Geopolitics of Peace is an Endeavour by Brig.(Retd) Nadir Mir

2012 onwards, the world is on the brink of Third World War. All sane and peace loving men would pray and strive that it is averted. For the horoscope of the times point towards a global catastrophe in the making. The guns of August 1914 – 1st World War paled in front of the Panzer Blitzkrieg of September 1939 Second World War. The Third World War during Cold War was averted between NATO and Warsaw Pact Forces. If war breaks out in 2012 onwards, Nukes shall speak and tragically billions may die. If there is war, it will most likely spread to be global plus nuclear, and without method in the madness. This apocalyptic scenario may yet come to pass, unless it is stopped in its tracks.

Opposing Alliances. US globalists (left over Neocons, Military – Industrial complex and their ilk) led NATO still want to dominate the world (despite their disaster in Iraq – Afghanistan). It is not only that the Western World’s global dominance stands challenged, but the march of history may be reversed. From the 1500’s (seafaring age) scientific discoveries, industrialization, political revolutions, colonialism, and technology ascendency, the world has been controlled by western powers. British Empire, Napoleon’s France, Hitler’s Germany and more recently USA have all been part of the Western world’s bid for global hegemony or control. Now the west is really in decline. USA the great power, land of mass production faces economic stagnation if not full decline. EU faces its own economic predicament. Some Europeans and Americans find the idea of a powerful Germany leading Europe (a natural process) as unacceptable so far. Two World Wars were fought among other reasons to prevent Germany from its rightful place under the sun. An Intra European conflict may be brewing for leadership of Europe. Even as US – NATO alliance conflicts with the dialectic alliance Russia – China.

US Geo strategy has been embroiled in Afghanistan and Iraq, but now seeks to extend the war to Iran – Pakistan. Of course the real war is against Russia – China, the opposing alliance. Washington sees China rising (US trying to contain it from Pacific to Indian Ocean) Russia resurgent, Islamic world defiant (with Arab Spring likely to turn Anti west,) Israel endangered, besides Western economic decline.

American politics for 2012 and the Presidential Elections are upping the war ante (forcing President Obama to strike Iran or support Israel in doing so) or risk losing his reelection. Delhi seeks US Power to denuke, balkanize, deIslamize Pakistan, before US departure from Afghanistan region. Israel is straining on the leash before Iran develops the Nuclear Arsenal. This will change the strategic balance followed by Nuclear Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt etc.

In Afghanistan US seeks to retain a (25000 strong force) SOF/Air Force for denuclearization of Iran – Pakistan. It may seek independence of Baluchistan (with Indian support.) A clash with Pakistan is likely though not inevitable. Delhi wants to use American Power to fight Pakistan (but absurdly believes it can escape the nuclear conflagration). The war with Iran is even nearer 2012. US – NATO may attack Iran followed by Pakistan or both together. An Israeli attack on Iran is even more likely and Indian attack on Pakistan (Cold Start) always remains a possibility.

Russia – China are Allies against US – NATO Geo strategy (Iran and Pakistan are joining this alliance but also the Battle Space.) China is rising economically, Russia is resurgent strategically. After Iraq, Afghanistan, they have seen Libya humbled by NATO power. The US –NATO model  of regime change by sponsoring local militants – Northern Alliance in Afghanistan, in Libya (NATO trained anti Gaddafi Rebels), Syria (Syrian Rebels plus ex Libyan Rebels ) In Iran (non Persian ethnic groups, anti regime Diaspora ) in Pakistan (instead of regime change, keeping pliant puppets in power, or sponsoring  Baluch rebels against Pakistan.) In Russia, President Putin himself has accused the US of instigating opponents of United Russia. In China, using India for fermenting trouble in Xinjiang, Tibet etc. All this is unifying the alliance of Heart land powers Russia –China and critical Rim land state actors Iran – Pakistan into an Anti US – NATO alliance. But events are moving too fast. The Mayan Prophesy of 2012 catastrophic year approaches. US – NATO-India clash with Pakistan or US – NATO- Israel clash with Iran will lead by default or design to multi regional war going Global.

The combined Geopolitical space of Pakistan – Afghanistan –Iran – Iraq (backed by) Russia – China is beyond the US – NATO reach (It has already over reached) Putin’s reported warning to his generals, ‘Prepare for Armageddon’, must   be taken seriously.Putin is a great leader in the tradition of Russian History. China has already alerted its Navy in the Pacific. North Korea can always do the unpredictable, more so now with the young Kim in power!

