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Archive for October, 2012

India’s Cold Start is too Hot

Posted by zohaib_baqi in Defense, India, India Hall of Shame, INDIA'S HINDUISM, India's Missile Technology Proliferation, India's Nuclear Proliferation, Makaar Dushman on October 3rd, 2012

 
Based on punitive offensive operations short of nuclear attack, India’s new doctrine against Pakistan flirts with Armageddon.

The provocative Cold Start Doctrine, which India developed specifically to deal with Pakistan, is the hottest buzzword in military circles and institutions throughout the region. Both India and Pakistan are self-declared nuclear powers that, ever since the two countries’ independence from Britain in 1947, have claimed control of Kashmir. This has made the area a dangerous flashpoint several times during the past six decades.

Central to Cold Start is a synergetic effort aimed at the destruction of Pakistan’s military potential without much collateral damage. 1 Envisioning limited war, the doctrine seeks swift mobilization to undertake punitive strikes in response to acts of terrorism by Pakistan-based militant Islamist groups and incursions such as the 1999 infiltration of Kargil in India-controlled Kashmir, and/or to make territorial gains of 30-50 miles to obtain post-conflict concessions, i.e., handing over terrorists or shutting down training camps. 2 Announced in April 2004, Cold Start represents a marked departure from the fundamentally defensive orientation of the Indian Army.

The Indian military has an exasperating tendency to act quickly and decisively against Pakistan. After five gunmen attacked the Indian Parliament on 18 December 2001, the Indian government ordered Operation Parakaram, the largest mobilization since its 1971 war with Pakistan. The Indian Air Force activated forward operating bases, while the navy’s western fleet, reinforced with strike elements from the eastern fleet, deployed in a deterrent posture. 3

Nearly ten months later, Operation Parakram, a massive exercise in coercive diplomacy, had run out of steam; both sides disengaged. India lost face because of its failure to elicit any strategic gains from Pakistan. This was principally because it took more than three weeks for the three Indian strike corps to reach their wartime locations from eastern and central India. 4During this period, Pakistan was able not only to internationalize the crisis, but also to send a clear message that any attack inside the portion of Kashmir that it controlled would invite a retaliatory strike. 5

Thus for India, the drawn-out arrival time and attendant lack of strategic surprise, inhibiting a rapid punitive strike, was compounded by Pakistan’s quick marshaling of world opinion—all of which pointed to a faulty military strategy. Moreover, the enormous size of the strike corps and concentration in the forward area provided an indication of the general thrust. 6

Since the beginning of the 20th century, the U.S. maritime strategy has played a major role in binding together the international system that U.S. foreign policy has aimed to establish. Meanwhile, American naval power has maintained its country’s status “in the middle of a fluid and troubling strategic environment. The size, shape and strategy of the U.S. Navy are a critical element of America’s position as the world’s great power.” 7 But this appears to be heading for a change.

The “wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have sucked the oxygen out of any serious effort to understand the connection between the large changes that strategic planners see in the future, Americans’ expectations that they will retain their ability to wield global influence, the Navy’s role in maintaining such influence, and the U.S. fleet’s slow evanescence.” 8 A clear illustration of this was the grounding of the USS Port Royal (CG-73) in February 2009, half a mile south of the Honolulu airport. Investigations revealed a sleep-deprived commanding officer and manning shortages, as well as fewer real-life training opportunities. “Reduced budgets, efforts to save money by cutting the size of crews, schemes to take up the slack with shore services and all manner of labor saving devices parallel and reflect the Navy’s increasingly distressed fortunes since the end of the cold war.” 9

Historically, U.S. Naval Forces Central Command has been a dynamic component that ensured stability and security in the Indian Ocean. It still does so. Under the Global Maritime Partnership, it continues to “enhance regional maritime security as well as build capacity of regional maritime forces.” As a consequence, key choke points critical to world trade and economy in an area with extensive shipping lanes and a “very high vessel throughput” has remained secure from traditional and nontraditional threats. 10

On the shores of the North Arabian Sea, nuclear neighbors Pakistan and India have kept the region on high alert. The presence of the U.S. Navy has been the most compelling factor in restraining and cooling frequently exploding tempers. This has ensured stability. The eventual impact of a weakening U.S. Navy may include, but is not limited to, a major shift of power away from American influence in Asia, a debilitating loss of U.S. ability to shape the future strategic environment, and a powerful reinforcement of the perception that the United States is in decline. 11

A shrinking U.S. Navy leading to a reduced presence, along with a weakening ability to project power and provide a steadying presence, will inevitably create a void—which will be filled by the new rising naval power, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy. 12 The strategic environment in the Indian Ocean region may then be altered as never before, to the detriment of U.S. interests.

Through its launch of the nuclear submarine S-2 (the INS Arihant ), India has already militarily nuclearized the region. Because of budgetary constraints and diminishing platform strength, if the U.S. Navy should outsource functions to the Indian Navy, this will have the effect of allowing India to confer upon itself the role of regional policeman. The Pakistan and PLA navies may then forge a new strategic partnership to reshape the area’s maritime environment.

The PLA Navy may deploy more than one carrier by 2015. This will greatly expand China’s ability to project power into the Pacific and Indian oceans. In the latter, it will find no better partner than the Pakistan Navy. What the Indian strategic community continues to call the “encirclement” of India will then become a reality. At that point, not only the North Arabian Sea but the entire Indian Ocean will scream for stability.

Since 2004, the Indian military has tirelessly firmed up Cold Start through a series of exercises, including Divya Astra (Divine Weapon) 2004, Vijra Shakti (Thunder Power) 2005, Sang-i-Shakti (Joint Power) 2006, and Ashwamedh (Valor and Intellectual Illumination) 2007. They made extensive use of command, control, communications, and intelligence networks and systems; and of force-multiplying command posts for the integration and flow of real-time information collected through satellites, unmanned aerial vehicles, aerial reconnaissance radar networks, communication intercepts, and digital photographs of enemy areas. All this was transmitted to forward combat units, facilitating speedy decision-making. During the maneuvers, information dominance of the battlefield was practiced using electronic-warfare systems. 13

In stark contrast to the previous Indian strategy, that of Cold Start essentially is to attack first and mobilize later. 14 The idea is to achieve political and military gains in the shortest possible time, thus circumventing Pakistan’s effort to bring into play international diplomatic efforts. Through joint operations of India’s three services, Cold Start uses army strike corps to provide offensive elements for eight or so integrated battle groups (IBGs). These are fully backed by naval-aviation assets assisting IBGs in the south.

