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Archive for category Economic Hitmen

WHO HELPED IN PAYMENT OF $32 MILLION TO BROADSHEET? by Arshad Sharif,The Reporter’s Diary

WHO HELPED IN PAYMENT OF $32 MILLION TO BROADSHEET?

AN INSIDER’S CONMAN JOB!

By

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ARSHAD SHARIF

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 January 15, 2021

The Reporter’s Diary

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Islamabad, January 15:  Successive governments and National Accountability Bureau (NAB) made questionable payments of atleast US $32 Million to different companies in Broadsheet scam from 2008 till now without challenging the re-instatement of companies which were dissolved in 2007. 

Government of Pakistan (GoP) also paid millions of dollars as fees to the lawyers in addition to the US$32 Million questionable payments to Broadsheet which had links to a few important people in Pakistani power corridors. How many million dollars have been paid to lawyers internationally and locally by GoP and NAB remains a well-guarded secret in the scam.

“I had been requesting the relevant people to challenge the re-instatement order of Broadsheet in Isle of Man but no one was interested,” said a well-placed source, adding, “unless the money is distributed, how will people get their share.”

Disbursement of atleast US $32 Million include payment of US $1.5 Million to Broadsheet, $2.2 to International Asset Recovery (IAR) and US$ 28 Million to reinstated Broadsheet.

“In addition to US$1,500,000 paid to or to order of Mr. James under the Settlement Agreement, NAB paid US$2,250,000 in settlement of the claims by IAR, also in about 2008,” reads an order of settlement in the case.

The first tranche of questionable payments were made when Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) was in power, Navid Ahsan was Chairman NAB and Sardar Latif Khosa was Attorney General of Pakistan.

Sardar Latif Khosa later represented Broadsheet LLC in Supreme Court of Pakistan in 2018 to seek access to Volume 10 of Joint Investigation Team (JIT) report to be used to assess the quantum of damages sought in the international arbitration.

Who actually owns Broadsheet LLC, an offshore company, is a question which has baffled Pakistani officialdom. The multi-million dollar question finds mention in a communication sent by Broadsheet’s lawyers, Crowell & Moring LLP, to Pakistani authorities in March 2019 in the following words”

Zafar Ali, QC

“Mr. Ali informed Mr. Moussavi that people in Pakistan wanted to “know who he is” after dealing with him for years, and whether Broadsheet was being funded by Zardari and the Bhutto Family. Mr. Moussavi told Mr. Ali that was nonsense, that he had no connection whatsoever with Zardari, and never would, and that in his view Mr.Ali was being pushed aside by others in Pakistan eager to pursue the Sharif funds in Singapore for themselves.”

Imran Khan, Prime Minister of Pakistan

Prime Minister Imran Khan has recently ordered an investigation to find how the Broadsheet case was mishandled by previous governments resulting in penalty of millions of dollars against Pakistan.

It is surprising that settlement was made with Broadsheet without due diligence by GoP and NAB in 2008 despite the fact that the company was dissolved in April 2007. The fact finds mention in the settlement order in following words:

“In April 2007, when Broadsheet (IoM) was formally dissolved, negotiations were in progress between NAB, represented by their lawyer, Mr. Soofi, and Mr. James’s former associates representing another company, IAR, which had made an agreement similar to the ARA (but relating to other parts of the World) in 2000 at about the same time as he entered into the ARA on behalf of Broadsheet. 

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In addition, Mr. James began to negotiate a Settlement Agreement with NAB represented by Mr. Soofi representing that he, Mr. James, was authorised to represent Broadsheet, notwithstanding (and without disclosing) that the company was in liquidation and was recently formally dissolved.

His purpose in doing this can readily be inferred from the facts that at about this time he formed a new Colorado company, also called Broadsheet, which he represented was a successor to Broadsheet IoM. When the Settlement Agreement was signed on 20 May 2008 it provided that NAB would make payments totaling US$1,500,000, in settlement of claims made under the ARA, not to Broadsheet IoM or its Liquidator but to Broadsheet Colorado which Mr. James controlled and in effect to him personally. When these facts became known to Mr. Moussavi, he took steps to have the dissolution of Broadsheet set aside. A new Liquidator was appointed who has authorised these arbitration proceedings against NAB (Notice of Arbitration was given on 23 October 2009). 

