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Archive for category Foreign Policy

Moynihan, Zionism, and Racism: What Went Wrong?

 

November 30, 2012, 11:04 AM

  • My early twenties are often hazy, but I remember one evening pretty well. A woman friend came over, and we watched the 1975 UN debate on the notorious Zionism=Racism resolution on TV. I felt the Arab charges against Israel were completely outrageous, an inversion of truth quite literally Orwellian in magnitude. U.S. Ambassador Daniel Moynihan was eloquent in rebutting them, reading a speech (I later learned) partially drafted by Norman Podhoretz. Next year when Moynihan ran for Senate, I remember pulling the lever for him (in the Democratic primary, v. Bella Abzug) with more conviction than I’ve mustered in a voting booth before or since.

Moynihan and Norman Podhoretz eventually drifted apart, but I’m sure the senator never regretted the words he spoke on that night. Once, many years later, when he came to theNY Post editorial page offices, he told a story–I don’t recall the subject–in which he  described a politician as “the most enthusiastic Zionist you could imagine, you’ve never seen such a Zionist” in tones which may, or may not, have exuded a whiff of mockery, you couldn’t be sure. In any case, in those days the idea that Zionism, the national liberation movement of the Jewish people, a phrase central to the speech, could be defined racist was about as absurd, and obscene, a thought as one could possibly imagine. At least so we thought.

I recalled that night while watching on streaming web TV yesterday’s vote to recognize Palestine as an observer state, which passed 138-9, over the votes of the U.S. and Canada and a handful of small island countries. Unlike the 1975 vote, this wasn’t close: then Israel had on its side the entire Western world, the Third World was split, only the Communist bloc and Arab countries and much of Africa was in favor; despite its passage with 70 votes, there was no question that the free and economically productive part of the world was on Israel’s side.

Yesterday’s vote on Palestine was a different matter: it certainly didn’t disavow Zionism or Israel the way the 1975 vote did. Every speaker I saw explicitly recognized Israel and wished for its well being, free and secure with a Palestinian state alongside it, a phrase repeated ad nauseam during the debate.

But of course, 37 years later, Israel is different. The very day of the vote, one reads debate about a new bus line on the West Bank, for Palestinians, because the Israeli settlers (whom Israel has illegally settled on Palestinian land) can’t bear to see Palestinians riding on the same buses they do. One reads recently of Israeli laws expressing a national angst that a small population of Arabs remained in 1948–so there are rabbinic admonitions to landlords proscribing renting to Arabs. Recently Israeli youth have gone on violent rampages in Jerusalem, targeting Palestinians or random immigrants. Videos of young Americans imbibing the atmosphere in Israel reveal a mindset evocative of  Mississippi in the early 1960s. Rather eerily, it seems almost as if the notorious Zionism=Racism canard anticipated what Israel would become, once it had the freedom and security to grow into its true self.

And yet Israel has won. There is no state in the world unwilling  to recognize it, provided it makes peace with the Palestinians. If you compared the international atmosphere now with that of 40 years ago, you would have to conclude the Israelis had achieved everything they wanted: a durable peace with Egypt; no hostile superpower to arm its enemies; an oft-repeated readiness in the Arab world to recognize it, trade ambassadors, give it a place in the region.  It has an international legitimacy that its founders–and the  Israeli diplomats of 1975–would have delighted in.

But of course Israel doesn’t feel that way at all. Like some sort of  compulsive eater, it has been unable to keep itself from gobbling up and settling Arab territory, especially East Jerusalem and the West Bank. As a result, it now finds itself losing the votes not only of the Arab world, but of France and Spain and Norway and Sweden and Denmark, and no longer has the support of Britain and Germany. This isolation Israel has chosen freely for itself–as a democracy, Israelis can’t even blame their rulers. Of course, Israel has enough influence over the U.S. Congress to generate resolutions in the Senate about protecting “our ally”; it actually seems possible that body may soon vote to exclude the United States from the United Nations in order to preserve Israel’s control over “Judea” and “Samaria.”

One can’t compare last night’s vote with the one in 1975 without feeling sadness and an enormous sense of missed opportunity.

November 30, 2012, 11:04 AM

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The Peoples Republic of China : A Pakistani Perspective

The Peoples Republic of China

China’s Economic Model

pak china flag 400

Dr Farrukh Saleem,

The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad. Email: [email protected]
Sunday, November 25, 2012
From Print Edition The News Pakistan Daily

Q: What is China’s economic model?

