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Posted by Shahroz Bashir in Current Affairs, ISLAMOPHOBIA, Recent News, Saudi Arabia, The Great Game, Trump, Trump's Manipulations of Muslim World on May 25th, 2017
A lot has been said and speculated on about the “real” objectives of Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia. Seasoned veteran British journalist/analyst and Middle East expert Robert Fisk sees it as an attempt to create a Sunni-style NATO to curb the Iranian expansion, and his speculation is on the money, but in realistic terms, what can this visit and its “aftermath” achieve?
Despite the slump on crude oil prices over the last 2-3 years, the Saudis are not short on cash, despite the huge and growing deficit they are running. Their reserve cash is estimated to be a whopping three quarters of a trillion American dollars, and the unit “trillion” has been chosen here because it is the millions of the 21st Century and billions have become too small to consider.
That said, the Saudis have recently pledged nearly a third of their stash on “investments” with the USA. The first allotment came in the form of an undertaking to invest over 100 billion dollars in the American housing sector less than a fortnight ago, and upon Trump’s historic Riyadh visit, the Saudis signed an excess of 100 billion dollar arms deal contract. This is a total of an excess of 200 billion American dollars to be injected into the American economy. But on the scale of trillions again, this huge figure amounts to only a mere 1% of America’s staggering official 20 trillion dollar debt.
A drop in the ocean perhaps if taken into the context of the American economy and debt, but there is little doubt that this Saudi money will create jobs in the USA, and if President Trump is still sticking by the promise of creating jobs, he’s on the money with this one too.
Thus far, and nearly four months after his inauguration, it can safely be said that the most predictable thing about President Trump thus far has been his unpredictability. But with all of his eccentricities and swings, what was it that made him swing in favour of Al-Saud? It may not be very difficult to solve this puzzle if we look at the chain of events.
Surely, the USA has a lot of strategic interests in the area, and these interests are multi-faceted. Among other things, the USA wants to protect the long-term well being of Israel, curb the influence of Russia and Iran in the region, have a share in the decision making of the “War on Syria”, and last be not least, keep a tight control on Saudi oil and cash wealth.
One of Trump’s election promises was to get America’s allies to pay their way, and he was very vocal about the Saudis saying on a number of occasions that protecting Saudi Arabia was costing the USA more than it should be paying for. Those subtle “threats” sent a wave of shivers down the spines of Saudi royals, especially that they were already in deep trouble financially and also bogged down in a protracted and highly expensive war in Yemen that seems unwinnable.
Given that the Saudis believed that former President Obama has let them down and did not invade Syria after the alleged East Ghouta chemical attack of August 2013, the unknown and rather unstable Trump looked like a wild card and they braced for the worst.
Knowing that they are in deep trouble and need America more than ever, feeling extremely nervous about the Iran nuclear deal, the Saudis realized that the only option they have with Trump was to appease him; “but how?”, they wondered. But when they put two and two together, and listened to Trump’s statements about Saudi Arabia, the Saudis realized that they can and will appease him with money; a quarter of a trillion dollars and counting.
Taking the big fat cheque book out is not a modus operandi that is alien to the Saudi psyche, because the Saudis have learned to solve their problems with money. And now, they believe that they are forging a new era of military and strategic alliance with the United States, and paying for this privilege with hard cash.
What they do not know is that whilst they were dreaming big, thinking that they are on the verge of becoming a regional superpower to be reckoned with signing an alliance with America, Donald Trump was signing a business deal, a sales contract; nothing more and nothing less.
The way Trump sees this is a win-win situation. If the Saudis do manage to get the upper military hand and curb the Iranians, he would have reached this zenith not only without having to fight Iran, but also whilst being paid for it. On the other hand, if the Saudis take a gamble to go to war with Iran and lose, he would have received his quarter trillion in advance. So for Saudi Arabia to win or lose, the deal makes America a quarter of a trillion dollar richer; or rather a quarter of a trillion less in debt.
In reality however, what are the odds of Saudi Arabia winning an open war with Iran? Or will this war eventuate in the first place? Back to this question later on.
