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Archive for September, 2013

Pak-US relations transitory in nature

Pak-US relations transitory in nature

Asif Haroon Raja

Unknown-1Delving into the history of Pak-US relations spread over six decades one finds that the US relationship was always transitory in nature. After the birth of Pakistan, Quaid-e-Azam and Liaquat Ali Khan managed to keep foreign influence at bay. Through their strength of superior leadership and character, they overcame plethora of teething problems mostly created by the British and India. The country not only survived but succeeded in developing its own economic feet. After the death of Liaquat Ali in October 1951, regionalism raised its ugly head and it became easier for the US to expand its perverse influence in Pakistan because of self-serving mini-mind leaders.  

The US influence over Pakistan has remained ever pervasive. Not only governments have come and gone under the directions of Washington, its economic health has also been regulated by it. Whenever the US desired to fulfill its interests in this region with the help of Pakistan, it uplifted its fortunes by doling out aid generously and winking at aid giving agencies to do the same. Aid injections are however strictly regulated in a manner to keep Pakistan afloat but dependent. Aid flow and goodwill prevailed as long as Pakistan leadership abided to its commands and served its interests loyally.

No sooner the US objectives are achieved, or it finds that Pakistan’s enthusiasm in performance of its assigned tasks is waning, or is becoming reluctant or defiant, or tilting towards some other power; its friendship turns into coldness and at times hostility. The chosen leader suddenly turns from an asset into a liability and is either humiliatingly ousted from power or murdered. Pakistan was punished when it lost its utility value, or for its defiance through sanctions, media war, coercion and fomenting internal instability to bleed its economy.

The US needed Pakistan’s services in early 1950s because of Communist threat and made it member of SEATO and CENTO. Pakistan joined the western pacts under the belief that it would remain secure from expansionist India. Moreover, all our political leaders and Governor/President after Liaquat Ali were pro-US. The US had no other alternative in this vital region since India was the camp follower of former Soviet Union and had refused to become part of defensive arc stretching from Turkey and Iran to Pakistan.

Even in those hey days during which Pakistan was termed as the most allied ally of the allies, the US stance was unfair. During 1962 Indo-China border conflict, the US falsely assured Ayub Khan that if he didn’t take advantage of the precarious military situation of India, it will help in resolving Kashmir dispute. Pakistan thus missed a golden chance to reclaim Kashmir. The US started building up Indian military in the aftermath of its humiliating defeat in the conflict, which enabled Indian Army to raise five additional infantry divisions between 1962 and 1965 and tilt the military balance in its favor.

During the 1965 Indo-Pak War, the US stopped economic as well as military aid including spare parts to Pakistan knowing that USSR was continuing to deliver India’s entire military needs. The US did not take into account that Pak military was entirely dependent upon US manufactured weaponry and was five times inferior to India both in men and material. Lowering of stocks of war munitions prevented Pakistan military from taking the war into Indian Territory and accepted Indian requested ceasefire after Indian offensives were effectively blunted on all fronts. Stoppage of economic assistance seriously impacted Ayub’s ambitious second five-year development program (1965-1970), which had all the potential to address east-west inequities and to turn Pakistan into an Asian tiger.  

President Ayub Khan remained in very good books of USA as long as he leaned heavily on USA but was unceremoniously ousted from power when he started tilting towards China. Moscow felt highly offended when Pakistan under Gen Yahya Khan acted as a conduit in 1971 to bring a thaw in China-US relations and decided to punish Pakistan. The turning point in Pak-US relations came during the 1971 Indo-Pak war when Pakistan’s repeated requests to help save marooned East Pakistan from falling were ignored by Washington while Moscow provided full support to India. ZA Bhutto was made a horrible example when he refused to stop nuclear program which started in 1976 in response to India’s nuclear explosion at Pokhran in 1974.    

After betraying Pakistan in the 1965 and 1971 wars against India, the US again befriended Pakistan in 1981 to help fight the proxy war against Soviet forces in Afghanistan. All the sins of President Ziaul Haq were ignored when he agreed to make Pakistan the frontline state of the US led Free World and assist the Mujahideen. His inclination towards Islam and continuance of nuclear program at Kahuta were accepted by Reagan and he was eulogized as a great Mujahid.

No sooner the objectives were accomplished in 1988; Pakistan’s sacrifices were forgotten. Zia the prime mover of Afghan Jihad was first terrorized through Ojhri Camp disaster in May 1988 and when he didn’t buckle, ‘Get Zia’ plan was conceived. He died in a C-130 plane crash on August 17, 1988. Although the crash of the most secure aircraft still remains a mystery, it is generally believed that CIA was behind it since Zia’s image in the Muslim world had shot up sky high and he had successfully weaponized nuclear program. He was all set to impose Shariah in Pakistan and had made a permanent place in the hearts of Afghans. He had become a danger man for the US and hence had to be got rid of.

Pakistan was abandoned with indecent haste and harsh sanctions were imposed under Pressler Amendment to force it to roll back its expensive nuclear program. Benazir Bhutto was twice brought into power in 1990s to denuclearize Pakistan, but each time she refused to oblige. Nawaz Sharif became a marked man after he refused to succumb to US-UK pressure and carried out six nuclear tests in May 1998 in response to Indian tests. To punish him, conditions were created for his removal from power and takeover by Gen Musharraf in October 1999. This crucial change was affected in anticipation to 9/11 and the agenda the US had chalked out against the Muslims. Nawaz survived death sentence by the skin of his teeth owing to Saudi intervention.  

