in Kargil are still unknown to the innocent citizens who repeatedly suffer mental shocks when their high and sanguine hopes are dashed to the ground. We have to follow a piece of advice posed by Hegel and Toynbee that access to information about past mistakes and successes and their consequences can guide decision makers and citizens as they chart a course into the next millennium between diplomacy and disaster.

The Kargil war, fought on a limited scale, at the turn of the century, however, was not altogether a flop or failure as the Indians impress upon the world. It left a deep impact; its lessons are indeed imperative and may be taken as a useful input when we discuss future Indo-Pak relations, or peace and stability in South Asia:

  • The Indians should not take lightly the competence and capability of the Pak Army and must remember that they were caught napping on the heights of Kargil. And in Siachin as well the Pakistan Army is giving a good account of itself.
  • Now there is no denying the fact that the resistance movement in Kashmir is a national movement, and there is no way out but to admit this fact. In the recent past, India tried its best to raise a smoke screen on the issue, but the battle of Kargil has dispelled it once for all. M. J. Akbar, the Editor of an Indian paper Asian Age, in his article “The Blind Hawks of BJP”, published on June 5, 1999 writes: “Pakistan does not have to take Kashmir to the United Nations; it is already there. Its job is only to activate forcefully.” Brahma Chelleney, the columnist of another Indian daily Hindustan Times, writes in its issue of June 2, 1999, under the caption “Blundering on Kashmir”: “From Nehru to Vajpayee a short-sightedness has sired mistake after mistake on Kashmir. It was not Pakistan that internationalized Kashmir but Nehru…….If the international attention on Kashmir after the sub-continents overt mechanisation was a diplomatic bonanza to Islamabad, Kargil is a diplomatic coup for it. It puts Kashmir on the front burner.”
  • Indias frenzied military preparedness is being slated by all the sagacious elements. Nobel Peace Laureate Mairead Maguire expressed his disgust saying: “Is it not insanity that India’s Government currently the third or fourth most powerful military machine in the world continues to waste so many resources on militarism while so many of their people are in need of the basic necessities of life? Yes, it is insanity”.
  • India spent nearly Rs 30 crore (US$ 6.9 million) per day during the Kargil War. Pakistans expenditure would have been fairly close to that.
  • Indians, after Kargil, have started taking greater interest in national security matters with the result there was a 28 per cent increase in the defence budget soon after the War, and about 10 per cent increase in the year 2001.
  • The Pak economy is also under tremendous pressure after Kargil. It was forced to cap its defence budget. The reduction of Pak defence budget, however, is unlikely to have any significant impact on the Indian defence budget. India is likely to maintain its defence expenditure between 2.5 to 2.75 per cent of its GDP in the foreseeable future to meet modernization demands of its armed forces.
  • No major breakthrough can be expected on Kashmir dispute in the coming years unless both the countries are prepared to change their stance. This was the fourth war over the dispute of Kashmir, not counting the ongoing skirmishes in Siachen Glacier area. That makes it crystal clear that the Kashmir problem cannot be resolved militarily by Pakistan or India. Kashmir issue is not a conflict between Pakistan and India only. It involves four parties and it can be settled with the participation of all these four parties to it, viz.: India, Pakistan, the people of Jammu and Kashmir and the UN and the world community at large. At Tashkent, Simla and then at Lahore unrealistic attempts were made to convert this four-party issue into a bilateral one between India and Pakistan. It was bound to fail. Neither Tashkent Agreement led to any solution of the Kashmir issue nor did the Simla Agreement pave way to it, while the Lahore Declaration failed to take off. Mr. Vajpai himself admitted that the road to Lahore has led to Kargil. (The Asian Age, London, June 15, 1999, p.20).
  • The biggest casualty of the Kargil War, apart from 1,200 lives lost on both sides of the LoC, was trust and confidence in Indo-Pak relations, which is after a period of three years on the top of agenda. The two nations took two years to travel the high road from the Kargil War to the Agra Summit that ended on a jarring note, unable to agree to an acceptable joint statement.
  • General Musharraf is generally held accountable for the failure of the Kargil Operation. But his stand on Jammu & Kashmir to the media and world forums with his suave, clever articulation and repeated assertion was highly appreciated in and outside the country. For the time being it could not gain a tactical victory but now seems to bear fruit in the shape of the Indian governments willingness for a dialogue on Kashmir and the package of confidence building measures already offered by them.
  • After all, the main objective that was behind the Kargil Operation seems to be acknowledged that the best course of action would be that Indians come to the negotiating table without so many ifs and buts and sort out ways and means to solve the Kashmir problem and establish peace between the two countries on permanent basis. And it must be remembered that neither dramatic gestures nor a few meetings between the top leaders, neither visits of celebrities nor cultural exchange can considerably lead to any success. The so-called CBMs, which are now again in prevalence, have been mentioned in every agreement, including Tashkent Agreement and Lahore Declaration, but they are merely cosmetic in nature and lack substance. Confidence and friendship can emerge only when the forcible occupation of Kashmir by India comes to an end and India gives up its stance of wrong-headedness over the region and agrees to negotiate on the equality basis otherwise the reference to these CBMs in vogue would be nothing but pretentious double-talk.