In a part of the world that is highly volatile, supplying a huge arsenal of highly lethal weapons to a regime that is known for its atrocities, war crimes, inciting regional tension and creating conflict is pouring oil on an already raging fire. Trump’s arms deal with the Saudis probably marks one of the lowest points in America’s history. If anything, after the historic American-Iranian nuclear deal, America was in a position to play the role of an arbitrator and try to get the Saudis and the Iranians to reconcile; coerce them if needed. Instead, Trump turned his attack on Jihadi terrorism by supplying more support to the core and centre of terrorism (Saudi Arabia) and signed a huge arms deal that will only lead to further and much deadlier escalations.
With seemingly very powerful Sunni/Shiite animosities resurfacing after many centuries of dormancy, the pro-American axis happens to be predominantly Sunni and the pro-Russian resistance axis is seen to be Shiite; though it is not as such in reality. That said, the strongest Sunni army in the region is undoubtedly Turkey’s, and Turkey could potentially play a key role in bolstering Fisk’s Sunni-”NATO”. However, the Kurdish issue is a bigger threat to Turkey than Iran has ever been, and Turkey will walk away from its Sunni brothers and “NATO” allies if they were to support Kurdish separatists and arm them; and the irony is that they are.
Without Turkey, a Sunni-”NATO” will be a toothless tiger, unless perhaps it receives enough support from Israel; a support America will not be prepared to offer. But apart from some possible airstrikes and intelligence sharing, how much support will Israel give if any at all? And how much will Putin will be able to weigh in with his clout to keep Netanyahu’s nose out of it? Last but not least, how will the leaders of a so-called Sunni-”NATO” be able to “sell” the idea of getting into an alliance with Israel with its Sunni populace base?
There is little doubt that the Saudis now feel that Trump has given them a carte blanche to attack Iran, and if they swallow the bait fully, they may be foolish enough to take the gamble. But first, they have to finish off Yemen, and then look back and think how they miscalculated when they planned the so-called “Operation Decisive Storm”, and which was meant to be a swift and successful operation. More than two years later, victory seems further than ever predicted all the while the Yemenis have been improving their missile manufacturing capabilities and have been able to hit targets in the capital Riyadh.
Whilst the Saudis were begging the Americans to sell them more advanced weapons to win the war in Yemen, the Yemenis were developing their own. But given that Saudis believe that all problems can be solved provided one is prepared to spend as much as needed, the bottom line for them will always be, “how much?”
The Saudis will not only have to re-evaluate the short-sighted military gamble they took in Yemen, but also the financial one. No one knows for certain what has thus far been the dollar cost that the Saudis had to cough up, but it is in the tens of billions of dollars. With a country that is currently running a near 90 billion dollar budget deficit and diminishing returns, to gamble one third of the national savings on a new war aimed at Iran is tantamount to both, military and financial suicide.
If a war against Iran is at all winnable by the Saudis, what will be the dollar cost?
If the budget ceiling was broken, just like that of Operation Decisive Storm, and if the Saudis realize that the over 100 billion odd dollars they “invested” to buy state-of-the-art weaponry from the USA was not enough, by how much will they be prepared to lift the cost ceiling? They will only need to break the ceiling 3-4 fold before they actually run out of cash reserves. Such a budget overblow is not unusual in wars, and Yemen and Syria are living proof for the Saudis to learn from; if they are capable of learning.
A war against Iran will perhaps be Al-Saud’s final gamble option, but unless the Saudi royals change their rhetoric and seek reconciliation with their Shiite neighbours, this war could well be Al-Saud’s only gamble option.
But the bottom line to any military action is military pragmatism. How can the Saudis think that they can invade and subdue Iran when they haven’t been able to subdue a starved and besieged Yemen? In the unlikely event that they will be able to serve Iran with a swift “shock-and-awe” strike and achieve prompt victory, what will add to their woes is Iran’s ability to close the Strait of Hormuz and to also hit oil production areas and ports. In simple terms, the Saudi war on Yemen is expensive enough, but a war with Iran will be much more expensive, and one that will cut off Saudi life-line; its income.