 

A: China’s economic model is export driven. In order to keep the world’s largest labour force – some 780 million Chinese – employed China must export $1.9 trillion worth of goods and services. China uses a variation of the old ‘Japanese model’ that revolves around value addition to raw material and the export of finished products.

 

Q: Who are China’s trade partners?

 

A: The United States is China’s largest export market (roughly 25 percent of all Chinese exports are bought by the Americans). The EU is the second largest importer buying some 17 percent of China’s exports.

 

Q: What are the two main weaknesses of China’s economic model?

 

A: First – China’s growth model is completely dependent on the US and the EU. Second – China’s exports are completely dependent on the South China Sea and the East China Sea. To be certain, all commercial sea lanes around China are completely controlled by the Seventh Fleet of the United States Navy.

 

Q: What about income inequalities in China?

 

A: China’s export-led growth model has led to an urban-rural/coastal-inland income disparity of over 300 percent in favour of China’s urban population. Currently, around 500 million rural Chinese continue to survive at under $2 a day. This income disparity has been behind 180,000 recorded ‘mass incidents’ in 2010 including strikes, demonstrations and protests (a ‘mass incident’ in China is defined as “at least 15 participants”). In 2006, there were 90,000 ‘mass incidents’ (figures on ‘mass incidents’ are maintained by Nankai University, a public research university based in Tianjin).

 

Q: What is China’s security model?

 

A: Internal security is the responsibility of 2.3 million active-duty personnel of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and 1.5 million personnel of the People’s Armed Police (PAP). External security is configured around “four non-Han Chinese buffer states of Manchuria, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang and Tibet.”

 

Q: What is the primary responsibility of the PLA?

 

A: The primary responsibility of the PLA, as well as the PAP, is internal security. The PLA is the ultimate guarantor of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) hold over undiluted power. The PLA, as a consequence, has little or no capability to project Chinese power into foreign lands (that’s unlike the United States Armed Forces that are almost exclusively configured to project American power into foreign lands).

 

Q: Why are rich Chinese leaving China?

 

A: According to the Bank of China, 46 percent of Chinese with assets of more than 10 million yuan ($1.6 million) were “either in the process of emigrating, or were planning to do so.” In 2007, less than 300 rich Chinese applied to emigrate to the US. Last year, a 10-fold increase was recorded when 2,969 rich Chinese applied to emigrate to the US. The three top concerns are: security of assets, fear for the future and education of their children.

 

Q: What about China’s demographics?

 

A: China is aging – 119 million Chinese are now over 65. By 2014, two years from now, China will be the only country in the world with 200 million elderly people. All this means a large, economically non-productive population – really bad news for future economic growth.

 

P.S. Some of the above concepts were first laid out by George Friedman of Strategic Forecasting.

 

Capital suggestion

An Opinion

Michael T.Clare 


If you want to know which way the global wind is blowing (or the sun shining or the coal burning), watch China. That’s the news for our energy future and for the future of great-power politics on planet Earth. Washington is already watching—with anxiety.

Rarely  has a simple press interview said more about the global power shifts taking place in our world. On July 20, the chief economist of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol,told the Wall Street Journal that China had overtaken the United States to become the world’s number-one energy consumer. One can read this development in many ways: as evidence of China’s continuing industrial prowess, of the lingering recession in the United States, of the growing popularity of automobiles in China, even of America’s superior energy efficiency as compared to that of China. All of these observations are valid, but all miss the main point: by becoming the world’s leading energy consumer, China will also become an ever more dominant international actor and so set the pace in shaping our global future.

Because energy is tied to so many aspects of the global economy, and because doubts are growing about the future availability of oil and other vital fuels, the decisions China makes regarding its energy portfolio will have far-reaching consequences. As the leading player in the global energy market, China will significantly determine not only the prices we will be paying for critical fuels but also the type of energy systems we will come to rely on. More importantly, China’s decisions on energy preferences will largely determine whether China and the United States can avoid becoming embroiled in a global struggle over imported oil and whether the world will escape catastrophic climate change.

How to Rise to Global Pre-eminence

You can’t really appreciate the significance of China’s newfound energy prominence if you don’t first grasp the role of energy in America’s rise to global pre-eminence.

