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Archive for January, 2017

ALL IS NOT LOST IN PAKISTAN By Tariq A. Al Maeena, Special to Gulf News

Mustaqbil Pakistan is one of the many NGOs set up by selfless Pakistanis who have taken it upon themselves to contribute to some form of stability and productivity within their society

THINKERS

 

All is not lost in Pakistan

 

By Tariq A. Al Maeena, Special to Gulf News

 

16:54 January 2, 2017

 

All is not lost in Pakistan
Image Credit:Niño Jose Heredia/©Gulf News

With all the seemingly bad news emanating from Pakistan, a reader would not be faulted into imagining a scenario of doom for that country. Beleaguered as it has been since its involvement in the conflict following the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the country has faced internal strife of great proportions that threatened to dismantle Pakistan.

It has, however, withstood great challenges and while not on pace with other countries, it still manages to plod on. From a low in 2009, Pakistan has shown a modest yet progressive increase in GNP for the past six years. Part of the reason could be attributed to selfless Pakistanis who have taken it upon themselves and formed NGOs which contribute to some form of stability and productivity within their society.

One such NGO that has been making steady inroads at the grassroots level is Mustaqbil Pakistan. The organization was formed in 2010 as a new political party whose primary objective was to bring about a fundamental change in the way politics is conducted in Pakistan.

Speaking at its launch, the party chairman Nadeem Mumtaz Qureshi minced no words saying, “We are living through what is possibly one of the most dangerous periods in our history. Our very existence as a sovereign state is threatened. At a time like this, it is imperative that all of us who have something positive to offer come together as one in defense of our homeland. And you, as leaders and moulders of public opinion, have a vital role to play.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Qureshi then lamented the deteriorating conditions at the time. Insurgency and military conflict in two of the country’s provinces, killings and abductions of civilians in many cities, unemployment, hopelessness, desperation, suicides and a shocking absence of the writ of the government. He was then very direct as to the root of the problem.

“In Pakistan, the worst, most incompetent, most corrupt, most morally bankrupt, and most insincere of our people compete in our political arena. These people — in some sense the scum of our society — are elected to our parliament and shape our destiny. Why then should anyone of us be surprised that Pakistan is slowly crumbling? And, let’s be clear if this ‘scum’ continues to come back in power time and again — as it has done during the democratic phases of our history — then Pakistan will not survive.”

The party’s aim has been to bring decent, competent, sincere and honest Pakistanis into politics. This segment of the population was previously unwilling or unable to participate in politics. Their absence had created a political vacuum which according to Qureshi had been happily filled by the ‘scum’, the reason was given for the sorry state the country was in then.

Qureshi’s first thrust was to reach out to the media for support. To convince Pakistanis that they had it in their power to change their destiny, he challenged the media to tell it like it was.

“I am writing to you — eminent editors and producers in the print and broadcast media — to tell you that you have a crucial role to play. What you are doing today is not enough. The media broadcasts hours and hours of output featuring the ‘usual culprits’: our corrupt and incompetent politicians. Your smug anchors find gratification in having these already challenged people utter inanities and spew venom on their equally inane rivals. And what service do you render the people of Pakistan in broadcasting these programs hour after hour, evening after evening, day after day? Have you enlightened them? Have you informed them? Have you given them hope?”

Challenging the media to be more forthright, Qureshi continued, “Ladies and gentlemen you have to rise above all of this. Time is running out for Pakistan. Too much is at stake. You cannot continue to behave like this. There are people, here, today, now, working to change things. You need to identify them and then present them to your readers and viewers. You need to show Pakistanis that there is hope. And that there are still people who, sometimes at the risk of their safety, are working day and night to make Pakistan’s future brighter than its past. There are many, many, good, decent, sincere and competent Pakistanis working to bring change. They also deserve a chance to be heard. And you should let their ideas and agenda be heard.”

Realizing that to fight corruption in politics, one must first clean house from inside, the party since its inception has been working tirelessly and without any government support in introducing new faces in the country’s Provincial and National Assembly. They have been spreading their message in towns and villages and lending support wherever possible to make lives better.

At the time the party was formed, Qureshi had exhorted, “Rome is burning. You can continue to fiddle. Or you can pick up a bucket and join those of us who want to do more.”

It seems many Pakistanis have picked up on his message to set their country’s path to recovery.