References

  1. http://web.mid-day.com/entertainment/movies/2003/november/68465.htm
  2. http://www.brook.edu/fp/projects/south_asia.htm
  3. http://www.thefridaytimes.com/
  4. http://www.the-hindu.com/fline/fl1612/16120160.htm
  5. http://www.ccc.nps.navy.mil/research/kargil/index.asp
  6. http://www.kashmir-information.com/Heroes/
  7. http://www.jammukashmirinfo.com/Kargil/kargil.htm
  8. http://www.jammukashmirinfo.com/Kargil/kargil.htm
  9. http://www.subcontinent.com/sapra/military/kargil5.html
  10. http://www.rediff.com/news/2003/feb/12kargil.htm
  11. http://www.flonnet.com/fl1816/18160220.htm
  12. http://www.hindustantimes.com/news/181_263934,001300430004.htm

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AN INDIAN’S PERPECTIVE ON KARGIL -YAHOO.COM

 

Reference

 

HOW MANY INDIAN SOLDIERS WERE KILLED IN KARGIL CONFLICT 1999 ? SOME SAY 2,700. IS IT TRUE BJP HIDING THAT?

In 77 day Kargil Conflict of 1999, more Indian soldiers lost their lives than combined loss of 1947 – 1949, 14 month old Kashmir War, 23 day 1965 Indo – Pak war & 14 day 1971 War for Bangladesh formation. Many divisions were eliminated , it is learnt. Though real figure is never disclosed but people have a rough idea from media reports. During Kargil conflict, Indian TVs were showing only one Bofors gun firing all the time & Pakistan TVs were showing captured Indian soldiers alive. Many Indian people were saying that it is was pre-planned drama for forthcoming General Elections in India with full understanding with Pakistan’s establishment to make BJP win which actually happened too. Later on , figures were disclosed by either side within 300 no of lives lost at either sides. Few years later, Nawaz Sharif said that Pakistani side lost 2,700 men. Later, it was disclosed in the news that the loss of life in India was so many that the stock of caskets was exhausted & fresh caskets were imported very quickly in which allegations of large amount of kickbacks were disclosed on defence & other top Indian ministries. Now some recently retired armymen who were posted in Kashmir state during the war told so many individual & general stories. I too heard many stories. All are ananymous on the point that most of Indian soldiers were of not very cold places having no experience & withstandability on snow heights & suffered so much that ratio of loss of life was 100 : 1 against the enemy. If that is correct, it means that India lost 2,70,000 soldiers at least in that conflict & then casket scandal is understandable. In Kashmir, recently most of the soldiers who want to leave the valley at any cost said that entire Gulmarg & many such places were evacuated of the troops & all were sent to kargil . Only few came back. Is BJP hiding that fact & not talking anything on Kargil even during election campaign. Is the information of that high figure correct ? All Kashmiris happily say so. What is the truth ?
 
FROM
 
ZEENEWS
 
 
 
 
 
INDIA’S SHAME IS BEING COVERED BY DEFENSIVE STATEMENTS (see below) BY THEN INDIAN ARMY CHIEF GEN. V.P.MALIK, WHO IS SHEEPISHLY TRYING TO GARNISH THE BRUTAL TRUTHS.WHICH INDIAN PEOPLE WILL NEVER KNOW NOR SWALLOW.
 

‘INDIA FORGETTING 1999 KARGIL VICTORY AGAINST PAK’

 

{COMMENT}

If Kargil victory is so great, why is India ,the Victor trying to forget it.

Victors Do Not Forget Victory,Only losers Do

 
 
 
 

New Delhi: Thirteen years ago, the Indian Army found itself drawn into a messy low-intensity conflict with Pakistan in the icy heights of Kargil in Jammu and Kashmir that cost it 527 soldiers. Today, Gen VP Malik, the then Army chief, laments that the major victory scored has all been forgotten. Kargil was India’s first television war and could have promoted a “strategic culture” in the country, but the gains were lost because of political compulsions, Malik says. 

“We must celebrate the Kargil victory. Unfortunately, the Kargil war has become a political football,” 74-year-old Malik, who lives in the Chandigarh suburb of Panchkula, told a news agency in an interview. 

“Politics got into the Kargil victory and the celebrations became a political football. That’s what we saw with political rivals celebrating and criticising the war for reasons that suited them,” Malik said. 

“The armed forces had tremendous support from the people and the media,” he said, adding: “But politics got into all this and that’s why there were good celebrations initially and there are hardly any celebrations. Slowly people are beginning to forget, because it is not providing much political mileage.” 

From 2000 to 2003, July 26, the day the war ended, was commemorated in a variety of ways. This, however, stopped when the United Progressive Alliance government came to power. 