Do the Saudis believe that expensive imported hardware is going to give the military edge they need? “Knowing” Trump, he will likely wait till the Saudis are down on their knees begging and then extort them by hiking the price of an elusive “super weapon”, perhaps even an A-Bomb, that will tip the war in Saudi favour. But “knowing” the Saudis and Iranians, if the Saudis attack and start an all-out war on Iran, then this may indeed earn the name of decisive storm, but not on Saudi terms. Will Iran virtually walk into Saudi Arabia? Such a scenario cannot be overruled. More than likely however, America will continue to feed the fire for as long as the Saudi cow (female camel in this instance) can be milked and for as long as there is money to be had. For as long as the infamous Al-Saud are on the throne, the kingdom will continue to be run by the same old rules of arrogance that will not stop until that evil legacy is down and vanquished.
Posted by admin in Altaf "Bhai Ka Qatil"Hussain, Asif Zardari Crook Par Excellance, BILAWAL ZARDARI BAMBINO KINGS OF CORRUPTION, CORRUPTION OF SHAHBAZ SHARIF, Current Affairs, Economic Terrorists of Pakistan, ENERGY SCAMS OF NAWAZ SHARIF, KILLERS SHARIF BROTHERS & RANA SANAULLA, LEAD PAKISTANI COLUMNISTS &THINKERS, Recent News on February 1st, 2016
DUBAI: The operation in Karachi and Zarb-e-Azb are fast being pushed into the political arena similar to the battles gladiators fight to the last.
Otherwise the Rangers DG Major General Bilal Akbar would not have to say: “They would criticise Rangers, if according to them, the operation is going fast. And if they find the operation getting slow, they would accuse the Rangers of having a ‘setting’.
“Our setting is only with our mission. Our setting is only with the nation. Our setting is only with our motherland,” he had to clarify on Sunday. There can be no doubt about his mission and his goals but why this situation has arrived is the big question the Rangers, and their think tanks, will have to ponder and answer.
After arrest of Uzair Baloch and starting with the arrest of Dr Asim Hussain, the Rangers have issued numerous statements and reports and its leaders have made public appearances. Plainly speaking they had to go public to lobby and explain their mission. Again why was it needed?
The simple answer to all these questions is that Rangers are working in a highly complex situation where conflicts of interests and contradictions are countless and the entire structure is infested with untenable centres of power and influence and twisted realities.
The first is that a government, which should have been the main vehicle of carrying out this operation, aided by the Rangers, has positioned itself against the operation, fearing its own wings may get burned. So the momentum and fury, as well as its effectiveness, has been cut short dragging the pace.
Secondly, while operations were in full swing against collaborators, abettors and helpers of terrorists inside the political parties, these parties were allowed to operate and contest elections and use their political muscle to pressurise the Rangers. Who allows rivals to gain and display support in the middle of the battle.
This situation was not taken into account by the think tanks of the Rangers and the army authorities. A temporary stop, a moratorium, on politics was a must to provide the necessary space and cover to take out the dirty fish, both political and apolitical. That was not done before the operations were launched.
The key issue was that if cleansing inside the political parties had to be done, a neutral, objective, non-political and strong administrative cover must have been provided first. That was not done.
So now there is a visible mess and this situation has to be resolved sooner than later because the operation has to go on. Any reversal or slow-down will encourage terrorists and their supporters to hit back with a vengeance. No one can afford it.
Even now the federal government, the army leadership, the security agencies and the Sindh government must sit down and find a workable solution. The worst-case scenario could be that the army may be left with no option but to steamroll everyone to achieve the logical results of the operation, as stated repeatedly by Army Chief Gen Raheel in the early days of Zarb-e-Azb. That may not be liked by many.