US – NATO war against Iran could be catastrophic, but against Pakistan it could be dooms day! US – NATO may have Turkish/Saudi support against Syria but in Pakistan’s case both Saudi Arabia – Turkey will support Pakistan. In fact War against Pakistan is very complicated plus suicidal!

Firstly Pakistan is neither threatening nor attacking anybody. It is on high moral ground, despite US – propaganda on militants to nuke insecurity!

Secondly Pakistan will be defended by its Soldiers and People. (190 million despite US – Indian attempts to divide them on different lines).

Thirdly Pakistan will defend itself at any level – sub conventional (asymmetrical), conventional (armed forces) above conventional (nuclear –WMD)

Fourthly There will be no foreign inspired civil war in Pakistan. Pakistanis are united to defend the mother land. Even militants are on the wane or will fight foreign invaders. A few Baluch rebels are being instigated by Delhi – Neocons. (The Baluch should be appeased by Islamabad). All major and minor political parties and people want an end to the Afghan War and peace in Pakistan.

Fifthly Iran, China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Russia will support Pakistan even for different Geopolitical reasons.

Sixthly A low intensity war in Geopolitical black hole of Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, Iraq will defeat US – NATO (with war weary public, declining economy at home). A perfect catastrophe! A conventional war, more so on two fronts for Pakistan (US – NATO strike in the west, and Indian Cold Start in the east) will quickly reach nuclear threshold. If Pakistan is being destroyed by enemy fire power plus nukes it will strike back into India and attacking forces / region. Loose nukes from a destroyed Pakistan could explode in Israel – western cities leading to a nuclear retaliation chain cycle. The war going Global, nuclear destructive and radioactive. The Russian view that attack on Pakistan with lead to Thermonuclear War was in this context.

A war the US led NATO cannot win. With hundreds of millions or billions dead only a sick, demented man could term it as a victory. The real winner of the Second World War was USA whose homeland was untouched, and rose to become the sole super power. If there are any victors, it would be Russia – China unless the war involves them directly (something which the globalists hope to achieve – lure Russia – China by attacking Iran).

The Arab Spring – Muslim World would revolt in Anti Americanism as war with Iran – Pakistan and carnage becomes apparent. The western homeland and initiators of attack will be burnt by the flames they help ignite themselves (albeit radioactive fires).

It is near midnight. Geopolitics of Peace is the solution. The US – NATO must relent on Afghanistan, of course no war with Iran and no interference in Baluchistan. The alternative is too horrible to contemplate.

Besides the innocent people of Iran and Pakistan, the cultured people in Europe and good hearted, charity giving, amiable folks in USA are being duped by their Neocons and hawks plus globalists. Shocked when the bastion of capitalism, Wall Street came under siege and fearing rapid collapse, war abroad is their illogical choice. Even in Israel, half the population is against the coming war. Over all the good Jewish people, with their historical sense of survival seek peace and security. Pakistan is not anti Semitic at all, but has deep sympathy with people in Palestine. Still peace in the Middle East would be welcome to all. The American globalists however are adamant to drive the American Titanic into the global iceberg. But this war will be self defeating for all.

A new paradigm shift is needed, rather than beating the drums of war. Moscow under President Putin has a great role to deter the American war hawks, aided by the peace loving Chinese. The Germans and other anti war Europeans, besides the good people of USA must join hands to abort this global conflagration. Russia’s key role in global peace, security for Israel, no attack on Iran, establishment of Palestine State, US – NATO exodus from Afghanistan, no interference in Baluchistan, return of Kashmir to Pakistan, US – China amity, all have to be part of Geopolitical peacemaking and war avoidance.

The alternative global nuclear war is too apocalyptic to contemplate.

About the Author 

On the Brink of Third World War—2012

Nadir Mir 

Author of the book “Gwadar on the Global Chessboard”

Blog: Pakistan and Geopolitics wwwpakistangeopolitics.blogspot.com/

The author is a retired Brigadier of the Pakistan Army.

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In recent days, rhetoric of war has escalated between USA and Iran. The US naval warship USS Lincoln is said to be moving towards Persian Gulf. America has also accelerated the work on development of a 13.6 tonne Massive Ordnance Penetrator bomb, which is capable of destroying the underground nuclear facilities of Iran. The efforts to isolate Iran & cripple its economy have been on for years. Notwithstanding the sanctions & embargoes imposed by the West, Iran has sustained and expanded its nuclear program. While Iran has repeatedly insisted that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, the US claims that Tehran is clandestinely involved in developing nuclear weapons which would pose threat to the global security.