After 9/11, the US once again offered its hand of friendship. President Bush led team deceived Gen Musharraf that it will make Pakistan its strategic partner and resolve all its economic problems if it agreed to become the frontline state in the war on terror. Pakistan was assured that this time the US would forge lasting relationship based on mutual trust and friendship and will not repeat past mistakes. Pakistan was taken out of the intensive care unit and given a new lease of life for next few years but the economic progress achieved during Musharraf regime proved short-lived since economy was consumer oriented.

Benazir Bhutto was all set to take over as PM for the third time, but was bumped off on December 27, 2007 since she had once again started to deflect from the route prescribed by USA. She was required to share power with Musharraf and not to confront him. Surprisingly, among the list of suspects, CIA doesn’t figure out. Five years and nine months have gone past and her murderers have still not been traced. After her murder, NRO cleansed dream team of PPP-MQM-ANP was installed by USA in March 2008 to serve its interests without demur.  

Musharraf was allowed to go in exile since in that timeframe he had become a liability. He was to be re-launched at an appropriate time. Whatever economic gains made during his tenure went down the drain because of poor governance, incompetence and corruption of the PPP led regime. Pakistan lost many times more than what it had gained through US aid.  

Although Pakistan rendered huge sacrifices in fighting US imposed war, the US neither acknowledged its sacrifices nor compensated it for the human and material losses it incurred since the puppet regime was taken for granted. The relations remained uneasy all along due to distrustful and bossy attitude of the US and GHQ’s reluctance to obey Washington’s command blindly. Frostiness turned into near hostility in 2011 as a consequence to Raymond Davis incident, stealth attack in Abbottabad and attack on Salala border post killing 24 Pak soldiers. Between December 2011 and July 2012, Pak-US relations were at lowest ebb. Thereafter the relations have begun to improve steadily although not without hiccups.   

This process of giving artificial respiration through US aid,  IMF, World Bank, Paris Club, ADB when Pakistan’s services are needed followed by policy of coercion to compel it to tow its line has been going on since 1953. It is a coincidence that whenever the US had to fulfill its strategic interests in this region, Pakistan was ruled by a military dictator. One window operation suited Washington to elicit quick responses rather than having to deal with multi-layered parliamentary system. For its crucial endgame in Afghanistan, the US tried its best to force Gen Ashfaq Kayani to take over the reins of power but the latter refused to oblige and let the change take place through democratic process.     

Lot of water has flown in River Indus since September 2001, when the US at its pinnacle of glory had ordered Pakistan to facilitate its intrusion into Afghanistan. After twelve years, the US has lost its splendor and is caught up in dire strait because of higgledy-piggledy situation in Afghanistan. It is requesting Pakistan which it has been drubbing on account of its uncommitted sins all these years to facilitate its safe departure from Afghanistan. It is urging Pakistan to persuade the Taliban to talk and arrive at a negotiated political settlement so that it could leave behind stable Afghanistan and friendly government. Under the changed environment there is visible change in the behavior of US officials. Rate of drone strikes has come down significantly and targets are chosen with care.

Tone and tenor of US officials have become affable and conciliatory. Despite the apparent thaw in relations, it will be early to jump to conclusion that all friction points have been removed and trust restored. Such assuring words and promises had been uttered by US officials’ way back in 2001 but their stance started changing after 2004. Thereon, it became difficult for Pakistan to ascertain whether it was an ally or foe of USA.

Even after its reassurance that the US would refrain from committing past mistakes and would make amends for the excesses committed, it keeps India and Afghanistan on higher priority. TTP and BLA are still being funded and used to destabilize Pakistan through proxy war. Ongoing escalation of tension along the LoC together with tantrums of unpredictable Karzai and spate of terrorist acts in various parts of Pakistan are designed to put pressure on the new government to pick up cudgels against the militants in FATA rather than initiating peace talks. Acceleration of militancy in Balochistan is aimed at giving a message that establishment of nationalist government led by Dr Malik has not lessened the resolve of separatists seeking independence of Balochistan.

US SABOTAGE IRAN-PAKISTAN PIPELINE AND GWADER PROJECT

Other objectives are to sabotage IP gas pipeline and Gawadar projects. Likewise, stepped up terrorist acts in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are aimed at undermining PTI government advocating peace talks with Taliban. Karachi is being bled to further bleed the economy of Pakistan. Projected peace talks with TTP are resented and US toadies are applying all tricks to kill the initiative taken by All Parties Conference (APC).  

Apart from application of pressure tactics to keep Pakistan tamed, the US is bent upon making India a global power, a permanent member of UNSC, a counterweight to China and a dominant player in Afghanistan. To this end, the US has taken practical steps to strengthen India economically and militarily. It would like settlement of Kashmir issue but on Indian terms. It will not benefit Pakistan at the cost of annoying India. In other words, as a policy it would always prefer India over Pakistan and in case of Indo-Pak war it will stand behind India.

In the backdrop of foreign policy framework of USA in which Pakistan doesn’t figure out, we must be careful in jumping to wishful conclusions. We shouldn’t lose sight of prudence and should remain vigilant not to again get deceived by sweet talk of US leaders asserting that they want to move to ‘full partnership’ with Pakistan. Rather, our leadership should be mentally prepared to get ditched once again after completion of ISAF’s drawdown in December 2014. Rather than keeping all our eggs in the basket of untrustworthy USA, our policy makers formulating national security policy should distribute the eggs pragmatically and give top priority to national interests.