That the Northeastern region of the young United States was richly endowed with waterpower and coal deposits was critical to the country’s early industrialization as well as to the North’s eventual victory in the Civil War. It was the discovery of oil in western Pennsylvania in 1859, however, that would turn the United States into the decisive actor on the global stage. Oil extraction and exports fueled American prosperity in the early twentieth century—a time when the country was the planet’s leading producer—while nurturing the rise of its giant corporations.

It should never be forgotten that the world’s first great transnational corporation—John D. Rockefeller’s Standard Oil Company was founded on the exploitation and export of American petroleum. Anti-trust legislation would break up Standard Oil in 1911, but two of its largest descendants, Standard Oil of New York and Standard Oil of New Jersey, were later fused into what is now the world’s wealthiest publicly traded enterprise, ExxonMobil. Another descendant, Standard Oil of California, became Chevron—today, the third-richest American corporation.

Oil also played a key role in the rise of the United States as the world’s pre-eminent military power. This country supplied most of the oil consumed by Allied forces in both World War I and World War II. Among the great powers of the time, the United States alone was self-sufficient in oil, which meant it could deploy massive armies to Europe and Asia and overpower the well-equipped (but oil-starved) German and Japanese militaries. Few realize this today, but for the architects of America’s victory in the Second World War, including President Roosevelt, it was the nation’s superior endowment of petroleum, not the atom bomb, that proved decisive.

Having created an economy and military establishment based on oil, American leaders were compelled to employ ever more costly and desperate measures to ensure that both always had an adequate supply of energy. After World War II, with domestic reserves already beginning to shrink, a succession of presidents fashioned a global strategy based on ensuring American access to overseas petroleum.

As a start, Saudi Arabia and the other Persian Gulf kingdoms were chosen to serve as overseas “filling stations” for US refiners and military forces. American oil companies, especially the descendants of Standard Oil, were aided and abetted in establishing a major presence in these countries. To a considerable extent, in fact, the great postwar strategic pronouncements—the Truman Doctrine, the Eisenhower Doctrine, the Nixon Doctrine and especially theCarter Doctrine—were all tied to the protection of these “filling stations.”

Today, too, oil plays a critical role in Washington’s global plans and actions. The Department of State, for example, still maintains an elaborate, costly and deeply entrenched military capability in the Persian Gulf to ensure the “safety” and “security” of oil exports from the region. It has also extended its military reach to such key oil-producing regions as the Caspian Sea basin and western Africa. The need to retain friendly ties and military relationships with key suppliers like Kuwait, Nigeria, and Saudi Arabia continues to dominate US foreign policy. Similarly, in a globally warming world, a growing American interest in the melting Arctic is being propelled by a desire to exploit the polar region’s untapped hydrocarbon reserves.


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How the War on Terror and Zardari’s Collaboration with the West has Damaged Pakistani Economy, Industry, Social, Political Sectors and its People

 