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Naveed Ahsan, Former Chairman NABThe Settlement Agreement was authorised for NAB by an executive decision in which Mr. Soofi was not involved. There is no evidence as to who the decision makers were. The Governor of NAB at that time was Mr. Ahsan.”

The settlement order gives details about dissolution of Broadsheet, raising fundamental question why re-instatement was not challenged in Isle of Man either by GoP or NAB.

“When the ARA terminated in Oct./Dec.2003, Broadsheet was a trading company registered in the Isle of Man. Mr. James was its executive chairman and controlling shareholder. Mr. Tisdale was involved in its affairs by virtue of being Mr. James’s legal adviser, and Mr. Tariq Fawad Malik effectively was its local representative in Pakistan. On 19 May 2003, the company’s former legal adviser in Jersey obtained a default judgment for outstanding fees in the sum of about £29,000 (“the Sinel judgement”). On 1 April 2004 the Sinel judgment was registered against Broadsheet in the Isle of Man. Winding-up proceedings against the Company based on non-payment of the judgment debt were commenced in the Isle of Man in February 2005 and a Winding-up Order was made on 2-7 March 2005. On 2 April 2007 the company was formally dissolved. Meanwhile, Mr. James remained active in business and/or financial affairs in the USA. On 4 January 2005 he purported to assign to a Colorado company, Steeplechase Financial Services LLC, “all his right, title and interest in … connection with [the ARA]” signing the Assignment as chairman of Broadsheet and ‘Manager’ of Broadsheet. He did not notify NAB of the Assignment nor did he communicate with the Liquidator who was appointed in the Isle of Man shortly afterwards, in February/March 2005.”

Interestingly enough, when the questionable payments were made a year later to a company dissolved in 2007, the damage claims were again accepted in 2009. 

Second payment of atleast US $28 million was facilitated in December 2020 when Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaaf led by Prime Minister Imran Khan was in office.

A senior government official with knowledge of the case said a number of questions need to be answered as to who facilitated payments to Broadsheet once again in December 2020 when clear instructions were given by Attorney General office to keep “bare minimum” cash in accounts of Pakistani missions abroad.

Public Accounts Committee and Foreign Affairs Committee of National Assembly of Pakistan have ordered probe in the broadsheet scam.

Answers to a few of the following questions can expose a few characters who facilitated payment of atleast US $28 million to Broadsheet through Pakistan High Commission bank account in London:

 1. Why such a big amount was lying in Pakistan High Commission’s account when arbitration was ongoing and instructions were passed to keep bare minimum cash in bank accounts for official use?

2. When the amount of US $28 million was transferred to High Commission’s account and for what purpose? Who authorized transfer of funds to account of High Commission?

3. What had been the average Monthly balance in High Commission’s account during last 36 months?

4. How Broadsheet came to know about huge balance in High Commission’s account and specific account number to ensure implementation of damages claim?

5. Why diplomatic immunity was not invoked and if invoked at what stage and when?

6. Does it prima facie not seem an arranged and corroborative move to facilitate Broadsheet to recover the money?

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Pakistan: A Need for Clarity in light of the Confessions Of An Economic Hitman (Deception of IMF / World Bank)

Pakistan: A Need for Clarity in light of the Confessions Of An Economic Hitman (Deception of IMF / World Bank)

Saeed A. Malik.

There is much that Pakistan needs to pull itself out of the hole it finds itself in. Among these is the utmost need for clarity on the following questions:

  1. What has happened to Pakistan?

  2. Why did this happen?

  3. What should be expected to follow?

  4. What is the way out?

Unless clear and precise answers to the above are forthcoming, the way forward cannot be determined. And losing our way in the dark of the night will only increase our pain and add to our troubles. So trying to find answers to these questions the best we can, should at least be attempted.

  1. What has happened to Pakistan?

If a person owes more money than he has the resources to pay back his debt, technically he can be said to be bankrupt. So is the case with states.