Calling for grander celebrations, Malik said, “We have to tell the people about these battles and if we want to build a strategic culture, we need to celebrate these victories and inform people how these battles were won.” 

The Kargil war in May-July 1999 saw India throwing back Pakistani regulars who had occupied key heights in the sector that had been vacated by the Indian troops during the harsh winter. 

At the same time, Malik readily agreed that the victory in the 1971 war with Pakistan that saw the creation of the independent nation of Bangladesh was “much bigger” and “greater” than Kargil. 

“The 1971 war was certainly a much bigger, greater victory for India, as we had fought on both (eastern and western) fronts. But that was 1971. In 1999, we were reacting to a situation, as in 1965, and were playing on the back foot. 

“In 1971, we had taken the initiative in view of the refugees pouring in from the East and there was time for us to prepare for the war,” Malik said. 

But the situation in 1999 was different, he said, noting that the whole world was watching India with suspicion following its 1998 nuclear tests. 

“We did exceeding well with the Army, Navy and the Air Force jointly working out a strategy in a limited war scenario,” he added. 

IANS 

 

First Published: Sunday, July 29, 2012, 16:04
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A NEW YORK LOVE LETTER TO NAWAZ SHARIF FROM A LAHORITE LADY IN LANGUAGE HE UNDERSTANDS

A Message To Nawaz Sharif Exclusive From New York by zemtv

 

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Plundering of Pakistan:Reko Diq & Saindak Copper,Gold & Rare Elements Stolen By West in Collusion with Nawaz Sharif

Plundering of Pakistan:Reko Diq & Saindak Copper,Gold & Rare Elements Stolen By West in Collusion with Nawaz Sharif 

Fears grow about Reko Diq Gold mines…Baloch senator says deal offered to China; government denies

 
6944677-big-thief-stealing-a-lot-of-money

Shaheen Sehbai
Wednesday, August 28, 2013
From Print Edition

WASHINGTON: While major world mining and investment companies are preparing to invest big time, big money in Balochistan, specially in the mining sector, suspicions and doubts that the biggest gold mine of Reko Diq may be quietly handed over to China as part of the growing economic ties are also coming to the fore.

 

Official and business circles have been wondering for some time what will happen to the multi-hundred billion dollar Reko Diq gold and copper mines after the world’s largest mining company, Barrick Gold of Canada, was thrown out of Pakistan by the Supreme Court of Pakistan during the PPP regime.

 

But after the recent visit of high level government delegation to China and a flurry of quick MoUs and super-paced exchange of visits, an important leader from Balochistan, former Senator Sana Baloch has alleged publicly that the government has promised these mines to China in a year or so.

 

While the Government leaders strongly denied any deal or any promise made during the Beijing visit, an official Pakistan Government statement assuring that the Reko Diq mines will be given to the highest bidder in an international tender is still awaited.

 

Meanwhile as the wait continues, world mining companies are expecting and waiting for Pakistan to float international the tenders inviting bids for Reko Diq and some are ready to offer more than $100 billion in 30 to 35 years, insiders of the mining industry say.

 

The ousted Barrick Gold had promised less than a billion a year in 56 years but they never shared what they had found during the many years of exploration they did in Reko Diq. What is generally believed is that Reko Diq is bigger than Afghan Aynak mines which were estimated by President Karzai at over $3 trillion.

 

Sana Baloch’s charge has come amid a frenzy of shuttle economic activity between Islamabad and Beijing. A top level economic delegation led by Zhang Xiaoqiang, vice chairman National Development and Reforms Commission (NRDC) is in Islamabad today and was asked by Federal Minister for Planning and Development Ahsan Iqbal to raise ceiling of Chinese investments in Pakistan to $10 billion from present $3 billion.

 

The government has been speaking about Chinese investments of between $18 to $20 billion in Gwadar-Kashgar Highway, the bullet train and Lahore-Karachi Motorway in the coming years but what is not yet been explained is how the Chinese will be repaid for these investments.

 

One form of repayment is now being suspected in the form of handing over the $300 billion plus Reko Diq mines to China on the pattern of the Saindak Copper mines, at almost a throw-away price.

 

Senator Sana Baloch has made this allegation: “Chinese authorities were assured of getting the world’s richest copper-gold deposit, Reko-Diq, by next year – again without following international transparent norms.” “Shady deals in the name of brotherly relations have deprived the people of Balochistan of any benefits they can get from these resources. Not a single contract has ever been made public,” the angry senator from Balochistan says. “I repeatedly requested details of agreements and contracts signed during the Musharraf regime, but to no avail.”

 

The Reko Diq issue is awaiting a decision in the international arbitration forums where the Canadian Barrick Gold has filed cases against Pakistan for compensation. These cases may be decided in a few months and involve only a few million dollars but the world mining market is preparing seriously for bidding for the mines in a big way as these companies realize that Reko Diq offers billions of dollars of profits and financial opportunity for the host country.