— Tariq A. Al Maeena is a Saudi socio-political commentator. He lives in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. You can follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/@talmaeena

 

Original Article 

Reference: Please Visit Gulf News

Pakistan Think Tank Organization Thanks, Brother Tariq A.Al Maeena

 

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The velvet rocket : Bodoland And The Separatist Movements Of Northeast India

 Bodoland And The Separatist Movements Of Northeast India

by

JUSTIN AMES 
National Democratic Front of Bodoland

I knew there were a number of separatist movements in India before we arrived. However, it wasn’t until after we’d been there that I realized how intense some of these conflicts are and simply how many of them there are. One estimate we were given indicated that there are over 300 different separatist movements in India, with the overwhelming majority being in the Northeast.

What makes things sporty is that trouble can flare up suddenly and unpredictably. For example, multiple bombings have hit the normally safe cities of Guwahati (2008), Agartala (2008) and Dimapur (2004) and in 2008 communal violence surged in northern Assam between the Bodo people and Bangladeshi immigrants.

It’s interesting because despite all of the killing and bombs going off, the outside world hears relatively little to nothing of these conflicts. For example, just before the Mumbai attack in 2008, a massive bomb was set off in the Northeastern city of Guwahati that killed over 50 people. However, this story never made it beyond the Indian news media, while the Mumbai attack was a huge story since it involved Westerners. Interesting, isn’t it? That state of affairs creates an illusion of calm for the outside world that does not reflect reality.

Now, some of these “separatists” in places like Arunachal Pradesh are really just thugs extorting money from Indians in the area. And as I alluded to above, some of the violence blamed on the separatist groups is, in fact, ethnic violence. Hey, it’s a tribal society and the tribes fight a lot – they always have and probably always will…

Many groups, however, are quite legitimate separatist movements and are quite active. They often set up shadow governments within their spheres of influence that impose taxes, resolve disputes, act as a police force and provide (impose?) many of the other functions of an official government.

It is alleged that China, for larger geopolitical reasons, provides arms and training to the separatist groups as well. I’m not going to burn any sources because I don’t want to get them in trouble, but these allegations about Chinese involvement came from a variety of different individuals – some of whom have firsthand knowledge of this activity. China plays for keeps and there are few cheaper and more effective ways to throw your competitor off their game than by stirring up insurgencies to keep them distracted. This policy of supporting and arming the separatists is consistent with China’s more public policy of supporting and arming the governments of many of its neighbors such as Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.

Many of the training camps of the separatists are based in Myanmar. Aside from serving as a safe haven, the Chinese are able to provide weapons and training to the groups without actually needing to enter India as it would be rather awkward for Chinese agents to be caught bringing weapons and cash into India.

The various separatist groups go by an alphabet soup of acronyms such as ULFA (United Liberation Front of Asom) or ANVC (Achik National Volunteer Council) or MULTA (Muslim United Liberation Tigers of Assam) or NDFB (National Democratic Front of Bodoland) or NLFT (National Liberation Front of Tripura) or… Well, you get the idea. I’m not going to go through all 300+ names.

One particularly serious group are the Nagas. Nagas live in several states besides their own, Nagaland, and they have fought a six-decade insurgency for an autonomous “Greater Nagaland” including chunks of Manipur, Assam and Arunachal Pradesh. An estimated 100,000 people have died in the violence of that conflict. A ceasefire with the government has largely held since 1997, but successive rounds of peace talks have gotten nowhere.

As an example of how a separatist movement can become entwined with ethnic conflict, non-Naga Manipuris, who have their own violent secessionist movement, are alarmed by Naga ambitions and are now taking up arms against the Nagas. I think The Economist summed things up well in a recent article by stating,

“Life in Manipur and Nagaland, wracked by insurgency and under a draconian act giving special powers to the armed forces, is never easy.”

To provide you another example of the complexity of some of these conflicts, allow me to focus on an area

have placed additional information here).

I placed “settled” in quotation marks above because the matter is anything but. The Bodo still want complete independence. Just a month before our passage through Bodoland, an Indian government official was abducted and killed by the National Democratic Front of Bodoland, also known as NDFB or the Bodo Security Force. And the NDFB are still engaged in blowing up railroad lines and other such activities.