Positioned close to Pakistan’s borders, quite a few IBGs can be launched along multiple axes within 72 to 96 hours from the time an attack is ordered. These battle groups provide rapid thrusts at the same time as India’s defenses are still being organized. The IBGs can continue conducting high-speed day/night operations until the intended objectives have been attained. 15 In short, Cold Start envisages quickly moving forces into unpredictable locations and making decisions faster than opponents can plan. 16

Among Pakistani military insiders, Cold Start has been under discussion since 2005. But our neighbor’s aggressive strategy surfaced as a major challenge after Indian Army chief General Deepak Kapoor sounded a warning in January 2010 that “a limited war under the nuclear hangover is still very much a reality.” 17 Pakistan Army chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani responded: “Cold Start would permit the Indian Army to attack before mobilizing, increasing the possibility of a sudden spiral escalation.” 18

Be that as it may, Pakistan’s riposte to the Indian Army chief’s incendiary pronouncement came in April 2010 in the form one of the largest field maneuvers the country has ever mustered. Jointly conducted by Pakistan’s army and air force and called Azm-e-Nau 3 (New Resolve), the exercise aimed at developing response options to Cold Start. Between 10 April and 13 May, 20,000-50,000 troops participated. 19 The area involved Pakistan’s eastern border in Sialkot, Cholistan, and the province of Sindh in the south.

The scenario played out as follows: The Foxland army (representing India) suddenly invaded and occupied part of Blueland territory (Pakistan). A Blueland antitank battalion used dispersal tactics based on Pakistan’s real military doctrine to regain territory in an equally swift manner. 20 In the closing stages, live weapon demonstrations and the shoot-down of a drone were also carried out. Still, the reality of Cold Start places a dilemma before Pakistan’s military planners, as far as guessing which of India’s IBGs would be launched.

The Indian Navy’s stated role in Cold Start seemingly remains limited; ostensibly, the navy will provide aviation assets to IBGs in the southern sector only. But to complement the effort on land, and posing a multidimensional problem for Pakistani military planners, the Indian Navy will inevitably take a forward posture, possibly impose a distant blockade of Pakistani ports, and/or move into sea lines emanating from the Red Sea or Far East. The Indian Navy could deploy submarines—which soon will be armed with land-attack supersonic BrahMos cruise missiles—close to the Makran coast to clog Pakistan’s sea traffic.

The western fleet of the Indian Navy routinely conducts annual exercises in February-March in the Arabian Sea, while its eastern fleet carries out yearly maneuvers in July-August in the Bay of Bengal. When the Kargil crisis erupted in 1999, the Indian military’s tri-services exercise (conducted every three years) was due. In the interest of deterrence, its navy decided to shift the venue of the eastern fleet’s maneuvers to the western seaboard. The two fleets later conducted large-scale joint exercises in the North Arabian Sea. The sole Indian carrier was then under refit, so the navy carried out trials using a containership’s deck as a platform for Sea Harrier aircraft.

A flurry of naval activity and the Indian Navy’s threatening posture prompted the Pakistan Navy to go on full alert. Naval assets were deployed to safeguard national maritime interests. Pakistan also began escorting convoys along traditional sea lines, especially on the Persian Gulf route that transports the country’s strategic commodity—oil—indispensable for both the economy and the war effort. The navy also made plans for conducting P3-C strikes on strategic points along India’s eastern seaboard.

Visibly, the contribution of both navies during the Kargil crisis was enormous. On the Indian side, tri-service cooperation set the standard for future operations, with complete harmony and synergy between its army, navy, and air force. 21 In Cold Start, therefore, the Indian Navy cannot be expected to remain dormant or play a trivial role.

In Azm-e-Nau 3, the Pakistan Navy was assigned the inconsequential role of observer. If continued, such a course could be a fatal mistake. Pakistan cannot afford to overlook the lessons of the past. This nation’s air force and navy learned of the Kargil conflict only after the Indian military reaction had started to unfold. By then it had become indispensable for Pakistan’s army to seek the sudden support of the nation’s two other armed forces.

Even though features inherent to naval platforms, such as rapid mobility, stealth, and speed of deployment, may discount the need for a joint response (at least for the exercises), fixations on modus operandi and clinging to dogmas have destroyed many militaries before.

Because Pakistan inherited a British colonial legacy, the army has dominated the country during much of its history. Past wars with India have been mostly land affairs, with Pakistan suffering severe setbacks because of a weak navy. Yet the army’s mindset remains unchanged. In this climate, the Pakistan Navy strives to demonstrate the significance of maritime issues in the overall national-security calculus.

Aside from its deficiently assigned role in Azm-e-Nau 3, the Pakistan Navy remains fully cognizant of the threat that the Indian Navy could pose in the maritime domain during Cold Start. Accordingly, a major conceptual exercise designed to assess this, evaluate possible scenarios of conflict at sea, and analyze response options was concluded in late 2010. 22Named Shamsheer-e-Bahr IV (Sea Sword), the exercise addressed the new Indian warfighting concept and aimed to prepare a comprehensive counter-strategy.

Spread over two and a half months, the war game was planned sequentially, from peace to full-war scenario—particularly in the southern sector of the country bordering India. Lessons emerging from this effort will be applied in the subsequent Navy-wide exercise Sea Spark to develop Pakistan’s future naval strategy. To inject realism and draw useful information, from the outset the 5th Corps of the Pakistan Army (with its area of operation in the south) and the Pakistan Air Force (Southern Air Command) have been actively involved in the planning effort. Also included are several other representatives of relevant government departments.