Tensions between the US & Iran reached to new levels recently when Iranian President Mahmhoud Ahmadinejad launched indigenously produced enriched uranium fuel rods in Tehran. He also announced the setting up of four more nuclear reactors. This is seen as Iran’s way of showing to the West that it has advanced its nuclear program based on indigenously developed technology. After this technological feat achieved by Tehran, the US has once against called upon the international community to severe its ties with Iran. But Ahmadinejad is apparently unfazed. He announced, “Some 6,000 centrifuges were operating (in Natanz facility), 3,000 new ones have been added – bringing the total to 9,000.” Although he also assured that Iran would share this information with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) & comply with the IAEA safeguards. Daring the US, Ahmadinejad asserted, “The era of bullying nations has passed. The arrogant powers cannot monopolise nuclear technology. They tried to prevent us by issuing sanctions and resolutions but failed.” He also tried to convey that America is no more all powerful and if need arises, Iran can teach a lesson to it.

Iran’s nuclear program is not new. It dates back to 1960s. But after the Islamic Revolution of 1979, it had to be stopped. It was revived after 1990 and has progressed notwithstanding American sanctions. Washington accuses Tehran of clandestinely developing nuclear weapons in the garb of its nuclear program in violation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). But not all countries are ready to tow this American line on Iran. Its main reason is that the claims of the US regarding Saddam’s Iraq possessing Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) were found false and they acted just as an excuse to topple Saddam regime. Therefore, majority of the countries are not ready to believe America again on Iran issue. Moreover, it is well understood that Washington is just trying to secure Israel by circumscribing Iran’s increasing strength in the region.

In December, Iran shocked the world when it claimed to have landed an American drone which it said, was spying into Iranian airspace. Embarrassed Pentagon said that the drone crossed into Iranian airspace from Afghanistan owing to a technical snag. In latest revelation, Iran has said that it possesses six American drones, which it has landed by deploying Iranian communication technology. Iran has also announced that very soon it will exhibit those drones.

In January, an Iranian court issued a death sentence to an American of Iranian descent convicted on charges of spying for the Central Intelligence Agency. On January 11, an Iranian nuclear scientist died in a “terrorist bomb blast” in northern Tehran when an unidentified motorcyclist attached a magnetic explosive device to the scientist’s car. Iran once again indicated that it believed the United States and Israel were responsible for this killing.

Tensions escalated recently when Israeli officials blamed Iran for bomb attacks in the capitals of Georgia, India and Thailand targeted at Israeli Embassy personnel. Evidence suggests that the bombings were part of a single plot, for which Israel has blamed Iran. Iranian officials, however, have denied any involvement & instead accused Israel of conspiring these bombings. In fact, Israel also wants the US to attack Iran & destroy its nuclear establishments and in the process weaken its military. Washington is not only increasing international pressure on Iran through sanctions, but also encouraging domestic opposition against Ahmadinejad’s government within Iran. Washington expected New Delhi to stand with it on Iran issue. But taking a clear stand, India has politely rejected the American suggestion and instead called for a diplomatic route to break this deadlock. Big countries like Russia, China and India are apparently standing with Iran as far as the option of military action is concerned.

As American allies, countries like France, Spain, Italy, Greece, Netherlands & Portugal proposed to stop oil imports from Iran from July onwards. They estimated that Iran could be made to fall in line using such threats. But their policy seems to have boomeranged as Iran has decided to stop crude exports to these countries with immediate effect. By this step, Iran has tried to prove that it is strong enough economically and doesn’t care for any threats. This standoff between the West and Iran is a matter of serious concern in the times of global economic slowdown and a danger of looming recession. Many questions are striking people’s minds such as why Iran is refusing to bow down under American pressure? Does America consider Iran as another Iraq? Does Iran treat American threats as mere hollow rhetoric? Facts suggest that after America’s rout in Afghanistan, groups like Taliban have stopped fearing it. Its claim of Iraq possessing WMDs was found to be a sham. Added to this, economic slowdown has crippled Washington’s ability to get involved in other such needless wars. Perhaps this is the reason why Iran is openly challenging the American hegemony.

by

Why Iran is showing a nuclear brinkmanship in the background of severe sanctions and threat of an all-out attack from Israel or US or both?

Nobody in the West has the answer or at least they pretend they do not have the answer.  Remember the seventies, when Pakistan was on the same path and never announced their milestones (with the exception of renegade AQK’s one interview with Kuldip  Nayyar in early eighties ) but never showing  or telling anything  how many centrifuges they had installed each quarter or each year and how much enriched uranium they processed for military and non-military use. All there was speculations, some wild and sometimes educated guess work. Thanks to India they also helped in a way to belittle Pakistan capabilities even mocked their scientist capacity to develop nuclear weapons.