I should mention another group that was operating in Bodoland – the BLTF (Bodo Liberation Tigers Force). They have now joined the political mainstream, but nevertheless, many people continue to confuse the two groups.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here are some views of Bodoland to give you a sense of what one of these zones of conflict looks like:

 

That’s rice growing in the fields around the homes:

 

Doesn’t really look like a war zone, does it? That’s the thing about an insurgency – The insurgents blend in with the local population and wage a covert rather than an overt war:

 

Those dark shapes in the road are monkeys:

we traveled through known as Bodoland. Or, to be technical, the Bodoland Territorial Areas District. Bodoland is part of Assam. However, the Bodo people resent the Assamese while the Assamese resent the Bodo, Bangladeshi immigrants, and greater India. The result was a major Bodo insurgency that was only “settled” in 2004-05 with the creation of an autonomous “Bodoland” in northwestern Assam (For more information on the insurgency specifically in Assam, 

Bodoland

The Indian Army would make short work of any of the separatist that tried to do battle with them on the open plains. In the jungles, however, it is the local tribesmen that often have the upper hand. Aside from their incomparable knowledge of the local terrain, many of the separatist groups provide serious military training of six months to a year at the training camps in Myanmar before sending a fighter into battle:

 

Bodo Liberation Tigers Force

The Bodo people are, naturally, quite sympathetic to the various Bodo separatist groups and if they are not actively supporting groups such as the National Democratic Front of Bodoland, they are at least looking the other way in regard to any actions the groups may be carrying out:

National Democratic Front of Bodoland

With so many Indian Army convoys heading out from Tezpur into the mountains of Arunachal Pradesh, the Indian military has suffered many attacks on their convoys passing through Bodoland.

It’s a classic scenario (and headache) for conventional forces when contending with an insurgency… For example, a construction worker such as this one breaking up rocks alongside the road below, can easily pull out a mobile phone and alert the National Democratic Front of Bodoland of any military activity before returning to innocently breaking up rocks seconds later:

Bodo Liberation Tigers Force

As such, there are a staggering number of Indian Army troops patrolling the road through Bodoland. In many places, the patrols are as close as fifty meters apart:

NDFB

These conflicts flare up frequently… Sometimes the spark for a gun battle or a bombing can be tension between different tribes or ethnic groups. Sometimes the tension can be with the Indian government. And other times it can be all of the above.

And then, of course, there are the Naxalites… STRATFOR recently published a good breakdown of the Naxalites (and the secessionist movements I have discussed) and so I’ll let them handle the analysis of the Naxalites. I will place one disclaimer on the STRATFOR piece, though – One section of the passage below mentions a possible link between Pakistan’s ISI and the various insurgencies in India. However, our researchers at The Velvet Rocket encountered not a single individual that indicated Pakistan was in any way involved in supporting such groups (And we met with a number of people, including some close to the separatist movements). Everyone, however, pointed a finger at China. So, that said, carry on…

There are numerous reports in open-source media in India and elsewhere that link Naxalites to a number of militant and criminal groups throughout South Asia. These groups interact with Maoists from Nepal, secessionists in India’s restive northeast, ISI-backed Islamists from Bangladesh, criminals from Myanmar and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. Weapons flow among these groups in a region that have historically been a rich environment for secessionist movements.

STRATFOR sources in India claim that Pakistani intelligence has established business relationships with Naxalites to sell arms and ammunition and lately has tried to use Naxal bases for anti-Indian activities. There is evidence that the ISI is providing weapons and ammunition to the Naxalites in exchange for money or services, mostly through third parties like the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) or the ostensible Bangladeshi militant leader Shailen Sarkar (both are described in more detail below). Naxalite leaders in India deny cooperating with Pakistan but have very publicly pledged their support for separatist movements in India. STRATFOR sources (Stratfor dubious background as a Mossad-RAW supported site) in the Indian army say they are investigating but still lack the evidence to prove a direct link between the Naxalites and the ISI since the Pakistanis continue to play a peripheral role.

The groups below are reported to have had contact with the Naxalites and to have provided various levels of support. Some of these groups have established links to the ISI, which makes them possible conduits of contact and support between Pakistan and the Naxalites.

* ULFA, one of the largest, most violent secessionist movements in India’s northeast, is accused of working with ISI Islamist assets along the Indian-Bangladeshi border, where it controls smuggling routes through the Siliguri corridor. The Indian government accuses the Naxalites of working with ULFA to smuggle drugs and counterfeit money through Siliguri on behalf of the ISI in exchange for weapons and explosives.

