Our Announcements
Sorry, but you are looking for something that isn't here.
Posted by Dr. Manzer Durrani in Defense on March 6th, 2012
In South Asia, an unprecedented nuclear build-up is underway and gaining momentum spurred by Pakistan’s break-neck effort to double its already sizable arsenal over the next decade (rising from 125 weapons today to 250-350 over the next 5-10 years). India is playing serious catch-up with new land-based rockets and a new strategic submarine in its mix of delivery systems after a decade of sluggish growth (its current small arsenal of 25 weapons will increase to 100 over the next 5-10 years).
Pakistan has the fastest growing nuclear weapons program in the world, according to U.S. officials cited by a leading American nuclear expert, David Albright. With 120-130 thousand people directly involved in its nuclear weapons production and nuclear-armed missile program, Pakistan is completing construction on two new plutonium reactors (less than 100 miles from the scene of fighting between the Army and the Taliban) and building other infrastructure.
Pakistan does not officially reveal the cost of its secret nuclear program. In 2009, a credible assessment by a investigative journalist with expertise in the subject provided information on which we can calculate the overall nuclear program budget (weapons and missile delivery systems) to be approximately $781 million — $300 million for the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission and $481 million for the strategic missile delivery system. This sum represents 10 percent of Pakistan’s annual defense budget ($7.9 billion). Independently, an American expert on the Pakistani nuclear program suggested that Pakistan spends up to 10 percent of its defense budget on nuclear forces. This report assumes that the current budget pressure on the Pakistani program is containing cost growth in 2011; core and full costs are estimated at $800 million and $2 billion, respectively. The health and environmental consequences of Pakistan’s recent expansion of its infrastructure constitute a significant cost which can be expected to grow rapidly as new plutonium factories come on line. Furthermore, core spending on the nuclear program is likely to grow significantly for the rest of the decade as Pakistan undertakes a rapid build-up, perhaps by two- or three-fold, of its arsenal.
India’s nuclear program is largely keyed to China’s and to a lesser extent to Pakistan’s, and both of India’s nuclear rivals are expanding their arsenals sufficiently to stimulate India’s program. India has always minimized the role of nuclear weapons in its national security strategy, and consequently was slow to acquire an arsenal and restrained in the size of the arsenal it built. The impetus to expand the arsenal is stronger today, however. India’s modernization program already has considerable momentum yielding as much as a four-fold increase in the Indian arsenal over the next decade.
India, like Pakistan, keeps its nuclear budget under wraps. Very few details are publicly known about the program, and its cost is rarely discussed in public. One published estimate contends that the Indian program, very conservatively estimated, costs 0.5 percent of annual GDP. Using $1.538 trillion dollars as the GDP of India, this would mean that India spends about $7.7 billion on nuclear weapons at purchasing power parity exchange rates. This would represent 22 percent of India’s overall defense budget, a proportion that exceeds Pakistan’s ratio of nuclear to overall spending by a factor of two, and China’s ratio by a factor of four.
This report assumes that India’s nuclear spending does not exceed 10 percent of its overall military spending, a fraction in line with current Pakistani allocations. India’s nuclear budget would thus be about $3.8 for core costs, which is about 60 percent of China’s nuclear budget. We estimate the full cost to be $4.9 billion.
Posted by Dr. Manzer Durrani in Defense on February 29th, 2012
The government on Tuesday decided to appoint Air Marshal Tahir Rafique Butt as the new Chief of Air Staff of Pakistan Air Force (PAF).
Butt, who now awaits the president’s decision on the matter, will succeed Air Chief Marshal Rao Qamar Suleman, who is due to retire on March 18 after completing his three-year term.
“Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani has advised the president to appoint Air Marshal Tahir Rafique Butt, being the senior-most air marshal, as the new chief of air staff of Pakistan Air Force,” said an official announcement.
Earlier reports indicated that five air marshals had been in the race to become the next air chief. However, upholding the principle of seniority, the government chose Butt, similar to when the government appointed the new chief of naval staff, last year.
“It clearly reflects that the government wants to ensure merit when it comes to such key appointments,” said a ruling party member, requesting anonymity.
Under the Constitution, the prime minister is given the prerogative to appoint three services chiefs. After Butt’s appointment, all eyes will now be on the prime minister to see whether he will grant further extensions to current Inter-Services Intelligence chief Lt Gen Ahmed Shuja Pasha, whose extended term also expires on March 18.