This is the closest Pakistan has come to national bankruptcy. Thus far the efforts of the government have succeeded to buy time to set the national house in order. There are goals set for the future. And to the achievement of these goals, our hopes are tied.

But there is no certainty as yet that these goals will be achieved.

Pakistan has borrowed even more to gain time in order to prevent a total shipwreck and to plan its way out of the morass. It had no other option.

From now until we turn the corner therefore, our national security must remain in the most parlous state that it has ever been. This must be very clear to all.

  1. Why did this happen?

We are supposed to be a parliamentary democracy. We elect people who are sworn to defend the highest national interest. Each of these people who offer themselves for elections must spend at least Rs ten crores to have any chance of winning. When they win, it is their first goal to recover what they have spent in the process. Then they must make a hefty profit on this investment. Thus the very system is rooted in illegal money-making, out and out corruption, and subversion of the rule of law. And yet we insist on calling this system a democracy.

The elected members of parliament cannot recover their investment and then go on to make a profit on it, without help from the bureaucrats. So they subvert the bureaucracy. Next, they must indemnify themselves against the possibility of facing criminal proceedings on account of their crimes of corruption. To ensure this all law enforcement agencies and the judiciary must also be subverted. Concurrently with this, the political opposition and the media must be made friendly. They make a partnership with the first and buy the second. And ultimately they aim for the greatest immunity of all i.e the certainty to be elected perpetually. This they manage by mangling the constitution.

This is precisely what has happened to Pakistan. What ought to have been a democracy, turned out to be a vast criminal enterprise. Every national institution, except the armed forces, was co-opted, and then destroyed in the process. And also destroyed along with these institutions was the value system which holds any halfway decent society together. 

A system in which one must first invest to get elected, and then make a profit on this investment, has to be founded on the legitimation of plunder. And this leads to the fattening of the leaders and emptying of the national treasury. The already poor are ground into dust, and the middle classes are pushed into poverty.

To expect a  system founded on its opposition to the rule of law to blossom into a democracy, can only be the expectation of an idiot. The system is designed to promote crime. This is exactly what befell Pakistan. On this, there must be total clarity.

But the question that will not easily be put to rest is, whether it was insatiable greed alone which drove the Zardari-Sharif to combine to inflict rape on their motherland, or was there some other force propelling them in this direction as well.

 To get an answer to this we need to examine the case of Iran. There are a number of motivating factors driving the U.S policy against Iran. But the main driver of this policy is Israel’s central, Yinon-driven obsession with Iran i.e to destroy any Muslim country in the middle east which could potentially challenge Israeli hegemony in this region.

Iran has been groaning under decades of sanctions. The aim is to bankrupt this state so that the pain inflicted on the common man brings him out on the street, and this brings about a regime change.

 

 

Pillaging the World. The History and Politics of the IMF

 

 

But Iran does not even have the rudiments of a bomb as yet, while Pakistan has hundreds of them, as well as proven delivery systems. Why are there no sanctions on Pakistan, which is not only potentially a far greater challenge to Israel, but additionally it has done the most to undermine the “containment of China policy” by its full support for the CPEC, which will bring China directly into the middle east?

The answer should be clear as daylight. And this answer is that when you have your team of economic hit men directly ruling the roost in Pakistan, they will do a far quicker job of bringing the country to its knees than any number of sanctions could!

The reader needs to just examine the ease with which loan after the loan was extended to Pakistan for the last ten years, without bringing under scrutiny our country’s ability to repay the same! 

And this is precisely what the role of an Economic Hitman is defined as i.e take the target country to a stage where it no longer has the ability to repay its loans. Once there, such a country’s arm can be twisted to till it surrenders its sovereignty. See the attached video below.

  1. What should be expected to follow?

For the moment Pakistan’s economic situation has left it few options but to borrow more and to print currency to get by. This is directly responsible for the inflation Pakistan is experiencing i.e there is more currency in the country than there are goods to buy, so that the value of the currency is depreciating, while that of the goods is appreciating relative to it.