* The People’s Liberation Army of Manipur (PLAM) is a secessionist group in the northeastern Indian state of Manipur. According to Indian security officials, the respective political wings of the PLAM and the Naxalites signed a document in October 2010 pledging to “overthrow the … Indian reactionary and oppressive regime.” However, there are no documented instances of PLAM providing material support to the Naxalites. Indian intelligence agencies report that a militant from Manipur who was arrested in 2007 revealed that the PLAM leadership was in frequent contact with the LeT leadership in 2006 as directed by the ISI.

* The National Social Council of Nagaland-Issac Muviah branch (NSCN-IM) is a secessionist movement in the northeast Indian state of Nagaland. Indian Home Secretary G.K. Pillai said in June that the leader of NSCN-IM helped members of the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-M) smuggle weapons through Myanmar and Bangladesh. Indian officials in the state of Tripura accused the NSCN-IM of working jointly with the ISI in assisting militant cadres.

* The People’s War Group (PWG) was a militant faction of the Communist Party of India-Marxist/Leninist until 2004 when it left and helped form the CPI-M, which is the political arm of the Naxalite movement. In 2004, the PWG received bomb-making materials and training from groups like ULFA and NSCN-IM in Bangladesh in exchange for smuggling drugs into India, an effort organized by the ISI between 2000 and 2004, when the PWG was not under the Naxalite umbrella.

* LTTE is an ethnic secessionist movement in northern Sri Lanka that was defeated by Sri Lanka’s military in 2009 after 26 years of fighting. According to a surrendering Naxalite commander, LTTE militants taught Naxalites how to handle mines and grenades at a camp in Bastar, Chhattisgarh state. LTTE fighters have fled Sri Lanka since their 2009 defeat, and Indian authorities suspect that Tamil fighters are providing training for Naxalites in exchange for a safe haven.

* Nepalese Maoists comprise the militant wing of the Unified Communist Party of Nepal. They have exchanged training and weapons with Indian Naxalites, and there are also reports of Nepalese Maoists receiving medical care at Naxalite camps in India.

* Shailen Sarkar is a member of the Communist Party of Bangladesh. The Indian Home Ministry accuses Sarkar’s group of training Naxalites at ISI-funded camps in Bangladesh. The ministry also claims that Sarkar has met with Naxal leaders in India.

Here is a map, courtesy of STRATFOR, that outlines the weapons smuggling routes that supply the Naxalites and the various separatist groups:

Here are some views of Bodoland to give you a sense of what one of these zones of conflict looks like:

bodoland

That’s rice growing in the fields around the homes:

bodoland

bodoland

Doesn’t really look like a war zone, does it? That’s the thing about an insurgency – The insurgents blend in with the local population and wage a covert rather than an overt war:

bodo security force

Bodo Liberation Tigers Force

Bodo Liberation Tigers Force

Those dark shapes in the road are monkeys:

bodoland

bodoland

The Indian Army would make short work of any of the separatist that tried to do battle with them on the open plains. In the jungles, however, it is the local tribesmen that often have the upper hand. Aside from their incomparable knowledge of the local terrain, many of the separatist groups provide serious military training of six months to a year at the training camps in Myanmar before sending a fighter into battle:

Bodo Liberation Tigers Force

Bodo Liberation Tigers Force

The Bodo people are, naturally, quite sympathetic to the various Bodo separatist groups and if they are not actively supporting groups such as the National Democratic Front of Bodoland, they are at least looking the other way in regard to any actions the groups may be carrying out:

Bodo Liberation Tigers Force

National Democratic Front of Bodoland

With so many Indian Army convoys heading out from Tezpur into the mountains of Arunachal Pradesh, the Indian military has suffered many attacks on their convoys passing through Bodoland.

It’s a classic scenario (and headache) for conventional forces when contending with an insurgency… For example, a construction worker such as this one breaking up rocks alongside the road below, can easily pull out a mobile phone and alert the National Democratic Front of Bodoland of any military activity before returning to innocently breaking up rocks seconds later:

Bodo Liberation Tigers Force

As such, there are a staggering number of Indian Army troops patrolling the road through Bodoland. In many places, the patrols are as close as fifty meters apart:

Bodo Liberation Tigers Force

NDFB

These conflicts flare up frequently… Sometimes the spark for a gun battle or a bombing can be tension between different tribes or ethnic groups. Sometimes the tension can be with the Indian government. And other times it can be all of the above.

