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Archive for May, 2012

Operation Deception: One of the best kept secret of the 1971 war was the fact that India laid out an elaborate deception game

 HOSHIAR KHABARDAAR

 


Pakistanis must watch-out! The current honey and sugar atmosphere of Aman ki Asha between “Trojan Horse GEO” and Times of India and the Burger Crowd of Pakistan is a clear and present danger to the security of Pakistan.  

For Who deceives me once, God forgive him; if twice, God forgive him; but if thrice, God forgive him, but not me, because I could not beware.

[1611 Tarlton’s Jests (1844) 11]

He that deceives me once, it is his faul[t]; if twice, it is mine.

[1659 N. R. Proverbs English, French, Dutch, Italian & Spanish 54]

An old saying? He that deceives me once, shame fall on him; if he deceives me twice, shame fall on me.’

1971 : Vignettes from the Past

Operation Deception

Ref

 
One of the best kept secret of the 1971 war was the fact that India laid out an elaborate deception game to beguile the enemy into believing that its war aim was to merely help the Mukti Bahini liberate Khulna, Chittagong and a few other districts, from where the independent Bangladesh movement would continue. 
Inspired leaks to the international media hinted that India would help the Mukti Bahini create a liberated zone in East Pakistan and be satisfied with it. 
However, when the war really began in December, many cantonments including Chittagong was simply bypassed. The orders had come that Dhaka, and only Dhaka would be the target. The order to  troops was to bypass towns, use subsidiary tracks and head straight for Dhaka.
The Pakistani army, consequently never realised that in 14 days time, Indian troops along with Muktis would be at Dhaka’s doorsteps. 
Indians and the Mukti Bahini  needed to be in Dhaka fast, before the United Nations acted and declared a ceasefire, before China could manouvere troops to intervene on behalf of  Pakistan.

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INDIAN BRAHMANIC DECEPTION ;PAKISTAN’S SUPERIOR BALLISTIC MISSILE ARSENAL

UQAAB COMMENTARY: Hindu Warfare Strategy and Tactics are based on subterfuge and deception, as enunciated by Chanakiya.  Lull the enemy (Pakistan) to think that its ballistic missile technology is better than its own. But quietly and under the global media’s radar, continue to build the Indian Military arsenal at a lightning pace.  Indians make loud noises globally via Indian media and non-resident Indians or expatriates, about the great advances of Pakistan’s  nuclear weapons and ballistic missile technology. But, in a stealth mode, India is is developing Agni series ballistic missiles with ranges not only to hit China, but also to threaten the US mainland US, if there is a falling-out in the current US-India romance. India also wants to curry favor with the United States as a counterfoil to China. But, in reality, India has global ambitions. It wants to replace, the former Soviet Union as a Global Power. The following paper from an Indian Think Tank (1), South Asia Analysis Group Illustrates the deceptive brouhaha about Pakistan’s Defensive Missile Program:

 

PAKISTAN’S BALLISTIC MISSILE ARSENALDevelopment and Acquisition Philosophy

 

The decade of the 1990s witnessed the dramatic emergence of Pakistan’s nuclear weaponisation programme that had begun in 1960’s. It would have been logical to expect that a missile delivery programme for its nuclear weapons would be conducted concurrently. However, the outlines of an integrated Pakistani missile development plan began to appear only in the 1980s, though experimentation with sound ranging rockets had begun in the earlier decade.

Pakistan’s missile programme is termed as dramatic because in a short span commencing in 1991 this country has demonstrated the development of a long range potent missile arsenal with nuclear warhead capabilities. When measured against Pakistan’s technological expertise, industrial infrastructure and hi-tech R&D capabilities, it becomes obvious that Pakistan’s missile arsenal has come into being with total external assistance and aid.

Strategically, at the turn of the millennium, Pakistan can justifiably boast that not only has it offset India’s overwhelming conventional superiority by its nuclear weaponisation , but also has outstripped India’s missile development programmes which have proceeded slowly both due to domestic and external restraints.

Pakistan Missile Development /Acquisition Programme – The Stimulus

Multiple stimuli existed for Pakistan to go into over-drive for an accelerated missile development and acquisition programme. The decade of the 1990’s could better be termed as a ‘Pakistan missile acquisition decade’ rather than a development one. There were more acquisitions than development.

Pakistan was impelled by the following stimuli, when contemporary developments are analysed:

* Pakistan had achieved nuclear weapons capability by 1987, but its only means of delivery were aircraft, basically the US-F16s.

* United States embargo on F-16 deliveries as a result of Pressler Amendment rendered Pakistan’s nuclear weapons capability vulnerable.

* Ballistic missiles had emerged as more potently destructive weapons and cost-effective options by 1990-91. This was evident from the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s, the war in Afghanistan and the Gulf War.

* China, by, now had emerged as a source of ready supply of ballistic missiles for the Islamic world.

* Pakistan’s strategic nexus with China enabled an easy and assured access for build-up of Pakistan’s missile arsenal as it was for Pakistan’s nuclear weaponisation with Chinese help.

The stage was thus propitiously set for build -up of Pakistan’s missile arsenal. Unlike its struggle to acquire wherewithal for nuclear weapons production, Pakistan faced no problem in missile acquisition or production.

 

Pakistan’s Missile Development and Acquisition Philosophy

Strategically, Pakistan was aware that in terms of a missile build-up, it was running against time. Pakistan had nuclear weapons, but with aircraft delivery capability only. Aircraft had limitations both in terms of range of delivery of nuclear weapons and so also penetration of India’s air-defence systems. Pakistan was also sensitive to the indigenous development of India’s integrated missile development programme. India’s programme was slow but potent and threatening for Pakistan.