Meanwhile, Army chief Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani called on Prime Minister Gilani on Tuesday amid speculations that the two discussed the fate of Gen Pasha.
The government has yet to come up with a clear stance on the subject while there have been conflicting reports from the military brass. One military official claimed that Gen Pasha might be given another extension for the continuity of policies. However, others insisted that it was a highly unlikely step for the government to take.
Air Marshal Butt joined PAF on March 6, 1977 as a GD pilot. He assumed the office of Vice Chief of the Air Staff on October 5, 2010. In recognition of his meritorious services, he has been decorated with Hilal-i-Imtiaz (Military), Sitara-i-Imtiaz (Military) and Tamgha-i-Basalat.
The outgoing air chief has overseen a successful term which involved key inductions into the PAF, including the serial production and induction of the JF-17 fighter aircraft. Suleman will also be remembered for famously claiming, contrary to the government’s stance, the PAF had the capability to shoot down US-operated Predator drones. However, his claims came under scrutiny after US forces managed to infiltrate Pakistani airspace, conduct a covert operation in Abbottabad, and exit without confrontation.
Published in The Express Tribune, February 29th, 2012.
Posted by Dr. Manzer Durrani in Defense on February 27th, 2012
Narrating this story is Hercharn Singh, Pakistan’s first Sikh officer and a symbol of the changing face of its army. Now 23, dressed in a smart khaki uniform and sporting a solitary star on his shoulder, Lieutenant Singh and I are sitting in the posh Officers’ Mess of Malir cantonment, Karachi. Providing us company are Capt Danish in his Rangers uniform and Capt Aneel Kumar, both Hindu and doctors at the Combined Military Hospital. Capt Danish (who says he’s just Danish) is considered the first Hindu officer of the army.
MASH patrol: Capt Aneel Kumar (left) and Capt Danish
As we talk, they display some sense of occasion, listening in rapt attention to the experiences of each other in the army. Says Singh about his PMA days, “At times, I used to wonder where I had landed myself. I stood out like a sore thumb, many of the cadets had never seen a Sikh in the flesh. I had a tough time because of my appearance.
Capt Danish is a Hindu doctor from Tharparkar district who has served in the Wana tribal area. The others—Hindu and Christian—at least look like ‘ordinary’ cadets.”
For nearly two years now, Outlook has been seeking access to Singh and the two Hindu officers. It took months of persistent lobbying by the Inter Services Public Relations director-general, Gen Athar Abbas, before the army agreed to allow an Indian publication to interview the three officers. As Col Atif coordinated to fly me to Karachi last week, new obstacles kept surfacing. Lt Col Idrees Malik had to implore his superiors to grant permission for Singh to miss a day’s class of the course he’s taking, and bring Capt Danish from interior Sindh.
At the officers’ mess, amidst smiles and a display of palpable pride, Singh begins his story from the day his romance sparked with the Pakistan army. Like all such stories, it was ignited with a chance glimpse and an irrepressible tug at the heartstrings. It was nearly three years ago, and he and his friends had decided to apply to the prestigious National College of Arts (NCA) in Lahore. On the way, they passed an army recruitment centre. Something about it spoke to him, perhaps. “But no one had any idea of a Sikh being allowed entry into Pakistan’s military institutions,” Singh recalls.
Singh got admission to the NCA but he decided to visit the recruitment centre to make inquiries. When told the law didn’t proscribe Sikhs from the army, he promptly submitted an application, apparently arousing curiosity at the centre even then about the “Sikh who wants to join the army”. Capt Aneel Kumar, a doctor at the Combined Military Hospital, says his Hindu family had no idea what the army was like.
At the PMA, the callow, sensitive Sardarji was baffled by some insensitive souls asking him to convert to Islam. “I wondered what kind of people are these who are not happy with the way I am, who offered to convert me. I didn’t mind jokes about Sikhs because these are so common,” he says wryly. But at Kakul, with young cadets and their irritating inquisitiveness, it took some chutzpah to ensure his religion or culture was not compromised. But he had his sergeant on his side. As Singh puts it, “My sergeant told me I was free to follow my religion and that everything would be done to make me comfortable.”