But very soon all employers, including the government, will have to revise the pay structure of its employees so that people get a livable wage. For this, it will have to print more money. And this will have to be repeated every few months. And the more is the currency that gets printed, the lower the value of money will fall, and the more expensive will the goods become. 

And this is exactly what has happened to the dollar rate. It will keep rising in value in inverse proportion to the fall in the value of the Pakistani rupee i.e as the value of the rupee falls, so that of the dollar will increase.

So unless something spectacular happens to save our hides, we are on our way to hyperinflation. And what follows this is hyper-instability. And this is a frightening prospect.

What makes the situation worse is that a global recession in 1020 is almost a certainty.  And as per economist Nouriel Roubini, if there is a war on Iran, this could result in the first global depression since 1929.

Thus there is little hope for the situation in Pakistan turning around in a year, or two years, or three.

This needs to be foreseen. 

So this is where the Zardari-Sharif machine and their teams of hit men have left Pakistan. That this slide occurred on the watch of two army chiefs, who held ultimate de facto responsibility for national security, makes me retch.

  1. What is the way out?

Nothing in the short term can help ease the economic situation of Pakistan than speeding up work on the CPEC. Additionally, China needs requesting to set up some industries in Pakistan on an urgent basis. Chinese interests in Pakistan will make it likely that they will agree to help out Pakistan. But they will think over this twice unless Pakistan has a strong government and a considerably more efficient bureaucracy in place. And most importantly, China would like Pakistan to be first embedded solidly in the pro-China camp.

It must be quite clear to all that Hafeez Shaikh and company are products of the Chicago School’s economic thinking. They have been schooled to push the neo-liberal economic agenda. It is absolutely essential for Pakistan to get an alternative view on all the economic plans they have crafted. No point wading into what might well turn out to be another economic minefield without first having it reexamined from an alternate point of view.

Be very clear on how to deal with the business community. No raids. No random arrests. It will pay to listen to their genuine grievances and to address them before taking any action against them.

Stolen assets need to be recovered, and hidden ones documented.

The principle that needs to be adopted is that if the people who have plundered Pakistan and inflicted such unbearable pain on its wretched millions do not return stolen assets, they shall not be allowed to enjoy the fruits of their ill-gotten wealth either. No deals, no “production orders”, no A or B class in jail. Let them be treated as the thieves that they are. All their wealth should be confiscated by the state e.g Asif Zardari’s 19 sugar mills etc fall in this category.

And all such people who have not returned stolen assets, should not be allowed to leave the country even after they have completed their jail terms. And those against whom prima facie evidence of wrongdoing exists, but who have yet to be indicted because of the overstretched state resources to do this, should at the very least be put on ECL.

If this is meticulously done, those who have undocumented wealth will on their own begin to come forward to pay their dues. 

Broadening the tax base and the system of gathering taxes has to be improved. A lot will depend upon how FBR functioning is improved. And this is a whole new subject.

How to repatriate assets held abroad will be the real problem, but there are ways to do this as well. No country would want Pakistan to be pushed against the wall to the extent that it will be forced to sell off some of its defense technologies in order to survive. If they SERIOUSLY suspect this, they will become amenable to repatriate both our criminals hiding among them, as wealth as Pakistan’s stolen millions. But this will happen only if China is standing squarely behind Pakistan. 

This drive will have to begin with tightening up NAB. This should begin with bringing Choudhary Qamar Zaman on trial for deliberately facilitating mega-crooks to go free. Begin this by bringing charges against him for the way he handled the Hudaibya case. If this is done, it shall serve notice to the rest of NAB, which needs to be done if NAB is to function optimally.

From all of the above, it should be quite clear that the government can do little to give immediate economic and financial relief to the people of Pakistan, beyond setting the right direction, so that each passing day brings about an improvement. However, what the government can do, without any additional expenditure, is to significantly improve governance. For this to come about, all that is really needed is to weed out the worst officers from all institutions, and place, promote, empower, and support the very best.

Pakistan does not have the financial capital to fall back on. Yet it has reserves of human capital, which it can tap to bring about a significant improvement in governance. Greater reserves of this human capital lie lost in the ranks of the retired, than in those of the serving, which have largely been infected by the rot which spread in the last ten years. It is for the government to set aside many of the rules governing employment and massively requisition the services of such retired officers whose claim to fame was ability and integrity, and who are still in reasonable health to serve the state.