Pakistan’s missile build-up philosophy, therefore, differed markedly from India’s. Analysis of events, indicate that Pakistan’s missile build-up philosophy was grounded on the following guidelines:

* Speed was the uppermost imperative in terms of build-up of Pakistan’s missile arsenal

* Direct off- the- shelf acquisition of missiles for Pak arsenal was Priority I requirement .

* Indigenous Pakistani missile development programme was Priority II. Or, at best , to proceed concurrently.

* The indigenous Pakistani missile development and production programme should not waste time on indigenous R&D. It should follow a dual-track path:

Track I

Assembly of imported missiles in Pakistan from what at best could be termed as SKDs (semi knocked down) kits and CKDs (completely knocked down) kits.

Track II

Indigenous fabrication of above missiles sub-systems and propellants in a graduated manner. Track I would enable a quantitative jump in indigenous Pakistan’s missile production expertise.

The above philosophy finds reflection in Pakistan’s missile arsenal, both in terms of composition and capabilities.

 

Pakistan’s Missile Arsenal: Composition and Capabilities

Pakistan’s missile arsenal when discussed in the media or in academic publications tends to get listed as one long list. Further, Pakistan’s deception measures in relation to its missile arsenal tends to confuse analysts by giving HATF serial numbers to subsequent developments. This is aimed at both for passing off latest acquisitions as indigenous and confounding analysts.

For a more orderly analysis of Pakistan’s missile arsenal and also in terms of range, propulsions systems and capabilities the Pakistani arsenal needs to be viewed in the following groupings:

* HATF series

* GHAURI series

* SHAHEEN series

* M-11 (direct imports from China)

The following table lists capabilities and characteristics

PAKISTAN’S MISSILE ARSENAL: Composition,Capabilities and Characteristics

Missile Year of Testing/
Acquisition
Range in km Warhead Weight in Kg

Propulsion
Stages Propellant

Origin Deploy-
ment
Status

HATF1

1989

80

500

Single          Solid

Indigenous

O

HATF 1A 1992 100 500 Single          Solid Indigenous

O

HATF II 1989 300 500 Two             Solid PRC (M11) D
HATF III 1997 600-800 500

Two             Solid

PRC D
GHAURI I 1998 1500 500-750 Single        Liquid DPRK/PRC T
GHAURI II 1999 1500-2300 700 Two           Liquid DPRK/PRC T
SHAHEEN I 1999 750 1000 Two             Solid PRC (M 9) T
SHAHEEN II 2000 2500 1000 Two             Solid PRC T
M-11 1991-1998 300 500-800 Two             Solid PRC S

Notes:
1.  Deployment Status: D =Development    O = Operational      S= Storage   T- Tested
2. HATF II  is said to be an indigenous version of China M-11 missile.
3. GHAURI  series are reported to be direct acquisitions from DPRK, off-the-shelf, but given Pakistani names.  PRC facilitated this.  Indigenous versions of GHAURI when fabricated would hold Chinese command and control systems.
4. GHAURI II  has inputs from China’s CSS-2 and also from Saudi Arabia.
5. SHAHEEN I  is reported to be the Pakistani version of M-9 (China) 

The groupings of Pakistani missile arsenal analysed thus also finds reflection in terms of distribution of development and fabrication within Pakistan, which is as follows:

Missile Series Propellant Pakistan Development/Fabrication Scientists
HATF Solid SUPARCO (Initially) Now likely NDC
GHAURI Liquid AQ Khan Research Lab Kahuta Dr. AQ Khan
SHAHEEN Solid PAEC National Defence Complex (NDC) Fathehganj Prof. Samar Mubarak Mund

In terms of analysis of missiles by ranges as per international classification standards the Pakistani missiles can be categorised as under:

SRBM– HATF series, SHAHEEN 1 and M-11

MRBM– GHAURI series

IRBM – SHAHEEN II

Note: In terms of US classification system both GHAURI and SHAHEEN series are IRBMs

Thus Pakistan in a short span has been able to buildup its missile targeting capabilities to IRBM ranges.

Pakistan’s Missile Targeting Strategy

Pakistani missile targeting strategies can be analysed from the above groupings in terms of ranges and characteristics. From a deductive analysis, the targeting strategy in terms of the different series appears to be as under. (See Map)

PakMissile.jpg (116330 bytes)

Note:
1. All ranges shown are maximum ranges claimed by Pakistan
2. Pakistan long range missiles cover all of India’s metropolitan cities.
3. Pakistan’s main strategic interest is likely to be Mumbai and Peninsular India in which lie most of India’s sensitive installations and infrastructure.

HATF Series – HATF series formed the initial component of the Pakistani missile arsenal. It was also planned as a counter to India’s Prithvi missile. Besides the nuclear capability of HATF II and III, in the conventional mode it was designed as an offensive weapon to knock off Indian armour concentrations. In the defensive mode, it would be used in dual roles to destroy Indian bridge-heads in Pakistani territory . Its chief use could be said to be along Pakistani borders with India, both inside and outside.

GHAURI series – With its extended range, the GHAURI series could effectively reach virtually the whole of India but it seems that the strategic targeting of this missile would be more towards Mumbai and Peninsular India in which lie India’s most sensitive installations. GHAURI is a mobile system and could be used for counter-value-strikes. Pakistan claims that GHAURI can carry nuclear, chemical and anti-tank warheads.