Singh now did two things—he told his room-mate if they had to share a room they must show tolerance for each other’s religious codes of living; his second act was daring and sagacious. He approached the commandant to make a presentation about his faith. “With the help of a documentary from the Golden Temple and my own literature I gave a presentation about the Sikh religion and culture. I explained why I looked the way I did, the symbols of faith a Sikh is never found without. Then I asked for questions,” says Singh, bubbling with confidence. “In the next two years at the PMA, no questions were asked.”
But Singh’s glory days didn’t end at the PMA. His excellent drill at Kakul prompted the army to choose him for guard duty at the Quaid-e-Azam Mazar, or the mausoleum of Mohammed Ali Jinnah. “I couldn’t believe it, no Sikh here could even imagine such a thing.” In these days of jehadi intolerance, a new chapter had opened. Of course, it was also a huge PR win-win situation, his duty at the mausoleum invited international media attention, and his family was flooded with calls from Sikhs the world over.
The induction of Singh, Danish and Aneel marks a revolutionary change for the Pakistan army, but then it poses new challenges too. The sheer enormity of this change can be gleaned from a reading of Dr Aneela Zeb Babar’s Texts of War: The Religio-Military Nexus in Pakistan and India. She writes, “In Pakistan, the military officer is not just a professional. Placed on a pedestal, he is glorified as a hero. The public feels he is performing his religious duty…. All advertisements for recruitment in the Pakistan military and all publicity material start with Quranic verses.” Dr Babar quotes junior Muslim officers describing their motivational lectures, “We are taught that in the Quran one Muslim is equal to 10 kafirs and after every lecture, slogans praising God and caliph Ali are raised.” Will the trio’s induction prompt a change now in the army’s ethos, perhaps a dilution of its Islamic orientation or at least some understanding of those officers who belong to minority communities.
Perhaps this is already happening—the three non-Muslim officers, like most others here, wear their religion on their sleeves with a confidence quite remarkable for their age and ambience. Both Danish and Aneel testify to this. “We are very comfortable with our Hindu faith. We too had been assured by the sergeant (during their training) that we were free to worship as we wanted and if there was any way he could help, we shouldn’t hesitate to come to him.” Danish, incidentally, hails from the remote poverty-stricken Tharparkar, and graduated as a doctor before he saw an advertisement for a post in the army. He applied without taking his family into confidence and was selected. “Initially, there were constraints…about how a Hindu could fit in the army but today they are proud of me and I have even been sent to Wana (a tribal area) to deal with patients there. It was a very different experience. The place and people were so different from the desert of Sindh,” he says.
Aneel, who belongs to Hyderabad, says the army’s ignorance about religions other than Islam is matched by the Hindu community’s sketchy knowledge about cantonment life. “People from my community had earlier interacted only with the police…we had no idea what the army was like,” admits Aneel, even as he expresses hope that youth from his community would see Danish and him as role models and strive to join the officer cadre. Singh, however, doubts whether many Sikhs would join the army, largely because his community is engaged in business with their counterparts in India. Army officers who have relatives doing business with Indians would be a major problem, Singh declares.
For Sikhs at least, an army career marks a snapping of the umbilical cord tying them to religious places in India. Singh, for instance, has given up on his dream of visiting the Golden Temple in Amritsar. “I am a Pakistani army officer now and I can’t even think of performing my religious duties in India. Even my mother will not be allowed to go, with a son in the army,” he laments.
So what do these three officers think of Pakistan going to war in the future? They reply in unison, “We are now a nuclear power. Besides, there are so many internal threats.” I ask them the question which most insular Pakistanis harbour in their hearts: would they be willing to kill others of their faith in a war? Danish replies, “Of course, we will or else we will be killed. Even our mothers will not ask us why we fired, they will just be glad that we survived.”
Both Danish and Anil don’t nurture lofty ambitions, hoping to negotiate one step at a time in the army. What about Singh? “Well, I have set my sight on wearing red pips, that is become a brigadier,” he says. When I tell him that army rules don’t debar him from the rank of Chief of Army Staff, his eyes glitter and a smile lights up his face.