Holding of Defence Committee National Security Council to take stock of internal and external security issues, on-going Rangers led operation in Karachi under the captaincy of Chief Minister Sindh to tackle lawlessness after taking all stakeholders on board, and holding of APC to discuss ways and means to tackle extremism and terrorism are steps in the right direction. It was satisfying to hear all the participants of APC condemning drones as illegal and agreeing to take up the matter to the UN, terming terrorism as a blowback from Afghan war and endorsing holding talks with Taliban with no strings attached. It was rightly decided to abandon policy of fight-and-fight or fight-and-talk and to give peace a chance.

Reaffirmation of complete trust and confidence in the armed forces and extending full support to them in tackling security challenges was gratifying. Praying for the martyrs in war on terror and extending sympathies to the bereaved families and calling upon provincial governments to provide assistance to them were praiseworthy gestures. It is also good to hear that TTP has welcomed the offer of talks and expressed willingness to hold negotiations without conditions.

Having made all the noble declarations, what is now needed is sincere and honest implementation of resolution in letter and spirit and not like the previous two joint resolutions of APC/Parliament. While the news of troops falling back from Shangla, Dir and Malakand in October in phase 1 and from Swat in phase 2 was being greeted, ill-fated martyrdom of Maj Gen Sanaullah, Lt Col Tauseef and L/Naik Imran in Upper Dir on 15 September on account of IED has vitiated the atmosphere of peace talks. IED w,as in all probability planted by fugitive Fazlullah’s men assisted by external forces to sabotage peace talks. Anti-state elements and spoilers need to be kept under strict scrutiny and exposed.        

The writer is a retired Brig, defence analyst, columnist and author of several books. [email protected]    

                              

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Poll: Pakistanis against Taliban, disagree over sharia views

Poll: Pakistanis against Taliban, disagree over sharia views

 

 

 

swat-talibannew poll shows public opinion in Pakistan has turned sharply against the Taliban and other Islamist militants, even though they still do not trust the United States and President Barack Obama. Reporting on the poll, our Asia specialist in Washington, Paul Eckert, said theWorldPublicOpinion.org poll, conducted in May as Pakistan’s army fought the Taliban in the Swat Valley, found that 81 percent saw the Pakistani Taliban and al Qaeda as a critical threat to the country, a jump from 34 percent in a similar poll in late 2007. Read Eckert’s report here.

(Photo: Pakistani Taliban in Swat, 2 Nov 2007/Sherin Zada Kanju)

The poll shows a wide divergence between Pakistani public opinion and the views of the Taliban on the implementation of sharia, a religious issue sometimes cited to help explain earlier tolerance of the militants. Some 80 percent of the respondents said sharia permits education for girls, one of the first services the Taliban close down when they gain control of an area. And 75 percent said sharia allows women to work, which the Taliban do not.

Reflecting their distrust, 71 percent said they believed the Taliban would not even submit to the sharia courts that they themselves have set up or promised to install as a pure and speedy alternative to Pakistan’s corrupt and inefficient civil courts. Only 14 percent supported the Taliban claim that it could provide more effective and timely justice than the state, a claim that partly helped the Islamist militants in the past (although it must be added that only 56 percent expressed trust in the civil courts). Only 9 percent said they thought the Taliban would do better at fighting corruption than the government, which got a lukewarm 47 percent. In any case, these results seem to indicate very little support for trademark Taliban promises that once seemed attractive.

anti-taliban-rally

If accurate, these findings mark a major shift from the results of a similar poll by WorldPublicOpinion.org in late 2007, not long after the Pakistani army flushed out Islamist militants who had taken control of the Red Mosque complex in the heart of Islambad. More than 100 died in the raid, including dozens of suspected militants and at least 10 troops. Some 64 percent said the raid was a mistake while only 22 percent supported the decision. A 60 percent majority believed that sharia should play a larger role in Pakistani law than it did at the time.

 

swat-talibannew poll shows public opinion in Pakistan has turned sharply against the Taliban and other Islamist militants, even though they still do not trust the United States and President Barack Obama. Reporting on the poll, our Asia specialist in Washington, Paul Eckert, said theWorldPublicOpinion.org poll, conducted in May as Pakistan’s army fought the Taliban in the Swat Valley, found that 81 percent saw the Pakistani Taliban and al Qaeda as a critical threat to the country, a jump from 34 percent in a similar poll in late 2007. Read Eckert’s report here.

 

The poll shows a wide divergence between Pakistani public opinion and the views of the Taliban on the implementation of sharia, a religious issue sometimes cited to help explain earlier tolerance of the militants. Some 80 percent of the respondents said sharia permits education for girls, one of the first services the Taliban close down when they gain control of an area. And 75 percent said sharia allows women to work, which the Taliban do not.

Reflecting their distrust, 71 percent said they believed the Taliban would not even submit to the sharia courts that they themselves have set up or promised to install as a pure and speedy alternative to Pakistan’s corrupt and inefficient civil courts. Only 14 percent supported the Taliban claim that it could provide more effective and timely justice than the state, a claim that partly helped the Islamist militants in the past (although it must be added that only 56 percent expressed trust in the civil courts). Only 9 percent said they thought the Taliban would do better at fighting corruption than the government, which got a lukewarm 47 percent. In any case, these results seem to indicate very little support for trademark Taliban promises that once seemed attractive.

anti-taliban-rally

If accurate, these findings mark a major shift from the results of a similar poll by WorldPublicOpinion.org in late 2007, not long after the Pakistani army flushed out Islamist militants who had taken control of the Red Mosque complex in the heart of Islambad. More than 100 died in the raid, including dozens of suspected militants and at least 10 troops. Some 64 percent said the raid was a mistake while only 22 percent supported the decision. A 60 percent majority believed that sharia should play a larger role in Pakistani law than it did at the time.