 

In one such case, three weeks back the Delloite Finance Corporation of Canada, the single largest professional services organization in the world in 2010, issued a Letter of Interest, through its mining division, to an American mining company preparing for the big tender in a joint venture with a major Australian capital markets investment organization which has at least 10 world class mining companies ready to bid for Reko Diq.

 

Experts fear that if the Government did not opt for a transparent international tender for Reko Diq, hundreds of billions of dollars may be lost in the coming years just like the Saindak Copper mines where Pakistan did not benefit significantly as General Musharraf first gave the mines to China and then extended the deal for another five years.

 

No details of what Pakistan gained are available as against the potential and the promises that were made but Senator Sana Baloch says Gwadar, Saindak, the Duddar Lead-Zinc project and several other such deals are a complete mystery for the common Baloch.

 

He says the multi-billion copper-gold Saindak project is being extracted, without any monitoring in the past 10 years by a Chinese company. “According to official reports, copper-gold worth $633.573m was extracted during 2004-08. The Balochistan government received a paltry two percent share, while half the profits go to Beijing and 48 percent to Islamabad,” he says in an article sent to The News. (see page-6)

 

For Reko Diq the Supreme Court, although in a veiled reference, guided the Government of Balochistan to hold an international tender like the one held in Afghanistan’s Anyak Copper deposit.

 

In the Afghan tender, supervised by the World Bank, eight international companies from many countries had contested. It was globally reported that a Chinese company allegedly tried to bribe a Minister in Afghanistan paying him $30 million but was caught.

 

Experts say if for an investment of up to $20 billion over the next 20 years, the Chinese are handed over the multi-hundred billion Reko Diq mines, in a non-transparent manner, it would be the greatest open and shut robbery and treachery with the country.

 

By getting what is its right, Pakistan can build many motorways and bullet trains on its own, provided the rulers keep the national interest in mind, says one mining expert.

The Plunder of Saindak’s Cooper and Gold

yousaf ajabBy Yousaf Ajab Baloch 

Saindak cooper-gold mine is also included in the Baloch’s  mineral resources that mark Balochistan as a rich land. Despite existence of gold and copper with great amount and value, Baloch nation is unable to benefit from it as because Chinese exploitation of Baloch resources is continued with great assistance of state authorities and establishment. The Saindak production or so-called Baloch share has never been utilized for development of Baloch and Balochistan. 

The  Saindak Copper and Gold mine is  located in Chagi district of Balochistan. Discovery of copper deposits  at Saindak  was made  in 1970s in collaboration with Chinese engineering firm and the feasibility study of Saindak  project was  started in 1975. The Saindak mine was estimated to have ore reserves of 412 million tones containing on average 0.5 gram of gold per ton and 1.5 grams of silver per ton. According to official estimates, the project has the capacity to produce 15,800 ton of blister copper annually, containing 1.5 ton of gold and 2.8 ton of silver.

In 1995, production at Saindak copper and gold mine started with the funding of Government of Pakistan. The Saindak Copper-Gold Project was set up by Saindak Metals Ltd, a company owned by the Pakistan, by the end of 1995 at a cost of PKR 13.5 billion.  In initial trial months, monthly production rate was 1700 tons of copper, 6000 ounces of gold and 12000 ounces of silver. At first the copper was to be refined in China, the technical partner in the project; it was suggested that a refinery be built at Saindak; however, after a decade it has not been done.

The Benazir government closed down the project late in 1995, saying lack of funds to continue project and low price of copper  in international market. The  Nawaz government did not take interest in starting this project. In  addition,  it is  said that state bureaucracy opposed Saindak project over building  the necessary infrastructure , including the RCD Highway section from Dalbandin  to Saindak, taking  the rail to Saindak from Taftan and other facilities. It also remained a big shock for the people of Balochistan when first time a number of Baloch people were employed. It should be noted that above mentioned development was made  merely for the Chinese interest and benefit.

The government of Pakistan In 2002, invited foreign investors to provide funding for the project and  awarded the mining project to the Metallurgical Corporation of China (MCC) Ltd under a 10-year lease due to expire in October 2012.  MCC agreed to pay an annual rent of $500,000 for the mine to the Government of Pakistan. The distribution of profits was according to a formula,  beyond ones understanding. The Chinese company took 75% the Federal government 24% and only 1% of revenue was passed onto the Balochistan Government.

Shortly, the Saindak Copper-Gold Project (SCGP) SCGP is a copper mining project that has been of no use or benefit for the Baloch people. The initial operational agreement between MCC and Government of Pakistan was for 10 years upto 15-Oct-2012. The agreement further extended for a period of 05 years i.e. up to 15-Oct-2017. MCC is running this project through its subsidiary MRDL (MCC Resources Development Company Pvt Limited) registered with Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan.