Posted by Dr. Manzer Durrani in Defense on February 21st, 2012
Pakistan and US have a love-hate relationship. US in its new found love for chicanery riddled India had started growling at Pakistan. But, over 60 years of trust between Pentagon and GHQ, cannot be ignored. Trust is like blood, it is thicker than water. Despite, its policy tilt towards India, US is well aware of Indian back-stabbing and double dealing. As they say in US, they knew where their bread is buttered. In Pakistani colloqialism, US is not a Phuddho Phatta. On the other hand, Pakistanis have felt a deep sense of anger and betrayal by the US. The killing of our 24 young lions cannot be forgotten or covered by such gestures. This gesture will be appreciated and will go a long way to repair the tattered relationship. However, let us not dance till the fat lady sings. Pakistan needs to see more of such gestures, including release of all items in FMS pipeline, especially, the F16 D Fighter jets. Pakistani people starve but pay for these weaponary with hard cash. This brings jobs to US workers suffering almost 10-11 percent unemployment. So, this gesture will be win-win for both the nations.
ISLAMABAD — The Pakistani navy took delivery Tuesday of two state-of-the-art, US-made surveillance aircraft nine months after Islamist militants destroyed two similar planes, officials said.
Pakistan said the P3C aircraft, modified with the latest avionics, are designed to improve surveillance in the North Arabian sea, one of the world’s most important shipping routes deeply troubled by Somali piracy.
“The two aircraft have been delivered to the Pakistan navy. These aircraft have been provided under the foreign military funding programme,” a spokesman for the US embassy in Islamabad, told AFP.
Relations between Pakistan and the United States were severely damaged last year by a covert American raid that killed Osama bin Laden and air strikes that killed 24 Pakistani soldiers, and the alliance remains tense.
The navy said the aircraft would help “maintain requisite vigil in our vital area of interest in the North Arabian Sea”, which it said was “home to intense maritime activity both legal and illegal and thus warrants continuous guard”.
Pakistan is to receive six P3C aircraft from the United States in three batches. The first two, received in 2010, were destroyed during a 17-hour siege of a key naval base in Karachi last May blamed on the Taliban.
The attack killed 10 personnel and deeply embarrassed the military, just three weeks after bin Laden was killed in the garrison town of Abbottabad.
Posted by Dr. Manzer Durrani in Defense on February 20th, 2012
Akula II Russian Submarine
“The persistence of unresolved regional conflicts makes nuclear weapons a powerful lure in many parts of the world—to intimidate neighbours and to serve as a deterrent to great powers who might otherwise intervene in a regional conflict.” Henry Kissinger
Whenever any country acquires some ambitious role, be its own or playing proxy to some bigger power like the USA; it changes the dynamics of the region. Till the late 70s, India solely focused on Pakistan but thereafter it was prompted up by the USA to counter China. Whatever India acquires under this pretext would be free to use against Pakistan. To meet the threats, Pakistan is acquiring what it needs for an effective deterrence.
In May 1998, India exploded nukes thereafter, India’s language and tone changed immediately. Vajpai began to threaten Pakistan, some of the words still echo in our ears but within days, Pakistan demonstrated her nuclear capability that was superior to that of India. It brought a gloom over the Indian sky.
This initiative brought US sanctions against Pakistan that she faced with determination to overcome the difficult times.
One of the fundamental objectives of the US to move into Afghanistan was to isolate Pakistan from China and take out her nukes. To that end all sorts of pressures have been applied on Pakistan to destabilise her in every possible way. This has been no easy time; every day brought new threats that Pakistan had to face. Internally through media manipulation and political pawns, the public perception against Pakistan Army took new dimensions. Here some mismanagement by the army leadership cannot be ruled out. This perception became very dangerous; a gulf had been created between the public and the army that had to be bridged. To overcome this perception, army leadership went very cautious and it did succeed.
Then post 9/11 America showed a major tilt towards India, declared her as a strategic ally and treaties signed to that effect. Pakistan was declared as the frontline state to counter so called terrorism where Pakistan was made to suffer heavily through her economy, human loses and political destabilisation. India was not only given lucrative contracts but also was provided room to establish herself in Afghanistan.
During this period, besides civilian nuclear technology, India was also offered massive defence hardware including fighter aircraft and strategic air transporters. Taking advantage of the situation, India extended its reach and dominance even beyond the region.
Recently, Obama announced the new US policy to contain China that resulted in a shift from Atlantic to Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean known as the Pacific Club. This club has the US, UK, Australia and other NATO members where India has also been given a role. Only time would tell if India remains a committed member of the Pacific Club but through this club it will acquire what it needs to dominate the region and work on its expansionist agenda – Hindutwa Manifesto.
India on the pretext of Chinese threat core philosophy of dominating the Indian Ocean to dominate the world is spending on her military muscle that is very threatening for the region, more so for Pakistan with which it has open and declared hostility. Under this doctrine, the major shift has come in her naval fleet where it has acquired nuclear submarines to extend its reach and dominance not only over the region but to some extent in the global context.