Posted by admin in " RIAZ THE SHAITAN OF PAKISTAN, Asif Zardari Crook Par Excellance, BILAWAL ZARDARI BAMBINO KINGS OF CORRUPTION, Corruption, Current Affairs, Economic Terrorists of Pakistan, Economy, Global Wealth & Poverty, ISHAQ DAR:THIEF OF PUNJAB, Looters and Scam Artists, Politics & International Relations, Recent News, SCAMMER & FRAUDIAS, Tax Choor Ministers & Nawaz Sharif, Thieves of PMLN & PPP on January 29th, 2016
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Posted by admin in Saudi Arabia on December 20th, 2015
Tariq A. Al-Maeena
I had been a long-term critic of the state of affairs at the national carrier we have all come to know as Saudia. My extensive association with them provided me with an insight very few other writers had access to. And watching how the airline floundered and stumbled from a position of strength was indeed painful, not just to me and not just to the many dedicated employees of the organization, but to the hundreds of thousands of passengers dissatisfied with their experience with this airline.
One of the most perplexing questions was how this airline with practically a guaranteed market failed to make any significant impact in the region. In previous decades, and with very little competition around, Saudia was indeed the big kid on the block. There was a very lucrative market to tap into. The decades of the late 70s, 80s and 90s witnessed a massive flow of passenger migration called the “teacher movement”, whereby hundreds of thousands of school and university teachers from Egypt, Sudan, Syria, Jordan and elsewhere were transported back to their homeland during annual vacations.
There was also the annual flow of Saudi and expatriate tourists leaving the country during the hot summer months for cooler places. With the generous surplus provided by increasing oil prices, many Saudis and their families began venturing outside their borders using Saudia as a vehicle to get them to their destinations.
The rising standard of living also led to the recruitment by Saudi households of hundreds of thousands of domestic workers from Third World countries, all of whom were initially required to fly on Saudia.
Then there were the Umrah passengers who would fly from different corners of the world to perform their religious rites. Added to this were the millions who flocked to this country to perform the annual Haj pilgrimage. Saudia, the primary beneficiary of this vast abundance of passengers from so many different sectors and at different intervals during the year, was indeed very fortunate and the envy of many regional carriers. At that time, there was no Emirates Airlines or Qatar Airways or Etihad. It was all Saudia.
The government too was very generous to the national airline, allocating a sizable portion of its annual budget to bolster the operating costs of this growing company. But in spite of all that the company was gifted with, organizational rot began to set in. By the mid 90s, complaints were rising against the carrier from frustrated passengers who targeted everything from poor customer services to the shabby appearance of the aircraft and technical delays. But all such complaints fell on deaf ears. Operating costs kept rising, new CEOs were appointed but there was no significant change.
The privatization scheme announced in the 90s by the late Prince Sultan, who was the country’s minister of defense at the time, failed to move forward for many years as many of the airline’s executives continued to drag their feet against such a move. They feared that it would end their tenure as recipients of the cash cow that came to be known as Saudia. The airline was literally treated as a country club by some executives, where promotions to higher grades were determined not on the basis of qualifications but by who knew and buttered whom.
Saudi Airlines
The apparent lack of accountability led to unprecedented levels of nepotism. This blatant abuse of ethics led to diminishing corporate ethics and poor worker morale which translated to poor service and a poor product. It also signaled the end of service of many qualified individuals who left the airline disillusioned with the “backroom” politics. While other upstart regional airlines garnered awards on the global stage, Saudia was confined to looking at the festivities from behind the curtains.
But recently, things have begun to change. A new CEO took over. Saleh N. Al-Jasser was appointed as the director general of Saudi Arabian Airlines in 2014. He brought with him a “can do” spirit of change. He has introduced corporate discipline. Unlike his predecessors, he began by getting rid of senior deadwood executives who had been hanging on tenaciously to their positions for decades and had contributed nothing of significance to the airline’s growth. On the contrary, they were the reason the airline fell backwards. That process of cleaning up still continues as some more executives were removed from their posts recently.
Al-Jasser stated at the time of his appointment: “We will encourage a spirit of initiative and innovation to improve the level of performance and customer services. We will give top priority to customers in order to maximize satisfaction.” He also demanded that expenditures had to be rationalized and operational efficiency boosted. The privatization drive has been given new impetus. His pursuit of organizational agility and accountability has begun to translate itself as is evident by increased customer satisfaction and load factors. Morale is on the upswing, service has improved, passenger complaints have dropped, and the airline is finally getting on the right track. Saudia is becoming the first choice for many travelers.