Unfortunately,  there is  no detailed  examination  of minerals  from  the international laboratory with the  view to know the exact ratio of copper  and gold in the minerals being extracted  from  the Saindak  mines  and there is  no idea of costly ores of  the copper  and gold  being extracted by the Chinese Company. The China has been given free hand to exploit Baloch resources. The minerals valuing billions of dollars are being swindled since the Chinese company invested only 23 million dollars and in return it holds the whole resources of Saindak project and there has not been independent monitoring in the project.

The agreement and handing over the Saindak project has always been against the will of Baloch people, even the so-called governments  have not been consulte , as  last year in 2012 the federal cabinet approved a five year extension in the lease of the Saindak project till 2017.

The company claims to have paid 13.4 million dollars as presumption tax and 6 million dollars surcharges between periods of 2002 to 2012. It also claims provision of jobs to 1600 local people in mining and running the plant. The company says that it is upgrading schools and health services and provides scholarships to students of the area; however, the claims go against the reality. According to the local people the project area is a no go area for Baloch people and employed people in the project   belong to the other provinces or are non-Baloch including presence of Baloch in the project is equal to none. The people in surrounding areas of the village and district say that there is no development in any sector of the life initiated by Chinese company.  The district officials of Chagi confirm  that no money from this project has been utilized for district development.

Ransack of Saindak copper and gold proves that the federation is only interested to exploit Baloch resources with the help of China. This project could bring a great economic change   in the condition of entire Balochistan; even it did not develop the nearby villages and district in last years.

The enormous pillage of copper and gold by China is not justified from the land of Balochistan, as does not return in the shape of development or amount. However, the resistance movement in Balochistan and political struggle justifies that Baloch movement for their rights and ownership of land is right and on the basis of realism. Because the Saindak project is only a single example and we can find numbers of instances in which Baloch people are undervalued and Baloch resources are looted with both ends particularly by China. 

Bibliography:

Lack of Democracy and  Soci-Economic Development of Balochistan: Sheikh  Asad Rahman

Saindak Project on The move: Siddque Baloch

Saindak gold mines again given to Chinese company: Khalid Mustafa

De Unkown Baloch By Mir Mohammad Ali Talpur

The revival of Sandak project : Shamim Ahmed  Rizvi

China digs Pakistan into a hole :By Syed Fazl-e-Haider

China now  wants to gulp Gawadr after digest of  Saindak: Ahmed Khan Baloch

Balochistan’s missing money: Sanaullah Baloch

Published in The Baloch Hal on September 4, 2013

 

 

TCC gives up Reko Diq rights

Published: June 14, 2013

The total area of the Reqo Diq gold mines is said to be spread over 13,000 square kilometres and was valued over $3 trillion. TCC had been given mining rights for only 99 square kilometres. PHOTO: FILE

ISLAMABAD / QUETTA: After losing its case in the Supreme Court of Pakistan, the Tethyan Copper Company (TCC) has turned to pressure tactics and filed compensatory claims in the international arbitration court to regain what it lost in the wake of the court ruling on the Reko Diq gold and copper reserves.

In a press note issued on Thursday, TCC – a consortium of Canada-based Barrick Gold and Chile-based Antofagasta Minerals – said it had decided not to pursue the grant of a mining lease for the Reko Diq reserves, and would seek monetary compensation instead for ‘damages’ inflicted by the federal and Balochistan governments’ alleged breaches of contract and treaty rights.

“Recent developments have regrettably compelled TCC to withdraw the request for specific performance,” said TCC chief executive officer Tim Livesey in his statement.

“TCC invested enormous time, effort and capital in the Chaghai district.”

“Through that investment, we took a small copper exploration target in a previous unexplored segment of the Tethyan belt and developed it into a world class mining project at Reko Diq.” The TCC CEO maintained that while the company had long hoped to mine Reko Diq, the conduct of Pakistan and Balochistan has made that goal impracticable.

“The federal and provincial governments have not responded to our many attempts to engage, have prevented TCC from participating in the development of the new mining sector in the province, and have denied both TCC and the people of Balochistan and Pakistan the enormous benefits that our project would have brought to the country,” he maintained.

“We will pursue our claims for monetary damages, including lost profits for the mining operations, in the international arbitration,” Livesey’s statement concluded.

While determining the amount of compensation TCC may receive in case it is awarded a decision in its favour is a wild guess at this stage, experts say it could range as high as a few billion dollars. TCC’s investment in the exploration and mining of Reko Diq will be the determining factor in case the decision is announced against Pakistan.

According to officials of the Provincial Mines and Mineral Development, TCC had invested around $200 million and expected the damages claims would be just slightly higher.

Some see TCC’s shift from claiming the mining rights of Reko Diq to seeking compensation for damages as a desperate attempt to force the newly-elected government back to the negotiation table.

“TCC is not giving up its so-called mining rights… they were in fact taken away from them by the Supreme Court,” said Raza Kazim, the lawyer who fought the Reko Diq case on behalf of private parties in Balochistan.