No future war can be fought without operational synergy, and a military strategy that does not assimilate this reality will always fail. In Cold Start, a north-south split of Pakistan could occur in the event of a penetration by an IBG positioned in the south. The country’s military planners must think beyond using tactical nuclear weapons. This is imperative: Indian nuclear doctrine is unambiguous in declaring that even a low-yield tactical nuclear weapon will invite a massive retaliatory strike. 23But Pakistan certainly has some other and better response options to consider.

The Pakistan Navy can play a vital role in the south. It can create diversions and fire effects using submarines and air-launched missiles, while protecting sea lines, in particular the Gulf artery that feeds national energy needs. Besides contesting a blockade, the navy could force a counter-blockade of vital Indian shipping by jutting out from the Strait of Hormuz and hugging Pakistan’s western periphery on the Makran coast. Submarines could be deployed at or close to India’s strategic energy and commercial nodes along the Gujarat-Maharashtra coast, causing economic problems. 24 All this would greatly ease Pakistan’s army and air force concerns on land and improve flexibility and liberty of action.

More than 70 percent of Indian oil imports come into ports on the Gujarat and Maharashtra coasts. In 2006-07, 117 million tons of petroleum products passed through the Gulf of Kutch; 95 through Mumbai. India’s major oil refineries are also located in the region. Kandla Port, close to Karachi, handles the imports and exports of highly productive granaries and the industrial belt stretching across Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Rajasthan, and Gujarat.

At the inaugural session of exercise Shamsheer-e-Bahr-IV early in July 2010, Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani of Pakistan stated: “Prosperity of our people hinges upon the freedom of the sea and security of our sea lines of communication. Notwithstanding its small size, the Pakistan Navy has maintained a close vigilance of the seas and is fully capable of protecting our maritime interests.” 25 Cold Start is based on undertaking offensive operations short of the nuclear threshold. India thereby implies that should Pakistan opt for crossing that threshold, the onus would lie squarely on the latter.

On the other hand, Pakistan’s assumptions about Cold Start are that Indian offensive operations would not give Pakistan time to bring diplomacy into play, and that such offensive operations would not cross the nuclear threshold nor prompt Pakistan into crossing it. But with Pakistan’s core areas (particularly those in the plains of Punjab) located close to borders and conventional asymmetry favoring India, Cold Start is an exceedingly ambitious and dangerous concept. The fact that the Pakistan Army can occupy contested locations faster than India grants it the capability of preempting Cold Start.

Since time and space would be of greatest importance to Pakistan, if this nation does not preempt India’s Cold Start, the result could be a decision to use low-yield tactical nuclear weapons to dislodge the IBG. And this would be the beginning of Armageddon. The fact that India’s new doctrine was not put into effect following 26/11 (the Mumbai attacks) points to dithering politico-military minds as much as it does to the danger of actually executing a not-so-cold plan.

1. “India’s Cold Start Strategy: Limited Strikes against Targets vs. Hot War Leading to Nuclear Armageddon,” 6 January 2010, http://pakalert.wordpress.com/2010/01/06/india .

2. “Pakistan’s Ongoing Azm-e-Nau-3 Military Exercises Define Strategic Priorities,” Intelligence Quarterly , 6 July 2010,www.intelligencequarterly.com/2010/05 .

3. Lt. Gen. Y. M. Bammi, Kargil 1999: The Impregnable Conquered (Dehra Dun: Natraj Publishers), p. 436, 439.

4. “A Challenging Doctrine,” Daily Dawn , 8 February 2010, http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/the-newspa… .

5. “Pakistan Forces Put on High Alert: Storming of Parliament,” Daily Dawn , 15 December 2001,http://www.dawn.com/2001/12/15/top1.htm .

6. “A Challenging Doctrine.”

7. Seth Cropsey, “The U.S. Navy in Distress,” Strategic Analysis 34, no. 1 (January 2010), p. 36.

8. Ibid.

9. Ibid., p. 35.

10. COMUSNAVCENT, VADM William E. Gortney, “Global Maritime Partnership,” talk delivered at Pakistan Navy War College, Lahore, 7 April 2010.

11. Cropsey, “The U.S. Navy in Distress,” p. 37.

12. Ibid., p. 43.

13. “Cold-Starting Pakistan,” Daily News , 22 January 2009, http://www.thenews.com.pk/print1.asp?id=158401 .

14. “Cold Start and Azm-e-Nau,” Daily Dawn , 26 April 2010, http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/the-newspa… .

15. “A Challenging Doctrine.”

16. Ikram Sehgal, “War-Gaming Nuclear Armageddon,” http://www.opfblog.com/6591/war-gaming-nuclear-armageddon-ikram-sehgal/ .

17. Maleeha Lodhi, “India’s Provocative Military Doctrine,” Daily News , 5 January 2010,http://www.thenews.com.pk/print1.asp?id=216861 .

18. “Kayani Spells Out Threat Posed by Indian Doctrine,” Daily Dawn , 4 February 2010,http://pakistankakhudahafiz.wordpress.com/2010/02/04/kayani-spells-out-t… .

19. Daily Dawn , 11 April 2010, http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/the-newspa… and “Pakistan’s Ongoing Azm-e-Nau-3 Military Exercises Define Strategic Priorities,” Intelligence Quarterly , 6 July 2010,www.intelligencequarterly.com/2010/05

20. Ibid.

21. Bammi, Kargil 1999 , p. 440.

22. Pakistan Navy, Directorate of Public Relations, press release, 29 June 2010.

23. “Cold Start Doctrine,” Daily Dawn , 18 May 2010, http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/the-newspa…

24. VADM P. S. Das, “Coastal and Maritime Security,” Indian Defense Review 24, no. 1 (Jan.­-Mar. 2009), p. 125. VADM Arun Kumar Singh, “Peep at the Nautical Crystal Ball,” Indian Defense Review 23, no. 1 (Jan.-Mar. 2008),http://www.indiandefencereview.com/2010/07/peep-at-the-nautical-crystal-… . Asia TradeHub.com KANDLA PORThttp://www.asiatradehub.com/india/portkandla.asp .

