Tuesday, 15 June 2010 16:53
Written by Praful Bidwai, Tehelka.com
Agni failure exposes DRDO’s flaws
ISRO’s failed GSLV launch is forgivable compared to the Agni-III debacle, which is just one in a line of many a failed DRDO project. It is time to promote accountability, writes Praful Bidwai
It is no more than a mere coincidence that two delivery vehicle launches by India — of the intermediate-range Agni-III ballistic missile, and the Indian Space Research Organisation’s (ISRO) Geostationary Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV) carrying the Insat-4c communications satellite — should have failed on two consecutive days. But it would be wrong to put the two in the same category or infer a causal link between them.
Put bluntly, ISRO’s failure was, relatively speaking, an “honourable” one — not unexpected in the high-risk satellite-launch business. The Agni-III crash, by contrast, highlights serious, structural problems within the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), and its chronic inability to overcome them.
Six of ISRO’s 21 scheduled rocket launches since 1979 have been unsuccessful. This 29 percent failure rate certainly does not match the performance of the European Ariane rocket programme, with its five percent failure rate. (Russian and American launch failure rates are under half the Indian level.) But ISRO has shown an upward learning curve and a rising competence level. It’s likely to bounce back although it may not rise to First World standards.
However, DRDO remains plagued by incompetence, inefficiency and a hyper-bureaucratic, extremely secretive culture. It has shown few signs of willingness or ability to learn from its past mistakes. This is true not just of its missile programmes, but all its major weapons systems.
|
|
White Elephant? An Agni II missile being displayed on Army Day in
New Delhi
AP Photo
|
|
DRDO typically succeeds only while adapting or copying an already existing design, not developing a new one
DRDO typically succeeds — to a limited extent — only while adapting or copying an already existing technology or design, not developing a new one. Its first missile-development programme was launched in the 1970s, but had to be abandoned. “Project Valiant”, an ambitious attempt to develop a 1,500 km-range ballistic missile, was a total failure. But “Project Devil” partially succeeded in “reverse-engineering” the Soviet sa-2 surface-to-air missile. This spawned the rather primitive liquid-fuel Prithvi missile with a 150-250 km-range after the government launched the Integrated Guided Missile Development Programme (IGMDP) to develop a family of strategic and tactical missiles in 1983.
The Prithvi was first tested as early as 1988. It has since undergone numerous test-flights and has been in serial production. But it is hazardous to handle because of its corrosive propellant. And the armed forces are reluctant to buy/use it.
The Agni programme, launched in 1983, essentially borrowed the slv-3 rocket from ISRO and put a Prithvi on top of it. After just three test-flights, the government declared that the Agni was only a “technology-demonstrator”, not a missile slated for production. There were no Agni test-flights between 1994 and 1999. Then suddenly, between April 1999 and August 2004, DRDO conducted three successful developmental flight-tests of a new missile, the Agni-II, all-solid-fuelled and with a range of 2,000-2,500 km.
Strangely, Agni-II came before Agni-I, which was test-flown in January 2002 and has undergone three tests.
Usually, the big powers put a missile through 12 to 20 tests before declaring them “developed” or “ready for serial production”. But Agni-II and -I were so declared after just three tests each — without a serious evaluation of their accuracy and reliability.
Reliability is all-important in missiles, especially those carrying nuclear warheads. You don’t want mass-destruction weapons falling off on populated areas by accident. That’s why missiles are tested under varying, trying conditions. DRDO is cavalier about such matters.
Agni-III is supposed to give India an effective nuclear deterrent against China because it can reach deep into the mainland and hit Beijing and Shanghai. The missile has been under development since early 1999. Its design is all-new. Its first test-flight was originally scheduled for late 2003, but was postponed to 2004 and then again till last Sunday.
|
ISRO has shown an upward learning curve and a rising competence level, and is likely to bounce back
The generally accepted reason for the delays is “political”: India’s fear that a test-flight would annoy the United States at the time of the Congressional ratification of the nuclear deal. But there’s no denying that DRDO takes a long, long time to develop an all-new design, not a mix-and-match one. The causes of the crash are not yet known. They may well lie in basic design, besides malfunction of guidance systems or the propellant.