He maintained TCC’s move was not a new one. The Canadian High Commission had earlier threatened to take the step in a letter written to the government of Pakistan. Through the letter, the high commission sought an out-of-court settlement, threatening that the ‘biggest award in the history of arbitration’ would be issued against Pakistan if it failed to do so, Kazim said. He added that the letter was placed on the SC record.

In its ruling, a three-judge bench of the apex court, headed by Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, stated that the agreement reached on July 23, 1993 was in conflict with the laws of the country.

The total area of the Reqo Diq gold mines is said to be spread over 13,000 square kilometres and was valued over $3 trillion. TCC had been given mining rights for only 99 square kilometres.

MRDL paid $39.8m in royalties for Saindak since 2003

According to a source, Chinese state-owned mining company MRDL has deposited $39.8 million with the Balochistan government in royalties for the Saindak Copper and Gold Project over the past decade.

A source said MRDL had financed the project by providing $10 million for the rehabilitation of the local population and $15 million as working capital. The company has paid $220 million to the federal government as its share in profit, $6 million as the lease rent of the project, $13.4 million as presumptive tax and $6 million as development surcharge during the period from 2002 to 2012.

 

Published in The Express Tribune, June 14th, 2013.

 

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The old tottering, the new struggling to be born by Ayaz Amir


Islamabad diary: Friday, October 10, 2014 

The old tottering, the new struggling to be born

Ayaz Amir

 

 

 

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Sounds a bit dramatic, the title, doesn’t it? But I get the feeling that hesitantly, without most of us fully realising it, a new history is being written. A country knowing nothing but frustration for long gives the impression of finally turning in its sleep.

For many this is a heady feeling. You can see this in the dharnas. For the status quo classes hiding behind the slogan of democracy this is an alarming development. They don’t seem to have an answer to the questions being raised about the dead politics they represent.

The two leading champions of the traditional politics seem like two faces of the same currency. For all practical purposes, there is little to distinguish the PML-N and the PPP except geography. The former is mainly interested in preserving its fiefdom in Punjab, the latter in Sindh, both under attack from Imran Khan. In some ways this is divine retribution: the Sharifs and ex-president Asif Ali Zardari supping at the same table. The jaundiced observer would say they deserve each other.

Bilawal says Imran Khan should learn politics from the Bhuttos. This is not without its share of humour. At what his successors have made of the PPP, a cousin or B Team of the PML-N, Bhutto would be turning in his grave. Even the blessed of short memory cannot easily forget that the most finished, most advanced product, to come out of Gen Ziaul Haq’s political engineering machine, with which he sought to cleanse Pakistan’s political stables and put the country on the path of righteousness, were the Sharifs.

The old politics is dying because it is past its sell-by date. It is not addressing the concerns of the people. And because Imran Khan and Tahirul Qadri are talking of the injustices and iniquities of the prevailing socio-economic and political order people are listening to them. This is evident in the huge rallies Imran is addressing. The status quo parties can’t make out what’s happening. All they have at their service are clichés about democracy and the constitution. Because they are hollow they don’t make much of an impression.

Democracy was not threatened by the dharnas. It was the old way politics under attack. This entire agitation has stirred both the middle classes which hitherto kept themselves aloof from politics, and the young and rootless who see no future for themselves in the prevailing system. In a matter of weeks the old shibboleths stand discredited, as people asks questions they never had a chance to ask before.

The anti-Ayub agitation of Oct ’68-Mar ‘69 put paid to the controlled ‘democracy’ associated with Ayub Khan’s rule. The anti-Bhutto agitation of 1977 swept aside Bhutto’s populist rule and paved the way for Gen Zia’s military rule and all that he did in the name of Islam. At another of those turning points which take history down a new path, Imran Khan and Qadri, for the most part unwittingly, are becoming the instruments of a new consciousness.

I say unwittingly for when they set out on their separate marches from Lahore they could have had no idea how it would all turn out in six weeks or two months. Their good luck, and the nation’s, was that despite the visible meltdown of federal authority, when power was there for the taking, the army held its hand. A military intervention would have been a godsend for the Sharifs, bestowing on them again, as in 1999, the halo of martyrdom…their shortcomings forgotten.

But when it all looked hopeless for Khan and Qadri, against the odds, against all the dictates of seeming wisdom, they stuck to their guns and turned what looked like certain defeat to the triumph – in the form of the turning of the tide – they are now experiencing. At journey’s beginning Khan was not the all-conquering hero he now appears to be, his march not very impressive when he set out from Lahore. Qadri had the advantage in numbers and organisation.

Behold then the power of determination. Through biting sun and drenching rain the two stuck it out, when lesser men would have given up. How foolish they looked in the beginning, atop their containers, haranguing their followers. What nicknames did they not earn, what ridicule was not heaped on them not least by the punditocracy.

It was not the fault of the pundits. They were in their ivory towers. Imran and Qadri were closer to the pulse and mood of the people. It’s always like this. In the anti-Ayub agitation most of the pundits were on one side, Bhutto on the other. In this narrow sense at least we are seeing history repeating itself.