25. “Credible Deterrence Important, Says PM,” Daily Dawn , 13 July 2010, http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/the-newspa… .

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Pakistan Navy successfully test-launches SAMs

Posted by Dr. Manzer Durrani in Defense on October 3rd, 2012

Pakistan Navy successfully test-launches SAMs

 

ISLAMABAD – The Pakistan Navy successfully test fired a combination of surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) on Saturday, said a statement.

Carried out in coastal area of Makran, the tests aimed to assess the air-defence capabilities of the navy during its annual maritime exercise, Seaspark-12. The missiles precisely hit their targets, the statement said.

Naval Chief Admiral Asif Sandila, who witnessed the tests, said these had fortified the defence of the country’s coastal line. “These weapons give the Pakistan Navy the flexibility to operate the various missiles and strengthen the country’s ground-based air defence.”

Reiterating that the navy was not oblivious to the security of its maritime borders, Sandila added it would take all possible steps for the sake of the country defence.

“It should be the prime objective of all of us to ensure that resources and assets which the nation provided us at the cost of many other important needs were put to the best use for achieving the maximum operational effectiveness,” the navy chief asserted.  The firing drills are part of the navy’s initiative to evaluate and improve its firepower capabilities.

The area of responsibility of the navy’s Air Defence Battalion stretches from Sir Creek in the east to Jiwani in the west and these modern weapons and equipment will augment the PN’s ground-based air defence capabilities against aircraft and missiles, the statement added.

 

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Reflections on Balochistan

Posted by Dr. Manzer Durrani in India on October 3rd, 2012

COMMENTARY
KHURRAM SHAIKH
Pakistan media particularly, the US sponsored GEO is promoting seccessionists and lionizing Baloch Sardars as freedom fighters. GEO received bulk of the $50 Million from the recent grant by the US. India is behind destabilization of Balochistan. India does not realize that this meddling can come to bite India in the form of a Nuclear War. any attack on Balochistan will be construed as attack on Pakistan’s sovereignty and will be dealt with full might of Pakistan’s Armed Forces, including the Strategic Forces. This not a “gurya-guddi ka khel,” India beware that he whole Hindu cult could be wiped out in such an eventuality.


Balochistan: An attractive target


The reason why foreign powers get attracted towards Balochistan is because of its strategic importance and wealth. It has Makran coastline in the south, which connects it with Iran in the southwest and Afghanistan in the northwest. It has a seaport at Gawadar that was built by China. Gawadar along Makran coastline lies at the opening of Strait of Hormuz. Balochistan has huge quantities of natural gas, and unexplored oil reserves apart from gold, copper and variety of other costly mineral resources. More importantly US want to control the port of Gawadar, and eventually start its dream oil pipeline from Central Asia through Afghanistan.

In 2006, Carnegie Institute of International Peace identified Balochistan as an area of interest for the US in subverting Pakistan. Selig Harrison in a seminar held in Washington recently stated, “The US is ready to recognize independent Balochistan because it serves American interests; its accession to Pakistan was not legitimate; Pak Army is a suppressing force; Zardari government’s policies have further ignited separatist movement; four million insurgent Baloch people want independent state of Balochistan”. Declan Walsh of Britain unveiled international conspiracy cooking up in Balochistan. RAW run South Asian Analysis Group (SAAG) website openly claims India’s involvement in Balochistan and equates it with Kashmir.
Balochistan: Heart of Pakistan