Whatever the causes, the failure is a major setback to the IGMDP. It means a direct loss of Rs 200 crore, the missile’s cost, which is probably of the same order as the GSLV-F02’s, plus the costs of development, redesign, additional personnel etc.
No major DRDO project has been an unqualified success. None has ever been completed on time or without huge cost overruns. Consider the three biggest projects: developing a Main Battle Tank (MBT), a nuclear-powered submarine, and an advanced Light Combat Aircraft (LCA). The MBT project was launched in 1974. But the tank has failed to meet service-requirement tests. It is reportedly too heavy and undependable to be used in combat. The Indian Army prefers Russian tanks and says it will use MBTs for training, not operations. The nuclear submarine project, launched 31 years ago, is not yet finished despite an estimated Rs 3,000 crore spent on it. The reactor is apparently ready, but not tested with the vessel’s hull. The LCA project, launched in 1983, is still in the doldrums: the DRDO has failed to develop the right engine. Even with an imported engine, the plane is unlikely to enter service anytime soon.
The primary reason for these shocking instances of underperformance and ineptitude is lack of public accountability and DRDO’s oversight. The more we coddle it, and lionise people like APJ Abdul Kalam, the less will we promote accountability. However, there is a bright side to the Agni-III’s failure. The flight-test was cleared by the US chiefs of staff chairman Peter Pace — a clear case of Washington recruiting India as a countervailing force to China. Agni-III’s success would have almost certainly precipitated a Sino-India arms race, centred on missiles. Such an arms race would be detrimental for India not just because it would affect the current process of reconciliation with China, but because it would seriously destabilise regional security. The Agni-III’s failure is a good time to explore peace with China through non-military, non-missile means.
Source
Agni test: Recurring failures worry all
First Published : 26 Nov 2009 03:55:00 AM IST
Last Updated : 26 Nov 2009 09:31:24 AM IST
BALASORE: The intelligentsia is surprised at the recurring failure of Agni series of missiles touted as trusted weaponry in Indian missile arsenal. Within last 20 years since the beginning of Agni’s developmental trials, the missile has failed four times to meet many of the mission parameters which has also left the DRDO scientists worried.
More importantly, nuclear-capable 2000-km plus range Agni-II missile has failed to deliver desired results consecutively twice within past six months during the ‘trainer user trials’. What has become a worry is that the debacle has happened at the deployment stage, five years after the induction of the missile in the armed forces.
“It is definitely a shocker for the DRDO. I think they should be more careful and sure before going for user trials of missiles like Agni from which we expect a lot. Besides, the users should also attend more number of trials and be more confident on technical grounds before they take the missiles for use,” said Major General (retd) R K Sahu.
Sources said so far the three variants of Agni - Agni-I, Agni-II and Agni-III – having strike range of 700 km, 2000 km and 3500 km respectively have been tested 15 times. While the second test of Agni-I from ITR at Chandipur-on-Sea on May 29, 1992 had failed, the maiden test of much-hyped Agni-III from Wheeler Island on July 9, 2006 failed to meet mission parameters. And now comes the two consecutive failures of the Agni-II.
There may be some misses and hits but when the average misses are more than the average hits it becomes disturbing, said an expert. Definitely it is not a matter to rejoice on both in technological field as well as in the areas of warfare, he said.
As DRDO, the agency which is solely responsible for the development, has not come out with any credible explanations on these failures, the people of the country are perturbed over the outcome of the integrated missile development programme which is the brainchild of the then chief of DRDO and former president APJ Abdul Kalam.
“Crores of rupees are being spent on the missile programmes. It is high time the government took cognizance of the matter else it will be too late to cry over the split milk. The DRDO should come out with facts as to where lay the faults as it relates to the country’s security and tax-payers money,” said Jayanta Das, president of a citizens’ forum.
Defence analysts are of the view that something tangible needs to be done to stem the rot or else it would be too late to maintain the territorial integrity of our country.
Source: Express News Service
|