No country has ever volunteered nuclear information ever.

Iran, on the other hand, announces its progress and shows off its centrifuge facility production floor where Ahmadinejad under the glaring lights and television cameras opens the box of centrifuge rods to the utter amazement (or horror) of western viewers and discuss the details of Iran enrichment levels. He doesn’t conceal the fact that Iran has enriched uranium at levels of 5 % and 20 % (and who knows if they have already achieved 95%). Iran also discloses routinely (for western government consumption) how many new centrifuges it has in its possession and when they were assembled.

But more surprising is Ahmadinejad’s many declarations in last many years about precisely what Iran intends to develop, assemble and enrich, and when even where. This is a big propaganda blitz. One might ask why Iran is so public about its nuclear program. Why, for instance, it has not adopted Pakistan’s policy of nuclear ambiguity at least through its crucial stage of the enrichment development? The answer could be that Iran simply does not want to do so.

West (US) or Israel does not know for sure if Iran has decided whether to develop a nuclear weapon. But why hasn’t it decided? If it has no intention of producing such a weapon, then what’s all this brinkmanship about? And if Iran does really want to develop a nuclear weapon, why is it waiting? United States and Israel look at Iran through their own lenses and it is clear their “think tanks” write so much about Iran in excruciating details but still understand next to “nothing”  about Iran.. Why is that?

But if sanctions are truly crippling Iran’s decision-making process, then there’s no reason to attack its nuclear facilities. Keeping the sanctions in place permanently would be enough to deny Iran such an endeavor. The sanctions might even be lifted at some point, so long as the US threatens to reinstate them should Iran risk a change in policy.

Yet the answers to all these questions  is deeper than US or Israel thinks.  It’s hard not to acknowledge Iran’s diplomatic successes over the past decade. Thanks to America’s occupation of Iraq, Iran managed to come across as Iraq’s patron. It also functions as Syria’s strategic backer and via Hezbollah, it controls Lebanon’s domestic affairs. It invested considerable funds in Afghanistan, and has worked with Pakistan to get help on a wide range of nuclear affairs in return for gas pipeline project. It recently offered to help Egypt bolster its economy, should the United States decide to freeze aid to Cairo; and in Egypt, there is very vocal support for such a relationship with Iran.

Iran also maintains close relations with Turkey, Qatar and several North African countries.

And Iran does care about about an ally’s Sunni or secular character, either and is not motivated by the creation of Shi’ite coalitions or by Islamic revolutions. This is purely US and Israeli propaganda.  They are aware that Sunni states are wary of dealing with Shi’ites, and also that (Sunni) Islamic thinkers and leaders loathe the Shi’ite movement, which is regarded by many of them as outright apostasy. Iran’s calculations to project itself on the international scene are not spiritual; they are strategic and very rational in nature. Many observers, including the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Martin Dempsey in his interview with CNN is testimony of this fact.

Iran also is content with strengthening its regional status. Its major success involves the way it manipulates Western powers’ foreign policy with respect  to China and Russia. Iran stirs up disputes and diplomatic confusion between Israel and the United States, which opposes an attack on Iran. The irony is that no country or coalition from the West wants to put Iran to the test, particularly not at a time when the overriding goal (as it seems) is to engage in a nuclear dialogue with Iran.

In this way,  Iran has shown (in the short term) that it has no need for a nuclear bomb in a hurry. It has been enough for Iran to simply demonstrate its capacity to develop unconventional weapon. Such a capacity has transformed Iran into a regional superpower able to manipulate the positions of countries around the world. Iran isn’t in a hurry to cross the line between having the potential to manufacture a bomb and actually producing such a weapon. It might never cross that line. Why should it furnish the West with a pretext to attack or impose more sanctions against it? Even possessing few nuclear weapon Iran is not stupid to attack Israel

As things stand, Iran so far has achieved its goals without needing to stockpile nuclear bombs in its arsenal.Which is ideal, as far as Tehran is concerned. Iran has attained optimal deterrent power against Israel through its tough diplomacy and brinkmanship. The bottom line is: Tell your enemies what you’re capable of doing to them, should you choose to do so, and wait for them to embrace you. That was US policy with China in sixties and seventies and look where China is and where is America.? India was Soviet’s lackey for fifty years and today America has embraced India and opened the floodgates of technology and weapons to destabilize the whole region, isn’t it?