Balochistan is the largest province of Pakistan in terms of area and it covers almost 48% of Pakistan’s area. But its population accounts for only 5% of the total population of Pakistan. Ethnically Balochistan is divided into Balochis and Pathans, followed by other small minorities.
The state capital is Quetta, (termed as nerve center of Afghan Taliban by US Generals who allege that Mullah Omar led Shura is based in that region). From among the Baloch tribes, Magsis and Jamalis are relatively prosperous while all other Baloch tribes are backward and poverty ridden. Among the Sardars, Bugti and Marri Sardars are the most ruthless. Bugtis and Marris being neighbors have remained arch rivals. Their marrying up in 2004 was out of political expediency and the US influence. Mengals command influence over largest part of Baloch populated Balochistan and are in commanding position to either keep the pot of Balochistan simmering or defuse it.
Balochistan like, Afghanistan and Tribal Areas of Pakistan is a tribal society. Baloch Sardars (tribal chiefs) rule their respective tribes, often with serious disregard for human rights. Development wise, Balochistan is the most backward province in Pakistan. There may be some weight in the argument that the federal government in Pakistan has neglected the development of Balochistan, but equal responsibility lies with the Baloch Sardars who enjoy immense power in their tribes. Sitting in provincial and national parliaments, they don’t work for the development of their own people. Among the Sardars, handful of dissident Baloch Sardars have never reconciled to the amalgamation of Balochistan into Pakistan and have always looked for outside help to make Balochistan independent.
Balochistan has the worst human rights record out of all the provinces of Pakistan. Every time horrific human rights atrocities are committed in Balochistan, tribal chiefs defend the abuses by claiming them to be part of their tribal cultural norms. Since the independence of Pakistan, most of the tribes have accepted Pakistan as their homeland and have tried to come into the mainstream Pakistani society. But Bugti and Marri tribal leaders have always been a source of trouble for Pakistan. Brahamdagh Bugti (grandson of former Bugti tribe leader and former chief minister of Balochistan, Nawab Akbar Bugti) is the leader of a runaway terrorist group, the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA). He has till recent been operating out of Kandahar. Before Brahamdagh, Balach Marri, son of Nawab Khair Baksh Marri, was leader of BLA, and he was killed in Afghanistan in 2007. Brahamdagh has now shifted to Switzerland and continue to badmouth Pakistan.
A new dirty game of geo-politics is going on in full swing in Balochistan. To understand the ongoing wave of violence in Balochistan we must understand the vested interests in Balochistan. The root cause of violence in Balochistan is not internal poverty or lack of development but the covert operations of foreign intelligence agencies. Internal issues might act as catalysts to inflame the situation but the root cause is foreign interference in internal affairs of Balochistan. The main group responsible for violence in Balochistan is the BLA. Brahamdagh Bugti, in his interview with Pakistani news channel AAJ TV declared that he will attack and kill non-Baloch population of Balochistan. In other words he threatened killing of innocent Pakistani civilians on ethnic lines. This is just taking words out of Col Ralph Peter’s plan for balkanization of Pakistan, along the lines of Yugoslavia (June 2006 issue of ‘The US Armed Forces Journal’). His article ‘Blood Borders’ envisaged redrawing map of countries in the Middle East in accordance with oil and gas contents of various regions. The map showed truncated Pakistan with Greater Balochistan as a separate state. The contents of this article were included in a course run at US military academies. Brahamdagh also asked for support of India and other powers to help him break away Pakistan’s Balochistan. Lashkar-e-Jhangvi is affiliated with BLA, al-Qaeda and TTP and has taken upon itself to target Hazaras in Quetta.
After the termination of Bugti-Marri led insurgency from 1974 to 1978, Balochistan remained peaceful till such time Gen Pervez Musharraf took over power and decided to remove its socio-politico-economic deprivations through mega projects and other development works, which went against the vested interests of Sardars. Development of Gawadar deep seaport and construction of water dams were aimed at alleviating the poverty of the province and bringing the neglected province into socio-economic mainstream.
Commencement of work on several mega projects in Balochistan caused deep resentment to Akbar Bugti and other troublesome Sardars as well as to the US harbouring ill designs against Balochistan. The coercive Sardars who had kept their respective tribes in bondage viewed development works in interior Balochistan a threat to their Sardari system. On one hand they aired political and economic grievances and on the other they objected to the mega projects vehemently. They propagated that Gawadar Port would be monopolised by the affluent class from other provinces at the cost of people of Balochistan. Opening of schools and colleges and development of road infrastructure in rural areas was also resented. Anti-development stance contradicted their earlier stance that Balochistan being the biggest province and rich in resources had been kept backward and neglected.
At the behest of foreign powers that had deep-seated interest in the province, Nawab Bugti who was already miffed over gas royalty issue, kindled insurgency in Dera Bugti in 2004 which later spread to other Baloch inhabited regions of Sui, Kahan, Kohlu, Kalat, Turbat, Khuzdar, Panjgur, Pasni, Lasbella, Awaran, Kharan, Machh, Dhadhar, Sibi, Dera Allah Yar, Dera Murad Jamali and also to Quetta city. Terrorists targeted gas pipelines, electric grid stations and pylons, railway lines, security check posts, military convoys, passenger trains and buses. 65 Farari camps were made operational by foreign agencies in interior Balochistan to train and launch terrorists. Kohlu was attacked with rockets when Musharraf was addressing the people and helicopter carrying IGFC was hit by bullets, injuring the general officer. When the insurgency assumed dangerous proportions, a military operation had to be launched in mid 2006 in selective troubled areas. Most of the 65 Farari camps were dismantled during the six-month operation. Death of Akbar Bugti in his mountain hideout in August 2006 further intensified the insurgency, which was supported by RAW, RAAM and Mossad from Afghanistan and CIA and MI-6 from within.
Continuous funding and material and moral support by foreign governments and agencies to the dissidents in Balochistan together with policy of softness adopted by the elected government has converted the insurgency into separatist movement. Pressure exerted by foreign powers together with human rights activists, NGOs and foreign/local media forced the military to return to barracks and hand over dual internal and border security charge to Frontier Corps (FC). Farari camps that were destroyed have become functional again. In 2009, a deadline was given by BLA to non-Baloch settlers to quit Balochistan or be prepared to get killed. On 29 March 2012 Nawab Khair Bux Marri demanded that all (Persian speaking) Hazaras being settlers from Afghanistan since the British period should leave as should Punjabis, or else, they would be killed.
The FC is now in the firing line and demand for its withdrawal from counter insurgency operations is getting louder. After airing grievances over political disempowerment, distribution of federal budget, political autonomy, control over provincial natural resources, the thrust has shifted towards target killings of nationalists, missing persons, mutilated bodies, military cantonments, and trial of Musharraf. The FC and ISI are being accused in the case of missing persons. While Punjabis have vacated Baloch inhabited regions and shifted to Quetta and other provinces, large numbers of Hazaras have been killed. Killing of ten Pakhtun labourers in Mastung on 13 September 2012, which was claimed by United Baloch Liberation Army, has been resented by the Pashtuns who are otherwise complaining of political inequities. It has added to the Pakhtun-Baloch divide.
Encouraged by foreign powers, the fugitive Baloch leaders are now demanding independence. Sardars Brahamdagh Bugti, Harbyar Marri, Suleiman Khan and Dr Wahid Baloch are promoting the idea of independent Balochistan. Three US Republicans moved a highly controversial bill in the Congress which supported the cause of Baloch separatists. The US Congress Committee on Foreign Affairs chaired by Dana Rohrabacher on February 8, 2012, advocated right of self-determination for the Baloch and championed the cause of independent Balochistan. He pleaded the case of the Baloch saying that they were natural allies of USA who would gladly share the mineral resources of Balochistan and would let the US run Gawadar Port. Christine Fair was the only one to shun the notion of independent Balochistan. She asserted that it was unsustainable because of ethnic diversity and geographic constraints. Congress support has further emboldened anti-Pakistan Baloch Sardars to spew out poison against Pakistan.
Issue of missing persons in Balochistan was drummed up under a calculated scheme. The US, the West and India helped in internationalizing it and coaxing the UN team to visit Pakistan and carryout ground assessment. Our government instead of forbidding the team welcomed it and facilitated its visit to Balochistan. It is still not clear who invited the UN delegation. Talal Bugti presented the visitors a list of 638 missing persons and demanded UN intervention. This is a very sinister move and seems that the schemers are feeling confident that the endgame has begun. Our leadership and the media are either a party or are criminally negligent. We must not forget that this was exactly the same framework used by the UN to intervene in Sudan, Indonesia and other countries. A UN mandated case against Pakistan is now being hatched by our adversaries and our leaders have helped them in putting Pakistan in awkward situation and in paving the way for propaganda hell to break loose once this team returns and hands over a jaundiced report.
Although the armed forces are doing an excellent work in motivating the misled Baloch youth by undertaking host of development works and spreading education in interior Balochistan, however, the provincial government mired in corruption and lacking political will and commitment to redress law and order is a huge disappointment. While the US resolution moved by Rohrabacher has not been condemned by Balochistan Assembly, Federal government is appeasing the rebels and ignoring the patriots and so is our media. Despite its policy of appeasement, the government has failed to woo back the dissidents. Law courts have so far not convicted any terrorist nabbed by security forces while no effort has been made to expose involvement of RAW in Balochistan about which the government claims that it has undeniable proofs.
Baloch nationalism is assuming dangerous proportions because of heavy involvement of foreign agencies and deleterious role of dissident Baloch Sardars who are prepared to go to any extent to save their Sardari system. However, they are not making any headway since the people of Balochistan do not subscribe to their separatist ideas. The Baloch neither represent the whole of Balochistan nor do they have sizeable following. The Pashtuns, Brahvis and Hazaras in Balochistan comprise 60% of the province and are averse to the idea of independence and fully support the federation. Majority of Baloch are patriots and loyal to the federation and the youth have started joining cadet colleges and taking up service in armed forces in great numbers.