(Photo: Anti-Taliban rally in Lahore, 19 June 2009/Mohsin Raza)

Another poll, by the International Republican Institute, relativises this shift a bit. Conducted in March, before the height of the Taliban-army clash in Swat and the video of Taliban flogging a teenage local girl that reportedly turned Pakistani opinion against the militants, it shows more sympathy for the Taliban’s sharia demands. While 74 percent said religious extremism was a problem in Pakistan, 80 percent supported the introduction of sharia in Swat and 72 percent supported the government peace deal with the Taliban there. Some 56 percent said they would support the Taliban if they demanded sharia in other cities such as Karachi, Multan, Quetta or Lahore.

The relationship between traditional religious views and the Taliban in Pakistan and Afghanistan is so complex that I’m not sure any poll gives a very accurate picture. Unfortunately, neither poll examined in greater detail what those polled thought about sharia and how much of it should be applied in Pakistan. Does anyone have other poll results that give what they think is a better picture?(Photo: Anti-Taliban rally in Lahore, 19 June 2009/Mohsin R

Another poll, by the International Republican Institute, relativises this shift a bit. Conducted in March, before the height of the Taliban-army clash in Swat and the video of Taliban flogging a teenage local girl that reportedly turned Pakistani opinion against the militants, it shows more sympathy for the Taliban’s sharia demands. While 74 percent said religious extremism was a problem in Pakistan, 80 percent supported the introduction of sharia in Swat and 72 percent supported the government peace deal with the Taliban there. Some 56 percent said they would support the Taliban if they demanded sharia in other cities such as Karachi, Multan, Quetta or Lahore.

The relationship between traditional religious views and the Taliban in Pakistan and Afghanistan is so complex that I’m not sure any poll gives a very accurate picture. Unfortunately, neither poll examined in greater detail what those polled thought about sharia and how much of it should be applied in Pakistan. Does anyone have other poll results that give what they think is a better picture?

 

First Published: 2009

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TERRORISM IN KARACHI: BRITISH TERRORIST ALTAF HUSSAIN UNTOUCHABLE: BRITISH COURTS & DAVID CAMERON GOVERNMENT PROVIDE PROTECTION