SHAHEEN series – SHAHEEN II unveiled on Pakistan Day Parade this year (March 23,2000) is Pakistan’s answer to India’s Agni II. It has as an all India coverage, but can be said to have Mumbai and Peninsular India as the main target. With its ground mobility and solid state propellant systems it should logically form the backbone of Pakistani nuclear deterrent. With mobility comes survivability and therefore the SHAHEEN II could impart to Pakistan a second strike capability in the future.

The above is a broad analysis of Pakistani’s missile targeting strategy. Detailed analysis is outside the scope of this paper. Suffice it to say, that other than large scale population centres of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar in North India heartland there are no lucrative or counter- value targets for Pakistan. In the past analysts have carried out checks on the Indian Muslim population concentrations in North India and came to the conclusion that because of high proportion of Indian Muslim population in these urban centres, Pakistan would be unlikely to target them. However in a recent interview on BBC, General Pervez Musharraf, the military ruler of Pakistan, when questioned on this aspect, first hesitated to answer and when pressed by the British interviewer stated to the effect that nothing is precluded, if Pakistan’s supreme national interests are in jeopardy i.e. Indian Muslims are dispensable

 

Future Perspectives

In terms of future perspectives , the following can be said about Pakistan’s missile build-up:

* Pakistan’s missile force would form the main delivery system for its nuclear weapons.

* Pakistan’s emphasis on a “credible minimum deterrent” would call for matching responses to India’s missile developments in terms of ranges and payloads. This would imply that the GHAURI and SHAHEEN series would receive priorities in terms of range and payload modifications.

* Pakistani SRBMs and MRBMs priorities would be more to build up numbers to withstand both conventional and nuclear attrition.

* In terms of ICBM capability, Pakistan would definitely aspire for it, but a host of factors are stacked against her. Even China, Pakistan’s nuclear weapons and missiles benefactor would hesitate to impart ICBM capability to Pakistan, for strategic reasons.

Despite the dismal state of Pakistan’s economy, her nuclear weapons and missiles build-up programmes have never stood impeded. China for strategic reasons and oil-rich Middle East countries for Islamic solidarity reasons have provided the wherewithal and finances. Substantial amounts of drug money also stands ploughed into these programmes by the Pakistani military.

In terms of future perspectives, it can be said that Pakistan’s missile build-up would continue unabated.

 

Conclusion

Pakistan’s missile build-up all along has been India-centric. Unlike India, which has to take the China threat into consideration, Pakistan has the luxury to focus its entire missile build-up on Indian developments.

Strategically, Pakistan has today not only offset India’s overwhelming conventional military superiority by its nuclear weaponisation but also acquired a missile force which in terms of speed of acquisition outstrips India’s pace of development of missiles. China prominently and DPRK by proxy have significantly contributed to Pakistan’s missile build-up. China has even provided a complete plant in 1995 to produce M-11 nuclear capable M-11 missiles and their variants in Pakistan. China has persistently defied international non-proliferation norms and US pressures against Chinese proliferation of WMD’s in Pakistan. No indicators are available to suggest that China would desist in future too. China’s South Asian policy objective to strategically de-stabilise India would continue unabated, despite protestations to the contrary.

India has no political or military options to limit Pakistan’s nuclear weaponisation and missile build-up. Pakistan can only be limited by India imposing an economically unaffordable counter-buildup in these fields- uneconomical for Pakistan and her benefactors too. Needless to say that this is an imperative if peace and stability have to prevail in South Asia.

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Pakistan successfully test fires Hatf III (Ghaznavi)

RAWALPINDI, (SANA): Pakistan has successfully conducted the training launch of Short Range Ballistic Missile Hatf III (Ghaznavi).

According to an ISPR press release, the missile can carry nuyclear and conventional warheads to a range of 290 kilometers. The launch was conducted at the conclusion of the annual field training exercise of Army Strategic Force Command. The exercise was aimed at testing the operational readiness of a Strategic Missile Group.

The field exercise of the ASFC was witnessed by the Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee General Khalid Shameem Wynne, Director General Strategic Plans Division Lieutenant General Khalid Ahmed Kidwai (R), Commander Army Strategic Force Command Lieutenant General Tariq Nadeem Gilani, Commander Karachi Corps Lieutenant General Muhammad Ijaz Chaudhry, Chairman NESCOM Mr Muhammad Irfan Burney, and other senior military officials and scientists.

Addressing the troops in the exercise area, General Wynne commended the troops on displaying a high standard of proficiency in handling and operating the state-of-the-art weapon system.

He said, “The nation has developed a strong nuclear deterrence capability and expects that the officers and men entrusted with the task of deterring aggression would continue to train hard and maintain professional excellence.”

General Wynne said that Pakistan’s armed forces were fully capable of safeguarding Pakistan’s security against aggression.

The successful test was also appreciated by President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani, who congratulated the participating ASFC troops, the scientists and the engineers on their success.

Two weeks ago Pakistan test-fired an intermediate range ballistic missile, seen as a response to India’s launch of its new long-range Agni V, capable of hitting targets anywhere in China.

Defence analysts say India’s strategic priorities are moving away from Pakistan to focus more on China, while Pakistan is still worried about its old foe.
Ends-SANA-ZS

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CONVICTED NARCO GILANI WANTS 60 MILLION PAKISTANIS TO LEAVE THE COUNTRY. HE SAID IT, WE DID NOT!

In his interview with a British reporter shown in the attached video: Gilani says, “if one third Pakistanis (about 60 million), who want to leave Pakistan, they should leave. How can Pakistanis elect this  foot in the mouth  nincompoop, as a PM in the first place. 