What happens next, whether the paralysis of government we see now will last indefinitely or premature elections put the Sharifs out of their misery, are matters of detail. The important thing is (1) that the dispensation of the Sharifs stands denuded of authority, the moral right to govern; and (2) it is possible to feel a new mood in the country, one compounded not of cynicism and frustration but hope and enthusiasm. Despite the pundits, the broad reach of television – this a military dictator’s gift, let us never forget – is proving to be another agent of change. Elections may still be stolen. But it won’t be this easy.

Every pantomime has its day. If the finished products of the Zia era were good at anything it was the art of stolen elections. They had some very good tutors and army and ISI then marched to a different tune. The enemy then was the PPP and the good guys were the windbags and toadies of the right put together under the umbrella of the Islami Jamhoori Ittehad by the ISI…and such consummate masters of the political game as my friend Lt Gen Hamid Gul. The popular response to the dharnas, and the public attendance at Khan’s rallies, suggest that the curtains may finally be coming down on this long-standing drama.

The tide when it turns carries all before it. Hitherto unassailable symbols of authority lose their shine; seemingly impregnable walls totter. This is happening with the Sharifs, nothing working right for them, and their authority down to zero.

Imran and Qadri have even changed the discourse of politics. The cry of democracy in danger no longer cuts much ice. Sharif keeps harping on the theme of protecting the constitution. Zardari says he is defending the ‘system’. People are more focused on the corruption and misrule of the political elite, which both the PML-N and the PPP exemplify.

People are just tired of the old faces, as they were tired of Ayub and Zia and Musharraf. In Britain they were tired of Mrs Thatcher in the end and of Tony Blair too when he had been around for too long. There’s just so much the human stomach can stand. The Sharifs have been around for over 30 years.

Does anyone think that people are so dumb that they can’t make out the difference between a more confident India under Narendra Modi and Pakistan under a bumbling dispensation? Does anyone think they have missed noting the difference between Modi’s visit to the United States and our performance there?

Why are people responding to Imran? Not just because of inflated electricity bills but because they want to see strong hands on deck, a leadership of which they can be proud, not a leadership fidgeting with nervousness in front of the likes of President Obama.

Two slogans for the sentiment they captured stand out in our history: the call for Pakistan in 1946-47 and ‘roti, kapra and makan’ in 1970. Now comes a third to rank with them: “Go Nawaz Go”. It has caught the spirit of the times.

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Metrobus Projects

Metrobus Projects

By

Abbas Hasan, Civil Engineer 

<[email protected]>

metro-bus-rwp

Is it a White Elephant in the Making Or a Billion Dollar Boondoggle To Fill Sharif Family Coffers?

Why are we paying more than Rs 30 billion over international prices for an undersized transport system?.
It’s all about understanding transport network needs and optimizing utilization of height capacity corridors. Otherwise it’s misuse of precious resources without detailed planning.

Just how ‘Fit for Purpose’ are the Metrobus Projects?

Pakistani tax payers should rightly ask why they are paying more than Rs 30 billion over international prices for an undersized transport system?.
As an engineer associated with design and delivery of large infrastructure projects in the Middle East, including a Bus Rapid Transport (BRT) – or what in Pakistan is called Metrobus, I am used to the term “Fitness for Purpose” to describe whether the actual use of an engineered project fulfills the purpose for which it was built.
This term also addresses whether or not the project cost is in line with acceptable benchmarks and highlights under-designed and over-designed projects.
 
During a recent trip to Pindi, I was asked if the Lahore and Rawalpindi Metrobus projects were Fit for Purpose?
To assess the project efficacy, we need to compare the Metrobus’s ridership with overall vehicular trips in Lahore.
With over 350,000 cars and 850,000 motorcycles on the roads of Lahore, congestion, pollution and safety are key issues, the stated purpose of the Metrobus project is to increase the share of public transport in Lahore, and accordingly provide safe, reliable transport.
 
For a city of approximately 7 million population as per the urban transport forum, based on surveys in Lahore, there were approximately 5.3 million trips/day vehicular trips – excluding walking and cycling (at 0.75 trips/person – this incidentally is half as compared to other cities in Asia).
A successfully designed public transport program should aim for at least 20 per cent ridership, whilst the actual daily ridership for the Lahore Metrobus is 180,000 trips/day or 3.3 per cent of the overall, the impact is therefore insufficient in reducing congestion in the city, expect perhaps on that corridor.
The most successful BRT project in the world is the TransMilenio in Bogota Columbia, which has a ridership of 2.2million/day and peak time capacity of over 37,700 trips/direction/hour. In Asia, theGuangzhou BRT has a ridership of 1 million trips/day with a peak capacity of 27,000 trips/direction/hour.
In both these projects, the buses run in separate corridors, mainly at grade without elevated sections. Based on my knowledge of designing similar infrastructure, in its current design format, the Lahore or Pindi metro may not achieve such capacities due to:
• No overtaking provisions at stations eliminating the possibility to use multiple services on the same route, limiting the number of buses per direction.
• Bus stops are not big enough to accommodate several buses within the same stop. Limiting the number of buses that can simultaneously run on the same line.
• Insufficient investment in the bus fleet.
• Insufficient city-wide coverage to attract passengers, it is not a network but only one line, it would have been better to have built a lower cost, but a wider network with more lines and reach across the city.
• No provision of a feeder bus system to ferry passengers not living near the route.
• No linkages with the city’s other mode of transport – bus, rail, air.
• No provisions for transfer stations linking with future lines, as some stations are elevated, building these connections now would be challenging.
• The Metrobus should be an integral part of the overall city transport network and should inform the future development of the city, future public transport corridors should be part of the master plan for all new developments, including DHA, etc.
 