The sad thing, however, is, that even with the limited supply of very good officers which the government can deploy in certain areas to improve governance, this has not been done. One’s take is that on the subject of governance, the performance of the present government is even poorer than the outgoing one. And this must have taken some doing!

But the reason for this is again the “system”. All MNAs and MPAs are interested in having DCs and SPs of choice posted in their constituencies. Their prime interest is not good governance, but that of exercising control.. Thus the system has made the PM hostage blackmail by the legislators, whether these belong to his own party, or belong to his affiliates.

And this is the central problem. Pakistan is forced to sustain a political system which is directly responsible for the ills and maladies the state and its people are suffering from. It is a system which is antithetical to the demands of good government but must be borne nonetheless. Pakistan is in the unhappy position of trying to clean out the village well, without first fishing out the dead dog which is the cause of the pollution. The dog is this very system. The well cannot be cleaned as long as the dog is there. Pakistan is grappling with the direst emergency of its existence, and trying to combat it, pinning its hopes on a dead dog!

Only when there is absolute clarity on this issue can Pakistan move purposefully ahead. This is an emergency situation and must be combated as one. The constitution was deliberately mangled to remove all remedies against such a situation. But the Supreme Court exists. The PM should resort to S.C for an in camera hearing, to lay before it the reality of our national security, and how it has been undermined. He should make a plea for the formation of a national government by the President of Pakistan to tide us through this period of national emergency and to restore the fortunes of the state.

Each day that passes with the government trying to address the situation with tools not adequate to it, is a day lost. And each day the dog stinks worse.

Confessions Of An Economic Hitman

What is an economic hitman? 

Cenk Uygur and John Perkins, hosts of The Conversation, break it down. 

MORE TYT: https://tyt.com/trial

https://youtu.be/t8ZEFpHGFZA

Preview YouTube video Confessions Of An Economic Hitman

 

 

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The budget – or a beggar’s dilemma By Umair Jamal

The budget – or a beggar’s dilemma

Same sob-story – different year

 

“Dar’s ministry, having understood that Pakistan cannot meet the conditions of the IMF regarding employing tough tax and other reforms, has knocked on Beijing’s door, which is willing to give Islamabad loans and bailouts but with conditions that perhaps doesn’t impact Pakistan’s fiscal deficit in the short run.”

 

The economic survey that was released by the finance ministry ahead of the final budget of the current government, heading towards the next general elections, has been heralded as a remarkable accomplishment.

The country’s finance minister seemed jubilant when he quoted the fiscal year’s growth rate at 5.3%. The government has cited the growth rate as the highest achieved in at least last nine years. If one is to closely follow the indicators mentioned in the economic survey, it becomes evident that the numbers and performance indicators remain similar as those which were presented during the last year. However, the promises made by the government last year have been presented with the mere twist of facts, figures and by quoting performance in inflated terms.

Let’s decipher some of the indicators.

The government has claimed that the overall inflation rate was contained to 4.09%. However, the ministry has not clarified the source and basis of this suggestion: what factors were taken into account while arriving at this number? How can the government with the population figures that are based on a 20 years old census can accurately claim any statistics regarding the fall or increase in the country’s inflations rate? If one is to assume that inflation rate has not increased further, as the government claims, that means inflation continues to remain as high as it was during the previous year.

 

 

 

The finance minister, Ishaq Dar, has maintained that Pakistan’s economy has surpassed $300 billion. Dar has failed from explaining that what percentage of this economy is based on borrowed money and loan? Moreover, if the government’s optimism is to be taken as an indicator of growth than the ruling party needs to clarify that how many investments in this regard, and growth was generated by the private investors, small and big, which are hardly a result of the government’s efforts. A large sum of this number, that the government claims were added during the last fiscal year, has come due to the foreign investments whose nature remains beyond scrutiny, for the government has clearly shown reluctance toward making public any of its dealings, primarily with China, that happens to the newest addition to Pakistan’s loan ridden economy.