The problem for US is that BLA together with BRA and BLF with no more than 3500 fighters are not able to break away Balochistan from Pakistan. Of the 8 million population of Balochistan, 3.5 million are Baloch and among them the trouble makers supporting the terrorist groups are about 3-5 lacs only. They don’t even have support of 10% Balochi population. With this narrow support base confined to limited space, the dissidents are neither capable of building mass movement nor have the ability to defeat the security forces. That is why their exiled leaders keep urging foreign powers to step in and make Balochistan an independent state as had been done in former East Pakistan in 1971.

The Pakistan Army and ISI are resisting the assault in national and strategic interests of Pakistan. The Great Game of Brzezinski will surely continue in Balochistan and rest of Pakistan. The people of Pakistan are ready to counter this great game but need leadership and some courage. Among the array of politicians, Nawaz Sharif has better equation with dissident Sardars like Khair Bux Marri and Akhtar Mengal and even with Mahmud Achakzai who is a popular leader among the Pashtuns of Balochistan. The other party is Imran Khan led Tehrik-e-Insaf (TI) whose agenda of eliminating corruption within 90 days, strict accountability and delivering equitable justice has appealed to the senses of masses. It is opined that if any of the two parties gain power in next elections, it will be in a better position to normalize the situation in Balochistan. It will be ideal if the two together with Jamaat-e-Islami marry up and form a coalition government. Unity of the three will be the only way to prevent PPP from getting re-elected in 2013. However, so far, much to the delight of the PPP, the TI and PML-N are on a self-destructive warpath, while Zardari is employing variety of tricks to postpone the elections for another year, or how to win the next elections by hook or crook.
Feeling the pulse of the people, exiled Gen Musharraf is suggesting an interim government of top class technocrats for three years to cleanse the rot, carryout suitable amendments in the constitution to correct the anomalies in sham democracy and ensure growth of true democracy, and then hold fair and free elections under the supervision of the Army and judiciary. He prods the judiciary to marry up with the Army and play its role in getting rid of the gang of corrupt and save the country rather than the constitution. He gave an example of his first three years tenure in which his selected technocrats had made substantial progress in all the fields. There is no denying the fact that Field Marshal Ayub Khan, Gen Ziaul Haq and Gen Musharraf were competent rulers and had lifted the GDP to over 7% because of superior governance and dedicated approach. Their performance declined after the induction of politicians in the government. Though I do not hold high opinion about Gen Musharraf, however, his suggestions need to be critically examined and pondered over. Team of spotless technocrats led by Imran Khan assisted by honest and hard nose provincial governors like Nawab of Kalabagh, Lt Gen Azam Khan and Air Marshal Nur Khan will be most desirable to cleanse the stables. In order to cure the diseases, the surgeon’s knife rather than treating the symptoms must dig deep down to remove the malignant part of the body.
The writer is a retired Brig, a columnist, defence analyst and historian. Email: [email protected]

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PAKISTANI TERRORIST HIDING IN BRITAIN : “Altaf Hussain of MQM, alias “Osama bin Ladin of Pakistan,” has murdered more people than OBL .”

Posted by Dr. Manzer Durrani in Corruption on October 3rd, 2012

Altaf Hussain

Altaf Hussain, a stupid bastard who’s complete name is Syed Altaf Hussain Jaffery, is a shiya muslim political leader who faces murder charges in Pakistan. It is perhaps ironic that MQM holds many seats in the current government at the same time when their party leader is in exile. Altaf holds British nationality, he has taken British nationality which is unique as he is the only Pakistani politician to take foreign citizenship, although many have remained in exile. And look at him that even after becoming UK national, majority of Pakistanis in Karachi praise him and think of him as a good person, which in fact proves that Pakistanis have in essence become eunuchs and stupid fools.
In his rise to power, army and Gen. Zia-ul-Haq played an important role. Afterwards MQM turned into semi mafia group and in the late 1990s it fully transformed into a mafia group and it is very rare in Pakistan that a mafia group  holds power in the government taking hostage of entire Sindh province specially Karachi.

Even Pakistan’s army is powerless in front of this mafia group led by Altaf as many army officers were brutally murdered in various torture cells of  MQM, their bodies were even drilled though but look at our army people they now praise this traitor of Pakistan. I guess the Pakistan army has become eunuch now a days.