Granted there is more work to be done and the competition is stiff, but with an individual like Saleh Al-Jasser piloting the organization, I have no doubt that Saudi Arabian Airlines will indeed be taken to new horizons.
— The author can be reached at talmaeena@aol.com. Follow him on Twitter @talmaeena
Posted by admin in Current Affairs, Defense, ISI, Politics, Recent News on August 12th, 2015
Gen Zaheer’s “Coup” Attempt and the Reaction.Brig Qadir’s essential point seems to be spot on i.e corruption in high places is nothing new. But what seems to be new is the level of frustration, disappointment and the anger it is engendering–and eventually a feeling of pure helplessness and hopelessness among a majority of us.The following seems to be increasingly happening in Pakistan.a. Anti-corruption sentiment seems to have graduated from strong disapproval to outright loathing and hatred for those who are selling our interests and our national assets. There is something personal about this now, which did not seem to be quite so, earlier.b.When the partisans of the government insist on calling the present system a democracy, more and more people react as if their intelligence is being deliberately insulted by those making this claim. And because this claim is made by the thugs themselves or by their side kicks, the reaction to it has a virulence about it which was not there some time ago.c. The Constitution was supposed to be that supreme law which was to hold the government in check and accountable. However its spirit is clearly seen to have been undermined in a way that it has now become a shield to protect and aid the government and give it immunity as it undermines the core interests of the state. With the police, bureaucracy, and the judiciary already made instruments of crime furtherance by the government, instead of crime prevention, and the Constitution being subverted to the same cause, is it any wonder then that whenever the Constitution is cited in support of the government, it elicits sneers from increasing numbers of people!d. Apart from unchecked theft by people in power, the present era is defined by either mis-governance, or no governance whatever. You can take your pick depending on your experience.e. It is a combination of all of the above, and utter terror of what tomorrow will bring if the perpetrators of our misfortune are not immediately restrained with the same ruthlessness, as the ruthlessness with which they are daily selling us down the drain, which is making people cry out for a redeemer.It is my very strong feeling, that though we have suffered all this in the past, but the sheer scale of the horror to which Pakistan is being subjected today, and the expectation of consequences that must unfold from this have become so unacceptable, that ANY redeemer will be acceptable.Thus would most readers agree with me in that, though Pakistan has suffered much in the past, what is unique about today is actually the scale of the effort which is undermining the state. And thus as a reaction to this is the scale of anxieties and fears unleashed.From: Mehboob Qadir <clay.potter@hotmail.com>One can not agree more with Naeem Ahmad.His is a cry of frustration, disappointment and anger on what is going around in the country behind the democracy smoke screen.However plunder of national resources, pocketing kick backs and commissions is not new here, particularly is no big issue with the NS clan.They are used to it since long. Any modicum of propriety detected in thereabouts should be taken as alarming .
Their hero and business partner Mr Ardugan is reported to have got a huge (800 rooms) palace constructed to go with the grandeur of the Turkish President, of which about 200 rooms are under use by his clansmen and kin.He is planning to subvert the Turkish constitution from a Parliamentry form to Presidential form, so that he could continue to be the President for as long as he wants.In Turkey one can not be a Prime Minister more than two times.He has nearly demoilshed his opposition; the Kamalist Republican Party and the field is set for ‘democratic’ semi theocratic dictatorship.It is common knowledge that no major government contract can be sanctioned without his poersonal approval.As a result he and his children( quite like NS and family) have become billionnaires.This briuef introduction must show why these profiteering men dash off to Istanbul so often and why these monsterous metros.Detect any similarities?Has anyone noticed the pathetic sight of an awfully under-capacity and small metrobus plying on the huge fly over track in Rawalpindi like a snail on your staircase.That disgust is not about the size of the bus but the utter disproportion of the expense on a trivial travel help which could best be served by a modern fleet of a hundred buses on properly metalled Rawalpindi- Islamabad roads.But that was neither glamorous nor provided opportunity to pocket billions of rupees.This track keeps dripping after rains even after days and there is no guarantee of workmanship of a project whose chief was a politician involved in huge Ephedrine scam.His engineering skills are unknown and more than that his personal integrity is completely suspect.But that is the way NS clan operates.Put a thief incharge of the treasury and pliage with both hands.