One of the most interesting aspects of the economic survey was the government’s claim that the fiscal deficit of Pakistan has registered a decrease, from 4.8 to 4.2 percent. While the federal minister quoted cherry picked facts to support his government’s claims of having secured a decrease in the country’s fiscal deficit, the economic realities on the ground point an alternative story: Pakistan today is more burdened with foreign loans and borrowed money than any time in Pakistan’s past history. For instance, the released economic survey doesn’t comprehensively mentions whether the investments and loans coming from China are part of the calculations upon which the government has based its claims of having decreased Pakistan’s fiscal deficit?

There are two major reasons that defy Dar’s claims regarding the decrease of the country’s fiscal deficit. First, Dar’s claim that Pakistan doesn’t need any more loans from the IMF comes in the wake of Pakistan’s growing economic reliance on Chinese loans. Put it in this way: Dar’s ministry, having understood that Pakistan cannot meet the conditions of the IMF regarding employing tough tax and other reforms, the former has knocked on Beijing’s door, which is willing to give Islamabad loans and bailouts but with conditions that perhaps doesn’t impact Pakistan’s fiscal deficit in the short run. A few weeks ago, China gave Pakistan more than 1 billion dollars in emergency loans to rescue the country from an impending currency crisis. The crisis has aggravated due to the rising imbalance in the country’s imports and exports. Recently, the State Bank of Pakistan released a report that noted that Pakistan’s net reserves have dropped to $17.1 billion in February from $18.9 billion in October 2016 and $25 billion several years ago. Another report recently claimed that “Pakistan is entitled to pay China up to $90 billion in three decades for the $50 billion worth of loan and investment portfolio Beijing rendered to the country.”

Second, apparently, the government at the moment is not considering Chinese loans as part of its fiscal deficit scheme which as the recently released report by Dawn claimed, would be returned back in the form of giving China the control of significant chunks of Pakistan’s domestic economy and industry through the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects. However, Dar, on the other hand continues to harp that Pakistan doesn’t need any loans from the IMF, for the country’s economy is rapidly gaining independence. Dar’s claims pose the picture of a bagger’s dilemma where one has to choose between an expansive but pragmatic (IMF) and charming but unviable (China) donor.

Moreover, according to the economic survey and the newly presented budget, Pakistan’s tax collections have increased more than 70 percent in comparison to the previous year. However, the minister of finance has not elaborated that what percentage of these collections were made from the country’s elite class that controls more than half of Pakistan’s economy and continues to defy any regulations that bind them with fair and appropriate tax payments.

It’s unfortunate that the government continues to manipulate facts to showcase a rosy picture of Pakistan’s economy and growth rate which is far-fetched and unrealistic.

Reference

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Will we be the 16th largest economy in 2050? by Khurram Husain

Will we be the 16th largest economy in 2050?

By

Khurram Husain |

2/16/2017 

A REPORT by PwC has everyone talking due to a claim reportedly made in it that Pakistan will be the world`s 16th largest economy by the year 2050.

The finance minister has gone the extra mile by publicly congratulating the country on the `economic turnaround` affected by his government, citing the PwC report and an opinion piece in Bloomberg by George Mason University`s Professor Tyler Cowen, in which he says that `most of Pakistan`s developments are fairly positive`.

Unfortunately, the finance minister, in his enthusiasm, claimed that Bloomberg has also declared Pakistan as the most underrated economy in the world in its recent report titled Pakistan`s Economy Is a Pleasant Surprise. In f act, the piece in question is not a `report` but an opinion column, and below it, the following disclaimer is clearly featured: `This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

In any case, let`s take the example of the PwC report since it is weightier and the claim being made sounds far more spectacular. The first thing to note is this: the PwC report does not say anywhere that Pakistan is going to be the 16th largest economy in the world by 2050. What it says is that Pakistan has the potential to be the 16th largest economy in the world by 2050. There is an important difference between both claims, and it should be borne in mind before popping any corks.