Altaf is associated with ordering many political murders and using torture, on civilians and opposition party members, to spread his ideology during his time in power. He is commonly blamed for the unrest Pakistan suffered during this period.  He often arranges public video conference speeches in Pakistan to try and gain support for himself. He is known for his outrages and “un-leader-like” behavior. His almost comical appearances and statements during interviews have led to declining support for his party. As a person he is commonly ridiculed and has fallen out of respect with the vast majority of people of Pakistan.

Altaf Hussain also sends out regular statements and makes his views heard on international TV interviews. All this he does by spending money that his thugs collect in Karachi at gun point and with threats.

I wish that he should die a dog’s death in the street. Lets see when Allah will make him an example for other people like him.

Petition to British Government to Kick Pakistan’s No.1 Terrorist Out and Hand 

This is stated with very great disappointment and displeasure to remind regarding an International Terror Master who is also the leader of fascist party MQM (now Mutahidda Qaumi Mahaz; previously Mohajir Qaumi Movement), a Pakistani fugitive who is enjoying protection in UK and you have protected and covered him under Your Own Wings, his name is Altaf Hussain. 

Target Killing and Mass Murdering is the mission of Altaf and MQM at large. Keeping with his terrorist traditions and mission, Altaf Hussain master-minded and then micro-managed the slaughter of more than 40 innocent people of Karachi. Altaf Hussain is carrying out all his sadistic urges from the comforts of his office in London using his Sofa and a Telephone, according to Daily Telegraph London, May14, 2007 issue. 

The man in charge of Pakistan’s largest city, Karachi, was at his usual command-and-control post at the weekend from a sofa in north London. 
As his fiefdom descended into brutal violence, with the deaths of at least 40 people reported amid the worst political bloodshed Pakistan has witnessed in years, Altaf Hussain directed his followers by telephone from a safe place more than 5,000 miles away. 
His headquarters, or “international secretariat”, is not in the Pakistani port city but housed in a red-brick office block opposite a supermarket on Edgware High Street 

We therefore assert that the British government, supporting the so-called war against terror, would do well to look into its own backyard as to how one of its adopted citizens, enjoying its protection has unleashed terror in a city thousands of miles away. The UK government may obtain transcripts of Altaf Hussains telephonic conversations a week before 12 May, when the wanton killing occurred, and a week later to ascertain how deeply he was involved in the heinous crimes in Karachi. 

Peace loving people in Britain and around the world want to know how you make a difference between Osama Bin Laden and Altaf Hussin. Since you are so sure that Osama has used Afghanistan and has carried out attacks against innocent civilians in NY, USA. What Altaf Hussain is doing? Its OK for him to use his base-camp in London and carry out attacks against innocent Pakistani civilians? Its OK as far he doesnt wear a Turban and keep a Muslims Style beard and does not say the name of God before killing? 

Altaf Hussain has killed people like Hakim Saeed, the former governor of Sindh (Pakistan), the founder of Hamdard University and many other renowned institutions. His only crime was, he did not bow down to Altaf Hussain and rejected his philosophy of violence, killing and mass murdering. He was an Indian Migrant to Pakistan, as the parents of Altaf were. 

Altaf assassinated Salah-u-Din, the chief editor of weekly Takbber. His crime was exposing the crimes of Altaf et al. He had the same ethnic background as Altaf Hussain has. They also have got the “credit” for killing a US Counselor in the port city of Karachi. These are just few examples of Altaf et als heinous crimes against opponents and political rivals besides hundred and thousands other target killing and mass murdering. 

Altaf safely escaped two times form the reach of justice to UK, through the help of the notorious and ever infamous Pakistani Secret Service Agency ISI, who are the real founders of this Gang. Now Altafs criminal gang is a partner in Government with the current military dictator Parvez Musharaf. A proven criminal and Altafs right hand person is the governor of Sindh Province. They also have the local government in the city of Karachi, (many thanks to the Military). Musharf phones and takes dictation from Altaf. The question is what fears Altaf going back to Pakistan to make speeches in the public instead of using his London office telephone. 

People around the world are rightly wondering that how a former Chicago Cabby driver, who lost his refuge claim in the US, successfully became a UK citizen. Why British authorities turn their eyes blind at him? How you can deny that UK is not a safe haven for Terrorists and International Criminals. 

Peace-loving People throughout the world rightly consider the UK government an accomplice to Altaf Hussains crimes against innocent Pakistanis. We wonder how the British would have reacted were such a man to sit outside and trigger mayhem inside the UK? We also wonder to know how Altaf live like a King in London. Where is the money coming from? His private life is more luxurious and comfortable than any other average British citizen. Your government never got a chance to think about that? 

Honourable British PM! 

Take a chance and click the following web link just for reference purpose: 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MQM 

International organizations such as the UNHCR and the United States Department of State have cited examples of MQM’s perceived involvement in terrorism” 

We demand of the British government that Altaf Hussain be expelled from the United Kingdom, Freeze MQM (Altaf) bank accounts and declare MQM (Altaf) as a terrorist organization. 

Better late than never done. 

Thank you.

http://www.petitiononline.com/altaf/petition.html

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Indians project Quaid-e-Azam as a communalist