Narco Gilani is a guest of the ex-colonialist British government effort to thumb there noses at Pakistani nation. This ex-convict is being given the protocol of a Prime Ministerni nation by the British goverment to put salt into the wounds of Pakistani nation. This is the same nation which has given to the number one killer of Karachi Altaf Hussain and his coterie, and the numerous waderas and brutal Sardars of Balochistan, including Shahzain Marri and Bramdagh Bugti.  These are the pups of Bugti and Marri, who went to school in the WaderaShahi College in Lahore, otherwise known as Aitchison College. The amoebic progeny of blood sucking Jagirdars of Pakistan call this college their alma mater.  Such mockeries of two-tiered education system exists through Pakistan separates the “halves,” from the “halve-nots.”  These blemishes of colonial era discriminatory educational still eats at egalitarian education for all stratas of societies.  The have  made it more palatable by selecting a handful of inner city kids and giving them admission.  It is a classic case of tokenism. Pakistan has not come out of the darkness of an occupied colonial nation. It is now governed by “Kala Sahibs,” instead of “Gora Sahibs.” Convicted Narco Gilani and his Don, the Money-Lauderer Mr.Ten Percent are classic but hideous dinosaurs of Pakistan’s colonial past. Our unfortunate nation is still praying to wake -up from this nightmare.  

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PTT ARCHIVE:China, Pak in MoU to develop stealth variant on JF-17 Thunder

Pakistan & China’s JF-17 Fighter Program

Archive Article

 

FC-1/ JF-17, armed

FC-1/ JF-17, armed
(click to view full)

The JF-17 is a joint Chinese-Pakistani project that aimed to reduce Pakistan’s dependence on western firms for advanced fighters, by fielding a low-cost multi-role lightweight fighter that would host modern electronics, and represent a step up from its Chinese MiG-19/21 derivatives, and French Mirage fighters. This positioning addresses a market that the West once dominated, but has nearly abandoned in recent decades.

China has made no decisions yet for the PLAAF, but Pakistan has signed an agreement for the first 42 operational JF-17 aircraft, and is reportedly seeking additional agreements with Western firms for avionics and weapons upgrades. India’s competing Tejas fighter is overcoming project delays by looking to foreign component sources, but Pakistan and China remain out front with their offering. The 2 countries have set up a joint JF-17 marketing agency to promote export sales, and their offering has received initial interest.

  • The JF-17 Thunder, aka. FC-1 Fierce Dragon

 

JF-17 IDEAS08

JF-17 at IDEAS 2008
(click to view full)

The JF-17/FC-1 is a sub-$20 million fighter designed as a co-operative venture between Pakistan and China to replace Chinese A-5C (massively modified MiG-19), F-7P (MiG-21+), and French Mirage 3/5 aircraft in Pakistan’s fleet. China also has options to produce them, but has made no firm decisions and seems unenthusiastic. It’s a comparable peer for India’s still-under-development LCA Tejas, Taiwan’s F-CK-1 Ching Kuo fighters, and South Korea’s F/A-50 Golden Eagle supersonic trainer & light fighter.

The design itself is fairly conventional, resembling a somewhat boxy F-20. A drag chute can be installed at the base of the rudder, in order to make landings easier and shorter. Power will be provided by the RD-93 derivative of the MiG-29’s RD-33, giving the aircraft an engine that is reliable and widely used, but known to leave smoke trails. Future models may see the engine replaced with China’s WS-13, an RD-93 copy with some modifications. Avionics involve a modern “glass” cockpit of digital screens, using Chinese technologies, commercial processors, and reports that software coding was done in the commercial C++ language rather than a military language like Ada.

Conflicting reports exist regarding its databuses: MIL-STD-1553, or the more advanced MIL-STD-1760. That will affect its range of usable weapons, and GPS-guided weapons in particular require the -1760 databus.

Its multi-mode radar is also somewhat less than clear. China’s KLJ-7 mechanically-scanned array, or the derivative KLJ-10 that equips China’s J-10/FC-20 fighters, are now the most likely, despite media references to a deal with Thales, or to the Selex Galileo’s Grifo – which already equips Pakistan’s F-7s (Grifo-7), and some of its Mirage III/Vs (Grifo M3/M5). Selex Galileo’s own materials [PDF] describe the Grifo S7 as “The version selected for the JF-17 aircraft”, but multiple reports in November 2010 indicate that its radar will be Chinese instead.

JF-17 weapons

Farnborough array
(click to view entire)

Fixed weapons include a GSh-23 dual-barrel 23mm cannon, which can be upgraded to a GSh-30 dual-30mm cannon at a weight and ammunition penalty. Up to 3,700 kg/ 8,150 pounds of payload can be carried on its centerline station, plus 2 underwing and 1 wingtip pylons on each wing. The aircraft will reportedly be qualified to take AIM-9P Sidewinder or Chinese PL-7/8/9 short range air-to-air missiles on the wingtip rails and underwing. China’s PL-12/SD-10 missiles have been confirmed as its medium range aerial weapon.

At present, the main questions concerning Pakistan’s JF-17s revolve around integrated sensors and weapons, rather than the aircraft itself or its performance. The Farnborough 2010 display showed Chinese air-air missiles, a LeiShi-6 guided glide bomb, China’s C802 anti-ship missile, and even a laser designator pod. Full status as a recognized multirole fighter, however, must wait until their the ability to use precision laser guidance and/or GPS-guided ground attack weapons is confirmed.