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Altaf Hussain, the notorious MQM leader who swapped Pakistan for London Altaf Hussain lives in London but leads Pakistan’s powerful, controversial MQM party, which has millions of supporters. He has also been acccused of inciting murder and violence in his home country MQM supporters gather at a rally in Karachi, Pakistan in January 2011.  Pakistan’s most vibrant, vivacious and popular 24-hour news channel, Geo TV, generally has little difficulty recruiting staff. Its headquarters are in Karachi, Pakistan’s so called “city of dreams” – a massive, sprawling conurbation with 20 million residents seeking a better life. And yet there was one vacancy recently that Geo TV could not fill. The channel wanted a lookalike for its popular satirical show, in which actors play the parts of the country’s leading politicians. It was a job offering instant stardom and good money. And not a single person in Karachi was willing to do it. The man Geo TV sought to satirise was Altaf Hussain, the leader of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM). And the reason no one applied was the fear that if Altaf Hussain were unamused by the performance, the actor playing him would be murdered. Anxiety about the MQM is not restricted to Pakistan. One member of the British House of Lords who has been openly critical of the MQM recently said: “If I went to Karachi now I would be killed.” Another peer has similar worries: “This is one issue I don’t ask questions on. I have my child to worry about.” The man who has everyone looking over his or her shoulder does not even live in Karachi. For more than 20 years, Altaf Hussain has operated from the north London suburb of Edgware, beyond the reach of Pakistani prosecutors. He is almost completely unknown in the UK: his four-million-plus devoted supporters live thousands of miles away. It’s difficult to know how many murder cases have been registered against Altaf Hussain, but perhaps the most authoritative number was released in 2009 when the then Pakistani president General Pervez Musharraf implemented his National Reconciliation Order, granting most of the country’s senior politicians an amnesty. One of the biggest beneficiaries was Hussain, against 72 cases were dropped, including 31 allegations of murder. The MQM rejects all the murder charges lodged against Hussain. When Pakistan was created in 1947 it had a population of 70 million. As well as the Bengalis in East Pakistan (who split away to form Bangladesh in 1971) there were four main indigenous groups: the Sindhis, the Baloch, the Pashtuns and the Punjabis. Partition brought a new element: Muslims who had fled Hindu-majority India. They were called the Mohajirs and most settled in Karachi, which was then the capital of Pakistan. This is the group represented by the Mohajir Qaumi Movement or, as it’s now named, the Muttahida (United) Qaumi Movement or MQM. At first the Mohajirs fared well. As many had spearheaded the campaign to create the country, they slipped naturally into leadership positions. But their disproportionate influence could never last. By the 70s a political backlash, especially from Punjabis and Sindhis, was in full swing and many Mohajirs found themselves unable to secure jobs or even places in schools and universities. For a group that thought it had the right to govern, it came as a heavy blow. And the first man to exploit the Mohajirs’ sense of grievance was Hussain. In 1988 MQM candidates broke through, and suddenly the party was the third largest in the National Assembly and has dominated Karachi politics ever since. Hussain has periodically flirted with demands for some kind of territorial settlement: “When everyone else had a province,” he said in March 1984, “we said the Mohajirs should have one too.” But for the most part he has accepted that such a demand is plainly unacceptable to the rest of Pakistan and has restricted himself to demands for greater Mohajir rights within the existing national framework. Altaf Hussain with his British passport, granted in 2002. The MQM’s most vocal critic today is cricketer-turned-playboy-turned-Islamist-politician Imran Khan. In 2007, portraying himself as the man who dared to confront even the most entrenched political interests, Khan paid a visit to the Metropolitan police in London to hand over, he claimed, evidence of Hussain’s wrongdoing. Apparently unimpressed with the quality of that evidence, the police did not bring any charges and Khan let the issue drop. But in May this year when one of his best-known party activists in Karachi, Zahra Shahid Hussain, was shot down outside her home, Khan openly accused the MQM of her murder. Thousands of his social media-savvy supporters were encouraged to complain to the British police. More than 12,000 did so and the police responded by, for the first time, formally investigating Altaf Hussain’s London activities. There are a number of strands to the Met’s inquiries. First there is the issue of whether the MQM leader is using his London base to incite violence in Pakistan. In assessing that, the police have a huge amount of material to sift through, much of it online. At his birthday party in 2009, for example, he regaled his guests with a remark aimed at Pakistan’s rich landowners and businessmen: “You’ve made big allegations against the MQM. If you make those allegations to my face one more time you’ll be taking down your measurements and we’ll prepare your body bags.” Because he is in London, Hussain addresses rallies in Karachi over the telephone. Crowds gather to listen to his voice through loudspeakers. In one such speech he had this message for TV anchors: “If you don’t stop the lies and false allegations that damage our party’s reputation, then don’t blame me, Altaf Hussain, or the MQM if you get killed by any of my millions of supporters.” Most of his threats have been aimed at people in Pakistan but at least one was directed at the UK journalist Azhar Javaid who asked a question once too often. At a press conference in September 2011 Hussain warned Javaid that his “body bag was ready”. Adressing those whom he accused of denying the Mohajirs their rights, in December 2012, Hussain ranted: “If your father won’t give us freedom just listen to this sentence carefully: then we will tear open your father’s abdomen. To get our freedom we will not only tear it out of your father’s abdomen but yours as well.” Partly because of the difficulty of establishing unchallengeable translations of Hussain’s words, it might be months before the police decide whether to recommend a prosecution. In the meantime there is talk of a private prosecution. Long-time MQM critic George Galloway MP recently set up a fund to pay the legal fees of such an initiative. On two occasions British judges have found that the MQM is a violent organisation. In 2010 a Karachi-based police officer sought asylum in the UK claiming the MQM was threatening to kill him in revenge for his having registered a case against one of its members. The judge, Lord Bannatyne, granted asylum and in his judgment accepted that: “the MQM has killed over 200 police officers who stood up to them in Karachi”. The figure is often cited by the Karachi police themselves, and refers to those officers who were closely involved in Benazir Bhutto’s anti-MQM crackdown, Operation Clean-up. It came in 1995, during Bhutto’s second government. Unable to rely on the slow, intimidated and corrupt courts, which were always nervous to convict MQM defendants, the security forces resorted to hundreds if not thousands of extrajudicial killings of MQM activists. Many of the police officers responsible have subsequently been murdered. MQM, however, refutes any allegations of inciting violence from London. Imran Farooq was stabbed to death outside his flat in north London. Photograph: Metropolitan Police/PA When asked about these allegations, MQM issued the following statement to the Guardian: “We’d also like to point out here that it is the MQM that has been the worst victim of violence in recent history of the country. The Taliban and other jihadi elements have killed scores of MQM members … ” As well as the incitement investigation, the British police are currently running another MQM-related