The international war on terror has caused more suffering, deaths and destruction to the people of Pakistan than of any other country in the world. Soon after the tragedy of September 11, 2001, Pakistan allied itself with the United States and the international community in the war against terror. The US-led invasion against the government of Taliban in Afghanistan commenced in 2001. The Talibans were defeated but could not be eliminated. Their resistance has now assumed the shape of an insurgency and an armed struggle against the foreign forces and their local supporters.  During the last three decades (1978-2008), Afghanistan has been in a state of war: first against the Soviet Union, later amongst themselves, then against the Taliban government and, at present, against the Western forces. Pakistan has had to accommodate millions of refugees entering the country since 1978. In the beginning, their number had risen to about six million but even at present this is not less than 2.6 million. Since Pakistan is a major non- NATO ally and is supporting the war against the militants in Afghanistan, the Taliban insurgency has spilled over to the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), adjacent to Afghanistan, and is gradually threatening the adjoining settled areas of North West Frontier Province (NWFP) as well as causing sporadic acts of violence and terrorism in the rest of the country. The fight against militants during the past two years (2007-2008) alone has cost Pakistan over 1000 members of its law enforcement agencies (LEAs) and about 4000 civilians, besides injuring over 2000 members of LEAs and about 8000 others. As an impact of this war, terrorist activities are on the rise, the economy is sliding downward, the much-needed foreign investment is not forthcoming and the development of the country is being adversely affected. It is officially estimated that Pakistan has suffered a loss of about Rs. 678 billion during the last five years and as much as Rs. two to three trillion during the previous decade. Pakistan is likely to continue to suffer as long as there is no peace in Afghanistan. During the last three decades (1978-2008), Afghanistan has been in a state of war: first against the Soviet Union, later amongst themselves, then against the Taliban government and, at present, against the Western forces. Pakistan has had to accommodate millions of refugees entering the country since 1978. In the beginning, their number had risen to about six million but even at present this is not less than 2.6 million. Since Pakistan is a major non- NATO ally and is supporting the war against the militants in Afghanistan, the Taliban insurgency has spilled over to the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), adjacent to Afghanistan, and is gradually threatening the adjoining settled areas of North West Frontier Province (NWFP) as well as causing sporadic acts of violence and terrorism in the rest of the country.The fight against militants during the past two years (2007-2008) alone has cost Pakistan over 1000 members of its law enforcement agencies (LEAs) and about 4000 civilians, besides injuring over 2000 members of LEAs and about 8000 others. As an impact of this war, terrorist activities are on the rise, the economy is sliding downward, the much-needed foreign investment is not forthcoming and the development of the country is being adversely affected. It is officially estimated that Pakistan has suffered a loss of about Rs. 678 billion during the last five years and as much as Rs. two to three trillion during the previous decade. Pakistan is likely to continue to suffer as long as there is no peace in Afghanistan.

 

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U.S.-Iran-Israel vortex of conflict: Rushing to an unwanted war?


The drumbeats of war against Iran by Israel defy all conventional geopolitical rationales in the region at a time when the U.S. military interventions in two countries of Afghanistan and Iraq have led to enormous costs and disappointing results in both blood and treasure.

Thus far, more than 6,300 American troops killed and nearly 50,000 wounded in Iraq and Afghanistan, with an unbelievable cost estimated at $3 trillion—not to mention the horrendous human and material costs in victimized countries. And now enter the talk of military strikes against Iran. Attacking Iran is likely to descend the Persian Gulf region into chaos, sending oil prices through the roof. A military strike will also inflame Iranians’ nationalistic sentiments and cause them to rally around the government. Furthermore, an Osiraq-style attack, carried out in 1981 against Iraq, stands little chance of success in a huge country like Iran that has dispersed its nuclear power installations across the country. How many sorties are needed to accomplish a successful military mission, if there ever was one in such a context: 200 sorties? And 7-10 days of constant bombing? I am not a military analyst, but I am dumbfounded at the duplicity and naiveté with which such talk of war intoxicates the political ambiance in which Republican contenders who are running for the 2012 presidential elections utter their preference for marching toward war with Iran.

For its part, the Netanyahu administration in Israel intends to drag the United States into the war with Iran—a war that many politicians on left and right consider incompatible with the U.S. long-term interests in the region—in large part because Israelis know that an attack on Iran is not an easy task, nor much can be achieved by doing so; thus they intend to use the U.S. presidential elections as an opportunity to ratchet up the pressure on the Obama administration to cave in. Yet, U.S. military generals, who see no desirable outcome stemming from attacking Iran, have frequently warned against being sucked into an unwanted war.

To escape the pressure of Israeli Lobby (AIPAC), the Obama administration is constantly hammering at the point that economic sanctions will effect change in Iran’s behavior, while insisting on imposing the most devastating economic sanctions on Iran’s central bank. Many experts argue that this level of intensity of multilateral sanctions could choke off Iran’s economy, weakening the possibility of compelling Iranians to negotiate. Meanwhile, the United States has yet to provide any realistic and tangible opportunity for Iran to come to the negotiating table. On December 5, 2001, at the Bonn Conference, Iranians and their American counterparts negotiated over the future of Afghanistan—a diplomatic exchange that lasted for only 45 minutes. Since then, U.S. foreign policymakers have emphasized either sanctions or military options, as if there is no realistic chance for diplomacy and negotiations to work.