JF-17/FC-1: The Program

AIR_F-16A_Pakistan_Bombing.jpg

PAF F-16A drops Mk.82s
(click to view full)

Sino Defense reminds us that the JF-17/FC-1 ‘Xiaolong’ has a long history. The site recalls that China signed a $550 million agreement with Grumman in 1986 to modernise its J-7 fighter (MiG-21 copy) under the “Super-7” upgrade project, with US and British firms competing to provide the engine and avionics. The project was canceled after the Tienanmen Square massacre, but Chengdu Aircraft Industry Corporation managed to continue the program with its own resources, and the project was eventually re-branded as FC-1 (Fighter China-1).

The next big step forward for FC-1 came when the USA imposed military export sanctions in response to Pakistan’s nuclear program, and to Chinese-Pakistani transfers of ballistic missile components. With spares for its top-of-the-line F-16s in question, and additional F-16s removed as an option, Pakistan sought help from its Chinese ally.

A joint development and production agreement was signed in June 1999, with China Aviation Import and Export Corporation (CATIC) and Pakistan each contributing 50% of the estimated $150 million in development costs. The design was finalized in 2001, with initial prototype flights beginning in 2003. A JF-17 did not fly with its full avionics suite until 2006, but testing and development appear to have progressed smoothly. Until political complications intervened.

Unfortunately for India, the engine export understanding that they thought they had with Russia, was reversed by Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin. JF-17 production began in 2009.

AIR_J-7E.jpg

Chinese J-7E
(click to view full)

Ultimately, Pakistan intends to induct 150-250 JF-17s into its air force, replacing most of its Mirage III/Vs, F-7s (Chinese MiG-21 copies), and A-5Cs (massively modified Chinese MiG-19 derivatives). The A-5s will retire more or less immediately as JF-17s enter service, and the Mirages are next in line for replacement due to their uncertain spares situation. The number of JF-17s requested could rise, and some reports place potential Pakistani orders as high as 300 aircraft. Even at the JF-17’s bargain price, however, Pakistan’s budgets will be hard-pressed to afford that many. In the short term, even reaching the desired goal of 150 JF-17s could prove challenging without external aid.

China has remained on the fence regarding the program, with no PLAAF orders to date. Their air force appears to be more focused on their 4+ generation J-10 design, which offers more advanced capabilities and aerodynamics. The FC-1 remains a candidate to replace large numbers of PLAAF MiG-17s (J-5) and MiG-19s (J-6/ Q-5), if the PLAAF decides it needs to take steps to maintain the size of its force. If not, the FC-1’s role is likely to resemble the Northrop F-5’s. The USA sold them in large numbers to other countries, even as the USAF equipped itself with larger and more expensive designs instead.

Stuck in Sichuan: The Saga

Klimov

The Pakistan Government had hoped to sign a deal to acquire 150 JF-17/FC-1 fighters in 2007, with 8 aircraft in service by year’s end. China had reportedly even bought 100 Klimov RD-93 engines from Russia for installing on JF-17s, with an option to contract for another 400 engines.

In January 2007, however, Forecast International reported that Russia had refused permission for the transfer of its RD-93 engines, derived from the RD-33 that equips the MiG-29. According to FI the decision came only a few days after a visit to India by Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Sergei Ivanov, during which a number of joint defense projects were discussed and agreements were signed. These include the MRTA transport aircraft, and reportedly a “5th generation fighter” project, even as the MiG-29OVT/MiG-35 is touted as the likely winner of the multi-billion MRCA fighter contract. January 2007, DID:

“The military world has no shortage of irony. The defense industry has its moments too, as Pakistan just discovered. An aircraft whose development was driven by military sanctions from the US and Europe is now derailed by military sanctions [regarding its engines]. This leaves the Pakistani Air Force dependent on an alternative from… America. Meanwhile, the Chinese are left with no export launch customer for a plane they may now have to reluctantly buy themselves, instead of the favoured and more capable J-10. Somewhere in Delhi, champagne is pouring – but first, a bit of background.”

Coincidence? Didn’t look like it. Replacement with another engine? Unless it’s a very close copy, that requires re-work of the entire fighter design and takes years. Just ask the Chinese J-10 project team.

As it turned out, however, that wasn’t necessary. The arms market also features no shortage of change, and Russia eventually chose not prevent re-export of the RD-93 engines, in an announcement that caught even India’s diplomats by surprise. The RD-93 comes with some disadvantages, including a tendency to leave smoke trails, but tacit re-export approval removed a huge potential roadblock and let the program proceed more or less on schedule.

Updates and Key Events

PL-12 on JF-17

PL-12 & PL-8 on JF-17
(click to view entire)

 

Nov 14/11: A Pakistani JF-17 crashes in the mountainous Attock Distrct, killing Squadron Leader Muhammad Hussain. He had ejected successfully, but his parachute failed to open properly. Pak Tribune.

 

May 19/11: Shortly after American special forces killed Osama Bin Laden in a unilateral raid 40 miles from Islamabad, Pakistan announces a wide swath of major defense projects with China. The most consequential is that the deep water port of Gwadar in western Pakistan will be run by its paymasters, the Chinese government. Pakistan also wants the Chinese to build a naval base there, and no doubt expects to have its own ships use that facility alongside the Chinese PLAN.

The flashiest aspect of the announcements involve the JF-17, with reports that China will be sending Pakistan 50 improved JF-17 fighters, with upgraded electronics. To date, JF-17s have rolled off of Pakistani manufacturing/finishing lines, but these will reportedly involve more Chinese manufacturing to speed delivery, arriving within 6 months. Reports say that China is financing the deal, though they differ on the terms, and how much of the cost China is absorbing. Some reports paint the fighters as more or less a gift.