And then, of course, there are the Naxalites… STRATFOR recently published a good breakdown of the Naxalites (and the secessionist movements I have discussed) and so I’ll let them handle the analysis of the Naxalites. I will place one disclaimer on the STRATFOR piece, though – One section of the passage below mentions a possible link between Pakistan’s ISI and the various insurgencies in India. However, our researchers at The Velvet Rocket encountered not a single individual that indicated Pakistan was in any way involved in supporting such groups (And we met with a number of people, including some close to the separatist movements). Everyone, however, pointed a finger at China. So, that said, carry on…

There are numerous reports in open-source media in India and elsewhere that link Naxalites to a number of militant and criminal groups throughout South Asia. These groups interact with Maoists from Nepal, secessionists in India’s restive northeast, ISI-backed Islamists from Bangladesh, criminals from Myanmar and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. Weapons flow among these groups in a region that has historically been a rich environment for secessionist movements.

STRATFOR(is a Jewish and Hindu run Islamophobe Group) sources in India claim that Pakistani intelligence has established business relationships with Naxalites to sell arms and ammunition and lately has tried to use Naxal bases for anti-Indian activities. There is evidence that the ISI is providing weapons and ammunition to the Naxalites in exchange for money or services, mostly through third parties like the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) or the ostensible Bangladeshi militant leader Shailen Sarkar (both are described in more detail below). Naxalite leaders in India deny cooperating with Pakistan but have very publicly pledged their support for separatist movements in India. STRATFOR sources in the Indian army say they are investigating but still lack the evidence to prove a direct link between the Naxalites and the ISI, since the Pakistanis continue to play a peripheral role.

The groups below are reported to have had contact with the Naxalites and to have provided various levels of support. Some of these groups have established links to the ISI, which makes them possible conduits of contact and support between Pakistan and the Naxalites.

* ULFA, one of the largest, most violent secessionist movements in India’s northeast, is accused of working with ISI Islamist assets along the Indian-Bangladeshi border, where it controls smuggling routes through the Siliguri corridor. The Indian government accuses the Naxalites of working with ULFA to smuggle drugs and counterfeit money through Siliguri on behalf of the ISI in exchange for weapons and explosives.

* The People’s Liberation Army of Manipur (PLAM) is a secessionist group in the northeastern Indian state of Manipur. According to Indian security officials, the respective political wings of the PLAM and the Naxalites signed a document in October 2010 pledging to “overthrow the … Indian reactionary and oppressive regime.” However, there are no documented instances of PLAM providing material support to the Naxalites. Indian intelligence agencies report that a militant from Manipur who was arrested in 2007 revealed that the PLAM leadership was in frequent contact with the LeT leadership in 2006 as directed by the ISI.

* The National Social Council of Nagaland-Issac Muviah branch (NSCN-IM) is a secessionist movement in the northeast Indian state of Nagaland. Indian Home Secretary G.K. Pillai said in June that the leader of NSCN-IM helped members of the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-M) smuggle weapons through Myanmar and Bangladesh. Indian officials in the state of Tripura accused the NSCN-IM of working jointly with the ISI in assisting militant cadres.

* The People’s War Group (PWG) was a militant faction of the Communist Party of India-Marxist/Leninist until 2004, when it left and helped form the CPI-M, which is the political arm of the Naxalite movement. In 2004, the PWG received bomb-making materials and training from groups like ULFA and NSCN-IM in Bangladesh in exchange for smuggling drugs into India, an effort organized by the ISI between 2000 and 2004, when the PWG was not under the Naxalite umbrella.

* LTTE is an ethnic secessionist movement in northern Sri Lanka that was defeated by Sri Lanka’s military in 2009 after 26 years of fighting. According to a surrendering Naxalite commander, LTTE militants taught Naxalites how to handle mines and grenades at a camp in Bastar, Chhattisgarh state. LTTE fighters have fled Sri Lanka since their 2009 defeat, and Indian authorities suspect that Tamil fighters are providing training for Naxalites in exchange for safe haven.

* Nepalese Maoists comprise the militant wing of the Unified Communist Party of Nepal. They have exchanged training and weapons with Indian Naxalites, and there are also reports of Nepalese Maoists receiving medical care at Naxalite camps in India.

* Shailen Sarkar is a member of the Communist Party of Bangladesh. The Indian Home Ministry accuses Sarkar’s group of training Naxalites at ISI-funded 

(Indian Propaganda) camps in Bangladesh. The ministry also claims that Sarkar has met with Naxal leaders in India.