inquiry. It concerns the September 2010 murder of a senior MQM member, Imran Farooq, who was stabbed to death outside his flat in Green Lane, Edgware. For the UK authorities, his murder crossed a red line. London is open to outsiders – but they have to leave their violent politics back home. The Counter Terrorism Command have launched a massive and sustained investigation into Farooq’s death. In December last year they raided the MQM’s Edgware offices where they found substantial thousands of documents. Since most of the material is in Urdu and some, from MQM lawyers, is subject to client privilege, assessing it is extremely time-consuming. But with 12 officers working on the case full-time and a whole range of specialists available to carry out specific tasks when needed, the police are still showing real determination to trace Farooq’s killer. In its statement to the Guardian, the MQM said: “MQM understands that as part of that ongoing investigation, the Metropolitan police have interviewed several hundred people. MQM has assisted the ongoing police investigation whenever it has been requested to do so. A number of MQM party members have also voluntarily offered to be witnesses to assist the ongoing police investigation. Mr Altaf Hussain, MQM’s party leader, has not been arrested nor charged with any criminal offence. The police are treating Mr Hussain as one of a large number of potential witnesses in their investigation and not as a suspect.” Right from the start the police raids in the investigation have produced rich material. Shortly after the 2010 murder the police found a significant number of papers stashed in Farooq’s home. Some of the documents gave credence to the confessions made by a number of suspected MQM militants in Karachi. Repeatedly, MQM activists there had told the Pakistani authorities they were trained in India. Asked on numerous occasions over a period of several weeks about its relationship with the MQM, Indian government officials have failed to make any statement on the matter. Recent police raids have turned up £150,000 at the party’s Edgware’s offices and £250,000 at Hussain’s house in Mill Hill. The police say they are making significant progress in the Farooq murder case and have an ever-clearer understanding of what they believe was a conspiracy to kill him. Their investigation, however, is complicated by the fact that the MQM has supporters deep within the Pakistani state who want to protect it, and more cynical actors such as Pakistan’s main intelligence agency, the ISI, which want to control it. However, the recent elections in Pakistan have left the MQM politically weaker and there is a distinct possibility that the government of Nawaz Sharif will be less protective of the MQM than the last administration. Aware that Farooq’s killer or killers may be thousands of miles away and, the British Police believe, back in Pakistan, the UK investigation has focused on who might have ordered the murder. Having promised full co-operation with the British authorities Hussain has also complained that he is the subject of a witch-hunt and a conspiracy. Recent British police actions have included the arrest (he is now bailed until September) of Altaf Hussain’s nephew, Ishtiaq Hussain. The police won’t divulge why he was arrested. Intriguingly, Altaf Hussain also let slip that he himself and MQM were being investigated for money laundering. This is now one of the most active elements of the British police’s work. The question is: where does all the money seized in the raids and that used to buy the MQM’s extensive UK property portfolio come from? In the statement to the Guardian, the MQM deny the laundering allegations. “It is reiterated here that the party, its leader Mr Altaf Hussain or any other member of the Party has never dealt with any money that is the proceeds of crime. MQM’s legal team has already submitted effective answers to questions concerning the cash seized from the party’s office, whereas legal responses would be submitted shortly concerning the cash seized from Mr Altaf Hussain’s residence.” With a condescension that is increasingly grating to the Pakistani public, Washington and London produce a regular flow of statements expressing concern about various Pakistani human rights abuses. But the whole issue of human rights monitoring is suffused with double standards. The abuses listed by the US and the UK are in fact little more than diplomatic ammunition held in reserve and deployed should the need arise. The UK itself has questions to answer. It has resisted repeated Pakistani requests to hand over Hussain so that he can stand trial for murder in Pakistan. Hussain arrived in London in February 1992 and just three years later, Benazir Bhutto – then prime minister – was asking for London’s help. “I think the British government has a moral responsibility to restrain Mr Altaf Hussain and say you cannot use our soil for violence,” she said. Eighteen years later, Imran Khan’s appeal was strikingly similar: “I blame the British government. Would they allow someone to sit in Pakistan and threaten people in the UK? They know about his track record.” A protest against Altaf Hussain, outside Downing street in May this years Photograph: AFP/Getty Images If Hussain were a suspected London-based jihadi, many Pakistanis believe, he would have been arrested years ago. Pakistanis point to other instances where they believe the UK has favoured Hussain. In 2002 he was issued with a UK passport. Off the record, British officials admit that the process by which he obtained nationality was flawed – a decision in January 1999 to grant him indefinite leave to remain in the UK was made as a result of a “clerical error”. Despite repeated questions, the Home Office has refused to disclose what that error was. Most Pakistanis dismiss the idea of a clerical error as risible. They point to a letter No 10 received from Hussain as evidence of how the UK and the MQM have tried to conceal the true nature of their relationship. Written just two weeks after 9/11, in it Hussain says that if the UK wanted hundreds of thousands of people on the streets of Karachi denouncing terrorism he could lay that on with just five days’ notice. He claimed he could also organise human intelligence on the Taliban and could set up a network of fake aid workers in Afghanistan to back up Western intelligence gathering efforts there. After a copy of the letter appeared on the internet, the MQM denied its authenticity. Disclosures under the Freedom of Information Act have established that the letter is in fact authentic. Faced with that information, the Foreign Office admitted it had received the letter. As Hussain suggests in the letter, British interest in the MQM is largely driven by the perception that the party offers a defence against jihadis. But there is more to it than that. The MQM is British turf: Karachi is one of the few places left on earth in which the Americans let Britain take the lead. The US consulate in Karachi no longer runs active intelligence gathering operations in the city. The British still do. When it comes to claiming a place at the top table of international security politics – London’s relationship with the MQM is a remaining toehold. And there’s something else. The FCO’s most important currency is influence. Successive Pakistani governments, when they are not demanding Hussain’s extradition, have included his parliamentary bloc in various coalition governments. From the FCO’s point of view, it’s a great source of access. Right on their doorstep, in London, they have a man with ministers in the Pakistani government. For its part the UK government insists there is nothing unusual about its contacts with MQM and that its meetings with MQM officials are: “a normal part of diplomatic activity around the world”. I spoke to a British official recently about the MQM and asked why the UK government, so keen to declare its commitment to human rights, seemed so willing to deal with the party despite officials privately saying that it uses violence to achieve its goals. She said: “There is one thing I can assure you of – it’s not a conspiracy.” Which in a sense is true. It’s not a conspiracy. It’s just policy. Owen Bennett-Jones is the author of Target Britain