The interest in a batch of 50 more JF-17s isn’t a surprise, nor are the planned improvements (vid. Dec 22/10 entry). If deliveries do complete in that time frame, the end of 2011 will see Pakistan with over 92 serving JF-17s. India’s comparable Tejas will have over a year to go before the 1st squadron is formally inducted, and will still be waiting to conduct qualification tests of key weapons. DAWNDAWN re: expediting | Kakuda HafizTribune || India’s NDTVEconomic Times || Wall St. Journal.

Q-5

Chinese A-5/Q-5
(click to view full)

April 12/11: PAF No. 16 Squadron at PAFB Peshawar becomes the 2nd operational squadron with the CAIC-PAC JF-17 Thunder.

The ceremony also marks the retirement of the PAF’s A-5C Fantans, a heavily modified derivative of the MiG-19. The Panthers of 16 Sqn. were the 1st PAF squadron to covert to the A-5C in 1983, and the last to operate the type. AirForces Monthly.

March 1/11: Aviation Week reports that Pakistan is in negotiations with the U.S. to get more Lockheed Martin F-16s, but also quotes PAF Air Chief Marshall Rao Qamar Suleman as saying that indigenous projects will remain a priority. As part of that effort, Pakistan intends to eventually field a supplementary datalink, which would work alongside the Link 16 systems carried by the F-16s and communicate with the JF-17 fleet. With respect to the JF-17s:

“Rao says Pakistan will have the second squadron of JF-17s enter operation at the end of March while simultaneously phasing out all of its Nanchang A-5s…. “As for the Chengdu F-7s and Dassault Mirages, we will phase these out as we get JF-17s,” Rao says. “Some of Pakistan’s Mirages are the oldest in the world,” he says, adding that some were built in 1967. Phasing out the older Mirages is a top priority. The Mirages are difficult and costly to maintain because no one is producing spare parts for these aircraft anymore, he says. “We are getting secondhand parts, but we don’t know the history of these spare parts we are getting. It’s a flight safety issue and a nightmare for me,” he adds.”

Jan 26/11: JF-17s for Iraq? Government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh tells a press conference that the Council of Ministers has approved the purchase of 18 F-16s, and budgeted an unspecified sum. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki who is also the acting Defense Minister, would negotiate the deal’s final parameters. There has been talk of a $13 billion weapons buy, which would include the existing DSCA request for F-16IQs, but no confirmation as yet.

The USA will reportedly deliver the F-16s to Iraq within 2-3 years, but in the meantime, and even for some time thereafter, Iraq will not be able to police its own airspace effectively. Iraq Order of Battle author DJ Elliott believes that 2018 would be the earliest. The French are presenting a complementary offer of upgraded Mirage F1s, and DJ Elliott reports that the Iraqis may also be looking at a 3rd option: China & Pakistan’s JF-17 Thunder. Iraq-Business News |DJ Elliott’s Montrose ToastUPI | Saudi Arab News re: Iraqi readiness.

Dec 22/10: Aviation Week reports that about half of the 42 JF-17s Pakistan has ordered are now in place, and one squadron is operational. PAF officials now plan to set up a 2nd unit. The focus, as is true in all initial inductions, is on getting all staff familiar with the equipment. Fully qualifying crews for air-to-air and air-to-ground missions will be the next step.

PAF Air Commodore Junaid told the magazine that the government hopes to order a second batch of 50 fighters in 2011, with undefined “enhanced features,” though the avionics package fielded on the baseline JF-17 has reportedly been a positive surprises.

 

Nov 18/10: Reports from Pakistan indicate that the PAF’s JF-17s will be equipped with Chinese radars and SD-10A/PL-12 medium range air-to-air missiles, thanks to a recent contract with China.

The Thales/MBDA ATE consortium had been seen as front runners for a $1.2 billion contract to equip the first 50 Pakistani JF-17s with radars and missiles, and could stand to reap another EUR 15 million or so per plane thereafter. In April 2010, however, Le Monde reported that the French government had refused to clear the deal. That’s not surprising, since France has a $4+ billion contract to build submarines for India, is competing in the $10-11 billion M-MRCA fighter competition, and wants to sell equipment like frigates and missiles in future. France isn’t in the same geo-political position as the USA, which means retaliation for a defense sale of that magnitude is more likely. France’s DCNS still won India’s Scorpene submarine contract, despite building Agosta AIP submarines for Pakistan, but the French government evidently decided not to chance it this time.

PAF Chief Air Marshal Rao Qamar Suleman told The Nation in an exclusive interview that “PAF has no plans to install Western devices and weapons on the aircraft for the time being.” Pakistan’s The Nation || Agence France Presse | India’s Hindustan Times | Russia’s RIA Novosti | India’s Sify.

July 5/10: India isn’t the only party with reservations about Russian engine exports for the JF-17. United Aircraft Corp. CEO Mikhail Pogosyan publicly opposes the sale of 100 RD-93 jet engines to China, citing the threat of FC-1/JF-17 competition against the MiG-29. He says that said the re-export of technologies should be approved by the original manufacturers to avoid unfair competition, but Rosoboronexports position is that re-export rights is a government decision with no manufacturer input. RIA Novosti adds that:

“A Russian aircraft industry source said the FC-1 is inferior to MiG-29 in performance, but sells for about $10 million, while the price of a MiG-29 is about $35 mln. MiG-29s are currently competing with FC-1s in an Egyptian tender on the delivery of 32 fighters. In addition, Egypt has launched negotiations with Pakistan on the licensed production of FC-1 aircraft. Russian Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation (FSMTC) approved the re-export of RD-93 engines to Egypt as part of the FC-1 fighter package in November 2007.”