As a result, the trust between Iran and the United States has reached a nadir in the modern history of diplomatic ties between the two countries. Today, the United States has nearly 45 military bases around Iran, bent on containing Chinese influence in the region, and using the occasion of the uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa, as some observers note, to effect regime change in Iran. The Netanyahu administration is threatening Iran with air strikes, while sabotaging military installations, deploying the Stuxnet computer worm and virus, and assassinating Iranian nuclear scientists inside Iran. While the United States has approximately 8,500 nuclear warheads and Israel nearly 75-200, it is mindboggling that all of the sudden Iran has become the greatest threat of all time in the region, even as there is no evidence that Iranian leaders have decided to weaponize their nuclear energy program. The basic question that remains unanswered is this: given that nuclear weapons haven’t rendered Russia, China, Pakistan, and India hostile in the past, why should then they make Iran hostile, if Iranian leaders ever decide to move in that direction? Nuclear weapons aren’t enough for Iran, and for that matter, any other country to yield power, and, therefore, the threat has been exaggerated. Quite the contrary, China’s influence and its ability to leverage its economic power across the globe has to do with its competitive economic clout. Similarly, it is India’s software industry—not its nuclear might—that has resulted in its great stride on the global scene. It is also fair to ask: how has Pakistan’s nuclear power contributed to its influence and power in the region? All this saber-rattling against Iran—a country that since 1798 has not invaded any of its neighbors—is beyond any conventional wisdom.

There are reasons to hold a serious negotiation with Iran. The mutual security interests of the United States and Iran in restoring stability to Iraq and Afghanistan have unexpectedly merged. Both Hamid Karzai, Afghanistan’s president, and Nouri Al-Maliki, Iraq’s prime minister, see Iran’s role as positive and vitally significant to their country’s stability. Moreover, there is a growing consensus in Iran—in spite of its polarized politics—that dialogue with its neighbors, such as Iraq, Pakistan, Turkey, and Afghanistan, is the only way to enhance peace in the region. Increasingly, experts and diplomats, inside and outside the region, argue that a military attack against Iran will prove to be a geopolitical disaster and that no single factor would more aid the U.S. capacity to redress the power balance in the Middle East than U.S.-Iran cooperation. It is time to pursue serious, direct negotiations that address Iran’s security concerns and its legitimate desire as well as right to enrich uranium for medical purposes and build an infrastructure for power generation, bearing in mind that bargaining is not appeasement.

Mahmood Monshipouri is associate professor of International Relations at San Francisco State University. He is working on a book on the Arab Spring and its regional implications.

Thursday 01 March 2012

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The Impact of bin Laden’s Death on U.S.-Pakistan Relations and the Afghan War

US Pakistan relationsAt least seventeen suspected militants were killed in a drone attack in Waziristan, on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, on Friday. The attack by four American unmanned aircraft is the first such operation in Pakistan since bin Laden’s capture and execution by US Special Forces a little over a week ago. The drone attacks have sparked severe anti-American sentiment against the Obama Administration. Meanwhile, the U.S. government has released home videos of bin Laden rehearsing for his video addresses. The material was obtained during the raid last week and was released in order to undermine bin Laden’s martydom. In the wake of the operation, Pakistanis have expressed concern that the US violated Pakistani sovereignty during its mission to capture bin Laden because it operated without the consent of the Pakistani government. Bin Laden was captured down the street from the country’s elite military academy, and the Pakistani military has already been ridiculed for being too inept to capture bin Laden. Pakistan, a growing nuclear power, has had a rocky relationship with the United States. Activist and professor Pervez Hoodbhoy wrote in the Pakistani newspaper, The Tribune, “Bin Laden was the ‘Golden Goose’ that the army had kept under its watch but which, to its chagrin, has now been stolen from under its nose. Until then, the thinking had been to trade in the Goose at the right time for the right price, either in the form of dollars or political concessions.” This year alone, Congress has appropriated $3 billion in non-military aid to Pakistan. However, a bill introduced to the House Committee on Foreign Affairs is calling for Pakistan to prove that it knew nothing about bin Laden’s whereabouts in order to continue receiving aid. Both Republican and Democratic lawmakers have criticized the co-sponsors of the bill of being too hasty to punish Pakistan. “I think people who have been married 30 years still have some problems, but they don’t get divorced,” says House Armed Services Chairman Buck McKeon about the bill.

GUEST: Shahid Mahmood, political analyst, former editorial cartoonist for Dawn, a national newspaper in Pakistan. He is now internationally syndicated with the New York Times Syndicate.

9 May 2011, 10:17 am


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