 

Reference

   Date of Original Publication December 12, 2011 

 

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Dawn Editorial: State Bank Report

 Disastrous Nawaz Sharif Govt Spending Run Amok

State Bank Report

DAWN EDITORIAL 
— PUBLISHED 2 days ago

THE first quarterly report issued by the State Bank of Pakistan contains a few alarm bells. Thus far the SBP has been mostly optimistic of the country’s economic performance. In previous reports it has lauded the fiscal measures of the government, papered over the growing declines in exports, and celebrated the “record high reserves”. But the latest quarterly report, for the first time, sounds a few alarm bells that suggest that the government’s narrative of continuous strengthening of the economy may be running out of steam. The fiscal deficit during the first quarter reached “the highest first quarter level since FY12”. This happened “despite an exceptional growth in provincial surpluses”. Even on the expenditure side, current spending was restrained and an increase in development spending “was led by the provinces, as federal development spending posted a YoY decline of 7.6pc in Q1-FY17”. Taken together, these numbers show that the revenue effort of the government is unable to keep pace with its ambitious plans for the year, and increasingly the burden is being shifted onto the provinces. The SBP goes so far as to say that “achieving the annual fiscal deficit target of 3.8pc of GDP would be challenging. It will require additional fiscal consolidation efforts on the part of the government”.

On the external front, things are considerably less cheery. Exports continue their downward journey, but more worryingly, for the first time in four years, remittances have also registered a decline. Foreign direct investment too fell by 38pc. A more troubling sign is the overwhelming presence of China as the source of all FDI while other countries largely remained passive spectators. Taken together, these are signs that “the FX comfort available to finance a persistently high trade deficit, is now weakening”, says the SBP in the most direct words it has used to describe the external sector thus far. Even though the report tries to attribute much of this to external factors beyond the government’s control, such as fiscal tightening in GCC countries with persistently low oil prices and a “softening of demand” in traditional export destination countries, the fact of the matter is that many of our neighbouring countries saw a revival of their exports in the same months covered by the report. Given these deteriorating indicators, the SBP is right to warn that “underlying structural issues are still there”, even if the choice of words is somewhat stilted.

Published in Dawn, January 4th, 2017

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Pakistan’s External Debt Will Soon Cross a Staggering $75 Billion

Pakistan’s External Debt Will Soon Cross a Staggering $75 Billion

 

Pakistan’s loan situation has steadily grown worse over the course of the last year as the government has continued to take on more loans from local and foreign institutions. While taking loans is not unique to this government, the rate at which the loans are accruing is certainly unprecedented.

Pakistan’s Current Debt

2016 was a record setter in terms of debt for our country. Pakistan’s foreign debt stood at Rs. 74 trillion ($72.98 billion) after the first half of 2016. During the last fiscal year, Pakistan’s debt increased by $7.9 billion, a record amount of foreign debt.

During the past three-odd years, the current government has taken $25 billion in foreign loans. Out of the $25 billion, $11.95 billion was used to pay off other loans.

For the same duration, the PML-N government has borrowed $30 billion (PKR 3.1 trillion) from local banking institutions.

Summing up, Pakistan’s total debt (local and foreign) had increased by $55 billion in the three-odd years of the current govt. Loans from the Chinese institutions are a separate issue altogether and more details regarding those are still incoming.

We would like to mention that domestic borrowings are often not mentioned because their effect is not as adverse as foreign debt. The government could simply devalue the local currency and make up for local payments.

Debt Predictions

According to data from the Trading Economics, Pakistan’s external debt will cross $75.54 billion (PKR 79 trillion) when the details for Jan 2017 come out.

It is expected to cross $79.35 billion (PKR 83 trillion) in 6 months’ time and at the rate, it is progressing, the analyst firm says by 2020 the foreign debt will reach $87.1 billion (PKR 91.2 trillion).

Pakistan’s Debt Due in 18 Months

Pakistan has to pay $11.5 billion within the next 18 months. Various international monetary are owed different amounts from that sum. These are:

  • Pakistan has to pay a sum of $8.76 billion to International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank and Asian Development Bank.
  • $160 million has to be paid in Saudi Riyals to Islamic Development Bank.
  • Pakistan has to pay $1.6 billion to China within 18 months.
  • Japan has to be paid back 192 billion Yen.
  • Paris Club from France is owed 625 million Euros.