Feb 18/10: The first squadron of JF-17 Thunder aircraft is formally indicted into Pakistan’s Air Force by Chief of the Air Staff Air Chief Marshal Rao Qamar Suleman. DAWN.

AIR FC-1 JF-17 Below

Lift-off?
(click to view full)

Dec 23/09: Myanmar (ex-Burma) reportedly buys 20 MiG-29s from Russia, preferring them over Chinese options that are said to have included the JF-17/ FC-1. Read “More MiG-29s for Myanmar.”

Nov 23/09: The first JF-17 Thunder built at the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) at Kamra rolls out. The rest of the order is expected to undergo final assembly at by PAC Kamra within the next 3 years.Associated Press of PakistanDAWNPakistan’s Daily Times | Pakistan’s The NationPakistan TimesSANA News || Chandigarh TribunePress Trust of IndiaChina’s Xinhua.

March 7/09: The Associated Press of Pakistan reports that a contract for 42 co-produced JF-17s has been signed in Islamabad by China’s CATIC and the Pakistani Air Force, financed by “seller’s credit.” Production capacity is listed at 15 aircraft in the first year, rising to 30 aircraft per year thereafter.

Pakistan has been flying 8 aircraft to work out tactics, techniques, and procedures, and expects to stand up the first JF-17 squadron before the end of 2009. The aircraft will be based at Peshawar, alongside existing Chinese-made Q-5/A-5C “Fantan” fighters that are a hugely modified Chinese derivative of the MiG-19, and their accompanying JJ-6/FT-6 MiG-19 trainers.

The article adds a quote from Air Chief Marshal Tanvir Mehmood Ahmed. He reiterated that cooperation on China’s canard-winged J-10/FC-20 is also progressing, with first deliveries to Pakistan expected in 2014-15. CATIC’s President MA Zhiping reportedly added that the first FC-20 aircraft built under that agreement would fly in 2009. APP | Pakistan’s The News.

Jan 1/09: Associated Press of Pakistan quotes Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) chairman Air Marshal Khalid Chaudhry HI (M) T Bt re: the JF-17 project, and PAC’s work more generally. The report was triggered by briefings associated with a visit from Sheikh Aftab Ahmad, head of the Standing Committee of the National Assembly on Defence Production. Air Marshal Chadhry reportedly said that PAC has the capability to manufacture 75% of the JF-17’s avionics, and 58% of its air frame.

The firm is currently deepening its experience and earning revenue by overhauling about 180 aircraft engines and 60 aircraft per year, including work undertaken by PAC’s Mirage rebuild factory that helps maintain Pakistan’s aged Mirage III/V fighters, and refurbishes scrap Mirages from other countries in order to keep overall fleet numbers up. High-tech avionics machinery recently imported “from various developed countries” is extending PACs capacity, and so has a $15 million contract from Boeing for aircraft parts.

Nov 28/08: Pakistani Ministry of Defence Production Secretary Shahid Siddiq Tirmizi claims that as many as 8 countries have shown interest in buying the JF-17 Thunder fighter. Azerbaijan, Sudan, and Zimbabwe are 3 countries that have been linked to export interest in the past. The News International.

A Pakistan Defense article widens that potential field to include Algeria, Bangladesh, Egypt, Iran, Lebanon, Malaysia, Morocco, Myanmar, Nigeria, and Sri Lanka.

Nov 20/08: Pakistani Chief of Air Staff ACM Tanvir Mahmood Ahmad says that aid the first JF-17 squadron would be inducted into the PAF fleet in the first quarter of 2009.

His accompanying announcement that another 36 high-tech combat aircraft (FC-20, probably a version of China’s J-10) would be inducted into the PAF fleet by 2010 got more attention, however. Pakistan DailyPak Tribune.

April 11/08: Jane’s Defence Weekly reports that:

“Pakistan and China have established a joint marketing organisation to promote international sales of their JF-17 ‘Thunder’ fighter aircraft, the head of the main Pakistani arms export agency has told Jane’s. Major General Muhammad Farooq, director general of Pakistan’s Defence Export Promotion Organisation (DEPO), described the JF-17 in early April as an ideal “choice for countries which are mindful of their finances.”

March 19/08: An article in Pakistan Defence claims that the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) now has 8 JF-17 Thunder aircraft, after 6 more planes were received this March. All 8 will be used for testing testing and evaluation; the aircraft hasn’t been formally inducted into service yet.

Serial production has begun, and Pakistan’s Air Cheif Marshal reportedly said that about 60% of the airframe and 80% of the avionics would be manufactured in Pakistan by 2010, with production capacity rising to 25 aircraft per year by 2011. If true, it seems likely that deals with significant industrial offsets may be in the cards, as the article also claims that negotiations have begun with British, Italian, and French defense firms over potential avionics and other systems; France has reportedly offered its RC-400 radar and MBDA MICA missile.

Finally, the article claims that that:

“Thirteen countries have so far expressed interest in purchasing the JF-17 aircraft are Azerbaijan, Zimbabwe, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Egypt, Iran, Lebanon, Malaysia, Morocco, Nigeria, Sri Lanka, Algeria and Sudan.”

Jan 22/08: According to India Defence, Pakistan’s national TV reports that it has begun in-country manufacturing of the JF-17 fighter. About half of the on-board equipment and avionics will be manufactured in Kamra, Pakistan, with the rest coming from China.

PakAF Chief of Air Staff Ahmed reportedly committed to 15 aircraft built in 2008 and 20 in 2009, with the goal of building 25-30 per year.

AIR_FC-1_JF-17_Runway.jpg

FC-1/ JF-17
(click to view full)

Nov 29/07: The IWPA reports that:

“Azerbaijan is currently negotiating with Pakistan for the purchase of 24 Chinese-made JF-17 Thunder combat planes, worth between 16 and 18 million dollars each.”