One is not sure of Gen(r) Zaheer’s alleged attempt , but one thing is certain ,these men and their buglers would soon have their feet in their mouths and would be made to suck.What goes around comes around.Mehboob Qadir
Date: Fri, 7 Aug 2015 17:36:24 -0700
Subject: Fwd: Gen Zaheer’s “Coup” Attempt and the Reaction.
From: pindori47@gmail.com
To:fwd as rcvd.Gen Zaheer’s “Coup” Attempt and the Reaction. Nasim Ahmed.
Recently, Khawaja Asif accused Gen Zaheer, ex-D.G of ISI, of goading Imran Khan into the Dharna to make grounds for a coup against Nawaz Govt. This should never have been discussed on T.V. Least of all by the Defense Minister.Najm Sethi, being Najam Sethi with his famous “Chirya” put addition spin on this. He said the “coup” was aimed at pulling down Nawaz Sharif, and pusing out Gen Raheel Sharif!This added masala was expected to sensationalize the issue. Sethi’s spin was designed to put Nawaz Sharif and the General on the same plank, and hence on the same side.It was indeed sensationalized and it became a talk of the town, but precisely for two days. After its 15 minutes of fame it died out.It did not get any further traction. The effect was quite the opposite of the intended. No one believed the Sethi spin, and saw it for the crude propaganda which it was.Instead of condemning Zaheer more and more people stated to rue the fact that he did not succeed.It started being said in private conversations that if Zaheer tried to do what he was being accused of, he needs to be praised for the effort.They said Pakistan was in the claws of vultures, and any one who gets the country out of these claws will be a hero.It is said that as chief of ISI he knew the cirmes of rulers much better than any one else. Any patriot would act the way he is alleged to have done.People are willing to bear anything. But they cannot bear to be plundered by their “leaders”. This is just not acceptable any more. They want to see these leader hanged.See the link to Dr Farrukh Saleem’s article below. This is a researched article. See what Pakistan has paid for its Metro. Then compare this with the next highest costing metro in the world has cost. And see the cost of gas imported from Qatar, and what India is paying for it.Who is pocketing the difference? No one needs to take a second guess to know where the plunder is going.If election commission had done its job, none of these leaders should have been allowed to even contest the elections because of corruption. But Ch Iftikhar the one eyed man. The thief. The hypocrite wanted take the country to hell with himself.How did Zardari become president when he was found guilty in the Swiss court? Having been found guilty of money laundering the prosecutor enhanced the charge to “aggravated” money laundering. Zardari and Queen Benazir refused to attend the hearings. But the original guilty remained.Ishaq Dar has given a confession for money laundering. Nawaz Sharif cannot justify their assets with their stated income which is reflected by the taxes they paid. This is the simplest formula to establish white collar crime in most civilized countries. They are all criminals if investigated. But every institution which could have brought them to book has been destroyed and works FOR the criminals they are supposed to work.In the public mind the constitution has become irrelevant. In most minds it has become a dirty word.After eighteenth amendment it has become dirt itself, because it allows dirt of the nation to settle on top of it. It permits this to happen without challenge.No one can help Pakistan and pull it out from this dirt.Army is the only institution left which can do this.Army has to choose between Pakistan and constitution.It is fault of thief politicians that this situation has come about.So long live Gen Zaheer if he thought of his country and tried to save it.And long live Gen Raheel and all his other generals who seem to be thinking only of Pakistan.For the first time it seems our army is working on behalf of the people of Pakistan. It is fighting heroically in trenches in the north. It is cleaning out the south. We hope it will now move to the middle and clean it of the filth which has been accumulating there for decades.If Pakistan has democracy, and this is what democracy means i.e no governance, no accountability of leaders, and total plunder by them, most people do not want democracy. The want security. A little justice. And some decency in public life.And they do not want to be plundered by these thieves sitting in the assemblies.Naeem Ahmed.
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