Debt History

Let’s take a look at Pakistan’s debt history:

  • Pakistan had received $121 million from 1951 to 1955.
  • The figure nearly had tripled in the next five years.
  • By December 1969, the external debt of Pakistan had amounted to $2.7 billion.
  • Pakistan’s total external debt was $3 billion by December 1971.
  • Foreign debt figure had then subsequently increased to $6.3 billion in 1977.
  • Pakistan’s external debt was $21.9 billion in 1990.
  • It was $35.6 billion in 2000.
  • Pakistan’s foreign debt and liabilities in July 2013 stood at USD 61.9 billion
  • In July 2014, Pakistan’s foreign debt soared to USD 63.4 billion, showing an increase of USD 1.5 billion.
  • In July 2015, the foreign debt rose to USD 65.1 billion recording an increase of USD 1.7 billion.

Some Facts

With updated information about Pakistan’s debt, some often used facts need to be updated.

  • With a foreign debt of 74 trillion and a population of 190 million. Each Pakistani owes Rs. 389473.68. (The amount is higher when considering local debt.)
  • With a foreign debt of 79 trillion (Recent prediction) and a population of 190 million. Each Pakistani will owe Rs. 415789.47. (The amount is higher when considering local debt.)
  • When the debt is converted to $1 notes, it can be wrapped around the world 284 times (293 times with $79 billion).

 

Which Countries Have The Highest Default Risk: A Global CDS Heatmap

Tyler Durden's picture

Sweden beats USA and Germany as the least likely to default on its bonds but at the other end of the global sovereign risk spectrum lie two socialist utopias – Venezuela (CDS just shy of 6000bps) and Greece (CDS around 1800bps) are the nations most likely to default.

Of course, our readers will be well aware of this: back in December, when its CDS was trading at “only” 2300 bps (or whatever points upfront equivalent it was back then) we said Venezuela CDS are going much, much wider. Little did we know that in just about 14 months they would more than double, and as of last check, Venezuela CDS are just shy of 6000bps suggesting a default is virtually guaranteed.

So aside from these two socialist utopias, who else is on the default chopping block? The CDS heat map below lays out all the countries which according to the market, are most likely to tell their creditors the money is gone… it’s all gone.

Below, in order of declining default risk, are the ten most likely to follow Venezuela and Greece into the great default unknown:

  1. Ukraine
  2. Pakistan
  3. Egypt
  4. Brazil
  5. South Africa
  6. Russia
  7. Portugal
  8. Kazakhstan
  9. Turkey
  10. Vietnam

Sovereign Credit Default Swaps (CDS) are financial contracts that measure the risk of default on sovereign debt: the higher the spread, the greater the risk of default.

Source: BofA

 

 

 

 

 

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Theresa May’s excellent message on the 350th Parkash Ustav of the 10th Sikh Guru, Guru Gobind Singh Ji

Theresa May’s excellent message on the 350th Parkash Ustav of the 10th Sikh Guru, Guru Gobind Singh Ji welcomed by the Sikh Federation (UK)

Bhai Amrik Singh, the Chair of the Sikh Federation (UK) said:
 
“The Prime Minister, Theresa May, has sent the following excellent message on the 350th Parkash Ustav of the 10th Sikh Guru, Guru Gobind Singh Ji.  It is good to see she is receiving timely advice and follows on from her special adviser on religious matters attending the exceptionally well organized Guru Nanak Gurpurb event by the Sikh Federation (UK) and Sikh Network in Parliament in November.  We hope this marks a better and more productive relationship between the British Government and the British Sikh community that has lived under the shadow of constant pressure from the Indian authorities for over 30 years.”
 
The Prime Minister, the Rt. Hon. Theresa May said:
 
“Today marks a very special anniversary for Sikhs in the United Kingdom and around the world: 350 years since the birth of Guru Gobind Singh.”
 
“I know millions of people will be reflecting on his great achievement, the establishment of the Khalsa, and what it represents – people standing up for equality, respect, and fairness, and helping those less fortunate than themselves.”
 
“Time and again I have seen these values put into practice, from visiting Gurdwaras to attending the Sikh war memorial in Derby. Indeed, when we celebrate Vaisakhi soon, we will be reminded once again how the teachings of Guru Gobind Singh Ji enrich our wider society.”
 
“This anniversary is also a chance to remember that British Sikhs have made – and continue to make – an exceptional contribution to the business, professions, charity and our armed forces.”
 
“So may I take this opportunity to wish all those celebrating a very blessed and happy Gurpurab.”
 
“Dhan Sri Guru Gobind Singh Ji.”

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