In February 2009, however, Azerbaijan’s APA files a report that says the parties are still in talks, rather than under contract.

Nov 13/07: Jane’s Defense Weekly quotes Pakistani Chief of Air Staff, Air Chief Marshal Tanvir Mahmood Ahmed as saying that the Pakistan Air Force will have an operational capability with JF-17 Thunder light fighter aircraft by the end of 2008, and expects to have its first 8 aircraft under a “small batch order” within the next few months.

“Speaking to Jane’s at the Dubai Air Show on 12 November, ACM Ahmed dismissed concerns over the Russian RD-93 engine that powers the joint Sino-Pakistan aircraft as “an issue created from here and there.”

April 26/07: India may need to hold that champagne, in the wake of recent reports. India Defence relays a report from the Russian newspaper Kommersant, which said that Vladimir Putin himself had personally supervised and signed a “Sino-Russian Fighter Assembly Agreement” which included joint assembly of JF-17 fighter aircraft with RD-93 engines, and their supply to third countries. Kommersant added that:

“This permission will enable the supply of 150 Chinese JF-17 fighter aircrafts to Pakistan, and help implement the contract for the supply of Russian engines worth USD 238 million.”

Kommersant added that “the permission does not imply Pakistan’s inclusion in the list of countries with which Russia has direct military-technical cooperation.” The question is whether Russian military-technical cooperation would be required under the Sino-Russian agreement. Meanwhile, the Indians appear to have been blindsided. The Press Counsellor of the Indian Embassy in Moscow Ramesh Chandra told Kommersant that “the Embassy was not aware” of the permission for re-export. See India DefenceIndia’s domain-b.

March 29/07: Pakistan’s The News International references an interview that Air Chief Marshal Tanvir Mehmood Ahmed gves to Jane’s:

“The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) aims to acquire 200-250 JF-17 Thunder (FC-1) fighter aircraft in place of the 150 originally envisaged, Air Chief Marshal Tanvir Mehmood Ahmed has said…. According to Jane’s Russian sources had initially said emphatically, that the RD-93 engines… could not be re-exported to Pakistan. This position was reversed in November 2006… during a joint [Klimov/ Chengdu] press briefing at the Zhuhai Air Show in China…. Pakistani sources claim they have a clear understanding from Chinese authorities that there will be no Russian effort to block the supply of the RD-93 engines to Pakistan. “The Chinese have told us the Russians haven’t issued a written licence but the Russians will not block the supply of the RD-93 to Pakistan,” one senior Pakistani government official told Jane’s.”

March 2/07: China delivers a pair of JF-17 fighters equipped with Russian-made RD-93 engines to Pakistan, prompting Indian protests that claim a violation of the end-user agreement between Russia and China. The aircraft were officially presented on March 12/07, and made their first public appearance during the Pakistan Day Parade on March 23/07. Scramble.

April 28/06: PT-04 makes its first flight with fully operational avionics. Source.

April 2004: Second prototype flies, though some sources contend that the aircraft in question was PT-03 instead. A total of 4 aircraft were manufactured for flight testing, while PT-05 was designed for static fatigue testing on the ground. APPWikipedia.

Aug 25/03: First prototype aircraft flies. Source.

July 1/03: First prototype completes first taxi trials. Source.

May 13/03: First prototype aircraft rolled out. Source.

September 2001: The FC-1/JF-17’s detailed design is finalized. Source.

1999: China and Pakistan agreed on 50-50 joint development of the FC-1/Super 7.

Additional Readings

China, Pak in MoU to develop stealth variant on JF-17 Thunder

Farnborough, Jul 19 (PTI):

China and Pakistan have reportedly signed a memorandum of understanding to develop a stealth version of a light-weight fighter aircraft being jointly produced by them to match MiG-21 warplane, a work horse of the Indian Air Force.

JF-17 Thunder, also known as FC-1, being jointly built by Kamra-based Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) and Chengdu Aerospace Company (CAC) today made its first appearance at an international air show having flown in here after making refueling stops in Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

The plane, which has been in development in one form or another since 1991, is a symbol of cooperation between China and Pakistan and the first assembled version brought out by the Kamra plant, delivered in November last year, according to ‘Show News,’ a special issue of defence journal Aviation Week for the Farnborough Air Show.

“The two (countries) have also reportedly signed a memorandum of understanding to develop a stealth variant of the JF-17 Thunder,” it said.

The journal said that Pakistan Air Force (PAK) is expected to acquire around 250 JF-17s, but this may be a split of 100 in the JF-17 configuration, being displayed at the air show here, and 150 of the stealth multi-role combat aircraft (MCRA) between 2015 and 2025.

The plane is powered by a Russian-built Klimov RD-93 engine — a specialised single-engine fighter variant of the Mig 29’s RS-33 powerplant. The first prototype of the warplane flew in 2003 and the first two Chinese-made versions were handed over to the PAF in March 2007.

Show organisers said that the two JF-17 fighter planes will not fly as part of the air show. “The aircraft has not completed its full release to service in Pakistan,” the journal said, quoting a member of the flight control committee.

“Although that full release is only month away, the PAF is also today in what is for them new territory. Farnborough is their very first event of this kind ever,” it said.

  • Klimov – RD-33 Family. Of which the RD-93 engine is one.
  • Selex Galileo – Products: Radar and Sonics. The firm is a Finmeccanica subsidiary. While their material has said in the past that their Grifo radar family would equip the JF-17, that role now seems to have gone to the Chinese.

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