Change in Bangladesh Perplexes India

by

Brig Gen(Retd) Asif Haroon Raja

The student uprising against the quota system in Dhaka in July 2024 morphed into a countrywide protest movement within weeks and led to the departure of Hasina Wajid. Since the sudden regime change, the Indian political and military leaders, Indian media, academia and RAW are in a state of acute anxiety, bordering depression.

India has suffered two major strategic setbacks this year. The first was BJP’s loss of political power in the June 2024 elections. A bigger jolt came in August when the strongest and most trusted ally Bangladesh (BD) went out of India’s hands because of the sudden fall and exit of Hasina Wajid.

She had ruled BD with an iron hand from 2009 to the first week of Aug this year at a stretch and had established a One-party rule. 

India under the Modi and Hasina regimes had forged strategic partnership and had also linked the two countries with two railway lines. Both worked on the anti-Pakistan agenda in unison.

When Pakistan came on the world map on 14 Aug 1947, the Indian leaders chortled that it will repent its decision and will not survive longer than six months and would beg for reunion. Some said it was a big mistake of Mr. Jinnah. Nothing of the sort happened. 

India planned to avenge the vivisection of India by cutting Pakistan into two parts. To achieve this objective, East Pakistan was chosen because of its extreme vulnerability.

After the Indian victory in 1971, Indira Gandhi arrogantly stated that the Two-Nation theory was drowned in the Bay of Bengal. East Pakistan was separated through subversion, treachery, and by outnumbering and outgunning a small force of the Pak Army.

This disfigurement of Two-Nation theory survived for about 54 years, during which BD was made into a vassal state of India and the minds of the people of BD were further filled with hatred against Pakistan.

The myths, notions and fake narratives spread by India and BD against Pakistan , suddenly unravelled this month. BD under an interim regime headed by Dr. M. Yunis is in the saddle, which is anti-India, pro-Pakistan, and is pro-people. It is keen to carry out extensive reforms to refurbish electoral laws, judiciary, police and the civil administration. The govt has full backing of the army.

The current younger generation of BD has come out of the magic spell of India after coming to know that their elders were duped and betrayed by India. They view Sheikh Mujibur Rehman as a traitor and the 1971 insurgency followed by aggression by Indian forces as immoral acts. 

They have realised that if the Awami League (AL) and the Mukti Bahini had not changed sides, the Indian military despite its huge superiority in men and material, could never have defeated the Pakistani forces and the Ansars.

All the fabricated stories of massacre and rapes of the Bengalis fanned after 1971, painting Pak Army soldiers as human eating monsters and rapists, and India as the benign helper, have fallen flat and evaporated in thin air. Lies have no feet to stand on and truth is the ultimate victor. 

Hatred against India has been piling up among the younger generation due to excessive interference of RAW and Indian officials in the internal affairs of BD after 2014, Modi’s anti-Muslim and racist policies, the minorities specific Citizenship Law, gruesome atrocities against the Muslim Kashmiris, and Hasina’s cruelties against her political opponents at the behest of India, and her servitude to India. 

Their level of anger can be gauged from destruction of all the monuments and pictorials of Sheikh Mujib, ransacking of 1971 memorials and surrender ceremony portraits, ransacking properties of  AL parliamentarians, pro-govt judges and prosperous Hindu community, which had played a key role in subverting the minds of the students from 1947 to 1971 and post 1971 period. 

This sort of fury was unleashed in Aug 1975 against the creator of BD Sheikh Mujib, and now in Aug 2024 against his daughter Sheikh Hasina. Both times the targets were AL and remnants of Mukti Bahni. 

Piled up hatred for India can be judged from the emotions of the people, who are blaming India for flooding their country deliberately and causing big damages to the properties and crops, and loss of lives. 

The majority of Bangladeshis and the interim regime are inclined towards Pakistan and are keen to reestablish the old bondage. 

For all practical purposes, Hasina has met her Waterloo and she can never return to resume politics in BD. She was lucky to be rescued by the army. The AL will remain a pariah party for a long time.

The undercurrent trends in BD do not bode well for India. All its investments in billions since 1947 have gone to waste. It is incurring a loss of 18 million dollars in trade daily. It will face the refugee influx of Hindu Bengalis. If the Indian govt stops them, it will face the wrath of its people. In BD, they will lead an insecure life.

The Hindu Bengali community in BD, AL and grandchildren of 1971war veterans would face tough times. The persecuted Biharis, Jamaat Islami and BNP would enjoy greater freedom and liberty of action. The Rohingyas and the Biharis languishing in sordid camps would get some reprieve. 

Interaction of BD with the freedom fighters of seven sisters in NE India is likely to increase covertly. Prior to the Draconian rule of Hasina, the two military rulers and BNP under Khaleda Zia were friendly towards Pakistan and the intelligence agencies of the two countries cooperated with each other. 

BJP under Modi has been cut to size and it no longer wields absolute power. Its chief patron USA is itself in trouble. India’s chief rival China, is poised to become the leading economic power and the future super power.

For India, Hasina’s exit is a major strategic loss and it could jeopardise her strategic interests in South Asia. Both had forged deep-rooted economic, defence and security ties. Hasina’s regime had helped India in suppressing Insurgencies in northeastern states of India by refusing asylum to the ULFA leader Anup Chetia and deporting them to India. Water and land disputes had been resolved and India had a big hand in upturning the economic fortunes of BD.

A new era has begun in which BD will be closer to China, Nepal, Myanmar, Maldives, Sri Lanka and Pakistan, and it will distance itself from overbearing India. If so, it will cause regional turbulence in South Asia.

India’s immediate concerns are the safety and security of the Hindu community in BD and RAW and Indian officials residing in BD. The other is how to offset the trade losses and how to get closer to the new interim regime. The other worry is the changed perceptions of the youth in BD about India and Pakistan and their affections for the latter. 

The trend of leaning towards China, which had already begun during Hasina’s rule, is another cause of anxiety. 

Security of insurgency prone seven states in the northeast and the highly vulnerable Siliguri corridor, which can be exploited by China through Sikkim will be the biggest security concern. 

It is an established fact that India has excelled in the art of diplomacy and has been winning new friends including the friends of its arch rival Pakistan. It has been drawing huge material benefits from the western and eastern camps. 

India has been able to cultivate the IEA regime in Afghanistan in spite of its deep animus spread over decades. 

Indian leadership must have holistically calculated that the era of Hasina and AL is over and that it will have to reconcile with the new interim regime in its immediate neighborhood. 

India must have already stepped up its efforts to win over the Yunis regime and to retain its influence in BD. It is a strategic compulsion for India to befriend BD. Major hindrance is the fascism of ruling BJP and India’s penchant for interfering in neighbouring countries.

Giving asylum to Hasina by India can become a bottleneck for restoration of friendly relationship with BD. Perforce, India will have to get rid of her. 

Unless the Indian leadership ends its fascist, racist, militarist and megalomaniac policies, it could suffer more reverses in the coming future. 

The changed environment in BD has given a window of opportunity to Pakistan to mend its ties and get closer to it. Pakistan’s diplomacy is now under test. PM Shahbaz Sharif was quick to extend his anguish to BD over the loss of lives and properties in the flash floods, and offered support. Letting the BD cricket team win the test match by ten wickets on home ground, home pitch and home crowd could be just a beginning. 

The writer is Retd Brig, war veteran, defence, security & political analyst, author of five books, patron-in-chief CDS Think Tank, ex-Chairman TFP Think Tank, Director Measac Research Centre, Administrator Fact Check Think Tank, takes part in TV talk shows.