According to the American Public Transport Association BRT infrastructure should cost US $2-18 million/km, the Lahore Metrobus’ infrastructure capital cost is more expensive as compared to international benchmarks.
As per published figures, the infrastructure costs in US$ per kilometer (all costs escalated to 2014) for BRT for various cities are:
  • Ahmedabad, India $3 million/km
  • Dalian, China $4.5m/km
  • Guangzhou, China $6.5m/km
  • Istanbul, Turkey $10m/km
  • Bogota, Columbia (new phase) $13.3m/km
  • Lima, Peru $10m/km
  • Los Angeles, USA $ 14.4m/km
 
Given lower labour costs in Pakistan and averaging the above figures, a fair estimate for infrastructure costs should be approximately $5-7m/km.

Therefore, at $11m/km, the Lahore Metrobus cost wise is substantially higher than the benchmark.


Although there is no evidence of corruption or any wrong doing, it is the expensive design and accelerated delivery that may have led to the price escalation.
 
 
Once major projects are completed, a “lessons learnt” exercise is nomally held so that future projects learn from and improve upon the previous one. The lessons learnt exercise should have included why earlier bus services such as the Lahore Volvo bus and the Pindi Varan bus are no longer running; was it due to a non-sustainable business model, high fuel costs, lack of spare parts and replacement of the fleet, poor governance or road congestion?
Unfortunately, this was not done and the newly started Rs 50 billion Pindi Metrobus project, seems to repeat the same mistakes as the earlier Lahore one.
 
 
It is not clear how the Pindi Metrobus strategically fits in the overall transport master plan, whether this project is for commuters to Islamabad; or for residents of Rawalpindi and Islamabad? Globally 80 per cent of commuters use trains (both over ground and underground) as the preferred means of travel (trains regularly reach speeds of 100 kph and carry up to 800 passengers per train, unlike buses that travel at 25 kph and carry 100 passengers).
At current growth rates by 2035 Pindi-Islamabad will have a combined population of approximately five million, given that most of whom will not be able to afford living in Islamabad, and that the extended city would stretch from Hasanabdal, Fatehjang to Mandra, the transportation master plan should take cognizance of that in its design intent.
If we look at costs, as stated previously the cost of the Pindi Metrobus should not be approximately $6m/Km as compared to the actual estimated cost is Rs 50 billionn for 24.5 km or $20 million/km.
Based on surveys approximately. 200,000 vehicles/day travel from Pindi to Islamabad or 550,000 (persons) trips take place daily between the two cities, if we assume a 50 per cent capture for public transport then, today, the designed capacity of the Metrobus should be at least 300,000 trips/day as opposed to the current stated capacity of 150,000.
If we project this volume 10 years hence, it will underline that the Metrobus is significantly undersized and should be able to reach a capacity of approx. 500,000 trips/day.
 
 
The Metrobus is an excellent idea and the Punjab government should be appreciated for its effort in initiating and implementing this project in a record time, but unfortunately it is also a symptom of afailing system whereby there is no independent regulatory authority to challenge the provincial government’s project intent, and safeguard public interest.
More time should have been given to studies (including environmental), planning and design rather than hurried implementation. The tax payers of this country should rightfully ask,
Why are they paying more than Rs 30 billion over international prices for an undersized transport system?
It may be still not be too late for the government to reassess the project and carry out a value engineering exercise to ruthlessly cut costs and maximise value for money, at the same time modify the design to maximise the systems passenger carrying capacity. It should also evaluate how this fits in the overall city master plan, assess actual current and future demands versus existing capacity in the proposed system.
In my opinion, the public hearing process should be strengthened, where in the hearings the business model is explained, to appreciate what additional investment would be needed to fund and operate the vehicle fleet, what is the correct ticket price and how an independent accountable management structure is in place to sustain this investment.
The regulatory system needs to be strengthened so that government entities are not allowed to brow beat regulators into hurriedly approving projects, Pakistan is a poor country and deserves affordable, properly designed, infrastructure that is “Fit for Purpose”.
 
 
The author is a civil engineer and an avid cricket fan who earns his living in the gulf.
He can be reached on email at [email protected]. Follow him @A3bbasHasan

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