Posted by Dr. Manzer Durrani in India on October 3rd, 2012



In order to hide their crimes and to distort historical facts, Indian historians and political leaders have chosen to paint Quaid-e-Azam as the ‘villain of the piece’. The Indians propagate the theme that ‘Muhammad Ali Jinnah was a communalist responsible for the bloody break up of Pakistan. He founded a theocratic and non-secular State’. The BJP and other Hindu hardliners even now accuse him of leading a communal agitation to achieve the goal of Pakistan. This is travesty of history and negation of facts that prove beyond doubt that Partition was a legitimate and democratic outcome of the collective choice made by all Muslims and Hindus of the subcontinent. They conveniently and deliberately close their eyes to the hard fact that politics, not religion led to creation of Pakistan . Acceptance of Cabinet Mission Plan by Jinnah in 1946 demonstrated his earnestness for amicably resolving the communal problem. It was Nehru and his Congress colleagues who wasted that opportunity and dug the last nail in the coffin of united India .  Nehru’s and other Indian leaders’ acts of commission and omission are far too many and have already been narrated by historians.
Indian passions flowing from distorted historiography notwithstanding, the Quaid was as tall a man as history has ever carried. His penetrating vision had room for a united India but he simultaneously foresaw the dangers of unrelenting Congress led Hindu domination. Congress confirmed his fears. He knew parting was inevitable. After the Congress had rejected the Cabinet Mission Plan, the Congress was the first to sign the Act of Partition. The Muslim League signed it subsequently. In the backdrop of these crystal clear historical facts, how come Quaid is being blamed by certain segments of Indian society? The blame rests squarely on the shoulders of Gandhi, Nehru and Patel who deliberately turned the course of history. It is naïve to dub Pakistan as a theocratic State if it came into existence as a result of the intransigence of a ‘majority’ that preferred partition over granting the ‘minority’ it’s due rights and proportionate share.
Nirad Chaudhri, in the second volume of his autobiography “Thy Hand, Great an Arch” observed, “I must set down at this point that Jinnah is the only man who came out with success and honor from the ignoble end of the British Empire in India. He never made a secret of what he wanted, never prevaricated, never compromised, and yet succeeded in inflicting unmitigated defeat on the British Government and the Indian National Congress. He achieved something, which not even he could have believed to be within reach in 1946”. Former Advocate General of Maharashtra H.M. Seervai exonerates Jinnah and holds mainly the Indian National Congress responsible for Partition. In his book “Partition of India: Legend and Reality”, Seervai maintains, “It is a little unfortunate that those who assail Jinnah for destroying the unity of India do not ask how it was that a man who wanted a nationalist solution till as late as 1938, when he was 61 years of age, suddenly became a communalist”.
While the entire Indian leadership was involved in the bloodletting of migrating Muslims in India at the time of Partition, Pakistan’s violent birth did not embitter the unbending Quaid. Even after the holocaust he stood by his principles, as his August 11, 1947, address to Pakistan’s Constituent Assembly demonstrated. He had pleaded for equality of all the citizens in the eyes of the State and freedom of worship for all citizens irrespective of their religion, caste or creed. He never uttered any single statement of settling of scores or vengeance. He sought peace and good neighborly relations with India. Even Quaid’s most diehard critics had to admit that he was a man of the highest standard of probity and honor.
For the first time in the hate-filled history of India, an ardent Hindu nationalist L.K. Advani, President of BJP, not only heaped lavish praises upon Quaid during his official visit to Pakistan in the first week of June 2005, but also astonished the Pakistanis and his fellow countrymen by saying that Jinnah was not communal but secular and that Partition was an unalterable reality of history. This visible change occurred probably because of the immense warmth and hospitality that he got both from official and private circles. This was in spite of his past tainted record of being a hardcore RSS activist, firebrand Muslim basher and reportedly involved in the assassination attempt on Muhammad Ali Jinnah.
After becoming BJP President in 1986, he was in the forefront to inflame communalism in India. He led Ram Rath Yatra in 1990, spearheaded the Ram Janambhoomi movement that ended in the destruction of Babri mosque and said that he was not ashamed of it. He condoned Gujarat pogrom in 2001, vociferously pleaded Hindutva as the basis of nationhood and Hindu cultural nationalism and ruined Agra Summit. His pronouncements jolted the age-old concept of Akhand Bharat feverishly pursued by the Indian nationalist leaders and incensed one-nation theory advocates to an extent that they demanded his resignation if not his head.

The soothing statements given by Advani which were music for Pakistanis were severely criticized by Hindu extremist groups RSS, Sangh Parivar and VHP. It clearly showed that hard-line Hindus who have a lot of say in Indian politics have not accepted Pakistan. Going by the track record of Indian leaders, they have a reputation of backtracking, breaking promises, brazenly uttering falsehoods and above all past masters in deception and intrigue. It was indeed hard to digest such a radical overnight change from a political diehard like Advani. If this change of heart had taken place out of noble sentiments and not political expediency, it was indeed a very good omen. It was the first drop of affection that had dropped on the soil of Pakistan and it was ardently hoped that this drop would soon convert into a river of love and affection to submerge the clouds of mistrust and communal hatred once and for all. It was a first attempt to cut the umbilical cord of communal abhorrence, intrinsically woven with Indo-Pakistan hostility.

It did not take long to discern the real purpose as to why he admired the Quaid so profusely. It triggered a heated debate on Mr. Jinnah in India as well in Pakistan aimed at undermining his standing as a larger-than-life hero and leader. It gave strength to secularists in Pakistan who have always considered Quaid a secular and offended the sensibilities of those who regard him as a forward looking Islamist. The debate generated in India exposed how history is interpreted to suit expeditious and competing political designs and how widespread is antagonistic view across various divides in India about Mr. Jinnah and creation of Pakistan.

Advani was in a position to bring a change in the mindsets of hardliners that he commands. Jaswant Singh’s book was another attempt to wash away perception in Pakistan that all Hindu Indians hate Quaid-e-Azam and Pakistan. However, later events have proved that Hindu extremism and hatred of Pakistan is increasing rather than decreasing. Indo-Pak peace treaty signed in January 2004 and resumption of composite dialogue to resolve all contentious issues including Kashmir dispute was a big trap to numb the senses of our leaders so that it could activate the eastern front for cultural onslaught and show the soft face of India and to weaken the morals of the youth; and to use Afghan soil for covert war to destabilize Pakistan. Peace mantra was sung to buy time to build series of dams over Rivers Chenab, Jhelum and Indus to dry up Pakistan. Having inflicted substantial damage through patronized terrorism and subversion, it removed its masked of friendship and came out in true colors after the Mumbai attacks. India’s latest snare is the trade offer aimed at giving a deathblow to our industries. It is expectantly waiting for the Pak Army to get snared in North Waziristan so that it could exercise its military option. Yet we foolishly keep falling into India’s deadly embrace whenever it smiles at us captivatingly under the happy premise that this time it will not harm us.

The writer is a retired Brig and a defence analyst. Email: [email protected]

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