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Peace talks with TTP floundering

Peace talks with TTP floundering

Brig.(Retd)Asif Haroon Raja

While corruption, inefficiency and bad governance which were the hallmarks of the last regime have made our economy fragile, decade old terrorism has struck the severest blow to the economy. Not only over $100 billion has gone down the drain, over 40,000 people have lost their lives in this senseless infighting. Despite such huge sacrifices and economic losses, terrorism has not been bridled. It has become so menacing that Army chief had to state last year that internal and not external threat is most dangerous to the security of Pakistan.

Terrorism in Pakistan has become multi-dimensional since TTP the mother hen has 69 terrorist groups of different hues under its wings. These include foreign groups like Al-Qaeda, IMU and Turkistan movement. Arab, African, Tajik, Uzbek, Chechnyan, Uyghur, Afghan nationals and Hindu RAW agents disguised as Muslim Mujahids are all present in North Waziristan (NW). To make matters worse for Pakistan, TTP is aided by several foreign powers and it has safe routes of supply from Afghanistan. Arms are also stolen from NATO containers. Although thoroughly battered by the military, TTP created in December 2007 is still powerful enough to challenge the writ of the state in NW, which it has made into its main base after its ouster from South Waziristan (SW) in November 2009. Each group has become militarily powerful and self-reliant. IMU is currently providing main strength to TTP and is averse to talks and so is al-Qaeda.

Owing to its affiliation with so many groups located in all parts of Pakistan, TTP members can strike the chosen targets howsoever well protected and get away. The militants can kidnap for ransom, extort money, procure explosives, arms and funds and communicate with ease. Our intelligence agencies and investigative agencies operating in respective orbits and police cannot locate wanted leaders of TTP and other terrorist groups, their hideouts and sleeping cells in urban centres. They seldom learn about their movement and method of operation, and their mode of receiving cash from internal and external sources. The worst was when militants broke into DIK jail and after freeing 250 prisoners loaded them in vehicles and safely reached NW. 250 target killers in Karachi wanted by the law enforcement agencies have safely escaped to NW. Spokesman of TTP transmit messages on wireless or telephone on behalf of Hakimullah from unknown location but is never detected. Terrorists nabbed with great difficulty are freed by courts on account of lack of evidence.    

Out of several high profile attacks on sensitive targets, loss of three PC-3 Orions and one Swedish made AWAC and damage to two was most excruciating for the military since it impaired its early warning capability. These aircraft acted as eyes and ears against threats from the sea and western border. The US has so far not made good the losses of Orion. ISI setups were hit in several cities to weaken first line defence of Pakistan. Tying down 150,000 security forces in FATA and parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) has to an extent weakened military balance on eastern front. Ten-year high intensity war with high rate of fatalities and injuries to all ranks has impacted the operational, administrative and technical fitness of Army and Frontier Corps and has fatigued the troops. PAF has been frequently used in hitting far flung hideouts of militants and in major operations and in the process has consumed precious flying hours. So has Aviation. All these factors are to the advantage of our arch enemy India. TTP has not gained anything out of this war but has served India’s interest.

With PML-N and PTI coming into power, it is hoped that some way out of war on terror will be found because of tacit two-way understanding. TTP had spared these two parties and targeted only liberal parties during election campaign. As ground was being leavened for entering into negotiations with TTP, death of Hakimullah Mehsud’s deputy Wali-ur Rahman by drone in NW derailed the process but brought to fore division within TTP Shura. This supposition turned into reality when TTP spokesman Ehsanullah Ehsan and head of Punjabi Taliban Muawia were sacked by Hakimullah for welcoming PM Nawaz’s desire for peace talks.

The peace process once again picked up momentum when positive signals were exchanged from both sides and APC conference was held on September 9 to decide how to tackle terrorism. Notwithstanding the reservations of anti-peace lobbies that are in small minority, great majority fed up of the war welcomed the outcome of conference in which it was unanimously decided to give peace a chance and to enter into dialogue with militants without pre-conditions. People got further encouraged when TTP spokesman Shahidullah Shahid after getting clearance from his boss greeted the resolution passed by APC. Chief Minister KP in his excitement declared on 14 September that troops deployed in Shangla, Dir and Malakand Division would fall back next month.     

Amidst the euphoria, peace process that has yet to take off has begun to flounder in the very preparatory phase because of unfortunate incident on September 15. Maj Gen Sanaullah, Lt Col Tauseef and one NCO lost their lives in Upper Dir because of the IED planted by militants. Military targets were also hit in Bannu and Miranshah on the same day. As if these hostile acts were not enough, TTP sprinkled salt on the wounds of the Army and the nation by owning Dir tragedy and then adding that it is on war and will continue to hit military targets. It further upped the ante by giving out pre-conditions for talks which included release of fifty prisoners and vacation of FATA by Army. Such a stance has dampened the atmosphere and dimmed the chances of peace talks.  

Sudden change in behavior of TTP leaders strengthens doubts that strings are actually in hands of some other powers who do not want peace in Pakistan. It appears that the TTP under a planned strategy is on one hand indicating its willingness to enter into peace talks and on the other it is egging on the Army to wrestle with it in NW for the decisive battle. Pretense of love for peace is aimed at gaining goodwill of the people. The other is its usual offensive stance which is real. Perhaps Hakimullah is convinced that next round will be his and he will be able to contain a corps size force if not defeat it. This self-confidence is consequent to number of factors.

One. TTP and its affiliates have succeeded in making NW a strong base and stocked sufficient war munitions. Two. His fighters have learnt lessons from SW debacle and have practiced drills and selected sites for ambushes, IEDs and raids. Three. He is confident that major operation in NW and corresponding displacement of people will antagonize Hafiz Gul Bahadur as well as Haqqanis and followers of late Maulvi Nazir in SW and impel them to join hands with TTP and put up a united fight. Four. Pakistan will lose an important Afghan ally. Five. Marrying up of these militant groups together with 69 other groups would make it into a formidable force to the tune of over 100,000 fighters. Six. Surge in attacks and government’s unconditional offer of talks has given him a notion that TTP is winning and Army losing. Seven. Further thinning of eastern front will make the task of Indian military that much easier to execute its planned limited war. Mere deployment of Indian Army along our border as was done in 2001 and in 2008 and simultaneous heating up of western border, the indication of which has been given along Zhob border, would place Pak military in a dicey situation. Eight. Twin external threat coupled with internal threat will enable TTP to negotiate from position of strength and have its demands accepted.