Pakistan Navy has never been adverse to the situation or the new developments taking place, she kept augmenting her fleet through up-gradations and modifications. Some are known but most are kept as operational secrets.
The development of nuclear weapons and its delivery systems were effectively integrated within the Pakistan Navy; even without nuclear submarines, Pakistan Navy has developed sub-surface nuclear strike capability that can engage targets both on sea and land. In spite of this, to maintain an edge, the need to acquire nuclear submarines cannot be ruled out for its obvious strategic advantages.
In the 60s, India had only one aircraft carrier, Vikrant an old vintage that could not pose any threat to Pakistan both in 1965 and 1971 wars; instead it was a liability for the Indian navy to hide and protect it from a smaller but more aggressive Pakistan Navy. In 1965 war, Pakistan Navy was the only navy in the region that had submarine capability that was utilised effectively. In 1971 war though India had acquired Russian Foxtrot class submarines but did not play any role of significance. Now with the new developments, Pakistan Navy is making all efforts to maintain her over half a century dominance of the sea.
After the collapse of Soviet Union, it was an opportunity for India that it acquired INS Vikramaditya that is expected sometimes this year. Indian navy that has INS Viraat is decommissioning it after the induction of the first domestically built Vikrant class aircraft carrier.
Besides acquisition of the aircraft carriers, Indian navy has also acquired nuclear powered submarines; the first of Akula II Class has already been handed over to the Indian Navy to augment its fleet of 14 diesel electric powered submarines (4 Shishumar and 10 Sindhugosh class submarines) and a dozen midgets known as chariots.
Indian navy as mentioned by Commander M Azam Khan in his article S-2 Options For Pakistan launched INS Arihant SSBN, ATV based on Kilo class Russian submarines. An indigenous effort that is currently undergoing trials is said to be facing some problems with its reactor.
Nuclear submarines have glaring advantages over conventional diesel electric powered that are as follows:
Akula class nuclear submarine is officially deemed Project 971 Shuka B designed as follow-up to Victor and Sierra classes to set a new standard in stealth operations and serve as the vanguard of the modern Russian Navy. Some analysts opine that Akula is superior to American Los Angeles class (that was US Navy’s hallmark) but not being disclosed by the Russians.
Like the shark, this Russian machine is a deadly killer that needs very little reaction time. According to the available information, it attains underwater speed of 35 knots or more and can sit at 500 meters below water.
Its weapons configuration is formidable that it can singularly take on multiple targets without being located. It carries a mix of nuclear and conventional weapons. But her weaponry is only meant for sea warfare and not hitting the land targets. If modified, it can also launch nuclear attack on land based targets.
Agosta 90-B PNS Saad
Pakistan that has a total compliment of 7 submarines comprising of Agosta 70s and 90s, would not only be outnumbered but also put on the back foot. In conventional weaponry, French and Germans are leading builders of submarines; by opting for French Agostas, Pakistan had maintained her parity over others in the region that is now threatened with the induction of Akula II nuclear submarines.
A diesel-electrical submarine has to surface to periscope depth to recharge the batteries using the diesel engine, leading to increased risk of detection. The MESMA air-independent propulsion system, being fitted to the Agosta 90B submarines for Pakistan, allows the submarine to remain submerged three times longer.
The MESMA system consists essentially of a turbine receiving high-pressure steam from a combustion chamber, burning a gaseous mixture of ethanol and liquid oxygen. The Agosta 90B’s dimensions remain the same in all other respects, except that the length increases from 67m to 76m and submerged displacement from 1,760t to 2,050t.
In future conflicts, it is very likely that even Israel would also conduct a covert operation in tandem with India to take out Pakistan’s nukes; an opportunity that it has always been looking for in the past.
Therefore the options of the bigger powers become the compulsion of the smaller countries that find themselves in catch 22 situation but with calculated measures, such adverse situations can always be averted. Pakistan defence forces have such a history to back them up.
On this, S M Hali conducted a lively debate in his weekly episode of Defence & Diplomacy with Vice Admiral Ahmed Tasnim and Advocate Tariq Peerzada.
*Quoted by Commander M Azam Khan in his article S 2 Options for Pakistan
© 2025, All Rights Reserved by Pakistan Think Tank.