So the first obvious question to ask is this: what needs to be done in order to unlock this potential? The PwC report does not dwell on Pakistan in any detail. It features extended analyses on Poland, India, China, and Brazil, as well as boxed analyses on Turkey, Nigeria, and Columbia. It pinpoints Vietnam, India and Bangladesh `to be three of the world`s fastest-growing economies` till 2050, and says `Mexico could be larger than the UK and Germany by 2050`. Pakistan only features on a couple of lists presented in the report, showing it as having the potential to become a large economy by 2050 in purchasing power parity terms.

`To realize this growth potential,` the report says at the outset, `emerging market governments need to implement structural reforms to improve macroeconomic stability, diversify their economies away from undue reliance on natural resources (where this is currently the case), and develop effective political and legal institutions`.

Next question to ask is: how do they make their projections? What methodology do they use? The report projects future GDP growth rates based on four variables demographics, or the growth of a working-age population; growth in quality of the workforce, measured through average education levels in the workforce; growth in physical capital stock, measured as new investment minus depreciation of existing stock; and technological progress.

As any of these indicators improve, the projection for that country`s future GDP growth rate goes up. On top of that, they make an assumption about real market exchange rates relative to purchasing power parity rates. So if a country is a food importer, and its exchange rate depreciates significantly over time, that would make its food more expensive, thereby lowering its GDP in purchasing power parity terms.

A significant share of the boost that Pakistan gets in this projection comes from the large growth of its working-age population till 2050, compared to the ageing populations of the advanced industrial West or the advanced countries of the Far East (Japan and Korea for example and China`s workforce will be weighed down in the decades to come due to its one-child policy).

Second, Pakistan is food self-sufficient, which means food prices are relatively immune from international shocks, and below what they are in many other countries at the same level of development. This gives a boost to our GDP in purchasing power parity terms.

And that`s pretty much all folks. This methodology says we should grow rather spectacularly in the decades to come because the sheer number of able-bodied people available to work will increase and we can grow enough food to feed them all while keeping food prices under check. In fact, as per the data in the report, Pakistan has the second largest growth in the number of average working age population till 2050,afterEgypt.

The long story here is that the projections made in the report come with a heavy caveat. In order to unlock this potential, we will need further reforms in our political and institutional systems of rule, as well as diversification of our manufacturing base, increase productivity, and fix our balance of payments to underpin macroeconomic stability.

The short story is that, in our case, the methodology used to make the projections has given us a boost largely on the basis of a growing population.

If we can continue investing in our capital stock at present levels, and educate and feed each of these working-age members of the population at cheap rates, then our economy will have this potential.

The report is not meant to spark national celebrations. It is not even meant as a guide for policymakers. It is mainly aimed at large corporations and is trying to tell their leadership that, over the long run, the trade winds are blowing eastward.

Therefore, in order to position their enterprises to capture the dividends that this large, irreversible shift of economic dynamism towards the east is going to bring, they need to start entering markets like China and India n and solidify their presence in these economies. And in doing so, it uses a very broad brushstroke methodology to highlight the underlying sources of strength in the new centers of dynamism.

Pakistan found itself on the list largely by accident, by virtue of its young population and food self-sufficiency. Perhaps we`ll tap this potential, but let`s not pop any corks just yet.•

The writer is a member of staff.

khurram.husain@gmail.com Twitter: @khurramhusain

Editor’s Note: Even today, Pakistan’s underground tax evaders run economy is bigger than the prevailing economy.

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India afraid of Pakistan’s economic stability: Swedish Think Tank

India afraid of Pakistan's economic stability: Swedish thinktank

Swedish think-tank has pointed out that India is afraid of Pakistan’s economic stability through China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

According to the report titled “Silk Road Economic Belt considering security implications and the EU-China cooperation prospects”, India does not want China to perform as a mediator in the disputes, a private news channel reported.

“There is considerable concern within India that China, which has been neutral on Kashmir since 1963, can no longer be so now that its economic and security interests in these territories are growing in stake,” says a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri) – a Sweden-based think tank.

It further stated that China’s involvement after implementation of CPEC would possibly make it a stakeholder in Kashmir dispute as India does not want to internationalize this matter.

The report stated that India is depressed over the chances of employment in Pakistan after CPEC project.

Reference

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