Rejection of talks by TTP will result in further cracking up of TTP and isolation of hard line elements led by Hakimullah and may provoke 2009 like military action. TTP tried its strength in Tirah and lost the battle. TTP’s hey days will last up to December 2014 during which it will continue to receive full quota of financial and material assistance from its patrons. Thereon, this tap will either close or may get reduced to a trickle and Haqqanis would return to Afghanistan. With US gone, TTP will not have any justification to fight the war and will lose whatever public support it has. Kashmir front may get activated thereby encouraging Jihadi groups to get deflected towards Kashmir Jihad. With ongoing development projects and creation of greater educational and job opportunities in SW, the youth in tribal belt will find militancy less attractive. Under the circumstances, it will be in fitness of things that TTP Shura should avail this God send opportunity of peace talks and get their sins washed at the earliest before the mood changes.  

The writer is a retired Brig and a defence analyst. [email protected]

                                 

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The Police Occasionally Over-reacts

Upright Opinion

September 20, 2013

 

 

Last week an unarmed man, 24-year-old Jonathan A. Ferrell seeking help after a car crash was shot 12 times by the Charlotte police officer. The incident was widely reported by the media and remained a subject of discussion for many days on the TV channels.  After the car accident the victim somehow reached a house and frantically knocked at the door for help. The inmate suspected that some burglar was trying to break in the house. She called the 911 for help that rushed to the venue. The injured person believing that police has come to his rescue, ran towards the police officers. The police officers feared that he was rushing towards them to attack. The police officer killed him with a volley of bullets.

Now this is not the first incident of its kind when police by using excessive force killed the suspect. In some cases they literally shot their target several times demonstrating what could be judged as their vengeance and excessive firepower. As such many individuals whose lives could be spared with more modest and cautious strategy lost their lives.

The traffic police tends to be mostly unforgiving and occasionally acts with unjustified vengeance. In minor cases, such as expiry of a token either of inspection or road tax, a driver with first violation could be let off with simple warning. In so many other cases where the police sergeant can take a lenient view, a heavy fine is imposed. In one of cases that I personally aware off, a person was fined $ 350 for not indicating to change the lane.

In some other cases an ignorant driver who had come to United State afresh went without realizing that a police officer wanted  him to stop. Finally when he somehow stopped, he was shown a weapon, handcuffed and nabbed with rude expletives. His case dragged for a year in the court and finally he was indicted with five years probation besides heavy fines.

In my personal case I have never committed any traffic violation. I am a senior citizen too. I pay the taxes on time. My care is new and each year I take it for inspection. I seldom over-speed. But once on Green Oaks Boulevard in Tarrant County, I was stopped by a relatively young police officer for expiry of the yearly token. He could have warned with advice to get it revalidated. He issued me a ticket and I had to go through a torturous hassle for number of days starting from the payment of tax at one office, to final stage of showing that in the court.

In Western and particularly American movies we see encounters between the police and the culprits. In most of these movies, the police exercises all options before shooting their targets. Yet in practical life we come across entirely different scenarios. The police officers, more often than not, don’t give a chance to the suspect for a dialogue or to declare their identities. Fearing a violent back lash, they prefer to kill the besieged person.

It appears that the police officers in America by and large suffer from a sense of paranoia that if they don’t kill the opponent they would be killed in return. It could also be because of having a license to kill at will. In 2012 the number of people killed by non-military law enforcement officers is approximately 587. During the ongoing year of 2013 this number thus far stands at 183. These deaths did not specify as to who was at fault: the person killed or the officer involved. Mercifully all these killings have very few names from the immigrant communities now part of the American society as citizens or with some other legal status.

I can recall one incident of the shooting of a Pakistan youth some ten years ago in Houston. The young man was speeding on one of the highways in Houston when he saw the police car following him with lights on. Instead that he should have stopped, out of sheer fear he increased the speed of his car in order to escape. The police officer called for additional help and several police car started chasing him. The hapless boy entered his garage but in the meantime the police reached his house and encircled his garage. They showered the closed garage with bullets, killing the boy who was still in the car.

In this article I am not focusing on the police brutality which is a separate subject and merits another article. I am stressing the reckless way the police some time acts to nab the culprit but eventually resorts to point blank aiming at their targets. My understanding of the combats between the violators or law breakers on one side and the police on the other is that both are under some kind of compulsive phobia that they would be killed by the combatant if they don’t preempt by shooting. Since police has more fire power, more manpower, ancillary support and organized network they invariably prevail. But it should be a prudent and preferred option if they somehow catch the culprit alive.

Even if they have to physically debilitate the target and render him or her immovable, they can shoot at the legs.  While the person would be fallen and would not able to run, they can negotiate for his surrender both physically and weapon wise. To shoot at random perceiving that he was in possession of deadly weapon and must be killed is patently use of avoidable excessive force unless dictated by an indispensable situation like facing a group of unyielding outlaws or criminals.

If police acts with patience and with a mission of using minimum force for catching a criminal, several lives can be saved. It is possible that those who would be saved can turn out to be innocents and were unwittingly caught in a bizarre situation for no willful fault.

There is need for change in the police Manuel of duties. In that the police should be trained to not use force unless it was simply unavoidable. They should try to arrest or incapacitate the criminals first and if the situation gets unwieldy and the combatants refuse to surrender then the live ammunition can be used to vanquish them.

The writer is a senior journalist, former editor of Diplomatic Times and a former diplomat

This and other articles can also be read at www.uprightopinion.com.

 

 

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